About global population & its impacts.

1. Population and Development

2. Discussion point
What is the pattern of population growth in the world?
How does population growth stimulate the development?
Briefly explain in terms of Keynes and Lewis model.
What are the causes of population growth? Will population
continue to increase in the world?
What are the consequences of increasing life expectancy
and aging in the developing world?
Why will the population of underdeveloped countries be
higher in 2050? Why will it decrease in Europe and other
developed countries?
What are the demographic characteristics of Bangladesh?
Case studies: Causes of population growth in Bangladesh
and Population as asset or liability in Bangladesh

3. Population Growth Was Very Slow in the Earlier Years of
Human Existence, but Has Accelerated in the Past 250 Years
Source: Population Reference Bureau estimates and projections; and UN Population Division, World
Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (2009).

4. Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Natural
increase
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
Stages of Demographic Transition

5. WORLD POPULATION OUTLOOK 1950-2050
Total population 2010 is 6.90 billion and for 2050 will reach
9.08 billion
In spite of higher population for the future, the growth rate
of the population is expected to fall due to the decline in
fertility rate and the toll taken by the HIV/AIDS pandemic
in some countries.
However, the death rate declined and the causes of death
changed towards Cancer and Cardiovascular diseases.
Fertility rate decline – family planning
Increasing population but decrease in average annual
growth rate. e.g. 1.1% in 2009, but 0.43% to 0% in 2050

6. 6
Global Population Growth
A Developing Country Phenomenon
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision,
medium variant.
Developing countries
Developed countries

7. 0
20
40
60
80
100
2075 2100 2125 2150
AnnualIncrements
0
2
4
6
8
10
Populationsize
Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150
Millions Billions Billions
Annualincrements
Populationsize
Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)
No population explosion after 2050!!

8. Population Growth Inhibits
Development
Population stabilizes at the level of subsistence
“Whenever human beings obtain more than
mere subsistence, their numbers go up until
everybody is back at the level of subsistence”
- Malthus
Population growth and Development

9. Population Growth Stimulates
Development
• Creation of “Effective Demand”
• Supply of labour at a cheaper wage
Keynes and Lewis content population growth
as stimulating development through -
During 18 th and 19 th Centuries rapid population
growth in developed world contributed to steady
economic growth predicted by Keyes and Lewis

10. POPULATION OUTLOOK BY REGION
1950-2050
World population growth will be concentrated in
developing countries for the foreseeable future
Population for Asia, Africa, Sub Saharan Africa,
Middle East, North America and South America will
increase substantially
Population for European countries and Former
Soviet Union tends to fall for the foreseeable future
Not much different for the population for Oceania
and Baltic region

11. Europe is the only world region projected to decline
in population by 2050.
728
1,941
668
778
457
549
326
885
3,875
5,385Asia
Africa
Europe
Latin
America/
Caribbean
North America
2050
2005
Millions

12. Ageing and related problem
The world's elderly population (60 +) is the fastest
growing age group.
Population ageing is a global phenomenon that is
now occurring fastest in low and middle-income
countries.
By 2050 about 80% of the elderly will be living in
developing countries
With the increase in the life expectancy of the
world population ageing is now a global issue.
Elder abuse is on the increase as the social
dynamics change.
 physical,
 psychological,
 emotional,
 financial due to neglect.

13. Ageing and related problem
Impacts of an Ageing population:
-Increase in the dependency ratio
-Increase government spending on health care and pensions
-Fall in productivity and growth of the country
-Shortage of labor force
-Changing sectors within the economy
Government responses to an ageing population:
-Raise the retirement age
-Increase the importance of the private sector in providing pension
and health care
-Increase tax to pay for pension cost.

14. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
2040 2050
Period
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Expectationoflifeatbirth(years)
More developed
World
Less developed
Least developed
Source: Population division of the Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, United States Secretariat
(2003). World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations.
Life expectancy trends and Aging

15. Population of Bangladesh, Growth Rate per Annum
and Density Per Sq. Km. Area, 1700- 2011
Year Population
(in million)
Growth rate Density per Sq. Km.
1700
1750
1770
1800
1850
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1974
1981
1991
2001
2011
17
19
15
17
20
25
27
29
32
33
36
42
44
55
76
90
111
131
142
-
0.20
-1.20
0.40
0.30
0.90
0.80
0.69
0.94
0.60
0.74
1.70
0.50
2.26
2.48
2.32
2.17
1.54
1.34
-
-
-
-
-
-
196
214
225
241
285
299
374
518
609
755
876
936
964
ources: M. Obaidullah, n.d.; Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 2015

16. The historical trend of population growth rate
suggests that the estimated population of 17
million in 1700 took 230 years to double in 1931.
The second doubling took only 43 years, i.e., the
population of 1931 doubled its size in 1974.
Third doubling occurred in just about 30 years in
2005.

17. Most Populous Countries with Density, 2010 & 2050
Source: PRB, 2010 World Population Data Sheet, BBS 2011, and
2010 2050
Country Population
(millions)
Population
Density/Sq. Km.
Country Population
(millions)
China 1,338 140 India 1,748
India 1,189 362 China 1,437
United States 310 32 United States 423
Indonesia 235 124 Pakistan 335
Brazil 193 23 Nigeria 326
Pakistan 185 232 Indonesia 309
Nigeria 158 171 Bangladesh 226
Bangladesh 142 964 Brazil 215
Russia 142 8 Ethiopia 174
Japan 127 337 Congo. Demo. Rep. 166

18. Broad Age Groups and Dependency Ratio, 1911-
2005
Year Broad Age Groups Dependency
Ratio
0-14 Yrs. 15-59 Yrs. 60+ Yrs.
1911 42.3 53.3 4.4 88
1921 42.3 53.6 4.1 S7
1931 41.9 54.9 3.2 82
1941 41.4 55.1 3.5 S2
1951 42.2 53.5 4.4 87
1961 46.0 48.8 5.2 105
1974 48.0 46.3 5.7 116
1981 46.7 47.8 5.5 109
1991 45.1 49.5 5.4 102
2001 39.4 54.9 5.7 76
2005 37.9 55.9 6.2 79
Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 1999 and 2006
18

19. Ageing Situation in Bangladesh
Year Total Population
(in million)
Population (60+) % of the
total
2001 130.02 7.97 6.0
2006 141.80 8.49 6.1
2011 151.41 9.77 6.5
2016 160.99 11.32 7.0
2021 171.71 14.10 8.2
2026 182.24 18.07 9.9
2031 191.61 22.15 11.6
2036 199.52 27.34 13.7
2041 206.46 31.89 15.4
2046 212.85 36.93 17.4
2051 218.64 44.10 20.2

20. Declining Fertility
Year, Source TFR
1960-62, NIS
1963-65, NIS
1966-68, NIS
1975, BFS
1983, CPS
1985, CPS
1989, CPS
1991, CPS
1993-1994, BDHS
1996-1997, BDHS
1999-2000, BDHS
2004, BDHS
2007, BDHS
2010, BMMS
7.6
7.0
6.0
6.3
4.94
4.61
4.88
4.26
3.40
3.30
3.30
3.00
2.70
2.5

21. 6.3
5.1
4.3
3.4 3.3 3.3
3.0
2.7
1975
BFS
1989
BFS
1991
CPS
1993-94
BDHS
1996-97
BDHS
1999-
2000
BDHS
2004
BDHS
2007
BDHS
Trends in total fertility rate

22. Demographic Profile of Bangladesh
 Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated country in the
world, 1,237.51 persons per square kilometer. (Based on the CIA World
Fact Book 2012 )
 Male and female ratio is 104: 100
 Rural population higher than urban population (73:37)
 Total civilian labor force was about 76 million, About 45
percent labor force is engaged in agricultural activities
 Unemployment rate increased to 5.1 per cent in 2009 that does
not reflect severity, except looking the under-employment rate of
28.7 per cent. (Total 33.8 percent)
 Per capita GNI in Bangladesh :1,190 USD (Source: BBS, 2013-14)
 Real GDP growth rate 6.12% (Source: BBS, 2013-14)

23. Demographics of Bangladesh
Current Population: 161,083,804 (CIA World Fact Book 2013,
July 2012 estimate )
Population growth
rate:
1.579% (2012 est.)
Birth rate: 22.53 births/1,000 population (2012
est.)
Death rate: 5.71 deaths/1,000 population (July
2012 est.)
Life expectancy: 70.06 years (2013 est.)
–male: 68.21 years
–female: 71.98 years (2012 est.)
Fertility rate: 2.55 children born/woman (2012
est.)
Infant mortality rate: 48.99 deaths/1,000 live births

24. Census Year
Population
(million)
Percent
Average Annual
Growth Rate
1901 .70 2.43 -
1911 .81 2.55 1.39
1921 .88 2.64 0.85
1931 1.07 3.02 2.00
1941 1.54 3.66 3.59
1951 1.82 4.33 1.69
1961 2.64 5.19 3.75
1974 6.27 8.78 6.62
1981 13.23 15.18 10.63
1991 22.46 20.15 5.43
2001 28.61 23.10 3.15
2008 36.31 25.10 3.37
Growth Rate of Urban Population 1901-2008
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2009.

25. Dhaka Compared to Other Urban
Agglomerations in 2010 and 2025
Rank Agglomeration 2010
Population
(million)
Rank Agglomeration 2025
Population
(million)
1. Tokyo 36.7 1. Tokyo 37.1
2. Delhi 22.2 2. Delhi 28.6
3. Sao Paulo 20.3 3. Mumbai 25.8
4. Mumbai 20.0 4. Sao Paulo 21.7
5. Mexico City 19.5 5. Dhaka 20.9
6. New York 19.4 6. Mexico City 20.7
7. Shanghai 16.6 7. New York 20.6
8. Kolkata 15.6 8. Kolkata 20.1
9. Dhaka 15.0 9. Shanghai 20.0
10. Karachi 13.1 10. Karachi 18.7