The document discusses various challenges related to water resource management in the 21st century. It covers topics such as planetary boundaries, population density, global freshwater fluxes, climate drivers and their impact on runoff, climate model projections, and information management. Examples and data are provided on issues like access to water and sanitation, deaths from water-related illnesses, locust swarms, urbanization, and changes in runoff under climate change scenarios.

1. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 1
Water Resource Management
Challenges in the 21st Century
Balázs M. Fekete
Department of Civil Engineering
CUNY CREST Institute
CUNY Environmental CrossRoads Initiative
The City College of New York
City University of New York

2. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 2
Planetary Boundaries
Rockström et al., Nature 2009

3. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 3
Balanced Triangle
Bogardi et al., COSUST 2013

4. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 4
Desert Locust
Swarm size: 1200 km2
Density: 40-80×106 l
lt/km2
Weight: 2g
http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/bugs/locust.html
ppl/km2
ha/ppl
World 51.2 1.96
Urban 943.9 0.11
Urban + Cultivated 350.2 0.29
Australia 2.8 36.1
Bangladesh 1083.7 0.09
European Union 113.7 0.88
Hungary 106.5 0.94
India 351.9 0.26
Japan 336.3 0.30
The Netherlands 402.4 0.25
United States 31.2 2.98
Desert Locust Swarm 1100.0 0.09

5. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 5
Physical Boundaries
Population Density ppl/km2
ha/ppl
Eurpean Union 113.7 0.880
India 351.9 0.284
United States 31.2 3.205
World 51.2 1.953
Urban 943.9 0.106
Urban + Cultivated 350.2 0.286
Population Density ppl/km2
ha/ppl
New York, USA 1,776 0.056
Paris, France 2,845 0.035
Tokyo, Japan 4,357 0.023
Beijing, China 5,216 0.019
Kathmandu, Nepal 18,433 0.054
Lima, Peru 14,506 0.069

6. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 6
Do the Math
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math

7. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 7
Doubled Energy Use Distribution
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Per Capita [W] Total [TW] Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Population
PerCapitaConsumption[W]
TotalConsumption[TW]
2000 kCal day-1
~ 100 W Solar insolation over land is 183 W m-2

8. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 8
Random Numbers
● 0.9 billion people has no access to safe drinking
water
● 2.3 billion people has no piped water in their home
● 2.6 billion people has no proper sanitation
● 1.1 billion people defecate in the open
● 2 million people (mostly children) die every year
due to diarrheal diseases (285/million)
● 70,000 mostly elderly people died (harvesting) in
the 2003 European heatwave affecting 0.5 billion
population (140/million)
● 184 l/capita released untreated would require
18,720 km3
yr-1
dilution water

9. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 9
Global Freshwater Fluxes to Oceans
Source Discharge
Baumgartner and Reichel (1975) 37,713
Korzoun et al. (1978) 46,900
L’vovich et al. (1990) 39,700
Oki et al. (1995) 22,311
Postel, et al. (1996) 40,700
Grabs, et al. (1996) 42,700
Nijssen et al. (2001) 36,103
Fekete, et al. (2002) 38,320
Dai, et al. (2009) 37,288
Schlosser and Houser (2007) 36,000
Syed et al. (2010) 32,851
Wisser et al. (2010a) 37,405
Haddeland et al. (2011) 42,000 – 66,000

10. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 10
Climate Drivers and Runoff Response
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Min. Max.
StdDev StdDev-
AirTemperature[ºC]
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
AM GO OS
TG Max. StdDev
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
AM GO OS
TG Max. StdDev
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Minimum Maximum
StdDev StdDev-
Precipitation[mm/yr]
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
AM GO OS
TG StdDev StdDev-
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
AM GO OS
TG StdDev StdDev-
20th
Century 2030 2050
-100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
RunoffChange[mm/yr]
-60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00
-75.0
-55.0
-35.0
-15.0
5.0
25.0
45.0
65.0
AM GO OS TG
-60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00
-75.0
-55.0
-35.0
-15.0
5.0
25.0
45.0
65.0
AM GO OS TG

11. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 11
GCM Climate Forcings

12. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 12
Runoff Estimates Using ISI-MIP Data
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5
Time [yr]
Runoff[mm/yr]
HadGEM2-ES
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5
Time [yr]
Runoff[mm/yr]
IPSL-CM5A-LR
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5
Time [yr]
Runoff[mm/yr]
GFDL-ESM2M
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
250
300
350
400
450
500
RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5
Time [yr]
Runoff[mm/yr]
NorESM1-M

13. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 13
Temperature Stations in NCDC
D'Aleo and Watts, 2010

14. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 14
Tornado Graph of GRDC's Data Archive

15. Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 15
Information Age