presented at: “Addressing the Needs of Internally Displaced Persons in Pakistan” IFPRI Seminar Washington, D.C. September 11, 2014

1. LESSONS FROM REHABILITATION OF DISPLACED PERSONS
Dr. Anis A. Dani
September 11, 2014

2. PAKISTAN’S IDP CHALLENGE
Pakistan has the unique distinction of having faced three IDP challenges:
IDPs that from international conflict (Afghan refugees)
IDPs from internal conflict (Swat, Waziristan)
IDPs from natural disasters (2005 earthquake, floods since 2010, drought in Tharparker)
While these may seem very different, the challenges of rehabilitation and recovery are quite similar
*Please note: numbers reported here are not official -these are put together from the internet and should be taken as indicative.

3. THE SCALE OF THE PROBLEM: CONFLICT-INDUCED DISPLACEMENT
A.Afghan refugees peaked at about 4.5 million prior to 2011;
Official refugees dropped to under 1 million but an unclear number assimilated into local economies.
B.Numbers of persons displaced by internal conflicts are imprecise, but to give an order of magnitude:
In 2010, KPK had an estimated 980,000 IDPs, of which half had been displaced during the year (estimates for FATA and other provinces were not available)
Almost 2 million IDPs (displaced from Swat) returned to KPK between mid-2009 and mid-2010. While some were able to return home, destruction of infrastructure and land disputes prevented others from returning
Winners and Losers: Poorer IDPs could not afford to remain displaced and returned back in 2010, while those who were better-off bought land in KPK and sought to integrate there
At least 60,000 households (some 400,000 people) have been displaced from Waziristan
Another 40,000 people are reportedly displaced within Balochistan
The combined number of conflict-induced refugees is thus of the order of 1.5 million

4. RECURRING FLOOD-INDUCED DISPLACEMENT
2010 floods had the largest impact
2,000+ fatalities, 18 million affected; 11 million homeless; 1.2 million livestock killed
Damage needs assessed at $9.6 billion
unclear how many who sheltered in the cities like Karachi, returned home or stayed on.
2011 floods -woefully unprepared, despite 2010 experience
5.4 million affected in Sind, Balochistan and parts of Punjab; 450,000 families moved into emergency shelters; more than 3 million provided food aid
2012 monsoon floods affected 4.8 million people
In March 2013, standing water in Sind still prevented some people from returning home
2014 floods caused by severe rainfall (13+ inches) in upper watershed leading to about 450 fatalities in India and Pakistan
254 fatalities reported already in Pakistan; 1.5 million people affected.
200 villages flooded and 700,000 displaced by the deliberate breaching of a dyke to protect Trimmu headworks, upstream from Multan

5. LESSONS FROM WBG PROGRAMS ON DISASTER RECOVERY
Clarify responsibility and accountability to avoid unnecessary delays during recovery and reconstruction
Assess damages realistically and quickly after a disaster
Plan, design and implement post-disaster recovery and reconstruction programs rapidly drawing on lessons from other countries
Setting up plans for recovery before disaster strikes helps communities bounce back faster, and can protect development gains
Use opportunity to reduce identified vulnerabilities to build resilience
Over 400,000 houses rebuilt after 2005 earthquake, of which 90% are reported to be in compliance with new seismic codes
But recurring flood-induced displacement has not been systemically addressed yet.
Households and individuals more vulnerable also lack safety nets of savings or property, and are at risk of falling deeper into poverty

6. LESSONS FROM WBG PROGRAM ON FORCED DISPLACEMENT
Forced displacement: defined as the situation of persons who are forced to flee their homes due to conflict, violence, persecution and human rights violations.
Lessons on how to plan and implement lasting recovery for people displaced by conflict and violence are relevant to other forms of induced displacement, including those caused by internal conflicts (Swat, Balochistan, Waziristan), natural disasters, or climate change.
Key challenges:
1.land, housing and property
2.re-establishment of livelihoods (or reintegration into economies within host communities)
3.delivery of services
4.accountable and responsive governance; critical to ensure that support for recovery is viewed as legitimate both by displaced persons and by host communities (may even require promotion of reconciliation and coexistence)

7. LESSONS FROM INVOLUNTARY RESETTLEMENT
While the scale of involuntary resettlement in Pakistan has been small compared to displacement induced by conflict or natural disasters, there are lessons to be learnt. Success depends on:
Measuring the magnitude and nature of the problem to designing an effective Resettlement Action Plan
Clear institutional responsibility, staff capacity, and realistic budgets
Close consultation with Project Affected Persons
Effective service delivery of compensation and support for reconstruction, restoration of livelihoods and social services
Efficient grievance redress mechanisms
Close engagement with host communities

8. STOCKTAKING
Displacement due to conflict or natural disasters (climate change) is a recurring and long-lasting phenomenon.
Pakistan’s needs more thorough understanding and political will to address this systematically
Needs institutions to anticipate, prepare and build resilience to cope
Provincial and local governments need a rapid response mechanism
Recognition that, if not addressed adequately, this will induce more rapid urbanization and place a heavy burden on the most vulnerable.