1. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Simulations of Future Drought Conditions in Central
Asia CORDEX Region 8 by Using RegCM 4.3.5
Levent Kurnaz
Bogazici University
Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies

2. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Statistical
Downscaling
Dynamical
Downscaling
Regional Downscaling

3. Center for Climate Change
and Policy StudiesThe Issue

4. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Konya Basin (Turkey) 10 km Resolution Evaporation
The Problem

5. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
CORDEX and Large Scale Regional
Climate Modelling

6. Bogazici University
Climate Science GroupCORDEX domains

7. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Our CORDEX Regions

8. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Temperature

9. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Temperature

10. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Temperature

11. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Temperature

12. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Temperature

13. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Precipitation

14. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Precipitation

15. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Precipitation

16. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Precipitation

17. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Resolution Precipitation

18. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Region 8 (Central Asia) 50 km Res. Prec. Variability

19. Center for Climate Change
and Policy StudiesThe Domain

20. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies3 Month Standardized Precipitation
Index

21. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies3 Month Standardized Precipitation
Index

22. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies3 Month Standardized Precipitation
Index Summary
HADGEMRF HADGEM45 HADGEM85 MPIRF MPI45 MPI85
extremely wet 0.81% 0.56% 1.40% 1.08% 0.84% 0.56%
very wet 4.05% 4.47% 3.35% 4.86% 5.31% 6.70%
moderately
wet
14.05% 13.97% 15.64% 11.62% 13.69% 10.06%
near normal 61.08% 60.61% 60.61% 65.14% 62.01% 62.57%
moderately
dry
14.32% 13.97% 12.01% 10.00% 10.89% 14.25%
severely dry 3.78% 5.59% 5.31% 5.14% 6.42% 4.75%
extremely dry 1.89% 0.84% 1.68% 2.16% 0.84% 1.12%

23. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies12 Month Standardized Precipitation
Index Summary
HADGEMRF
HADGEM4
5
HADGEM8
5
MPIRF MPI45 MPI85
extremely wet 2.22% 0.86% 2.01% 2.49% 4.58% 1.72%
very wet 3.88% 3.44% 2.29% 4.16% 5.16% 3.72%
moderately wet 11.91% 9.74% 15.19% 8.31% 7.16% 11.75%
near normal 67.59% 69.05% 64.76% 70.36% 68.48% 65.04%
moderately dry 6.65% 8.88% 10.03% 8.59% 9.17% 10.03%
severely dry 4.99% 3.72% 3.44% 2.22% 4.87% 4.58%
extremely dry 2.77% 4.30% 2.29% 3.88% 0.57% 3.15%

24. Center for Climate Change
and Policy Studies
Thank you for your attention
:)