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Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Hydropower Systems in the Italian ...pietro richelli
In this study we assess the impact of climate change on the hydro- logical cycle of an Alpine catchment and on the management of hy- dropower systems. We apply the traditional climate change impact study approach, known in the literature as “scenario-based” approach, to the case study of Lake Como catchment. The “scenario-based” ap- proach consists in employing a modelling chain, which comprises the definition of Green House Gases emission scenarios, the simulation of climate models and hydrological models, and the simulation of the impact on water resources.
We take into account an ensemble of climate scenarios, comprising two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) and five Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). The analysis of the climate scenarios on the domain of inter- est shows an increase in temperature and a seasonal shift in precip- itation, causing drier summers and more rainy winters. We apply a statistical downscaling to the climate scenarios in order to match the adequate spatial resolution needed for hydrological modelling. We adopt Topkapi-ETH, a physically-based and fully distributed hydro- logical model, to reproduce the response of the catchment hydrology to climate change. The employment of a spatially distributed model is due to the possibility of assessing the impact of climate change on different areas of the catchment. Moreover, Topkapi-ETH allows to simulate anthropogenic infrastructures such as reservoirs and river diversions, which are widely present in the Lake Como catchment. The simulation results over the XXI century scenario show a seasonal shift in the hydrological cycle, with lower flow in summer, higher flow in winter, and an earlier snowmelt peak. This results in different patterns of storage building in the Alpine hydropower reservoirs. Finally, we analyze the uncertainty on hydro-climatic variables asso- ciated to climate modelling. Results show that the uncertainty related to the choice of the GCM is the most critical, but comparable to the one of the RCM. The choice of the RCP is generally less crucial for short lead times, but it increases in relative terms for longer lead times.
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Estimating water used by vegetated areas is very important for water resources management and water rights. Traditionally the amount of water delivered to an area is calculated by installing some measuring device (flumes, weirs, flow meters, etc.). The alternative approach presented here estimates the actual water use in a vegetated areas based on ground surface energy balance concept using the ReSET model (Remote Sensing of ET – ReSET developed by IDS group in Colorado state university) that uses satellite and Arial imagery with visible and thermal bands along with weather data to estimate daily actual crop Evapotranspiration (ET) for vegetated areas. Surface energy balance models have been proven to be a robust approach for estimating vegetation evapotranspiration. One of the main limitations of wider application of these models in water resources and irrigation management is the requirement of extensive back ground in surface energy modeling. This presentation shows the development and the application of an ArcGIS toolbox that runs an automated version of the ReSET model. The tool is compatible with NASA/USGS Landsat Legacy Project. The presented ArcGIS tool automates the model in all stages and requires minimum interference from user. The tool presented accommodates both basic and advanced users. The results using the tool were tested and validated using results from manual ReSET model runs.
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This the presentation I gave for my thesis defense. It\'s entitled "Using bioclimatic envelope modelling to incorporate spatial and temporal dynamics of climate change into conservation planning".
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Willie Nelson is a name that resonates within the world of music and entertainment. Known for his unique voice, and masterful guitar skills. and an extraordinary career spanning several decades. Nelson has become a legend in the country music scene. But, his influence extends far beyond the realm of music. with ventures in acting, writing, activism, and business. This comprehensive article delves into Willie Nelson net worth. exploring the various facets of his career that have contributed to his large fortune.
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Introduction
Willie Nelson net worth is a testament to his enduring influence and success in many fields. Born on April 29, 1933, in Abbott, Texas. Nelson's journey from a humble beginning to becoming one of the most iconic figures in American music is nothing short of inspirational. His net worth, which estimated to be around $25 million as of 2024. reflects a career that is as diverse as it is prolific.
Early Life and Musical Beginnings
Humble Origins
Willie Hugh Nelson was born during the Great Depression. a time of significant economic hardship in the United States. Raised by his grandparents. Nelson found solace and inspiration in music from an early age. His grandmother taught him to play the guitar. setting the stage for what would become an illustrious career.
First Steps in Music
Nelson's initial foray into the music industry was fraught with challenges. He moved to Nashville, Tennessee, to pursue his dreams, but success did not come . Working as a songwriter, Nelson penned hits for other artists. which helped him gain a foothold in the competitive music scene. His songwriting skills contributed to his early earnings. laying the foundation for his net worth.
Rise to Stardom
Breakthrough Albums
The 1970s marked a turning point in Willie Nelson's career. His albums "Shotgun Willie" (1973), "Red Headed Stranger" (1975). and "Stardust" (1978) received critical acclaim and commercial success. These albums not only solidified his position in the country music genre. but also introduced his music to a broader audience. The success of these albums played a crucial role in boosting Willie Nelson net worth.
Iconic Songs
Willie Nelson net worth is also attributed to his extensive catalog of hit songs. Tracks like "Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain," "On the Road Again," and "Always on My Mind" have become timeless classics. These songs have not only earned Nelson large royalties but have also ensured his continued relevance in the music industry.
Acting and Film Career
Hollywood Ventures
In addition to his music career, Willie Nelson has also made a mark in Hollywood. His distinctive personality and on-screen presence have landed him roles in several films and television shows. Notable appearances include roles in "The Electric Horseman" (1979), "Honeysuckle Rose" (1980), and "Barbarosa" (1982). These acting gigs have added a significant amount to Willie Nelson net worth.
Television Appearances
Nelson's char
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Human activities, particularly fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, have significantly altered the natural carbon cycle, leading to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and driving climate change. Understanding the intricacies of the carbon cycle is essential for assessing the impacts of these changes and developing effective mitigation strategies.
By studying the carbon cycle, scientists can identify carbon sources and sinks, measure carbon fluxes, and predict future trends. This knowledge is crucial for crafting policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions, enhancing carbon storage, and promoting sustainable practices. The carbon cycle's interplay with climate systems, ecosystems, and human activities underscores its importance in maintaining a stable and healthy planet.
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Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Comparison of wepp and apex runoff
1. Evaluation of WEPP runoff and erosion
prediction: Goodwater Creek, Field One
Nayereh Ghazanfarpour1
Claire Baffaut2
Clark J. Gantzer1
Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences1
USDA-ARS2
July 2014
1
2. Introduction
Estimating of soil loss by farmers and land managers to target BMP placement.
“ Water Erosion Prediction Project ” WEPP (Lane and Nearing, 1989), physics-based
model for hillslopes / watersheds.
“The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender” APEX (Williams et al., 2008) -
field/watershed scale model.
Apply the WEPP model on the Goodwater Creek Field #1 within the claypan soil
region and compare to APEX results (Mudgal et al. 2010).
2
3. Claypan Soils
• Surface runoff is a main hydrologic process causing excessive losses of
NPS pollutants (Lerch et al. 2005).
• Events immediately following herbicide and/or fertilizer application are
most risky for the downstream area and water bodies.
• Characterized by a subsoil horizon with large increase in clay content
within a short vertical distance in the soil profile.
• During the winter and spring periods, the clays are swollen and causing a
high probability of runoff.
3
4. Objectives
Studies have been done using WEPP model in locations across the U.S.
(Savabi, 1993; Savabi et al., 1995; Zhang et al., 1996; Baffaut et al., 1997; Laflen et al., 2004; Laflen, 2011)
Apply the WEPP model for prediction of runoff and soil loss.
Evaluate WEPP’s prediction compared to the APEX model (Mudgal et al. (2010) in the
same area).
4
6. WEPP model advantages
Spatial and temporal variability in topography, soil properties, cropping and management.
Predicting spatial and temporal distributions of net soil loss or gain for any period of time.
Capable of calculating sediment delivery to the stream channel.
May be used both in single-event and continuous simulation mode.
Results allow land managers and conservationists to delineate CMAs to target locations for
BMP placement.
6
8. 8
Comparing WEPP and APEX
WEPP model APEX model
Rainfall
distribution
Breakpoints/ CLIGEN Daily precipitation
Infiltration Green– Ampt Mein Larson (GAML)
-Modification of the curve number method
-Green– Ampt infiltration equation
Runoff Solution of the kinematic wave equation Curve number (CN) equation
Erosion Steady state sediment continuity equation Modified USLE equation (Williams 1995)
9. Field Area
Field 1, a 35 ha (88 ac) agricultural field
Average annual precipitation 968 mm (38.1 in)
Average annual min and max daily temp. 6.3°C
and 16.9°C
Management in a corn–soybean annual crop
rotation.
Under mulch tillage, maintaining ~30% residue
cover
9
10. Weir and automatic sampler
Weather Station
10
WEPP and user inputs
1- Climate data
2- Management input
* Measured Data
(Inputs acquired from the USDA-ARS)
*
11. A soil survey (1:5,000 scale) in the field during 1997
Soil properties:
Texture, Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), Organic
carbon content, Sum of bases, and pH in each soil
profile
11
WEPP and user inputs: 3-
18. * Reasonably high R2 and NSE values for the simulation of runoff by WEPP (without
calibration process & considering slope of regression).
An important reason: methods in the models; GAML equation for the WEPP model
and curve number for APEX.
Green–Ampt model performs better than SCS (Chahinian et al. 2005; Shen, 2010).
The main criticism of the SCS CN method: The amount of simulated runoff is not
sensitive to rainfall intensity and is independent of event duration or rainfall intensity.
Discussion- Runoff
18
19. 19
Discussion- Sediment yield
The analysis showed that WEPP simulated sediment yield better than APEX.
R2=0.61, NSE= 0.60
One important reason is the different methods used in the models.
WEPP uses the Steady-state sediment continuity equation to predict soil loss.
APEX sediment yield simulation is the MUSLE module. In MUSLE, the rainfall
energy factor is replaced with a runoff factor that allows to simulate individual
storm events.
20. 20
Discussion- WEPP & APEX
It seems difficult to reproduce low sediment yields (<2 T/ha) with WEPP or with APEX.
Uncertainty of the measurement of low sediment yields. The weir always causes some
amount of backwater and slowing down of the flow. When velocities are low (small
events), soil particles tend to precipitate and are not picked up by the sampler. So
simulated values being greater than measured ones (points along the y axis).
In addition, the sampling is proportional to flow, i.e. water samples are collected
according to flow. Thus when flow is low, samples are collected with lower frequency
and there is greater error in the “measured” sediment load.
21. 21
Conclusion & Summary
Reasonably high R2 and NSE values for the simulation of runoff and sediment yield (0.78
and 0.69, and 0.61 and 0.6, respectively) showed that the WEPP model performed
satisfactorily.
Overall predictions of event-based runoff by the WEPP (without calibration) and APEX
(after calibration) models during simulation period were satisfactory.
On the basis of R2 and NSE, the WEPP model provided better predictions than the APEX
model for event- based sediment yield.
22. WEPP performed good: Information have significant implications for management
and could allow land managers and conservationists to delineate critical areas based
on them.
Evaluation and comparison of the WEPP and APEX model will help to select a
model that meet needs based on the amount of available input information and the
capabilities of the personnel in the organizations.
Conclusion & Summary
22
23. Next Goals
Scenario: No tillage with a winter cover crops.
Following soybean in rotation with corn:
1.Overseeded when soybean leaves begin to turn yellow and drop: cereal rye (rye)
2.The cover crop can be controlled in early/mid April.
Following corn in continuous corn or in rotation with soybean:
1.Overseeded: late August/early September one month before harvest - cereal rye (rye)
2.The cover crop can be controlled in early/mid April.
23
24. 24
Acknowledgment
• University of Missouri Experiment Station
• USDA- NRCS, Conservation Innovation Grant
• USDA- ARS, Cropping Systems and Water Quality Research
Nayereh Ghazanfarpour
Phone: 573-823-6830
E-mail: ghazanfarpourn@missouri.edu
Thank you