The design of intelligent systems for analyzing information and predicting the epidemiological trends of the disease is rapidly expanding because of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The COVID-19 datasets provided by Johns Hopkins University were included in the analysis. This dataset contains some missing data that is imputed using the multi-objective particle swarm optimization method. A time series model based on nonlinear autoregressive exogenou (NARX) neural network is proposed to predict the recovered and death COVID-19 cases. This model is trained and evaluated for two modes: predicting the situation of the affected areas for the next day and the next month. After training the model based on the data from January 22 to February 27, 2020, the performance of the proposed model was evaluated in predicting the situation of the areas in the coming two weeks. The error rate was less than 5%. The prediction of the proposed model for April 9, 2020, was compared with the actual data for that day. The absolute percentage error (AE) worldwide was 12%. The lowest mean absolute error (MAE) of the model was for South America and Australia with 3 and 3.3, respectively. In this paper, we have shown that geographical areas with mortality and recovery of COVID-19 cases can be predicted using a neural network-based model.
The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Bangladesh perspectiv...IJECEIAES
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has made a huge pandemic situation in many countries of the world including Bangladesh. If the increase rate of this threat can be forecasted, immediate measures can be taken. This study is an effort to forecast the threat of present pandemic situation using machine learning (ML) forecasting models. Forecasting was done in three categories in the next 30 days range. In our study, multiple linear regression performed best among the other algorithms in all categories with R2 score of 99% for first two categories and 94% for the third category. Ridge regression performed great for the first two categories with R2 scores of 99% each but performed poorly for the third category with R2 score of 43%. Lasso regression performed reasonably well with R2 scores of 97%, 99% and 75% for the three categories. We also used Facebook Prophet to predict 30 days beyond our train data which gave us healthy R2 scores of 92% and 83% for the first two categories but performed poorly for the third category with R2 score of 34%. Also, all the models’ performances were evaluated with a 40- day prediction interval in which multiple linear regression outperformed other algorithms.
This paper presents a time series analysis of a novel coronavirus, COVID-19, discovered in China in December 2019 using intuitionistic fuzzy logic system with neural network learning capability. Fuzzy logic systems are known to be universal approximation tools that can estimate a nonlinear function as closely as possible to the actual values. The main idea in this study is to use intuitionistic fuzzy logic system that enables hesitation and has membership and non-membership functions that are optimized to predict COVID-19 outbreak cases. Intuitionistic fuzzy logic systems are known to provide good results with improved prediction accuracy and are excellent tools for uncertainty modelling. The hesitation-enabled fuzzy logic system is evaluated using COVID-19 pandemic cases for Nigeria, being part of the COVID-19 data for African countries obtained from Kaggle data repository. The hesitation-enabled fuzzy logic model is compared with the classical fuzzy logic system and artificial neural network and shown to offer improved performance in terms of root mean squared error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Intuitionistic fuzzy logic system however incurs a setback in terms of the high computing time compared to the classical fuzzy logic system.
Coronavirus disease situation analysis and prediction using machine learning...IJECEIAES
During a pandemic, early prognostication of patient infected rates can reduce the death by ensuring treatment facility and proper resource allocation. In recent months, the number of death and infected rates has increased more distinguished than before in Bangladesh. The country is struggling to provide moderate medical treatment to many patients. This study distinguishes machine learning models and creates a prediction system to anticipate the infected and death rate for the coming days. Equipping a dataset with data from March 1, 2020, to August 10, 2021, a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model was trained. The data was managed from a trusted government website and concocted manually for training purposes. Several test cases determine the model's accuracy and prediction capability. The comparison between specific models assumes that the MLP model has more reliable prediction capability than the support vector regression (SVR) and linear regression model. The model presents a report about the risky situation and impending coronavirus disease (COVID-19) attack. According to the prediction produced by the model, Bangladesh may suffer another COVID-19 attack, where the number of infected cases can be between 929 to 2443 and death cases between 19 to 57.
Coronavirus disease 2019 detection using deep features learningIJECEIAES
A Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic detection considers a critical and challenging task for the medical practitioner. The coronavirus disease spread so rapidly between people and infected more than one hundred and seventy million people worldwide. For this reason, it is necessary to detect infected people with coronavirus and take action to prevent virus spread. In this study, a COVID-19 classification methodology was adopted to detect infected people using computed tomography (CT) images. Deep learning was applied to recognize COVID-19 infected cases for different patients by employing deep features. This methodology can be beneficial for medical practitioners to diagnose infected patients. The results were based on a new data collection named BasrahDataset that includes different CT scan videos for Iraqi patients. The proposed system gave promised results with a 99% F1-score for detecting COVID-19.
The susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model for long-term identification o...IJECEIAES
The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has spread massively to almost all countries including Indonesia, in just a few months. An important step to overcoming the spread of the COVID-19 is understanding its epidemiology through mathematical modeling intervention. Knowledge of epidemic dynamics patterns is an important part of making timely decisions and preparing hospitals for the outbreak peak. In this study, we developed the susceptible-infected-recovered-dead (SIRD) model, which incorporates the key epidemiological parameters to model and estimate the long-term spread of the COVID-19. The proposed model formulation is data-based analysis using public COVID-19 data from March 2, 2020 to May 15, 2021. Based on numerical analysis, the spread of the pandemic will begin to fade out after November 5, 2021. As a consequence of this virus attack, the cumulative number of infected, recovered, and dead people were estimated at ≈ 3,200,000, ≈ 3,437,000 and ≈ 63,000 people, respectively. Besides, the key epidemiological parameter indicates that the average reproduction number value of COVID-19 in Indonesia is 7.32. The long-term prediction of COVID-19 in Indonesia and its epidemiology can be well described using the SIRD model. The model can be applied in specific regions or cities in understanding the epidemic pattern of COVID-19.
Prediction analysis on the pre and post COVID outbreak assessment using machi...IJICTJOURNAL
In this time of a global urgency where people are losing lives each day in a large number, people are trying to develop ways/technology to solve the challenges of COVID-19. Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) tools have been employed previously as well to the times of pandemic where they have proven their worth by providing reliable results in varied fields this is why ML tools are being used extensively to fight this pandemic as well. This review describes the applications of ML in the post and pre COVID-19 conditions for contact tracing, vaccine development, prediction and diagnosis, risk management, and outbreak predictions to help the healthcare system to work efficiently. This review discusses the ongoing research on the pandemic virus where various ML models have been employed to a certain data set to produce outputs that can be used for risk or outbreak prediction of virus in the population, vaccine development, and contact tracing. Thus, the significance and the contribution of ML against COVID-19 are self-explanatory but what should not be compromised is the quality and accuracy based on which solutions/methods/policies adopted or produced from this analysis which will be implied in the real world to real people.
The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Bangladesh perspectiv...IJECEIAES
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has made a huge pandemic situation in many countries of the world including Bangladesh. If the increase rate of this threat can be forecasted, immediate measures can be taken. This study is an effort to forecast the threat of present pandemic situation using machine learning (ML) forecasting models. Forecasting was done in three categories in the next 30 days range. In our study, multiple linear regression performed best among the other algorithms in all categories with R2 score of 99% for first two categories and 94% for the third category. Ridge regression performed great for the first two categories with R2 scores of 99% each but performed poorly for the third category with R2 score of 43%. Lasso regression performed reasonably well with R2 scores of 97%, 99% and 75% for the three categories. We also used Facebook Prophet to predict 30 days beyond our train data which gave us healthy R2 scores of 92% and 83% for the first two categories but performed poorly for the third category with R2 score of 34%. Also, all the models’ performances were evaluated with a 40- day prediction interval in which multiple linear regression outperformed other algorithms.
This paper presents a time series analysis of a novel coronavirus, COVID-19, discovered in China in December 2019 using intuitionistic fuzzy logic system with neural network learning capability. Fuzzy logic systems are known to be universal approximation tools that can estimate a nonlinear function as closely as possible to the actual values. The main idea in this study is to use intuitionistic fuzzy logic system that enables hesitation and has membership and non-membership functions that are optimized to predict COVID-19 outbreak cases. Intuitionistic fuzzy logic systems are known to provide good results with improved prediction accuracy and are excellent tools for uncertainty modelling. The hesitation-enabled fuzzy logic system is evaluated using COVID-19 pandemic cases for Nigeria, being part of the COVID-19 data for African countries obtained from Kaggle data repository. The hesitation-enabled fuzzy logic model is compared with the classical fuzzy logic system and artificial neural network and shown to offer improved performance in terms of root mean squared error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Intuitionistic fuzzy logic system however incurs a setback in terms of the high computing time compared to the classical fuzzy logic system.
Coronavirus disease situation analysis and prediction using machine learning...IJECEIAES
During a pandemic, early prognostication of patient infected rates can reduce the death by ensuring treatment facility and proper resource allocation. In recent months, the number of death and infected rates has increased more distinguished than before in Bangladesh. The country is struggling to provide moderate medical treatment to many patients. This study distinguishes machine learning models and creates a prediction system to anticipate the infected and death rate for the coming days. Equipping a dataset with data from March 1, 2020, to August 10, 2021, a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model was trained. The data was managed from a trusted government website and concocted manually for training purposes. Several test cases determine the model's accuracy and prediction capability. The comparison between specific models assumes that the MLP model has more reliable prediction capability than the support vector regression (SVR) and linear regression model. The model presents a report about the risky situation and impending coronavirus disease (COVID-19) attack. According to the prediction produced by the model, Bangladesh may suffer another COVID-19 attack, where the number of infected cases can be between 929 to 2443 and death cases between 19 to 57.
Coronavirus disease 2019 detection using deep features learningIJECEIAES
A Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic detection considers a critical and challenging task for the medical practitioner. The coronavirus disease spread so rapidly between people and infected more than one hundred and seventy million people worldwide. For this reason, it is necessary to detect infected people with coronavirus and take action to prevent virus spread. In this study, a COVID-19 classification methodology was adopted to detect infected people using computed tomography (CT) images. Deep learning was applied to recognize COVID-19 infected cases for different patients by employing deep features. This methodology can be beneficial for medical practitioners to diagnose infected patients. The results were based on a new data collection named BasrahDataset that includes different CT scan videos for Iraqi patients. The proposed system gave promised results with a 99% F1-score for detecting COVID-19.
The susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model for long-term identification o...IJECEIAES
The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has spread massively to almost all countries including Indonesia, in just a few months. An important step to overcoming the spread of the COVID-19 is understanding its epidemiology through mathematical modeling intervention. Knowledge of epidemic dynamics patterns is an important part of making timely decisions and preparing hospitals for the outbreak peak. In this study, we developed the susceptible-infected-recovered-dead (SIRD) model, which incorporates the key epidemiological parameters to model and estimate the long-term spread of the COVID-19. The proposed model formulation is data-based analysis using public COVID-19 data from March 2, 2020 to May 15, 2021. Based on numerical analysis, the spread of the pandemic will begin to fade out after November 5, 2021. As a consequence of this virus attack, the cumulative number of infected, recovered, and dead people were estimated at ≈ 3,200,000, ≈ 3,437,000 and ≈ 63,000 people, respectively. Besides, the key epidemiological parameter indicates that the average reproduction number value of COVID-19 in Indonesia is 7.32. The long-term prediction of COVID-19 in Indonesia and its epidemiology can be well described using the SIRD model. The model can be applied in specific regions or cities in understanding the epidemic pattern of COVID-19.
Prediction analysis on the pre and post COVID outbreak assessment using machi...IJICTJOURNAL
In this time of a global urgency where people are losing lives each day in a large number, people are trying to develop ways/technology to solve the challenges of COVID-19. Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) tools have been employed previously as well to the times of pandemic where they have proven their worth by providing reliable results in varied fields this is why ML tools are being used extensively to fight this pandemic as well. This review describes the applications of ML in the post and pre COVID-19 conditions for contact tracing, vaccine development, prediction and diagnosis, risk management, and outbreak predictions to help the healthcare system to work efficiently. This review discusses the ongoing research on the pandemic virus where various ML models have been employed to a certain data set to produce outputs that can be used for risk or outbreak prediction of virus in the population, vaccine development, and contact tracing. Thus, the significance and the contribution of ML against COVID-19 are self-explanatory but what should not be compromised is the quality and accuracy based on which solutions/methods/policies adopted or produced from this analysis which will be implied in the real world to real people.
INSIGHT ABOUT DETECTION, PREDICTION AND WEATHER IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-...ijaia
The world is facing a tough situation due to the catastrophic pandemic caused by novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The number people affected by this virus are increasing exponentially day by day and the number has already crossed 6.4 million. As no vaccine has been discovered yet, the early detection of patients and isolation is the only and most effective way to reduce the spread of the virus. Detecting infected persons from chest X-Ray by using Deep Neural Networks, can be applied as a time and laborsaving solution. In this study, we tried to detect Covid-19 by classification of Covid-19, pneumonia and normal chest X-Rays. We used five different Convolutional Pre-Trained Neural Network models (VGG16,
VGG19, Xception, InceptionV3 and Resnet50) and compared their performance. VGG16 and VGG19 shows precise performance in classification. Both models can classify between three kinds of X-Rays with an accuracy over 92%. Another part of our study was to find the impact of weather factors (temperature, humidity, sun hour and wind speed) on this pandemic using Decision Tree Regressor. We found that temperature, humidity and sun-hour jointly hold 85.88% impact on escalation of Covid-19 and 91.89% impact on death due to Covid-19 where humidity has 8.09% impact on death. We also tried to predict the death of an individual based on age, gender, country, and location due to COVID-19 using the Logistic Regression, which can predict death of an individual with a model accuracy of 94.40%.
Covid 19 Health Prediction using Supervised Learning with Optimizationijtsrd
The assessment of infection is significant for Covid 19 as the antigen pack and RTPCR are imperfect and ought to be better for diagnosing such sickness. Continuous Return Transcription constant talk record polymerase chain . Medical services rehearse incorporate the assortment of different kinds of patient information to assist the doctor with diagnosing the patients wellbeing. This information could be basic side effects, first analysis by a specialist, or an inside and out research facility test. This information is in this manner utilized for examinations simply by a specialist, who thusly utilizes his specific clinical abilities to track down the illness. To group Covid 19 sickness datasets like gentle, center and serious infections, the proposed model uses the idea of controlled machine training and GWO advancement to manage in the event that the patient is impacted or not. Effectiveness investigation is determined and thought about of infection information for the two calculations. The consequences of the reenactments outline the compelling nature and intricacy of the informational index for the reviewing strategies. Contrasted with SVM, the proposed model gives 7.8 percent further developed forecast exactness. The forecast exactness is 8 better than the SVM. This outcome F1 score of 2 is better than an SVM conjecture. Akash Malvi | Nikesh Gupta "Covid-19 Health Prediction using Supervised Learning with Optimization" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-7 | Issue-6 , December 2023, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd61266.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/computer-science/other/61266/covid19-health-prediction-using-supervised-learning-with-optimization/akash-malvi
Susceptible exposed infectious recovered-machine learning for COVID-19 predi...IJECEIAES
Susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) is among the epidemiological models used in forecasting the spread of disease in large populations. SEIR is a fitting model for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread prediction. Somehow, in its original form, SEIR could not measure the impact of lockdowns. So, in the SEIR equations system utilized in this study, a variable was included to evaluate the impact of varying levels of social distance on the transmission of COVID-19. Additionally, we applied artificial intelligence utilizing the deep neural network machine learning (ML) technique. On the initial spread data for Saudi Arabia that were available up to June 25th, 2021, this improved SEIR model was used. The study shows possible infection to around 3.1 million persons without lockdown in Saudi Arabia at the peak of spread, which lasts for about 3 months beginning from the lockdown date (March 21st). On the other hand, the Kingdom's current partial lockdown policy was estimated to cut the estimated number of infections to 0.5 million over nine months. The data shows that stricter lockdowns may successfully flatten the COVID-19 graph curve in Saudi Arabia. We successfully predicted the COVID-19 epidemic's peaks and sizes using our modified deep neural network (DNN) and SEIR model.
Health Risk Prediction Using Support Vector Machine with Gray Wolf Optimizati...ijtsrd
The opinion of disease is important for Covid 19 as the antigen kit and RTPCR are unperfect and should be better for diagnosing such disease. Real Time Return Transcription real time converse transcription - polymerase chain . Healthcare practices include the collection of various sorts of patient data to help the physician diagnose the patients health. These data could be simple symptoms, first diagnosis by a doctor, or an in depth laboratory test. These data are therefore used for analyses only by a doctor, who subsequently uses his particular medical skills to found the ailment. In order to classify Covid 19 disease datasets such mild, middle and severe diseases, the proposed model utilizes the notion of controlled machine education and GWO optimization to regulate if the patient is affecting or not. An efficiency analysis is calculated and compared of disease data for both algorithms. The results of the simulations illustrate the effective nature and complexity of the data set for the grading techniques. Compared to SVM, the suggested model provides 7.8 percent improved prediction accuracy. The prediction accuracy is 8 better than the SVM. This results in an F1 score of 2 percent better than an SVM forecast. Swati Shilpi | Dr. Damodar Prasad Tiwari "Health Risk Prediction Using Support Vector Machine with Gray Wolf Optimization in Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-6 , October 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd46400.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/computer-engineering/46400/health-risk-prediction-using-support-vector-machine-with-gray-wolf-optimization-in-covid19-pandemic-crisis/swati-shilpi
The study aimed to investigate into the impact of a National COVID-19 Health contact tracing and monitoring system for Namibia. The study used qualitative methods as a research strategy. Qualitative data was collected
through zoom meeting and a Google form link was distributed to the participants. The findings of the study revealed
that a total of 18 participants responded to the semi-structured questions of which 38.9% represents male while
female 61.1%. The age group between 18–25 response rate were 22.2%, age group between 26–35 response rate were
55.6%, age group between 36–45 response rate were 16.7% and the age group between 46 and above response rate
was 10% represented in green colour to represent participants who fall in the age group between 46 and above
ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 IN THE UNITED STATES USING MACHINE LEARNINGmlaij
The unprecedented outbreak of COVID-19 also known as the coronavirus has caused a pandemic like none
ever seen before this century. Its impact has been massive on a global level. The deadly virus has
commanded nations around the world to increase their efforts to fight against the spread of the virus after
the stress it has put on resources. With the number of new cases increasing day by day around the world,
the objective of this paper is to contribute towards the analysis of the virus by leveraging machine learning
models to understand its behavior and predict future patterns in the United States (US) based on data
obtained from the COVID-19 Tracking Project.
Analysis of Covid-19 in the United States using Machine Learningmlaij
The unprecedented outbreak of COVID-19 also known as the coronavirus has caused a pandemic like none ever seen before this century. Its impact has been massive on a global level. The deadly virus has commanded nations around the world to increase their efforts to fight against the spread of the virus after the stress it has put on resources. With the number of new cases increasing day by day around the world, the objective of this paper is to contribute towards the analysis of the virus by leveraging machine learning models to understand its behavior and predict future patterns in the United States (US) based on data obtained from the COVID-19 Tracking Project.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a pandemic disease, which has already caused
thousands of causalities and infected several millions of people worldwide. Any technological tool
enabling rapid screening of the COVID-19 infection with high accuracy can be crucially helpful to the
healthcare professionals. The main clinical tool currently in use for the diagnosis of COVID-19 is the
Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), which is expensive, less-sensitive and requires
specialized medical personnel. X-ray imaging is an easily accessible tool that can be an excellent alternative
in the COVID-19 diagnosis. This research was taken to investigate the utility of artificial intelligence (AI)
in the rapid and accurate detection of COVID-19 from chest X-ray images
Modeling and Forecasting the COVID-19 Temporal Spread in Greece: An Explorato...Konstantinos Demertzis
Within the complex framework of anti-COVID-19 health management, where the criteria of diagnostic testing, the availability of public-health resources and services, and the applied anti-COVID-19 policies vary between countries, the reliability and accuracy in the modeling of temporal spread can prove to be effective in the worldwide fight against the disease. This paper applies an exploratory time-series analysis to the evolution of the disease in Greece, which currently suggests a success story of COVID-19 management. The proposed method builds on a recent conceptualization of detecting connective communities in a time-series and develops a novel spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by the community detection in the complex network. Overall, the study contributes to the COVID-19 research by proposing a free of disconnected past-data and reliable framework of forecasting, which can facilitate decision-making and management
of the available health resources.
Comprehensive study: machine learning approaches for COVID-19 diagnosis IJECEIAES
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused a large number of death since has declared as an international pandemic in December 2019, and it is spreading all over the world (more than 200 countries). This situation puts the health organizations in an aberrant demand for urgent needs to develop significant early detection and monitoring smart solutions. Therefore, that new system or solution might be capable to identify COVID-19 quickly and accurately. Nowadays, the science of artificial intelligence (AI), and internet of things (IoT) techniques have an extensive range of applications, it can be initiated a possible solution for early detection and accurate decisions. We believe, combine both of the IoT revolution and machine learning (ML) methods are expected to reshape healthcare treatment strategies to provide smart (diagnosis, treatments, monitoring, and hospitals). This work aims to overview the recent solutions that have been used for early detection, and to provide the researchers a comprehensive summary that contribute to the pandemic control such AI, IoT, cloud, fog, algorithms, and all the dataset and their sources that recently published. In addition, all models, frameworks, monitoring systems, devices, and ideas (in four sections) have been sufficiently presented with all clarifications and justifications. Also, we propose a new vision for early detection based on IoT sensors data entry using 1 million patients-data to verify three proposed methods.
Epidemic Alert System: A Web-based Grassroots ModelIJECEIAES
Most web-based disease surveillance systems that give epidemic alerts are based on very large and unstructured data from various news sources, social media and online queries that are parsed by complex algorithms. This has the tendency to generate results that are so diverse and non-specific. When considered along with the fact that there are no existing standards for mining and analyzing data from the internet, the results or decisions reached based on internet sources have been classified as low-quality. This paper proposes a web-based grassroots epidemic alert system that is based on data collected specifically from primary health centers, hospitals and registered laboratories. It takes a more traditional approach to indicator-based disease surveillance as a step towards standardizing web-based disease surveillance. It makes use of a threshold value that is based on the third quartile (75 th percentile) to determine the need to trigger the alarm for the onset of an epidemic. It also includes, for deeper analysis, demographic information.
Application of Deep Learning for Early Detection of Covid 19 using CT scan Im...ijtsrd
Machine learning has a vital role in Dataset Analysis and Computer Vision field. Troubles range beginning dataset segmentation, dataset check to structure from motion, object recognition and view thoughtful use machine learning technique to investigate in a row starting visual data. The incidence of COVID 19 in strange part of the humanity is a most important suffering intended for every one the managerial unit of personality country. India is as well incompatible this extremely rough mission used for calculating the disease incidence along with have manage its improvement velocity from side to side a numeral of stringent events. During my job this paper on predict the corona virus is contain significance or not hand baggage in continuing region support up as health monitoring systems. The increasing difficulty in healthcare creates not as high class as by a mature resident, punishment in lush executive most significant to harmful possessions resting on mind excellence as well as escalate think about expenses. Accordingly, present be a require designed for elegant decision support systems to facilitate tin can approve clinician’s to generate improved data’s care decision. A talented go forward be in the direction of power the continuing digitization of healthcare with the intention of generate unparalleled amount of medical information stored in Patients Health Records PHRs and pair it through contemporary Machine Learning ML toolset intended for medical decision support, along with concurrently, develop the proof stand of current datasets. The datasets are composed at KAGGLE it is an online datasets used my paper work. The specific classifications algorithms are applied in SVM, NB and supervised learning Decision Tree are used. Today, gigantic measure of information is gathered in clinical databases. These databases may contain significant data embodied in nontrivial connections among manifestations and analyses. Removing such conditions from recorded information is a lot simpler to done by utilizing clinical frameworks. Such information can be utilized in future clinical dynamic. Dr. C. Yesubai Rubhavathi | Diofrin. J | Vishnu Durga. S | Arunachalam. R | Eben Paul Richard. S "Application of Deep Learning for Early Detection of Covid-19 using CT-scan Images" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-7 | Issue-1 , February 2023, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd52792.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/computer-engineering/52792/application-of-deep-learning-for-early-detection-of-covid19-using-ctscan-images/dr-c-yesubai-rubhavathi
Calculating the area of white spots on the lungs of patients with COVID-19 u...IJECEIAES
Coronavirus desease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic that has occurred in the world since 2019. Researchers have carried out various ways in dealing with this disease, starting from the screening stage to the stage of treatment and therapy for COVID-19 patients. As the gateway to the COVID-19 problem, screening has an essential role in a diagnosis that leads to appropriate treatment. In this paper, we will focus on the screening stage using digital image processing techniques, namely in calculating the area of white spots in the lungs of COVID-19 patients. The white patches are an early indication of how badly COVID-19 is attacking the patient. We use XRay Thorax image objects as research data in this paper. Although the current experimental results show that this method has a successful performance of 71.11%, it is pretty promising for further development due to its simplicity.
Enhancing COVID-19 forecasting through deep learning techniques and fine-tuningIJECEIAES
In this study, a comprehensive analysis of classical linear regression forecasting models and deep learning techniques for predicting coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic data was presented. Among the deep learning models, the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network demonstrated superior performance, delivering accurate predictions with minimal errors. The neural network effectively addressed overfitting and underfitting issues through rigorous tuning. However, the diversity of countries and dataset attributes posed challenges in achieving universally optimal predictions. The current study explored the application of the LSTM in predicting healthcare resource demand and optimizing hospital management to provide potential solutions for overcrowding and cost reduction. The results showed the importance of leveraging advanced deep learning techniques for improved COVID-19 forecasting and extending the application of the models to address broader healthcare challenges beyond the pandemic. To further enhance the model performance, future work needed to incorporate additional attributes, such as vaccination rates and immune percentages.
Bibliometric analysis highlighting the role of women in addressing climate ch...IJECEIAES
Fossil fuel consumption increased quickly, contributing to climate change
that is evident in unusual flooding and draughts, and global warming. Over
the past ten years, women's involvement in society has grown dramatically,
and they succeeded in playing a noticeable role in reducing climate change.
A bibliometric analysis of data from the last ten years has been carried out to
examine the role of women in addressing the climate change. The analysis's
findings discussed the relevant to the sustainable development goals (SDGs),
particularly SDG 7 and SDG 13. The results considered contributions made
by women in the various sectors while taking geographic dispersion into
account. The bibliometric analysis delves into topics including women's
leadership in environmental groups, their involvement in policymaking, their
contributions to sustainable development projects, and the influence of
gender diversity on attempts to mitigate climate change. This study's results
highlight how women have influenced policies and actions related to climate
change, point out areas of research deficiency and recommendations on how
to increase role of the women in addressing the climate change and
achieving sustainability. To achieve more successful results, this initiative
aims to highlight the significance of gender equality and encourage
inclusivity in climate change decision-making processes.
Voltage and frequency control of microgrid in presence of micro-turbine inter...IJECEIAES
The active and reactive load changes have a significant impact on voltage
and frequency. In this paper, in order to stabilize the microgrid (MG) against
load variations in islanding mode, the active and reactive power of all
distributed generators (DGs), including energy storage (battery), diesel
generator, and micro-turbine, are controlled. The micro-turbine generator is
connected to MG through a three-phase to three-phase matrix converter, and
the droop control method is applied for controlling the voltage and
frequency of MG. In addition, a method is introduced for voltage and
frequency control of micro-turbines in the transition state from gridconnected mode to islanding mode. A novel switching strategy of the matrix
converter is used for converting the high-frequency output voltage of the
micro-turbine to the grid-side frequency of the utility system. Moreover,
using the switching strategy, the low-order harmonics in the output current
and voltage are not produced, and consequently, the size of the output filter
would be reduced. In fact, the suggested control strategy is load-independent
and has no frequency conversion restrictions. The proposed approach for
voltage and frequency regulation demonstrates exceptional performance and
favorable response across various load alteration scenarios. The suggested
strategy is examined in several scenarios in the MG test systems, and the
simulation results are addressed.
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INSIGHT ABOUT DETECTION, PREDICTION AND WEATHER IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-...ijaia
The world is facing a tough situation due to the catastrophic pandemic caused by novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The number people affected by this virus are increasing exponentially day by day and the number has already crossed 6.4 million. As no vaccine has been discovered yet, the early detection of patients and isolation is the only and most effective way to reduce the spread of the virus. Detecting infected persons from chest X-Ray by using Deep Neural Networks, can be applied as a time and laborsaving solution. In this study, we tried to detect Covid-19 by classification of Covid-19, pneumonia and normal chest X-Rays. We used five different Convolutional Pre-Trained Neural Network models (VGG16,
VGG19, Xception, InceptionV3 and Resnet50) and compared their performance. VGG16 and VGG19 shows precise performance in classification. Both models can classify between three kinds of X-Rays with an accuracy over 92%. Another part of our study was to find the impact of weather factors (temperature, humidity, sun hour and wind speed) on this pandemic using Decision Tree Regressor. We found that temperature, humidity and sun-hour jointly hold 85.88% impact on escalation of Covid-19 and 91.89% impact on death due to Covid-19 where humidity has 8.09% impact on death. We also tried to predict the death of an individual based on age, gender, country, and location due to COVID-19 using the Logistic Regression, which can predict death of an individual with a model accuracy of 94.40%.
Covid 19 Health Prediction using Supervised Learning with Optimizationijtsrd
The assessment of infection is significant for Covid 19 as the antigen pack and RTPCR are imperfect and ought to be better for diagnosing such sickness. Continuous Return Transcription constant talk record polymerase chain . Medical services rehearse incorporate the assortment of different kinds of patient information to assist the doctor with diagnosing the patients wellbeing. This information could be basic side effects, first analysis by a specialist, or an inside and out research facility test. This information is in this manner utilized for examinations simply by a specialist, who thusly utilizes his specific clinical abilities to track down the illness. To group Covid 19 sickness datasets like gentle, center and serious infections, the proposed model uses the idea of controlled machine training and GWO advancement to manage in the event that the patient is impacted or not. Effectiveness investigation is determined and thought about of infection information for the two calculations. The consequences of the reenactments outline the compelling nature and intricacy of the informational index for the reviewing strategies. Contrasted with SVM, the proposed model gives 7.8 percent further developed forecast exactness. The forecast exactness is 8 better than the SVM. This outcome F1 score of 2 is better than an SVM conjecture. Akash Malvi | Nikesh Gupta "Covid-19 Health Prediction using Supervised Learning with Optimization" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-7 | Issue-6 , December 2023, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd61266.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/computer-science/other/61266/covid19-health-prediction-using-supervised-learning-with-optimization/akash-malvi
Susceptible exposed infectious recovered-machine learning for COVID-19 predi...IJECEIAES
Susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) is among the epidemiological models used in forecasting the spread of disease in large populations. SEIR is a fitting model for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread prediction. Somehow, in its original form, SEIR could not measure the impact of lockdowns. So, in the SEIR equations system utilized in this study, a variable was included to evaluate the impact of varying levels of social distance on the transmission of COVID-19. Additionally, we applied artificial intelligence utilizing the deep neural network machine learning (ML) technique. On the initial spread data for Saudi Arabia that were available up to June 25th, 2021, this improved SEIR model was used. The study shows possible infection to around 3.1 million persons without lockdown in Saudi Arabia at the peak of spread, which lasts for about 3 months beginning from the lockdown date (March 21st). On the other hand, the Kingdom's current partial lockdown policy was estimated to cut the estimated number of infections to 0.5 million over nine months. The data shows that stricter lockdowns may successfully flatten the COVID-19 graph curve in Saudi Arabia. We successfully predicted the COVID-19 epidemic's peaks and sizes using our modified deep neural network (DNN) and SEIR model.
Health Risk Prediction Using Support Vector Machine with Gray Wolf Optimizati...ijtsrd
The opinion of disease is important for Covid 19 as the antigen kit and RTPCR are unperfect and should be better for diagnosing such disease. Real Time Return Transcription real time converse transcription - polymerase chain . Healthcare practices include the collection of various sorts of patient data to help the physician diagnose the patients health. These data could be simple symptoms, first diagnosis by a doctor, or an in depth laboratory test. These data are therefore used for analyses only by a doctor, who subsequently uses his particular medical skills to found the ailment. In order to classify Covid 19 disease datasets such mild, middle and severe diseases, the proposed model utilizes the notion of controlled machine education and GWO optimization to regulate if the patient is affecting or not. An efficiency analysis is calculated and compared of disease data for both algorithms. The results of the simulations illustrate the effective nature and complexity of the data set for the grading techniques. Compared to SVM, the suggested model provides 7.8 percent improved prediction accuracy. The prediction accuracy is 8 better than the SVM. This results in an F1 score of 2 percent better than an SVM forecast. Swati Shilpi | Dr. Damodar Prasad Tiwari "Health Risk Prediction Using Support Vector Machine with Gray Wolf Optimization in Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-6 , October 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd46400.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/computer-engineering/46400/health-risk-prediction-using-support-vector-machine-with-gray-wolf-optimization-in-covid19-pandemic-crisis/swati-shilpi
The study aimed to investigate into the impact of a National COVID-19 Health contact tracing and monitoring system for Namibia. The study used qualitative methods as a research strategy. Qualitative data was collected
through zoom meeting and a Google form link was distributed to the participants. The findings of the study revealed
that a total of 18 participants responded to the semi-structured questions of which 38.9% represents male while
female 61.1%. The age group between 18–25 response rate were 22.2%, age group between 26–35 response rate were
55.6%, age group between 36–45 response rate were 16.7% and the age group between 46 and above response rate
was 10% represented in green colour to represent participants who fall in the age group between 46 and above
ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 IN THE UNITED STATES USING MACHINE LEARNINGmlaij
The unprecedented outbreak of COVID-19 also known as the coronavirus has caused a pandemic like none
ever seen before this century. Its impact has been massive on a global level. The deadly virus has
commanded nations around the world to increase their efforts to fight against the spread of the virus after
the stress it has put on resources. With the number of new cases increasing day by day around the world,
the objective of this paper is to contribute towards the analysis of the virus by leveraging machine learning
models to understand its behavior and predict future patterns in the United States (US) based on data
obtained from the COVID-19 Tracking Project.
Analysis of Covid-19 in the United States using Machine Learningmlaij
The unprecedented outbreak of COVID-19 also known as the coronavirus has caused a pandemic like none ever seen before this century. Its impact has been massive on a global level. The deadly virus has commanded nations around the world to increase their efforts to fight against the spread of the virus after the stress it has put on resources. With the number of new cases increasing day by day around the world, the objective of this paper is to contribute towards the analysis of the virus by leveraging machine learning models to understand its behavior and predict future patterns in the United States (US) based on data obtained from the COVID-19 Tracking Project.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a pandemic disease, which has already caused
thousands of causalities and infected several millions of people worldwide. Any technological tool
enabling rapid screening of the COVID-19 infection with high accuracy can be crucially helpful to the
healthcare professionals. The main clinical tool currently in use for the diagnosis of COVID-19 is the
Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), which is expensive, less-sensitive and requires
specialized medical personnel. X-ray imaging is an easily accessible tool that can be an excellent alternative
in the COVID-19 diagnosis. This research was taken to investigate the utility of artificial intelligence (AI)
in the rapid and accurate detection of COVID-19 from chest X-ray images
Modeling and Forecasting the COVID-19 Temporal Spread in Greece: An Explorato...Konstantinos Demertzis
Within the complex framework of anti-COVID-19 health management, where the criteria of diagnostic testing, the availability of public-health resources and services, and the applied anti-COVID-19 policies vary between countries, the reliability and accuracy in the modeling of temporal spread can prove to be effective in the worldwide fight against the disease. This paper applies an exploratory time-series analysis to the evolution of the disease in Greece, which currently suggests a success story of COVID-19 management. The proposed method builds on a recent conceptualization of detecting connective communities in a time-series and develops a novel spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by the community detection in the complex network. Overall, the study contributes to the COVID-19 research by proposing a free of disconnected past-data and reliable framework of forecasting, which can facilitate decision-making and management
of the available health resources.
Comprehensive study: machine learning approaches for COVID-19 diagnosis IJECEIAES
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused a large number of death since has declared as an international pandemic in December 2019, and it is spreading all over the world (more than 200 countries). This situation puts the health organizations in an aberrant demand for urgent needs to develop significant early detection and monitoring smart solutions. Therefore, that new system or solution might be capable to identify COVID-19 quickly and accurately. Nowadays, the science of artificial intelligence (AI), and internet of things (IoT) techniques have an extensive range of applications, it can be initiated a possible solution for early detection and accurate decisions. We believe, combine both of the IoT revolution and machine learning (ML) methods are expected to reshape healthcare treatment strategies to provide smart (diagnosis, treatments, monitoring, and hospitals). This work aims to overview the recent solutions that have been used for early detection, and to provide the researchers a comprehensive summary that contribute to the pandemic control such AI, IoT, cloud, fog, algorithms, and all the dataset and their sources that recently published. In addition, all models, frameworks, monitoring systems, devices, and ideas (in four sections) have been sufficiently presented with all clarifications and justifications. Also, we propose a new vision for early detection based on IoT sensors data entry using 1 million patients-data to verify three proposed methods.
Epidemic Alert System: A Web-based Grassroots ModelIJECEIAES
Most web-based disease surveillance systems that give epidemic alerts are based on very large and unstructured data from various news sources, social media and online queries that are parsed by complex algorithms. This has the tendency to generate results that are so diverse and non-specific. When considered along with the fact that there are no existing standards for mining and analyzing data from the internet, the results or decisions reached based on internet sources have been classified as low-quality. This paper proposes a web-based grassroots epidemic alert system that is based on data collected specifically from primary health centers, hospitals and registered laboratories. It takes a more traditional approach to indicator-based disease surveillance as a step towards standardizing web-based disease surveillance. It makes use of a threshold value that is based on the third quartile (75 th percentile) to determine the need to trigger the alarm for the onset of an epidemic. It also includes, for deeper analysis, demographic information.
Application of Deep Learning for Early Detection of Covid 19 using CT scan Im...ijtsrd
Machine learning has a vital role in Dataset Analysis and Computer Vision field. Troubles range beginning dataset segmentation, dataset check to structure from motion, object recognition and view thoughtful use machine learning technique to investigate in a row starting visual data. The incidence of COVID 19 in strange part of the humanity is a most important suffering intended for every one the managerial unit of personality country. India is as well incompatible this extremely rough mission used for calculating the disease incidence along with have manage its improvement velocity from side to side a numeral of stringent events. During my job this paper on predict the corona virus is contain significance or not hand baggage in continuing region support up as health monitoring systems. The increasing difficulty in healthcare creates not as high class as by a mature resident, punishment in lush executive most significant to harmful possessions resting on mind excellence as well as escalate think about expenses. Accordingly, present be a require designed for elegant decision support systems to facilitate tin can approve clinician’s to generate improved data’s care decision. A talented go forward be in the direction of power the continuing digitization of healthcare with the intention of generate unparalleled amount of medical information stored in Patients Health Records PHRs and pair it through contemporary Machine Learning ML toolset intended for medical decision support, along with concurrently, develop the proof stand of current datasets. The datasets are composed at KAGGLE it is an online datasets used my paper work. The specific classifications algorithms are applied in SVM, NB and supervised learning Decision Tree are used. Today, gigantic measure of information is gathered in clinical databases. These databases may contain significant data embodied in nontrivial connections among manifestations and analyses. Removing such conditions from recorded information is a lot simpler to done by utilizing clinical frameworks. Such information can be utilized in future clinical dynamic. Dr. C. Yesubai Rubhavathi | Diofrin. J | Vishnu Durga. S | Arunachalam. R | Eben Paul Richard. S "Application of Deep Learning for Early Detection of Covid-19 using CT-scan Images" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-7 | Issue-1 , February 2023, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd52792.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/computer-engineering/52792/application-of-deep-learning-for-early-detection-of-covid19-using-ctscan-images/dr-c-yesubai-rubhavathi
Calculating the area of white spots on the lungs of patients with COVID-19 u...IJECEIAES
Coronavirus desease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic that has occurred in the world since 2019. Researchers have carried out various ways in dealing with this disease, starting from the screening stage to the stage of treatment and therapy for COVID-19 patients. As the gateway to the COVID-19 problem, screening has an essential role in a diagnosis that leads to appropriate treatment. In this paper, we will focus on the screening stage using digital image processing techniques, namely in calculating the area of white spots in the lungs of COVID-19 patients. The white patches are an early indication of how badly COVID-19 is attacking the patient. We use XRay Thorax image objects as research data in this paper. Although the current experimental results show that this method has a successful performance of 71.11%, it is pretty promising for further development due to its simplicity.
Enhancing COVID-19 forecasting through deep learning techniques and fine-tuningIJECEIAES
In this study, a comprehensive analysis of classical linear regression forecasting models and deep learning techniques for predicting coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic data was presented. Among the deep learning models, the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network demonstrated superior performance, delivering accurate predictions with minimal errors. The neural network effectively addressed overfitting and underfitting issues through rigorous tuning. However, the diversity of countries and dataset attributes posed challenges in achieving universally optimal predictions. The current study explored the application of the LSTM in predicting healthcare resource demand and optimizing hospital management to provide potential solutions for overcrowding and cost reduction. The results showed the importance of leveraging advanced deep learning techniques for improved COVID-19 forecasting and extending the application of the models to address broader healthcare challenges beyond the pandemic. To further enhance the model performance, future work needed to incorporate additional attributes, such as vaccination rates and immune percentages.
Bibliometric analysis highlighting the role of women in addressing climate ch...IJECEIAES
Fossil fuel consumption increased quickly, contributing to climate change
that is evident in unusual flooding and draughts, and global warming. Over
the past ten years, women's involvement in society has grown dramatically,
and they succeeded in playing a noticeable role in reducing climate change.
A bibliometric analysis of data from the last ten years has been carried out to
examine the role of women in addressing the climate change. The analysis's
findings discussed the relevant to the sustainable development goals (SDGs),
particularly SDG 7 and SDG 13. The results considered contributions made
by women in the various sectors while taking geographic dispersion into
account. The bibliometric analysis delves into topics including women's
leadership in environmental groups, their involvement in policymaking, their
contributions to sustainable development projects, and the influence of
gender diversity on attempts to mitigate climate change. This study's results
highlight how women have influenced policies and actions related to climate
change, point out areas of research deficiency and recommendations on how
to increase role of the women in addressing the climate change and
achieving sustainability. To achieve more successful results, this initiative
aims to highlight the significance of gender equality and encourage
inclusivity in climate change decision-making processes.
Voltage and frequency control of microgrid in presence of micro-turbine inter...IJECEIAES
The active and reactive load changes have a significant impact on voltage
and frequency. In this paper, in order to stabilize the microgrid (MG) against
load variations in islanding mode, the active and reactive power of all
distributed generators (DGs), including energy storage (battery), diesel
generator, and micro-turbine, are controlled. The micro-turbine generator is
connected to MG through a three-phase to three-phase matrix converter, and
the droop control method is applied for controlling the voltage and
frequency of MG. In addition, a method is introduced for voltage and
frequency control of micro-turbines in the transition state from gridconnected mode to islanding mode. A novel switching strategy of the matrix
converter is used for converting the high-frequency output voltage of the
micro-turbine to the grid-side frequency of the utility system. Moreover,
using the switching strategy, the low-order harmonics in the output current
and voltage are not produced, and consequently, the size of the output filter
would be reduced. In fact, the suggested control strategy is load-independent
and has no frequency conversion restrictions. The proposed approach for
voltage and frequency regulation demonstrates exceptional performance and
favorable response across various load alteration scenarios. The suggested
strategy is examined in several scenarios in the MG test systems, and the
simulation results are addressed.
Enhancing battery system identification: nonlinear autoregressive modeling fo...IJECEIAES
Precisely characterizing Li-ion batteries is essential for optimizing their
performance, enhancing safety, and prolonging their lifespan across various
applications, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy systems. This
article introduces an innovative nonlinear methodology for system
identification of a Li-ion battery, employing a nonlinear autoregressive with
exogenous inputs (NARX) model. The proposed approach integrates the
benefits of nonlinear modeling with the adaptability of the NARX structure,
facilitating a more comprehensive representation of the intricate
electrochemical processes within the battery. Experimental data collected
from a Li-ion battery operating under diverse scenarios are employed to
validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The identified
NARX model exhibits superior accuracy in predicting the battery's behavior
compared to traditional linear models. This study underscores the
importance of accounting for nonlinearities in battery modeling, providing
insights into the intricate relationships between state-of-charge, voltage, and
current under dynamic conditions.
Smart grid deployment: from a bibliometric analysis to a surveyIJECEIAES
Smart grids are one of the last decades' innovations in electrical energy.
They bring relevant advantages compared to the traditional grid and
significant interest from the research community. Assessing the field's
evolution is essential to propose guidelines for facing new and future smart
grid challenges. In addition, knowing the main technologies involved in the
deployment of smart grids (SGs) is important to highlight possible
shortcomings that can be mitigated by developing new tools. This paper
contributes to the research trends mentioned above by focusing on two
objectives. First, a bibliometric analysis is presented to give an overview of
the current research level about smart grid deployment. Second, a survey of
the main technological approaches used for smart grid implementation and
their contributions are highlighted. To that effect, we searched the Web of
Science (WoS), and the Scopus databases. We obtained 5,663 documents
from WoS and 7,215 from Scopus on smart grid implementation or
deployment. With the extraction limitation in the Scopus database, 5,872 of
the 7,215 documents were extracted using a multi-step process. These two
datasets have been analyzed using a bibliometric tool called bibliometrix.
The main outputs are presented with some recommendations for future
research.
Use of analytical hierarchy process for selecting and prioritizing islanding ...IJECEIAES
One of the problems that are associated to power systems is islanding
condition, which must be rapidly and properly detected to prevent any
negative consequences on the system's protection, stability, and security.
This paper offers a thorough overview of several islanding detection
strategies, which are divided into two categories: classic approaches,
including local and remote approaches, and modern techniques, including
techniques based on signal processing and computational intelligence.
Additionally, each approach is compared and assessed based on several
factors, including implementation costs, non-detected zones, declining
power quality, and response times using the analytical hierarchy process
(AHP). The multi-criteria decision-making analysis shows that the overall
weight of passive methods (24.7%), active methods (7.8%), hybrid methods
(5.6%), remote methods (14.5%), signal processing-based methods (26.6%),
and computational intelligent-based methods (20.8%) based on the
comparison of all criteria together. Thus, it can be seen from the total weight
that hybrid approaches are the least suitable to be chosen, while signal
processing-based methods are the most appropriate islanding detection
method to be selected and implemented in power system with respect to the
aforementioned factors. Using Expert Choice software, the proposed
hierarchy model is studied and examined.
Enhancing of single-stage grid-connected photovoltaic system using fuzzy logi...IJECEIAES
The power generated by photovoltaic (PV) systems is influenced by
environmental factors. This variability hampers the control and utilization of
solar cells' peak output. In this study, a single-stage grid-connected PV
system is designed to enhance power quality. Our approach employs fuzzy
logic in the direct power control (DPC) of a three-phase voltage source
inverter (VSI), enabling seamless integration of the PV connected to the
grid. Additionally, a fuzzy logic-based maximum power point tracking
(MPPT) controller is adopted, which outperforms traditional methods like
incremental conductance (INC) in enhancing solar cell efficiency and
minimizing the response time. Moreover, the inverter's real-time active and
reactive power is directly managed to achieve a unity power factor (UPF).
The system's performance is assessed through MATLAB/Simulink
implementation, showing marked improvement over conventional methods,
particularly in steady-state and varying weather conditions. For solar
irradiances of 500 and 1,000 W/m2
, the results show that the proposed
method reduces the total harmonic distortion (THD) of the injected current
to the grid by approximately 46% and 38% compared to conventional
methods, respectively. Furthermore, we compare the simulation results with
IEEE standards to evaluate the system's grid compatibility.
Enhancing photovoltaic system maximum power point tracking with fuzzy logic-b...IJECEIAES
Photovoltaic systems have emerged as a promising energy resource that
caters to the future needs of society, owing to their renewable, inexhaustible,
and cost-free nature. The power output of these systems relies on solar cell
radiation and temperature. In order to mitigate the dependence on
atmospheric conditions and enhance power tracking, a conventional
approach has been improved by integrating various methods. To optimize
the generation of electricity from solar systems, the maximum power point
tracking (MPPT) technique is employed. To overcome limitations such as
steady-state voltage oscillations and improve transient response, two
traditional MPPT methods, namely fuzzy logic controller (FLC) and perturb
and observe (P&O), have been modified. This research paper aims to
simulate and validate the step size of the proposed modified P&O and FLC
techniques within the MPPT algorithm using MATLAB/Simulink for
efficient power tracking in photovoltaic systems.
Adaptive synchronous sliding control for a robot manipulator based on neural ...IJECEIAES
Robot manipulators have become important equipment in production lines, medical fields, and transportation. Improving the quality of trajectory tracking for
robot hands is always an attractive topic in the research community. This is a
challenging problem because robot manipulators are complex nonlinear systems
and are often subject to fluctuations in loads and external disturbances. This
article proposes an adaptive synchronous sliding control scheme to improve trajectory tracking performance for a robot manipulator. The proposed controller
ensures that the positions of the joints track the desired trajectory, synchronize
the errors, and significantly reduces chattering. First, the synchronous tracking
errors and synchronous sliding surfaces are presented. Second, the synchronous
tracking error dynamics are determined. Third, a robust adaptive control law is
designed,the unknown components of the model are estimated online by the neural network, and the parameters of the switching elements are selected by fuzzy
logic. The built algorithm ensures that the tracking and approximation errors
are ultimately uniformly bounded (UUB). Finally, the effectiveness of the constructed algorithm is demonstrated through simulation and experimental results.
Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed controller is effective with small synchronous tracking errors, and the chattering phenomenon is
significantly reduced.
Remote field-programmable gate array laboratory for signal acquisition and de...IJECEIAES
A remote laboratory utilizing field-programmable gate array (FPGA) technologies enhances students’ learning experience anywhere and anytime in embedded system design. Existing remote laboratories prioritize hardware access and visual feedback for observing board behavior after programming, neglecting comprehensive debugging tools to resolve errors that require internal signal acquisition. This paper proposes a novel remote embeddedsystem design approach targeting FPGA technologies that are fully interactive via a web-based platform. Our solution provides FPGA board access and debugging capabilities beyond the visual feedback provided by existing remote laboratories. We implemented a lab module that allows users to seamlessly incorporate into their FPGA design. The module minimizes hardware resource utilization while enabling the acquisition of a large number of data samples from the signal during the experiments by adaptively compressing the signal prior to data transmission. The results demonstrate an average compression ratio of 2.90 across three benchmark signals, indicating efficient signal acquisition and effective debugging and analysis. This method allows users to acquire more data samples than conventional methods. The proposed lab allows students to remotely test and debug their designs, bridging the gap between theory and practice in embedded system design.
Detecting and resolving feature envy through automated machine learning and m...IJECEIAES
Efficiently identifying and resolving code smells enhances software project quality. This paper presents a novel solution, utilizing automated machine learning (AutoML) techniques, to detect code smells and apply move method refactoring. By evaluating code metrics before and after refactoring, we assessed its impact on coupling, complexity, and cohesion. Key contributions of this research include a unique dataset for code smell classification and the development of models using AutoGluon for optimal performance. Furthermore, the study identifies the top 20 influential features in classifying feature envy, a well-known code smell, stemming from excessive reliance on external classes. We also explored how move method refactoring addresses feature envy, revealing reduced coupling and complexity, and improved cohesion, ultimately enhancing code quality. In summary, this research offers an empirical, data-driven approach, integrating AutoML and move method refactoring to optimize software project quality. Insights gained shed light on the benefits of refactoring on code quality and the significance of specific features in detecting feature envy. Future research can expand to explore additional refactoring techniques and a broader range of code metrics, advancing software engineering practices and standards.
Smart monitoring technique for solar cell systems using internet of things ba...IJECEIAES
Rapidly and remotely monitoring and receiving the solar cell systems status parameters, solar irradiance, temperature, and humidity, are critical issues in enhancement their efficiency. Hence, in the present article an improved smart prototype of internet of things (IoT) technique based on embedded system through NodeMCU ESP8266 (ESP-12E) was carried out experimentally. Three different regions at Egypt; Luxor, Cairo, and El-Beheira cities were chosen to study their solar irradiance profile, temperature, and humidity by the proposed IoT system. The monitoring data of solar irradiance, temperature, and humidity were live visualized directly by Ubidots through hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP) protocol. The measured solar power radiation in Luxor, Cairo, and El-Beheira ranged between 216-1000, 245-958, and 187-692 W/m 2 respectively during the solar day. The accuracy and rapidity of obtaining monitoring results using the proposed IoT system made it a strong candidate for application in monitoring solar cell systems. On the other hand, the obtained solar power radiation results of the three considered regions strongly candidate Luxor and Cairo as suitable places to build up a solar cells system station rather than El-Beheira.
An efficient security framework for intrusion detection and prevention in int...IJECEIAES
Over the past few years, the internet of things (IoT) has advanced to connect billions of smart devices to improve quality of life. However, anomalies or malicious intrusions pose several security loopholes, leading to performance degradation and threat to data security in IoT operations. Thereby, IoT security systems must keep an eye on and restrict unwanted events from occurring in the IoT network. Recently, various technical solutions based on machine learning (ML) models have been derived towards identifying and restricting unwanted events in IoT. However, most ML-based approaches are prone to miss-classification due to inappropriate feature selection. Additionally, most ML approaches applied to intrusion detection and prevention consider supervised learning, which requires a large amount of labeled data to be trained. Consequently, such complex datasets are impossible to source in a large network like IoT. To address this problem, this proposed study introduces an efficient learning mechanism to strengthen the IoT security aspects. The proposed algorithm incorporates supervised and unsupervised approaches to improve the learning models for intrusion detection and mitigation. Compared with the related works, the experimental outcome shows that the model performs well in a benchmark dataset. It accomplishes an improved detection accuracy of approximately 99.21%.
Developing a smart system for infant incubators using the internet of things ...IJECEIAES
This research is developing an incubator system that integrates the internet of things and artificial intelligence to improve care for premature babies. The system workflow starts with sensors that collect data from the incubator. Then, the data is sent in real-time to the internet of things (IoT) broker eclipse mosquito using the message queue telemetry transport (MQTT) protocol version 5.0. After that, the data is stored in a database for analysis using the long short-term memory network (LSTM) method and displayed in a web application using an application programming interface (API) service. Furthermore, the experimental results produce as many as 2,880 rows of data stored in the database. The correlation coefficient between the target attribute and other attributes ranges from 0.23 to 0.48. Next, several experiments were conducted to evaluate the model-predicted value on the test data. The best results are obtained using a two-layer LSTM configuration model, each with 60 neurons and a lookback setting 6. This model produces an R 2 value of 0.934, with a root mean square error (RMSE) value of 0.015 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.008. In addition, the R 2 value was also evaluated for each attribute used as input, with a result of values between 0.590 and 0.845.
A review on internet of things-based stingless bee's honey production with im...IJECEIAES
Honey is produced exclusively by honeybees and stingless bees which both are well adapted to tropical and subtropical regions such as Malaysia. Stingless bees are known for producing small amounts of honey and are known for having a unique flavor profile. Problem identified that many stingless bees collapsed due to weather, temperature and environment. It is critical to understand the relationship between the production of stingless bee honey and environmental conditions to improve honey production. Thus, this paper presents a review on stingless bee's honey production and prediction modeling. About 54 previous research has been analyzed and compared in identifying the research gaps. A framework on modeling the prediction of stingless bee honey is derived. The result presents the comparison and analysis on the internet of things (IoT) monitoring systems, honey production estimation, convolution neural networks (CNNs), and automatic identification methods on bee species. It is identified based on image detection method the top best three efficiency presents CNN is at 98.67%, densely connected convolutional networks with YOLO v3 is 97.7%, and DenseNet201 convolutional networks 99.81%. This study is significant to assist the researcher in developing a model for predicting stingless honey produced by bee's output, which is important for a stable economy and food security.
A trust based secure access control using authentication mechanism for intero...IJECEIAES
The internet of things (IoT) is a revolutionary innovation in many aspects of our society including interactions, financial activity, and global security such as the military and battlefield internet. Due to the limited energy and processing capacity of network devices, security, energy consumption, compatibility, and device heterogeneity are the long-term IoT problems. As a result, energy and security are critical for data transmission across edge and IoT networks. Existing IoT interoperability techniques need more computation time, have unreliable authentication mechanisms that break easily, lose data easily, and have low confidentiality. In this paper, a key agreement protocol-based authentication mechanism for IoT devices is offered as a solution to this issue. This system makes use of information exchange, which must be secured to prevent access by unauthorized users. Using a compact contiki/cooja simulator, the performance and design of the suggested framework are validated. The simulation findings are evaluated based on detection of malicious nodes after 60 minutes of simulation. The suggested trust method, which is based on privacy access control, reduced packet loss ratio to 0.32%, consumed 0.39% power, and had the greatest average residual energy of 0.99 mJoules at 10 nodes.
Fuzzy linear programming with the intuitionistic polygonal fuzzy numbersIJECEIAES
In real world applications, data are subject to ambiguity due to several factors; fuzzy sets and fuzzy numbers propose a great tool to model such ambiguity. In case of hesitation, the complement of a membership value in fuzzy numbers can be different from the non-membership value, in which case we can model using intuitionistic fuzzy numbers as they provide flexibility by defining both a membership and a non-membership functions. In this article, we consider the intuitionistic fuzzy linear programming problem with intuitionistic polygonal fuzzy numbers, which is a generalization of the previous polygonal fuzzy numbers found in the literature. We present a modification of the simplex method that can be used to solve any general intuitionistic fuzzy linear programming problem after approximating the problem by an intuitionistic polygonal fuzzy number with n edges. This method is given in a simple tableau formulation, and then applied on numerical examples for clarity.
The performance of artificial intelligence in prostate magnetic resonance im...IJECEIAES
Prostate cancer is the predominant form of cancer observed in men worldwide. The application of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a guidance tool for conducting biopsies has been established as a reliable and well-established approach in the diagnosis of prostate cancer. The diagnostic performance of MRI-guided prostate cancer diagnosis exhibits significant heterogeneity due to the intricate and multi-step nature of the diagnostic pathway. The development of artificial intelligence (AI) models, specifically through the utilization of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, is assuming an increasingly significant role in the field of radiology. In the realm of prostate MRI, a considerable body of literature has been dedicated to the development of various AI algorithms. These algorithms have been specifically designed for tasks such as prostate segmentation, lesion identification, and classification. The overarching objective of these endeavors is to enhance diagnostic performance and foster greater agreement among different observers within MRI scans for the prostate. This review article aims to provide a concise overview of the application of AI in the field of radiology, with a specific focus on its utilization in prostate MRI.
Seizure stage detection of epileptic seizure using convolutional neural networksIJECEIAES
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), seventy million individuals worldwide suffer from epilepsy, a neurological disorder. While electroencephalography (EEG) is crucial for diagnosing epilepsy and monitoring the brain activity of epilepsy patients, it requires a specialist to examine all EEG recordings to find epileptic behavior. This procedure needs an experienced doctor, and a precise epilepsy diagnosis is crucial for appropriate treatment. To identify epileptic seizures, this study employed a convolutional neural network (CNN) based on raw scalp EEG signals to discriminate between preictal, ictal, postictal, and interictal segments. The possibility of these characteristics is explored by examining how well timedomain signals work in the detection of epileptic signals using intracranial Freiburg Hospital (FH), scalp Children's Hospital Boston-Massachusetts Institute of Technology (CHB-MIT) databases, and Temple University Hospital (TUH) EEG. To test the viability of this approach, two types of experiments were carried out. Firstly, binary class classification (preictal, ictal, postictal each versus interictal) and four-class classification (interictal versus preictal versus ictal versus postictal). The average accuracy for stage detection using CHB-MIT database was 84.4%, while the Freiburg database's time-domain signals had an accuracy of 79.7% and the highest accuracy of 94.02% for classification in the TUH EEG database when comparing interictal stage to preictal stage.
Analysis of driving style using self-organizing maps to analyze driver behaviorIJECEIAES
Modern life is strongly associated with the use of cars, but the increase in acceleration speeds and their maneuverability leads to a dangerous driving style for some drivers. In these conditions, the development of a method that allows you to track the behavior of the driver is relevant. The article provides an overview of existing methods and models for assessing the functioning of motor vehicles and driver behavior. Based on this, a combined algorithm for recognizing driving style is proposed. To do this, a set of input data was formed, including 20 descriptive features: About the environment, the driver's behavior and the characteristics of the functioning of the car, collected using OBD II. The generated data set is sent to the Kohonen network, where clustering is performed according to driving style and degree of danger. Getting the driving characteristics into a particular cluster allows you to switch to the private indicators of an individual driver and considering individual driving characteristics. The application of the method allows you to identify potentially dangerous driving styles that can prevent accidents.
Hyperspectral object classification using hybrid spectral-spatial fusion and ...IJECEIAES
Because of its spectral-spatial and temporal resolution of greater areas, hyperspectral imaging (HSI) has found widespread application in the field of object classification. The HSI is typically used to accurately determine an object's physical characteristics as well as to locate related objects with appropriate spectral fingerprints. As a result, the HSI has been extensively applied to object identification in several fields, including surveillance, agricultural monitoring, environmental research, and precision agriculture. However, because of their enormous size, objects require a lot of time to classify; for this reason, both spectral and spatial feature fusion have been completed. The existing classification strategy leads to increased misclassification, and the feature fusion method is unable to preserve semantic object inherent features; This study addresses the research difficulties by introducing a hybrid spectral-spatial fusion (HSSF) technique to minimize feature size while maintaining object intrinsic qualities; Lastly, a soft-margins kernel is proposed for multi-layer deep support vector machine (MLDSVM) to reduce misclassification. The standard Indian pines dataset is used for the experiment, and the outcome demonstrates that the HSSF-MLDSVM model performs substantially better in terms of accuracy and Kappa coefficient.
Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
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CFD Simulation of By-pass Flow in a HRSG module by R&R Consult.pptxR&R Consult
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Immunizing Image Classifiers Against Localized Adversary Attacksgerogepatton
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Predicting the status of COVID-19 active cases using a neural network time series
1. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE)
Vol. 12, No. 3, June 2022, pp. 3104~3117
ISSN: 2088-8708, DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v12i3.pp3104-3117 3104
Journal homepage: http://ijece.iaescore.com
Predicting the status of COVID-19 active cases using a neural
network time series
Peyman Almasinejad1
, Amin Golabpour2
, Fatemeh Ahouz3
, Mohammad Reza Mollakhalili Meybodi1
,
Kamal Mirzaie1
, Ahmad Khosravi4
, Marzieh Rohani-Rasaf5
, Azadeh Bastani3
1
Department of Computer Engineering, Maybod Branch, Islamic Azad University, Maybod, Iran
2
Department of Health Information Technology, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences,
Shahroud, Iran
3
Department of Computer Engineering, School of Engineering, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
4
Ophthalmic Epidemiology Research Center, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran
5
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran
Article Info ABSTRACT
Article history:
Received May 17, 2021
Revised Dec 29, 2021
Accepted Jan 12, 2022
The design of intelligent systems for analyzing information and predicting
the epidemiological trends of the disease is rapidly expanding because of the
coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The COVID-19 datasets
provided by Johns Hopkins University were included in the analysis. This
dataset contains some missing data that is imputed using the multi-objective
particle swarm optimization method. A time series model based on nonlinear
autoregressive exogenou (NARX) neural network is proposed to predict the
recovered and death COVID-19 cases. This model is trained and evaluated
for two modes: predicting the situation of the affected areas for the next day
and the next month. After training the model based on the data from January
22 to February 27, 2020, the performance of the proposed model was
evaluated in predicting the situation of the areas in the coming two weeks.
The error rate was less than 5%. The prediction of the proposed model for
April 9, 2020, was compared with the actual data for that day. The absolute
percentage error (AE) worldwide was 12%. The lowest mean absolute error
(MAE) of the model was for South America and Australia with 3 and 3.3,
respectively. In this paper, we have shown that geographical areas with
mortality and recovery of COVID-19 cases can be predicted using a neural
network-based model.
Keywords:
Epidemic outbreak
Missing value
Neural network
Time series prediction
This is an open access article under the CC BY-SA license.
Corresponding Author:
Amin Golabpour
Department of Health Information Technology, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Shahroud University of
Medical Sciences
Shahroud University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Hafte Tir Square, Shahrood, Iran
Email: a.golabpour@shmu.ac.ir
1. INTRODUCTION
On December 8, 2019, the Chinese government reported the death of one patient and the
hospitalization of 41 others with an unknown etiology in Wuhan [1], [2]. This cluster initiated the novel
coronavirus disease (COVID-19) respiratory disease pandemic. While early cases of the disease were linked
to the wet market, the human-to-human transmission had led to the widespread outbreak of the virus through
China [3]. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the emergence of
COVID-19 as a public health emergency with international concern (PHEIC) [4].
By March 16, 2020, WHO had reported the COVID-19 statistics in China and outside of China.
However, since March 17, 2020, because of widespread prevalence on all continents, the number of
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confirmed cases and deaths on each continent was separately expressed [4]. According to the 49th
COVID-19
weekly epidemiological update by WHO released on 20 July 2021, globally, COVID-19 weekly case
incidence increased with an average of around 490,000 cases reported each day. As of 18 July 2021, the
global number of confirmed cases was 190,169,833 [5].
Because of the widespread and growing prevalence of COVID-19 across the world, several works
have examined different aspects of the disease. Most of these include identifying: i) the source of the virus
and its gene sequences analysis [6], [7], ii) analysis of patient information [8], iii) analysis of the first cases in
the countries involved [9]–[11], iv) methods of virus detection [12]–[15], v) evaluation of treatment methods
[16], and vi) estimating the extent of transmission [17]. Artificial intelligence has an important role in
changing the medical care paradigm and can predict various diseases states [18]–[23]. Thus, scores of
research have been done in the past year in areas related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The most common
topics are: i) the development of health care robots to prevent direct contact of medical personnel with
COVID-19 patients [24], [25]; ii) monitoring of public places to determine the distance between persons or
identification of people with high temperature [26]–[28]; iii) forecasting the spread of COVID-19 [29]–[31];
iv) automatic diagnosis of patients with COVID-19 [32]; and v) predicting confirmed, recovered, or death
cases [33], [34].
Fang et al. [35] proposed a methodology called group of optimized and multisource selection
(GROOMS), which is an ensemble of 5 groups of prediction methods. They also proposed a new version of
polynomial neural network (PNN) called “PNN with corrective feedback (PNN+cf)” that includes two extra
pieces of information: i) lagged data and ii) training errors from past iterations of model training to predict
the epidemic at an early stage. The authors conducted an experiment on epidemic data from Chinese health
authorities from January 21 to February 3 to evaluate the initial stage of the COVID-19 epidemic. A time-
series of 14 instances about the suspected cases was run through the GROOMS method for 6-days ahead of
the forecast. They compared the result of the model to the other nine available methods and claimed that the
PNN+cf method with 136,547 root-mean-square-error (RMSE) was better than the other methods. The
RMSE of the other methods was reported from 138.042 to 1744.5256.
Corona tracker team proposed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model based on
the queried data in their website and made the 240-day prediction of COVID-19 cases in and out of China,
started on 20 January 2020 [36]. They predicted that the outbreak would reach its peak on May 23, 2020, and
the maximum number of infected individuals will be 425.066 million globally. The authors predicted that it
would start to drop around early July 2020 and reach under 10,000 on 14 Sep 2020. Given the information
available now, these predictions were far from what really happened around the world.
Wang et al. [37] constructed a COVID-19 prediction model using the improved long short-term
memory (LSTM) deep learning method with a rolling update mechanism based on the epidemical data
provided by Johns Hopkins University. The trends of the epidemic in 150 days ahead were modeled for
Russia, Peru, and Iran. Pointing to the importance of preventive measures which would be taken by the
government to reduce the spread of COVID-19, the authors estimated that the number of positive cases per
day in Iran by mid-November 2020 will reach less than 1,000, however, it did not happen.
Zawbba et al. [38] proposed a regression model based on the multilayer perceptron (MLP) to predict
the COVID-19 spread for the coming months in nine countries: Italy, the United States, China, Japan, Iran,
Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, and Cote d'Ivoire. For each country, they used the number of confirmed cases, the
number of deaths, average age, average weather temperature, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination,
and Malaria treatment. The model was first trained on Chinese data, which were collected from the European
Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) from 29th
December 2019 to 13th
December 2020. Then,
for the other eight countries, data were downloaded from 22nd
January 2020 to 13th
December 2020 from the
Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE). The best and worst
RMSE for confirmed cases were 105.94 and 77,822.38 in Cote d'Ivoire and the United States, respectively. In
the case of predicting the dead cases, the best RMSE was reported 0.91 in Cote d'Ivoire, and the worst one
was 792.07 in the USA.
Ahouz and Golabpour [29] introduced a new representation structure of the COVID-19 dataset. By
dividing the data set regions into three groups based on the maximum number of confirmed cases of
COVID-19 per day and using the least-squares classification algorithm, the authors developed models for
predicting the incidence of COVID-19 between March 30, 2020, and April 12, 2020, for each group. The
accuracy of the model in predicting the number of COVID-19-approved cases worldwide is reported to be
98.45%.
A review of COVID-19 research shows that most of the predictive models utilized several months
of COVID-19 information [20], [34], [38], [39]. However, at the very beginning of pandemics such as
COVID-19, due to the lack of information about the factors affecting the recovery or death of patients, design
models with appropriate accuracy based on limited non-clinical information is very important. These models
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are useful in the containment of the threat and help healthcare administrators to make effective timely
decisions in controlling the spread of the disease in addition to reducing community anxiety.
In this study, using less than two-month prevalence data, we proposed a neural network-based time
series model for predicting the recovery or death of COVID-19 patients based on general information of each
region including latitude, longitude, date, and number of confirmed/recovered/death cases. Based on the
datasets provided by Johns Hopkins University [40], we present a new arrangement of the data for the
optimal use of outbreak trend information in neighboring regions. In addition, using the information from
each region, we predict the final status of COVID-19 cases in each region in the next day and month.
2. METHOD
2.1. Dataset
COVID-19 epidemiological data are compiled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems
Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) [31]. The data are provided in three separate datasets for confirmed,
recovered, and death cases since January 22, 2020, and are updated daily. In each of these datasets, there is a
record (row) for each geographic area. The variables in each dataset are province/state, country/region,
latitude, longitude, and then incremental dates from January 22, 2020. For each geographic area, the value of
each date indicates the cumulative number of confirmed/recovered/death cases from January 22, 2020.
In this study, data from the COVID-19 dataset from January 22 to March 9, 2020, entered into the
analysis. This information includes the number of confirmed, recovered, and death cases in 265 different
geographical areas in 47 days. According to the input requirements of the proposed model, we changed the
data representation in the dataset so that instead of three separate datasets for the three groups of confirmed,
recovered, and death cases, only one dataset containing the information of all three groups was arranged. In
this new dataset, each record (or row) of the dataset contains information about the number of confirmed,
recovered, or deaths per day for each geographic area. As a result, the variables in this new dataset are
province/state, country/region, latitude, longitude, date (which specifies a specific date), cases (which
indicates the number of confirmed, recovered, or death cases), and type (which specifies the type of
confirmed, recovered, or death cases). This structure was suggested by Krispin [41].
This rearranged dataset contains 3,436 records and 7 variables that include information on
COVID-19 cases from 111 countries and 265 different geographic regions around the world. There are
113,583 confirmed, 3,996 death, and 62,512 recovered cases in the dataset. Pre-processing runs on the
dataset before training the proposed model. The dataset is first examined for noise data. Then, the missing
data were investigated, and it was found that the data were recorded with a delay, and 56 records out of 256
were missed. To impute the missing data the following procedure was used:
First, the variable is sorted according to the amount of missing data. Put the variables that have the
least missing at the beginning, and the variables that have the most missing at the end. Then, with the help of
data mining algorithms, a classification model is generated whose independent variables are the variables that
do not exist in the missing data, and its dependent variable is a variable with the lowest rate of missing. Then,
with the help of the data mining algorithm, the missing data of the dependent variable are imputed. The
dependent variable is then added to the set of independent variables, and the next variable is selected as the
dependent variable according to the number of missing data, and the data mining algorithm is applied again.
This process continues until there is no variable with the missing data. The selection of data algorithms is
performed by the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm. Repeat the above process several
times so that no change is made to the data. At the end of this process, all the data are filled in, and there are
no missing data.
Then, depending on the need of the learning algorithm used in the proposed model, the values of
some variables are changed to another format. If necessary, some variables are merged, and new variables are
added to the dataset. There are 24 negative values in the cases which are invalid, so we removed them from
the dataset. As a result, the number of records decreased to 3,412.
In the province/state, there were 901 missing data out of 3,436 because the information of some
countries was generally reported in that country and not for a particular province. Therefore, we imputed the
missing data with the name provided in the country region column. We then assigned a unique numeric code
to each of these 265 regions. This new code is called code_zone and will be added to the dataset instead of
the country and state columns. After applying these preprocessing steps, the resulting dataset is called the
alpha dataset.
The records in the alpha dataset were sorted by the value of the date variable. Since in time series
models, the algorithm detects the time series pattern, the date variable is removed from the dataset. This leads
to the construction of the beta dataset. Therefore, after preprocessing steps, the beta dataset includes 3,412
records with 5 variables (code_zone, latitude, longitude, cases, and type).
4. Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708
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Finally, the beta dataset is compiled for two separate two-class prediction models, namely recovery
prediction and death prediction. To predict recovered cases, records with "recovered" value in the type
variable are considered as class 1, and other records are considered class 0. To predict death cases, records
with "death" value in type are considered as class 1, and other records are considered as class 0.
Descriptive statistics such as mean and standard deviation were used to describe the variables.
Kruskal Wallis test was used to compare the mean of longitude and latitude variables in the confirmed, death,
and recovered groups. This test is to examine the significance of the relationship between latitude and
longitude with mortality and recovery. If the test is approved, the latitude and longitude can be used as
metadata in the model.
2.2. Constructing the time series prediction model
Because of the presence of metadata in the dataset, an algorithm that utilizes this information to
construct time series is preferable. The nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) neural network is one of
these methods [42]. The output of the NARX network at time t+1 is given using (1):
𝑦(𝑡) = 𝐹(𝑦(𝑡 − 1), 𝑦(𝑡 − 2), . . . , 𝑦(𝑡 − 𝑛𝑦), 𝑥(𝑡), 𝑥(𝑡 − 1), 𝑥(𝑡 − 2), . . . , 𝑥(𝑡 − 𝑛𝑦)) (1)
where 𝐹(. ) is the mapping function of the neural network, 𝑦(𝑡 − 1), 𝑦(𝑡 − 2), . . . , 𝑦(𝑡 − 𝑛𝑦) are the true past
outputs of this series, called the desired outputs. And 𝑥(𝑡), 𝑥(𝑡 − 1), 𝑥(𝑡 − 2), . . . , 𝑥(𝑡 − 𝑛𝑦) are the inputs of
the NARX which are called exogenous inputs; these metadata are externally determined and influence the
desired output of the series. nx is the number of input delays, and ny is the number of output delays [42]. In
the proposed model, we aim to determine which areas will experience the death or recovery of COVID-19
cases in the next day. This model is general and does not depend on a specific area. For this reason, we do
not use the present value of 𝑥(𝑡). Thus, the future value of the time series 𝑦(𝑡) is predicted from the past
values of 𝑥(𝑡) and the actual past values of the time series, 𝑦(𝑡).
Figure 1 illustrates the preparation steps of the NARX inputs. In Figure 1, n represents the number
of records, 𝑦
̂ and type are the predicted and actual outputs, respectively, which in the death prediction model
can be dead (1) or not-dead (0), and in the recovery prediction model can be recovered (1) or not-recovered
(0). In addition, latitude, longitude, cases, and their types on day t-d to day t-1 are the exogenous inputs of the
network. Given n record information up to time t-1, the proposed model attempts to predict whether
COVID-19 active cases will recover (die) at time t in a geographic area. It should be noted that for each
geographic area in the dataset, the past information of that area is used to predict its 𝑦
̂(𝑡). In the model, input
and output delays are represented by d or the delay factor.
Figure 1. The preparation steps of the NARX input
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The delay factor determines how many past observed data of a particular area will participate in
predicting the one-step-ahead situation of that area. If the delay is one, it means the model uses only one
previously observed point to predict the type of cases at time t. Similarly, if it is k, by using k past observed
data points, the model predicts the future at time t. The larger the k, the more information is used to build the
model, thus increasing the accuracy of the model as well as its complexity.
In neural network-based time series models, inputs and structure of networks are of great
importance. The most important factors are: i) determining the number of neurons in the hidden layers, ii) the
learning algorithm for adjusting the weights of the network, and iii) determining the amount of past-observed
data to predict the future. In this study, to avoid over-complexity of the network, the maximum number of
neurons in hidden layers and the maximum delay are predetermined. For each learning algorithm to adjust
network weights, the number of different neurons in the hidden layer is evaluated. For each different number
of hidden neurons, different values of d are examined, and the network is trained on the training set. After
training, the performance of the network is evaluated using an evaluation dataset, and the weights of the
network are updated. Figure 2 shows the steps of the proposed model.
Because the latitude and longitude of each geographic area are entered as metadata in the model, the
weights of the neural network are affected by the coordinates of all geographic areas. This allows us to train
just one neural network for all areas in the dataset, instead of training one network for each geographic area.
After completing the training and evaluating the model, it is even possible to enter the information of new
areas into the network and predict the death or recovery status of those areas without the need for retraining.
The final time series prediction model is evaluated on the test set, and the performance of the model is
evaluated based on sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Finally, considering all combinations of hidden
neurons and different delays, the best predictive model is reported.
Figure 2. The steps of the proposed method
2.3. Predicting the status of active cases
Active cases of COVID-19 are those who have not yet died or recovered. Therefore, the difference
between the total numbers of confirmed cases and the total number of dead or recovered cases in the Beta
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dataset are considered active cases. After finding the best models for predicting death and recovery, these
models will be used to predict the status of active cases.
To do this, a new test set containing 265 records will be created for each of the 265 different regions
in the dataset. For each record, information about code_zone, Latitude, Longitude, and the number of active
cases is provided. In addition, we will add date information to this new dataset to predict the situation of each
region in the next month. The value of the date variable for all 265 geographic areas is set to one month after
the last date in the Alpha dataset. Then, the best proposed models for predicting death and recovery will be
trained using the Alpha dataset, which contains the date variable. At this point, the entire dataset is used for
training and evaluation. After training, the models are run on the new test dataset. If both death and recovery
models are assigned a record to the negative class (class label 0), the record type is set to be active.
Otherwise, the type is defined depending on the output of the models, i.e. recovered, death, or both. The
model predicts what the status of active cases will be in each geographic area in the next month. Depending
on the number of areas in which patients' status is active, dead, or recovered, the number of areas in which
confirmed cases of COVID-19 will be expected is calculated according to (2):
𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑 = 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 + 𝐷𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ + 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 (2)
Finally, to see how well the model predicts areas with COVID-19 death, improved, or confirmed
worldwide in the next month, the model's prediction results are compared with the actual data. The criteria
are absolute error (AE), mean absolute error (MAE), and absolute percentage error (APE). For each type of
case, the percentage of its occurrence is obtained by dividing the number of areas of that type by the sum of
the total number of areas of all three types.
The experimentation platform is Intel® Core ™ i7-8550U CPU @ 1.80GHz 1.99 GHz CPU and
12.0 GB of RAM running 64-bits OS of MS Windows 10. The SPSS version 15 was used for descriptive and
statistical analysis. The pre-processing and model construction have been implemented in MATLAB.
3. RESULTS
3.1. Descriptive analysis
Data as of March 9, 2020, showed 113,583 confirmed cases, 3,996 deaths, and 62,512 recovered
cases. Figure 3 shows the distribution of confirmed, recovered, and death cases by latitude and longitude. The
mean distance from the equator in all three groups was significant. The confirmed cases were farther from the
equator than other groups, and those recovered were closer to the equator (P<0.001). The highest mean
distance from prime meridian was related to the recovered group (P<0.001). Kruskal Wallis test showed that
all groups were significantly different in latitude, and the recovered group was significantly different from
other groups in longitude as shown in Table 1.
Figure 3. Distribution of recovered, death, and confirmed cases of coronavirus dataset over the world
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Table 1. Descriptive analysis of COVID-19 dataset [31] using Kruskal Wallis test
Attribute name Confirmed Death Recovered Chi-Square SIG
Mean±SD Mean±SD Mean±SD
Latitude 33.30±05.89 32.88±04.51 31.19±03.28 30.633 P<0.001
Longitude 96.24±37.47 95.88±36.05 109.18±16.51 175.627 P<0.001
3.2. Model construction
In this study, scaled conjugate gradient backpropagation (SCG) [43] and Levenberg-Marquardt
backpropagation (LM) [44] algorithms were used to train and adjust the weights of the NARX neural
network. With a step length of 5, the number of neurons in the hidden layer and the range of delay are varied
from 5 to 25 and 5 to 50, respectively. Each model for death and recovery prediction was trained separately
on the relevant dataset (interval 5 is obtained by trial and error) [42]. Each dataset is divided into 55%
training set, 15% evaluation set, and 30% test set. Since the dataset has a natural temporal order, these values
are selected in the dataset with the same order. Thus, the training dataset contains the first 55% of the
records, the evaluation set contains 15% of the next records, and the test set contains 30% of the last data
records. As a result, data from January 22 to February 27, 2020, were used to build the model
(training+evaluation datasets), and data from February 28 to March 9, 2020, were used to test the model. To
do this, the "divideblock" function is selected as the neural network
Table 2 and Table 3 show the results of the proposed LM-based model on the test set to predict
recovery and death for all combinations of hidden layer neurons and delay factors, respectively. The results
are accepted or rejected based on two criteria: the result is discarded: i) if the performance of the model on
the test set is better than that on the training set or ii) the model accuracy is less than 0.75%. Accordingly,
values written in gray in the tables indicate unacceptable values. Given these two criteria, there is no valid
case among the different modes of the proposed SCG-based model for predicting recovered cases. However,
there is a single valid mode among the different SCG-based models for predicting deaths. This model is built
of 25 nodes in the hidden layer and information from 5 previous records (delay). The accuracy, sensitivity,
and specificity were 96.27%, 73.5%, and 98.39%, respectively.
Table 2. The result of the proposed method for prediction of recovered cases using LM
Learning algorithms Number of past information
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation number of hidden neurons
5 Sensitivity Training 95.54 97.17 92.61 96.96 96.20 95.87 95.54 94.56 96.19 97.17
Test 96.74 96.38 96.38 96.38 96.38 96.01 95.65 95.65 95.65 95.27
Specificity Training 97.68 97.21 97.61 98.84 97.27 98.30 98.57 97.55 97.07 96.39
Test 92.07 98.24 98.64 97.39 98.48 97.91 84.17 79.41 87.78 64.29
Accuracy Training 96.86 97.19 95.68 98.11 96.86 97.36 97.40 96.40 96.73 96.69
Test 93.33 97.73 98.02 97.11 97.90 97.39 87.37 83.96 90.00 73.03
10 Sensitivity Training 95.76 95.98 95.22 97.07 96.52 95.54 98.04 95.76 98.04 96.96
Test 96.74 96.38 96.38 96.74 96.74 96.01 95.65 95.65 94.93 95.64
Specificity Training 97.48 97.48 98.77 99.05 98.09 98.84 99.32 95.91 97.07 96.05
Test 98.92 98.51 98.91 89.03 86.60 92.21 95.52 75.18 72.30 55.14
Accuracy Training 96.82 96.90 97.40 98.28 97.49 97.57 98.83 95.85 97.44 96.40
Test 98.33 97.93 98.22 91.14 89.40 93.27 95.56 80.91 78.67 66.56
15 Sensitivity Training 95.76 95.76 96.30 96.41 96.52 96.85 96.08 96.95 95.97 95.22
Test 96.74 96.38 96.74 96.74 96.38 96.01 95.29 94.93 94.93 95.64
Specificity Training 99.18 97.41 97.82 98.30 99.25 98.98 97.89 97.07 98.16 99.11
Test 98.52 98.78 87.74 87.24 99.03 80.25 98.32 95.63 98.58 98.43
Accuracy Training 97.86 96.77 97.24 97.57 98.20 98.16 97.19 97.03 97.32 97.61
Test 98.04 98.13 90.20 89.85 98.30 84.62 97.47 95.43 97.55 97.64
20 Sensitivity Training 95.65 96.09 96.85 94.67 95.43 97.07 97.82 98.91 97.50 94.57
Test 96.74 96.38 96.74 96.38 96.38 95.65 95.65 95.29 94.20 95.27
Specificity Training 99.32 98.36 97.82 99.18 98.98 98.02 99.25 97.00 99.32 99.39
Test 93.68 98.38 81.06 99.31 97.93 95.41 82.07 77.43 95.88 90.14
Accuracy Training 97.91 97.49 97.44 97.44 97.61 97.65 98.70 97.74 98.62 97.53
Test 94.51 97.83 85.35 98.51 97.50 95.48 85.86 82.44 95.41 91.59
25 Sensitivity Training 96.41 95.87 96.20 95.33 96.85 95.98 97.28 96.74 94.99 97.72
Test 96.74 96.38 96.74 96.38 96.38 96.38 95.29 94.57 94.57 94.55
Specificity Training 99.52 98.36 98.98 99.73 99.45 91.34 98.71 98.91 99.18 98.98
Test 98.39 98.51 89.92 96.43 97.79 80.95 80.53 97.32 83.66 89.29
Accuracy Training 98.32 97.40 97.91 98.03 98.45 93.13 98.16 98.07 97.57 98.49
Test 97.94 97.93 91.78 96.42 97.40 85.23 84.65 96.55 86.73 90.77
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Table 3. The result of the proposed method for prediction of death cases using LM
Learning algorithms Number of past information
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation number of hidden neurons
5 Sensitivity Training 70.18 76.61 88.89 71.93 75.44 65.88 68.82 71.76 75.29 70.79
Test 75.86 85.06 47.13 59.77 71.26 50.57 64.37 67.82 79.52 54.43
Specificity Training 98.83 98.29 97.74 98.60 98.38 98.74 98.47 98.60 98.46 98.14
Test 98.50 99.35 99.24 98.04 99.23 99.23 99.11 99.44 98.66 97.88
Accuracy Training 96.77 96.73 97.11 96.69 96.73 96.40 96.36 96.69 96.77 96.10
Test 96.57 98.13 94.75 94.73 96.80 94.97 96.06 96.65 97.04 94.36
10 Sensitivity Training 87.13 75.44 75.44 73.68 72.51 78.24 70.59 82.94 76.44 69.10
Test 81.61 52.87 42.53 62.07 48.28 65.52 47.13 68.97 54.22 69.62
Specificity Training 98.47 98.51 98.83 99.05 99.05 98.87 98.83 98.29 98.51 99.19
Test 98.93 99.14 98.27 99.02 98.80 97.80 94.02 99.44 99.67 97.21
Accuracy Training 97.65 96.86 97.15 97.24 97.15 97.40 96.82 97.19 96.90 96.94
Test 97.45 95.17 93.47 95.82 94.40 94.97 89.90 96.75 95.82 94.97
15 Sensitivity Training 71.93 72.51 74.27 74.27 73.68 67.65 91.76 91.18 90.23 75.28
Test 60.92 64.37 44.83 48.28 52.87 40.23 80.46 85.06 53.01 53.16
Specificity Training 98.78 99.05 99.32 98.96 99.01 99.28 98.06 98.96 98.42 99.50
Test 99.68 99.57 98.81 95.53 99.01 99.01 97.67 96.10 98.66 99.22
Accuracy Training 96.86 97.15 97.53 97.19 97.19 97.03 97.61 98.41 97.82 97.70
Test 96.37 96.55 94.16 91.44 95.00 93.87 96.16 95.13 94.80 95.49
20 Sensitivity Training 79.53 73.68 70.76 69.59 71.35 65.88 94.12 92.94 83.91 94.38
Test 80.46 63.22 55.17 65.52 43.68 44.83 62.07 51.72 73.49 75.95
Specificity Training 98.29 99.01 98.96 99.28 99.01 99.41 98.92 99.05 98.96 96.24
Test 98.93 98.71 98.70 97.17 99.67 91.96 97.45 95.43 99.11 96.88
Accuracy Training 96.94 97.19 96.94 97.15 97.03 97.03 98.58 98.62 97.86 96.10
Test 97.35 95.67 94.95 94.43 94.80 87.84 94.34 91.57 96.94 95.18
25 Sensitivity Training 70.18 73.68 73.10 76.61 78.95 73.53 87.06 89.41 83.91 88.76
Test 78.16 50.57 72.41 59.77 65.52 58.62 52.87 71.26 45.78 51.90
Specificity Training 99.05 99.05 99.19 98.83 99.05 98.65 99.50 99.23 98.92 99.05
Test 98.61 85.13 98.59 97.71 88.61 99.34 91.14 93.54 98.44 92.30
Accuracy Training 96.98 97.24 97.32 97.24 97.61 96.86 98.62 98.53 97.82 98.28
Test 96.86 82.17 96.34 94.43 86.60 95.78 87.78 91.57 93.98 89.03
To predict the recovered cases, 21 out of 50 possible combinations were accepted among different
modes of implementation of the proposed method using the LM learning algorithm. The best combination
consists of 15 neurons in the hidden layer and uses the last 25 observations. The accuracy, sensitivity, and
specificity of evaluation of this model on the test set were 98.30%, 96.38%, and 99.03%, respectively.
Also, to predict death cases, 27 out of 50 possible combinations were accepted among different
modes of implementation of the proposed method using the LM learning algorithm. The best combination
consists of 15 neurons in the hidden layer and uses the last 40 observations. Accuracy, sensitivity, and
specificity of evaluation of this model in the test set were 95.13%, 85.06%, and 96.10%, respectively.
The figure shows the best period until the neural network reaches the desired level. At this stage, the
mean square error for predicting recovered cases using the LM learning method is 0.026. To predict the
deaths, this value is 0.048 and 0.037 for LM and SCG learning methods, respectively. Henceforth, the model
behavior and error rate remain almost constant and the zigzag mode is not observed in the plot.
3.3. Predicting the status of the active patients
Because the best predictive model of the recovered cases was created using the LM learning
algorithm, consisting of 15 hidden layer neurons and 25-time delays, these settings were used to construct a
predictive model of the probability of recovery of active cases. The LM-based death prediction model
settings consist of 15 hidden layers and 40-time delays and are more sensitive. Thus, this setting was used to
construct the predictive model of the probability of death of active cases. The whole Alpha dataset (includes
information from January 22 to March 9, 2020) was used to train and evaluate each model with an 85%-15%
training-validation partition. The trained model was then run on the new test set containing 265 records. By
adding the Date variable to 265 records and setting it to the next month, in this case, April 9, 2020, we can
predict the status of active patients in the coming month. The results of the continental implementation are
presented in Table 4. For each type of case on each continent, the number of actual and predicted COVID-19
cases and the absolute errors of these two values are reported. The last column shows the MAE of the
proposed model in predicting the type of COVID-19 cases on each continent. Accordingly, the lowest MAE
of the model is obtained for South America and Australia with 3 and 3.33, respectively. The highest MAE is
for North America with 74.67. In predicting the number of areas that will have new confirmed cases of
COVID-19on April 9, 2020, the lowest MAE is for Europe with 1 area and the worst for North America with
126 regions. In predicting the number of regions leading to death, the best predictions are for Africa and Asia
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with a MAE of 2 and the worst case for Europe with a MAE of 28. To predict the areas where people will
recover, the best prediction is for Australia with one area difference and the worst for North America with 79
areas. Globally, the best outcome among the predictions of areas with confirmed, recovery, and death is
related to the prediction of death with 13 cases.
Table 4. Prediction of the state of active COVID-19 patients by the proposed model
Row Continent Confirmed Recovered Death MAE
Predicted Actual AE Predicted Actual AE Predicted Actual AE
1 Africa 13.00 26.00 13 6.00 15.00 9 5.00 7.00 2 8.00
2 Asia 86.00 41.00 45 54.00 40.00 14 17.00 19.00 2 20.33
3 Australian 13.00 8.00 5 8.00 7.00 1 5.00 1.00 4 3.33
4 Europe 56.00 55.00 1 34.00 39.00 5 11.00 39.00 28 11.33
5 North America 150.00 24.00 126 87.00 8.00 79 33.00 14.00 19 74.67
6 South America 11.00 11.00 0 5.00 10.00 5 3.00 7.00 4 3.00
World 329 165 164 194 119 75 74 87 13 84.00
Figure 4 shows the actual and predicted percentage of the areas that will encounter the occurrence of
each of the three types of death, recovered, and confirmed cases on April 9, 2020. This figure shows the
percentage of occurrence of each type on each continent. In predicting areas with confirmed cases, the best
accuracy was obtained in Africa and Australia with 100%. In predicting areas with death cases, the best
accuracy was obtained in Africa with 93.75%, and the best recovery prediction was achieved for Europe with
95.66%. In addition, Figure 5 shows the distribution of different predicted types of COVID-19 cases in the
next month across the world.
Figure 4. The actual and predicted percentage of occurrences of confirmed, recovered, and death cases
around the world on April 9, 2020
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Figure 5. Distribution of death, recovery, and active COVID-19 infected patients across the world
4. DISCUSSION
In this study, the COVID-19 dataset derived from the JHU CSSE datasets of COVID-19, from
January 22 to March 9, 2020, was used. This dataset contains 3,436 records from 265 different geographic
regions. Each record stores the information about code_zone, latitude, longitude, cases, and type of
COVID-19 cases. The significance of latitude and longitude with type (confirmed-death-recovered) variable
with 99% confidence interval were evaluated by the Kruskal Wallis test. There was a significant relationship
between latitude and longitude and the status of covid-19 patients (P<0.001). Therefore, we entered these
features into the prediction models.
Neural networks are known as an accurate and powerful tool for solving complex and nonlinear
problems and predictive models [45]. Thus, a time-series prediction model was designed using a neural
network algorithm. This is an efficient method for predicting the status of confirmed, death, and recovered
cases of COVID-19.
After training the models on data from January 22 to February 27, 2020, the models were tested on
data from February 28 to March 9, 2020. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the model on the test
set were 96.38%, 99.03%, and 98.3%, respectively, to predict the recovery. The sensitivity was 85.06%,
specificity was 96.1%, and accuracy was 95.13% for mortality prediction. These results indicate that this
model is very suitable for predicting COVID-19 status.
The strength of the proposed model is that it does not require retraining to predict mortality or
recovery of affected areas in the short term. Since the training of neural network models is time-consuming,
eliminating the training time allows us to predict the situation of the next day of the regions with high speed
and accuracy by providing daily information. In this study, we evaluated the proposed model as a pilot to
predict the state of the regions for 12 consecutive days. The accuracy was higher than 95% in both models of
death and recovery prediction. Daily prediction of death and recovery status of affected areas is important in
the management of medical staff and timely measures.
In the second part of the prediction, information about one month after the selected period, i.e. April
9, 2020, for each continent, is expressed in terms of the number and percentage of infected areas. The results
of the proposed model were compared with the actual data in the updated JHU CSSE datasets of COVID-19.
In Africa, for all three types of recovered, deaths, and confirmed cases, the proposed method had maximum
and minimum prediction error of 13 and 2 geographical areas, respectively. In Asia, for all three types of
recovered, deaths, and confirmed cases, the proposed method had maximum and minimum prediction errors
of 45 and 2, respectively. In Australia, for all three types of recovered, deaths, and confirmed cases, the
proposed method has maximum and minimum prediction errors of 5 and 1, respectively. In Europe, for all
three types of recovered, deaths, and confirmed cases, the proposed method had maximum and minimum
prediction errors of 28 and 1, respectively. In North America, for all three types of recovered, deaths, and
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confirmed cases, the proposed method had maximum and minimum prediction errors of 126 and 19,
respectively. In South America, for all three types of recovered, deaths, and confirmed cases, the proposed
method had maximum and minimum prediction errors of 5 and zero, respectively. The mean absolute
percentage error of all three types is 4.17% in Africa, 9.19 % in Asia, 8.65% in Australia, 12.29% in Europe,
12.14% in North America, and 12.41% in South America. According to Figure 4, after aggregating the
results of all continents, for all three types of confirmed, death, and recovered in the world, the proposed
model had a maximum prediction error of 164 geographical areas and a minimum of 13 geographical areas.
The maximum absolute percentage error for the world is 11.05%.
Another limitation of this study is the use of data from all countries involved in COVID-19, while
each country has its own protocol for testing and identifying patients. However, in general, this is the only
global dataset for COVID-19 that has been used in other studies [17], [29], [34], [46]–[48]. Also, in the
proposed model, the past information of each country has been used to predict the COVID-19 status of that
country, and this reduces the mentioned limitation. It is suggested that if the area is specifically defined,
variables such as temperature and humidity, weather conditions, and population density of the area should be
used in creating the model.
5. A DATA SHARING STATEMENT
Dataset is public and available on Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and
Engineering (JHU CCSE). Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases [49].
6. CONCLUSION
COVID-19 has been dramatically spreading around the world during an epidemic, the speed of
information gathering and information dissemination is crucial to the containment of the threat. The mortality
or recovery of patients in a region/country or continent should be predicted because it helps with timely
action and medical decisions. In addition, resource management will be more effective if that the trend of
mortality or recovery in an area is predicted in the next week or two. Since epidemiological models such as
SIR are not able to accurately predict mortality and recovery of COVID-19 cases, we presented a more
complex model based on machine learning methods using the COVID-19 Cases dataset provided by Johns
Hopkins University. Therefore, due to the time-series nature of COVID-19 data, a neural network-based
time-series method is presented to predict the mortality or recovery status of COVID-19 cases in different
geographical areas around the world. In addition, we used the proposed model to estimate the status of
COVID-19 active cases in the next month.
Although almost the same preventive measures have been taken in almost all areas infected with
COVID-19, in some areas the death or recovery of patients is very different. The prediction of recovery or
death of patients affects the decision of the authorities given the burden of the disease on people's anxiety and
the economy. This study almost comprehensively analyzes COVID-19in terms of: i) predicting the final
status of patients (recovery or death) and ii) the effect of the longitude and latitude of the infected areas on
the final status of active cases separately for each region and continent. Our results indicate that the model
might be generalized in similar pandemics considering that the proposed model does not depend on the
clinical characteristics of the disease and predicts the condition of patients based on the disease pattern in a
region and other infected areas around the world.
The importance of designing such models can be considered for several reasons: i) at the beginning
of epidemics, the outbreak does not occur simultaneously all over the world so the information about the
outbreak is available for all regions. Therefore, if there are models that can predict the conditions of an area
in the coming weeks based on the disease behavior pattern in neighboring areas, preventive measures can be
taken to prevent the spread of the disease more effectively and ii) due to the unknown nature of the disease
and the factors affecting it, the existence of models that can predict the final status of patients based on non-
clinical information can help administrators to manage the allocation of resources and medical staff in
affected areas, and thus increasing the quality of services and reducing the community anxiety. The high
accuracy of the proposed model in predicting the recovery and death in the next 2-week indicates that the
proposed model can be used in the event of other pandemics in the future and can guide planning and
resource allocation for prevention, treatment, and palliative care.
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BIOGRAPHIES OF AUTHORS
Peyman Almasinejad received his Bachelor of Software Engineering from the
Islamic Azad University, Iran in 2006 and Master of Software Engineering from Payame
Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran in 2009. Then, He worked in a software company.
Currently, he is working as an instructor at Department of Computer Engineering and
Information Technology, Payame Noor University (PNU), Iran. He can be contacted at
email: p.almasinejad@pnu.ac.ir.
Amin Golabpour I received my PhD in medical informatics from Ferdowsi
University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran, and now I am a director of Health Informatics
Technology group of School of Allied Medical Sciences department at Shahroud University
of Medical Sciences, Shahrour, Iran. I received two master's degree in software engineering
and artificial intelligence. He can be contacted at email: a.golabpour@shmu.ac.ir.
14. Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708
Predicting the status of COVID-19 active cases using a neural network time series (Peyman Almasinejad)
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Fatemeh Ahouz , I received my M.Sc. in artificial intelligence (AI) from Shahid
Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran. I've been working as a faculty lecturer at Behbahan
Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran since 2012. In addition to
teaching fundamental courses of computer engineering and soft computing, I've been
conducting some research in deep/machine learning and optimization methods especially in
extracting rules from data. I am interested in practical aspects of AI in engineering and
medical applications. Currently my research works are oriented toward medical informatics.
She can be contacted at email: ahouz@bkatu.ac.ir.
Mohammad-Reza Mollakhalili-Meybodi received his M.Sc. degree in
Computer Engineering from Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran, in 2004, and
the B.Sc. degree in Computer Engineering from Shahid Beheshti University in 2001. He
joined the faculty of Computer engineering Department at Islamic Azad University (Maybod
Branch) in 2004. He obtained his Ph.D. degree in Computer Engineering in 2014. His
research interests include Communication Networks, Learning Systems, Algorithms, Graph
Theory, Stochastic Optimization, Software Defined Networks and Soft Computing. He can
be contacted at email: Mollakhalili@maybodiau.ac.ir.
Kamal Mirzaie obtained his B.Sc. in Computer Engineering from Iran
University of Science and Technology (IUST) in 2003 and his M.Sc. in Computer
Engineering from University of Isfahan (UI) in 2005. He obtained his Ph.D. In 2011, he is
currently working as an Assistant Professor at the Department of Computer Engineering,
Maybod Branch, Islamic Azad University, and Maybod, Iran. His research interests include
cognitive science, soft computing, medical data mining, parallel processing, image
processing, and pattern recognition. He can be contacted at email:
k.mirzaie@maybodiau.ac.ir.
Ahmad Khosravi his M.S. and Ph.D. of Epidemiology, Center for Health
Related Social and Behavioral Sciences, he is Associate Professor at Shahroud University of
Medical Sciences (Iran). He can be contacted at email: khosravi2000us@yahoo.com.
Marzieh Rohani-Rasaf her M.S. in 2012, and Ph.D. in Epidemiology in 2019
at Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences (Iran). Currently, she is Assistant
Professor and Head of Student Research Committee at Shahroud University of Medical
Sciences (Iran). She can be contacted at email: rohani@shmu.ac.ir.
Azadeh Bastani received the B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees in Computer Engineering
from Isfahan University, Isfahan, Iran, and Iran University of Science and Technology,
Tehran, Iran, in 2000 and 2003, respectively. She has been IT expert in Kish University from
2004 to 2008. Since 2008, she has been with the Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of
Technology, Behbahan, Iran, where she is currently Instructor of the Computer Engineering
Department. Her current research interests include digital image processing, machine
learning, and artificial intelligence systems. She can be contacted at email:
bastani@bkatu.ac.ir.