Ultra-high resolution weather forecasts can improve predictions in mountainous regions like the Himalayas using MetGIS technologies. MetGIS combines weather observations, high-resolution terrain data, and meteorological forecast models to provide more accurate forecasts. The forecasts are computed in Vienna and accessed online, providing predictions updated several times per day for over 200 regions worldwide, including the Himalayas. MetGIS forecasts have been used successfully in Bhutan and India in the Himalayas and can help address challenges like accidents, resource planning, and costs for groups that depend on weather.

1. Ultra-high resolution weather predictions
for the Himalayas,
using MetGIS technologies
Dr. Gerald Spreitzhofer
CEO, MetGIS GmbH, Vienna, Austria
University of Vienna, Inst. for Meteorology

2. Problem: Lack of accuracy over mountains
2. XXXXXXXXX
Conventional Weather Forecasts:

3. • Decrease of risk of accidents
• Planning of resources
• Cost reduction for traffic operation centers
and other weather-dependent institutions
Improved forecasts important for:

4. Approach: MetGIS
Weather observations
High-resolution terrain
databases
(GIS-data)
MetGIS forecasts
Meteorological
forecast models
(Met.-data)
Limit of
conventional
forecasts

5. Santiago de Chile
Boulder, USA
WSL/SLF
Vienna, Austria
Nagaoka, Japan
Mendoza, Argentina
Alden/WELS
DGF, Univ.de Chile
CRICYT/IANIGLA
NIED/NISIS
IMG, Univ.Vienna
Davos, Switzerland
Lima, Peru
SENAMHI
• More then 10 years of international development efforts
• Combines specific expertise in meteorology, snow
science, GIS and software engineering
Base of MetGIS
Moscow, Russia
Mosc. State Univ.

6. Research Projects (basic and applied science):
• Cordination by University of Vienna
Operational application of MetGIS (Vienna):
• Processed by MetGIS GmbH
• First customer 2007, currently users in 10 countries
Cordination of MetGIS Developments

7. Forecasts are computed in
forecast center of MetGIS
in Vienna
Users access the
forecasts via
internet (e.g.
www.metgis.com).
Vienna, Austria
Forecast Access

8. GIS
•Terrain: 30 m resolution
•Vector data: boundaries, rivers,
roads, etc.
Global and Regional Met. Forecast Models
• default models: GFS + WRF
• Plugin of other models possible
MetGIS-Downscaling
•Refinement of meteorological
forecast through interaction with
terrain model
MetGIS Web Interface
(www.metgis.com)
•Customized interface for applied users
•Only most important information
•Operational since 2006/07 winter season,
Forecast Production Process

9. Extensión de los pronósticos
• In realtime: ultra-high-resolution forecasts for 2oo regions
world-wide
• 8 languages (English, French, Spanish, Italian, German,
Slowenian, Russian, Japanese)
MetGIS: World-wide Forecast Coverage
Antarctic Peninsula
Southern Africa
Vinson Massif
Lakes Region
Central Chile/Arg.
Peru
Mexico
Colombia
Alaska
British Colombia
California
Colorado
Bolivia
Eastern Africa
Morocco
Central Europe
UK
Greenland
Scandinavia
Turkey
Caucasus
SE Australia
New Zealand
Iran
Central Asia
Himalaya
Tienshan
Eastern Asia
Kamchatka

10. Bhutan
Western Bhutan, BHU
Sikkim, IND
Mt. Everest, NEP
Nepal
Annapurna, NEP
Uttarakhand, IND
Northern India
Central Tibet
Manali, IND
Srinagar, IND
K2, PAK
Karakoram Highway, PAK
Forecast Coverage: Himalaya
Khumbu, NEP
Nanga
Parbat, PAK

11. Ultra-high-resolution forecast, several updates per
day!
MetGIS Web Interface (www.metgis.com)
Forecast example:

17. www.metgis.com
Example: fresh snow forecast map for Portillo (Chile)
Retrieval of exact forecast values

18. www.metgis.com
4cm: 3hr-Snowfall until Su, 00 UTC
Numerical values are always visible
beside mouse cursor!
MetGIS Web Interface: www.metgis.comFresh Snow Forecast: Portillo (Chile)Fresh Snow Forecast: Portillo (Chile)

19. www.metgis.com
8cm: 3hr-Snwofall until Su, 00 UTC
Retrieval of exact forecast values

20. 13 cm: 3hr-Snwofall until Su, 00 UTC
Retrieval of exact forecast values

21. www.metgis.com
7-day point forecasts always pop up when
clicking the mouse over specific points
Portillo
Point Forecasts

22. www.metgis.com
Portillo
Example of 7-day point forecast

23. Nepal snowstorm disaster
• 14th of October 2014
• More than 1m of snow in high elevations
• Around 50 dead people in the Annapurna and
Dhaulagiri regions
MetGIS Forecast Example

24. Himalaya Precip. Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014

25. Annapurna Snow Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014

26. Annapurna Snow Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014

27. Pronósticos lineales
13 Oct 2014, 03 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La, 13/14 Oct 2014

28. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
13 Oct 2014, 09 UTC

29. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecasts
13 Oct 2014, 12 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La

30. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecast
14 Oct 2014, 12 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La

31. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecast
14 Oct 2014, 15 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La

32. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecast
14 Oct 2014, 21 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La

33. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecast
15 Oct 2014, 00 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La

34. Recent MetGIS Developments
1. APIs (Application Programming Interfaces):
Realtime MetGIS forecast data can be included in
other systems
(no need to use MetGIS Web Interface!)
2. Fully zoomable forecast maps (currently only for the
Alps)

35. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow

36. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow

37. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow

38. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow

39. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
Edelweißspitze (2572m)
12 cm
8 cm
6 cm
2 cm
0,5 cm

40. Station: Schmittenhöhe (1953 m), Austria
Period: winter 2011/2012
Forecast Range (Days) 1 2 3 4 5
% of forecasts with errors < 1 deg 60,9 56,1 43,2 36,7 28,6
% of forecasts with errors < 2 deg 86,2 82,4 75,9 60,1 53,5
% of forecasts with errors < 3 deg 95,8 95,8 91,2 79,9 72,3
Mean absolute error (deg) 1,03 1,15 1,36 1,82 2,32
Correlation coefficient 0,98 0,98 0,97 0,95 0,90
Temperature Forecast Verification

41. Snowfall observed at Los Pelambres Depth of
observed
fresh snow
[cm]
Depth of
fresh snow
forecast by
MetGIS [cm]From (start time) Until (end time)
2009-05-29 09:00 2009-05-30 00:00 9 6
2009-06-28 04:30 2009-06-30 03:00 103 87
2009-07-14 11:00 2009-07-15 07:00 12 21
2009-07-21 07:00 2009-07-22 13:00 55 53
2009-07-31 23:00 2009-08-01 04:00 4 1
2009-08-15 03:00 2009-08-16 04:00 51 89
2009-08-17 19:00 2009-08-19 11:00 44 92
2009-09-06 10:00 2009-09-06 23:30 4 3
2009-09-07 03:30 2009-09-07 12:00 6 5
Most important snowstorms hitting the station
Los Pelambres (Chile) during a winter season.
Fresh Snow Forecast Verification

42. Usuarios
• Traffic operation centers
• Ski and avalanche control centers
• Tourism
• Open-pit mining industry
• State meteorological services
• Private users:
Everybody involved in outdoor
activities (mainly Europe): hikers,
skiers, climbers, bikers, etc.
Typical Users of MetGIS Forcasts

43. • MetGIS used in Himalaya Kingdom of Bhutan since 2011
• Implemented through project of Austrian Devel. Agency
Bhutan: State Meteorological Service
MetGIS training class for
Bhutan meteorologists

44. • MetGIS used by SASE (Snow and Avalanche Study Est.)
since 2010
• Forecasts for Indian Himalayas (including WRF model)
• Drive simulation models of the snow cover.
India: Government of India

45. • MetGIS is a unique forecast system with specific skills
for mountain weather forecasts (most NWS: no
particular experience in this field!)
• World-wide successful application, incl. Himalayas
(India, Bhutan)
Nepal:
• MetGIS fully operational, several updates per day
• MetGIS could be used for several purposes
(operational forecasting and research, driving
hydrological models, etc.)
Summary and Conclusions

46. Thank you
for your
attention!
For more information:
 Visit www.metgis.com
 Himalaya:
www.metgis.com/en/re
gions/himalaya/

47. MetGIS