One Health Approach For CCHF Surveillance In Kazakhstan Andrey UKHAROV

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This document discusses using an electronic integrated disease surveillance system (EIDSS) to forecast Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) outbreak risks in Kazakhstan. EIDSS strengthened disease monitoring within a One Health approach. Analysis of human, vector, and laboratory data from 2007-2011 predicted CCHF risk maps for 2013, which accurately forecasted outbreak risks for 88.9% of historically affected districts. The results demonstrate EIDSS is a reliable tool for CCHF prognosis and risk management that can help decision-making and expand statistical surveillance within a systematic One Health framework.

Health & Medicine

ONE HEALTH APPROACH FOR CCHF
SURVEILLANCE IN KAZAKHTSAN
RESULTS OF USING OPEN SOURCE TOOL
ELECTRONIC INTEGRATED DISEASE SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM
(EIDSS)
OCTOBER 5, 2015
GRF 2015
DAVOS
Aizhan S. Esmagambetova1, Stanislav V. Kazakov2, Alexey V. Burdakov3, Kenes S. Ospanov2, Andrey O. Ukharov3
1 Committee for Consumer Rights Protection of the Ministry of National Economics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana,
Kazakhstan. E-mail: yesmagambetovai@gmail.com
2 Scientific and Practical Center for Sanitary Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring, Almaty, Kazakhstan. E-mail:
kz2kazakov@mail.ru
3 Black & Veatch, Overland Park, KS, USA. E-mail: BurdakovAV@bv.com, Oukharov@bv.com

 Officially recorded in Kazakhstan since the
disease was first officially reported in
modern medicine
 Local enzoonotic cycle involving mammals,
ticks and humans in the southern regions,
considered endemic for CCHF
 Most human cases are associated with
agricultural professions: farming,
shepherding and fruit-picking
 Typical route: tick-bite, although several
cases of contact transmission associated
with caring for sick patients
 Overall case fatality rate of 14.8% for cases
with a documented outcome
CCHFSURVEILLANCEINKAZAKHSTAN
Expanding the current statistics-based approach with forecasting and epidemic risks
management to monitor for potential expansion in known risk areas
CCHF Cases in Kazakhstan 1948-2013
AverageCasesperYear
TotalNumberofCases
2

EIDSS
Electronic Integrated Disease Surveillance System (EIDSS) strengthens and supports
monitoring and prevention of diseases within One World - One Health concept
3

EIDSSDEPLOYMENTSTATUS
As of Sep 2015 over 790 installations in 6 countries with over 300’000 human, veterinary and
vector cases. National surveillance system in Azerbaijan and Georgia
4

DATAENTRYANDANALYSIS
3 groups of indicators available in EIDSS for 2007-2011 years were selected for the
forecasting: population counts, tick infection rates, CCHF human incidence rate.
Human Surveillance Data
Vector Surveillance Data
Laboratory Data
5

PROGNOSISFOR2013
Joint human, vector and laboratory data analysis resulted in generating 12 maps for
historically known CCHF-disadvantaged districts with forecasted risk clusters in 2012
6

FINDINGS:ACTUALSITUATIONIN2013
It was determined that the prognosis for districts with high outbreak risks is accurate for
88.9%, for districts with medium and low risks - 81.3%.
• Prognosis for the CCHF outbreak risk
level prepared in 2012 vs actual
situation in 2013
7

CONCLUSIONSANDNEXTSTEPS
Utilized approach based on EIDSS software provides a reliable tool for prognosis of CCHF
epidemic threats and can be used for management decision-making
• Expanding statistical-based approach with risk
management
• EIDSS provides a vehicle for practical implementation
of One Health
• EIDSS facilitates utilization of systematic approach for
risk management available to epidemiologists from
national to district levels
• Refine set of criteria followed by mounting the
proposed method to other zoonosis
8

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• Defense Threat Reduction Agency
• Committee of State Sanitary and
Epidemiological Surveillance of the Ministry of
Health of Kazakhstan
• Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and
Zoonotic Infections
• Scientific Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological
Expertise and Monitoring
• Black and Veatch
9

OPEN FOR
COLLABORATION
Andrey Ukharov oukharov@bv.com
Alexey Burdakov burdakovav@bv.com
Stanislav Kazakov kz2kazakov@mail.ru
Aizhan Esmagambetova yesmagambetovai@gmail.com

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9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • Defense Threat Reduction Agency • Committee of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance of the Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan • Kazakh Scientific Center of Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections • Scientific Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring • Black and Veatch 9

10. OPEN FOR COLLABORATION Andrey Ukharov oukharov@bv.com Alexey Burdakov burdakovav@bv.com Stanislav Kazakov kz2kazakov@mail.ru Aizhan Esmagambetova yesmagambetovai@gmail.com

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