This document discusses forecasting, including its introduction, characteristics, principles, need, process, areas of application, advantages, and disadvantages. It provides examples of forecasting in supply chain management, economics, earthquakes, buildings, land use, sports, politics, transportation, telecommunications, products, sales, and technology. The document also presents a case study of Henkel, a manufacturing company that improved sales forecasting accuracy from 69.3% to 85.3% by implementing social forecasting with incentives for top forecasters.
Interventions required to meet business objectives from Forecasting Methods,
Quantitative & Qualitative Methods,
Forecast Accuracy , Error Reduction to
CPFR
Interventions required to meet business objectives from Forecasting Methods,
Quantitative & Qualitative Methods,
Forecast Accuracy , Error Reduction to
CPFR
This powerpoint presentation was done as part of the course STAT 591 titled Mater's Seminar during Third semester of MSc. Agricultural Statistics at Agricultural College, Bapatla under ANGRAU, Andhra Pradesh.
Operations Research: Significance and limitations Sanjeet Yadav
Operational Research supposed to be a vital aspect to determine the viability of any business concern. However, this field of study does have some inherent strengths and weaknesses. These two aspects have been discussed in the presentation in the form of significance and limitations.
A small presentation of Demand Forecasting. It covers the Qualitative and Quantitative aspects of Demand Forecasting in Operations Management.
Related Document File: https://www.scribd.com/doc/311049068/Demand-Forecasting
Methods of Forecasting for Capacity ManagementPrecisely
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events in the future. Events related to capacity management are typically things like the state of resource consumption, service levels, and computing environment changes at future points in time. Making statements or predictions about these future events requires analysis of information to determine a future state. Knowing what information is needed to make accurate forecasts is a critical step for any analysis.
Forecasts are made to answer questions. Understanding the questions, and things that affect answers to those questions, is the first step to creating an accurate forecast. Required accuracy of a forecast should determine which methods are used to create it. Assumptions can be made to limit the amount of data and time required for creating forecasts. Validating forecast accuracy, after events happen, is an important part of continually improving future forecasts, and building credibility. This webinar describes the important task of forecasting as it relates to capacity management.
This presentation covers the following topics:
• Why do we forecast?
• Forecasting scenarios
• Forecasting Techniques
• Forecasting and Virtualization
• Summary
This powerpoint presentation was done as part of the course STAT 591 titled Mater's Seminar during Third semester of MSc. Agricultural Statistics at Agricultural College, Bapatla under ANGRAU, Andhra Pradesh.
Operations Research: Significance and limitations Sanjeet Yadav
Operational Research supposed to be a vital aspect to determine the viability of any business concern. However, this field of study does have some inherent strengths and weaknesses. These two aspects have been discussed in the presentation in the form of significance and limitations.
A small presentation of Demand Forecasting. It covers the Qualitative and Quantitative aspects of Demand Forecasting in Operations Management.
Related Document File: https://www.scribd.com/doc/311049068/Demand-Forecasting
Methods of Forecasting for Capacity ManagementPrecisely
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events in the future. Events related to capacity management are typically things like the state of resource consumption, service levels, and computing environment changes at future points in time. Making statements or predictions about these future events requires analysis of information to determine a future state. Knowing what information is needed to make accurate forecasts is a critical step for any analysis.
Forecasts are made to answer questions. Understanding the questions, and things that affect answers to those questions, is the first step to creating an accurate forecast. Required accuracy of a forecast should determine which methods are used to create it. Assumptions can be made to limit the amount of data and time required for creating forecasts. Validating forecast accuracy, after events happen, is an important part of continually improving future forecasts, and building credibility. This webinar describes the important task of forecasting as it relates to capacity management.
This presentation covers the following topics:
• Why do we forecast?
• Forecasting scenarios
• Forecasting Techniques
• Forecasting and Virtualization
• Summary
Demand Planning Leadership Exchange: Demand Sensing - Are You Ready? Plan4Demand
866-P4D-INFO | info@plan4demand.com | www.plan4demand.com
Gary Griffith and Joel Argo combine over 25 years of statistical forecasting experience to discuss the capabilities of Demand Sensing, what it is and what it isn’t, how this near-term forecasting method integrates with your mid to long term forecasts, and tips to shift pragmatically towards a demand-driven culture in your organization.
This session will cover key things to consider when approaching the concept of Demand Sensing in your organization, when and who should use it, and how it fits within different business scenarios.
Key take-a-ways include:
• Understanding of key concepts, capabilities & business benefits
• Overview of Demand Sensing technology considerations & system integration points
• Typical data requirements & modeling techniques
• How this next generation technique may be a fit for your organization
Is your organization ready to reap the benefits of Demand Sensing?
Presentation given by Richard Corderoy from the Oakland Group on 29 July 2020.
Link to the news story:
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/cutting-through-the-hype-how-to-use-advanced-analytics-to-do-practical-things-today-webinar/
Link to YouTube recording: https://youtu.be/OIsvCrFR5Uw
Data science in demand planning - when the machine is not enoughTristan Wiggill
A presentation by Calven van der Byl BCom Economics and Statistics, BCom Honours Mathematical Statistics, Masters Mathematical Statistics, Inventory Optimization Demand Planning Manager, DSV, South Africa.
Delivered during SAPICS 2016, a leading event for supply chain professionals, held in Sun City, South Africa.
Demand Planning is a complex, yet often de-emphasized function in the supply chain planning function. The demand planning function is often characterized by an over-reliance on off the shelf software as well as a great deal of manual intervention. This presentation will outline the current developments and perspective in big data analytics and how they can be leveraged with the demand planning function to improve forecasting agility and efficiency. A simulation study will be presented in order to illustrate these principles in practice.
What is Forecasting?
Forecasting is a technique of predicting the future based on the results of previous data. It involves a
detailed analysis of past and present trends or events to predict future events. It uses statistical tools and
techniques. Therefore, it is also called Statistical analysis. In other words, we can say that forecasting acts
as a planning tool that helps enterprises to get ready for the uncertainty that can occur in the future.
Forecasting begins with management's experience and knowledge sharing. To obtain the most numerous
advantages from forecasts, organizations must know the different forecasting methods' more subtle
details. Also, understand what an appropriate forecasting method type can and cannot do, and realize
what forecast type is best suited to a specific need. Let's list down some significant benefits of forecasting:
• Better utilization of resources
• Formulating business plans
• Enhance the quality of management
• Helps in establishing a new business model
• Helps in making the best managerial decisions
A set of observations taken at a particular period of time. For example, having a set of login details at
regular interval of time of each user can be categorized as a time series. Click to explore about, Anomaly
Detection with Time Series Forecasting
What is Prediction?
Prediction is using the data to compute the Outcome of the unseen data.
How does Prediction work?
Firstly, the daily data is fetched from the market once at a time in a day and update it into the database.
Now, the prediction cycle along with learning developed with the use of newly combined data. Historical
data collected and the learning and prediction cycle developed to generate the results. The prediction
results obtained in the form of the various set of periods such as two days, four days, 14 days and so on.
Difference between Prediction and Forecasting
Prediction is the process of estimating the outcomes of unseen data. Forecasting is a sub-discipline of
prediction in which we use time-series data to make forecasts about the future. As a result, the only
distinction between prediction and forecasting is that we consider the temporal dimension. Confusing?
So do we forecast the weather or predict the weather? Consider this, What are the chances that it will
continue to rain in five minutes if it is already raining? Since it is raining right now, regardless of any other
factors that affect the weather (such as air pressure and temperature), the chances of it raining again in
five minutes are high. Right?vThe temporal dimension is whether it is raining right now or not? Without
that forecasting the next 5 mins wouldn't make much sense.
Time-Series refers to data recording at regular intervals of time. Click to explore about, Time Series
Forecasting Analysis
Why Forecasting is important?
Prediction of labor, material and other resources are highly crucial for operating. If the services are
Predicting better, then balanced
APM event hosted by the South Wales and West of England Branch on 29 March 2023.
Speakers: Alex Constantine and Lloyd Skinner
Artificial intelligence (AI) is starting to transform industries. It can detect cancer, draw paintings, write poems and sieve through masses of data in an instance. It is no surprise, that we wonder how AI may change the project profession.
In this talk, we took a tour of understanding what an AI is and how it works. From there, we looked at which skills we will need in a future with AI and how project teams may change in organisations where project professionals work side by side with an AI.
This event covered:
An introduction to AI
Opportunities for the profession
How AI will affect the competencies we need
How we will experience the change of AI coming in
A live AI case study of AI being deployed into a project environment today
Lastly, in this talk we introduced you to the greyfly.ai flagship tool, Intelligent Project Prediction, which uses AI to provide executive intelligence to increase project success and gave a practical example of AI being used in PPM today.
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/the-impact-of-ai-on-project-professionals-introducing-a-future-with-ai-at-your-side/
Best Practices for Implementing Self-Service AnalyticsMattSaxton5
Self-service analytics is generally recognized as a valuable asset within corporate strategies, and it’s easy to see why: it provides process experts with the user-friendly tools they need to tackle their day-to-day challenges. It allows problems to be resolved faster and frees up central analytics groups to focus on other pressing issues.
In this ebook, we will share five key learnings from some of our most successful customers in order to help you drive your self-service analytics journey towards success.
Learn more about advanced industrial analytics at www.trendminer.com
Demand Forecasting, undeniably, is the single most
important component of any organizations Supply Chain. It
determines the estimated demand for the future and sets the level
of preparedness that is required on the supply side to match the
demand. It goes without saying that if an organization doesnt get
its forecasting accurate to a reasonable level, the whole supply
chain gets affected. Understandably, Over/Under forecasting has
deteriorating impact on any organizations Supply Chain and
thereby on P and L. Having ascertained the importance of De-
mand Forecasting, it is only fair to discuss about the forecasting
techniques which are used to predict the future values of demand.
The input that goes in and the modeling engine which it goes
through are equally important in generating the correct forecasts
and determining the Forecast Accuracy. Here, we present a very
unique model that not only pre-processes the input data, but
also ensembles the output of two parallel advanced forecasting
engines which uses state-of-the-art Machine Learning algorithms
and Time-Series algorithms to generate future forecasts. Our
technique uses data-driven statistical techniques to clean the data
of any potential errors or outliers and impute missing values if
any. Once the forecast is generated, it is post processed with
Seasonality and Trend corrections, if required.Since the final
forecast is the result of statistically pre-validated ensemble of
multiple models, the forecasts are stable and accuracy variation
is very minimal across periods and forecast horizons. Hence it
is better at estimating the future demand than the conventional
techniques.
Similar to Forecasting :- Introduction & its Applications (20)
Hybrid optimization of pumped hydro system and solar- Engr. Abdul-Azeez.pdffxintegritypublishin
Advancements in technology unveil a myriad of electrical and electronic breakthroughs geared towards efficiently harnessing limited resources to meet human energy demands. The optimization of hybrid solar PV panels and pumped hydro energy supply systems plays a pivotal role in utilizing natural resources effectively. This initiative not only benefits humanity but also fosters environmental sustainability. The study investigated the design optimization of these hybrid systems, focusing on understanding solar radiation patterns, identifying geographical influences on solar radiation, formulating a mathematical model for system optimization, and determining the optimal configuration of PV panels and pumped hydro storage. Through a comparative analysis approach and eight weeks of data collection, the study addressed key research questions related to solar radiation patterns and optimal system design. The findings highlighted regions with heightened solar radiation levels, showcasing substantial potential for power generation and emphasizing the system's efficiency. Optimizing system design significantly boosted power generation, promoted renewable energy utilization, and enhanced energy storage capacity. The study underscored the benefits of optimizing hybrid solar PV panels and pumped hydro energy supply systems for sustainable energy usage. Optimizing the design of solar PV panels and pumped hydro energy supply systems as examined across diverse climatic conditions in a developing country, not only enhances power generation but also improves the integration of renewable energy sources and boosts energy storage capacities, particularly beneficial for less economically prosperous regions. Additionally, the study provides valuable insights for advancing energy research in economically viable areas. Recommendations included conducting site-specific assessments, utilizing advanced modeling tools, implementing regular maintenance protocols, and enhancing communication among system components.
Overview of the fundamental roles in Hydropower generation and the components involved in wider Electrical Engineering.
This paper presents the design and construction of hydroelectric dams from the hydrologist’s survey of the valley before construction, all aspects and involved disciplines, fluid dynamics, structural engineering, generation and mains frequency regulation to the very transmission of power through the network in the United Kingdom.
Author: Robbie Edward Sayers
Collaborators and co editors: Charlie Sims and Connor Healey.
(C) 2024 Robbie E. Sayers
Industrial Training at Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL)MdTanvirMahtab2
This presentation is about the working procedure of Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL). A Govt. owned Company of Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation under Ministry of Industries.
Vaccine management system project report documentation..pdfKamal Acharya
The Division of Vaccine and Immunization is facing increasing difficulty monitoring vaccines and other commodities distribution once they have been distributed from the national stores. With the introduction of new vaccines, more challenges have been anticipated with this additions posing serious threat to the already over strained vaccine supply chain system in Kenya.
Event Management System Vb Net Project Report.pdfKamal Acharya
In present era, the scopes of information technology growing with a very fast .We do not see any are untouched from this industry. The scope of information technology has become wider includes: Business and industry. Household Business, Communication, Education, Entertainment, Science, Medicine, Engineering, Distance Learning, Weather Forecasting. Carrier Searching and so on.
My project named “Event Management System” is software that store and maintained all events coordinated in college. It also helpful to print related reports. My project will help to record the events coordinated by faculties with their Name, Event subject, date & details in an efficient & effective ways.
In my system we have to make a system by which a user can record all events coordinated by a particular faculty. In our proposed system some more featured are added which differs it from the existing system such as security.
Sachpazis:Terzaghi Bearing Capacity Estimation in simple terms with Calculati...Dr.Costas Sachpazis
Terzaghi's soil bearing capacity theory, developed by Karl Terzaghi, is a fundamental principle in geotechnical engineering used to determine the bearing capacity of shallow foundations. This theory provides a method to calculate the ultimate bearing capacity of soil, which is the maximum load per unit area that the soil can support without undergoing shear failure. The Calculation HTML Code included.
Final project report on grocery store management system..pdfKamal Acharya
In today’s fast-changing business environment, it’s extremely important to be able to respond to client needs in the most effective and timely manner. If your customers wish to see your business online and have instant access to your products or services.
Online Grocery Store is an e-commerce website, which retails various grocery products. This project allows viewing various products available enables registered users to purchase desired products instantly using Paytm, UPI payment processor (Instant Pay) and also can place order by using Cash on Delivery (Pay Later) option. This project provides an easy access to Administrators and Managers to view orders placed using Pay Later and Instant Pay options.
In order to develop an e-commerce website, a number of Technologies must be studied and understood. These include multi-tiered architecture, server and client-side scripting techniques, implementation technologies, programming language (such as PHP, HTML, CSS, JavaScript) and MySQL relational databases. This is a project with the objective to develop a basic website where a consumer is provided with a shopping cart website and also to know about the technologies used to develop such a website.
This document will discuss each of the underlying technologies to create and implement an e- commerce website.
NO1 Uk best vashikaran specialist in delhi vashikaran baba near me online vas...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
#vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore#blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #blackmagicforlove #blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #Amilbabainuk #amilbabainspain #amilbabaindubai #Amilbabainnorway #amilbabainkrachi #amilbabainlahore #amilbabaingujranwalan #amilbabainislamabad
Saudi Arabia stands as a titan in the global energy landscape, renowned for its abundant oil and gas resources. It's the largest exporter of petroleum and holds some of the world's most significant reserves. Let's delve into the top 10 oil and gas projects shaping Saudi Arabia's energy future in 2024.
Top 10 Oil and Gas Projects in Saudi Arabia 2024.pdf
Forecasting :- Introduction & its Applications
1. Forecasting: Introduction & Its
Applications
Department of Mechanical Engineering
NITTTR, Chandigarh
Presented By:-
Deepam Goyal
2. CONTENTS
Introduction
Characteristics of Forecasting
Principles & Need of Forecasting
Forecasting Process
Areas of Forecasting
Advantages & Disadvantages of Forecasting
Applications of Forecasting
Case Study : Henkel
References
3. Forecasting :-
• It is the technique of estimating the relevant future
events and problems on the basis of past & present data.
• It is a systematic guess of the future course of events.
• It provides basis for a planning.
Sales forecast:- Estimate of a firm’s revenue for a
specified time period.
INTRODUCTION
4. Contd..
Why are we interested ?
Affects the decisions we make today
Where is forecasting used in POM ?
Forecast demand for products and services
Forecast availability/need for manpower
Forecast inventory and material needs daily
6. Characteristics of Good Forecast
Compatible
with existing
database
system
GOOD
FORECAST
Timely
Online
Capability
Easy to Use &
Understand
Meaningful
Units
Writing
Presentation
ReliableAccurate
7. Six Key Principles Of Forecasting
Iteration
PrudenceDisaggregation
Judgement
Tangiblisation
Triangulation
8. Need of Forecasting
Lead time require that decisions be made in
advance of uncertain events.
is important for all strategic i.e. changing the
engineering design and planning decisions in a
supply chain.
Forecasts of product demand, materials, labour,
financing are an important inputs to scheduling,
acquiring resources & determining resource
requirements.
9. Forecasting Process
6. Check forecast
accuracy with one
or more measures
4. Select a forecast
model that seems
appropriate for data
5. Develop/compute
forecast for period of
historical data
8a. Forecast over
planning horizon
9. Adjust forecast based
on additional
qualitative information
and insight
10. Monitor
results and
measure forecast
accuracy
8b. Select new forecast
model or adjust
parameters of existing
model
7. Is accuracy
of forecast
acceptable?
1. Identify the
purpose of forecast
3. Plot data and
identify patterns
2. Collect historical
data
Yes
No
10. Importance of Forecasting
Pivotal role in an
Organization Key to
Success
Development of a Effective
Business Control
Implementation of Co-ordination
Project Primacy to
Planning
11. Areas Of Forecasting
Technology
AREAS OF
FORECASTING
Supply of
Labour
Economic
Condition
Growth Trend
New Laws &
Regulations
Social Change
Political
ChangeCompetition
12. Advantages of Forecasting
The anticipation of future problems and events to
accelerate early achievements of objectives.
Facilitates Planning
Ensures Coordination
Easy Controlling
13. Limitation of Forecasting
Forecasting is to be made on the basis of certain assumptions
and human judgments.
Too much of expectation will cause disappointment and
impair the initiative of the executives.
It requires high degree of skill and the process must be
undertaken by specialists.
Long-term forecasts will be less accurate as compared to
short-term forecast
Heavy cost and time
14. Applications of Forecasting
1. Supply chain management
• includes the movement and storage of raw materials, work-in-
process inventory, and finished goods from point of origin to point of
consumption.
2. Economic forecasting
• is the process of making predictions about the economy
3.Earthquake Forecasting
• defined as the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of
a future earthquake within stated limits", and particularly of
"the next strong earthquake to occur in a region
15. 4.Egain Forecasting
• The process of climate change and increasing energy prices has
led to the usage of Egain Forecasting of buildings
5.Land Use Forecasting
• undertakes to project the distribution and intensity of trip
generating activities in the urban area
6.Player & Team Performance in Sports
• PECOTA, is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League
Baseball player performance
7. Political Forecasting
• aims at predicting the outcome of elections
Contd..
16. 8.Transportation Forecasting
• the process of estimating the number of vehicles or people
that will use a specific transportation facility in the future
9. Telecommunications Forecasting
• Telecommunications service providers perform forecasting
calculations to assist them in planning their networks
10. Product Forecasting
• is the science of predicting the degree of success a new
product will enjoy in the marketplace.
11. Sales Forecasting
Contd..
17. 12.Technology Forecasting
• attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful
technological machines, procedures or techniques
13.Weather Forecasting
• is the application of science and technology to predict the state
of the atmosphere for a given location.
14. Flood Forecasting
• the use of real-time precipitation and streamflow data
in rainfall-runoff and streamflow routing models to forecast flow
rates and water levels for periods ranging from a few hours to
days ahead, depending on the size of the watershed or river
basin.
Contd..
18. CASE STUDY : HENKEL
Introduction :-
Henkel is a manufacturer which operates in three business areas:
- home care products
- sanitary
- adhesive technologies
The Henkel group has a workforce of approximately 48,000
employees in over 120 countries around the world, and is amongst
the 500 most profitable companies.
Aim :-
To improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts of existing and
upcoming products. The goal was not an incremental improvement,
but a “step-change” in the forecasting accuracy.
19. Company’s Problem :-
The main reasons to change the existing forecasting model
was the low forecasting accuracy and difficulties with
evaluating the potential of new products.
Price promotions performed by competitors influenced
Henkel’s data-only based predictions and made them
inaccurate.
20. Social forecasting at Henkel :-
• The key to increasing the forecasting accuracy is the use of incentives
in Social Forecasting.
• Each month the top 10 forecasters can win iPads and other valuable
prizes. These top 10 forecasters also gain recognition.
• The difference in a survey is that participants are not rewarded for
their mere participation but for their actual forecasting accuracy.
21. Results :-
These incentives greatly increased the forecasting accuracy as we
will show below.
The average accuracy of Social Forecasting is 85.3%, while
Henkel’s method achieved only 69.3%.
22. REFERENCES
Narasimhan, S.L., D.W. Mcleavey, and P.J. Billington. “Production
Planning And Inventory Control”. 2. New Delhi: Prentice Hall of India
Learning Private Limited, 2009. 25-52. Print.
Groover, M.P., Emory W. Zimmers JR. “CAD/CAM:Computer-Aided
Design and Manufacturing”. 25. New Delhi: Prentice Hall of India
Private Limited, 2002. 324-332. Print.
Mukhopadhyay, S.K. ”Production Planning and Control”. 2. New
Delhi: Prentice Hall of India Private Limited, 2004. 27-63. Print.
Reddy, J.Mahender. ”Demand forecasting : methods, applications &
cases”. 1. New Delhi: Light & Life Publishers, 1981. 152-192. Print.
Internet Source :-
www.crowdsourcing.org