Summary 1. African livestock markets are growing fast: they are as attractive as, if not more attractive than livestock markets in other world regions 2. Milk, beef and poultry markets will provide major business opportunities, which differ by geographical region 3. On paper, all types of livestock producers could be efficient and tap into growing market opportunities: but do all of them – and in particular the smallholders – have enough incentives to invest in livestock? 4. Policies and instititional reforms are ky to ensure that markets are utilized to promote an efficient and equitable growth of livestock

1. Joint project of the World Bank, FAO, AU-IBAR, ILRI with support from the Gates Foundation
Investing in African Livestock
Business opportunities in 2030-2050
Ugo Pica-Ciamarra (FAO), Derek Baker (ILRI), Nancy Morgan (FAO)
Cheikh Ly (FAO) & Simplice Nouala (AU-IBAR)
Africa Livestock Conference and Exhibition
June 26th – 28th 2013
Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya

2. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Outline
1. The issue and data source
2. African livestock markets vs other
world regions
3. African livestock markets by product
4. African livestock markets by region
5. Who can benefit from / tap into
livestock market opportunities?
6. Summary

3. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Outline
1. The issue and data source
2. African livestock markets vs other
world regions
3. African livestock markets by product
4. African livestock markets by region
5. Who can benefit from / tap into
livestock market opportunities?
6. Summary

4. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Africa is fast growing
GDP growth rate
2011 2012 2013 2014
5.2% 5.7% 5.7% 5.4%
Business opportunities

5. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
What about livestock?
Business opportunities?
Self employed / smallholders
Large scale commercial
enterprises
Medium scale farmers

6. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
What about livestock?
Trends in demand for /
consumption of livestock
products
• Food and non-food products
• Quantity
• Quality
• Price
• Input / output price
• Retail forms
• Etc.
Business opportunities?

7. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
What about livestock?
Trends in demand for /
consumption of livestock
products
• Food and non-food products
• Quantity
• Quality
• Price
• Input / output price
• Retail forms
• Etc.
Business opportunities?

8. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Data source
FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit:
• 2005/07, 2030, 2050
One indicator per year
Production, food, feed, waste, etc.
World regions and sub-regions
• Demand driven model
Population and income
Structural change in diets
Resource availability

9. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Outline
1. The issue and data source
2. African livestock markets vs other
world regions
3. African livestock markets by product
4. African livestock markets by region
5. Who can benefit from / tap into
livestock market opportunities?
6. Summary

10. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Meat markets: Africa & others
African meat market is and
will be smaller than most
meat markets in other
world regions
African population and meat
consumption as proportion of
world’s total
% of world
population
% of meat
market
2005/07 15.5 % 4.3 %
2050 26.8 % 8.4 %
mio
tons

11. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Milk markets: Africa & others
African milk market is and
will be smaller than most
milk markets in other
world regions
African population and milk
consumption as proportion of
world’s total
% of world
population
% of milk
market
2005/07 15.5 % 6.3 %
2050 26.8 % 10.1 %
mio
tons

12. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Market size is not
enough to appreciate
business opportunities
Business opportunities are
better measured by:
• Projected changes in the
quantity of meat / milk
consumed over a
reference period
• Speed of change (growth
rate)
Milk markets: Africa & others
mio
tons

13. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Milk market opportunities in
developed countries
Absolute
increase
Annual
growth rate
2005/07-
2050
+ 47 mio
tons
+ 0.4 %
Milk market opportunities in
Africa
Absolute
increase
Annual
growth rate
2005/07-
2050
+ 51 mio
tons
+ 2.2 %
Milk markets: Africa & others
mio
tons

14. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Meat markets: business opportunities
Annual growth rate
2005/07 to 2050
0.4 %
2.8 %
2.4 %
1.3 %
4.1 %
1.4 %
Absolute increase in consumption, mio tons

15. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Annual growth rate
2005/07 to 2050
0.4 %
2.8 %
2.4 %
1.3 %
4.1 %
1.4 %
Only ES Asia and South
Asia are more
attractive markets than
Africa in terms of
growing demand
Africa is the second
fastest growing meat
market
Meat markets: business opportunities
Absolute increase in consumption, mio tons

16. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Annual growth rate
2005/07 to 2050
0.4 %
2.2 %
1.7 %
1.1 %
2.0 %
1.5 %
Milk markets: business opportunities
Absolute increase in consumption, mio tons

17. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Annual growth rate
2005/07 to 2050
0.4 %
2.2 %
1.7 %
1.1 %
2.0 %
1.5 %
Africa is the second
largest market in terms
of growing demand
Africa is the fastest
growing milk market in
the world
Milk markets: business opportunities
Absolute increase in consumption, mio tons

18. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Outline
1. The issue and data source
2. African livestock markets vs other
world regions
3. African livestock markets by product
4. African livestock markets by region
5. Who can benefit from / tap into
livestock market opportunities?
6. Summary

19. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
African livestock markets by sizeMiotons

20. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
African livestock markets by sizeMiotons
Milk is and will be
the largest market,
followed by beef
and poultry
1st3rd2nd

21. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
African livestock markets: opportunitiesMiotons
8.9 8.9 2.6 3.8 4.5 50.2
Additional volume (mio tons) consumed
from 2005-07 to 2050
1st2nd2nd

22. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Miotons
2.5 3.3 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.2
Annual growth rate (%) in consumption
from 2005-07 to 2050
3rd 1st 1st
African livestock markets: opportunities

23. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Africa livestock markets by value, 2005/07US$billion
Constantprice2005/07

24. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Africa livestock markets by value, 2050US$billion
Constantprice2005/07

25. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Africa livestock markets: opportunitiesUS$billion
Constantprice2005/07
+ 30.6 + 26.1+ 21.6

26. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Outline
1. The issue and data source
2. African livestock markets vs other
world regions
3. African livestock markets by product
4. African livestock markets by region
5. Who can benefit from / tap into
livestock market opportunities?
6. Summary

27. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
African regions

28. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
African milk markets
Milk 2005/07 = 32.4 mio tons
• Eastern Africa and Northern Africa are the
largest markets
• Over 60 % of the increased demand from
milk in 2005/07- 2050 from Eastern and
Northern Africa
• Annual growth rate ≈ 2%-3% in all regions
Milk 2050 = 82.6 mio tons

29. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
African beef markets
Beef 2005/07 = 4.7 mio tons
• Beef market is relatively uniform in terms
of its importance across regions
• Over 70 % of the increased demand for
beef in 2005/07- 2050 from Western,
Southern and Eastern Africa
• Annual growth rate ≈ 2%-3% in all regions
Beef 2050 = 13.6 mio tons

30. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
African poultry markets
Poultry 2005/07 = 4.7 mio tons
• Poultry market is dominated by Southern
and Nothern Africa
• Over 56 % of the increased demand in
2005/07- 2050 from Southern and
Northern Africa; 20 % from West Africa
• Annual growth rate ≈ 3%-6% in all regions
Poultry 2050 = 13.6 mio tons

31. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Outline
1. The issue and data source
2. African livestock markets vs other
world regions
3. African livestock markets by product
4. African livestock markets by region
5. Who can benefit from / tap into
livestock market opportunities?
6. Summary

32. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Trends in net trade
• African producers partly unable to
fully benefit from growing market
opportunities: trade balance is
worsening
• Imports of all livestock products
increasingly critical to satisfy
consumer’s demand

33. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Types of livestock producers
Large scale commercial
enterprises
Medium scale farmers
How can they better
utilize / benefit from
growing livestock
markets?
Smallholders / self-
employed

34. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Types of livestock producers
Large scale commercial
enterprises
Medium scale farmers
Smallholders / self-
employed
1.Efficient /
competitive?
2. Technologies /
incentives?

35. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Types of livestock producers: efficiency
Large scale commercial
enterprises
Medium scale farmers
Smallholders / self-
employed
1.Efficient /
competitive?
2. Technologies /
incentives?

36. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Types of livestock producers: incentives
Large scale commercial
enterprises
Medium scale farmers
Smallholders / self-
employed
1.Efficient /
competitive?
2. Technologies /
incentives?

37. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Types of livestock producers: incentives
Large scale commercial
enterprises
Medium scale farmers
Smallholders / self-
employed
1.Efficient /
competitive?
2. Technologies /
incentives?

38. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
% of rural households keeping livestock
Livestock keepers in African countries

39. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Majority are smallholders: average / median herd (TLU)
(0.80/0.50)
(1.93/0.50)
(0.47/0.13)
(3.17/0.33)
(2.20/0.88)
(1.25/0.45)
(1.41/0.60)
Livestock keepers in African countries

40. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
(0.80/0.50)
(1.93/0.50)
(0.47/0.13)
(3.17/0.33)
(2.20/0.88)
(1.25/0.45)
(1.41/0.60)
Livestock keepers in African countries
• What are the incentives for a farmer keeping one
or few TLU to produce some surplus and sell it to
the market?
• What are the benefits for her / his family (5
members)?
• Can all of them become successful livestock
entrepreneurs? Wouldn’t the market collapse?
• National / regional governments have a major role
to play (targeting)
Majority are smallholders: average / median herd (TLU)

41. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Outline
1. The issue and data source
2. African livestock markets vs other
world regions
3. African livestock markets by product
4. African livestock markets by region
5. Who can benefit from / tap into
livestock market opportunities?
6. Summary

42. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org
Summary
1. African livestock markets are growing fast: they are as
attractive as, if not more attractive than livestock markets
in other world regions
2. Milk, beef and poultry markets will provide major business
opportunities, which differ by geographical region
3. On paper, all types of livestock producers could be efficient
and tap into growing market opportunities: but do all of
them – and in particular the smallholders – have enough
incentives to invest in livestock?
4. Policies and instititional reforms are ky to ensure that
markets are utilized to promote an efficient and equitable
growth of livestock

43. Joint project of the World Bank, FAO, AU-IBAR, ILRI with support from the Gates Foundation
Thank you