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International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 218
Assessment the Harm from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on
the Water Inflow to Egypt
Asmaa M. Kamel1, Doaa M. Amin2, Mohamed M. Nour Eldin3
1PhD Student, Assistant Researcher, Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI), National Water Research Center
(NWRC), Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), Egypt
2Researcher, Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI), National Water Research Center (NWRC), Ministry of
Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), Egypt
3Professor, Irrigation and Hydraulic Department, Faculty of Engineering Ain Shams University, Egypt
----------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract - The Nile River is the lifeline for Egypt as it covers
about 95% of its demand. The natural flow at Aswan in Egypt
is very sensitive to any change in the Blue Nile basin; this
means that any upstream development in the Blue Nile Basin
countries affects the inflow to Egypt. The Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the most disputes between
Ethiopia and downstream countries because of its unknown
consequences. In this paper, the Eastern Nile Model (ENM) in
RiverWare software was used to simulate the filling and
operation of GERD reservoir during the period (2017-2060)
for three scenarios and 115 ensembles of hydrological flow
data with six years filling period. The results declares that the
harm from GERD reservoir especially in the filling phase is
catastrophic that could cause drought in Egypt. For instance,
the probability of the High Aswan Dam (HAD) inflow less than
55.5 BCM would reach 70% and the probability of the
shortage during the filling period bigger than 30 BCMreaches
8.7%. Finally, this article gives a qualitative analysis of the
impact on the HAD reservoir from the GERD filling and
operation.
Key Words: River system modelling; Reservoir
simulation; Transboundary Rivers; Eastern Nile;
Riverware
1. INTRODUCTION
The Nile River is the lifeline for Egypt as it covers about95%
of its demand. The Blue Nile contributes by about60%ofthe
inflow to Lake Nasser [1]; this means that any change in the
hydrology of the Blue Nile affects the inflow to Egypt. In
addition, the upstream developments in the Blue Nile Basin
countries affect the water share of Egypt.
In few years ago, the government of Ethiopia is persisting
their development plans by generating hydropower with a
sequence of proposed dams. One of these dams is the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)withfull storageover74
BCM and installed hydropower capacity of 6000 MW. The
GERD is in its last stage of construction and its filling is
approaching. However, regional disputesarecontinuingdue
to its unforeseen impacts on downstream countries.
Building dams is a major hydraulic development that brings
about many environmental, economic and social benefits to
satisfy human needs, such as controlling floods, retaining
sediments [2], providing water for irrigation, adjusting
surface water quantity and quality, and generating
hydropower. On the other hand, dams have several negative
ecological impacts, including clearing/flooding large areas,
increasing humidity of the nearby areas, provision of ideal
habitat that leads to transmission [3]. In addition, the
reservoir operation isa complexproblemthatinvolvesmany
decision variables, multiple objectives as well as
considerable risk and uncertainty [4].
Many efforts were done by many researchers to study the
impact of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
construction on the inflowto LakeNasser.Theconsequences
of this dam could be catastrophic for Egypt. Ramadan et al.
[5] studied the environmental impacts of GERD on the
Egyptian water resources using MODSIM hydrological
model. The study concluded decreasing in the Lake Nasser
active storage by 37.263,25.413,13.287BCM/year when the
GERD impounded through two, three, six years respectively
at the normal flow from the Blue Nile. At a minimum flow
from the Blue Nile, the decrease of the active storage could
be 55.138, 54.415, 44.398 BCM/year.
Zhang et al. [6] studied various filling policies of GERD. They
found that impounding 10% (25%) of monthly streamflow
behind the GERD produces a 6% (14%) averagereduction in
streamflow entering Lake Nasser. Twenty one different
scenarios investigatedtheimpactonHighAswanDam(HAD)
inflow by [7], where she found a reduction on hydropower
production in Egypt. Ahmed, T. A. and Elsanabary [8]
investigated the possibility of the GERD damage using HEC-
RAC model, where they concluded that the best accepted
scenario for constructing the dam is charging a reservoir
with 10 BCM/year or less.
Mulat and Moges [1] modelled the Eastern Nile river basin
using Mike Basin model that showed; 1- decreasing in HAD
water level to 147m (the dead storage level), and 2-
decreasing in the average annual inflow to HAD by 2%.
Thereafter, Wheeler et al. [9] compared the findings of 224
potential and practical filling strategies, using a river basin
planning model (RiverWare) with a wide range of historical
hydrological conditions (1900-2002). Wheeler found that
the risks to Egyptian users and energy generation can be
minimized through a basin-widecooperativeagreement that
guarantee specific elevation for Lake Nasser.
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 219
Mobasher and Elabd [10] tested four differentfillingperiods
of (4, 5, 6, or 7) years, where they found that the smallest
period the annual percentage of the inflow deduction could
be 68.8% and could be reduce to 41.20% if the filling period
increase to 7 years and theannual maximumviolationwould
decrease from 40.07 BCM to 33.67 BCM in case of increasing
the GERD filling period from 4 to 7 years.
This paper aims to study the impact of the GERDoninflow to
HAD during the GERD filling and operation stages. The
RiverWare software included the updated schematic of the
Eastern Nile Model [11] was used. The influences on the
operation of HAD from the GERD fillingandoperationwill be
analyzed and discussed to find out the minimum impacted
scenario on the HAD inflow.
2. Study Region and Data Sets
2.1. The Eastern Nile Basin
The study area is the Eastern Nile basin showed in Figure
1. The Eastern Nile basin is located in the middle-east of the
Nile Basin. It is geographically shared between Egypt, Sudan,
South Sudan, and Ethiopia. The basin covers an area around
1,738,000 km2 [12]. The Eastern Nile area starts from the
Ethiopian plateau. The main sub-basins in the Eastern Nile
Basin (ENB) are; the Blue Nile, Sobat River, and Atbara River
(Figure 1). Thesethreemainsub-basinscontributewithmore
than 85% to the total annual flow of the Nile.
In the Ethiopianhighlands,thestudyareahassteepslopes
that receives heavy rainfall. In Sudanese part, the study area
has mild slopes that receives less rainfall. Thus, the high
portion of the flow in the Eastern Nile basin is coming from
the Ethiopian highlands [13].
Figure 1: The Eastern Nile sub-basins within the Nile River basin in the topographic map [14]
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 220
2.2. The Data Sets
Many efforts were done to have the latest data about the
GERD reservoir. Some of these data are old and not updated
and there are many changes in the reservoir characteristics
from year to year. It was decided to use the data from the
Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) for the
physical characteristics of the GERD reservoir.Then,thedata
wasupdatedthroughcommunicationswithNileWaterSector
(NWS). For theGERDreservoircharacteristics,Table1shows
the physical characteristics of GERD reservoirs. Figure 2
shows the Volume and Area – Stage Curve for the GERD
reservoir.
Table 1: The Reservoir Characteristics, source: ENTRO
Reservoir Profile Spreadsheet
Reservoir Characteristics GERD
Dam Crest Level (masl) 645
Full Supply Level (masl) 640
Min. Operating Level (masl) 590
Storage @ FSL (BCM) 79
Active Storage (BCM) 59.22
Surface Area at FSL (km2) 1561
Power Capacity (MW) 6000
Figure 2: Volume and Area-stage curve for the GERD
reservoir
3. Methodological Approach
The updated ENM [11] was used to assess the impacts from
the GERD implementation on Egypt. Three scenarios were
simulated by changing the HAD initial water level. The
analysis were carried out by comparing the simulation
outputs for the three scenarios. Examination of the GERD
impacts on HAD was achieved through the analysis for the
two stages (filling and operation) of the GERD reservoir.
The ENM was simulated in multiple run tool that is included
in the RiverWare, where each scenario was executed using
the 115 time series ensamples of hydrologic flow data as an
input for expected flows from 2017 to 2060. This simulation
is repeated for the three scenarios (initial HAD level 165,
170, 175 m). The outputs were analyzed and discussed in
details.
3.1. Model Inputs and Assumptions
The Eastern Nile Model (ENM) was developed using
RiverWare software [9,15]. Recently, Kamel et al. [11]
updated the ENM for Reservoir Management. Their study
concluded that the ENM is ready to evaluate the benefits and
the impacts of any future development in the Nile basin.
In this paper, the ENM simulation was accomplished to
study the effect from the GERD in the filling and operation
phases. The simulated period starts from 2017 to 2060. The
starting timeofthesimulationwascontrolledbytheavailable
input data, such as the initial water level for existing
reservoirs. However, the filling of the GERD starts in July
2019.
The initial water level for all reservoirs exists in the
system are shown in Table 2. The Sudanese dams' strategy
was assumed to be ruled with its maximum capacity, where
the Sudanese dams will receive more regulated flow due to
the GERD implementation.
Table 2: The upstream initial water level for the existing
reservoirs
Reservoir Roseires Sennar
Jebel
Aluia
Khashm
El Girba
Merowe
Upper
Atbara
and Setit
GERD
Water
Level (m)
490.00 421.70 377.40 474.00 300.00 521.00 500
For the GERD reservoir, the start time of filling was
assumed to be in July 2019. The initial water level for GERD
was set to be 500 m. The GERD filling period was assumed to
be finished in six years with three phases.Thefirstphasewas
assumed in one-year with targets level 565 m, and
corresponding storage 4.5 BCM. The second phase was
assumed in one-year with targets level 595 m, and
corresponding storage 18.0 BCM.Finally,thethirdphasewas
assumed to be fill in four years with targets level 640 m,
where the filling volume during the third phase was
distributed over the four years with the percentage 40%,
30%, 20% and 10% forthe first,second,thirdandfourthyear
respectively. Table 3 indicatedthetargetlevelandstoragefor
each year in the filling period. In the GERD operation period,
the GERD operation was set to target only the hydropower
production.
Table 3: The target water level and storage volume for
GERD reservoir
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Targetelevation(m) 565 595 618 630 637 640
Target storage
(BCM)
4.5 18.0 40.4 57.2 68.4 74.0
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 221
For the HAD reservoir,theinitialwaterlevelwasassumed
to be 165 m, 170 m, and 175 m, which developing 3 different
scenarios.
A series of 115 years of historical flow data (1900-2014)
was used to develop stochastic hydrologic conditions by
applying the index-sequential method [16]. This method
applies the sequence of the historical hydrologic flows to
produce series of future flow data with the similar sequence
for the modelled period (2017–2060).
4. Results and Discussion
The analysis was carried out by comparing the simulation
outputs for the three scenarios considering the two stages of
filling and operation of GERD. Examination of the GERD
impact on HAD was achievedthrough four main criteria. The
first criteria was the probability of HAD water level less than
159 m and 147 m. The second criteria was the probability of
the inflow entering HAD not exceeding 55.5 BCM. The third
criteria was the 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of
exceedance forHADpoolelevation.Finally,thefourthcriteria
was the probability of shortagepercentagefortheshortterm.
These criteria were described below.
Figure 3 shows the average of the 115 ensemblesforthepool
elevation (the level of the month start day) for the GERD and
HAD reservoirs during the simulation period (2017 to 2060)
for the three scenarios. It appears from Figure 3 that HAD
pool elevation drops to very low levels in the filling period of
the GERD in all scenarios. The difference between the initial
and the minimum value is around 7 m, 11 m, 15.5 m in the
first, second, and third scenario respectively. After thefilling,
the HAD pool elevation rises and reach equilibrium between
168 to 171 m amsl.
(a)
(b)
(c)
Figure 3: The average of 115 ensembles for the monthly
simulated pool elevation for GERD and HAD reservoirs: (a)
HAD initial level = 165 m, (b) HAD initial level = 170 m, (c)
HAD initial level = 175 m
The maximum probability of HAD water level less than or
equal 159 m and 147 m was analyzed, where level 159 m is
the minimum elevation for power generation from the HAD,
and level 147 m is HAD dead storage level. The probability of
HAD water level less than or equal 159 m equals to the
probability of shutting down the HAD turbines, where the
probability of HAD water level less than or equal 147 m
equals to the probability of having zero outflow from HAD
that causes catastrophically drought in Egypt.
The maximum probabilities of HAD water level less than or
equal 159 m and 147 m were computed for the short term
(2019-2024) and the long term (2025-2060) representing
the filling and operation phases of GERD reservoir. The
probability of HAD water level was expressed as:
P(L 159) = n(L 159) / n(L)
Where P(L 159) is the probability of HAD water level
occurrence less than or equal 159 m in each time step
(monthly) for all hydrological ensembles (115), n(L 159) is
the number of occurrence less than or equal 159 m, and n(L)
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 222
is the total number of all possible HAD water level outcomes
(115).
The maximum probability wascalculatedfromthemaximum
of all probabilities for all time steps, this process was
repeated for all scenarios and for HAD water level less than
159 m and 147 m in short and long terms, Figure 4 and
Figure 5. The two figures confirmed that the max probability
of HAD level less than or equal 159 m is higher than the max
probability of HAD level less than or equal 147 m in all
conditions. It was clear that the maximumprobabilityofHAD
level less than or equal 159 m and 147 m was decreasing by
increasing the HAD initial water level in both short and long
terms. The values of the maximum probability of HAD level
less than or equal 159 m and 147 m are higher in the short
term than in long terms. This was due to the effect of the
GERD reservoir filling. Figure 4 indicates the Egypt harms
from GERD filling, which was represented in the high
probabilities of lowering HAD level, especially if HAD initial
water level was low when the GERD filling starts.
Additionally, this harm was decreasing in long term;
however, the probability of HAD level to be less than 159 m
and 147 m still exists in the operational phase of GERD
(Figure 5).
Figure 4: Maximum Probability of HAD level ≤ 159 m,
≤147 m in short term (2019-2024) for the three scenarios
Figure 5: Maximum Probability of HAD level ≤ 159 m,
≤147 m in long term (2025-2060) for the three scenarios
The second criteria was check the probability of the HAD
inflow to not cover the Egypt share 55.5 BCM. These
probabilities were computed for the three scenarios. The
probability of HAD inflow was expressed as:
P(I<55.5) = n(I<55.5) / n(I)
where P(I<55.5) is the inflow entering HAD not exceeding
55.5 BCM in each year for all hydrological ensembles (115),
n(I<55.5) is the number of occurrence less than 55.5 BCM,
and n(I) is the total number of all possible HAD water level
outcomes (115). This process was repeated for all scenarios
with different HAD initial water level. Finally, these
probabilities were plotted in Figure 6 that shows the
probability of the inflow entering HAD not exceeding 55.5
BCM forthe three scenarios. It is obvious that the probability
of the HAD inflow to be less than 55.5 BCM dramatically
increases in the first six or seven years. In the other side,
these probabilities were slightlyincreasedinlongtermforall
scenarios.
For the three scenarios, the probabilityoftheHADinflowless
than 55.5 BCM reaches 70% during the GERD filling period.
However, it decreases to 13% in the GERD operation period,
(Figure 6). The probabilitiesinthethreescenariosaresimilar
all the time. This means that whatever the initial HAD level,
Egypt won't receive its share (55.5 BCM) with 70%
probability in the GERD filling period. Figure 6 exhibits that
Egypt could suffer from drought when the GERD filling with
high probabilities.
Figure 6: Probability of HAD Inflow < 55.5 BCM
The 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of exceedance for HAD
pool elevation was analyzed to observe the changes in HAD
water levels for all climatological ensamples. These
probabilities were calculated from the HAD pool elevation at
first of August for the three different scenarios. The 10%,
50%, and 90% probability of exceedance for HAD pool
elevation were expressed from the 90th, 50th, and 10th
percentile respectively, Figure 7.
Figure 7 (a, b, and c) shows the 10%, 50%, and 90%
probability of exceedance for HAD pool elevation (at 1st of
August) during the simulation period fortheinitialHADlevel
165 m, 170 m, and 175 m respectively. The figure manifests
the effect of GERD filling on HAD pool elevations in all
scenarios. For instance, the 90% probability of exceedance
for HAD pool elevation in the three scenarios looks similar.
However, in the first scenario, the HAD level drop to its
minimum elevation 147 m for two years during the GERD
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 223
filling instead of droppingtoitsminimumelevation147mfor
one year only in the second and thirdscenarios.DuringGERD
operation, the HAD pool elevation rises and reach
equilibrium between 159.67, 170.69, and 174.63 m amsl for
the 90%, 50%, and 10% probability of exceedance for all
scenarios.
(a)
(b)
(c)
Figure 7: 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of exceedance
for HAD pool elevation: (a) initial HAD level = 165 m, (b)
initial HAD level = 170 m, (c) initial HAD level = 175 m
The probabilities of the depletion shortage percentages
regarding the Egyptian demands were computed for each
year in the short term (2019-2027) representing the filling
phase of the GERD reservoir. The probabilities of shortage
percentages were calculated according to seven specified
intervals(0-5),(5-10),(10-15),(15-20),(20-25),(25-30),and
(>30) BCM. This is to recognize the shortage problem ineach
year with the shortage value and its probabilities. These
probabilities were computed for the three scenarios. The
probability ofshortagepercentagesforthespecifiedintervals
(0-5) was expressed as:
P(0<sh<5)= n(0<sh<5) / n(I)
where P(0<sh<5) is the probability of shortage in each year
in the short term (2019-2027), n(0<sh<5) is the number of
occurrence bigger than 0 BCM and less than 5 BCM, and n(I)
is the total number of all possible shortage outcomes (115).
This process was repeated for the seven specified intervals
(0-5), (5-10), (10-15), (15-20), (20-25), (25-30), and (>30).
This process was repeated for all scenarios with different
HAD initial water level.
Figure 8 (a, b, and c) shows the probability of shortage
percentage in short term (2019-2027) for the initial HAD
level 165 m, 170 m, and 175 m respectively. The figure
confirms the negative consequence from the GERD filling on
Egypt. For example, in 2023, the probability of shortage
bigger than 30 BCM reaches 8.7%, 7%, 5.2% for the initial
HAD level 165 m, 170 m, and 175 m respectively. In other
words, Egypt will suffer from severe drought in 2023 even
with small probabilitiesduetotheGERDfillingregardlessthe
initial HAD level. This could have serious consequences such
as increasing pollution of surface water, dryness of
agriculture lands, economic crisis, higher food production
costs, lower energy production from hydro plants, depletion
of water tourism and transport revenue, and problems with
water supply for the energy sector and for technological
processes in metallurgy, mining, the chemical, paper, wood,
foodstuff industries etc.
(a)
(b)
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 224
(c)
Figure 8: Probability of shortage percentage in short term
(2017-2027): (a) initial HAD level = 165 m, (b) initial HAD
level = 170 m, (c) initial HAD level = 175 m
5. Conclusions
The updated ENM was used to simulate the filling and
operationofGERDreservoirinRiverWaresoftware.TheENM
simulation was accomplished forthreescenarios(initialHAD
level 165, 170, 175 m). The number of the hydrological flow
ensembles for each scenario was 115; the length of the
ensemble was for the period (2017-2060).
The analysis was carried out through four main criteria (the
probability of HAD water level occurrence less than 159 m
and 147 m, the probability of the inflow entering HAD not
exceeding 55.5 BCM, the third criteria is the 10%, 50%, and
90% probability of exceedance for HAD pool elevation, and
the fourth criteria is the probability of shortage percentage).
From the results, the GERD may have very highimpactonthe
water inflow to Egypt. The firstharmindicatorisrepresented
in high probabilities (34% - 64%) of decreasing HAD level to
less than 159m. This means high probabilities of shutting
down the turbines and no hydropower generated from HAD.
In addition, the probabilities (5% - 23%) of decreasing HAD
level to less than 147 m, which means high probabilities of
emptying the reservoir, this means that HAD will not be able
to release water downstream HAD, which causes
catastrophically drought inEgypt.Thesecondharmindicator
is represented in the probability of the HAD inflow less than
55.5 BCM, which reaches 70%, this means that the inflow to
Egypt may be decrease to less than 25% of the mean annual
inflow. The third harm indicator is represented by the 90%
probability of exceedance that showed the HAD pool
elevation drops to its minimum elevation 147 m. The fourth
harm indicator is represented by the probability of shortage
bigger than 30 BCM reaches 8.7% in 2023. Consequently,the
harm from GERD reservoir especially in the filling phase is
enormous that could cause drought in Egypt with high
probabilities.
This article gives a qualitative analysis of the impact on the
HAD reservoirfromtheGERDfillingandoperation.Egyptwill
suffer more from the construction of GERD especially in the
filling period, where all sectors depend on water will be
under risk during the filling period. Finally, the basin
managements and cooperation between the Eastern Nile
countries are essential and needed to avoid or reduce the
harm from GERD on water inflow to Egypt. It is
recommended to test other scenarios forchanging the GERD
filling policies to avoid or reduce the harm from the GERD
implementation on Egypt.
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[3] Alrajoula MT, Zayed IS Al, Elagib NA, Hamdi MR.
Hydrological, socio-economic and reservoir
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Environ 2016;566–567:938–48.
[4] Oliveira R, Loucks DP. Operating rules for
multireservoir systems. Water Resour Res
1997;33:839–52. doi:10.1029/96WR03745.
[5] Ramadan sayed M, Negm AM, Smanny M, Helmy A.
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Renaissance Dam On The Egyptian Water Resources
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© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 225
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IRJET- Assessment the Harm from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Water Inflow to Egypt

  • 1. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 218 Assessment the Harm from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Water Inflow to Egypt Asmaa M. Kamel1, Doaa M. Amin2, Mohamed M. Nour Eldin3 1PhD Student, Assistant Researcher, Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI), National Water Research Center (NWRC), Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), Egypt 2Researcher, Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI), National Water Research Center (NWRC), Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), Egypt 3Professor, Irrigation and Hydraulic Department, Faculty of Engineering Ain Shams University, Egypt ----------------------------------------------------------------------***--------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract - The Nile River is the lifeline for Egypt as it covers about 95% of its demand. The natural flow at Aswan in Egypt is very sensitive to any change in the Blue Nile basin; this means that any upstream development in the Blue Nile Basin countries affects the inflow to Egypt. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the most disputes between Ethiopia and downstream countries because of its unknown consequences. In this paper, the Eastern Nile Model (ENM) in RiverWare software was used to simulate the filling and operation of GERD reservoir during the period (2017-2060) for three scenarios and 115 ensembles of hydrological flow data with six years filling period. The results declares that the harm from GERD reservoir especially in the filling phase is catastrophic that could cause drought in Egypt. For instance, the probability of the High Aswan Dam (HAD) inflow less than 55.5 BCM would reach 70% and the probability of the shortage during the filling period bigger than 30 BCMreaches 8.7%. Finally, this article gives a qualitative analysis of the impact on the HAD reservoir from the GERD filling and operation. Key Words: River system modelling; Reservoir simulation; Transboundary Rivers; Eastern Nile; Riverware 1. INTRODUCTION The Nile River is the lifeline for Egypt as it covers about95% of its demand. The Blue Nile contributes by about60%ofthe inflow to Lake Nasser [1]; this means that any change in the hydrology of the Blue Nile affects the inflow to Egypt. In addition, the upstream developments in the Blue Nile Basin countries affect the water share of Egypt. In few years ago, the government of Ethiopia is persisting their development plans by generating hydropower with a sequence of proposed dams. One of these dams is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)withfull storageover74 BCM and installed hydropower capacity of 6000 MW. The GERD is in its last stage of construction and its filling is approaching. However, regional disputesarecontinuingdue to its unforeseen impacts on downstream countries. Building dams is a major hydraulic development that brings about many environmental, economic and social benefits to satisfy human needs, such as controlling floods, retaining sediments [2], providing water for irrigation, adjusting surface water quantity and quality, and generating hydropower. On the other hand, dams have several negative ecological impacts, including clearing/flooding large areas, increasing humidity of the nearby areas, provision of ideal habitat that leads to transmission [3]. In addition, the reservoir operation isa complexproblemthatinvolvesmany decision variables, multiple objectives as well as considerable risk and uncertainty [4]. Many efforts were done by many researchers to study the impact of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) construction on the inflowto LakeNasser.Theconsequences of this dam could be catastrophic for Egypt. Ramadan et al. [5] studied the environmental impacts of GERD on the Egyptian water resources using MODSIM hydrological model. The study concluded decreasing in the Lake Nasser active storage by 37.263,25.413,13.287BCM/year when the GERD impounded through two, three, six years respectively at the normal flow from the Blue Nile. At a minimum flow from the Blue Nile, the decrease of the active storage could be 55.138, 54.415, 44.398 BCM/year. Zhang et al. [6] studied various filling policies of GERD. They found that impounding 10% (25%) of monthly streamflow behind the GERD produces a 6% (14%) averagereduction in streamflow entering Lake Nasser. Twenty one different scenarios investigatedtheimpactonHighAswanDam(HAD) inflow by [7], where she found a reduction on hydropower production in Egypt. Ahmed, T. A. and Elsanabary [8] investigated the possibility of the GERD damage using HEC- RAC model, where they concluded that the best accepted scenario for constructing the dam is charging a reservoir with 10 BCM/year or less. Mulat and Moges [1] modelled the Eastern Nile river basin using Mike Basin model that showed; 1- decreasing in HAD water level to 147m (the dead storage level), and 2- decreasing in the average annual inflow to HAD by 2%. Thereafter, Wheeler et al. [9] compared the findings of 224 potential and practical filling strategies, using a river basin planning model (RiverWare) with a wide range of historical hydrological conditions (1900-2002). Wheeler found that the risks to Egyptian users and energy generation can be minimized through a basin-widecooperativeagreement that guarantee specific elevation for Lake Nasser.
  • 2. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 219 Mobasher and Elabd [10] tested four differentfillingperiods of (4, 5, 6, or 7) years, where they found that the smallest period the annual percentage of the inflow deduction could be 68.8% and could be reduce to 41.20% if the filling period increase to 7 years and theannual maximumviolationwould decrease from 40.07 BCM to 33.67 BCM in case of increasing the GERD filling period from 4 to 7 years. This paper aims to study the impact of the GERDoninflow to HAD during the GERD filling and operation stages. The RiverWare software included the updated schematic of the Eastern Nile Model [11] was used. The influences on the operation of HAD from the GERD fillingandoperationwill be analyzed and discussed to find out the minimum impacted scenario on the HAD inflow. 2. Study Region and Data Sets 2.1. The Eastern Nile Basin The study area is the Eastern Nile basin showed in Figure 1. The Eastern Nile basin is located in the middle-east of the Nile Basin. It is geographically shared between Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. The basin covers an area around 1,738,000 km2 [12]. The Eastern Nile area starts from the Ethiopian plateau. The main sub-basins in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) are; the Blue Nile, Sobat River, and Atbara River (Figure 1). Thesethreemainsub-basinscontributewithmore than 85% to the total annual flow of the Nile. In the Ethiopianhighlands,thestudyareahassteepslopes that receives heavy rainfall. In Sudanese part, the study area has mild slopes that receives less rainfall. Thus, the high portion of the flow in the Eastern Nile basin is coming from the Ethiopian highlands [13]. Figure 1: The Eastern Nile sub-basins within the Nile River basin in the topographic map [14]
  • 3. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 220 2.2. The Data Sets Many efforts were done to have the latest data about the GERD reservoir. Some of these data are old and not updated and there are many changes in the reservoir characteristics from year to year. It was decided to use the data from the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) for the physical characteristics of the GERD reservoir.Then,thedata wasupdatedthroughcommunicationswithNileWaterSector (NWS). For theGERDreservoircharacteristics,Table1shows the physical characteristics of GERD reservoirs. Figure 2 shows the Volume and Area – Stage Curve for the GERD reservoir. Table 1: The Reservoir Characteristics, source: ENTRO Reservoir Profile Spreadsheet Reservoir Characteristics GERD Dam Crest Level (masl) 645 Full Supply Level (masl) 640 Min. Operating Level (masl) 590 Storage @ FSL (BCM) 79 Active Storage (BCM) 59.22 Surface Area at FSL (km2) 1561 Power Capacity (MW) 6000 Figure 2: Volume and Area-stage curve for the GERD reservoir 3. Methodological Approach The updated ENM [11] was used to assess the impacts from the GERD implementation on Egypt. Three scenarios were simulated by changing the HAD initial water level. The analysis were carried out by comparing the simulation outputs for the three scenarios. Examination of the GERD impacts on HAD was achieved through the analysis for the two stages (filling and operation) of the GERD reservoir. The ENM was simulated in multiple run tool that is included in the RiverWare, where each scenario was executed using the 115 time series ensamples of hydrologic flow data as an input for expected flows from 2017 to 2060. This simulation is repeated for the three scenarios (initial HAD level 165, 170, 175 m). The outputs were analyzed and discussed in details. 3.1. Model Inputs and Assumptions The Eastern Nile Model (ENM) was developed using RiverWare software [9,15]. Recently, Kamel et al. [11] updated the ENM for Reservoir Management. Their study concluded that the ENM is ready to evaluate the benefits and the impacts of any future development in the Nile basin. In this paper, the ENM simulation was accomplished to study the effect from the GERD in the filling and operation phases. The simulated period starts from 2017 to 2060. The starting timeofthesimulationwascontrolledbytheavailable input data, such as the initial water level for existing reservoirs. However, the filling of the GERD starts in July 2019. The initial water level for all reservoirs exists in the system are shown in Table 2. The Sudanese dams' strategy was assumed to be ruled with its maximum capacity, where the Sudanese dams will receive more regulated flow due to the GERD implementation. Table 2: The upstream initial water level for the existing reservoirs Reservoir Roseires Sennar Jebel Aluia Khashm El Girba Merowe Upper Atbara and Setit GERD Water Level (m) 490.00 421.70 377.40 474.00 300.00 521.00 500 For the GERD reservoir, the start time of filling was assumed to be in July 2019. The initial water level for GERD was set to be 500 m. The GERD filling period was assumed to be finished in six years with three phases.Thefirstphasewas assumed in one-year with targets level 565 m, and corresponding storage 4.5 BCM. The second phase was assumed in one-year with targets level 595 m, and corresponding storage 18.0 BCM.Finally,thethirdphasewas assumed to be fill in four years with targets level 640 m, where the filling volume during the third phase was distributed over the four years with the percentage 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% forthe first,second,thirdandfourthyear respectively. Table 3 indicatedthetargetlevelandstoragefor each year in the filling period. In the GERD operation period, the GERD operation was set to target only the hydropower production. Table 3: The target water level and storage volume for GERD reservoir Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 Targetelevation(m) 565 595 618 630 637 640 Target storage (BCM) 4.5 18.0 40.4 57.2 68.4 74.0
  • 4. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 221 For the HAD reservoir,theinitialwaterlevelwasassumed to be 165 m, 170 m, and 175 m, which developing 3 different scenarios. A series of 115 years of historical flow data (1900-2014) was used to develop stochastic hydrologic conditions by applying the index-sequential method [16]. This method applies the sequence of the historical hydrologic flows to produce series of future flow data with the similar sequence for the modelled period (2017–2060). 4. Results and Discussion The analysis was carried out by comparing the simulation outputs for the three scenarios considering the two stages of filling and operation of GERD. Examination of the GERD impact on HAD was achievedthrough four main criteria. The first criteria was the probability of HAD water level less than 159 m and 147 m. The second criteria was the probability of the inflow entering HAD not exceeding 55.5 BCM. The third criteria was the 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of exceedance forHADpoolelevation.Finally,thefourthcriteria was the probability of shortagepercentagefortheshortterm. These criteria were described below. Figure 3 shows the average of the 115 ensemblesforthepool elevation (the level of the month start day) for the GERD and HAD reservoirs during the simulation period (2017 to 2060) for the three scenarios. It appears from Figure 3 that HAD pool elevation drops to very low levels in the filling period of the GERD in all scenarios. The difference between the initial and the minimum value is around 7 m, 11 m, 15.5 m in the first, second, and third scenario respectively. After thefilling, the HAD pool elevation rises and reach equilibrium between 168 to 171 m amsl. (a) (b) (c) Figure 3: The average of 115 ensembles for the monthly simulated pool elevation for GERD and HAD reservoirs: (a) HAD initial level = 165 m, (b) HAD initial level = 170 m, (c) HAD initial level = 175 m The maximum probability of HAD water level less than or equal 159 m and 147 m was analyzed, where level 159 m is the minimum elevation for power generation from the HAD, and level 147 m is HAD dead storage level. The probability of HAD water level less than or equal 159 m equals to the probability of shutting down the HAD turbines, where the probability of HAD water level less than or equal 147 m equals to the probability of having zero outflow from HAD that causes catastrophically drought in Egypt. The maximum probabilities of HAD water level less than or equal 159 m and 147 m were computed for the short term (2019-2024) and the long term (2025-2060) representing the filling and operation phases of GERD reservoir. The probability of HAD water level was expressed as: P(L 159) = n(L 159) / n(L) Where P(L 159) is the probability of HAD water level occurrence less than or equal 159 m in each time step (monthly) for all hydrological ensembles (115), n(L 159) is the number of occurrence less than or equal 159 m, and n(L)
  • 5. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 222 is the total number of all possible HAD water level outcomes (115). The maximum probability wascalculatedfromthemaximum of all probabilities for all time steps, this process was repeated for all scenarios and for HAD water level less than 159 m and 147 m in short and long terms, Figure 4 and Figure 5. The two figures confirmed that the max probability of HAD level less than or equal 159 m is higher than the max probability of HAD level less than or equal 147 m in all conditions. It was clear that the maximumprobabilityofHAD level less than or equal 159 m and 147 m was decreasing by increasing the HAD initial water level in both short and long terms. The values of the maximum probability of HAD level less than or equal 159 m and 147 m are higher in the short term than in long terms. This was due to the effect of the GERD reservoir filling. Figure 4 indicates the Egypt harms from GERD filling, which was represented in the high probabilities of lowering HAD level, especially if HAD initial water level was low when the GERD filling starts. Additionally, this harm was decreasing in long term; however, the probability of HAD level to be less than 159 m and 147 m still exists in the operational phase of GERD (Figure 5). Figure 4: Maximum Probability of HAD level ≤ 159 m, ≤147 m in short term (2019-2024) for the three scenarios Figure 5: Maximum Probability of HAD level ≤ 159 m, ≤147 m in long term (2025-2060) for the three scenarios The second criteria was check the probability of the HAD inflow to not cover the Egypt share 55.5 BCM. These probabilities were computed for the three scenarios. The probability of HAD inflow was expressed as: P(I<55.5) = n(I<55.5) / n(I) where P(I<55.5) is the inflow entering HAD not exceeding 55.5 BCM in each year for all hydrological ensembles (115), n(I<55.5) is the number of occurrence less than 55.5 BCM, and n(I) is the total number of all possible HAD water level outcomes (115). This process was repeated for all scenarios with different HAD initial water level. Finally, these probabilities were plotted in Figure 6 that shows the probability of the inflow entering HAD not exceeding 55.5 BCM forthe three scenarios. It is obvious that the probability of the HAD inflow to be less than 55.5 BCM dramatically increases in the first six or seven years. In the other side, these probabilities were slightlyincreasedinlongtermforall scenarios. For the three scenarios, the probabilityoftheHADinflowless than 55.5 BCM reaches 70% during the GERD filling period. However, it decreases to 13% in the GERD operation period, (Figure 6). The probabilitiesinthethreescenariosaresimilar all the time. This means that whatever the initial HAD level, Egypt won't receive its share (55.5 BCM) with 70% probability in the GERD filling period. Figure 6 exhibits that Egypt could suffer from drought when the GERD filling with high probabilities. Figure 6: Probability of HAD Inflow < 55.5 BCM The 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of exceedance for HAD pool elevation was analyzed to observe the changes in HAD water levels for all climatological ensamples. These probabilities were calculated from the HAD pool elevation at first of August for the three different scenarios. The 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of exceedance for HAD pool elevation were expressed from the 90th, 50th, and 10th percentile respectively, Figure 7. Figure 7 (a, b, and c) shows the 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of exceedance for HAD pool elevation (at 1st of August) during the simulation period fortheinitialHADlevel 165 m, 170 m, and 175 m respectively. The figure manifests the effect of GERD filling on HAD pool elevations in all scenarios. For instance, the 90% probability of exceedance for HAD pool elevation in the three scenarios looks similar. However, in the first scenario, the HAD level drop to its minimum elevation 147 m for two years during the GERD
  • 6. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 223 filling instead of droppingtoitsminimumelevation147mfor one year only in the second and thirdscenarios.DuringGERD operation, the HAD pool elevation rises and reach equilibrium between 159.67, 170.69, and 174.63 m amsl for the 90%, 50%, and 10% probability of exceedance for all scenarios. (a) (b) (c) Figure 7: 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of exceedance for HAD pool elevation: (a) initial HAD level = 165 m, (b) initial HAD level = 170 m, (c) initial HAD level = 175 m The probabilities of the depletion shortage percentages regarding the Egyptian demands were computed for each year in the short term (2019-2027) representing the filling phase of the GERD reservoir. The probabilities of shortage percentages were calculated according to seven specified intervals(0-5),(5-10),(10-15),(15-20),(20-25),(25-30),and (>30) BCM. This is to recognize the shortage problem ineach year with the shortage value and its probabilities. These probabilities were computed for the three scenarios. The probability ofshortagepercentagesforthespecifiedintervals (0-5) was expressed as: P(0<sh<5)= n(0<sh<5) / n(I) where P(0<sh<5) is the probability of shortage in each year in the short term (2019-2027), n(0<sh<5) is the number of occurrence bigger than 0 BCM and less than 5 BCM, and n(I) is the total number of all possible shortage outcomes (115). This process was repeated for the seven specified intervals (0-5), (5-10), (10-15), (15-20), (20-25), (25-30), and (>30). This process was repeated for all scenarios with different HAD initial water level. Figure 8 (a, b, and c) shows the probability of shortage percentage in short term (2019-2027) for the initial HAD level 165 m, 170 m, and 175 m respectively. The figure confirms the negative consequence from the GERD filling on Egypt. For example, in 2023, the probability of shortage bigger than 30 BCM reaches 8.7%, 7%, 5.2% for the initial HAD level 165 m, 170 m, and 175 m respectively. In other words, Egypt will suffer from severe drought in 2023 even with small probabilitiesduetotheGERDfillingregardlessthe initial HAD level. This could have serious consequences such as increasing pollution of surface water, dryness of agriculture lands, economic crisis, higher food production costs, lower energy production from hydro plants, depletion of water tourism and transport revenue, and problems with water supply for the energy sector and for technological processes in metallurgy, mining, the chemical, paper, wood, foodstuff industries etc. (a) (b)
  • 7. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 224 (c) Figure 8: Probability of shortage percentage in short term (2017-2027): (a) initial HAD level = 165 m, (b) initial HAD level = 170 m, (c) initial HAD level = 175 m 5. Conclusions The updated ENM was used to simulate the filling and operationofGERDreservoirinRiverWaresoftware.TheENM simulation was accomplished forthreescenarios(initialHAD level 165, 170, 175 m). The number of the hydrological flow ensembles for each scenario was 115; the length of the ensemble was for the period (2017-2060). The analysis was carried out through four main criteria (the probability of HAD water level occurrence less than 159 m and 147 m, the probability of the inflow entering HAD not exceeding 55.5 BCM, the third criteria is the 10%, 50%, and 90% probability of exceedance for HAD pool elevation, and the fourth criteria is the probability of shortage percentage). From the results, the GERD may have very highimpactonthe water inflow to Egypt. The firstharmindicatorisrepresented in high probabilities (34% - 64%) of decreasing HAD level to less than 159m. This means high probabilities of shutting down the turbines and no hydropower generated from HAD. In addition, the probabilities (5% - 23%) of decreasing HAD level to less than 147 m, which means high probabilities of emptying the reservoir, this means that HAD will not be able to release water downstream HAD, which causes catastrophically drought inEgypt.Thesecondharmindicator is represented in the probability of the HAD inflow less than 55.5 BCM, which reaches 70%, this means that the inflow to Egypt may be decrease to less than 25% of the mean annual inflow. The third harm indicator is represented by the 90% probability of exceedance that showed the HAD pool elevation drops to its minimum elevation 147 m. The fourth harm indicator is represented by the probability of shortage bigger than 30 BCM reaches 8.7% in 2023. Consequently,the harm from GERD reservoir especially in the filling phase is enormous that could cause drought in Egypt with high probabilities. This article gives a qualitative analysis of the impact on the HAD reservoirfromtheGERDfillingandoperation.Egyptwill suffer more from the construction of GERD especially in the filling period, where all sectors depend on water will be under risk during the filling period. Finally, the basin managements and cooperation between the Eastern Nile countries are essential and needed to avoid or reduce the harm from GERD on water inflow to Egypt. It is recommended to test other scenarios forchanging the GERD filling policies to avoid or reduce the harm from the GERD implementation on Egypt. REFERENCES [1] Mulat AG, Moges SA. Assessment of the impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the performance of the high Aswan Dam. Water Resour Prot 2014;6:583–98. doi:10.1080/14703291003718950. [2] Zhang W, Mu S, Zhang Y, Chen K. Temporal variation of suspended sediment load in the Pearl River due to human activities. Int J Sediment Res2011;26:487–97. doi:10.1016/S1001-6279(12)60007-9. [3] Alrajoula MT, Zayed IS Al, Elagib NA, Hamdi MR. Hydrological, socio-economic and reservoir alterations of Er Roseires Dam in Sudan. Sci Total Environ 2016;566–567:938–48. [4] Oliveira R, Loucks DP. Operating rules for multireservoir systems. Water Resour Res 1997;33:839–52. doi:10.1029/96WR03745. [5] Ramadan sayed M, Negm AM, Smanny M, Helmy A. Environmental Impacts Of Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam On The Egyptian Water Resources Management And Security. Conf Pap 2013;55:1–14. doi:10.13140/2.1.2233.2483. [6] Zhang Y, Block P, Hammond M, King A. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: Implications for Downstream Riparian Countries. J WaterResourPlan Manag 2015;141:05015002. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000520. [7] Ismail SS. Flow Reduction Impacts along River Nile in Egypt. Seventeenth Int Water Technol Conf2013:5–7. [8] Ahmed, T. A. and Elsanabary MH. Hydrological and Environmental Impacts of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on The Nile River. Eighteenth Int. Water Technol. Conf. IWTC18, 2015, p. 336–347. [9] Wheeler KG, Basheer M, Mekonnen ZT, Sami O, Mersha A, Abdo GM, et al. Cooperative filling approaches for the GrandEthiopianRenaissanceDam 2016;8060:0–24. doi:10.1080/02508060.2016.1177698. [10] Mobasher AM, Elabd SM. Impact Assessment of the Filling Period of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir on the Nile Flow. Int J Water Resour Environ Manag 2016;7:1–14. [11] Kamel AM, Amin D, Eldin MMN. Updating and assessment of the eastern nile model in riverware for reservoir management. Int J Appl Eng Res 2019;14:1772–81. [12] Digna RF, Castro-Gama ME, van der Zaag P, Mohamed
  • 8. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 10 | Oct 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.34 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 225 YA, Corzo G, Uhlenbrook S. Optimal operation of the Eastern Nile System using Genetic Algorithm, and benefits distributionofwaterresourcesdevelopment. Water (Switzerland) 2018;10. doi:10.3390/w10070921. [13] Amin DM, Kotb A. Assessment of the Skill of Seasonal Meteorological Forecasts in the Eastern Nile. Nile Water Sci Eng J 2015;8:31–40. [14] Siam MS, Eltahir EAB. Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow. Nat Clim Chang 2017;7:350–4. doi:10.1038/nclimate3273. [15] Wheeler KG, Hall JW, Abdo GM, Dadson SJ, Kasprzyk JR, Smith R, et al. Exploring Cooperative Transboundary River Management Strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin. Water Resour Res 2018;54:9224– 54. doi:10.1029/2017WR022149. [16] Ouarda TBMJ, Labadie JW, Fontane DG. Indexed sequential hydrologic modeling for hydropower capacity estimation. J Am Water Resour Assoc 1997;33:1337–49. doi:10.1111/j.1752- 1688.1997.tb03557.x.