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INFERENTIAL
STATISTICS
DesmondAyim-Aboagye, Ph.D
SAM PLING DISTRIBUTIONS AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING
OVERVIEW
 We will understand the logic underlying the testing
of hypothesis
 Understanding of sampling, and probability will be
brought to bear in the exploration of hypothesis
 Testable questions or focused predictions
Steps and
Motivation
1. A hypothesis is identified
2. Research is executed
3. Data are collected
4. Inferential statistics are used
5. To test the viability of the hypothesis
6. Was an anticipated relationship found
within the data?
EXAMPLE 1
Thisresearcherwantsto
knowifthetwo-prong
treatmentismore
beneficialthanbehavior
therapyalone
 A clinical psychologist
believes that the link
between obsessive
thoughts and behavior can
be disrupted with a
combination of behavioral
and cognitive therapies.
 Control group of (0bsessive
compulsive disorder) OC
patients receives standard
behavior therapy
 Experimental group is
exposed to the same
therapy coupled with work
on reducing obsessive
thoughts.
EXAMPLE 2
Thisresearchwantsto
determineiffourth-years
studentsaremorelikelyto
voteforliberalcandidates,
whilefirst-yearstudentswill
tendtoendorseconservative
candidates.
 A political psychologist
studies how higher
education affects college
students' voting behavior in
national elections.
 He hypothesizes that
students generally become
more liberal and politically
aware across their four
college years.
 He sets to compare the
voting behavior of first-year
students with that of
fourth-year students in a
mock national election.
 Students from both classes
read a series of mock
candidate profiles and then
answer questions about
their beliefs concerning a
variety of public and social
policy issues.
EXAMPLE 3
A Health
Psychologist
Purpose
Hebelievesthatmiddle-aged
individualswho carefor
elderlyparentsareatgreater
riskforillnessthan similarly
agedpersonswith no
caregiverresponsibilities.
 Study
 The researcher interviews
the two sets of adults and
then gains permission to
examine their medical
records at the end of a 1-
year period.
 Hypothesis
 The care giver group will
show more frequent
illnesses, visits to the doctor,
hospitalizations, and
medicine prescriptions than
the noncaregiver group.
Important!
 None of these researchers can ever hope to
measure the responses of every possible
respondent in their population of interest, so
such data are usually collected in the form of
some random sample.
Random
sample is
divided into 2
distinct
groups
Group 1
Control
group
Group 2
Experiment
al group
Each group is then exposed to
one level of the independent
variable—the variable
manipulated by or under the
control of the investigator.
HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
Hypothesis testing entails comparing
the groups' reactions to the dependent
measure following the introduction of
the independent variable.
PRACTICAL
MATTER
 Did the independent
measure create an
observed and
systematic change in
the dependent
measure?
 Did the experimental
group behave or
respond differently
than the control group
after both were
exposed to the
independent variable?
THEORETICAL
MATTER
 Following exposure to
the independent
variable, is the 𝝁 of the
experimental group
verifiably different
from the 𝝁 of the
control group?
 In other words,

 Can we attribute the
differential and
measured between
group differences to the
fact that the control
group and experimental
group now effectively
represent different
populations with
different parameters?
We now turn
to:
1. How to draw samples from population?
2. How do we make estimation?
3. How do we conduct experiment?
Population
Random Sample
Representative
EXTIMATION OF POPULATION PARAMETERS
Things we
must be
concerned
with:
 Representative of the population from which it was
drawn
 The average behavior witnessed in the sample
reflects what is usually true of the population
 The sample statistics N (i.e., sample mean ˉχ and
standard deviation, s) are similar to those of
population's parameters (i.e., population mean
𝝁 and standard deviation σ)
Point
estimation
Point estimation is the process
of using a sample statistic (e.g.,
ˉχ, s) to estimate the value of
some population parameter
(e.g.,𝝁, σ)
ˉχ ≅ 𝝁
ˉχ ≅ 𝝁 sample mean is close or
equal in value to population
mean
Sampling
error
Any given sample statistic is
apt to contain some degree of
error (i.e., the difference
between estimated and actual
reality)—sampling error
Overcoming point
estimation's
limitations can be
achieved through
a somewhat more
laborious process
known as Interval
estimations
Interval estimation involves careful
examination and estimation of the
variability noted among sample
statistics based on the repeated
sampling of the same population.
STATISTIC
INFERENCE
AND
HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
Random Sample
Representativeness
Divide into two a. Control group b. Experimental
group
Present each group with a distinct level of some
independent variable and then measures subsequent
reactions based on changes to the dependent variable.
MEAN
DIFFERENCES
Whether the sample data—now
divided into two groups—show
detectable differences due to the
influence of some independent
variable
This process of
detection centers
on the role
inferential
statistics play in
hypothesis
testing, which is
generally to
demonstrate
mean differences.
How does the average behavior in one
group of participants differ from the
average behavior found in other
groups? Did the manipulation of an
independent variable lead to a
different average level of behavior in
the dependent measure for the
experimental mental group than the
control group?
Control group and Experimental group (manipulated)
Mean
Sample Mean, χ,
average
 ˉχ = 𝜒/N
Population mean 𝝁
 𝝁 = 𝜒/N
What is
Hypothesis
Testing?
Importance of
Hypothesis
testing
 Whether a sample statistic fits one or another
population
 Independent variable impact on a dependent
variable
 Researchers are able to make educated guesses
when limited information is available to guide
judgment.
 Involving every person or animal is impossible,
impractical, and nonsensical.
 Statistical inference enables researchers to evaluate
the veracity of a hypothesis as if a whole population
of participants were available instead of merely a
small representative sampling.
Random sample
drawn from
Population
Control
Group
Experime
ntal
Group
Ctr level
Indep Var
Exp level
Inde Var
Does a diff
exist between
sample
means?
Random Ass to
one of 2 Groups
Χc ,Sc Χe ,Se
Is the sample mean of the control Is the sample mean of the experim gr
Group ≅population μ? ≠to the original population μ?
Figure 9.1. The process of sampling and inferring whether a statistic is from one or another population.
Is the sample mean of the control
Is the sample mean of the experim gr
Group ≅population μ?
≠to the original population μ?
Distribution of
Sample
Means
A distribution of sample means is a group or
collection of sample means based on random
samples of a fixed size N from some
population (Several Samples chosen to
compare them. USA Voting as example, ˉχ1,
ˉχ2, ˉχ3… ˉχ N).
X
Y
X1
X2
X3
Xn
Unknown P 𝜇
Repeated Samples
Drawn
Sampling Distribution of X
A Sampling DistributionCreated by Repeated Sampling (Fixed Sample Size N)
of a Population
Sampling
Distribution
A sampling distribution is a
distribution comprised of statistic
(e.g., ˉχ, S) based on samples of
some fixed size N drawn from a
larger population.
Important!!
A sampling distribution of
means of some fixed size N will
take on the shape of the
standard normal distribution.
CENTRAL
LIMIT
THEOREM
 The Central LimitTheorem proposes that as the size
of any sample, N, becomes infinitely large in size,
the shape of the sampling distribution of the mean
approaches normality—that is, it takes on the
appearance of the familiar bell-shaped curve – with a
mean equal to μ, the population's mean, and the
standard deviation equal to σ/ 𝑵, which is known as
the standard error of the mean. As N increases in
size, the standard error of the mean or 𝝈ˉχ will
decrease in magnitude, indicating that the sample
will be close in value to the actual population μ.
Thus, it will also be true that μ ˉχ ≅ 𝛍 and that 𝝈ˉχ ≅
𝛔/ 𝑵.
Y
X
40 55 70 85 100 115 130 145
160
𝝁
Figure 5.1. Hypothetical distribution of scores on an IQ test
Third Second First First Second Third
𝜎 𝜎 𝜎 𝜎 𝜎 𝜎
Below 𝜇 Below𝜇 Below 𝜇 Above 𝜇 Above 𝜇 Above 𝜇
Pop mean (𝜇) of 100
Standard deviation 𝜎15
110 1st 𝜎 around the mean
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
The mean of
any sampling
distribution of a
sample statistic
is referred to as
the sampling
distribution's
expected value.
Symbolically μ ˉχ
 Formula for calculating
μ ˉχ = ˉ𝜒/Nk

Distribution's
Standard
Error
The standard deviation of any
sampling distribution of a sample
statistic is referred to as the
sampling distribution's standard
error. (standard error of the mean)
Standard
Error
 Symbolically 𝝈ˉχ
 Formula for calculating it
𝝈ˉχ = √𝝈
2
/N = 𝜎/ 𝑁


These must be known N is sample
size,
𝛔
2
is population variance, σ
population standard deviation.
LAWOF
LARGE
NUMBERS
The law of large numbers proposes that
the larger the size of a sample (N), the
greater the probability that the sample
mean (ˉχ) will be close to the value of
the population mean (μ).
STANDARD
ERRORAND
SAMPLING
ERROR
Sampling error is the difference between a
given sample mean and a population mean (ˉχ
- μ).
Theoretically, if we have a distribution of
sufficient size, we could readily show that the
(ˉχ - μ) = 0.
(That is, the sum of the sampling errors—the
positive as well as negative differences
between sample means and a population
mean—would be equal to 0. In theory, these
random deviations would cancel one another
out.)
ESTIMATING
THE
STANDARD
ERROROF
THE MEAN

 The standard error of the mean provides a
researcher with a very important advantage:
The sample mean estimates the value of a
population mean.
 A smaller standard error specifies a close
match between a sample mean and a
population mean. On the other hand, a larger
error points to considerable disparity
between the two indices.
To determine
standard
error:
 1. Estimating population variance, and
 2. Standard deviation from known values of
 a. sample variance and
 b. standard deviation.
 Sample variance formula
 S² = ⅀(χ -ˉχ)²
 N
Standard
deviation
formula
S = √S² = √⅀(χ -ˉχ)²
 N
A biased estimate can be corrected,
that is, converted into an unbiased
estimate by reducing the value of the
denominator by one observation— in
formula terms, N becomes N – 1.

σ² = ŝ² = ⅀(χ -ˉχ)²
 N- 1
 The caret (ˆ) over ŝ indicates that the statistic is an unbiased
estimate.
Population
Standard
Deviation (σ)
The population standard deviation (σ)
can be determined by the formula

σ = ŝ =√ŝ² =√⅀(χ -ˉχ)²
 N- 1

 By relying on the formula and logic behind these
unbiased estimators, we can now approximate the
variance of the population (σ²-χ)

 To do so, of course, we need to rely on estimated
variance of the population (s²-χ) and the estimated
error of the mean (sˉχ).

 Given that we do not know the true values of σ² and
σ, we must use estimates provided by ŝ² and ŝ,
respectively.
 Estimated σ²-χ = s²-χ = ŝ²/N.

 It follows that the standard error mean can be
estimated by using :
 σˉχ = sˉχ = √ŝ²/N = ŝ/√N

 when ŝ² and ŝ may be unavailable, the standard error
of the mean can be estimated using this formula:

 Estimate σˉχ = sˉχ = s/√N-1 = √⅀ (x -ˉχ)²/N(N -1) =
√ss/N(N- 1)

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Inferential statistics

  • 1. INFERENTIAL STATISTICS DesmondAyim-Aboagye, Ph.D SAM PLING DISTRIBUTIONS AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING
  • 2. OVERVIEW  We will understand the logic underlying the testing of hypothesis  Understanding of sampling, and probability will be brought to bear in the exploration of hypothesis  Testable questions or focused predictions
  • 3. Steps and Motivation 1. A hypothesis is identified 2. Research is executed 3. Data are collected 4. Inferential statistics are used 5. To test the viability of the hypothesis 6. Was an anticipated relationship found within the data?
  • 4. EXAMPLE 1 Thisresearcherwantsto knowifthetwo-prong treatmentismore beneficialthanbehavior therapyalone  A clinical psychologist believes that the link between obsessive thoughts and behavior can be disrupted with a combination of behavioral and cognitive therapies.  Control group of (0bsessive compulsive disorder) OC patients receives standard behavior therapy  Experimental group is exposed to the same therapy coupled with work on reducing obsessive thoughts.
  • 5. EXAMPLE 2 Thisresearchwantsto determineiffourth-years studentsaremorelikelyto voteforliberalcandidates, whilefirst-yearstudentswill tendtoendorseconservative candidates.  A political psychologist studies how higher education affects college students' voting behavior in national elections.  He hypothesizes that students generally become more liberal and politically aware across their four college years.  He sets to compare the voting behavior of first-year students with that of fourth-year students in a mock national election.  Students from both classes read a series of mock candidate profiles and then answer questions about their beliefs concerning a variety of public and social policy issues.
  • 6. EXAMPLE 3 A Health Psychologist Purpose Hebelievesthatmiddle-aged individualswho carefor elderlyparentsareatgreater riskforillnessthan similarly agedpersonswith no caregiverresponsibilities.  Study  The researcher interviews the two sets of adults and then gains permission to examine their medical records at the end of a 1- year period.  Hypothesis  The care giver group will show more frequent illnesses, visits to the doctor, hospitalizations, and medicine prescriptions than the noncaregiver group.
  • 7. Important!  None of these researchers can ever hope to measure the responses of every possible respondent in their population of interest, so such data are usually collected in the form of some random sample.
  • 8. Random sample is divided into 2 distinct groups Group 1 Control group Group 2 Experiment al group
  • 9. Each group is then exposed to one level of the independent variable—the variable manipulated by or under the control of the investigator.
  • 10. HYPOTHESIS TESTING Hypothesis testing entails comparing the groups' reactions to the dependent measure following the introduction of the independent variable.
  • 11. PRACTICAL MATTER  Did the independent measure create an observed and systematic change in the dependent measure?  Did the experimental group behave or respond differently than the control group after both were exposed to the independent variable?
  • 12. THEORETICAL MATTER  Following exposure to the independent variable, is the 𝝁 of the experimental group verifiably different from the 𝝁 of the control group?  In other words,   Can we attribute the differential and measured between group differences to the fact that the control group and experimental group now effectively represent different populations with different parameters?
  • 13. We now turn to: 1. How to draw samples from population? 2. How do we make estimation? 3. How do we conduct experiment?
  • 15. Things we must be concerned with:  Representative of the population from which it was drawn  The average behavior witnessed in the sample reflects what is usually true of the population  The sample statistics N (i.e., sample mean ˉχ and standard deviation, s) are similar to those of population's parameters (i.e., population mean 𝝁 and standard deviation σ)
  • 16. Point estimation Point estimation is the process of using a sample statistic (e.g., ˉχ, s) to estimate the value of some population parameter (e.g.,𝝁, σ)
  • 17. ˉχ ≅ 𝝁 ˉχ ≅ 𝝁 sample mean is close or equal in value to population mean
  • 18. Sampling error Any given sample statistic is apt to contain some degree of error (i.e., the difference between estimated and actual reality)—sampling error
  • 19. Overcoming point estimation's limitations can be achieved through a somewhat more laborious process known as Interval estimations Interval estimation involves careful examination and estimation of the variability noted among sample statistics based on the repeated sampling of the same population.
  • 20. STATISTIC INFERENCE AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING Random Sample Representativeness Divide into two a. Control group b. Experimental group Present each group with a distinct level of some independent variable and then measures subsequent reactions based on changes to the dependent variable.
  • 21. MEAN DIFFERENCES Whether the sample data—now divided into two groups—show detectable differences due to the influence of some independent variable
  • 22. This process of detection centers on the role inferential statistics play in hypothesis testing, which is generally to demonstrate mean differences. How does the average behavior in one group of participants differ from the average behavior found in other groups? Did the manipulation of an independent variable lead to a different average level of behavior in the dependent measure for the experimental mental group than the control group? Control group and Experimental group (manipulated)
  • 23. Mean Sample Mean, χ, average  ˉχ = 𝜒/N Population mean 𝝁  𝝁 = 𝜒/N
  • 25. Importance of Hypothesis testing  Whether a sample statistic fits one or another population  Independent variable impact on a dependent variable  Researchers are able to make educated guesses when limited information is available to guide judgment.  Involving every person or animal is impossible, impractical, and nonsensical.  Statistical inference enables researchers to evaluate the veracity of a hypothesis as if a whole population of participants were available instead of merely a small representative sampling.
  • 26. Random sample drawn from Population Control Group Experime ntal Group Ctr level Indep Var Exp level Inde Var Does a diff exist between sample means? Random Ass to one of 2 Groups Χc ,Sc Χe ,Se Is the sample mean of the control Is the sample mean of the experim gr Group ≅population μ? ≠to the original population μ? Figure 9.1. The process of sampling and inferring whether a statistic is from one or another population. Is the sample mean of the control Is the sample mean of the experim gr Group ≅population μ? ≠to the original population μ?
  • 27. Distribution of Sample Means A distribution of sample means is a group or collection of sample means based on random samples of a fixed size N from some population (Several Samples chosen to compare them. USA Voting as example, ˉχ1, ˉχ2, ˉχ3… ˉχ N).
  • 28. X Y X1 X2 X3 Xn Unknown P 𝜇 Repeated Samples Drawn Sampling Distribution of X A Sampling DistributionCreated by Repeated Sampling (Fixed Sample Size N) of a Population
  • 29. Sampling Distribution A sampling distribution is a distribution comprised of statistic (e.g., ˉχ, S) based on samples of some fixed size N drawn from a larger population.
  • 30. Important!! A sampling distribution of means of some fixed size N will take on the shape of the standard normal distribution.
  • 31. CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM  The Central LimitTheorem proposes that as the size of any sample, N, becomes infinitely large in size, the shape of the sampling distribution of the mean approaches normality—that is, it takes on the appearance of the familiar bell-shaped curve – with a mean equal to μ, the population's mean, and the standard deviation equal to σ/ 𝑵, which is known as the standard error of the mean. As N increases in size, the standard error of the mean or 𝝈ˉχ will decrease in magnitude, indicating that the sample will be close in value to the actual population μ. Thus, it will also be true that μ ˉχ ≅ 𝛍 and that 𝝈ˉχ ≅ 𝛔/ 𝑵.
  • 32. Y X 40 55 70 85 100 115 130 145 160 𝝁 Figure 5.1. Hypothetical distribution of scores on an IQ test Third Second First First Second Third 𝜎 𝜎 𝜎 𝜎 𝜎 𝜎 Below 𝜇 Below𝜇 Below 𝜇 Above 𝜇 Above 𝜇 Above 𝜇 Pop mean (𝜇) of 100 Standard deviation 𝜎15 110 1st 𝜎 around the mean NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
  • 33. The mean of any sampling distribution of a sample statistic is referred to as the sampling distribution's expected value. Symbolically μ ˉχ  Formula for calculating μ ˉχ = ˉ𝜒/Nk 
  • 34. Distribution's Standard Error The standard deviation of any sampling distribution of a sample statistic is referred to as the sampling distribution's standard error. (standard error of the mean)
  • 35. Standard Error  Symbolically 𝝈ˉχ  Formula for calculating it 𝝈ˉχ = √𝝈 2 /N = 𝜎/ 𝑁  
  • 36. These must be known N is sample size, 𝛔 2 is population variance, σ population standard deviation.
  • 37. LAWOF LARGE NUMBERS The law of large numbers proposes that the larger the size of a sample (N), the greater the probability that the sample mean (ˉχ) will be close to the value of the population mean (μ).
  • 38. STANDARD ERRORAND SAMPLING ERROR Sampling error is the difference between a given sample mean and a population mean (ˉχ - μ). Theoretically, if we have a distribution of sufficient size, we could readily show that the (ˉχ - μ) = 0. (That is, the sum of the sampling errors—the positive as well as negative differences between sample means and a population mean—would be equal to 0. In theory, these random deviations would cancel one another out.)
  • 39. ESTIMATING THE STANDARD ERROROF THE MEAN   The standard error of the mean provides a researcher with a very important advantage: The sample mean estimates the value of a population mean.  A smaller standard error specifies a close match between a sample mean and a population mean. On the other hand, a larger error points to considerable disparity between the two indices.
  • 40. To determine standard error:  1. Estimating population variance, and  2. Standard deviation from known values of  a. sample variance and  b. standard deviation.  Sample variance formula  S² = ⅀(χ -ˉχ)²  N
  • 41. Standard deviation formula S = √S² = √⅀(χ -ˉχ)²  N
  • 42. A biased estimate can be corrected, that is, converted into an unbiased estimate by reducing the value of the denominator by one observation— in formula terms, N becomes N – 1.  σ² = ŝ² = ⅀(χ -ˉχ)²  N- 1  The caret (ˆ) over ŝ indicates that the statistic is an unbiased estimate.
  • 43. Population Standard Deviation (σ) The population standard deviation (σ) can be determined by the formula  σ = ŝ =√ŝ² =√⅀(χ -ˉχ)²  N- 1 
  • 44.  By relying on the formula and logic behind these unbiased estimators, we can now approximate the variance of the population (σ²-χ)   To do so, of course, we need to rely on estimated variance of the population (s²-χ) and the estimated error of the mean (sˉχ).   Given that we do not know the true values of σ² and σ, we must use estimates provided by ŝ² and ŝ, respectively.
  • 45.  Estimated σ²-χ = s²-χ = ŝ²/N.   It follows that the standard error mean can be estimated by using :  σˉχ = sˉχ = √ŝ²/N = ŝ/√N   when ŝ² and ŝ may be unavailable, the standard error of the mean can be estimated using this formula:   Estimate σˉχ = sˉχ = s/√N-1 = √⅀ (x -ˉχ)²/N(N -1) = √ss/N(N- 1)