Using data from IFPRI's Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) and secondary data, IFPRI Country Representative Dr. Akhter Ahmed presents results on poverty, agricultural production, nutrition, and policy conclusions.

1. FOOD SECURITY IN BANGLADESH
Presented by: Akhter Ahmed
Country Representative for Bangladesh
International Food Policy Research Institute
Presented at: Delegation of the European Union to Bangladesh
24 May 2017
What Role for Social Safety Nets?

2. Page 2
3 types of food insecurity and role of safety nets
1) Chronic food insecurity: About 20 million Bangladeshis
who cannot purchase enough rice to meet energy
requirements.
➢ Productive safety nets
2) Transitory food insecurity: Those who normally meet
energy requirements, but may lose access to food due to
shocks.
➢ Emergency relief, social protection to build resilience
3) Hidden hunger: A large percentage of the population is
food-insecure due to diet quality vs. quantity.
➢Safety net + nutrition behavior change communication

3. IFPRI has created a comprehensive database
for food policy analysis in Bangladesh
❖IFPRI-PRSSP’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey
(BIHS): most comprehensive, nationally representative rural
household survey to date. Largest panel survey.
❖4 unique features of data collection:
1. plot-level agricultural production
2. individual food intakes of all HH members
3. anthropometry measurements of all HH members
4. data to measure women’s empowerment in
agriculture index (WEAI)
❖BIHS sampling is statistically representative
✓ nationally of rural Bangladesh
✓ rural areas for each of the 7 administrative divisions
✓ USAID-supported Feed the Future Zone in southern
Bangladesh

4. IFPRI’s BIHS: Big data, big impact
❖ Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS): Nationally
representative household survey. 2011 - 2015 panel.
❖ Downloads of BIHS dataset to date: 55,000
❖ Diverse users across 6 continents

5. BIHS: Big data, big impact
Downloads of 2011 BIHS dataset: 600 (2013)  14,000 (now)
Downloads of 2015 BIHS dataset: 55,000 (now)
Diverse users across 6 continents

6. Food Availability
Changing Scenario of Agriculture

7. Agrarian structure has important policy
implications
IFPRI BIHS 2015
Land tenure patterns Forms of tenancy
37
45
13
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percent
36 37
27
0
10
20
30
40
Pure tenant
(no land
owned)
Own land only Mixed tenant
(own
land+land
taken-in)
Percent

8. Rice production more than tripled since liberation
Total rice area and production (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS),
various years)
6,736
9,774
34,773
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1947-48
1949-50
1951-52
1953-54
1955-56
1957-58
1559-60
1961-62
1963-64
1965-66
1967-68
1969-70
1971-72
1973-74
1975-76
1977-78
1979-80
1981-82
1983-84
1985-86
1987-88
1989-90
1991-92
1993-94
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
2015-16
Areain‘000acresandproductionin‘000mt
Total rice area Total rice production Expon. (Total rice production)

9. Agricultural growth has slowed down
❖Agricultural growth has declined
mainly due to drop in rice
production.
❖Certain sub-sectors are thriving:
❖Fish production: average annual
growth rate 5.5% over 5 years
(2007/08 to 2013)
❖Livestock subsector: average
annual growth rate 3% over 5 years
(2007/08 to 2013)
Average agricultural growth rates (%)
Source: BBS, various years
4.7
2.4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2006/07 - 2010/11 2011/12 - 2015/16
Percent/year

10. National growth in crop production
(BBS, various years)
Annual growth rates, FY2007-2011 (%) Annual growth rates, FY2012-2016 (%)
5.5
8.9
-7.2
8.7
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Rice Maize Pulses Tomatoes
-0.3
23.3
13.2
16.1
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rice Maize Pulses Tomatoes

11. Crop diversity increased: Simpson Diversification
Index, by division
IFPRI BIHS data
0.19
0.18
0.19
0.27 0.27
0.19
0.05
0.21
0.29
0.18
0.23
0.30
0.28
0.22
0.04
0.24
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Bangladesh
2011/12 2015
The Simpson diversification index is calculated as 𝑆𝐷𝐼 = 1 − σ𝑖=1
𝑛
𝑃𝑖
2
, where Pi is the
proportionate area of the ith crop in gross cropped area.

12. Real price of rice declined significantly
National average wholesale price of coarse rice (BBS, various years)
3740
1133
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Tkperquintal

13. Magnitude of rice price seasonality reduced
(BBS, various years)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Percentage
Lagged moving average
1977-1979 1991-2000 2011-2015

14. Food Access
Poverty Dynamics and Income

15. Prevalence of poverty: Percent of people living on
less than $1.25/day in rural Bangladesh
IFPRI BIHS data
Change in poverty headcount in rural Bangladesh:
❖ 39.6% in 2011 29.4% in 2015
➢Daily per capita consumption expenditures from 2011/12
and 2015 IFPRI household surveys were adjusted for
inflation using Basic Needs Price Index (2005 base year)
obtained from the World Bank
➢Used the international poverty line of $1.25 per day,
measured at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP)
exchange rate for Bangladesh: PPP$1.00=25.494 taka
(World Bank)
➢Calculated local currency equivalent of PPP $1.25 a day
poverty line using 2012 and 2015 BNPI estimates
15

16. Dynamics of poverty in rural Bangladesh:
Changes from 2011 to 2015
IFPRI BIHS data
16
52.2
20.0 19.7
8.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Non-poor remained non-
poor
Poor remained poor Poor moved out of
poverty
Non-poor fell into
povery
Percentofruralpopulation

17. Why do the poor remain poor?
Using multinomial logit regression and IFPRI BIHS panel data, we
examined probable reasons why the poor remained in poverty
from 2011 to 2015. Main factors that increase the likelihood of
remaining in poverty are:
❖Low levels of human and physical assets: Lack of education of
HH heads, land holding, and reduction in total value of other
assets
❖Decrease in nonfarm income share in total income
❖Decrease in women’s empowerment in agriculture (WEAI)
❖Decrease in savings; no remittances
❖No access to electricity and no ownership of cell phone
❖Longer distance to main road
17

18. Falling into poverty
Key results from multinomial logit regression suggest that the
following factors tend to prevent households from backsliding
into poverty:
❖More schooling of primary male and females in HH
❖Higher value of asset holding and increase in savings
❖Receives remittances
❖Access to electricity
❖Owns mobile phone
❖For social safety net beneficiaries, if income transfer is at
least 1,500 taka ($19) per month per household.
18

19. What factors affect farmers’ income?
Using random effects panel regression and a sub-sample of IFPRI
BIHS data, results show that farmers’ income tends to increase if:
❖HH male head and female spouse have at least secondary school
education
❖HH male head and female spouse have access to commercial loans
❖Women are more empowered (measured by WEAI)
❖Non-farm income share increases
❖Have access to electricity (solar panel or national grid) and own cell
phone
❖Domestic and international remittances increase
Farmers’ income tends to decrease when:
❖ Share of cropped land under rice cultivation increases

20. National agricultural wage increased sharply
Wage increase helps the poorest (BBS, various years)
❖In June 2008, agricultural
laborers could buy 4.5 kg
of rice from a day’s wage
❖In June 2014, day’s wage
increased to 9 kg of rice.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Takaperday
Nominal Real

21. Remarkable improvement in women’s
empowerment status
21
27.1
46.6
43.2
28.7
47.2
58.3
59.8
18.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Women's empowerment
headcount
Men's empowerment
headcount
Women with gender
parity
Empowerment gap
Percent
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

22. Women’s empowerment helps break poverty
and hunger traps
IFPRI research results show that an increase in women’s
empowerment in agriculture (measured by WEAI) helps
❖people move out of poverty;
❖improve household, child, and maternal dietary diversity; and
❖increase agricultural diversity.
➢Results also show that increased agricultural diversity improves
household dietary diversity.
Source: IFPRI 2011-2015 BIHS surveys

23. Food Utilization
Nutrition Situation

24. Overwhelming dominance of rice in diet
Share of rice in total nutrient intake
71
57
62
44
78
67
70
52
63
46
52
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Food energy (calorie) Protein Zinc Iron
Percentageoftotalnutrientintake
All Poorest 20% Richest 20%
Source: IFPRI 2012 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS)

25. Most farmers grow one crop – Rice
25
54.4
20.1
12.5
5.9
3.9
51.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 Only rice
Percentageoffarmers
Number of crops grown in 2011
Source: IFPRI 2012 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS)

26. Household diet quality improved
(IFPRI BIHS data, estimated WFP’s Food Consumption Score:
0-112)
Average FCS Percentage of households with low FCS
(<42)
23.1
8.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Percent
56.4
66.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Foodconsumptionscore
26

27. 27
Despite decline, more than 1/3 of
children are still stunted (DHS, various years)
55
18
56
43
17
41
36
14
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Stunting (moderate or severe) Wasting (moderate or severe) Underweight (moderate or
severe)
Percent
1996-1997 2007 2014

28. A paradox: stunting is highest in regions
of lowest poverty, and vice versa
Source: WFP 2012
28
Child stunting Poverty

29. ❖Sylhet Division: lowest
women’s empowerment,
second highest income
❖Barisal Division: second
highest women’s
empowerment, second
lowest income
Paradox is partly explained by regional
difference in women’s empowerment
Estimated using IFPRI BIHS data
61.3
47.2 46.8
42.3 41.7
38.3
23.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Women’sempowerment(WEAI)headcount(%)
Source: IFPRI 2015 BIHS
29

30. ❖58% of girls in rural areas get
married before age 18
❖Adolescent girls aged <19
account for 36% of all child
births in rural Bangladesh
➢Early marriage Early
pregnancy  Low
birthweight Stunting
High rate of adolescent pregnancies is
associated with stunting in Bangladesh
58.3
40.8 39.8
34.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
<15 15-16 17-18 19-20
Stuntingprevalence(%)
Age groups (years)
Age at child birth and
rate of stunting
Source: 2014 DHSSource: IFPRI 2015 BIHS
30

31. Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh
What role for improving food security?

32. Page 32
Safety Nets in Bangladesh
❖Formal safety nets redistribute resources to poor people to
reduce their economic hardship.
❖Bangladesh has made significant progress in strengthening
social safety nets to assist the poor. Notable changes over
the years include:
➢Converting ration price subsidies to targeted food
distribution for the poor
➢Shifting the focus from relief to development
➢Engaging NGOs in program implementation

33. Percentage distribution of safety net programs by FY2013
SSN budget allocation: $2.7 billion, 12% of national budget
Top 10 programs account for 62% of total budget
33
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.8
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.4
7.0
7.0
7.4
8.8
10.3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Disaster Management
Allowance for Disabled
Economic Empowerment of Poor (EEP)
Ashrayan-2 Project
Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health
Residence for poor freedom fighters
Food Assistance for Chittagong Hill Tracts
Rural Employment and Road Maintenance Program
Gratuitous Relief
Social Development Foundation
National Service
Allowances for Destitute Women
Honorarium for Freedom Fighters
Revitalization of Community Healthcare Initiative
Fund for climate change
School Feeding Program
One Household One Farm
Secondary School Stipend
Allocation for various programs
Vulnerable Group Development
Old Age Allowance
Primary Education Stipend
Employment Generation Program for the Poor
Vulnerable Group Feeding
Test Relief
Food for Work
Open Market Sales
Source: General Economics Division, Ministry of Planning

34. Percentage of households in at least 1 safety net
program, by income groups
IFPRI BIHS data
34
60.9
52.3
47.7
39.2
22.0
44.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest) Rural Bangladesh
Percentageofhouseholds
Per capita expenditure quintile

35. Distribution of all safety net participants by income
groups
IFPRI BIHS data
35
28.8
23.7
21.2
17.1
9.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest)
Percentageofallparticipants
Per capita expenditure quintile

36. Targeting effectiveness of major safety net programs
IFPRI BIHS data
36
31
24
22
16
8
18
19
26
22
15
27
24
22
19
8
31
26
25
14
4
35
23
25
13
3
37
23
16
20
5
37
24
18
14
7
49
23
21
6
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest)
Percentofhouseholds
Primary School Stipend Secondary education stipend Old Age Allowance
GR OMS VGD
VGF EGPP

37. Page 37
Limited impact of safety nets on nutrition
❖Most existing evidence from evaluations (by IFPRI and
others) of major safety nets in Bangladesh show reduced
household poverty and improved food security but few
improvements in child nutritional status.
❖This leads to two key questions:
1. Are large-scale social protection interventions that
increase resources sufficient to improve child
nutrition?
2. Are there constraints other than resources, such as
nutrition knowledge, that also need to be addressed?

38. All modalities significantly increased
household diet quality in both regions:
Adding BCC gives a greater impact
(using WFP’s “Food Consumption Score”: 0-112)
6.9
9.1
6.9
23.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cash only Food only Cash+Food Cash+BCC
Foodconsumptionscore
North (baseline: 43.7)
Statistically significant Not significant
2.7
4.9 5.3
12.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cash only Food only Cash+Food Food+BCC
Foodconsumptionscore
South (baseline: 50.9)
Statistically significant Not significant

39. Adding BCC to safety net cash transfers increases
children’s diet diversity
(RCT with DID impacts relative to control, significant at ≤10% level)
6.1 7.3
11.7
6.4
24.6
10.9
22.8
36.0
15.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Eggs Legumes Legumes Eggs Legumes Dairy
products
Flesh
foods
Eggs Vit A
fruit and
veg
Cash Food Cash & Food Cash & BCC
Percentofchildren<42monthswhoconsumed
inpast24hours
Source: Ahmed et al. 2016 (IFPRI and WFP)

40. IFPRI-PRSSP research shows safety net cash transfer
+ nutrition education has greatest impact on child
nutrition
❖ IFPRI designed an experimental
program in Bangladesh called the
Transfer Modality Research Initia-
tive (TMRI).
❖ WFP implemented TMRI from
2012 to 2014 to determine what
combination of cash, food, and
nutrition behavior change
communication (BCC) in safety
nets brings the greatest benefits
for ultra-poor rural households.
❖ Cash + nutrition BCC led to a 7.3
percentage points decrease in
child stunting over the project
period—almost three times
greater than national average
decline in stunting.
46.0
38.7
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
Control Cash + BCC
Stuntingrateforchildren<5years(%)
In TMRI, child stunting reduced by
7.3 percentage points in two years

41. Policy Conclusions

42. Conclusions
42
❖Recent slowdown of agricultural growth needs attention.
❖Increase investments in agricultural research to promote rice
intensification/productivity.
❖Rural agricultural labor is no longer abundant, so policies should
focus on ways to improve productivity in the wake of rising labor
costs.
❖Mechanization, accelerating the adoption of modern agricultural
technologies for improving crop yields, and improving labor
productivity may ease farmers’ burden.
❖About 1/3 of all farm households are “pure tenants” (do not own
the land they work). Therefore, they have insecure, prohibitive,
and unstable access to land through sharecropping or land-
leasing arrangements, which act as a deterrent for technology
adoption. Policies should take into account the implications of
this important constraint.

43. Considerations
❖Accelerate agricultural diversity:
❖Remove risk from production of high-value, high nutritive
value crops through contract farming, agricultural credit,
etc.
❖Promote non-farm employment:
❖IFPRI’s poverty analyses show that an increased share of
non-farm income out of total income helps move people
out of poverty.
❖Promote agriculture-driven, non-farm activities (e.g.,
vocational training in repairs and servicing of ag
machineries, particularly for rural youth).
❖Gainfully employ rural youth in agricultural value chains
(e.g., packaging, transport).
43

44. Considerations
❖Links between early marriage and nutrition:
❖Pregnancy in girls who are still growing leads to
competition between the mother and the fetus for access
to nutrients, a battle which the fetus invariably loses.
❖IFPRI’s qualitative results found that girls marry early due
to (1) harassment by male youth, and (2) avoid paying
higher dowry.
➢A massive social campaign is needed to increase the
age of marriage, as well as to postpone pregnancy of
those girls who do marry early.
➢To delay pregnancy after marriage, promote effective family
planning
44

45. Considerations
❖Revamp social safety nets to reach the most vulnerable
to improve their livelihoods
• Improve the targeting performance
• Scale up effective programs
• Ensure sustainability of program benefits
• Integrate nutrition BCC into social safety nets
• Increase the size of transfers to generate sizable impacts on
food security and nutritional outcomes
• Consolidate and simplify programs and phase out high-cost,
inefficient programs
• Improve monitoring, evaluation, and learning
• Move beyond coping approaches (safety nets) to risk-reduction
approaches (social protection)
45

46. Challenges
❖Year-to-year price fluctuations are much larger
for non-rice crops than for rice, indicating
relatively high levels of market-induced risks for
production of non-rice crops
❖ High-value crops, especially fruits and
vegetables, have thin domestic markets owing to
relatively low levels of demand for them
❖Horticultural crops, milk, and fish also face
special problems related to perishability, which
increases the risks of marketing
❖The interplay of these factors contributes to the
low level of agricultural diversity in Bangladesh.
46

47. Policy considerations
Accelerate agricultural diversity:
❖Reduce risk of high-value, high nutritive value
food production via contract farming, agricultural
credit, etc.
❖Create an enabling policy environment for the
private sector for agricultural value chains
development
❖Invest in research on productivity of rice, non-
rice crops, livestock, and fisheries
❖Promote rice intensification and agricultural
diversification via agricultural extension
47

48. Policy considerations
Improve diet quality:
❖Develop value chains for nutrient-dense foods
❖Promote nutrition knowledge among consumers,
farmers, and women and men
➢Add nutrition BCC to social protection programs
Support women’s empowerment:
❖Women’s empowerment in agriculture improves
dietary diversity, increases agricultural diversity,
and helps households move out of poverty (IFPRI
2016). Therefore, promoting women’s
empowerment remains paramount to attain
complementary development goals.
48