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Economic costs of environmental degradation and climate change
1. The economic consequences
of environmental degradation
Joint work with Elisa Lanzi, Jean Chateau and others
Paris, 24 October 2016
Rob Dellink
OECD Environment Directorate
2. CIRCLE: Costs of Inaction and Resource scarcity:
Consequences for Long-term Economic growth
Calculating the costs of inaction:
– Quantify how changes in environmental quality,
climate change, natural resources affect the
economy, and prospects for long-term growth
Regional and sectoral quantitative approach
where possible, coupled with more general
insights where needed
– Market impacts: production function approach
– Non-market impacts: valuation approach 2
The OECD CIRCLE project
3. CIRCLE methodology
3
Economic model
Projects sectoral and regional
economic activity, and projects
corresponding environmental
pressure (such as emissions)
Environmental model
Links environmental pressure to
indicators of the state of the
environment (such as
temperature change, pollutant
concentrations, ...)
Impact models
Links environmental indicators to
(sectoral) biophysical impacts
(such as changes in crop yields
or incidence of illness)
Assessment of economic
consequences
Links biophysical impacts to
changes in economic variables
(such as changes in productivity of
production factors)
4. CIRCLE project themes
Climate change
Air pollution
Land-water-energy nexus
Water
Biodiversity and ecosystems
Resource scarcity
4
Report published in November 2015
Report published in June 2016
Report to be published early 2017
Review paper published in 2016
Review paper published in 2015
Report on critical materials published in 2015;
further work planned for the next biennium
5.
6. 6
Regional cost of selected climate
impacts
Uncertainty ranges in 2060
dueto uncertainty in ECS
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
-South & South East Asia
OECD Pacific
Rest of Europe & Asia
OECD Europe
Latin America
OECD America
World
-Sub Saharan Africa
Middle East & North Africa
Source: OECD (2016), The Economic Consequences of Climate Change
7. 7
Global importance of different
impacts
Global GDP loss:
2035: 0.3-1.0%
Source: OECD (2016), The Economic Consequences of Climate Change
Agriculture
Coastal
Zones
Energy
Demand
Extreme
Precipitation
Events
Health
Tourism
Demand
Global damages 2060
Agriculture
Coastal
Zones
Energy
Demand
Extreme
Precipitation
Events
Health
Tourism
Demand
Global damages 2035
2060: 1.0-3.3%
8. 8
Long-term damages
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Likely uncertainty range - central projection until 2100
Likely uncertainty range - central projection until 2060
Central projection until 2100
Central projection until 2060
Weitzman damage function
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Likely uncertainty range - central projection until 2100
Likely uncertainty range - central projection until 2060
Central projection until 2100
Central projection until 2060 (Committed by 2060)
Weitzman damage function
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Likely uncertainty range - central projection until 2100
Likely uncertainty range - central projection until 2060
Central projection until 2100
Central projection until 2060 (Committed by 2060)
Weitzman damage function
Source: OECD (2016), The Economic Consequences of Climate Change
9. 9
Other important consequences
OECD country Current climate 2050
Mortality
(thousands)
Costs
(billion USD)
Mortality
(thousands)
Costs
(billion USD)
Canada 1 3 8 23
Chile 0 0 1 4
Mexico 1 4 12 36
USA 11 2 63 27
EU large 4 11 34 66 197
Other OECD EU 8 17 44 104
Other OECD 1 4 13 39
Aus. & New Z. 1 2 3 9
Japan 3 8 10 30
Korea 1 2 6 17
OECD total 38 75 226 487
RCP6.0 RCP8.5
Most OECD countries 0.5 1.1
Chile 0.3 0.6
Mexico 0.4 0.9
Non-OECD EU 0.3 0.7
Brazil 0.1 0.2
Russia 0.2 0.4
India 0.0 0.1
Indonesia 0.0 0.1
China 0.2 0.5
South Africa 0.4 0.8
Other regions 0.0-0.1 0.0-0.3
…and many more that could not be quantified!
Urban flood
damages
Premature
deaths from
heat stress
Loss of
biodiversity
and
ecosystems
Tipping
points
OECD country Current climate 2050
Mortality
(thousands)
Costs
(billion USD)
Mortality
(thousands)
Costs
(billion USD)
Canada 1 3 8 23
Chile 0 0 1 4
Mexico 1 4 12 36
USA 11 2 63 27
EU large 4 11 34 66 197
Other OECD EU 8 17 44 104
Other OECD 1 4 13 39
Aus. & New Z. 1 2 3 9
Japan 3 8 10 30
Korea 1 2 6 17
OECD total 38 75 226 487
RCP6.0 RCP8.5
Most OECD countries 0.5 1.1
Chile 0.3 0.6
Mexico 0.4 0.9
Non-OECD EU 0.3 0.7
Brazil 0.1 0.2
Russia 0.2 0.4
India 0.0 0.1
Indonesia 0.0 0.1
China 0.2 0.5
South Africa 0.4 0.8
Other regions 0.0-0.1 0.0-0.3
Source: OECD (2016), The Economic Consequences of Climate Change
12. Annual average total anthropogenic PM2.5 (µg/m3)
Concentrations calculated with TM5-FASST (EU JRC Ispra) 12
Concentrations of air pollutants
2060
201020302060
14. 14
(GDP percentage change wrt no-feedback baseline, 2060)
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Canada
Chile
Mexico
USA
EUlarge4
OtherOECDEU
OtherOECD
Aus.&NewZ.
Japan
Korea
China
Non-OECDEU
Russia
Caspianregion
OtherEurope
Brazil
OtherLat.Am.
MiddleEast
NorthAfrica
ASEAN9
Indonesia
India
OtherAsia
SouthAfrica
OtherAfrica
World
OECD America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Rest of Europe & Asia Latin
America
Middle
East &
North
Africa
South and South-East
Asia
Sub
Saharan
Africa
Interaction effects Agriculture Labour productivity Health Expenditures
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Canada
Chile
Mexico
USA
EUlarge4
OtherOECDEU
OtherOECD
Aus.&NewZ.
Japan
Korea
China
Non-OECDEU
Russia
Caspianregion
OtherEurope
Brazil
OtherLat.Am.
MiddleEast
NorthAfrica
ASEAN9
Indonesia
India
OtherAsia
SouthAfrica
OtherAfrica
World
OECD America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Rest of Europe & Asia Latin
America
Middle
East &
North
Africa
South and South-East
Asia
Sub
Saharan
Africa
Interaction effects Agriculture Labour productivity Health Expenditures
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Canada
Chile
Mexico
USA
EUlarge4
OtherOECDEU
OtherOECD
Aus.&NewZ.
Japan
Korea
China
Non-OECDEU
Russia
Caspianregion
OtherEurope
Brazil
OtherLat.Am.
MiddleEast
NorthAfrica
ASEAN9
Indonesia
India
OtherAsia
SouthAfrica
OtherAfrica
World
OECD America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Rest of Europe & Asia Latin
America
Middle
East &
North
Africa
South and South-East
Asia
Sub
Saharan
Africa
Interaction effects Agriculture Labour productivity Health Expenditures
Projected market costs of outdoor
air pollution, 2060
17. 17
The land-water-energy nexus
EnergyLand
Energy securityFood security Water security
Energy
Water
Water
Agriculture
Policy objectives (III)
Economic activities (II)
Resources (I)
Socioeconomic drivers Climate change
Welfare Env. quality
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