The document summarizes the positions of Central Asian countries on hydropower projects and water management in the region: - Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan support developing their hydropower potential but downstream countries like Uzbekistan want independent international assessments of projects. - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan want guarantees from studies that new dams will not significantly harm downstream water supply. - Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan advocate resolving issues based on international law and conducting independent impact assessments of projects. - The World Bank outlined a five-point program to oversee consultant studies of Tajikistan's Rogun dam project and facilitate riparian involvement to address regional concerns.

1. Hydropower Flashpoints and
Water Security Challenges
in Central Asia
Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev
US Embassy, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
These slides are personal opinion only.
They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.

2. U.S. Department of State
Regional Environmental, Science, Technology and
Health (ESTH) Office in Central Asia
 Based in Astana, Kazakhstan;
 Staff: Hub officer, two local staff, Pol/Econ/ESTH officers at
each other US Missions;
 Reports to Bureau of Oceans and International
Environmental and Scientific Affairs (OES) and Bureau of
South and Central Asian Affairs (SCA);
 Facilitation of collaboration between US and Central Asian
countries in ESTH areas; bilateral ESTH-related issues;
 Example: Science and Technology cooperation
agreements between US and Kazakhstan (signed March
2010) and US and Uzbekistan (signed Dec 2010)
2

3. Central Asian ESTH News
Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In Region
02/11/2008
Regional Politics Get In Way of
Bringing Power to the People
Tajikistan Warns Of Possible 03/03/2007
Water Shortage Crisis World Bank Group
01/21/2009 Statement on Water-
Energy in Central
Asia
03/11/2010
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
to Build Hydro Power
Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Station, Despite
Uzbekistan Will Halve Uzbekistan’s Objection
Uzbek Electricity Talks
Energy To Tajikistan 04/12/2009
01/21/2009
02/12/2010
Examination of
Allies: What Side of
the Fence will
Moscow Take in the
Water Dispute?
Tajik President Asks UN 04/22/2006
Battle Lines Drawn In Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek to Help Solve Central
Central Asian Water Relations Asia’s Water Problem
Dispute 03/12/2009 04/15/2007
04/19/2006 3

4. Central Asia Statistics
Countries Population GDP Dependence Energy Food ODA Military
(106) (109 USD) on TW Security Security (106 USD) Spending
(2009) (2009) (%) (%) (%) (2006) (109 USD)
(2010) (2007)
Kyrgyzstan 5.3 4.6 0 73 43 311 0.17
Tajikistan 7.0 5.0 0 69 69 240 0.53
Upstream 12.3 9.6 0 71 56 551 0.7
Kazakhstan 15.9 115 42 100 0 172 1.6
Turkmenistan 5.1 20 94 100 50 26 1.1
Uzbekistan 27.8 32 77 100 45 149 1.6
Downstream 48.8 139 71 100 32 347 4.3
Central Asia 61.1 167 18 86 41 898 5.0
4

5. Understanding Central Asia
HISTORY LEGACY RELIGION NATION-BUILDING
POLITICS ECONOMICS SECURITY GEOPOLITICS

6. Understanding Water in Central Asia
Resource sovereignty Crumbling infrastructure Planned Projects
Access to water Environmental security Drought & floods Rivalry
Energy security Water for Afghanistan Climate change Declaratory regionalism

7. TAJIKISTAN
1 ROGHUN
UZBEKISTAN Shurob
2 ROGHUN
NUREK Status: Under construction
3 Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation
Volume: 13 km3
SANGTUDA 1 & 2 Baipaza Capacity: 3600 MW
4 Cost: 2.2-5 Billion USD
Status: Under construction
TURKMENISTAN Purpose: Hydropower
Duration: 2005-2010 6
5 Sangtuda-1
Capacity: 670+220 MW Sangtuda-2
Cost: 650 and 182 Million USD
7 Golovnaya
Perepadnaya 8
10 DASHTIJUM
Tsentralnaya 9
DASHTIJUM
Status: Proposed
Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation
Volume: 17.6 km3
Capacity: 4000 MW
Cost: 3.2 Billion USD
AFGHANISTAN

8. Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN
 “…Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along its
domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River…”
Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon
Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council Meeting, Athens,
12/01/2009
 “…The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh
River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is
responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream from
the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water…”
Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the
Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009
 “…Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in
downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in
downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are
being constructed…”
Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the IFAS
Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009
President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
 “…Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining adequate
water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply…”
Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the
Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

9. Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN
 “…in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a
launching of the first hydro-generator of
Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the
country. Construction and launch of this HPP
demonstrates the power of our country, and we do
not intend to abandon the constructions of
Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able
to live well in both winter and summer, and are
increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of
course, we will cooperate on this plan with
Uzbekistan…” Kyrgyzstan's acting President Roza Otunbayeva
presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit of
Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at the hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2,
launching ceremony of the first aggregate of the 08/30/2010
Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010
 “…Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its investment
potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development of alternative
energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the CASAREM, and
primarily in the construction of transmission lines Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-
Pakistan…”
Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz
Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG Summit,
09/27/2010, New York

10. Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN
 “…New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate
existing agreements and are against to international law. Both
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream
countries…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008
 “…Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international
examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary rivers…such
examinations must be carried out under the aegis of UN and include
independent authoritative experts…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009
 “…In accordance with international customary law, upstream countries
are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to prevent,
control and reduce transboundary impacts…”
Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of the
International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008 President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
 “… …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the
interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009
 “…Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller
hydropower plants…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan,
04/24/2009

11. Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN
 “…Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries
downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, need
guarantees [offered by international feasibility studies]…It
is a question of water supply to millions of people…Until
the results of [international] expert testing are available, no
dam should be built…”
Remarks of President Nazarbayev,
Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent,
Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010
 “…"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very large
(and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for the entire
Central Asian region…Why not recall a project to divert
the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia?…”
President of Kazakhstan
Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev,
Press Briefing with President Medvedev, Ust- United Nations
Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010
 “…it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of
transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional projects of
water management…”
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan
www.mfa.kz

12. Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN
 “…we must resolve these issues exclusively based on the
universally accepted norms and principles of international
law taking into account the interests of all States in the
region and with participation of international
organizations…”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
 “…the need for mandatory and transparent independent
international technical, economic and environmental
impact assessment of hydropower projects on rivers at
their early design stages…”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
 “… Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors with
natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve the President of Turkmenistan
problem of energy, we can easterly solve the problem of Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov,
water…” UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
 “…Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to make a
joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a commitment to
maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border rivers...”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009

13. Press Statement of the Regional Director of
World Bank on Roghun Assessment Studies
14

14. World Bank Roghun Project Assessment Studies
- The Five-Point Program -
Consultant The Bank will oversee consultant studies financed under IDA grant and credit to GOT,
(Assessment) including a selection of consultants, contract negotiations and review of all interim and
Studies draft reports. The Bank will also affect direct payment to the consultants. All short-listed
consultants have been selected thru ICB and are experienced in similar projects.
Regional Studies The bank will undertake certain studies independently of GOT, funded thru Bank
managed trust funds. These studies will focus on: (a) alternatives to Roghun to meet
both domestic energy needs and export opportunities; (b) possible mechanisms to
manage reservoir operations with transboundary impacts; and (c) verification of
hydrological data and analysis.
Panels of Experts The Bank will select, manage and fund two International Panels of Experts that will
participate in the studies and provide independent advice, guidance and quality
assurance. Panel members will be well-know in their fields of expertise and will be
drawn from outside former Soviet republics to ensure independence. The
Engineering/Dam Safety Panel will focus on TEAS while the Environment/Social Panel
will focus on the ESIA; however, the Panels shall coordinate and ensure necessary
linkages between the two studies (Note: These Panels are usually convened by the
Borrower)
Riparian The Bank will facilitate a structured process for riparian involvement in the Assessment
Involvement Studies, to include information exchange and access to independent experts. The
specific program will be determined with input from riparians.
Commitments GOT has committed to fully comply with all Bank operational policies and to align
construction with study results; specifically as it concerns the construction of the coffer
dam. The Bank’s involvement is contingent on ongoing GOT commitment to the
operation policies and ensuring no river diversion prior to completion of studies.

15. Tashkent-2002