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What  must  we invent  for  tomorrow?   Five critical forces that will challenge the U.S. learning community (and perhaps yours) to innovate for the future EDEN 2009 Annual Conference 10-13 June 2009 Gdansk, Poland Nicholas H. Allen, DPA Provost Emeritus & Collegiate Professor University of Maryland University College [email_address]
A Changing World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Forces of Change in the U.S. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1. National Need ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*IES National Center for Educational Statistics, Sep 2008
Baseline Growth Patterns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*IES National Center for Educational Statistics, Sep 2008
National Need: 2006-2017 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*IES National Center for Educational Statistics, Sep 2008
Shift to Non-traditional Students ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*Stokes, Peter J.;  Hidden in Plain Sight,  Eduventures Issue Paper to The  Commission on the Future of Higher Education, 2006.
Shift to Non-traditional ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*Stokes, Peter J.;  Hidden in Plain Sight,  Eduventures Issue Paper to The  Commission on the Future of Higher Education, 2006.
National Attainment Goals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*US BLS,  Occupational Outlook Handbook , 2008-2009 **OECD,  Education at a Glance,  September 2008
National Attainment Goals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*NCHE,  Adding it up: State Challenges for Increasing College Access and Success , November 2007.
Rising Expectations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
National Need: Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2. Major Demographic Shifts  (U.S.) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Hispanic & Immigrant Growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*Pew Research Center, 2008
Hispanic & Immigrant Growth ,[object Object],*Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*IES National Center for Educational Statistics, Sep 2008
The Third Age: Tsunami ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*ACE,  Older Adults & Higher Education , 2007
Third Age: Longevity Revolution ,[object Object],Average Retirement Age: 68 Life Expectancy: 68 62 78+
The Third Age Will Continue to Work ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*Met Life Foundation & Civic Ventures survey,2005;  **Merrill Lynch Survey
Why They Won’t Retire? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Changing Demographics: Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Changing Demographics: Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3. Technology Shift: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Online Delivery Revolution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*SLOAN-C,  Staying the Course , Nov. 2008;  **Draves & Coates,  Nine Shift  (2004)
Interoperability Revolution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Breakthroughs in Key Applications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
E-reader Applications ,[object Object],[object Object]
E-reader Applications ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Web 2.0 Revolution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Web 2.0 Culture: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Traditional Delivery Models
Blended Transition
Asynchronous Different Synchronous ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Time ,[object Object],[object Object],Same ,[object Object],[object Object],Place Same Different Wikis Blogs Grass Roots Video Podcasts M-Learning Social Networking Virtual Worlds OERs PLEs Time The Future
Technology Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
But: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
4. Competitive Pressures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*SLOAN-C,  Online Nation , October 2007
Increasing Competition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*SLOAN-C,  Online Nation , October, 2007
Competitive Pressures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*Eduventures, February 2006.
Competitive Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Competitive Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
5. Regulatory Pressures ,[object Object],[object Object]
Accountability ,[object Object],[object Object]
Increasing costs Note: % growth in current dollars Source: CNNMoney.com Aug 22, 2008 from  Bureau of Labor Statistics
Accountability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*American Enterprise Institute, 2009
Higher Education Opp. Act 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regulatory Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Must We Invent for the Future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Must We Invent: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Must We Invent ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Must We Invent ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Must We Invent? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Must We Invent? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Must We Invent? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Must We invent ,[object Object],[object Object]
Relevance to EDEN Members? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Much Work to Be Done  ,[object Object],[object Object]

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What Must We Invent for Tomorrow? Five Critical Forces That Will Challenge the U.S. Learning Community (and Perhaps Yours) to Innovate for the Future.

  • 1. What must we invent for tomorrow? Five critical forces that will challenge the U.S. learning community (and perhaps yours) to innovate for the future EDEN 2009 Annual Conference 10-13 June 2009 Gdansk, Poland Nicholas H. Allen, DPA Provost Emeritus & Collegiate Professor University of Maryland University College [email_address]
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  • 43. Increasing costs Note: % growth in current dollars Source: CNNMoney.com Aug 22, 2008 from Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Editor's Notes

  1. Advice from Andras: what to present: What is happening in US Changing world; revolution has only begun
  2. Percent U.S. population 65 or older:* 1900 4% 2000 12% 2030 20%
  3. Old “Retirement” Paradigm: “ Golden years;” out to the golf course; Paid not to work Health issues New Paradigm: Continue to work or transition to new careers Relatively good health Years of continued contribution
  4. Term coined by T’OReilly (O’Reilly Media) 2004 Applications exist only on the Internet, drawing their power from interactive connections and network effects from other users. Philosophy of maximizing collective intelligence through shawing and creating information Google: 2.7 billion inquiries per month
  5. “Distance education …will become the standard for much formal education and training as well. Classrooms will go global...” (Sachs, 2007) Web 2.0 Technologies have unimagined potential to: Help faculty teach better Help learners learn more Increase access Reduce the cost of education Add stronger social element to online Web 2.0 and open content resources offer can provide an element of “mass customization” missing in large scale educational enterprises Mobility
  6. Define “Student Centric”—placing the student and his/her success first; taking an active approach to reach out to students to facilitate their progress into and through their academic program as opposed to taking a passive approach or take it or leave it, or one of benign neglect.
  7. Web 2.0 technologies may play a role here
  8. as the nation’s need for more graduates with tertiary degrees increase collides with more and more underprepared students
  9. Acceptable when access was selective and limited Not acceptable when access is open Not acceptable on the basis of costs Not acceptable on the basis of quality Not accountable
  10. 53% of all incoming students must take a remedial course (Great Expectations, AACU, 2002. F-Gen students 31% of US higher education population Low income and F-Gen students have higher drop rates (11% earned bachelors after 6 years versus 55%)
  11. 5 years 1150 pages Reporting requirements especially related to transfer credit, student authentication, for DE institutions, text book prices, student load policies, tuition increases
  12. We wouldn’t accept new medical procedures or techniques without evidence they do no harm and improve treatment