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International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 204
Financial comparative analysis of SPV and SPT power plants for a
village in Rajasthan
Vikrram Singh Meena1, G.D Agrawal2
Centre for Energy and Environment, Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur 302017, India
---------------------------------------------------------------------***--------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract- A village Mansarkheri, situated in district
Jaipur is selected and energy consumption data of the
village is collected from electricity Distribution Company
in 2014. On the basis of this data the energy consumption
for year 2015, 2019 and 2024 is obtained by using linear
regression forecasting. The annual energy required by the
village Mansarkheri is found to be 638.25 MWh/annum,
821.27 MWh/annum and 1072.01 MWh/annum in year
2015, 2019 and 2024 respectively. According to these
energy requirements, solar photovoltaic power plants of
capacity 395.34 kW, 508.71 kW, 664.02 kW and solar
parabolic trough power plants of capacities 312.61 kW
451.24 kW 641.88 kW are proposed and financially
analyzed for year 2015, 2019 and 2024. Capital costs of
SPV and SPT plants for year 2010 to 2014 are taken from
order issued by central electricity regulatory commission
and on the basis of these costs, capital cost for year 2015,
2019 and 2024 are calculated by using forecasting.
Financial analysis has been done on the basis of four
financial scenarios i.e. (i) pre tax (ii) post tax (iii) pre tax
with equity (iv) post tax with equity. In each financial
scenario, financial indicators are calculated which are,
internal rate of return, simple payback period, discounted
payback period at 10% and 15%, net present value at 10%
and 15% discount rate. Levelized cost of energy and
capital recovery factor are also calculated at different-
different discount rates for year 2015, 2019 and 2024.
Key words: Solar photovoltaic plant, solar parabolic
trough plant, financial analysis, Electrical energy demand
1. INTRODUCTION
A village Mansarkheri situated in Bassi sub division of
Jaipur district, at (latitude 26˚83’N,
longitude 76˚05’E, altitude 351 m, is selected for the
study. Energy demand of the village in year 2015, 2019
and 2024 are calculated and solar photovoltaic, solar
parabolic trough power plants are proposed for which
the financial indicators are calculated for the purpose of
financial comparative analysis.
Chandel et al. [1] proposed and designed solar
photovoltaic power plant to supply the electrical energy
demand of the garment zone of Jaipur city, considering
two cases i.e. (i) onsite option (ii) offsite option. In both
the cases financial indicators are calculated and
compared with each other. The internal rate of return
(IRR), net present value (NPV) at 10% discount rate,
simple pay-back period, discounted pay-back period at
10% discount rate and Levelized cost of energy at 10%
discount rate are 11.88%, 119.52 million INR, 7.73 years,
15.53 years and 14.94 Rs. Per kWh for on-site power
plant and 15.10%, 249.78 million INR, 6.19 years,10.14
years and 11.40 Rs. Per kWh for off-site power plant.
Agrawal et al.[2]. Proposed and designed solar
parabolic trough power plant to supply the electrical
energy demand of the garment zone of Jaipur city,
considering two cases i.e. (i) onsite option (ii) offsite
option. In both the cases financial indicators are
calculated and compared with each other. The internal
rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV) at 10%
discount rate, simple pay-back period, discounted pay-
back period at 10% discount rate and Levelized cost of
energy at 10% discount rate are 19.21%, 372.77 million
INR, 5 years, 7 years 4 months and 9.41 Rs. Per kWh for
on-site power plant and 27.85%, 550.55 million INR, 3
years 6 months, 4 years 7 months and 6.89 Rs. Per kWh
for off-site power plant. Shimy [3] carried out a study in
order to find out site feasibility in Egypt for the 10 MW
capacity power generation facility which is grid
connected and also evaluated the power plant on the
basis of techno-economical as well as environmental
considerations. They also exercised in selection of most
appropriate solar PV module for which the all available
PV modules in the market are taken in to consideration.
29 sites are selected in Egypt for which the
meteorological data are taken from NASA website and
these data are further analyzed in order to extract the
characteristics of important meteorological parameters
like solar insolation, sunshine period, ambient
temperature of air and humidity content in air. On the
basis of these characteristics of meteorological
parameters they examined the suitability as well as
compatibility of PV modules in the meteorological
conditions of Egypt. This project is analyzed by using
RETScreen software. Hongxing et al. [4] proposed an
optimally design model of hybrid energy generation
system which includes solar system and wind system
with the facility of battery storage. They identified the
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 205
configuration giving optimum performance and also
ensured about the minimization of annualized cost of the
system. This method suggested by this study is also
practically applied at telecommunication relay station
located in southeast China along the coast. In this
telecommunication relay station this method and model
is applied in order to fulfill the power required by it. The
characteristics of both solar and wind are found to be
acceptable.
2. POPULATION AND ENERGY
CONSUMPTION FORECASTING
Population data of year 1951 to 2011 are taken from
census department and these data are forecasted in
order to find population for the years up to 2024. The
population data is tabulated in table-1. Per capita energy
consumption data from 2010 to 2014 years are taken
from electricity Distribution Company and these data has
been forecasted in order to find per capita consumption
data for years up to 2024. These electricity consumption
data are tabulated in table-2.
Annual energy consumption is obtained by multiplying
per capita energy consumption with population of the
respective year. Capital cost for SPV plant for years 2010
to 2015 and for SPT plant for years 2012 to 2015 are
tabulated in table-3 and table-4 respectively. These costs
have been taken from the order issued by central
electricity regulatory commission. On the basis of these
costs, capital cost for SPV plant and SPT plant for year
2019 and 2024 are calculated. Capital cost of spv plant is
estimated as 818.84 Rs.lakh/MW and 866.39
Rs.lakh/MW for year 2019 and 2024 respectively.
Capital cost of SPT plant is obtained as 1101.50
Rs.lakh/MW and 1012.03 Rs.lakh/MW for year 2019 and
2024 respectively. According to these capital costs,
project cost of SPV plants and SPT plants for year
2015,2019 and 2024 have been calculated and tabulated
in table-5 and table-6respectively.[6], [7], [8], [9], [10],
[11], [12], [13]
Table-4: Capital Cost for SPT Power plant in Rs.
Lakh/MW for years 2012-2015
S.No. Particulars/Years 2012 2013 2014 2015
1 Collector 572.00 528.00 528.00 528.00
2 Storage 234.00 216.00 216.00 216.00
3 Contingencies 156.00 144.00 144.00 144.00
4 Electricity generation 130.00 120.00 120.00 120.00
5 Consultancy 78.00 72.00 72.00 72.00
6 Balance of plant 52.00 48.00 48.00 48.00
7 Heat exchangers 39.00 36.00 36.00 36.00
8 Structures 20.06 20.50 20.88 21.25
9 Land 10.03 10.25 10.44 10.63
10 Total capital cost 1291.09 1194.75 1195.31 1195.88
Table-6: Project cost of SPT plants in Rs. Lakh/MW
S.No. Particulars/Years SPT 2015 SPT 2019 SPT 2024
1 Collector cost 165.06 218.40 283.31
2 Storage cost 67.52 89.35 115.90
3 Contingencies cost 45.02 59.56 77.27
4 Electricity generation cost 37.51 49.64 64.39
5 Consultancy cost 22.51 29.78 38.63
6 Balance of plant cost 15.01 19.85 25.76
7 Heat exchangers cost 11.25 14.89 19.32
8 Structures cost 6.64 10.38 16.69
9 Land cost 3.32 5.19 8.34
10 Capital cost 373.84 497.04 649.60
11 Capital cost with 30% subsidy 261.69 347.93 454.72
3. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
In this section SPV and SPT power plants are financially
evaluated on the basis of four scenarios i.e. (i) pre tax (ii)
post tax (iii) pre tax with equity (iv) post tax with equity.
In each financial scenario, financial indicators are
calculated which are, internal rate of return, simple
payback period, discounted payback period at 10% and
15%, net present value at 10% and 15% discount rate.
3.1 Financial assumptions
The financial analysis is carried out as per some
standard financial assumptions which are tabulated in
table-7.
Table-7: Financial assumptions
S.No. Parameters Value
1 Analysis period 25 years
2 O & M cost 2.20%
3 Escalation in O & M cost 5.72%
4 REC benefits 3500 INR/MWh
5 Tax 4% after 10 years
6 Debt fraction 70%
7 Equity fraction 30%
8 Interest rate 10%
9 Depreciation 5.83% for first 12 years, 1.54% afterwards
3.2 financial indicators
Financial indicators for SPV and SPT plants i.e. internal
rate of return, simple payback period, discounted
payback period at 10% and 15%, net present value at
10% and 15% discount rate are calculated and tabulated
in table-8 for comparative analysis. All these financial
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 206
Table-1: Population forecasting [5]
Year 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2015 2019 2024
Population 891 985 1233 1525 2177 2834 3662 3474 3659 3891
Table-2: Per capita energy consumption in kWh of village Mansarkheri
Year Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Annual per capita(kWh) Population Annual Consumption( MWh)
2010 17.72 20.86 23.92 29.38 16.98 24.50 133.37 3243 432.48
2011 22.78 22.98 18.99 23.85 23.94 19.76 132.29 3289 435.10
2012 18.79 17.20 27.75 28.94 36.90 33.04 162.64 3335 542.44
2013 25.97 30.86 32.63 29.04 28.33 23.51 170.34 3382 576.01
2014 28.91 17.95 32.37 24.31 32.58 29.61 165.74 3428 568.14
2015 30.51 22.59 36.29 25.62 38.42 30.27 183.71 3474 638.25
2019 40.74 23.42 48.12 23.64 52.66 35.86 224.44 3659 821.27
2024 53.54 24.45 63.09 21.17 70.45 42.84 275.54 3891 1072.01
Table-3: Capital Cost for SPV Power plant in Rs. Lakh/MW for years 2010-2015
S.No. Particulars/Years 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1 PV Modules Cost 915 833 494 344.50 334.00 332.35
2 Land Cost 5 15 16 16.80 18.00 25.00
3 Civil and General Works Cost 90 95 90 94.50 50.00 50.00
4 Mounting Structures Cost 80 105 100 105.00 40.00 50.00
5 Power Conditioning Unit Cost 180 160 98 60.00 50.00 45.00
6 Evacuation Cost up to Inter-connection Point (Cables and Transformers) Cost 85 90 100 105.00 60.00 55.00
7 Preliminary and Pre-Operative Expenses including IDC and contingency Cost 165 144 80 80.00 60.00 48.50
8 Capital Cost 1520 1442 978 805.8 612 605.85
Table 10: LCOE analysis of SPT plant for 2015, 2019 and 2024
LCOE for 25 years
Discount rate 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 15%
Capital Recovery Factor 0.0782 0.0858 0.0937 0.1018 0.1102 0.1187 0.1275 0.1547
Capital Recovery Factor + O&M 0.0982 0.1058 0.1137 0.1218 0.1302 0.1387 0.1475 0.1747
Year Installed cost (INR/ kW) LCOE(INR/kWh)
2015 119587.50 4.22 4.49 4.76 5.05 5.35 5.65 5.96 6.92
2019 110150.00 3.94 4.19 4.45 4.71 4.98 5.26 5.55 6.43
2024 101203.13 3.68 3.91 4.15 4.39 4.64 4.90 5.16 5.97
Table-9: LCOE analysis of SPV plant for year 2015, 2019 and 2024
LCOE for 25 years
Discount rate 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 15%
Capital Recovery Factor 0.0782 0.0858 0.0937 0.1018 0.1102 0.1187 0.1275 0.1547
Capital Recovery Factor + O&M 0.0982 0.1058 0.1137 0.1218 0.1302 0.1387 0.1475 0.1747
Year Installed cost (INR/ kW) LCOE(INR/kWh)
2015 78010.00 3.01 3.18 3.36 3.55 3.75 3.94 4.15 4.77
2019 81883.00 3.12 3.30 3.50 3.69 3.89 4.10 4.31 4.97
2024 86639.00 3.26 3.45 3.66 3.86 4.08 4.30 4.52 5.22
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 207
Table-5: Project cost of SPV plants
S.No. Particulars/Years SPV 2015 SPV 2019 SPV 2024
1 PV Modules Cost 131.39 155.96 183.40
2 Land Cost 9.88 17.97 33.07
3 Civil and General Works Cost 37.26 50.08 67.92
4 Mounting Structures Cost 45.46 69.95 107.59
5 Power Conditioning Unit Cost 17.79 22.89 29.88
6 Evacuation Cost up to Inter-connection Point (Cables and Transformers) Cost 47.44 75.03 121.24
7 Preliminary and Pre-Operative Expenses including IDC and contingency Cost 19.17 24.67 32.20
8 Capital Cost 308.40 416.55 575.30
9 Capital cost with 30% capital subsidy 215.88 291.58 402.71
Table-8: Financial indicators of SPV and SPT plants
Case Without subsidy With subsidy
Year 2015 2019 2024 2015 2019 2024
Plant SPV SPT SPV SPT SPV SPT SPV SPT SPV SPT SPV SPT
Pre Tax
NPV @ 10 % 3.61 -0.87 2.24 -2.95 -0.69 -3.82 12.02 9.32 17.10 13.48 19.75 17.53
NPV @ 15 % -4.56 -9.33 -7.96 -13.63 -13.59 -17.79 3.49 0.42 5.09 1.13 4.38 1.42
IRR in % 11.82 9.64 10.85 9.06 9.80 9.07 18.36 15.33 18.55 15.66 17.22 15.63
Simple payback period (years) 7.39 8.76 7.88 9.13 8.46 9.13 5.08 6.02 5.10 5.97 5.44 5.98
payback period (years) @ 10% 15.36 Never 18.71 Never Never Never 7.60 9.93 7.60 9.75 8.22 9.78
payback period (years) @ 15% Never Never Never Never Never Never 10.91 20.67 10.84 18.56 13.01 18.72
Post Tax
NPV @ 10 % 3.31 -1.19 1.86 -3.35 -1.16 -4.34 11.70 8.98 16.64 13.01 19.18 16.91
NPV @ 15 % -4.70 -9.48 -8.14 -13.82 -13.82 -18.04 3.34 0.26 4.88 0.91 4.10 1.12
IRR in % 11.69 9.49 10.71 8.92 9.67 8.93 18.24 15.20 18.44 15.54 17.11 15.51
Simple payback period (years) 7.39 8.76 7.88 9.13 8.46 9.13 5.08 6.02 5.10 5.97 5.44 5.98
payback period (years) @ 10% 15.63 Never 19.30 Never Never Never 7.60 9.93 7.60 9.75 8.36 9.78
payback period (years) @ 15% Never Never Never Never Never Never 10.94 21.86 10.87 19.26 13.16 19.45
Pre Tax Equity
NPV @ 10 % 3.61 -0.87 2.24 -2.95 -0.69 -3.82 12.02 9.32 17.10 13.48 19.75 17.53
NPV @ 15 % -0.72 -4.68 -2.78 -7.44 -6.43 -9.71 6.17 3.67 8.72 5.46 9.39 7.08
IRR in % 13.84 9.29 11.74 8.22 9.61 8.24 31.29 22.32 31.38 22.96 27.55 22.89
Simple payback period (years) 10.19 13.97 12.60 14.63 13.64 14.62 3.10 4.62 3.14 4.55 3.61 4.57
Payback period (years) @ 10% 15.36 Never 18.71 Never Never Never 3.94 6.73 3.98 6.54 4.77 6.57
payback period (years) @ 15% Never Never Never Never Never Never 4.59 9.30 4.64 8.78 5.76 8.85
Post Tax Equity
NPV @ 10 % 3.31 -1.19 1.86 -3.35 -1.16 -4.34 11.70 8.98 16.64 13.01 19.18 16.91
NPV @ 15 % -0.86 -4.83 -2.96 -7.63 -6.66 -9.96 6.02 3.52 8.50 5.24 9.12 6.78
IRR in % 13.59 9.01 11.48 7.94 9.34 7.96 31.17 22.14 31.26 22.77 27.39 22.70
Simple payback period (years) 10.24 14.11 12.69 14.80 13.77 14.79 3.10 4.62 3.14 4.55 3.61 4.57
payback period (years) @ 10% 15.63 Never 19.30 Never Never Never 3.94 6.73 3.98 6.54 4.77 6.57
payback period (years) @ 15% Never Never Never Never Never Never 4.59 9.30 4.64 8.78 5.76 8.85
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 208
indicators are calculated in two cases i.e. (i) without
subsidy (ii) with 30% capital subsidy if provided by
government.
4. LCOE ANALYSIS
Energy demand: The annual energy required by the
village Mansarkheri is 638.25 MWh/year, 821.27
MWh/year and 1072.01 MWh/year in year 2015, 2019
and 2024 respectively.
Plant capacity: To supply this energy demand SPV
plants of capacity 395.34 kW, 508.71 kW, 664.02 kW and
SPT plants of capacity 312.61 kW, 451.24 kW, and
641.88 kW are proposed and analysed in year 2015,
2019 and 2024 respectively.
Capital cost of SPV plant: The capital cost of SPV power
plant is 780.10 RS.Lakh/MW, 818.83 RS.Lakh/MW and
866.39 RS.Lakh/MW in year 2015, 2019 and 2024
respectively.
Project cost of SPV plant: SPV power plant project cost
for village Mansarkheri are calculated as 308.40 Rs.Lakh,
416.55 Rs.Lakh, 575.30 Rs.Lakh for without subsidy and
215.88 Rs.Lakh, 291.58 Rs.Lakh, 402.71 Rs.Lakh with
30% capital subsidy in year 2015, 2019 and 2024
respectively.
Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE): LCOE is calculated
for SPV plant and SPT power plant by considering
different discount rates i.e. 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%,
12%, 13%, 14% and 15%. As the discount rate is
increasing from 6% towards 15%, LCOE is also
increasing in both the cases i.e. for SPV plants and SPT
power plants in every year.
Financial indicators: The IRR is found to be higher in
case of pre-tax scenario as compared with the IRR in
Post-tax scenario and the pay-back period is found to be
lesser in case of pre-tax scenario as compared with the
pay-back period in Post-tax scenario. Similarly IRR is
found to be higher in case of pre-tax with equity scenario
as compared with the IRR in Post-tax with equity
scenario and the pay-back period is found to be lesser in
case of pre-tax with equity scenario as compared with
the pay-back period in Post-tax with equity scenario
Capital cost of SPT plant: The capital cost of SPT power
plant is 1195.88, RS.Lakh/MW, 1101.50 RS.Lakh/MW
and 1012.03 RS.Lakh/MW in year 2015, 2019 and 2024
respectively.
Project cost of SPT plant: SPT project cost for village
Mansarkheri are calculated as 373.84 Rs.Lakh, 497.04
Rs.Lakh, 649.60 Rs.Lakh for without subsidy and 261.69
Rs.Lakh, 347.93 Rs.Lakh, 454.72 Rs.Lakh with 30%
capital subsidy in year 2015, 2019 and 2024
respectively.
Major findings: It is found that the capital cost, simple
payback period, discounted payback periods at 10% and
15% discount rate and LCOE are less and IRR is more for
SPV power plant as compared with SPT plant in every
year and in all cases.
REFERENCES
[1]M. Chandel, G.D.Agrawal, S.Mathur and A.Mathur,
Techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic power
plant for garment zone of Jaipur city, Case Studies in
Thermal Engineering 2 (2014) 1–7.
[2]M. Chandel and G.D.Agrawal, Techno-economic
analysis of solar parabolic trough type energy system for
garment zone of Jaipur city, Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews 17(2013)104–109.
[3] M. Shimy, Viability analysis of PV power plants in
Egypt, Renewable Energy 34 (2009) 2187–2196
[4] Y. Hongxing, Z. Wei and L. Chengzhi, Optimal design
and techno-economic analysis of a hybrid solar–wind
power generation system, Applied Energy 86 (2009)
163–169.
[5] Population census data of village Mansarkheri
website, http://censusindia.gov.in/, accessed on March
2015.
[6] Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity
Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No.
SM/354/2013 (Suo-Motu).
[7] Terms and Conditions for Tariff determination from
Renewable Energy Sources Regulations, Central
Electricity Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, No.: L-
1/94/CERC/2011.
[8]Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity
Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No.
SM/353/2013 (Suo-Motu).
5. CONCLUSION
In this study a village Mansarkheri is selected and the
electricity demand of the village is estimated for years
2015, 2019 and 2024. Now to supply the electricity
demands of year 2015, 2019 and 2024, SPV and SPT
power plants are proposed. Following conclusions can be
drawn from the study.
Levelized cost of electricity and capital recovery factor at
different-different discount rates has been calculated for
SPV and SPT plants and tabulated in table-9 and Table-
10 respectively.
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 209
[9]Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity
Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No.
SM/004/2015 (Suo-Motu).
[10]Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity
Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No.
SM/005/2015 (Suo-Motu).
[11]Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity
Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No.
243/SM/2012 (Suo-Motu).
[12] Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity
Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No.
SM/354/2013 (Suo-Motu).
[13] CERC revises capital cost of solar photovoltaic
power plant, website, http://re-solve.in/, accessed on
Jan 2015.
BIOGRAPHIES
Vikrram Singh Meena
M.Tech- Renewable Energy
Malaviya National Institute Of
Technology, Jaipur, India
B.Tech- Electrical Engineering
Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi,
India
Dr. G. D. Agrawal
Associate Professor
Dept. of Mechanical Engineering,
Malaviya National Institute Of
Technology, Jaipur, India
Ph.D.-Energy Recovery From
MSW
M.Tech.-Thermal Engineering
B.E.-Mechanical Engineering

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Financial Comparative Analysis of SPV and SPT Power Plants for a Village in Rajasthan

  • 1. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 204 Financial comparative analysis of SPV and SPT power plants for a village in Rajasthan Vikrram Singh Meena1, G.D Agrawal2 Centre for Energy and Environment, Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur 302017, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***-------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract- A village Mansarkheri, situated in district Jaipur is selected and energy consumption data of the village is collected from electricity Distribution Company in 2014. On the basis of this data the energy consumption for year 2015, 2019 and 2024 is obtained by using linear regression forecasting. The annual energy required by the village Mansarkheri is found to be 638.25 MWh/annum, 821.27 MWh/annum and 1072.01 MWh/annum in year 2015, 2019 and 2024 respectively. According to these energy requirements, solar photovoltaic power plants of capacity 395.34 kW, 508.71 kW, 664.02 kW and solar parabolic trough power plants of capacities 312.61 kW 451.24 kW 641.88 kW are proposed and financially analyzed for year 2015, 2019 and 2024. Capital costs of SPV and SPT plants for year 2010 to 2014 are taken from order issued by central electricity regulatory commission and on the basis of these costs, capital cost for year 2015, 2019 and 2024 are calculated by using forecasting. Financial analysis has been done on the basis of four financial scenarios i.e. (i) pre tax (ii) post tax (iii) pre tax with equity (iv) post tax with equity. In each financial scenario, financial indicators are calculated which are, internal rate of return, simple payback period, discounted payback period at 10% and 15%, net present value at 10% and 15% discount rate. Levelized cost of energy and capital recovery factor are also calculated at different- different discount rates for year 2015, 2019 and 2024. Key words: Solar photovoltaic plant, solar parabolic trough plant, financial analysis, Electrical energy demand 1. INTRODUCTION A village Mansarkheri situated in Bassi sub division of Jaipur district, at (latitude 26˚83’N, longitude 76˚05’E, altitude 351 m, is selected for the study. Energy demand of the village in year 2015, 2019 and 2024 are calculated and solar photovoltaic, solar parabolic trough power plants are proposed for which the financial indicators are calculated for the purpose of financial comparative analysis. Chandel et al. [1] proposed and designed solar photovoltaic power plant to supply the electrical energy demand of the garment zone of Jaipur city, considering two cases i.e. (i) onsite option (ii) offsite option. In both the cases financial indicators are calculated and compared with each other. The internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV) at 10% discount rate, simple pay-back period, discounted pay-back period at 10% discount rate and Levelized cost of energy at 10% discount rate are 11.88%, 119.52 million INR, 7.73 years, 15.53 years and 14.94 Rs. Per kWh for on-site power plant and 15.10%, 249.78 million INR, 6.19 years,10.14 years and 11.40 Rs. Per kWh for off-site power plant. Agrawal et al.[2]. Proposed and designed solar parabolic trough power plant to supply the electrical energy demand of the garment zone of Jaipur city, considering two cases i.e. (i) onsite option (ii) offsite option. In both the cases financial indicators are calculated and compared with each other. The internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV) at 10% discount rate, simple pay-back period, discounted pay- back period at 10% discount rate and Levelized cost of energy at 10% discount rate are 19.21%, 372.77 million INR, 5 years, 7 years 4 months and 9.41 Rs. Per kWh for on-site power plant and 27.85%, 550.55 million INR, 3 years 6 months, 4 years 7 months and 6.89 Rs. Per kWh for off-site power plant. Shimy [3] carried out a study in order to find out site feasibility in Egypt for the 10 MW capacity power generation facility which is grid connected and also evaluated the power plant on the basis of techno-economical as well as environmental considerations. They also exercised in selection of most appropriate solar PV module for which the all available PV modules in the market are taken in to consideration. 29 sites are selected in Egypt for which the meteorological data are taken from NASA website and these data are further analyzed in order to extract the characteristics of important meteorological parameters like solar insolation, sunshine period, ambient temperature of air and humidity content in air. On the basis of these characteristics of meteorological parameters they examined the suitability as well as compatibility of PV modules in the meteorological conditions of Egypt. This project is analyzed by using RETScreen software. Hongxing et al. [4] proposed an optimally design model of hybrid energy generation system which includes solar system and wind system with the facility of battery storage. They identified the
  • 2. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 205 configuration giving optimum performance and also ensured about the minimization of annualized cost of the system. This method suggested by this study is also practically applied at telecommunication relay station located in southeast China along the coast. In this telecommunication relay station this method and model is applied in order to fulfill the power required by it. The characteristics of both solar and wind are found to be acceptable. 2. POPULATION AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECASTING Population data of year 1951 to 2011 are taken from census department and these data are forecasted in order to find population for the years up to 2024. The population data is tabulated in table-1. Per capita energy consumption data from 2010 to 2014 years are taken from electricity Distribution Company and these data has been forecasted in order to find per capita consumption data for years up to 2024. These electricity consumption data are tabulated in table-2. Annual energy consumption is obtained by multiplying per capita energy consumption with population of the respective year. Capital cost for SPV plant for years 2010 to 2015 and for SPT plant for years 2012 to 2015 are tabulated in table-3 and table-4 respectively. These costs have been taken from the order issued by central electricity regulatory commission. On the basis of these costs, capital cost for SPV plant and SPT plant for year 2019 and 2024 are calculated. Capital cost of spv plant is estimated as 818.84 Rs.lakh/MW and 866.39 Rs.lakh/MW for year 2019 and 2024 respectively. Capital cost of SPT plant is obtained as 1101.50 Rs.lakh/MW and 1012.03 Rs.lakh/MW for year 2019 and 2024 respectively. According to these capital costs, project cost of SPV plants and SPT plants for year 2015,2019 and 2024 have been calculated and tabulated in table-5 and table-6respectively.[6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13] Table-4: Capital Cost for SPT Power plant in Rs. Lakh/MW for years 2012-2015 S.No. Particulars/Years 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 Collector 572.00 528.00 528.00 528.00 2 Storage 234.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 3 Contingencies 156.00 144.00 144.00 144.00 4 Electricity generation 130.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 5 Consultancy 78.00 72.00 72.00 72.00 6 Balance of plant 52.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 7 Heat exchangers 39.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 8 Structures 20.06 20.50 20.88 21.25 9 Land 10.03 10.25 10.44 10.63 10 Total capital cost 1291.09 1194.75 1195.31 1195.88 Table-6: Project cost of SPT plants in Rs. Lakh/MW S.No. Particulars/Years SPT 2015 SPT 2019 SPT 2024 1 Collector cost 165.06 218.40 283.31 2 Storage cost 67.52 89.35 115.90 3 Contingencies cost 45.02 59.56 77.27 4 Electricity generation cost 37.51 49.64 64.39 5 Consultancy cost 22.51 29.78 38.63 6 Balance of plant cost 15.01 19.85 25.76 7 Heat exchangers cost 11.25 14.89 19.32 8 Structures cost 6.64 10.38 16.69 9 Land cost 3.32 5.19 8.34 10 Capital cost 373.84 497.04 649.60 11 Capital cost with 30% subsidy 261.69 347.93 454.72 3. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS In this section SPV and SPT power plants are financially evaluated on the basis of four scenarios i.e. (i) pre tax (ii) post tax (iii) pre tax with equity (iv) post tax with equity. In each financial scenario, financial indicators are calculated which are, internal rate of return, simple payback period, discounted payback period at 10% and 15%, net present value at 10% and 15% discount rate. 3.1 Financial assumptions The financial analysis is carried out as per some standard financial assumptions which are tabulated in table-7. Table-7: Financial assumptions S.No. Parameters Value 1 Analysis period 25 years 2 O & M cost 2.20% 3 Escalation in O & M cost 5.72% 4 REC benefits 3500 INR/MWh 5 Tax 4% after 10 years 6 Debt fraction 70% 7 Equity fraction 30% 8 Interest rate 10% 9 Depreciation 5.83% for first 12 years, 1.54% afterwards 3.2 financial indicators Financial indicators for SPV and SPT plants i.e. internal rate of return, simple payback period, discounted payback period at 10% and 15%, net present value at 10% and 15% discount rate are calculated and tabulated in table-8 for comparative analysis. All these financial
  • 3. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 206 Table-1: Population forecasting [5] Year 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2015 2019 2024 Population 891 985 1233 1525 2177 2834 3662 3474 3659 3891 Table-2: Per capita energy consumption in kWh of village Mansarkheri Year Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Annual per capita(kWh) Population Annual Consumption( MWh) 2010 17.72 20.86 23.92 29.38 16.98 24.50 133.37 3243 432.48 2011 22.78 22.98 18.99 23.85 23.94 19.76 132.29 3289 435.10 2012 18.79 17.20 27.75 28.94 36.90 33.04 162.64 3335 542.44 2013 25.97 30.86 32.63 29.04 28.33 23.51 170.34 3382 576.01 2014 28.91 17.95 32.37 24.31 32.58 29.61 165.74 3428 568.14 2015 30.51 22.59 36.29 25.62 38.42 30.27 183.71 3474 638.25 2019 40.74 23.42 48.12 23.64 52.66 35.86 224.44 3659 821.27 2024 53.54 24.45 63.09 21.17 70.45 42.84 275.54 3891 1072.01 Table-3: Capital Cost for SPV Power plant in Rs. Lakh/MW for years 2010-2015 S.No. Particulars/Years 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 PV Modules Cost 915 833 494 344.50 334.00 332.35 2 Land Cost 5 15 16 16.80 18.00 25.00 3 Civil and General Works Cost 90 95 90 94.50 50.00 50.00 4 Mounting Structures Cost 80 105 100 105.00 40.00 50.00 5 Power Conditioning Unit Cost 180 160 98 60.00 50.00 45.00 6 Evacuation Cost up to Inter-connection Point (Cables and Transformers) Cost 85 90 100 105.00 60.00 55.00 7 Preliminary and Pre-Operative Expenses including IDC and contingency Cost 165 144 80 80.00 60.00 48.50 8 Capital Cost 1520 1442 978 805.8 612 605.85 Table 10: LCOE analysis of SPT plant for 2015, 2019 and 2024 LCOE for 25 years Discount rate 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 15% Capital Recovery Factor 0.0782 0.0858 0.0937 0.1018 0.1102 0.1187 0.1275 0.1547 Capital Recovery Factor + O&M 0.0982 0.1058 0.1137 0.1218 0.1302 0.1387 0.1475 0.1747 Year Installed cost (INR/ kW) LCOE(INR/kWh) 2015 119587.50 4.22 4.49 4.76 5.05 5.35 5.65 5.96 6.92 2019 110150.00 3.94 4.19 4.45 4.71 4.98 5.26 5.55 6.43 2024 101203.13 3.68 3.91 4.15 4.39 4.64 4.90 5.16 5.97 Table-9: LCOE analysis of SPV plant for year 2015, 2019 and 2024 LCOE for 25 years Discount rate 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 15% Capital Recovery Factor 0.0782 0.0858 0.0937 0.1018 0.1102 0.1187 0.1275 0.1547 Capital Recovery Factor + O&M 0.0982 0.1058 0.1137 0.1218 0.1302 0.1387 0.1475 0.1747 Year Installed cost (INR/ kW) LCOE(INR/kWh) 2015 78010.00 3.01 3.18 3.36 3.55 3.75 3.94 4.15 4.77 2019 81883.00 3.12 3.30 3.50 3.69 3.89 4.10 4.31 4.97 2024 86639.00 3.26 3.45 3.66 3.86 4.08 4.30 4.52 5.22
  • 4. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 207 Table-5: Project cost of SPV plants S.No. Particulars/Years SPV 2015 SPV 2019 SPV 2024 1 PV Modules Cost 131.39 155.96 183.40 2 Land Cost 9.88 17.97 33.07 3 Civil and General Works Cost 37.26 50.08 67.92 4 Mounting Structures Cost 45.46 69.95 107.59 5 Power Conditioning Unit Cost 17.79 22.89 29.88 6 Evacuation Cost up to Inter-connection Point (Cables and Transformers) Cost 47.44 75.03 121.24 7 Preliminary and Pre-Operative Expenses including IDC and contingency Cost 19.17 24.67 32.20 8 Capital Cost 308.40 416.55 575.30 9 Capital cost with 30% capital subsidy 215.88 291.58 402.71 Table-8: Financial indicators of SPV and SPT plants Case Without subsidy With subsidy Year 2015 2019 2024 2015 2019 2024 Plant SPV SPT SPV SPT SPV SPT SPV SPT SPV SPT SPV SPT Pre Tax NPV @ 10 % 3.61 -0.87 2.24 -2.95 -0.69 -3.82 12.02 9.32 17.10 13.48 19.75 17.53 NPV @ 15 % -4.56 -9.33 -7.96 -13.63 -13.59 -17.79 3.49 0.42 5.09 1.13 4.38 1.42 IRR in % 11.82 9.64 10.85 9.06 9.80 9.07 18.36 15.33 18.55 15.66 17.22 15.63 Simple payback period (years) 7.39 8.76 7.88 9.13 8.46 9.13 5.08 6.02 5.10 5.97 5.44 5.98 payback period (years) @ 10% 15.36 Never 18.71 Never Never Never 7.60 9.93 7.60 9.75 8.22 9.78 payback period (years) @ 15% Never Never Never Never Never Never 10.91 20.67 10.84 18.56 13.01 18.72 Post Tax NPV @ 10 % 3.31 -1.19 1.86 -3.35 -1.16 -4.34 11.70 8.98 16.64 13.01 19.18 16.91 NPV @ 15 % -4.70 -9.48 -8.14 -13.82 -13.82 -18.04 3.34 0.26 4.88 0.91 4.10 1.12 IRR in % 11.69 9.49 10.71 8.92 9.67 8.93 18.24 15.20 18.44 15.54 17.11 15.51 Simple payback period (years) 7.39 8.76 7.88 9.13 8.46 9.13 5.08 6.02 5.10 5.97 5.44 5.98 payback period (years) @ 10% 15.63 Never 19.30 Never Never Never 7.60 9.93 7.60 9.75 8.36 9.78 payback period (years) @ 15% Never Never Never Never Never Never 10.94 21.86 10.87 19.26 13.16 19.45 Pre Tax Equity NPV @ 10 % 3.61 -0.87 2.24 -2.95 -0.69 -3.82 12.02 9.32 17.10 13.48 19.75 17.53 NPV @ 15 % -0.72 -4.68 -2.78 -7.44 -6.43 -9.71 6.17 3.67 8.72 5.46 9.39 7.08 IRR in % 13.84 9.29 11.74 8.22 9.61 8.24 31.29 22.32 31.38 22.96 27.55 22.89 Simple payback period (years) 10.19 13.97 12.60 14.63 13.64 14.62 3.10 4.62 3.14 4.55 3.61 4.57 Payback period (years) @ 10% 15.36 Never 18.71 Never Never Never 3.94 6.73 3.98 6.54 4.77 6.57 payback period (years) @ 15% Never Never Never Never Never Never 4.59 9.30 4.64 8.78 5.76 8.85 Post Tax Equity NPV @ 10 % 3.31 -1.19 1.86 -3.35 -1.16 -4.34 11.70 8.98 16.64 13.01 19.18 16.91 NPV @ 15 % -0.86 -4.83 -2.96 -7.63 -6.66 -9.96 6.02 3.52 8.50 5.24 9.12 6.78 IRR in % 13.59 9.01 11.48 7.94 9.34 7.96 31.17 22.14 31.26 22.77 27.39 22.70 Simple payback period (years) 10.24 14.11 12.69 14.80 13.77 14.79 3.10 4.62 3.14 4.55 3.61 4.57 payback period (years) @ 10% 15.63 Never 19.30 Never Never Never 3.94 6.73 3.98 6.54 4.77 6.57 payback period (years) @ 15% Never Never Never Never Never Never 4.59 9.30 4.64 8.78 5.76 8.85
  • 5. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 208 indicators are calculated in two cases i.e. (i) without subsidy (ii) with 30% capital subsidy if provided by government. 4. LCOE ANALYSIS Energy demand: The annual energy required by the village Mansarkheri is 638.25 MWh/year, 821.27 MWh/year and 1072.01 MWh/year in year 2015, 2019 and 2024 respectively. Plant capacity: To supply this energy demand SPV plants of capacity 395.34 kW, 508.71 kW, 664.02 kW and SPT plants of capacity 312.61 kW, 451.24 kW, and 641.88 kW are proposed and analysed in year 2015, 2019 and 2024 respectively. Capital cost of SPV plant: The capital cost of SPV power plant is 780.10 RS.Lakh/MW, 818.83 RS.Lakh/MW and 866.39 RS.Lakh/MW in year 2015, 2019 and 2024 respectively. Project cost of SPV plant: SPV power plant project cost for village Mansarkheri are calculated as 308.40 Rs.Lakh, 416.55 Rs.Lakh, 575.30 Rs.Lakh for without subsidy and 215.88 Rs.Lakh, 291.58 Rs.Lakh, 402.71 Rs.Lakh with 30% capital subsidy in year 2015, 2019 and 2024 respectively. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE): LCOE is calculated for SPV plant and SPT power plant by considering different discount rates i.e. 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12%, 13%, 14% and 15%. As the discount rate is increasing from 6% towards 15%, LCOE is also increasing in both the cases i.e. for SPV plants and SPT power plants in every year. Financial indicators: The IRR is found to be higher in case of pre-tax scenario as compared with the IRR in Post-tax scenario and the pay-back period is found to be lesser in case of pre-tax scenario as compared with the pay-back period in Post-tax scenario. Similarly IRR is found to be higher in case of pre-tax with equity scenario as compared with the IRR in Post-tax with equity scenario and the pay-back period is found to be lesser in case of pre-tax with equity scenario as compared with the pay-back period in Post-tax with equity scenario Capital cost of SPT plant: The capital cost of SPT power plant is 1195.88, RS.Lakh/MW, 1101.50 RS.Lakh/MW and 1012.03 RS.Lakh/MW in year 2015, 2019 and 2024 respectively. Project cost of SPT plant: SPT project cost for village Mansarkheri are calculated as 373.84 Rs.Lakh, 497.04 Rs.Lakh, 649.60 Rs.Lakh for without subsidy and 261.69 Rs.Lakh, 347.93 Rs.Lakh, 454.72 Rs.Lakh with 30% capital subsidy in year 2015, 2019 and 2024 respectively. Major findings: It is found that the capital cost, simple payback period, discounted payback periods at 10% and 15% discount rate and LCOE are less and IRR is more for SPV power plant as compared with SPT plant in every year and in all cases. REFERENCES [1]M. Chandel, G.D.Agrawal, S.Mathur and A.Mathur, Techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic power plant for garment zone of Jaipur city, Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 2 (2014) 1–7. [2]M. Chandel and G.D.Agrawal, Techno-economic analysis of solar parabolic trough type energy system for garment zone of Jaipur city, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 17(2013)104–109. [3] M. Shimy, Viability analysis of PV power plants in Egypt, Renewable Energy 34 (2009) 2187–2196 [4] Y. Hongxing, Z. Wei and L. Chengzhi, Optimal design and techno-economic analysis of a hybrid solar–wind power generation system, Applied Energy 86 (2009) 163–169. [5] Population census data of village Mansarkheri website, http://censusindia.gov.in/, accessed on March 2015. [6] Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No. SM/354/2013 (Suo-Motu). [7] Terms and Conditions for Tariff determination from Renewable Energy Sources Regulations, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, No.: L- 1/94/CERC/2011. [8]Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No. SM/353/2013 (Suo-Motu). 5. CONCLUSION In this study a village Mansarkheri is selected and the electricity demand of the village is estimated for years 2015, 2019 and 2024. Now to supply the electricity demands of year 2015, 2019 and 2024, SPV and SPT power plants are proposed. Following conclusions can be drawn from the study. Levelized cost of electricity and capital recovery factor at different-different discount rates has been calculated for SPV and SPT plants and tabulated in table-9 and Table- 10 respectively.
  • 6. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 11 | Nov -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 209 [9]Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No. SM/004/2015 (Suo-Motu). [10]Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No. SM/005/2015 (Suo-Motu). [11]Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No. 243/SM/2012 (Suo-Motu). [12] Solar Capital Cost Norm, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, Petition No. SM/354/2013 (Suo-Motu). [13] CERC revises capital cost of solar photovoltaic power plant, website, http://re-solve.in/, accessed on Jan 2015. BIOGRAPHIES Vikrram Singh Meena M.Tech- Renewable Energy Malaviya National Institute Of Technology, Jaipur, India B.Tech- Electrical Engineering Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India Dr. G. D. Agrawal Associate Professor Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Malaviya National Institute Of Technology, Jaipur, India Ph.D.-Energy Recovery From MSW M.Tech.-Thermal Engineering B.E.-Mechanical Engineering