"Lessons and policy options for emergency preparedness in flood prone areas of Asia” presented by Sohail Malik and Paul Dorosh, IFPRI, at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.

1. Promoting Food Security following the
2010 Pakistan Floods and
Insights from South Asian Experience
Paul Dorosh
International Food Policy Research Institute
Sohail J. Malik
Innovative Development Strategies, Ltd.
IFPRI USAID Seminar
Kathmandu, Nepal
November , 2011
1

2. Plan of Presentation
• The 2010 Pakistan Floods: Overview
• Lessons from South Asia Experience
• Market and Trade Policies
• Livelihood Support Programs and Welfare Transfers
• Pakistan National Disaster Management Authorities
• Pakistan’s Flood Response
• Wheat Markets and Policies
• Public Institutions and Programs
• Program Implementation through April 2011
• The 2011 Pakistan Floods
• Concluding Observations

3. The 2010 Pakistan Floods
Overview

5. Impact of the Floods
(UN Estimates)
• More than 18 million people affected (1/10th of total
population)
• 1,980 deaths confirmed
• 50,000 square kilometres (km) in 78 out of a total of 141
districts
• 2.2 million hectares of standing crops destroyed
• 0.5 million livestock lost
• 1.7 million homes and 10,000 schools damaged or
destroyed

6. Lessons from South Asia Experience

7. Page 7
The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh

8. The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh
• From early July to the end of September 1998, floods
covered much of Bangladesh
• At their peak on 7 September, 1998, 51 percent of the
country was under water.
• The floods caused 2.04 million tons of losses to rice
production , equal to 17.9 percent of target national
rice production for the first half of 1998/99.
• Yet, no reported deaths from starvation occurred
after the flood and food markets were stable.

9. Bangladesh 1998: Private Sector Imports
• As part of its price stabilization strategy, the
government of Bangladesh encouraged private
sector imports through the elimination of a 2.5
percent import tax on rice and other measures.
• In response to market incentives, hundreds of
private sector traders imported an estimated 2.42
million tons of rice from July 1998 to April 1999
(according to official data).
• Government net distribution in this period was
1.58 million tons, only 0.19 million tons more than
originally planned.

10. Bangladesh Floods: Household Borrowing
• In order to cope with the loss of incomes from the floods, most
poor and flood-exposed households borrowed heavily from
private sector sources.
• Even fifteen months after the flood, household debts still
averaged about 1.5 month’s average consumption for the 64.2%
of flood-exposed households in the bottom 40% of the
expenditure distribution who were in debt.
• To eliminate borrowing following the flood would have required
a transfer of approximately $100 for each household.
• At the national level, total private borrowing by households
may have reached $1.0 to $1.5 billion, equivalent to nearly one-
fourth of total government expenditures in 1998–99, and about
double of the combined annual loan disbursements of Grameen
Bank and BRAC at that time.

11. South Asia Disaster Recovery Lessons:
Incorporating Livelihood Strategies
• Social protection has to be prioritized in a disaster response
so the most vulnerable groups are protected.
– Awareness-raising is an important component to ensure
participation.
• Encourage active participation of key stakeholders from a
multi-sector base as well as the community, in the decisions
made for each program.
– Activities, where possible, should be linked with government, local
enterprises, organizations and industries.
• Interventions need to be tailored to target specific needs of
different groups
• Enhance livelihood opportunities for people through
provision of temporary work schemes
– debris clearance, construction, public awareness, project
management, assessments, etc.

12. Pakistan: Lessons from 2005 Earthquake Recovery
• All phases of the disaster response should be handled by
the same institution
• All stakeholders should be included in the disaster
response mechanism.
• Need to account for long-term, medium-term and short-
term goals in the post-disaster responses and connect
them together in one framework.
• Ensure participation of two key stakeholders: the
government and the affected communities.

13. Pakistan’s Policy Response
to the 2010 Floods

14. Post-flood Wheat Policy
• The August 2010 flood had no immediate effects on wheat
production, since wheat is grown from October to April.
• Pakistan’s national wheat stocks were at record high levels at
the time of the flood
• Very high procurement in previous two years due to high domestic
procurement and prices well above market prices
• As much as 1 million tons of wheat stocks may have been lost in the
flood
• Nonetheless, wheat stocks were still about 10 million tons, compared
to typical stock levels of about 5-6 million tons
• The recent rise in world wheat prices made private imports
unprofitable
• Domestic wheat prices remained stable, given the recent
good harvest and abundant private and public stocks

15. Pakistan: Initial and Estimated Peak Wheat Stocks*
1991-92 to 2010-11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1991-92
1993-94
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
(milliontons)
Initial Stocks Intial Stocks + Domestic Procurement
* Peak wheat stocks are estimated as end-April stocks plus May-June domestic procurement.

16. Flood Relief Plan
• The Pakistan Initial Floods Emergency Response Plan,
launched on 11 August 2010, sought US$ 459 million to
respond to the immediate relief needs of flood affected
people
• The Pakistan Floods Relief and Early Recovery Response
Plan, launched in November 2010 ($1.93 billion)
– A revision of the Initial Plan, took into account fresh needs
assessments and an extended planning and budgeting horizon
– Designed to support the Government of Pakistan in addressing
the residual relief needs for 6 months and early recovery needs
of flood-affected families for 12 months up to August 2011

17. Post-Flood Recovery through January 2011
• 1.46 million flood-affected households had been processed by
the National Database and Registration Authority.
• Almost 900,000 households provided with emergency shelter.
• About 6 million people received food assistance in monthly
rations (5 million starting in January),
– over 385,000 metric tons of food was distributed
• 9.3 million people had essential medication needs covered
• Safe water provided to 4.7 million people through rehabilitated
water systems

18. Beneficiaries of a one-room shelter in
Jacobabad Sindh

19. Women beneficiaries preparing animal feed provided by FAO in
the flood-affected district of Shahdad Kot in Sindh

20. Citizen’s Damage Compensation Programme
• The Government of Pakistan initiated the Citizen’s
Damage Compensation Programme (CDCP) in all
provinces
– This program aims to give an initial payment of Rs 20,000
(approx. USD 233) to 1.5 million affected families
– The Programme was financed jointly by the federal and
provincial governments
• The enrolled families received a debit card (Watan Card)
activated within 48 hours after NADRA completed
identity checks of these beneficiaries
• Recipients of cards obtained cash from designated payment
centres where ATM/POS machines were installed

21. Second Phase of CDCP
• The Government of Pakistan plans to extend the
program through a second phase during which
further instalments of Rs 40,000 would be made to
flood victims
• The second phase will use housing damage as a
proxy indictor for determination of households’
being affected by the floods
• The second phase of the CDCP is to be financed by
the Federal Government and the development
partners.

22. Seven months after the floods
(April 2011)
• There are still areas covered with stagnant water in Sindh
province, awaiting evaporation when the temperatures
rise in the spring and summer
• 84 thousand people (3 percent of the original total) are
still living in camps.
• 75 per cent of these camp dwellers are in Sindh.
• In many cases, people continue to depend on emergency
shelter after having returned to their areas of origin

23. April 2011:

24. Comparison: Pakistan Floods 2010 and 2011

25. The 2011 Floods Primarily Affected One Province

27. The CDCP Second Phase Validation Ongoing
• Initial Impressions are that:
• Significant Discrepancies in Reported Damage Lists
Overall
• With very high (percentage) Discrepancies in Some
Districts and None in Others

28. Summary and Conclusions
• Promoting competitive private trade can be an
effective way to stabilize food supply and prices
(e.g. Bangladesh 1998)
– This private sector trade can occur simultaneously with
government transfer programs from government stocks
provided that government policy promotes private sector trade
and is consistent and transparent
• Provision of rural credit or transfers may be
needed to avoid declines in food consumption or
accumulation of household debt
– Major transfers through the household asset replacement
programs were implemented in Pakistan

29. Summary and Conclusions (2)
• Major delays in funding and implementation have
plagued the response to the Pakistan 2010 floods
– Weak and Unstable Economic and Political Conditions
– Low level of International Humanitarian Response
– Lack of Coordinated Effort
– Governance Issues, including disconnects between federal
and regional governments, etc.
• A detailed evaluation of targeting and other
aspects of program effectiveness is now planned

30. References
Dorosh, Paul A., Sohail J. Malik and Marika Krausova. 2010. “Promoting Food
Security following the 2010 Pakistan Floods: Insights from South Asian
Experience ”, IFPRI Discussion Paper.
________ . 2011. “Rehabilitating agriculture and promoting food security
following the 2010 Pakistan floods”, Pakistan Development Review.
del Ninno, Carlo, Paul A. Dorosh, Lisa C. Smith and Dilip Roy. 2001. The 1998
Floods in Bangladesh: Disaster Impacts, Household Coping Strategies and
Response. International Food Policy Research Institute Research Report
No. 122. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/1998-
floods-bangladesh
del Ninno, Carlo, Paul A. Dorosh and Lisa C. Smith. 2003. “Public Policy,
Markets and Household Coping Strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a Food
Security Crisis Following the 1998 Floods”. World Development.
31(7):1221-1238.
World Bank Independent Evaluation Group. 2010. Response to Pakistan’s
Floods: Evaluative Lessons and Opportunity.
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTDIRGEN/Resources/ieg_pakistan_
note.pdf