This document discusses climate change impacts on food security in the Himalayan region. It notes that global food production may decline 3-16% by 2080 due to climate change, with South Asia facing a 30% decline. The Himalayan region is highly vulnerable due to its dense population, underdevelopment, subsistence livelihoods, and poor infrastructure. The document presents observations from Uttarakhand, India that show increases in extreme weather events, declines in agricultural production and irrigation potential, and growing food insecurity in higher altitude areas. It argues for integrated watershed management and climate change adaptation approaches to enhance resource conservation, livelihoods, food security and adaptive governance.

1. Climate Change and its
Impacts on Food and Security
in Himalaya:
Responses and Adaptation
Prakash Tiwari
Professor of Geography
Kumaon University Nainital
Email: pctiwari@yahoo.com/pctiwari@gmail.com

2.  Global food production may decline up-to 3%-16% by 2080 due to
climate change
 South Asia is expected to face decline in agricultural output up to the
extent of 30% by 2080
 Mountains communities, particularly in developing countries are
highly vulnerable to food insecurity
 Largest proportion of food insecure population live in mountains in
developing countries
 Himalaya being densely populated and underdeveloped, and
characterized by subsistence economy and poor infrastructure is
highly vulnerable to food insecurity
Food Security Scenarios:
FAO Perspective

3.  Densely Populated
 Underdeveloped
 Livelihood Constraints
 Subsistence Economy
 Poverty
 Rapid Urbanization
 Resource Exploitation
 Land Use Dynamics
Himalaya:
The Most Vulnerable Mountain Ecosystem
Natural
Vulnerability
Anthropogenic
Vulnerability
 Young Mountains
 Geo-tectonically Alive
 High Altitude
 Steep Slopes
 High Drainage Density

4. Temperature
Variations
Increased Rainfall
Variability
Variability in Rainy
Days
Increase in Foggy
Conditions
Increase in Frosty
Conditions
Erratic Rainfall
Increase in Extreme
Weather Events
Forest and
Habitat Loss
Biodiversity Loss
Hydrological
Disruptions
Drying of Springs
Drying of
Streams
Reduced Water
Availability
Droughts
Slope Failure
and Landslides
Debris
Mud Flow
Riverbeds
Siltation
Flash Floods
Reduced Irrigation
Potential
Decline in Food
Productivity
Forest Fires
Loss of Traditional
Livelihood
Frequent Crop
Failures
Climate Change
Aspects
Ecosystem
Impacts
Climate Change Impacts: Triggering Risks
Gender
Implications
Outmigration
Natural
Risks
Socio-economic
Impacts
Health Risks
Glacier Melting
GLOF

5.  Food Quality
 Food Habits
 Consumption
Food
Availability
Food
Access
Food
Stability
Food
Utilization
 Local Production
 Food Import
 Food Stock
 Weather Variability
 Price Fluctuations
 Food Policy
 Purchasing Power
 Infrastructure
 Food Distribution
Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at
all times, have physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary
needs and food preference for an active and healthy life
Food Security: FAO Perspective

6. Parameters Status
Total Area 107.94 Sq km
Total Population 16080 persons
Male Literacy 51%
Female Literacy 45%
Land Holdings Less than 1ha More than 90 %
Per Capita Agricultural Land 00.17 ha/person
Cultivated Land (% of Total Area) 19%
Irrigated Land (%) 11%
Households Below Poverty Line 41%
Some Empirical Observations:
Kosi Headwater
Km
0 3015
R. Kosi
Km
0 200100
I N I AD
New Delhi
UttrakhandDehradun
Legend
Kosi Headwater
Haridwar
Pauri
Bageswar
Uttarkashi
Chamoli
Pithauragarg
Champawat
Almora
Nainital
Tehri Alaknanda R.
K
ali R
.
KosiR.
Pindar R.
Dehradun
T T
GangaR.
Tauns
R
.
YamunaR.
Gomukh
Bhagirathi R.
Karn Prayag
DholiR.
MandakiniR.
Rudra Prayag
Yamunotri
Gangotri
Dev Prayag
A R A
K
H A
N
D
NEPAL
CHINA
Ganga R.
Ramganga R.
US Nagar
U
UTTARAKHAND LOCATION MAP

7. Understanding Vulnerability of Food System
to Climate Change in Uttarakhand Himalaya
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
Impact on
Food
System
Degree of climate
variability and
change that Agro-
ecosystem
experiences:
Erratic Rainfall;
Droughts; Flash
Floods; Temperature
Rise; Frosting;
Hailstorm
Sensitivity to
climate Exposures:
Rain-fed Agriculture;
Poor Soils, Steep
Slopes; Traditional
Farming; Small Land
Holdings; Lack of
Extension Services;
Poverty
Ability to manage
negative impacts of
climate change and
take advantage of any
opportunities :
Information;
Technology; Literacy;
Livelihood Options;
Optimal Resource
Utilization
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Vulnerability is susceptibility of a system to disturbances and loss, determined
by exposure to impacts, sensitivity to perturbations, and the capacity to adapt

8. Years Rainfall (in
mm)
Number of
Rainy Days
Days of High
Intensity
Rainfall
Incidences of
Droughts
Incidences of
Flash Floods
Occurrence of
Landslides
2001 2100 61 04 02 21 14
2002 2125 55 04 00 11 11
2003 2010 51 03 01 11 27
2004 2000 50 07 05 09 31
2005 1915 50 09 09 10 35
2006 1870 51 11 09 17 55
2007 1700 52 14 11 24 55
2008 2370 51 15 17 27 61
2009 1635 55 14 21 35 65
2010 2570 61 17 27 47 77
2011 1610 51 21 31 55 76
2012 1605 51 07 30 07 21
2013 2455 21 25 05 57 77
Average 1997 51 12 13 25 46
Observed Rainfall Variability and Extreme Weather Events:
Observations from Uttarakhand State (2001 – 2013)

9. Years Loss of
Agricultural
Land (ha)
Irrigation
Channels
Disrupted (km)
Decline
in Agricultural
Production (%)
Road Network
Damaged
(km)
Food Import and
Supply Disrupted
(%)
2001 366 710 11 340 15
2002 350 700 14 347 17
2003 379 770 14 353 17
2004 425 690 07 302 12
2005 480 690 08 300 11
2006 475 711 17 370 19
2007 490 750 16 415 23
2008 500 800 18 430 17
2009 610 825 21 477 21
2010 755 980 25 557 37
2011 725 965 25 2711 35
2012 737 880 25 2175 35
2013 1157 1565 39 4579 67
Total 7449 11036 18 13356 25
Extreme Weather Events and Vulnerability of Mountain Agricultural
System: Observations from Uttarakhand State (2001 – 2013)

10. Altitudinal
Range
(Metres)
Number
of
Villages
Villages
currently
facing
water
scarcity
Irrigated
Agricultural
Land (ha)
Decline in
Irrigated
Land
1981 2012 ha %
Below 1500 19 13 285 245 40 14
1500 – 1800 28 14 107 89 18 17
1800 – 2200 11 8 81 64 17 21
Above 2200 04 2 15 12 3 20
Total 62 38 488 410 78 16
Altitudinal
Range
(Metres)
Number
of
Villages
Agricultural
Production
(Kg/Ha/Year)
Decline in
Agricultural
Production
1981 2012 (Kg/Ha) %
Below 1500 19 755 566 189 25
1500 – 1800 28 591 396 195 33
1800 – 2200 11 404 327 77 19
Above 2200 04 250 190 60 24
Total/Average 62 500 375 125 25
Irrigation Potential, Food Production and Food Deficit
Situations: Illustrations from Kosi Headwater
Altitudinal
Range
(Metres)
Food
Production
(Tonnes/Year)
Food
Demand
(Tonnes/Year)
Food Deficit
Tonnes/
Year
%
Below 1500 531 921 390 42
1500 – 1800 234 1115 881 79
1800– 2200 192 630 438 70
Above 2200 54 228 174 76
Total 1011 2894 1883 65
Altitudinal
Range
(Metres)
Food
Insecure
Families
% Food
Insecure
Families
Food
Insecure
Population
% Food
Insecure
Population
Below 1500 531 15 2655 21
1500 – 1800 234 14 2771 19
1800– 2200 192 19 1795 27
Above 2200 54 27 759 25
Total 1011 19 7980 23
Decrease in Irrigation Potential Decline in Agricultural Production
Annual Food Deficit Situations Vulnerability to Food Insecurity

11. Livelihood and Food Security in Uttarakhand Himalaya:
Reflections of Observations
Food Availability Food Access
%FoodAvailability
%Population
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Micro-
watershed
Number
of
Villages
Total
Population
Persons Engaged
in Traditional
Livelihood Sectors
(in 2001)
Persons Engaged
in Traditional
Livelihood
Sectors
(in 2013)
Total Decline
in Rural Livelihood
(2001-2013)
% Decline in
Rural Livelihood
(2001-2013)
Kosi Headwater 24 22085 6747 4437 2310 34.0

12. Vulnerability to Food Insecurity
Kosi Headwater
Food Security Situation
(Population Vulnerable to Food Insecurity)
Above 25% Population
15-20%
10-15%
Below 10%
Total Villages: 62

13.  Resource Conservation
 Livelihood Improvement
 Income Generation
 Poverty Reduction
 Women Empowerment
 Traditional Knowledge
 Strengthening Institutions
 Governance
 Disaster Risk Reduction
 Social Development
 Ecosystem Management
 Water Security
 Livelihood Security
 Food Security
 Poverty Reduction
 Women Empowerment
 Traditional Knowledge
 Strengthening Institutions
 Governance
 Disaster Reduction
 Social Development
Water Management
Livelihood
Diversification
Improving Food
Production
Income Generation
Gender Sensitization
Participation
Institutions
Governance
Disaster Management
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Watershed
Management: The Complementariness of Key Components
IntegratedWatershedManagement
ClimateChangeAdaptation
Adaptive Watershed Governance: Connecting Dots

14. Integrated Climate Change Adaptation Governance
Social Components
Water Conservation
Integrated Governance Framework
Forest Conservation
Biodiversity Conservation
Resources, Implementation
and Monitoring
Concept,
Decision, Planning
Economic Aspects
Livelihood Improvement
Poverty Reduction
Economic Growth
Scientists, People,
Public and Private Institutions and others
Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction, Sustainable Development
Land and Soil Conservation
Natural Parameters
Natural Scientists,
People, Institutions
Economists ,
People, Institutions
Components
Social Scientists,
People, Institutions
Resources Access and
Equity, Gender Equality,
Food Security, Traditional
Knowledge, Institutions
Education, Sanitation,
Hygiene, Health
People, Public, Private Institutions, NGOs, CSOs
and Range of other Institutions
Governance
Knowledge
and Expertise
Moving Ahead

15. Conservation Region
Fodder & Tea Farming
Horticulture & Fodder
Fuel wood, Fodder & Soil Conservation
Fuel wood, Fodder & Water Conservation
Fuel wood, Fodder & Medicinal Plants
Fuel wood, Tea Farming & Soil Conservation
Fuel wood, Tea Farming & Water Conservation
Fuel wood, Tea Farming & Medicinal Plants
Fuel wood, Water Conservation & Horticulture
Fuel wood, Horticulture & Tea Farming
Soil Conservation & Medicinal Plants
Tea Framing & Soil Conservation
Tea Farming & Medicinal Plants
Water Conservation & Medicinal Plants
Conservation Region
Source: Generated from Research
New Delhi
Kosi Headwater
Integrated Climate Change Adaptation and Rural Livelihood
Governance Framework
Conservation Region

16.  This clearly indicates traditional agriculture is not capable of generating
adequate surplus particularly keeping in view rapid depletion of natural
resources and the impending threat of climate change
 The situation therefore calls for looking beyond the traditional
agricultural system and generation of rural employment opportunities in
off-farm and non-traditional sectors
 Need to realize the ecological social and economic significance of
Himalayan agriculture, and this would need policy Transformation
 Climate services based on precise hydro-meteorological information
 Agro-climatic Zonation and Agricultural Land Use Planning
 Strengthening Institutional framework with Improved Articulation and
Access
Conclusions: The Way Forward

17. Thanks for Your Kind Attention