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The biodiversity nexus
across multiple drivers:
research and modelling
landscape
Dr. Simon Smart, Dr. HyeJin Kim
OECD Environmental Outlook Workshop
19 February 2024
Paris, France
Understanding the role of biodiversity in the climate, food,
water, energy, transport and health nexus in Europe
Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
How is biodiversity influencing and influenced by climate, food, water, energy, transport and health?
Figure 8. Number of studies demonstrating positive or negative interlinkages of (a)
the influence of biodiversity on the other nexus elements and (b) the influence of
the other nexus elements on biodiversity.
Multiple Facets and Measures of Biodiversity
Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016)
• We ask a lot of the models and the
modelers!
• The goal is to model linkages and
feedbacks across the PSR concept
• We all have great ideas but are
data-constrained as we upscale to
estimate for the planet
• Regional validation seems
essential
• Ensemble modelling is also very
valuable; not just one model type
Multiple Approaches to Predicting Changes in Biodiversity
Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016)
• Empirical & expert-driven
• extend past patterns to the future
• Large element of ‘space-for-time’ substitution
• Easier to do and can be validated by hindcasting
to some extent
• Process-based
• Components also correlative and fixed
• Capable of producing novel outcomes as species
& environment interact
• But more processes require more data
• Combine empirical and process?
Modelling Climate and Socio-economic (land use) impact
on Biodiversity
Biodiversity and ecosystem services model
intercomparison using the SSPs and RCPs (BES-SIM)
Kim et al. 2018. GMD: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018
Pereira et al. In review. Science: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.031716
Local species richness – historical (1900-2015) and future LU vs. LUCC (2015-2050)
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of diversity-weighted
changes in local species richness. (a) Historical
changes from 1900 to 2015 (number of models,
N=5). Future species richness changes from 2015
to 2050 driven by land-use change alone in each
scenario (b-d; 5 N=5) and by land-use change and
climate change combined (e-f, N=2). All values are
based on inter-model means. Diversity-weighted
changes in local species richness were calculated
as the absolute change in species richness in each
cell divided by the mean species richness across
cells. Color scale is based on quantile intervals
and differs for (a-d) and (e-g). Maps in
equirectangular projection.
Kim et al. 2018. GMD: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018
Pereira et al. In review. Science: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.031716
Modelling Climate and Socio-economic (land use) impact
on Biodiversity
Outputs
to predict impacts
on biodiversity &
ecosystem resilience:
- NPP
- Climate
- Soil nutrients
- Water
- Land-cover extent
Positive Nexus Modelling across
Biodiversity, Climate and Pollution
JULES
Global process-based, dynamic model:
- energy balance driven by CO2, climate
and water
- soil C/N cycling added (JULES-C/N)
- land feedbacks to global CO2 (IMOGEN)
- fire (INFERNO)
- advanced hydrology (HydroJULES)
Inputs:
• Climate & CC (UK
Met Office)
• Land cover
• Soil & hydrology
• Management &
land-use change
• Nutrient and
pollutant inputs
Sources: JULES website: https://jules.jchmr.org/, JULES user guide: https://jules-lsm.github.io/latest/index.html
Accurate modelling of NPP provides
the mechanistic link to primary
producer diversity
Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016)
JULES model output
Policy outcomes
KMGBF (Biodiversity)
• Goal A. Biodiversity
• Extinction of threatened species
• Abundance of native wild species
• Goal A. Ecosystem
• Integrity
• Connectivity
• Resilience
• Goal B. NCP
• Biodiversity sustainably used &
managed
• NCP valued, maintained,
enhanced
Paris Agreement NDC / NetZero (Climate)
• 1.5 °C
• Zero GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O)
• Carbon capture and storage
• Carbon budget
• …
WHO & FAO (soil) Guideline (Pollution)
• Air: PM, O3, NO2, SO2
• Drinking water: long list of pollutants
• Soil quality: long list of soil properties
• …
Net ecosystem exchange
(npp_n_gb – resp_s_gb)
Source: https://jules-lsm.github.io/latest/output-variables.html
Net biosphere productivity
(nbp_gb)
Soil nitrogen emissions
(n_gas_gb)
Net primary productivity
(npp_n_gb)
Root zone soil moisture
availability
(smc_avail_top)
Wetland methane emissions
(fch4_wetl)
Land cover (extent of Plant
Functional Type/PFT)
JULES + Biodiversity & Pollution
model extensions and outputs
JULES (+CN) NPP + species
distribution models (SDMs)
KMGBF (Biodiversity)
• Goal A. Biodiversity
• Extinction of threatened species
• Abundance of native wild species
• Goal A. Ecosystem
• Integrity
• Connectivity
• Resilience
• Goal B. NCP
• Biodiversity sustainably used &
managed
• NCP valued, maintained,
enhanced
Paris Agreement NDC / NetZero (Climate)
• 1.5 °C
• Zero GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O)
• Carbon capture and storage
• Carbon budget
• …
WHO & FAO (soil) Standards (Pollution)
• Air: PM, O3, NO2, SO2
• Drinking water: long list of pollutants
• Soil quality: long list of soil properties
• …
JULES (+CN) + ecological
networkfoodweb models
(aspirational)
JULES (+CN) + ecosystem services
models
JULES + UKCA (UK Chemistry and
Aerosols) + UM (MetOffice)
JULES – LTLS-FE model (UK-scale
freshwater macronutrients)
Sources: Emmett et al. 2016, Archibald et al 2020, Bell et al. 2021, Bush et al. 2023)
Policy outcomes
Developments in Biodiversity Scenarios and Modelling
IPBES Nature Futures Framework (NFF)
• Nature and human wellbeing at the center
• Alternative future scenarios for societal and ecological transformations
• Diverse values of nature – intrinsic, instrumental, relational/cultural
• Participatory and flexible - can be applied any place or system
• Diverse worldviews, plurality, inclusivity, and equity.
• Co-developed with stakeholders in IPBES (2017-2023), being applied and tested across the globe (Zotero)
Sources: IPBES NFF methodological guide (2023), Rosa et al. 2017 (roadmap), Pereira et al. 2020, (framework) Kim et al. 2023 (modelling), Durán et al. 2023 (narratives).
• GEO BON EcoCode Working Group
• Integrated modelling platform envisaged that encapsulates organismal complexity across spatial and temporal scale
• Aims to inform CBD KMGBF with detection and attribution of changes in biodiversity across multiple drivers
• Biodiversity model intercomparison (BMIP)
Developments in Biodiversity Scenarios and Modelling
• BES-SIM2
• Uses IPBES Nature Futures Framework in e.g. developing new land use projections, assessing socio-ecological
impact on climate mitigation
• Aim: 2nd IPBES Global Assessment and CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF)
• Models: IAM land use module, biodiversity models, DGVMs, ecosystem services models, etc.
• Drivers: land use, climate change, possibly more drivers in KMGBF
• IPCC Scenarios Forum
• Integration of biodiversity in future IPCC reports
• Solution-oriented scenario modelling with topics e.g., 1.5 degree, equity, degrowth
• More interaction across working groups, i.e. biophysical, mitigation (large-scale), adaptation (local/bottom up)
• Participatory scenarios e.g. via Illustrative mitigation pathways, Climate Resilient Development Pathways
Sources: Urban et al. 2022, IPCC 2023
Thank you
For more information:
ssma@ceh.ac.uk, hkim@ceh.ac.uk
ceh.ac.uk
Supplementary Materials
Negative impact of other sectors on biodiversity
About half of the interlinkages were negative influences of other sectors on biodiversity,
highlighting substantial damage inflicted on nature from human activities in these sectors.
(i) land use/land use alteration via e.g., habitat destruction for food production, land-based renewable energy
(bioenergy , solar, wind), habitat fragmentation from transport and energy infrastructure
(ii) water use/water course alteration via e.g., water flow and river fragmentation due to dams and reservoirs
for hydropower, water demand for energy and irrigation, dredging affecting coastal and marine ecosystems
(iii) land degradation affecting habitat quality and species diversity from e.g., agricultural intensification, peat
extraction for energy, mining for renewable energy
(iv) water degradation affecting freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems and species through e.g.,
eutrophication, acidification, brownification and sedimentation
(v) climate change impacting species and ecosystems through via e.g., changes in temperature, water stress,
seasonality, floods
(vi) direct species fatalities from collisions with wind turbines and traffic (road, rail, shipping)
Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
Negative impact of biodiversity on other sectors
By contrast, there is limited evidence of the negative influence of biodiversity on other sectors.
(i) competition for land
(ii) disease transmission from a small set of species triggered by habitat loss or climate change
(iii) introduction and expansion of invasive alien species
Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
Co-benefits between biodiversity and other sectors
About one third of studies evidence positive interlinkages between biodiversity and other sectors,
highlighting policies and actions towards biodiversity restoration and conservation
that co-benefits other sectors.
(i) biodiversity-friendly management, e.g., agro-biodiversity/agroecological practices, sustainable
management of bioenergy cropping systems, integrated management of water landscapes, management of
habitats on road verges and railway embankments
(ii) restoration of ecosystems, e.g., forests and peatlands for climate mitigation and bioenergy, riparian forests
for flood control, remediation of water courses to improve quality
(iii) protection of species and ecosystems that provide ecosystem services e.g., water filtration and retention
(iv) urban green and blue infrastructure, including nature-based solutions, e.g., green roofs for improving
energy performance, greening transports for pollution control, urban green space for human health
(v) dietary changes involving lower meat consumption to reduce livestock for climate mitigation
Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
Biodiversity-Climate-Pollution nexus
Triple crisis
- Fossil fuel → atmospheric and chemical pollution / climate change → human health (Kassouri et al. 2022,
Demeneix 2020)
- Climate → drought → O3/degraded ecosystem → air pollution → human & ecosystem health (Lin et al. 2020,
Fusaro et al. 2015)
- Climate warming → increased tree canopy → increased air pollution with reduced air circulation → human health
(Hunter et al. 2019)
+ Biodiversity → increased soil organic carbon → increased carbon sequestration & soil health (Chen et al. 2018)
+ Green transport/infrastructure/energy → reduced pollution → improved climate and biodiversity (Pasimeni et al.
2019)
Pollution nexus
- Agriculture/farm intensity with fertilizer and pesticides → water pollution → reduced invertebrates/biodiversity
(Foy et al 2001, Irabien and Darton 2016)
- Urbanization & infrastructure → pollution from energy, roads, transport → human health (Hunter et al 2019,
Fusaro et al 2015, Puodziukas et al 2016)
- Road infrastructure → disruption in water regime, habitat loss, erosion, pollution → biodiversity (Puodziukas et al
2016)
+ Highway sedimentation ponds → natural water body pollution runoff → sustains biodiversity (Meland et al. 2020,
Sun et al. 2019)
Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
Biodiversity-Climate-Food nexus in Europe
Strong negative influence of climate on biodiversity and food
• Aridification can negatively impact amphibian and reptile reproductive sites and
habitats, reducing food availability for other species in the food web (Crnobrnja-
Isailović et al., 2021). This can exacerbate negative influences on biodiversity in
food systems, e.g. agricultural intensification, further contributing to loss of species
richness and abundance (Andriamanantena et al., 2022; Bourke et al., 2014;
Wagner, 2020).
• Climate change can reduce food production, e.g. making the rainfed cultivation of
olive crops no longer economically feasible with increased demand for water (Fotia
et al., 2021). More frequent and severe floods can affect the recovery phase of
microbenthic assemblages from eutrophication, which in turn impacts bivalves for
fishers who rely on estuarine resources (Cardoso et al., 2008).
Moderate positive influences across biodiversity-climate-food
• Forest restoration and biodiversity conservation measures contribute to carbon
storage and climate mitigation (Eriksson et al., 2018; Schulze, 2006).
• Reducing livestock production reduces greenhouse gas emissions (Westhoek et al.,
2014), and agronomic management of grasslands can maintain habitats for
grassland species and prevent encroachment of other species e.g. shrubs
(Giubilato et al., 2016).
• Conversion from monocropping to alley cropping increases plant diversity
(Tsonkova et al., 2012) and provides enhanced niche space.
BIONEXT review: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/6215/
Negative influences of climate and transport on biodiversity
• Negative influence of transport primarily due to emissions from fossil fuels,
including by air, land and sea (Barrios-Crespo et al., 2021; Charles et al., 2009;
Dall-Orsoletta et al., 2022; Gallo et al., 2017; Kassouri et al., 2022; Puodziukas et
al., 2016; Rupcic et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2021).
• Transport infrastructure like roads and railways impact habitats through loss of
territory, changes to hydrological regimes, pollution, disturbance, barriers to
movement, accidents and noise (Buekers et al., 2014; Elshout et al., 2019;
Puodziukas et al., 2016; Simkins et al., 2023).
• Ship collisions can lead to pollution (Lloret et al., 2022) and transport corridors
can spread invasive species (Zhang et al., 2021)
Positive influences of Biodiversity and transport on climate
• Intact forests and other ecosystems are important carbon sinks (Barrios-Crespo
et al., 2021; Lloret et al., 2022; Perišić et al., 2022).
• Rewilding urban spaces contributes to climate adaptation and mitigation (e.g.,
the cooling effect).
• Efficient road infrastructure design can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, e.g.,
using smooth bypasses and paving of gravel roads (Puodziukas et al., 2016).
• Forest materials contribute to biomass for renewable energy (Perišić et al., 2022)
BIONEXT review: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/6215/
Biodiversity-Climate-Food nexus in Europe
Negative influences of climate on biodiversity and water and
negative influence of water on biodiversity
• Changes in hydrological regime and seasonality can influence biodiversity e.g. higher
temperatures lead to higher carbon dioxide concentrations and reduced water availability,
which can result in lower yields for bioenergy plants (Franzaring et al., 2015, Hochman et al.,
2018, Milićević et al., 2016), dams and reservoirs leading to fragmentation and alteration of
river flow and changing habitat conditions for aquatic species (Dopico et al., 2022; Mihók et al.,
2017).
• Higher drought risk can decrease grassland productivity and aboveground biomass (Dibari et al.,
2021, Grigorescu et al., 2021) and decrease biodiversity generally (Fusaro et al., 2015), e.g.
through reduced soil moisture content (Wessel et al., 2004) and surface ozone (Lei et al., 2022,
p. 20).
• Extreme flooding affects the recovery of microbenthic assemblages from eutrophication, and
eutrophic areas in estuaries shown to lead to habitat instability (Cardoso et al., 2008) and
depletion of bottom-water oxygen affecting habitat conditions for fish (Sula et al., 2020).
Positive influences of water on biodiversity and positive influences
between biodiversity and climate
• Healthy water ecosystems can positively impact aquatic biodiversity as a whole (Eriksson et al.,
2018). The ocean plays a key role in climate regulation by producing oxygen and absorbing
carbon dioxide (Pellens et al., 2023).
• Biodiversity contributes to climate mitigation and helps manage water resources, e.g., trees and
forests are carbon sinks and act as sponges to store water and slowly release it during more
hydrological extreme events (Eriksson et al., 2018).
• Increased precipitation and altered runoff patterns can dilute strong anions, which may slightly
improve the chemistry of river water. However, such changes can be counterbalanced by other
impacts, e.g. mineralization of soil organic matter and increased aquatic vegetation activity (R. F.
Wright et al., 2017).
BIONEXT review: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/6215/
Biodiversity-Climate-Food nexus in Europe
JULES Model
Process-based modelling of
air, land and water
Policy options Policy outcomes
Economy
• Agriculture/land use
• Mining & extraction
• Transport
• Circular economy
• Degrowth (GDP)
Demography
Biodiversity: land and ocean
e.g. protection and restoration
Climate: mitigation via
e.g. energy transition
KMGBF (Biodiversity)
• Goal A. Biodiversity
• Extinction of threatened species
• Abundance of native wild species
• Goal A. Ecosystem
• Integrity
• Connectivity
• Resilience
• Goal B. NCP
• Biodiversity sustainably used &
managed
• NCP valued, maintained,
enhanced
Paris Agreement NDC / NetZero (Climate)
• 1.5 °C
• Zero GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O)
• Carbon capture and storage
• Carbon budget
• …
WHO & FAO (soil) Guideline (Pollution)
• Air: PM, O3, NO2, SO2
• Drinking water: long list of pollutants
• Soil quality: long list of soil properties
• …
+IMOGEN
Land use &
climate change
projections
JULES+
output
variables
Pollution: e.g. regulation on
use of fertilizer and pesticides,
greener transport
Soil C & N
Fire
Sources: Best et al. 2011, Clark et al. 2011, Wiltshire et al. 2021, Huntingford et al. 2010
Further references on modelling biodiversity, ecosystem
functioning and services
• Krause et al. 2022. How more sophisticated leaf biomass simulations can increase the realism of modelled
animal populations
• Antunes et al. 2024. Linking biodiversity, ecosystem function, and Nature’s contributions to people: a
macroecological energy flux perspective
• Wilkinson et al. 2020. Defining and evaluating predictions of joint species distribution models
• Boulangeat et al. 2012. Accounting for dispersal and biotic interactions to disentangle the drivers of
species distributions and their abundances
• Catullo et al. 2015. Extending spatial modelling of climate change responses beyond the realized niche:
estimating, and accommodating, physiological limits and adaptive evolution
• Garzon et al. 2019. DTraitSDMs: species distribution models that account for local adaptation and
phenotypic plasticity
Further references on pollution
• IPBES Methodological Assessment on Scenarios and Models (2016) Section 3.4.3 Pollution
• IPBES Global Assessment (2019) Section 2.1.15 Direct Drivers: Pollution
Global
• Atmosphere: ACCMIP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project)
• Terrestrial: noise, light, nutrient in soil
• Marine: Ecotracer of Ecopath/Ecosim (nuclear pollution impact on marine & freshwater)
• Freshwater: PBL GLOBIO-Aquatic (eutrophication impact on mean species abundance)
Regional (European examples)
- Biogeochemical models process N and P inputs from regional pollutant emissions models (Posch & Reinds
2009; Wamelink et al 2009; Tipping et al 2021) and linked empirical models estimate impact on biodiversity
(Smart et al 2010; Smart et al 2019; DeVries et al 2010; Wamelink et al 2020; Tipping et al 2013)
Further references on pollution impact on biodiversity
Further references on JULES model
• JULES website: https://jules.jchmr.org/
• JULES user guide: https://jules-lsm.github.io/latest/index.html
• Key publications:
• Energy & water fluxes (Best et al. 2011)
• Carbon fluxes & vegetation dynamics (Clark et al. 2011)
• Coupled terrestrial carbon-nitrogen (Wiltshire et al. 2021)
• IMOGEN terrestrial impacts of a changing climate (Huntingford et al. 2010)
• Latest special issue: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/special_issue1008.html
Components of Nature and Biodiversity
and key drivers of change
Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016)
https://zenodo.org/records/3235429
Multi-faced and multi-scale Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Services
Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016)
https://zenodo.org/records/3235429
Models and Variables in Biodiversity Science
Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016)
https://zenodo.org/records/3235429
CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
Goals & Targets
GOAL A
Protect and Restore
• The integrity, connectivity and resilience of all ecosystems are maintained, enhanced, or restored, substantially
increasing the area of natural ecosystems by 2050;
• Human induced extinction of known threatened species is halted, and, by 2050, the extinction rate and risk of all
species are reduced tenfold and the abundance of native wild species is increased to healthy and resilient levels;
• The genetic diversity within populations of wild and domesticated species, is maintained, safeguarding their
adaptive potential.
GOAL B
Prosper with Nature
• Biodiversity is sustainably used and managed and nature’s contributions to people, including ecosystem functions
and services, are valued, maintained and enhanced, with those currently in decline being restored, supporting the
achievement of sustainable development for the benefit of present and future generations by 2050.
Source: https://www.cbd.int/gbf
Source: Toward a 2030 Biodiversity Strategy for Canada: Halting and Reversing Nature Loss (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2023).

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HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: research and modelling landscape

  • 1. The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: research and modelling landscape Dr. Simon Smart, Dr. HyeJin Kim OECD Environmental Outlook Workshop 19 February 2024 Paris, France
  • 2. Understanding the role of biodiversity in the climate, food, water, energy, transport and health nexus in Europe Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T How is biodiversity influencing and influenced by climate, food, water, energy, transport and health? Figure 8. Number of studies demonstrating positive or negative interlinkages of (a) the influence of biodiversity on the other nexus elements and (b) the influence of the other nexus elements on biodiversity.
  • 3. Multiple Facets and Measures of Biodiversity Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016) • We ask a lot of the models and the modelers! • The goal is to model linkages and feedbacks across the PSR concept • We all have great ideas but are data-constrained as we upscale to estimate for the planet • Regional validation seems essential • Ensemble modelling is also very valuable; not just one model type
  • 4. Multiple Approaches to Predicting Changes in Biodiversity Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016) • Empirical & expert-driven • extend past patterns to the future • Large element of ‘space-for-time’ substitution • Easier to do and can be validated by hindcasting to some extent • Process-based • Components also correlative and fixed • Capable of producing novel outcomes as species & environment interact • But more processes require more data • Combine empirical and process?
  • 5. Modelling Climate and Socio-economic (land use) impact on Biodiversity Biodiversity and ecosystem services model intercomparison using the SSPs and RCPs (BES-SIM) Kim et al. 2018. GMD: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018 Pereira et al. In review. Science: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.031716
  • 6. Local species richness – historical (1900-2015) and future LU vs. LUCC (2015-2050) Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of diversity-weighted changes in local species richness. (a) Historical changes from 1900 to 2015 (number of models, N=5). Future species richness changes from 2015 to 2050 driven by land-use change alone in each scenario (b-d; 5 N=5) and by land-use change and climate change combined (e-f, N=2). All values are based on inter-model means. Diversity-weighted changes in local species richness were calculated as the absolute change in species richness in each cell divided by the mean species richness across cells. Color scale is based on quantile intervals and differs for (a-d) and (e-g). Maps in equirectangular projection. Kim et al. 2018. GMD: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018 Pereira et al. In review. Science: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.031716 Modelling Climate and Socio-economic (land use) impact on Biodiversity
  • 7. Outputs to predict impacts on biodiversity & ecosystem resilience: - NPP - Climate - Soil nutrients - Water - Land-cover extent Positive Nexus Modelling across Biodiversity, Climate and Pollution JULES Global process-based, dynamic model: - energy balance driven by CO2, climate and water - soil C/N cycling added (JULES-C/N) - land feedbacks to global CO2 (IMOGEN) - fire (INFERNO) - advanced hydrology (HydroJULES) Inputs: • Climate & CC (UK Met Office) • Land cover • Soil & hydrology • Management & land-use change • Nutrient and pollutant inputs Sources: JULES website: https://jules.jchmr.org/, JULES user guide: https://jules-lsm.github.io/latest/index.html
  • 8. Accurate modelling of NPP provides the mechanistic link to primary producer diversity Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016)
  • 9. JULES model output Policy outcomes KMGBF (Biodiversity) • Goal A. Biodiversity • Extinction of threatened species • Abundance of native wild species • Goal A. Ecosystem • Integrity • Connectivity • Resilience • Goal B. NCP • Biodiversity sustainably used & managed • NCP valued, maintained, enhanced Paris Agreement NDC / NetZero (Climate) • 1.5 °C • Zero GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O) • Carbon capture and storage • Carbon budget • … WHO & FAO (soil) Guideline (Pollution) • Air: PM, O3, NO2, SO2 • Drinking water: long list of pollutants • Soil quality: long list of soil properties • … Net ecosystem exchange (npp_n_gb – resp_s_gb) Source: https://jules-lsm.github.io/latest/output-variables.html Net biosphere productivity (nbp_gb) Soil nitrogen emissions (n_gas_gb) Net primary productivity (npp_n_gb) Root zone soil moisture availability (smc_avail_top) Wetland methane emissions (fch4_wetl) Land cover (extent of Plant Functional Type/PFT)
  • 10. JULES + Biodiversity & Pollution model extensions and outputs JULES (+CN) NPP + species distribution models (SDMs) KMGBF (Biodiversity) • Goal A. Biodiversity • Extinction of threatened species • Abundance of native wild species • Goal A. Ecosystem • Integrity • Connectivity • Resilience • Goal B. NCP • Biodiversity sustainably used & managed • NCP valued, maintained, enhanced Paris Agreement NDC / NetZero (Climate) • 1.5 °C • Zero GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O) • Carbon capture and storage • Carbon budget • … WHO & FAO (soil) Standards (Pollution) • Air: PM, O3, NO2, SO2 • Drinking water: long list of pollutants • Soil quality: long list of soil properties • … JULES (+CN) + ecological networkfoodweb models (aspirational) JULES (+CN) + ecosystem services models JULES + UKCA (UK Chemistry and Aerosols) + UM (MetOffice) JULES – LTLS-FE model (UK-scale freshwater macronutrients) Sources: Emmett et al. 2016, Archibald et al 2020, Bell et al. 2021, Bush et al. 2023) Policy outcomes
  • 11. Developments in Biodiversity Scenarios and Modelling IPBES Nature Futures Framework (NFF) • Nature and human wellbeing at the center • Alternative future scenarios for societal and ecological transformations • Diverse values of nature – intrinsic, instrumental, relational/cultural • Participatory and flexible - can be applied any place or system • Diverse worldviews, plurality, inclusivity, and equity. • Co-developed with stakeholders in IPBES (2017-2023), being applied and tested across the globe (Zotero) Sources: IPBES NFF methodological guide (2023), Rosa et al. 2017 (roadmap), Pereira et al. 2020, (framework) Kim et al. 2023 (modelling), Durán et al. 2023 (narratives).
  • 12. • GEO BON EcoCode Working Group • Integrated modelling platform envisaged that encapsulates organismal complexity across spatial and temporal scale • Aims to inform CBD KMGBF with detection and attribution of changes in biodiversity across multiple drivers • Biodiversity model intercomparison (BMIP) Developments in Biodiversity Scenarios and Modelling • BES-SIM2 • Uses IPBES Nature Futures Framework in e.g. developing new land use projections, assessing socio-ecological impact on climate mitigation • Aim: 2nd IPBES Global Assessment and CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) • Models: IAM land use module, biodiversity models, DGVMs, ecosystem services models, etc. • Drivers: land use, climate change, possibly more drivers in KMGBF • IPCC Scenarios Forum • Integration of biodiversity in future IPCC reports • Solution-oriented scenario modelling with topics e.g., 1.5 degree, equity, degrowth • More interaction across working groups, i.e. biophysical, mitigation (large-scale), adaptation (local/bottom up) • Participatory scenarios e.g. via Illustrative mitigation pathways, Climate Resilient Development Pathways Sources: Urban et al. 2022, IPCC 2023
  • 13. Thank you For more information: ssma@ceh.ac.uk, hkim@ceh.ac.uk ceh.ac.uk
  • 15. Negative impact of other sectors on biodiversity About half of the interlinkages were negative influences of other sectors on biodiversity, highlighting substantial damage inflicted on nature from human activities in these sectors. (i) land use/land use alteration via e.g., habitat destruction for food production, land-based renewable energy (bioenergy , solar, wind), habitat fragmentation from transport and energy infrastructure (ii) water use/water course alteration via e.g., water flow and river fragmentation due to dams and reservoirs for hydropower, water demand for energy and irrigation, dredging affecting coastal and marine ecosystems (iii) land degradation affecting habitat quality and species diversity from e.g., agricultural intensification, peat extraction for energy, mining for renewable energy (iv) water degradation affecting freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems and species through e.g., eutrophication, acidification, brownification and sedimentation (v) climate change impacting species and ecosystems through via e.g., changes in temperature, water stress, seasonality, floods (vi) direct species fatalities from collisions with wind turbines and traffic (road, rail, shipping) Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
  • 16. Negative impact of biodiversity on other sectors By contrast, there is limited evidence of the negative influence of biodiversity on other sectors. (i) competition for land (ii) disease transmission from a small set of species triggered by habitat loss or climate change (iii) introduction and expansion of invasive alien species Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
  • 17. Co-benefits between biodiversity and other sectors About one third of studies evidence positive interlinkages between biodiversity and other sectors, highlighting policies and actions towards biodiversity restoration and conservation that co-benefits other sectors. (i) biodiversity-friendly management, e.g., agro-biodiversity/agroecological practices, sustainable management of bioenergy cropping systems, integrated management of water landscapes, management of habitats on road verges and railway embankments (ii) restoration of ecosystems, e.g., forests and peatlands for climate mitigation and bioenergy, riparian forests for flood control, remediation of water courses to improve quality (iii) protection of species and ecosystems that provide ecosystem services e.g., water filtration and retention (iv) urban green and blue infrastructure, including nature-based solutions, e.g., green roofs for improving energy performance, greening transports for pollution control, urban green space for human health (v) dietary changes involving lower meat consumption to reduce livestock for climate mitigation Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
  • 18. Biodiversity-Climate-Pollution nexus Triple crisis - Fossil fuel → atmospheric and chemical pollution / climate change → human health (Kassouri et al. 2022, Demeneix 2020) - Climate → drought → O3/degraded ecosystem → air pollution → human & ecosystem health (Lin et al. 2020, Fusaro et al. 2015) - Climate warming → increased tree canopy → increased air pollution with reduced air circulation → human health (Hunter et al. 2019) + Biodiversity → increased soil organic carbon → increased carbon sequestration & soil health (Chen et al. 2018) + Green transport/infrastructure/energy → reduced pollution → improved climate and biodiversity (Pasimeni et al. 2019) Pollution nexus - Agriculture/farm intensity with fertilizer and pesticides → water pollution → reduced invertebrates/biodiversity (Foy et al 2001, Irabien and Darton 2016) - Urbanization & infrastructure → pollution from energy, roads, transport → human health (Hunter et al 2019, Fusaro et al 2015, Puodziukas et al 2016) - Road infrastructure → disruption in water regime, habitat loss, erosion, pollution → biodiversity (Puodziukas et al 2016) + Highway sedimentation ponds → natural water body pollution runoff → sustains biodiversity (Meland et al. 2020, Sun et al. 2019) Source: Kim et al. In review. STOTEN. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W10T
  • 19. Biodiversity-Climate-Food nexus in Europe Strong negative influence of climate on biodiversity and food • Aridification can negatively impact amphibian and reptile reproductive sites and habitats, reducing food availability for other species in the food web (Crnobrnja- Isailović et al., 2021). This can exacerbate negative influences on biodiversity in food systems, e.g. agricultural intensification, further contributing to loss of species richness and abundance (Andriamanantena et al., 2022; Bourke et al., 2014; Wagner, 2020). • Climate change can reduce food production, e.g. making the rainfed cultivation of olive crops no longer economically feasible with increased demand for water (Fotia et al., 2021). More frequent and severe floods can affect the recovery phase of microbenthic assemblages from eutrophication, which in turn impacts bivalves for fishers who rely on estuarine resources (Cardoso et al., 2008). Moderate positive influences across biodiversity-climate-food • Forest restoration and biodiversity conservation measures contribute to carbon storage and climate mitigation (Eriksson et al., 2018; Schulze, 2006). • Reducing livestock production reduces greenhouse gas emissions (Westhoek et al., 2014), and agronomic management of grasslands can maintain habitats for grassland species and prevent encroachment of other species e.g. shrubs (Giubilato et al., 2016). • Conversion from monocropping to alley cropping increases plant diversity (Tsonkova et al., 2012) and provides enhanced niche space. BIONEXT review: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/6215/
  • 20. Negative influences of climate and transport on biodiversity • Negative influence of transport primarily due to emissions from fossil fuels, including by air, land and sea (Barrios-Crespo et al., 2021; Charles et al., 2009; Dall-Orsoletta et al., 2022; Gallo et al., 2017; Kassouri et al., 2022; Puodziukas et al., 2016; Rupcic et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2021). • Transport infrastructure like roads and railways impact habitats through loss of territory, changes to hydrological regimes, pollution, disturbance, barriers to movement, accidents and noise (Buekers et al., 2014; Elshout et al., 2019; Puodziukas et al., 2016; Simkins et al., 2023). • Ship collisions can lead to pollution (Lloret et al., 2022) and transport corridors can spread invasive species (Zhang et al., 2021) Positive influences of Biodiversity and transport on climate • Intact forests and other ecosystems are important carbon sinks (Barrios-Crespo et al., 2021; Lloret et al., 2022; Perišić et al., 2022). • Rewilding urban spaces contributes to climate adaptation and mitigation (e.g., the cooling effect). • Efficient road infrastructure design can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, e.g., using smooth bypasses and paving of gravel roads (Puodziukas et al., 2016). • Forest materials contribute to biomass for renewable energy (Perišić et al., 2022) BIONEXT review: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/6215/ Biodiversity-Climate-Food nexus in Europe
  • 21. Negative influences of climate on biodiversity and water and negative influence of water on biodiversity • Changes in hydrological regime and seasonality can influence biodiversity e.g. higher temperatures lead to higher carbon dioxide concentrations and reduced water availability, which can result in lower yields for bioenergy plants (Franzaring et al., 2015, Hochman et al., 2018, Milićević et al., 2016), dams and reservoirs leading to fragmentation and alteration of river flow and changing habitat conditions for aquatic species (Dopico et al., 2022; Mihók et al., 2017). • Higher drought risk can decrease grassland productivity and aboveground biomass (Dibari et al., 2021, Grigorescu et al., 2021) and decrease biodiversity generally (Fusaro et al., 2015), e.g. through reduced soil moisture content (Wessel et al., 2004) and surface ozone (Lei et al., 2022, p. 20). • Extreme flooding affects the recovery of microbenthic assemblages from eutrophication, and eutrophic areas in estuaries shown to lead to habitat instability (Cardoso et al., 2008) and depletion of bottom-water oxygen affecting habitat conditions for fish (Sula et al., 2020). Positive influences of water on biodiversity and positive influences between biodiversity and climate • Healthy water ecosystems can positively impact aquatic biodiversity as a whole (Eriksson et al., 2018). The ocean plays a key role in climate regulation by producing oxygen and absorbing carbon dioxide (Pellens et al., 2023). • Biodiversity contributes to climate mitigation and helps manage water resources, e.g., trees and forests are carbon sinks and act as sponges to store water and slowly release it during more hydrological extreme events (Eriksson et al., 2018). • Increased precipitation and altered runoff patterns can dilute strong anions, which may slightly improve the chemistry of river water. However, such changes can be counterbalanced by other impacts, e.g. mineralization of soil organic matter and increased aquatic vegetation activity (R. F. Wright et al., 2017). BIONEXT review: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/6215/ Biodiversity-Climate-Food nexus in Europe
  • 22. JULES Model Process-based modelling of air, land and water Policy options Policy outcomes Economy • Agriculture/land use • Mining & extraction • Transport • Circular economy • Degrowth (GDP) Demography Biodiversity: land and ocean e.g. protection and restoration Climate: mitigation via e.g. energy transition KMGBF (Biodiversity) • Goal A. Biodiversity • Extinction of threatened species • Abundance of native wild species • Goal A. Ecosystem • Integrity • Connectivity • Resilience • Goal B. NCP • Biodiversity sustainably used & managed • NCP valued, maintained, enhanced Paris Agreement NDC / NetZero (Climate) • 1.5 °C • Zero GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O) • Carbon capture and storage • Carbon budget • … WHO & FAO (soil) Guideline (Pollution) • Air: PM, O3, NO2, SO2 • Drinking water: long list of pollutants • Soil quality: long list of soil properties • … +IMOGEN Land use & climate change projections JULES+ output variables Pollution: e.g. regulation on use of fertilizer and pesticides, greener transport Soil C & N Fire Sources: Best et al. 2011, Clark et al. 2011, Wiltshire et al. 2021, Huntingford et al. 2010
  • 23. Further references on modelling biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services • Krause et al. 2022. How more sophisticated leaf biomass simulations can increase the realism of modelled animal populations • Antunes et al. 2024. Linking biodiversity, ecosystem function, and Nature’s contributions to people: a macroecological energy flux perspective • Wilkinson et al. 2020. Defining and evaluating predictions of joint species distribution models • Boulangeat et al. 2012. Accounting for dispersal and biotic interactions to disentangle the drivers of species distributions and their abundances • Catullo et al. 2015. Extending spatial modelling of climate change responses beyond the realized niche: estimating, and accommodating, physiological limits and adaptive evolution • Garzon et al. 2019. DTraitSDMs: species distribution models that account for local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity
  • 24. Further references on pollution • IPBES Methodological Assessment on Scenarios and Models (2016) Section 3.4.3 Pollution • IPBES Global Assessment (2019) Section 2.1.15 Direct Drivers: Pollution
  • 25. Global • Atmosphere: ACCMIP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project) • Terrestrial: noise, light, nutrient in soil • Marine: Ecotracer of Ecopath/Ecosim (nuclear pollution impact on marine & freshwater) • Freshwater: PBL GLOBIO-Aquatic (eutrophication impact on mean species abundance) Regional (European examples) - Biogeochemical models process N and P inputs from regional pollutant emissions models (Posch & Reinds 2009; Wamelink et al 2009; Tipping et al 2021) and linked empirical models estimate impact on biodiversity (Smart et al 2010; Smart et al 2019; DeVries et al 2010; Wamelink et al 2020; Tipping et al 2013) Further references on pollution impact on biodiversity
  • 26. Further references on JULES model • JULES website: https://jules.jchmr.org/ • JULES user guide: https://jules-lsm.github.io/latest/index.html • Key publications: • Energy & water fluxes (Best et al. 2011) • Carbon fluxes & vegetation dynamics (Clark et al. 2011) • Coupled terrestrial carbon-nitrogen (Wiltshire et al. 2021) • IMOGEN terrestrial impacts of a changing climate (Huntingford et al. 2010) • Latest special issue: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/special_issue1008.html
  • 27. Components of Nature and Biodiversity and key drivers of change Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016) https://zenodo.org/records/3235429
  • 28. Multi-faced and multi-scale Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016) https://zenodo.org/records/3235429
  • 29. Models and Variables in Biodiversity Science Source: IPBES methodological assessment on scenarios and models (2016) https://zenodo.org/records/3235429
  • 30. CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework Goals & Targets GOAL A Protect and Restore • The integrity, connectivity and resilience of all ecosystems are maintained, enhanced, or restored, substantially increasing the area of natural ecosystems by 2050; • Human induced extinction of known threatened species is halted, and, by 2050, the extinction rate and risk of all species are reduced tenfold and the abundance of native wild species is increased to healthy and resilient levels; • The genetic diversity within populations of wild and domesticated species, is maintained, safeguarding their adaptive potential. GOAL B Prosper with Nature • Biodiversity is sustainably used and managed and nature’s contributions to people, including ecosystem functions and services, are valued, maintained and enhanced, with those currently in decline being restored, supporting the achievement of sustainable development for the benefit of present and future generations by 2050. Source: https://www.cbd.int/gbf
  • 31. Source: Toward a 2030 Biodiversity Strategy for Canada: Halting and Reversing Nature Loss (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2023).