Promoting Agricultural Growth, Technology Adoption, and Crop Diversity in Bangladesh - Akhter Ahmed

Promoting Agricultural Growth,
Technology Adoption, and Crop Diversity
Akhter Ahmed, Md. Latiful Haque, Aminul Islam,
Farha Sufian, and Salauddin Tauseef
Presented by: Akhter Ahmed
IFPRI Representative for Bangladesh
Eliminating Hunger and Malnutrition:
Are Sustainable Solutions in Sight?
Workshop | Dhaka | 4 October 2017
1

Created a comprehensive database
▪ IFPRI-PRSSP’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey
(BIHS): most comprehensive, nationally representative rural
household survey to date. Largest panel survey.
▪ 4 unique features of data collection:
1. plot-level agricultural production
2. individual food intakes of all HH members
3. anthropometry measurements of all HH members
4. data to measure women’s empowerment in
agriculture index (WEAI)
▪ BIHS sampling is statistically representative
✓ nationally of rural Bangladesh
✓ rural areas for each of the 7 administrative divisions
✓ USAID-supported Feed the Future Zone in southern
Bangladesh
IFPRI-PRSSP Workshop 4 October 2017 2

BIHS: Big data, big impact
▪ Downloads of 2011 BIHS dataset: 600 (2013)  20,000+ (now)
▪ Downloads of 2015 BIHS dataset: 104,248 (now)
▪ Diverse users across 6 continents

Agricultural Growth
Results from analyses using data from the
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)

Agricultural and rice production growth
rates have slowed down
5-year average agricultural growth
rates for 2 periods (%)
5-year average rice production growth
rates for 2 periods (%)
4.7
2.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
FY2007-2011 FY2012-2016
Percentperyear
4.8
0.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
FY2007-2011 FY2012-2016
Percentperyear

Recent trends in GDP, agricultural, and
rice production growth rates
Rice is the main driver of agricultural growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Growthrates(percentperyear)
GDP Agriculture Rice Production

Agricultural growth is 2 to 3 times more
poverty reducing than growth in other sectors
in Bangladesh economy
1.59
0.58
0.76
0.60
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Agriculture Industry Trade Transport
Gr0wthelasticityofpoverty
Sectors

Rice production more than tripled since
liberation, but the progress is slowing down
10,967 13,883
17,852
25,086
33,541
34,710
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1970-71
1971-72
1972-73
1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1976-77
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Riceproductionin‘000metrictons
Total rice production

Production of aus, aman and boro rice
Boro has been the driver of production, but stagnated in recent years
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1960-61
1962-63
1964-65
1966-67
1968-69
1970-71
1972-73
1974-75
1976-77
1978-79
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
Productionin‘000metrictons
Aus Aman Boro

Total rice yields in recent years are at a standstill
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Riceyield(metrictonsperhectare)
Total rice yield Poly. (Total rice yield)

What factors affect rice yields?
Using random effects Generalized Least Square (GLS)
regression and BIHS panel data, key results show that…
▪ 1% increase in real (inflation-adjusted) rice price is
associated with 1.5% increase in total rice yields.
▪ As expected, increased use of fertilizers and larger area
under irrigation promote rice yields.
▪ Increased area under boro rice on farmers’ land boosts
total rice yields, but increased area under aus and aman
rice crops tends to decrease total rice yields.
▪ Increased size of operated land is associated with
decreased rice yields. This is consistent with findings from
BIHS data that small holder farmers use relatively higher
rates of fertilizers and family labor, and hence, get higher
rice yields compared to larger famers.

National average real price of coarse rice
fell by more than 50% in past 35 years
2616
1235
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012-13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
Wholesalepriceofcoarserice(takaperquintal)
Real rice price Poly. (Real rice price)

Magnitude of rice price seasonality has reduced
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1981-1990 1991-2000 2011-2015

Technology Adoption
Results from analyses using panel data from the
Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) of
2012 and 2015

Bangladesh is the most “favored” area in South and
East Asia and the Pacific countries for agricultural
technology adoption
(Irrigated or humid/sub-humid with favorable terrain and market access)
Source: Pender, J. (2008) IFPRI.
15
76
35 34
29 27
21 19
14 14 12 11 10 9 8
2 0
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Favoredareas(%ofarea)

Agrarian structure in Bangladesh has important
implications for technology adoption
IFPRI BIHS 2015
Land tenure patterns
36 37
27
0
10
20
30
40
Pure tenant
(no land
owned)
Own land only Mixed tenant
(own
land+land
taken-in)
Percent
▪ About 1/3 of all farm
households are “pure
tenants” (do not own the
land they work). Therefore,
they have insecure,
prohibitive, and unstable
access to land through
sharecropping or land-
leasing arrangements,
which act as a deterrent for
technology adoption.

High degree of inequality in distribution of
operated land
32.8
43.8
15.6
7.88.3
37.2
27.8 26.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
Marginal (<0.5 acre) Small (0.5-1.49 acres) Medium (1.5-2.49
acres)
Large (≥2.5 acres)
Percentoffarmers
Farm size groups
Percent of farmers Percent of total opearated land
17
Source: IFPRI BIHS, 2015
IFPRI-PRSSP Workshop 4 October 2017

Variety adoption: What does it take?
▪ BRRI and BINA developed 100+ rice varieties, but adoption remains
low.
▪ Most popular varieties in Bangladesh are older (2015 BIHS):
▪ BRRI dhan 28 (1994): 44.8% of total boro land
▪ BRRI dhan 29 (1994): 25.3% of total boro land
▪ Average time to reach adoption peak: 16±3 years.
▪ 2013: HarvestPlus and BRRI developed and released first biofortified
zinc rice variety.
▪ By 2016, HarvestPlus has reached approximately 500,000 farm
households with 908 tons seed of 4 zinc rice varieties in more than
350 upazilas spreading across 62 districts.
▪ How did HarvestPlus achieve rapid adoption of its high zinc rice
variety in only 3 years?

HarvestPlus Bangladesh zinc rice promotion
strategies
Increase ZR uptake
by producers &
consumers
Public awareness on ZR
benefits
Popularize at farmer-
level
Increase availability of
ZR seed + grain
Create sustainable
value chain for ZR
Motivate private seed +
consumer product
companies towards ZR
commercialization
Increase
mainstreaming of ZR
among private seed +
grain companies
Mainstream
biofortification in
national policy
Catalyze policies on
biofortification for
nutrition + agriculture
Higher-level interaction
with policy makers,
influential development
bodies and entities
Engage GOB on
inclusion of ZR in
subsidized food
programs
IFPRI-PRSSP Workshop 4 October 2017 19Source: HarvestPlus

Key determinants of HYV t. aman adoption
Results of a probit regression model using data from the 2015
BIHS show that the probability of HYV adoption…
▪ increases if farmers complete secondary level of education
▪ increases if farmers use supplemental irrigation
▪ decreases if flood depth of plot increases
▪ decreases if farmers are pure tenant
20

Use of mechanized irrigation for boro rice
cultivation
67.0
10.5
14.4
64.8
13.2
16.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Shallow tubewell Low-lift pump Deep tubewell
Percentofbororicefarmers
2012 2015

Percentage of gross cropped area irrigated
22
15
52
66
69
85
69
60
64
11
53
67
64
83
69
54
65
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Bangladesh
Percentofgrosscroppedareairrigated
2012 2015

Trends in use of 2-wheel and 4-wheel tractors
8 8 9 10 11
14 14
16 17 17 17
57 59
62
65
67
70 71 73 73 75
79
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percentoffarmers
Four wheel Tractor Two wheel tractor (power tiller)

Two-wheel power tiller use for land preparation,
by division
24
57
28
74
80
88
84
79
72
62
48
90
72
92
81 79 78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percentoffarmers
Divisions
2012 2015

Four-wheel tractor use for land preparation, by
division
25
12
42
18
11
7
12
2
16
14
37
6
15
7
26
10
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percentoffarmers
2012 2015

Power tiller owned, by division
26
1.2
0.5
2.0
2.3
2.8
2.2
1.1
1.9
2.4
0.5
2.3
2.6
3.3
3.0
2.0
2.3
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Percentoffarmers
2012 2015

Use of mobile phone for marketing of paddy
12
2
4.4
2.2
5.7
10.3
11.7
6.1
7
10.9
7.5
12
23.2
9.9
17.5
12.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshah Rangpur Sylhet All
Percentoffarmers
Paddy 2011/12 Paddy 2015

Percentage of farmers received agricultural
extension service during last 12 months
6
14
18
25
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Marginal (>0-
<0.5)
Small (.5-1.49) Medium (1.50-
2.49)
Large(>=2.5) Total
Percentoffarmers
Farm size groups
2015

Loan from Krishi Bank by farm size groups
5.2
9.1
12.1
14.6
8.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Marginal farmer Small farmer Medium farmer Large farmer All
Percentoffarmers
2015

Crop Diversity
Results from analyses using panel data from the
Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) of
2012 and 2015

Most farmers grow one crop – Rice
31
54.4
20.1
12.5
5.9
3.9
51.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 Only rice
Percentageoffarmers
Number of crops grown in 2011
Source: IFPRI 2012 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS)

Farmers growing only one crop, by farm size
groups
66
52
37
40
54
61
48
37 35
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
Marginal farmer
(<0.5 acres)
Small farmer
(0.5-1.49 acres)
Medium farmer
(1.5-2.49 acres)
Large farmer
(≥2.5 acres)
All
Percentageoffarmers
Farm size groups
2012 BIHS 2015 BIHS

Share of land under crops: Average for all farmers
and for those who grow the crops
72.4
2.1 1.7 0.6
2.9 1.2 2.4 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
3.9
80.3
23.3
18.3 18.7
28.9
21.1
28.2 27.5
49.2
17.0
19.6
28.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Rice Wheat Potato Eggplant Other
Vegetables
Lentil Other
pulses
Mustard Sugarcane Chilli Onion Jute
Percent
Crops
Share of all land under the crops Share of land for those who grow the crops

34
76.8
1.5 0.8 2.0 2.3 1.7
3.8
0.4
73.1
2.2 2.0 2.3 3.9
1.8
3.9
0.6
0
20
40
60
80
Rice Wheat Maize Pulses Oilseeds Potatoes Vegetables Bananas
Totalcroppedarea(%)
2012 2015
Share of rice decreased and non-rice food
crops increased in total cropped area

Crop diversity increased: Simpson diversification
index, by division
0.19
0.18
0.19
0.27 0.27
0.19
0.05
0.21
0.29
0.18
0.23
0.30
0.28
0.22
0.04
0.24
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
SimpsonIndex
Axis Title
2012 2015
The Simpson diversification index is calculated as 𝑆𝐷𝐼 = 1 − σ𝑖=1
𝑛
𝑃𝑖
2
, where Pi is the
proportionate area of the ith crop in gross cropped area.

Simpson Index by farm size groups
0.17
0.22
0.27
0.22
0.210.20
0.25
0.29
0.24 0.24
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Marginal farmer
(<0.5 acres)
Small farmer
(0.5-1.49 acres)
Medium farmer
(1.5-2.49 acres)
Large farmer
(≥2.5 acres)
All
SimpsonsIndex
Farm size groups
2012 BIHS 2015 BIHS

Gross margin of selected crops per hectare
12 14 12
22
47
30
66
42
34
43
94
198
32
16 16
36
54
29
55 56
39
26
112
168
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
‘000Takaperhectare
2011/12 2015

Gross and net value of all crops, by farm size
groups
102,914
86,444
83,003
76,583
58,434
44,272 42,627
37,843
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Marginal farmer
(<0.5 acres)
Small farmer
(0.5-1.49 acres)
Medium farmer
(1.5-2.49 acres)
Large farmer
(≥2.5 acres)
Taka/hectare
Farm size groups
Gross Value Net Value

What factors affect farmers’ income?
Using random effects panel regression and IFPRI BIHS data, results
show that farmers’ income tends to increase if:
▪ HH male head and female spouse have at least secondary school
education
▪ HH male head and female spouse have access to commercial loans
▪ Women are more empowered (measured by WEAI)
▪ Non-farm income share increases
▪ Have access to electricity (solar panel or national grid) and own cell
phone
▪ Domestic and international remittances increase
Farmers’ income tends to decrease when:
❖ Share of cropped land under rice cultivation increases

Challenges
▪ Year-to-year price fluctuations are much larger for non-
rice crops than for rice, indicating relatively high levels of
market-induced risks for production of non-rice crops
▪ High-value crops, especially fruits and vegetables, have
thin domestic markets owing to relatively low levels of
demand for them
▪ Horticultural crops, milk, and fish also face special
problems related to perishability, which increases the
risks of marketing
▪ The interplay of these factors contributes to the low level
of agricultural diversity in Bangladesh.
40

Policy considerations
41
❖Accelerate agricultural growth:
▪ Agricultural growth is key to poverty reduction. Recent slowdown of
agricultural growth needs attention.
▪ Agricultural growth has declined mainly due to decreased growth in
rice production.
▪ Rice cultivation should be intensified. Investment in agricultural
research must be increased to promote rice productivity.
▪ Since there is very little fallow land now available, future production
increases in Bangladesh will have to come from higher yields.
▪ This will mean developing new technologies and innovations
through research to address production problems in flood, drought,
and salinity-induced stress conditions.
▪ Food and agricultural technologies must be disseminated to farmers
through effective extension systems.
▪ Rapid growth within agriculture demands effective and specialized
agricultural finance systems.

❖Promote technology adoption in agriculture:
▪ About 1/3 of all farm households are “pure tenants.” These
farmers must pay rent for the land they cultivate, which act
as a deterrent for technology adoption. Policies should take
into account the implications of this important constraint.
▪ Real agricultural wages have increased sharply in the recent
past. In June 2005, agricultural laborers could buy 5.3 kg of
rice from a day’s wage. Rice wage increased to 12.8 kg of rice
in June 2016.
▪ Rural agricultural labor is no longer abundant, so policies
should focus on ways to improve productivity in the wake of
rising labor costs.
▪ Mechanization and accelerating the adoption of modern
agricultural technologies for improving crop yields may ease
farmers’ burden.
42IFPRI-PRSSP Workshop 4 October 2017

▪ Promote agricultural diversity:
▪ Reduce risk of high-value, high nutritive value food
production via contract farming, agricultural credit, etc.
▪ Create an enabling policy environment for the private
sector for agricultural value chains development
▪ Invest in research on productivity of rice, non-rice crops,
livestock, and fisheries
▪ Promote rice intensification and agricultural
diversification via agricultural extension.

▪ Improve small farmers’ access to credit and extension
services:
▪ Smallholder farmers dominate the agricultural sector in
Bangladesh.
▪ Providing them with adequate access to institutional
credit and effective agricultural extension services is
critical for raising income and enhancing agricultural
development in Bangladesh.
▪ However, the outreach of these services to smallholder
farmers is very low in absolute terms and considerably
less than the services provided to larger farmers.
▪ Complex procedures of public agricultural credit system
need to be addressed.

▪ Promote rural non-farm employment:
▪ An increased share of non-farm income out of total
income tend to increase farmers’ income.
▪ Promote agriculture-driven, non-farm activities (e.g.,
vocational training in repairs and servicing of ag
machineries, particularly for rural youth).
▪ Gainfully employ rural youth in agricultural value chains
(e.g., packaging, transport).
▪ In Bangladesh, the capacity to absorb the growing rural
labor force in agriculture is very limited, because of no
scope for expansion of the land, and the growth of crop
production now depends almost entirely on technological
progress, resulting in low employment response of
increased output. Therefore, a shift of rural labor force
out of agriculture, accompanied by faster agricultural
growth, is key to boosting rural incomes.

Thank you

Promoting Agricultural Growth, Technology Adoption, and Crop Diversity in Bangladesh - Akhter Ahmed

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to Promoting Agricultural Growth, Technology Adoption, and Crop Diversity in Bangladesh - Akhter Ahmed

Similar to Promoting Agricultural Growth, Technology Adoption, and Crop Diversity in Bangladesh - Akhter Ahmed (20)

More from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

More from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Promoting Agricultural Growth, Technology Adoption, and Crop Diversity in Bangladesh - Akhter Ahmed