This document discusses the impacts of climate change on livestock production in Nepal's Gandaki River Basin. It finds that: 1) Local farmers have observed increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns that align with broader climate trends in the region. 2) Major problems caused by climate change include difficulties managing animal feed/pasture (49%) and increased disease outbreaks (38%). 3) Changes are negatively impacting livestock performance, with reduced milk production (23%) being the most common issue. 4) Recommendations include increasing climate change awareness among farmers and using this research to help authorities develop adaptation plans for the livestock sector.

1. 1

2. Mohan P Sharma , AFU, Rampur
Ajay K Jha, USU, Colorado, USA,
Nir Y. Krakauer, The City College of the City
University of New York, USA
Tarendra Lakhankar,The City College of the City
University of New York , USA
Jeeban Panthi, Small Earth Nepal
Chandra Kant Dhakal, IAAS, Lamjung Campus,
Nepal

3. 1. INTRODUCTION
• Livestock is an integral part of the mixed system and socio-
economical life in the country, and contributes nearly 26% to the
total Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (MOAD, 2012).
• Livestock serve many purposes for small farmers in Nepal,
supplying meat, milk, eggs, leather, wool, draft power, and
manure, among other benefits.
• Livestock systems vary along the elevation gradient, from
buffalo dominated in the low elevations of the Terai to chauri
and yaks in the high Mountain region.
• The government has prioritized the livestock sector. The APP has
a set target to increase the livestock growth from 2.64% to
6.25% by 2014/15 (APP, 1995).
• However, the present production of livestock in Nepal is a
decreasing one.
3

4. INTRODUCTION contd..
• Nepal, with a population of 26.6 million (CBS, 2011) ranks 157
out of 182 countries (UNDP, 2012), the world’s fourth most
vulnerable country to climate change (Maplecroft, 2011).
• The Nepal’s average temperature has increased by 1.8ºC from
1975 to 2006 (Malla, 2008).
• Climate change effects mostly felt by developing countries
because of lack of resources, knowledge, veterinarian extension
services and research technology development (FAO, 2008).
• Studies on livestock and climate change reveal that climate
change adversely affects the animal health and livestock
production.
• The limited herbaceous production, heat stress from higher
temperature, and limited water intake due to the decrease in
rainfall could cause reduced milk yields in animals and an
increased incidence of some diseases.
4

6. • Climate hazards are leading contributors to livestock losses,
directly (e.g. animals lost in floods) or indirectly (e.g. loss of
feed and fodder crops due to floods or drought resulting in
slow growth and vulnerability to disease) (Sharma, 2009).
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007)
suggests that within the agricultural sector livestock are among
the most climate sensitive economic areas.
• Gandaki River Basin, where the research was conducted, is
particularly vulnerable because it lies in the Himalayas’ rain
shadow and relies on river flows from mountain snow and ice
cover for water supplies (Manandhar et al., 2012).
• With this back drop this paper focused to analyze the
perception to climate change, its effects on livestock
production as well as tries to make the necessary policy
recommendations.
INTRODUCTION Contd..
6

7. 2. METHODOLOGY
Study sites and sampling
• This research was based in the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal.
• The Gandaki River Basin (GRB), Nepal spreads from
27.21'45'' to 28036'36'' degree north longitude to 83008'00''-
84053'00'' degree east latitude and elevation ranging from
about 144 Masl to 8167 Masl (DDC, 2002).
• The average temperature of this area ranges from -9 oC in
Mustang to 42.5oC in Chitwan. Average annual rainfall is
26.58 mms in Mustang to 2500 mm in Chitwan.
• Three districts namely; Dhading, Kapilbastu and Syangja,
were selected purposively as livelihood of the most of the
people hinge on the agriculture and livestock sector
7

8. Climatic Vs Livelihood in GRB

9. Figure 1. Districts under study in GRB

10. District Sample size
Dhading 193
Syangja 178
Kapilbastu 180
Total 551
A total of 551 randomly sampled household were considered
for the survey from these districts. Sampling distribution is
shown in the Table 1.
Table 1. Sampling distribution by districts
The primary data was collected through household survey
using pretested structured questionnaire via face to face
interview on January 2014.

11. Household survey using random sampling

12. RESULTS

13. Climate Change in GRB: Past
• Higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation were
observed on the dominant area in recent decades (1980s, 1990s
and 2000s) compared to the long term average (1971-2009).
Fig: Precipitation anomaly (%) of each decade compare to long
term average of 1971-2009
Fig: Temperature anomaly (oc) of each decade compare to long
term average of 1971-2009

14. Climate Change in GRB: Extreme Events
• Increasing trend in percentage of warm days and nights
whereas the cool nights and cool days are found to be
decreasing
• Very wet days and extremely wet days are increasing
• Showed positive trend of consecutive dry days (CDD)
Fig: Trend of very wet days Fig: Trend of consecutive dry days (CDD)

15. Climate Change in GRB: Drought
• Increasing trend in both drought severity and frequency
drought risk in recent decades has become more serious both
in severity and spatial extent
Fig: Trend of drought index (Decreasing trend indicate
increasing drought)
Fig: Time series of drought occurrence

16. Climate Change in GRB: Future
• Climate model shows that the mean temperature will increase
by 1.9 0C to 3.1 oC in 2030-2060 and precipitation will change
by -8% to 12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period
(1970-2000).
• In summary: Average temperature increases at least 2°C and
dry region is becoming dryer and wet is becoming wetter.
Fig: projected changes in mean temperature (oc) in 2030-
2060compared to 1970-2000 using PRECIS-A1B scenario
Fig: projected changes in annual precipitation (%) in 2030-
2060compared to 1970-2000 using PRECIS-A1B scenario

17. Knowledge on climate change
Figure 2- Percentage Livestock keepers experiencing climate change
Figure 3- Clarity on Knowledge about climate change among those who experienced climate change is happening
33
43 44 39
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dhading Syangja Kapilbastu Total
Percentage
Districts
Dhading
Syangja
Kapilbastu
Total
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dhading Syangja Kapilbastu Total
81
67
100
83
Percentage

18.  These figures showed that less than half (39%)
livestock holders found to be heard about climate
change.
 Livestock keepers from Kapilbastu were
experiencing change in climatic parameters
relatively more than Dhading and Syangja.
 More specially, 83% of them could define the
climate change more correctly.
 Some of them experienced sensitivity of changing
precipitation and temperature to livestock
production.

19. Source of
Communication Dhading Syangja Kapilbastu Total
Radio/TV
55 (87.30) 64 (83.12) 50 (67.57) 169 (78.97)
Teacher
5 (7.94) 7 (9.09) 14 (18.92) 26 (12.15)
Newspaper
3 (4.76) 4 (5.19) 2 (2.70) 9 (4.21)
Staff of NGO
0 (0.00) 2 (2.60) 4 (5.41) 6 (2.80)
Government
office/
Agencies
0 (0.00) 0 (0.00) 3 (4.05) 3 (1.40)
Table 2. Source of information used by livestock keepers in the GRB
Figure in the parenthesis indicates percentage

20. Radio and television were observed as the
most effective sources (79%) of information to
have climatic knowledge while government
agencies played least role in knowledge
dissemination on climatic issues.

21. Problem Kapilbastu Syangja Dhading Total
Managing feed and
pasture
63 (35.00) 89 (50.00) 118 (61.14) 270 (49.00)
Outbreak of animal
disease 90 (49.78) 60 (33.98) 59 (30.56) 209 (37.93)
Incidence of external
parasite
79 (44.12) 68 (38.32) 50 (25.95) 198 (35.93)
Water scarcity
39 (21.67) 62 (34.83) 66 (30.49) 186 (30.49)
Table 3 . Climate change impact on livestock production due to change in
precipitation and temperature
Figure in the parenthesis indicates percentage

22. We found that problem of managing animal feed and
pasture (49%), outbreak of internal, animal disorder and
external parasites (38%), were the major impacts on
livestock of change in precipitation while heat stress and
low productivity of livestock were noticeable impacts of
change in temperature.
Managing feed and pasture was the major in both
Dhading (61.14%) and Syagja (50.00), while outbreak of
animal disease and disorder (49.78%) followed by
incidence of animal external parasite (44.12%) was
found as the major problem in Kapilbastu.While
managing feed was the major problem induced due to
climate change in Dahding and Syagja.

23. 24
13 13
17
5
24
19
17
10
3
19
31
29
12
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Reduction in
milk
Infertility Reduction in
feed intake
Decline in
meat
production
Decline in egg
production
Percentage
Dhading
Syagja
Kapilbastu
Fig. Effect of climate change on livestock performance

24. • Changing climatic situation might directly or
indirectly affect the animal performance.
• Reduction in milk production and shortened
lactation period (23%) was found as the major
climatic induced problem in the GRB followed by
infertility.
• Furthermore, infertility (31%) and reduction in
feed intake (29%) were observed as the major
effects of climate change in Kapilbastu due to
heat stress and increased temperature.

25. • Similarly, two third farmers observed negative
effects of changing climatic pattern in human
derived from livestock human interaction.

26. 4 CONCLUSION
• Results confirmed that perception of climate change by the
farmers in the study sites was in line with findings of other
researchers around the world. Farmers were able to
recognize that temperature had increased and precipitation
had been dwindled.
• Climate change is one of the challenges to environment-
human security and poses threat to the livelihood of people
who rely more in the agriculture and livestock sector since
these sectors are more susceptible to the climate induced
disasters and calamities.
• The public extension service needs to train and employ
qualified local smallholder farmers to fill the extension gap

27. 5 Recommendations
• Awareness campaign on climate change is
recommended among livestock holders for
climate information there by allowing them to
increase their resilience and adaptive capacity.
• Moreover, the research results in this study
would serve the livestock research and
development related authorities for formulate the
action plan for adaptation of climate change in
livestock sector in the rural areas

28. 6 Acknowledgments