The document discusses glaciers and related hazards in Tajikistan. It notes that Tajikistan's glaciers are retreating due to climate change, causing glacier lake outburst floods that threaten downstream communities. Specifically, it summarizes that the response of glacial environments to climate change may be rapid and impact populations, but there is lack of knowledge about high-altitude conditions and trends in Tajikistan. Further research, monitoring, and risk mitigation strategies are needed to address these issues.

1. IAG
Glacier changes and related high mountain
hazards in Tajikistan
Martin Mergili
Chris Kopf, Jean F. Schneider
Institute of Applied Geology, BOKU University, Vienna, Austria
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010

2. IAG Content
Content of the presentation
> 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan
> 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends
> 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
> 4 Conclusions
> 5 Risk mitigation strategies
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 2

3. IAG 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan
Glaciers of Central Asia
Pamir
Dataset Description Source
WGI World Glacier Inventory point dataset, one observation NSIDC Boulder, WGMS Zurich
location, surface area, topography nsidc.org/data/glacier_inventory/
GLIMS Global Land Ice polygon and point datasets NSIDC Boulder, Univ. of Arizona
Measurements from Space geometric information www.glims.org
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 3

4. IAG 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan
Academy of Sciences Range
Korzhenevskaya Peak
7105 m Ismoili Somoni Peak
7495 m
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 4

5. IAG 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan
Fedchenko Glacier
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 5

6. IAG 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan
Jirgital
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 6

7. IAG 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends
Precipitation and discharge
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 7

8. IAG
Observed and predicted climatic
trends
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 8

9. IAG 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends
Example of temperature trend
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 9

10. IAG 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends
Climate projections
> Mean annual temperature +1.8 – 2.9°C until 2050 for
Tajikistan (National Action Plan for Climate Change
Mitigation)
> Mean annual temperature +3.7°C until 2100 for
Central Asia (4th IPCC Report 2007)
> More pronounced warming in high-altitude areas
(4th IPCC Report 2007)
> High uncertainties and regional differences in the
predicted trends of precipitation, but in general
increase in winter and decrease in the remaining
seasons (4th IPCC Report 2007)
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 10

11. IAG
Glacier fluctuations and related
hazards
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 11

12. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Glacier mass balances
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 12

13. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Case study: Southern Pamir
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 13

14. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Glacial lakes in the S. Pamir
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 14

15. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Dashtdara
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 15

16. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Lake outburst floods
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 16

17. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
The Dasht event (2002)
before
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 17

18. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
The Dasht event (2002)
after
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 18

19. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Varshedzdara and Andarabadj
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 19

20. IAG 6 Needs for further research
Hazard indication map
Outburst hazard
Extremely high
Very high
High
Medium
Moderate
Low
Negligible
0 20 40 60 80
Number of lakes
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 20

21. IAG 6 Needs for further research
Hazard indication map
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 21

22. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Case study: Northern Pamir
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 22

23. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Transalai Range
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 23

24. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards
Transalai
Range Dzerzhinskogo
Glacier
Little Saukdara
Glacier
2002
2007
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 24

25. IAG 4 Conclusions
Essentials
> The response of glacial environments to climate
change may be diverse
> Environmental changes may occur rapidly and have
significant consequences for the population
> There is lack of knowledge on high-altitude
meteorological conditions and trends
> Consequently, the knowledge on the high mountain
environment of Tajikistan is insufficient
> But: people depend on this environment
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 25

26. IAG 6 Conclusions
Needs for further research
> (Re)establishment of high-altitude meteorological and
hydrological stations
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 26

27. IAG 4 Conclusions
Needs for further research
> (Re)establishment of high-altitude meteorological and
hydrological stations
> Coordinated efforts of consistent multi-temporal mapping
of glaciers from satellite imagery, based on the existing
datasets
> Focussed in-depth research regarding ice volumes, mass
balances, permafrost, glacial lakes etc.
> Continuous monitoring of hazardous and potentially
hazardous situations in order to react adequately in case
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 27

28. IAG 5 Risk mitigation strategies
From research to mitigation
Awareness-raising
Preparedness-building
Hazard and Risk
Assessment
Risk
Recommendations Mitigation
Monitoring
Emergency warning
Technical measures
Involvement of local agencies and population
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 28

29. IAG 5 Risk mitigation strategies
Capacity-building is essential!
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 29

30. IAG 5 Risk mitigation strategies
Handing over
Responsibility
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 30

31. IAG
Discussion
Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 31