This OECD technical workshop will bring together leading experts on economic, biophysical, and integrated assessment modelling of the interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. The workshop will take stock of ongoing modelling efforts to develop quantitative pathways to study the drivers and impacts of the triple planetary crisis, and the policies to address it. The aim is to identify robust modelling approaches to inform the work for the upcoming OECD Environmental Outlook.
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Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the GAINS model.pdf
1. Implementing nitrogen pollution control
pathways in the GAINS model
Wilfried Winiwarter
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop
«Modelling The Triple Planetary Crisis: Impacts And Policies»
Paris, February 19, 2024
2. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Overview
2
• The “nitrogen cascade” representing the fate of reactive N
compounds (Nr) in the environment
• The GAINS model and multiple Nr impacts
• Scenarios of different policy ambition:
Nr scenarios based on the RCP/SSP framework
• Conclusions for environmental policy
4. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Environmental reactive nitrogen
• Multiple causes
• Multiple effects
• Many interactions
→ cause-effect relationships are
difficult to establish
Sutton
et
al.,
ENA
2011
4
6. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
GAINS schematic representations
Agriculture
Energy use
Transport
Solvents,
fuels, industry
Other activities
NH3 control
& costs
SO2 control
& costs
VOC control
& costs
PM control
& costs
NOx control
& costs
GHG control
& costs
NH3 emissions
SO2 emissions
NOx emissions
NH3 dispersion
Critical loads
(acidification)
S dispersion
VOC emissions
Primary PM
emissions
GHG emissions
NOx dispersion
O3 formation
Secondary PM
formation
Primary PM
dispersion
GHG dispersion
Critical levels
for ozone
PM exposure
of population
Global warming
Economic
activities
Emission
control policies
Targets
Emission
control costs
Effects
Ozone exposure
of population
Critical levels
(ammonia)
NOx / VOC
control & costs
Critical loads
(eutrophication)
6
7. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Data sources
7
GAINS takes advantage of the developments within the UN-ECE
(TFRN, TFEIP) and UNFCCC to improve emission & cost datasets
• EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook
• 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
• Expert information from national consultations
• Own developments and contributions to research projects
8. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen Budgets
8
http://www.clrtap-tfrn.org/epnb
9. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
DairyMix project
9
• European project (under ERA-NET cofund mechanism)
• Investigating sustainable circular mixed farming systems for
dairy production
• Data collection from 31 case study farms across Europe
• Develop concepts for improved C and N circularity
• 3-pillar sustainability approach (multicriteria analysis)
• Project coordinated by ATB, Germany, partners on national funds
10. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Air pollution priorities
• EU National Emission Ceilings Directive
• Exceedances for NOx, NH3 emissions
• To identify characteristic flows
• Benchmark with regions/countries
• Scenarios and remediation
• Benefits for NH3 targeted measures
Gu
et
al.,
Science,
2021
10
Liu et al., Nat.Comm., 2023
12. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Greenhouse gas budget (N2O)
• Stable and effective greenhouse gas
(GWP about 300 times that of CO2)
• Sources:
• Agriculture (fertilized soils)
• Combustion
• Industry
• Wastewater treatment
Tian
et
al.,
Nature,
2020
12
13. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Sectoral potential
13
Industry, global Mineral fertilizer induced N2O
Davidson and Winiwarter, 2023
Winiwarter et al., N2024
Winiwarter et al., 2018
14. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen scenario
concept
14
Kanter
et
al.,
2020
2/19/2024
15. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen in the SSP-RCP framework
15
SSP1 SSP2 SSP5
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP8.5
low ambition
low ambition
med ambition
high ambition
high ambition
high ambition
Kanter et al., 2020
16. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
International Nitrogen Assessment
(for release in 2024)
16
Vieno, van Dingenen et al., 2024
Brownlie et al., 2024
Key actions for better nitrogen management
17. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Policy relevant take-home messages
17
• The “nitrogen lense” allows to integrate across different
policy fields
• Targeted measures are available to reduce flows of Nr
• Tools and indicators have been developed i.a. in the INMS
project allowing to quantify, to benchmark, and to assess given
policy targets
• Pollution scenarios need to extend from climate pathways,
require own narrative
• Overarching goal of “halving N waste” has been established
(possibly at UNEA-6)
18. Some relevant web resources …
gains.iiasa.ac.at
www.inms.international
www.clrtap-tfrn.org/epnb
www.globalcarbonproject.org