Presented at: “Addressing the Needs of Internally Displaced Persons in Pakistan” IFPRI Seminar Washington, D.C. September 11, 2014

1. 1
Floods and Natural Disasters in South Asia: Implications for Food Security
Paul Dorosh
International Food Policy Research Institute
“Addressing the Needs of Internally Displaced Persons in Pakistan”
IFPRI Seminar
Washington, D.C.
September 11, 2014

2. Plan of Presentation
•South Asia Floods
•The 2014 Pakistan Flood
•Extent of Flooding
•Wheat Production, Stocks and Prices
•Lessons from Other South Asia Experience
•The 1998 Bangladesh Flood
•Livelihood Support Programs and Welfare Transfers
•Recent Research Findings
•Long-term Effects of Floods on Internal Migration
•Other Research on Environmental Shocks in Pakistan
•Concluding Observations

3. Pakistan and South Asia Floods, 1985-2014Number of Displaced People
3
Source:Dartmouth Flood Observatory (2014).(data accessed September 9, 2014)
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/Archives/index.html
01020304050607080198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013 Thousands of displaced people PakistanOther South Asia

4. Pakistan and South Asia Floods, 1985-2014Area Affected
4
Source:Dartmouth Flood Observatory (2014). (data accessed September 9, 2014)
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/Archives/index.html
05001000150020002500300035004000 Area in thousand square km PakistanSouth Asia

5. The 2014 Pakistan Flood

6. 2010

7. The 2014 Pakistan Flood: Villages Affected
Source: http://floodrelief.punjab.gov.pk/. Accessed September 10, 2014.

8. IFPRI RHPS Survey Sites

9. Pakistan: Nominal Wholesale, Import Parity
and Support Prices of Wheat
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Price(Rs/kg)
Lahore Wholesale Price Import Parity(Lahore) Procurement Price
Note: 2014 Wholesale prices are for Peshawar.

10. Pakistan: Initial and Estimated Peak Wheat Stocks* 1991-92 to 2014
* Peak wheat stocks are estimated as end-April stocks plus May-June domestic procurement.
024681012 1991-921993-941995-961997-981999-002001-022003-042005-062007-082009-102011-122013-14(million tons) Initial StocksIntial Stocks + Domestic Procurement

11. The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh
•From early July to the end of September 1998, floods covered much of Bangladesh
•At their peak on 7 September, 1998, 51 percent of the country was under water.
•The floods caused 2.04 million tons of losses to rice production , equal to 17.9 percent of target national rice production for the first half of 1998/99.
•Yet, no reported deaths from starvation occurred after the flood and food markets were stable.

12. Bangladesh 1998: Private Sector Imports
•As part of its price stabilization strategy, the government of Bangladesh encouraged private sector imports through the elimination of a 2.5 percent import tax on rice and other measures.
•In response to market incentives, hundreds of private sector traders imported an estimated 2.42 million tons of rice from July 1998 to April 1999 (according to official data).
•Government net distribution in this period was 1.58 million tons, only 0.19 million tons more than originally planned.

13. Bangladesh 1998 Floods Household Borrowing
•In order to cope with the loss of incomes from the floods, most poor and flood-exposed households borrowed heavily from private sector sources.
•Even fifteen months after the flood, household debts still averaged about 1.5 month’s average consumption for the 64.2% of flood-exposed households in the bottom 40% of the expenditure distribution who were in debt.
•To eliminate borrowing following the flood would have required a transfer of approximately $100 for each household.
•At the national level, total private borrowing by households may have reached $1.0 to $1.5 billion, equivalent to nearly one- fourth of total government expenditures in 1998–99, and about double of the combined annual loan disbursements of GrameenBank and BRAC at that time.

14. Bangladesh 1998 Floods Household Coping Mechanisms
•Private borrowing was the dominant coping mechanism for flood-exposed households
•Public and NGO interventions, though well targeted, were too small to have a major impact on household food security
•Poor households bore the weight of substantially increased debt more than a year after the floods
•Given the sharp increase in debt for the poor, there was a need for additional efforts in providing rural employment, transfers and credit to poor households following the flood

15. SOUTH ASIA –LESSONS Incorporating Livelihood Strategies in Relief and Rehabilitation
•Social protection has to be prioritized in a disaster response so the most vulnerable groups are protected.
–Awareness-raising is an important component to ensure participation.
•Encourage active participation of key stakeholders from a multi-sector base as well as the community, in the decisions made for each program.
–Activities, where possible, should be linked with government, local enterprises, organizations and industries.
•Interventions need to be tailored to target specific needs of different groups
•Enhance livelihood opportunities for people through provision of temporary work schemes
–debris clearance, construction, public awareness, project management, assessments, etc.

16. SOUTH ASIA –LESSONS Incorporating Livelihood Strategies in Relief and Rehabilitation
•Partnering with NGOs
–in sustainable livelihood support (provision of seeds and tools, animals, capacity building).NGOs can play a big part in relief initiatives and micro- crediting.
•Developing forums and focus groups for particular industries
–to pool resources, share equipment and experiences, and support each other as well as plan for the future.Setting up a community funding scheme can help people restart businesses.
•Availing of loans
–from the government or private sector and utilizing government grants can fill consumption shortfalls.
•Enhancing skills through training
–to supply more construction sector artisans (masons, carpenters, electricians etc) and training them in hazard-resistant construction technology can upgrade the future workforce.
•Compensation should be paid to people without delay to enable them to rebuild their lives.

17. 17
Heat Stress Increases Long-term Human Migration in Rural Pakistan
Mueller, Valerie; Gray, Clark; and Kosec, Katrina. 2014. Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature Climate Change4: 182-185.

18. Migration and Income Data
•Pakistan Rural Household Panel Survey (1986- 1991) collected by IFPRI
–Punjab, Sindh, and NWFP
–726 households from 41 villages
–Pre-migration individual and household information taken from 1991 for migration regressions
–Panel used to estimate weather effects on income
•2001 (PIDE) and 2012 (IFPRI) Tracking Surveys for 1991 PRHS
–Create person-year dataset over 21-year period
18

19. Migration and Climate Trends
19
7.6 %

20. Floods, Exposure, Migration Patterns
20
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10986220Source: Mueller, Gray, and Kosec(2013)

21. Summary of Findings
1.Controlling for other factors, temperature extremes (but NOT FLOODING) have a statistically significant effect on the long- term migration of men in Pakistan.
-Extreme high-temperature scenario predicts a 12 percent increase in male migration
2.Annual agricultural and non-farm income affected by temperature
3.Asset and land poor are more likely to move which is consistent with low financial barriers to move and effects on non-farm income
21

22. Droughts, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options for Water and Food In Pakistan
Tingju Zhu, Hua Xie, Claudia Ringler, M. Mohsin Iqbal, Timothy Sulser, M. Arif Goheer
International Food Policy Research Institute & GCISC

23. CC Conclusions
•Hydrological impacts of climate change vary widely across scenario for the Indus River basin; considerable uncertainties exist in current climate model projections
•The impacts on crop yields of key staples are always negative, primarily due to higher temperatures under CC
•A combination of very high improvement in agricultural R&D and improved irrigation efficiency can achieve the best outcomes for Pakistan under climate change
•Increasing reservoir storage alone will unlikely improve crop productivity and production; however storage is important to address intra-and inter-annual water variability

24. References
del Ninno, Carlo, Paul A. Dorosh, Lisa C. Smith and DilipRoy. 2001. The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh: Disaster Impacts, Household Coping Strategies and Response.International Food Policy Research Institute Research Report No. 122. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/1998-floods-bangladesh
del Ninno, Carlo, Paul A. Dorosh and Lisa C. Smith. 2003. “Public Policy, Markets and Household Coping Strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a Food Security Crisis Following the 1998 Floods”. World Development. 31(7):1221-1238.
Dorosh, Paul, Sohail Malik and MarikaKrausova. 2011. “Rehabilitating agriculture and promoting food security following the 2010 Pakistan floods”, Pakistan Development Review49(3): 167-192.
Mueller, Valerie; Gray, Clark; and Kosec, Katrina. 2014. Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature Climate Change4: 182-185.
World Bank Independent Evaluation Group. 2010. Response to Pakistan’s Floods: Evaluative Lessons and Opportunity.
Zhu, T., C. Ringler, M. Iqbal, T.B. Sulser, and M.A. Goheer. 2013. Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model. Water International 38(5): 651-669.