Download to read offline
Nicky shree shrestha
- 1. Extreme Weather Eventsin Nepal: Trends and Projections Nicky Shree Shrestha The Small Earth Nepal, Kathmandu University Piyush Dahal The Small Earth Nepal
- 2.
- 3.
- 4. Devastating Natural Disasters CLIMATOLOGICALNON-CLIMATOLOGICAL Distribution of Natural Disasters of Nepal AVALANCHE COLD WAVE DROUGHT FAMINE FLOOD FOREST FIRE FROST HAIL STORM HEAT WAVE LANDSLIDE RAINS SNOW STORM STORM STRONG WIND THUNDERSTORM Distribution of Major Climatological Disasters of Nepal
- 5. Looking at thepast climate extremes
- 6. Looking at thepast climate extremes
- 7. Looking at thepast climate extremes
- 8. Looking at thepast climate extremes
- 9. • Catchment area-32104 km2 •12 districts (entire) and 7 (partial) • Altitude-88 to 8148 masl • Mean annual temperature-3.1 to 30.9OC. • 16% area is covered by snow and ice and water bodies. • Around 40% of the is covered by agricultural land. A Case Study of the Gandaki River Basin, Nepal
- 10. • DHM, Governmentof Nepal. • Temperature -5 stations • Precipitation-20 stations • Data sets from year 1981 to 2012 (above 30 years). Data Sources
- 11. Station No. Altitude (m) SU25 TXxTXn TNn TNx TX10P TX90P TN10P TN90P 601 2744 -0.225 -0.027 0 0.137 0.06 0.106 -0.003 -0.338 0.251 604 2566 0.003 -0.009 0.005 -0.034 -0.007 -0.175 0.321 0.046 -0.142 906 868 0.662 0.016 0.072 0.005 -0.057 -0.406 0.389 -0.031 -0.006 1007 474 0.324 0.020 0.041 0.102 0.03 -0.222 0.169 -0.565 0.393 1038 1085 0.416 -0.034 -0.051 0.012 0.044 -0.153 0.016 -0.381 0.155 Average 0.236 -0.007 0.013 0.044 0.014 -0.170 0.178 -0.254 0.130 No. of Stations with positive trend 4 2 4 4 3 1 4 1 3 No. of Stations with negative trend 1 3 1 1 2 4 1 4 2 Station No. Altitude (m) WSDI CSDI DTR TMAX Mean TMIN Mean TR15 TR20 601 2744 0.184 -0.246 -0.054 -0.004 0.051 0.246 0 604 2566 0.525 -0.524 0.044 0.031 -0.018 -0.065 0 906 868 0.33 0.438 0.051 0.057 0.007 0.496 -0.077 1007 474 0.326 -0.97 -0.037 0.019 0.054 1.899 0 1038 1085 -0.2 -0.463 -0.017 0.015 0.033 0.449 0.994 Average 0.233 -0.353 -0.0026 0.0236 0.0254 0.605 0.1834 No. of Stations with positive trend 4 1 2 4 4 4 4 No. of Stations with negative trend 1 4 3 1 1 1 1 Temperature Indices
- 12. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Elevation(m) Percentage of days/year Cool Nights Warm Nights 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Elevation(m) Percentage of days/year Cool Days Warm Days Trend in cool and warm nights with elevation Trend in cool and warm days with elevation Temperature Indices
- 13. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 -1.5 -1 -0.50 0.5 1 Elevation(m) Annual count (days)/year CSDI WSDI 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Elevation(m) Annual count (days)/year SU25 Trend in CSDI and WSDI with elevation Trend in summer days (SU25) with elevation Temperature Indices
- 14. Station No. CDD CWDPRCPTOT R10 mm R20 mm R50 mm R95p R99p RX1day RX5day SDII 613 0.931 -0.116 0.504 0.06 -0.031 -0.069 -4.02 1.281 0.503 -0.44 -0.027 614 0.368 0.104 -5.013 -0.056 -0.168 -0.059 -3.595 0.397 0.041 0.041 -0.064 701 1.154 0.033 -15.815 -0.529 -0.329 -0.103 -1.662 3.311 0.808 -0.4 -0.101 704 1.718 -0.13 -0.211 -0.173 -0.014 0.049 4.525 1.467 -0.221 2.554 0.242 725 1.093 -0.047 -5.974 -0.262 -0.113 -0.016 1.121 1.495 0.546 -0.513 0.029 802 0.892 -0.232 -0.177 -0.08 0.087 -0.026 -0.727 -3.61 -0.849 -1.121 0.017 805 1.538 0.114 10.022 -0.086 0.01 0.137 13.435 6.341 1.292 2.189 0.045 807 1.245 -0.071 10.469 0.252 0.181 0.158 9.87 0.504 0.691 2.083 0.215 808 0.628 0.237 -3.71 -0.407 0.017 0.008 0.885 2.623 0.296 0.101 -0.051 810 1.29 0.083 -8.5 -0.1 -0.12 -0.095 -4.873 -2.769 -1.807 -3.241 -0.172 814 0.431 0.802 7.61 -0.038 0.032 0.079 11.601 5.859 -0.469 -1.343 0.112 815 0.941 0.066 -10.275 -0.006 -0.212 -0.14 -1.474 0.558 0.208 1.07 -0.096 824 0.594 -0.284 2.456 -0.079 0.22 0.085 3.365 -1.925 0.106 -0.198 0.074 903 1.373 -0.261 5.449 -0.249 0.025 0.093 10.357 4.743 1.596 2.142 0.069 904 1.749 -0.293 -3.698 -0.296 -0.079 0.063 5.292 1.258 0.292 2.446 0.075 906 0.588 -0.096 5.082 0.015 -0.054 0.076 10.458 4.273 1.203 3.471 0.109 920 1.222 -0.511 -5.821 -0.359 -0.047 0.066 3.191 -0.256 -0.721 -0.211 0.124 1007 2.808 0.351 -14.923 -0.25 -0.275 -0.147 -9.623 -0.855 -0.584 -1.106 -0.151 1038 0.45 -0.037 5.366 0.254 0.137 0.027 0.519 -2.744 -1.1 -0.168 0.017 1054 2.059 -0.821 -13.247 -0.562 -0.009 0.001 2.915 7.208 -0.317 -0.955 -0.014 Average 1.154 -0.056 -2.0203 -0.14755 -0.0371 0.00935 2.578 1.45795 0.0757 0.32005 0.0226 Stations with positive trend 20 8 8 3 8 12 13 14 12 9 12 Stations with negative trend 0 12 12 17 12 8 7 6 8 11 8 Precipitation Indices
- 15. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -6 -4 -20 2 4 6 8 Elevation(m) Trend (mm/year) R99p R99p 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 Elevation(m) Trend (mm/year) R10 mm R10 Trend in R99P (extremely wet days) with elevation Trend in R10 (No. of heavy precipitation days) with elevation Precipitation Indices
- 16. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -20 -15 -10-5 0 5 10 15 Elevation(m) Trend (mm/year) PRCPTOT PRCPTOT 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Elevation(m) Trend (mm/year) CDD CDD Trend in CDD with elevation Trend in PRCPTOT (wet day precipitation) with elevation Precipitation Indices
- 17. Future projection ofextremes events Future (2041-2071) projection of change (%) in Consecutive dry days with baseline 1970-1999
- 18. Trend in CDDwith elevation Future projection of extremes events Future (2041-2071) projection of change (%) in wet days index with baseline 1970-1999
- 19. Future projection ofextremes events Future (2041-2071) projection of change (%) in highest one day rainfall with baseline 1970-1999
- 20. Trend in CDDwith elevation Future projection of extremes events Future (2041-2071) projection of change (%) in consecutive wet days with baseline 1970-1999
- 21. Conclusion Warming trend oftemperature. No distinct trends of precipitation but the extreme precipitation events are increasing. Consecutive dry days are increasing and are more pronounced in the higher altitude. In future, the wet days index is projected to increase in the lowland Terai but decrease in the higher altitude.
- 22. Acknowledgement This study isa part of research project “Climate Change Adaptation for Livestock Smallholders in Gandaki River Basin Nepal” and is supported by USAID Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Collaborative Research on Adapting Livestock Systems to Climate Change.
- 23.