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Implementing nitrogen pollution control
pathways in the GAINS model
Wilfried Winiwarter
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop
«Modelling The Triple Planetary Crisis: Impacts And Policies»
Paris, February 19, 2024
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Overview
2
• The “nitrogen cascade” representing the fate of reactive N
compounds (Nr) in the environment
• The GAINS model and multiple Nr impacts
• Scenarios of different policy ambition:
Nr scenarios based on the RCP/SSP framework
• Conclusions for environmental policy
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
“The Nitrogen Cascade”
3
Sutton
et
al.,
ENA
2011
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Environmental reactive nitrogen
• Multiple causes
• Multiple effects
• Many interactions
→ cause-effect relationships are
difficult to establish
Sutton
et
al.,
ENA
2011
4
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
IIASA‘s GAINS model
5
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
GAINS schematic representations
Agriculture
Energy use
Transport
Solvents,
fuels, industry
Other activities
NH3 control
& costs
SO2 control
& costs
VOC control
& costs
PM control
& costs
NOx control
& costs
GHG control
& costs
NH3 emissions
SO2 emissions
NOx emissions
NH3 dispersion
Critical loads
(acidification)
S dispersion
VOC emissions
Primary PM
emissions
GHG emissions
NOx dispersion
O3 formation
Secondary PM
formation
Primary PM
dispersion
GHG dispersion
Critical levels
for ozone
PM exposure
of population
Global warming
Economic
activities
Emission
control policies
Targets
Emission
control costs
Effects
Ozone exposure
of population
Critical levels
(ammonia)
NOx / VOC
control & costs
Critical loads
(eutrophication)
6
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Data sources
7
GAINS takes advantage of the developments within the UN-ECE
(TFRN, TFEIP) and UNFCCC to improve emission & cost datasets
• EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook
• 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
• Expert information from national consultations
• Own developments and contributions to research projects
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen Budgets
8
http://www.clrtap-tfrn.org/epnb
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
DairyMix project
9
• European project (under ERA-NET cofund mechanism)
• Investigating sustainable circular mixed farming systems for
dairy production
• Data collection from 31 case study farms across Europe
• Develop concepts for improved C and N circularity
• 3-pillar sustainability approach (multicriteria analysis)
• Project coordinated by ATB, Germany, partners on national funds
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Air pollution priorities
• EU National Emission Ceilings Directive
• Exceedances for NOx, NH3 emissions
• To identify characteristic flows
• Benchmark with regions/countries
• Scenarios and remediation
• Benefits for NH3 targeted measures
Gu
et
al.,
Science,
2021
10
Liu et al., Nat.Comm., 2023
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Deep emission reductions
11
Amann
et
al.,
2020
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Greenhouse gas budget (N2O)
• Stable and effective greenhouse gas
(GWP about 300 times that of CO2)
• Sources:
• Agriculture (fertilized soils)
• Combustion
• Industry
• Wastewater treatment
Tian
et
al.,
Nature,
2020
12
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Sectoral potential
13
Industry, global Mineral fertilizer induced N2O
Davidson and Winiwarter, 2023
Winiwarter et al., N2024
Winiwarter et al., 2018
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen scenario
concept
14
Kanter
et
al.,
2020
2/19/2024
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen in the SSP-RCP framework
15
SSP1 SSP2 SSP5
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP8.5
low ambition
low ambition
med ambition
high ambition
high ambition
high ambition
Kanter et al., 2020
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
International Nitrogen Assessment
(for release in 2024)
16
Vieno, van Dingenen et al., 2024
Brownlie et al., 2024
Key actions for better nitrogen management
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Policy relevant take-home messages
17
• The “nitrogen lense” allows to integrate across different
policy fields
• Targeted measures are available to reduce flows of Nr
• Tools and indicators have been developed i.a. in the INMS
project allowing to quantify, to benchmark, and to assess given
policy targets
• Pollution scenarios need to extend from climate pathways,
require own narrative
• Overarching goal of “halving N waste” has been established
(possibly at UNEA-6)
Some relevant web resources …
gains.iiasa.ac.at
www.inms.international
www.clrtap-tfrn.org/epnb
www.globalcarbonproject.org

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Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the GAINS model.pdf

  • 1. Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the GAINS model Wilfried Winiwarter OECD Environmental Outlook workshop «Modelling The Triple Planetary Crisis: Impacts And Policies» Paris, February 19, 2024
  • 2. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Overview 2 • The “nitrogen cascade” representing the fate of reactive N compounds (Nr) in the environment • The GAINS model and multiple Nr impacts • Scenarios of different policy ambition: Nr scenarios based on the RCP/SSP framework • Conclusions for environmental policy
  • 3. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 “The Nitrogen Cascade” 3 Sutton et al., ENA 2011
  • 4. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Environmental reactive nitrogen • Multiple causes • Multiple effects • Many interactions → cause-effect relationships are difficult to establish Sutton et al., ENA 2011 4
  • 5. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 IIASA‘s GAINS model 5
  • 6. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 GAINS schematic representations Agriculture Energy use Transport Solvents, fuels, industry Other activities NH3 control & costs SO2 control & costs VOC control & costs PM control & costs NOx control & costs GHG control & costs NH3 emissions SO2 emissions NOx emissions NH3 dispersion Critical loads (acidification) S dispersion VOC emissions Primary PM emissions GHG emissions NOx dispersion O3 formation Secondary PM formation Primary PM dispersion GHG dispersion Critical levels for ozone PM exposure of population Global warming Economic activities Emission control policies Targets Emission control costs Effects Ozone exposure of population Critical levels (ammonia) NOx / VOC control & costs Critical loads (eutrophication) 6
  • 7. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Data sources 7 GAINS takes advantage of the developments within the UN-ECE (TFRN, TFEIP) and UNFCCC to improve emission & cost datasets • EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook • 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories • Expert information from national consultations • Own developments and contributions to research projects
  • 8. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Nitrogen Budgets 8 http://www.clrtap-tfrn.org/epnb
  • 9. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 DairyMix project 9 • European project (under ERA-NET cofund mechanism) • Investigating sustainable circular mixed farming systems for dairy production • Data collection from 31 case study farms across Europe • Develop concepts for improved C and N circularity • 3-pillar sustainability approach (multicriteria analysis) • Project coordinated by ATB, Germany, partners on national funds
  • 10. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Air pollution priorities • EU National Emission Ceilings Directive • Exceedances for NOx, NH3 emissions • To identify characteristic flows • Benchmark with regions/countries • Scenarios and remediation • Benefits for NH3 targeted measures Gu et al., Science, 2021 10 Liu et al., Nat.Comm., 2023
  • 11. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Deep emission reductions 11 Amann et al., 2020
  • 12. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Greenhouse gas budget (N2O) • Stable and effective greenhouse gas (GWP about 300 times that of CO2) • Sources: • Agriculture (fertilized soils) • Combustion • Industry • Wastewater treatment Tian et al., Nature, 2020 12
  • 13. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Sectoral potential 13 Industry, global Mineral fertilizer induced N2O Davidson and Winiwarter, 2023 Winiwarter et al., N2024 Winiwarter et al., 2018
  • 14. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Nitrogen scenario concept 14 Kanter et al., 2020 2/19/2024
  • 15. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Nitrogen in the SSP-RCP framework 15 SSP1 SSP2 SSP5 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP8.5 low ambition low ambition med ambition high ambition high ambition high ambition Kanter et al., 2020
  • 16. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 International Nitrogen Assessment (for release in 2024) 16 Vieno, van Dingenen et al., 2024 Brownlie et al., 2024 Key actions for better nitrogen management
  • 17. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024 Policy relevant take-home messages 17 • The “nitrogen lense” allows to integrate across different policy fields • Targeted measures are available to reduce flows of Nr • Tools and indicators have been developed i.a. in the INMS project allowing to quantify, to benchmark, and to assess given policy targets • Pollution scenarios need to extend from climate pathways, require own narrative • Overarching goal of “halving N waste” has been established (possibly at UNEA-6)
  • 18. Some relevant web resources … gains.iiasa.ac.at www.inms.international www.clrtap-tfrn.org/epnb www.globalcarbonproject.org