The document summarizes a study on using tree rings to reconstruct climate in the Nepal Himalaya. The study had several objectives: to assess treeline dynamics with climate change, and reconstruct past climate. Tree cores were collected from over 600 trees across several sites. Ring widths were measured and used to develop climate chronologies. The chronologies showed temperature reconstruction identified periods of warming and cooling with no consistent trend. Spring temperatures correlated negatively with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, suggesting warm springs occur during cool Pacific SSTs. The treeline was found to be shifting upward over the last 160 years.

1. 12 January, 2015
International Conference on Climate Change: Innovation and Resilience for Sustainable Livelihood
12-14 January 2015, Kathmandu, Nepal

2. Outline
 Motivation/Background
 Objectives
 Study area
 Materials and methods
 Results and discussion
 Conclusion

3. MOTIVATION -1
• Dendrochronology
Greek words,
dendron (= tree)
chronos (= time)
logos (= the study of)
 Tree is a recorder &
biological databank
 Versatile discipline = wider
applications
 Tree rings = Sources of
proxy climatic data

4. MOTIVATION-2
Treelines = sensitive bio-monitors of CC
4
Photo: Mai-He Li 2010
Photo: Shiba Raj Ghimire 2011

5. OBJECTIVES
 To assess treeline dynamics in the Nepal
Himalaya with Environmental (climate)
change
 To reconstruct past climate of the Nepal
Himalaya

6. Study Area and Sites

7. Local climate trend
Annual temperature change in Chame station(°C)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Precipitation(mm)
Year
KCA RARA ANCA LNP
y = 0.113x - 221.8
R² = 0.179, P<0.06
0
5
10
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Temperature(°C)
Year
Annual average temperature in Langtang

8. A. Ecological mapping
8
Materials and Methods

9. Climate reconstruction and Teleconnection analysis
Dpl-R; KNMI Climate Explorer
Regeneration and growth - climate relationship
DPL-R, Dendroclim2002, = Correlation, regression
Population demography
study
Standardization and
Chronology dev- ARSTAN
Cross dating = Alignment plotting, math graphs, CDI
Error checking = COFECHA
Measurement- LINTAB5
Counting and Dating- Stereo Microscope
Air-drying, Mounting, Sanding & Polishing
Field visit and sample collection: >600 core samples
Material and Methods
B. Dendrochronological Study

10. Data analysis…
10
(m/yr)
positionsobetween twdifferenceTime
positionOld-positionRecent
shiftofRate 
Camarero and Gutiérrez 2004, Climatic Change 63: 181–200
Materials and Methods…

11. Dendrochronological study in
Nepal = a glimpse
11
• More than 25 districts
• Over 20 species
.
.
.
Updated on Gaire et al 2013, FUUAST JOB
• Started in late 1970s
• First Institutional Lab- 2009
in NAST

12. Position of treeline or species limit (m asl)
KCA MBNP SNP LNP MCA RNP ANCA
Abies
Limit
4136 3992-
4060
4062-
4141
3950 3984 3870 3763-
3768
Betula
Limit
4132 NA 4047-
4132
>3950 4003 3903-
3953
3802-
3845
RESULTS

13. Treeline dynamics at Sagarmatha NP

14. 0
5
10
15
20
25
1797 1827 1857 1887 1917 1947 1977 2007
Frequency(%)
Age class (year)
A. spectabilis
Treeline dynamics at Langtang NP-1
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
No.ofstem
DBH class (cm)
A. spectabilis
0
5
10
15
0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-40
40-45
45-50
50-55
No.ofstem
DBH class (cm)
B. utilis
0
20
40
60
3730 3780 3830
AverageAge(yr)
Elevation (m, asl)
Gaire et al (2011), NJST

15. Spatio-
temporal
variation in
establishment
Treeline dynamics in Manaslu CA
NPGaire,M
Koirala,DRBhuju,
HPBorgaonkar,
Climateofthe
Past,2014

16. Tree species limit shift- MCA
 Average shift of A. spectabilis is 26.1 m per decade in past 160 yrs

17. Treeline Dynamics at Rara NP

18. Site chronologies of Abies spectabilis
18
Humla Manaslu CA Langtang NP Sagarmatha NP
Humla 1
Manaslu CA 0.128637 1
Langtang NP 0.150578 0.411815 1
Sagarmatha NP 0.085789 0.220071 0.203266 1

19. (a)
( c)
(b)
(d)
Climatic- tree growth & regeneration
Fig.6. Climate–growth & regeneration relationship; Abies ring width (a) and regeneration (b)
at Manaslu, Abies ring width at Langatang ( c), Humla(d). Symbols over the bar indicate the
level of significance of correlation coefficient.

20. Mean MJJA Tempr Reconstruction
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
1867 1887 1907 1927 1947 1967 1987 2007
Temperature(°C)
Year
MJJA_Reconstucted MJJA_Observed 10 per. Mov. Avg. (MJJA_Reconstucted)
Manaslu Region Gaire et al 2013, CPD

21. Fig. 3 Tree-ring chronology of P. smithiana extending from AD 1591 to 2012 along with
sample depth and EPS threshold cut off. The thick line represents the 10 years spline-
smoothing curve
Ring width Chronology from Western Nepal
Himalaya U.K. Thapa, S.K. Shah, N.P.Gaire, D.R. Bhuju, Climate Dyamics
(In Press) DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2457-1

22. Fig. 7 The reconstructed
March–May temperature
data filtered with a
smoothing spline with a
50 % frequency cut off of
10 years
Fig. Cold and Warm
periods in reconstructed
March–May temperature
MAM temp reconstruction in Western Nepal
Himalaya U.K. Thapa, S.K. Shah, N.P. Gaire, D.R. Bhuju, Climate Dynamics (In Press)

23. Fig: Correlation between
observed and estimated
temperature data and Sea
Surface Temperature (SST)
index for tropical Pacific
Ocean for the time period of
AD 1897–2012
Mean MAM Temp Reconstruction…
U.K. Thapa, et al (In
Press)
• The negative relationships
suggest that warm (cool)
spring season over the
western Nepal Himalaya
region are associated with
cool (warm) SSTs in the
following seasons.
• Climate of western Nepal has
linkages with spatio-temporal
climatic variability at a global
scale.

24. Conclusions
• Dynamic treeline with differential regeneration and shifting of
species;Species-specific response to climate change
• The temperature reconstruction identified several periods of
warming and cooling but no consistent trend
• The negative relationships with SST and different Nino indices
suggest that warm (cool) spring season over the western
Nepal Himalaya region are associated with cool (warm) SSTs
in the following seasons
Way forward
• Extend studies in more treeline sites incorporating all treeline
forming species for modeling species distribution and treeline
position
• Extend dendroclimatic study & cover areas like
dendrohydrology, dendroglaciology, dendrogeomorphology,
etc in Nepal

25. Acknowledgements
 Conference Organizing Team
 Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)
 CDES-TU
 DHM, DNPWC, NTNC
 Friends
 Field assistants
 Local peoples
 Other helping hands