ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 3 - Sir David King OECD Environment
ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 3 - Sir David King
“How national governments can deal with large-scale environmental risks and reconcile growth and environment objectives”.
Green growth can be seen as a way to pursue economic growth and development, while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and unsustainable natural resource use.
For the short term, green growth can transform the opportunity of the crisis to ensure a more sustainable economic recovery.
For the long term, it will promote new, greener sources of growth.
The OECD is working on policy recommendations to help governments achieve greener growth. The presentation gives an overview of the findings to date and the next steps. It mentions innovation, taxes, jobs and development issues, as well as how to measure progress towards greener growth.
A Korean approach on green growth by Jung Hwan Kim, Presidential Committee on Green Growth Republic of Korea at Climate Change and Development Roundtable, Ljubljana, Slovenia, May 2011
Towards cleaner energy - a collaborative world effortsSampe Purba
Presented in 3rd Asian Pollution Control and Sustainable Energy, May 2021
The bottom line of the messages are : Commitment to cleaner energy should be a real one, by taking into account each country's specific circumstances. One who polluted more, should take more responsibility. Carbon trading mechanism is somewhat more like a tactical trap by polluter producers and huge energy consumers at the expense of conserving O2 countries. This kind of platform may lead to vicious circle of atmosphere pollution
Experts highlight findings of a new report showing that while progress on climate action has been made in key sectors like power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and agriculture, it's not nearly enough to achieve a safer, climate-resilient future.
Presentation by Lini Wollenberg, Flagship Leader for CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture Food Security Low-Emissions Development flagship. The presentation was part of the Webinar on Soil carbon in the Nationally Determined Contributions hosted by CCAFS, the German Ministry of Food and Agriculture, and the 4 Per Mille Initiative and held on Earth Day, 22 April 2020.
"Rethinking Agriculture for the 21st Century: Climate change mitigation opportunities and challenges" was presented by Lini Wollenberg online at the KfW Webinar on May 28, 2020.
Integrated multi-component planning and implementation methodology guiding energy transitions at any level of government.
A dynamic and comprehensive methodology with multiple tools that analyzes the economic and social impacts of alternative technological pathways in the specific context of a municipality, country, or region. It explores existing clean energy business opportunities and recommends concrete policies and measures that improve the given investment environment.
This slide deck is part of the "Gender equality and mitigation: COP21 implications for implementing mitigation activities" webinar (February 5, 2016) of the IUCN Gender Equality for Climate Change Opportunities (GECCO) Energy webinar series. A recording and more information about the webinar can be found at http://genderandenvironment.org/resource/gecco-webinar-gender-equality-and-mitigation/.
Presented by Lini Wollenberg, CCAFS Low Emissions Development, at the GIZ expert meeting on How to realize the potential of soil carbon benefits? Practical pathways for achieving impact on 28 April 2020.
ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 3 - Sir David King OECD Environment
ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Session 3 - Sir David King
“How national governments can deal with large-scale environmental risks and reconcile growth and environment objectives”.
Green growth can be seen as a way to pursue economic growth and development, while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and unsustainable natural resource use.
For the short term, green growth can transform the opportunity of the crisis to ensure a more sustainable economic recovery.
For the long term, it will promote new, greener sources of growth.
The OECD is working on policy recommendations to help governments achieve greener growth. The presentation gives an overview of the findings to date and the next steps. It mentions innovation, taxes, jobs and development issues, as well as how to measure progress towards greener growth.
A Korean approach on green growth by Jung Hwan Kim, Presidential Committee on Green Growth Republic of Korea at Climate Change and Development Roundtable, Ljubljana, Slovenia, May 2011
Towards cleaner energy - a collaborative world effortsSampe Purba
Presented in 3rd Asian Pollution Control and Sustainable Energy, May 2021
The bottom line of the messages are : Commitment to cleaner energy should be a real one, by taking into account each country's specific circumstances. One who polluted more, should take more responsibility. Carbon trading mechanism is somewhat more like a tactical trap by polluter producers and huge energy consumers at the expense of conserving O2 countries. This kind of platform may lead to vicious circle of atmosphere pollution
Experts highlight findings of a new report showing that while progress on climate action has been made in key sectors like power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and agriculture, it's not nearly enough to achieve a safer, climate-resilient future.
Presentation by Lini Wollenberg, Flagship Leader for CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture Food Security Low-Emissions Development flagship. The presentation was part of the Webinar on Soil carbon in the Nationally Determined Contributions hosted by CCAFS, the German Ministry of Food and Agriculture, and the 4 Per Mille Initiative and held on Earth Day, 22 April 2020.
"Rethinking Agriculture for the 21st Century: Climate change mitigation opportunities and challenges" was presented by Lini Wollenberg online at the KfW Webinar on May 28, 2020.
Integrated multi-component planning and implementation methodology guiding energy transitions at any level of government.
A dynamic and comprehensive methodology with multiple tools that analyzes the economic and social impacts of alternative technological pathways in the specific context of a municipality, country, or region. It explores existing clean energy business opportunities and recommends concrete policies and measures that improve the given investment environment.
This slide deck is part of the "Gender equality and mitigation: COP21 implications for implementing mitigation activities" webinar (February 5, 2016) of the IUCN Gender Equality for Climate Change Opportunities (GECCO) Energy webinar series. A recording and more information about the webinar can be found at http://genderandenvironment.org/resource/gecco-webinar-gender-equality-and-mitigation/.
Presented by Lini Wollenberg, CCAFS Low Emissions Development, at the GIZ expert meeting on How to realize the potential of soil carbon benefits? Practical pathways for achieving impact on 28 April 2020.
Presentation by EC - EU approach to mainstreaming of biodiversityOECD Environment
Presentation by Bart Missnne at OECD side-event ‘Mainstreaming Biodiversity and Development’ at CBD COP 13: EU approach to Mainstreaming of biodiversity
and estimating related expenditure
Why and how do we evaluate ecosystems, Nature is the source of much value to us every day, and yet it mostly bypasses markets, escapes pricing and defies valuation. This lack of valuation is an underlying cause for ecological degradation and loss of biodiversity. Globally, efforts are being made to assess impact of conservation or degradation of ecological resources and a new term Green Gross Domestic Product (GGDP) has also been coined to reflect the same.
SPARK Lecture at IUCAA in Pune.
Can perpetual growth be created in a closed system? Can technology, politics or markets make perpetual growth happen? What happens when growth is unconstrained? Can growth be uneconomic? Is the pursuit of growth as an end the sign of a purposeless society?
Colloqui di Martina Franca 2014 "Quale Economia per quale Benessere" - Pre-conditions and constraints on the way towards a green industrial revolution.
World Bank presentation of Changing Wealth of Nations to IFAD in Rome on July 4, 2011. Seminar delivered by Gianni Ruta, Senior Environmental Economist, Environment Department, WB, moderated by Kevin Cleaver, Associate Vice President, IFAD.
Presentación de Zach Friedman, director de programas del “Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies”. Universidad de Berkeley. Para la Conferencia "Tecnología e Innovación para el Desarrollo" #itdUPM2015
This looks at the likely economic challenges for sustainable agriculture in Europe and the UK over the next decade or so, and makes suggestions for business approaches and policy which could help the sector to respond positively
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...STEPS Centre
Achim Steiner, incoming UNDP director, gave the STEPS Annual lecture at the University of Sussex on 15 May 2017. Find out more: https://steps-centre.org/event/steps-annual-lecture-achim-steiner/
OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...OECD Environment
Water is critical for meeting commitments of the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Our economies rely on water, with recent estimates putting the economic value of water and freshwater ecosystems at USD 58 trillion - equivalent to 60% of global GDP. At the same time, water related risks are increasing in frequency and scale in the context of climate change.
How are investments shaping our economies and societies exposure to water risk? What role can the financial system play in supporting water security? And how can increased understanding of how finance both impacts and depends on water resources spur action towards greater water security?
This OECD Green Talks LIVE on Tuesday 14 May 2024 from 15:00 to 16:00 CEST discussed the evolving landscape for assessing water risks to the financial system.
OECD Policy Analyst Lylah Davies presented key findings and recommendations from recent OECD work on assessing the financial materiality of water-related risks, including the recently published paper “Watered down? Investigating the financial materiality of water-related risks” and was joined by experts to discuss relevant initiatives underway.
Detlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdfOECD Environment
This OECD technical workshop will bring together leading experts on economic, biophysical, and integrated assessment modelling of the interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. The workshop will take stock of ongoing modelling efforts to develop quantitative pathways to study the drivers and impacts of the triple planetary crisis, and the policies to address it. The aim is to identify robust modelling approaches to inform the work for the upcoming OECD Environmental Outlook.
Thomas Hertel- Integrated Policies for the Triple Planetary Crisis.pdfOECD Environment
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Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...OECD Environment
This OECD technical workshop will bring together leading experts on economic, biophysical, and integrated assessment modelling of the interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. The workshop will take stock of ongoing modelling efforts to develop quantitative pathways to study the drivers and impacts of the triple planetary crisis, and the policies to address it. The aim is to identify robust modelling approaches to inform the work for the upcoming OECD Environmental Outlook.
Astrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdfOECD Environment
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Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...OECD Environment
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Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...OECD Environment
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Laurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdfOECD Environment
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This OECD technical workshop will bring together leading experts on economic, biophysical, and integrated assessment modelling of the interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. The workshop will take stock of ongoing modelling efforts to develop quantitative pathways to study the drivers and impacts of the triple planetary crisis, and the policies to address it. The aim is to identify robust modelling approaches to inform the work for the upcoming OECD Environmental Outlook.
HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...OECD Environment
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Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...OECD Environment
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CLE Contribution on the Assessment of Innovative Biochemicals in the EU Statu...OECD Environment
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The seminar featured presentations from various perspectives, including industry, regulatory bodies, and academia. Topics included the history and principles of Problem Formulation, industry perspectives on Problem Formulation and how it is applied internally for microbial pesticides, regulatory approaches, and specific case studies. The seminar provided an overview of the challenges, considerations, and potential solutions in harmonising Problem Formulation for biopesticide risk assessment. It emphasised the need for collaboration and discussion to develop Problem Formulation guidance for biopesticides.
Additional Considerations for Pesticide Formulations Containing Microbial Pes...OECD Environment
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Role of genome sequencing (WGS) in microbial biopesticides safety assessment ...OECD Environment
The seminar on Problem Formulation for the Risk Assessment of Biopesticides stemmed from a previous CRP-sponsored event on Innovating Microbial Pesticide Testing that identified the need for an overarching guidance document to determine when in vivo tests are necessary. Problem Formulation, a common practice in pesticide risk assessment, was highlighted as a useful approach for addressing uncertainties in data requirements for biopesticides.
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How to Identify and Quantify Mixtures What is Essential to Know for Risk Asse...OECD Environment
The seminar on Problem Formulation for the Risk Assessment of Biopesticides stemmed from a previous CRP-sponsored event on Innovating Microbial Pesticide Testing that identified the need for an overarching guidance document to determine when in vivo tests are necessary. Problem Formulation, a common practice in pesticide risk assessment, was highlighted as a useful approach for addressing uncertainties in data requirements for biopesticides.
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APVMA outcome-focussed approach to data requirements to support registration ...OECD Environment
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Problem formulation for environmental risk assessment – Finnish case study: ...OECD Environment
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This presentation by Morris Kleiner (University of Minnesota), was made during the discussion “Competition and Regulation in Professions and Occupations” held at the Working Party No. 2 on Competition and Regulation on 10 June 2024. More papers and presentations on the topic can be found out at oe.cd/crps.
This presentation was uploaded with the author’s consent.
0x01 - Newton's Third Law: Static vs. Dynamic AbusersOWASP Beja
f you offer a service on the web, odds are that someone will abuse it. Be it an API, a SaaS, a PaaS, or even a static website, someone somewhere will try to figure out a way to use it to their own needs. In this talk we'll compare measures that are effective against static attackers and how to battle a dynamic attacker who adapts to your counter-measures.
About the Speaker
===============
Diogo Sousa, Engineering Manager @ Canonical
An opinionated individual with an interest in cryptography and its intersection with secure software development.
Have you ever wondered how search works while visiting an e-commerce site, internal website, or searching through other types of online resources? Look no further than this informative session on the ways that taxonomies help end-users navigate the internet! Hear from taxonomists and other information professionals who have first-hand experience creating and working with taxonomies that aid in navigation, search, and discovery across a range of disciplines.
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This presentation, created by Syed Faiz ul Hassan, explores the profound influence of media on public perception and behavior. It delves into the evolution of media from oral traditions to modern digital and social media platforms. Key topics include the role of media in information propagation, socialization, crisis awareness, globalization, and education. The presentation also examines media influence through agenda setting, propaganda, and manipulative techniques used by advertisers and marketers. Furthermore, it highlights the impact of surveillance enabled by media technologies on personal behavior and preferences. Through this comprehensive overview, the presentation aims to shed light on how media shapes collective consciousness and public opinion.
Sharpen existing tools or get a new toolbox? Contemporary cluster initiatives...Orkestra
UIIN Conference, Madrid, 27-29 May 2024
James Wilson, Orkestra and Deusto Business School
Emily Wise, Lund University
Madeline Smith, The Glasgow School of Art
Sharpen existing tools or get a new toolbox? Contemporary cluster initiatives...
ENV GLOBAL FORUM OCT 2016 - Opening Session - A. Markandya
1. Natural Capital and Economic Growth:
Past Evidence and Future Prospects
Anil Markandya
Basque Centre for Climate Change and Bath University
October 2016
2. The Questions
1. How have environmental services or natural capital contributed to
growth in the past?
2. How will they contribute to growth in the future?
3. More effort so far on 2. than on 1!
4. In answering questions 1) and 2), how do we measure economic
growth?
5. The aim is to understand what quantitative analysis of these links
tells us and where the gaps are.
2
3. The Historic Picture?
• The main work on links between growth and environmental
quality/natural capital is under the following categories:
• The Environmental Kuznets Curve
• Weak and Strong Sustainability (can losses of natural capital be compensated
by accumulation of human and physical capital?)
• Has environmental regulation, protecting natural capital and ecosystems had
an effect on economic growth?
• The resource curse (countries with high endowments of natural capital often
perform worse in terms of growth and development than countries with less
endowments).
3
4. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
• Growth creates the resources that allow for a greater protection of
the environment. This is the so-called EKC, which shows a “U” shaped
relationship between environmental quality and level of
development. Huge literature.
• Applies well to some pollutants such SO2, NOx, River water quality
• Does not apply to GHG emissions and some toxic pollutants
• Loss of some biodiversity or ecosystems during development are
irreplaceable.
• EKC does not inform us about the contribution of natural capital or
ecosystems to the growth process.
• Cross section relation does not apply for historic experience,
which is a function of factors influencing scale, composition and
technique of production.
4
5. Weak and Strong Sustainability
• Weak sustainability argues that a loss of natural capital need
not compromise growth if it is replaced by other forms of
capital (physical and human).
• Strong sustainability takes the view that natural capital is not
so easily substituted and its loss could compromise growth.
• Production function estimates of elasticity of substitution
between different forms of capital turn out quite high,
favouring a weak sustainability vision.
• But no one can argue that loss of key forms of natural capital
would be detrimental to economic performance.
5
6. Weak and Strong Sustainability
• Natural capital is considered important -- an interim conclusion
for the UK by the natural capital committee is that economic
prospects could be diminished as a result of declining natural
capital.
• Unfortunately there is very little historic evidence that the loss of
natural capital has compromised economic growth. This is an
area that needs further research.
• One pathway is the link between loss of natural capital and
human health. Mortality and morbidity-related losses due to air
pollution cause a loss of GDP – estimate for the UK is losses from
1990 have caused a 4% lower GDP by 2010.
6
7. Loss of Biomes: 1900-2000 (000 ha)
7
Ice and tundra -18,158 -3,200 0 0 -11,629 -1,627 -19,701 -54,316 -6%
Grassland and steppe -174,658 -34,955 -33,475 -46,282 -58,187 -26,498 -76,689 -450,744 -27%
Scrubland and savanna -71,234 -135,528 -13,465 -234,860 0 -119,254 -118 -574,459 -26%
Borealforests -118,677 -4,062 0 0 -171,040 -3,478 -35,195 -332,452 -16%
Temperate forests -278,755 -82,342 0 -11,238 -41,840 -33,326 -79,433 -526,934 -45%
Tropicalforests -13,590 -191,819 0 -76,072 0 -133,360 -1,579 -416,421 -25%
Desert -42,642 -3,905 -49,790 -44,567 -2,793 -22,872 -9,321 -175,890 -8%
Total -717,715 -455,812 -96,729 -413,019 -285,489 -340,414 -222,036 -2,531,216
% on 1900levels -23% -26% -9% -19% -14% -40% -24% -21%
Total % on 1900
levels
Biome OECD CSAM
MEA_
NAFR
SAFR
RUS_
CASIA
SASIA CHN
Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Areas are adjusted for the quality of biodiversity, measured in terms of mean
species abundance
8. Biome Losses and GDP Change: Links Unclear
8
OECD
CSAM
MENA
SSA
FORMER USSR
S.ASIA
CHINA
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
3500%
4000%
4500%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
%ChangeinGDP
% Loss in MSA
Growth in GDP and Loss of MSA: 1900-2000
9. Natural Capital Is More Important for Low
Income Countries But Estimates are Uncertain
9
Country
Produced
Capital
Sub-Soil
Resources
Renewable
NR Intangible Total
Produced
Capital
Sub-Soil
Resources
Renewable
NR Human Total
Brazil 10,941 1,938 5,723 80,023 98,624 13,280 2,055 25,631 42,795 83,761
Germany 77,924 305 4,739 480,314 563,283 102,564 16,353 1,873 255,576 376,366
Kenya 985 1 1,551 4,963 7,499 1,224 0 1,288 6,611 9,122
Kazakhstan n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 17,417 56,699 782 23,587 98,485
Morocco 3,897 120 1,700 20,339 26,060 5,415 3 1,890 20,927 28,235
World Bank Estimates UN Estimates
Country
Produced
Capital
Sub-Soil
Resources
Renewable
NR Intangible Total
Produced
Capital
Sub-Soil
Resources
Renewable
NR Human Total
Brazil 11% 2% 6% 81% 100% 16% 2% 31% 51% 100%
Germany 14% 0% 1% 85% 100% 27% 4% 0% 68% 100%
Kenya 13% 0% 21% 66% 100% 13% 0% 14% 72% 100%
Kazakhstan n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 18% 58% 1% 24% 100%
Morocco 15% 0% 7% 78% 100% 19% 0% 7% 74% 100%
10. Environmental Regulation and Economic Growth
• In general fears that stricter regulation to protect the environment and
natural capital may reduce economic performance have been overstated.
Even some evidence that they may improve performance by leading to
more innovation (Porter Hypothesis).
• International competitiveness effects of environmental measures have
mostly been small:
• A lot of trade is between countries all affected by same measures
• Except for very highly polluting industries costs of compliance are small
• Relocation of industry to lower level environmental standard countries has been
relatively rare (although some evidence for this).
• Macroeconomic models based on econometric analysis find lower
competitiveness effects or even negligible effects when revenues are
recycled via reduction in other taxes. (OECD, 1997)
10
12. The Resource Curse
• The higher the share of natural capital in total, the lower is the
growth performance.
• Holds quite widely (R2 0.6) but not universally.
• Compare Botswana and Sierra Leone, both heavily dependent on
diamond exports. From 1965 to 1998 Botswana had the highest per
capita growth, while Sierra Leone had negative growth and was
poorest country in the world in 1998.
• Debate is about the causes – some argue it is explained by quality of
institutions, which are determined by history (Acemoglu et al., 2001).
Others claim natural resource dependence affects macroeconomic
outcomes as well as institutions (Glyfason and Zoega, 2006).
12
14. The Resource Curse
• Macroeconomic pathways and policies leading to lower growth for
resource abundant countries include:
• Fix factor drag (NRs are a fixed factor of production and run into diminishing returns).
• Rent seeking behaviour by producers.
• “Dutch disease” – NR exports drive up real exchange rate.
• NR abundance reduces incentives to accumulate human capital due to high non-
wage income.
• NR abundance can crowd out social capital (Sachs and Warner, 1999) and lower
investment in physical capital (Glyfason and Zoega, 2006).
• Countries that overcome these problems focus on ensuring transparency in
public finances and building strong institutions with a role for civil society.
14
15. The Picture Looking Forward….
•Effects of climate change on GDP and GDP Growth.
•Medium term – to mid 21st century
•Longer term – to end 21st century
•Effects of loss of natural capital more widely on GDP
growth.
•Limits to Growth literature
•Literature on loss of ESS
15
16. Estimates of Economic Costs
• OECD CIRCLE project and many others have looked at the economic
effects of climate change.
• The economic costs of climate change to 2050-2060 are small.
• Globally they amount to about 2% of GDP, although they vary quite a
lot by region, with South Asia and SS Africa having the highest losses.
• In terms of GDP per capita and reduction in growth, these figures are
even smaller.
• More discussion of this in Session 3.
16
17. Key Messages from the Impact Analysis
• Quantified damages to 2060 are modest if the growth story is true.
• But lack of action to mitigate emissions locks in further increases in
temperature beyond 2060 that are not so modest.
• And they have a large uncertainty range. At the upper end of the
potential increase modern economies may not function.
• And the changes are irreversible!
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18. Is Long Term Growth Possible Given Loss of
Natural Capital?
• There are doubts whether we can maintain economic growth
indefinitely:
• It has only been our experience for the last 200 years of our civilization (prior
to that living standards were cyclical but with no growth)
• Available non-renewable resources and capacities of ecosystems place a limit
to growth.
• Limits to Growth literature has argued that even 50 years or so of
continued growth is not feasible.
• Projections of collapse in economic growth made in the 1970s by the
Limits to Growth Modellers turned out to be incorrect.
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19. Is Long Term Growth Possible Given Loss of
Natural Capital?
• These models by Meadows et al. have been criticised on the grounds
that they assume continued trends in the rate of use of fixed
resources, whereas growth is complex and multi-dimensional and can
adapt to changes in scarcity.
• An important indicator of scarcity is the price of something. In terms
of natural resources, prices have not been rising for most resources
(falling costs of exploitation, new discoveries etc…).
• Critics argue that prices are not good indicators of future scarcity.
• The message that growth has to be sensitive to trends in scarcity is
well taken.
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20. Measuring the Growth of What?
• GDP is a flawed measure of wellbeing.
• Specifically it excludes:
• Costs of environmental pollution (recent OECD study shows outdoor air
pollution alone causes 6-9 million premature deaths and costs about 1% of
GDP).
• Non-valued ESS for which no market transactions exist.
• Over time the trends in these costs is changing and so a GDP adjusted
for these factors will differ from that of conventional GDP.
• Most evidence points to increasing loss of non-valued ESS (e.g. marine and
coastal ESS estimated to have declined by 18% between 1997 and 2011).
• Environmental pollution is declining in some countries (developed) but rising
in others (developing and emerging).
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21. Growth of What?
• Work in this area suggests it may be better to focus on capital rather than
GDP – i.e. to measure changes in the stock of all kinds of capital over time.
• This can also be tracked through changes in net savings of capital (i.e.
changes in the stock of capital after depreciation and loss of natural
capital). Sometimes referred to as Genuine Savings or Net Savings.
• Depending on how strongly you take the view of weak versus strong
sustainability you may wish to track total capital and net savings or the
components of the stock.
• Data show that changes in capital net of depreciation and losses often
show a more negative trend than gross capital formation.
• This is especially true for NR dependent developing countries, but also for
developed countries.
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22. Net Savings by Region: Growth in MENA and
SSA may not be sustainable
30
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1970 1980 1990 2000
East Asia & Pacific
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
%GNI
Year
23. Net Savings in UK: 1975-2010: Tangible
wealth changes go negative after 2008
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Gross
savings
rates
during this
time were
just under
17%
24. Concluding Thoughts
• The historic data gives little information on how natural capital has
contributed to growth in the past. More work is needed on this.
• Natural capital is an important component of wealth (share is bigger
in developing countries) but a higher share can lead to lower growth,
especially where it is in the form of mineral wealth. It needs
transparency in rent and public finance management and strong
accountable institutions to avoid that.
• Strong environmental regulations do not in general compromise
conventional growth and could enhance ‘correct’ measures of
growth.
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25. Concluding Thoughts
• Forward looking analysis that predicted collapse in economic growth due
to loss of natural capital has been proved wrong.
• Natural capital and other forms of capital seem to be more substitutable
than those who argue about limits to growth believe.
• But losses of ecosystems (especially water-related) in key areas could lead
to severe economic losses.
• Projections of the impacts of climate change predict small overall economic
losses at the global level to the middle of this century, with some
developing countries having larger losses.
• But losses by the end of this century could be quite significant, depending
on what climate control ambition is realised. There is a lot of uncertainty
about this.
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26. Concluding Thoughts
• We need to rethink our growth indicator. Conventional GDP is not a
good measure of well being, nor is growth in that GDP a good
measure of sustainable growth.
• Net capital formation, taking account of losses of natural capital
indicate a number countries that do not have sustainable growth.
• More work is needed to measure natural capital in all forms, including
that which supports complex biological and economic systems.
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