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Assessing synergies and
trade-offs for health
and sustainable
development
OECD Environmental Outlook
“Integrated policies for the triple planetary crisis”
OECD, Paris, February 19th 2024
Jon Sampedro – jon.sampedro@bc3research.org
A view from the integrated
assessment modelling perspective
Background
2
Van Beek et al 2020
IAMs are widely applied tools for
scenario analysis
Background
3
EVOLUTION OF GCAM
https://gcims.pnnl.gov/community
IAMs are moving towards more
holistic sustainability assessment
GCAM/IAM Structure
4
- Socieconomics:
- Population
- GDP growth
- Costs / efficiencies for energy technologies
- Agricultural/land costs, crop yields,
profitability, water/fertilizer requirements
and carbon contents
- Water runoff/availability
- Depletable and renewable resource supply
curves
- Policies in place:
- Emission constraints
- Temperature limits
- Renewables / efficiency targets
- Land constraints / afforestation
targets
- ENERGY SYSTEM:
- Demand and flows
- Technology mix by sector
- Energy prices
- AFOLU:
- Land allocation
- Forest and agricultural production by crop
- Commodity prices
- Food/Feed balances
- WATER:
- Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses
(e.g. irrigation or municipal)
- EMISSIONS:
- GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech
(24 species)
- CLIMATE:
- Radiative forcing / temperature increase
- CO2 concentrations
- +Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR)
- ECONOMY
- Policy Costs
- Carbon prices
INPUTS
OUTPUTS
5
- ENERGY SYSTEM:
- Demand and flows
- Technology mix by sector
- Energy prices
- AFOLU:
- Land allocation
- Forest and agricultural production by crop
- Commodity prices
- Food/Feed balances
- WATER:
- Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses
(e.g. irrigation or municipal)
- EMISSIONS:
- GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech
(24 species)
- CLIMATE:
- Radiative forcing / temperature increase
- CO2 concentrations
- +Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR)
- ECONOMY
- Policy Costs
- Carbon prices
OUTPUTS
Van de Ven
et al 2023
Ou et al 2021
Turner et al 2018
Sampedro et al 2020
Calvin et al 2014
6
- Socieconomics:
- Population
- GDP growth
- Costs / efficiencies for energy technologies
- Agricultural/land costs, crop yields,
profitability, water/fertilizer requirements
and carbon contents
- Water runoff/availability
- Depletable and renewable resource supply
curves
- Policies in place:
- Emission constraints
- Temperature limits
- Renewables / efficiency targets
- Land constraints / afforestation
targets
- ENERGY SYSTEM:
- Demand and flows
- Technology mix by sector
- Energy prices
- AFOLU:
- Land allocation
- Forest and agricultural production by crop
- Commodity prices
- Food/Feed balances
- WATER:
- Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses
(e.g. irrigation or municipal)
- EMISSIONS:
- GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech
(24 species)
- CLIMATE:
- Radiative forcing / temperature increase
- CO2 concentrations
- +Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR)
- ECONOMY
- Policy Costs
- Carbon prices
INPUTS
OUTPUTS
How can we move forward
towards sustainability analysis?
7
“GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools
8
“GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools
Air pollution (AP) and health
GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health
9
Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an
air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst)
Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but
useful for scenario intercomparison
Possibility to assess health co-benefits for
human health attributable to ambient air
pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:
GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health
10
Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an
air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst)
Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but
useful for scenario intercomparison
Possibility to assess health co-benefits for
human health attributable to ambient air
pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:
- Alternative regional mitigation efforts
Markandya et al 2018
GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health
11
Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an
air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst)
Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but
useful for scenario intercomparison
Possibility to assess health co-benefits for
human health attributable to ambient air
pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:
- Alternative regional mitigation efforts
- Different technological pathways
Sampedro et al 2020
GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health
12
Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an
air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst)
Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but
useful for scenario intercomparison
Possibility to assess health co-benefits for
human health attributable to ambient air
pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:
- Alternative regional mitigation efforts
- Different technological pathways
- Comparison of alternative real-world
policies Sampedro et al 2021
13
“GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools
14
“GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools
Land/Biodiversity
GCAM Ecosystem: Land
15
Use the GCAM Land-data-system (Moirai) to
protect land areas -> i.e., biodiversity purposes
Di Vittorio et al, 2023 show the implications of
doubling protected land area
The study highlights the importance of spatial
heterogeneity in understanding and managing
land change
* Large implications for bioenergy production!
Global land allocation by land type
Primary energy consumption under different land availability constraints
GCAM Ecosystem: multiple SDG analysis
16
Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and
trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant
mitigation strategies with long-term SDG
objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018)
GCAM Ecosystem: multiple SDG analysis
17
Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and
trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant
mitigation strategies with long-term SDG
objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018)
- Combined GCAM outputs with tools from the
Ecosystem
GCAM Ecosystem: multiple SDG analysis
18
Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and
trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant
mitigation strategies with long-term SDG
objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018)
- Combined GCAM outputs with tools from the
Ecosystem
Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
19
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
20
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
- Residential energy
Sampedro et al in review
Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
21
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
- Residential energy
- Food
Waldhoff et al in prep
Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
22
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
- Residential energy
- Food
- Transportation sector
Van de Ven et al in prep
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
Passenger transport service use in 2050 relative to 2015
Reference Ref_PassDecarb Ref_PassDecarb_Deciles
biolim biolim_PassDecarb biolim_PassDecarb_Deciles
Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
23
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
- Residential energy
- Food
- Transportation sector
Several data challenges for a global version:
- Energy services and food from regional
balances are allocated to different consumers
based on assumptions instead of “real data”
- Active conversations across modelling teams
Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
24
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
- Residential energy
- Food
- Transportation sector
Several data challenges for a global version:
- Energy services and food from regional
balances are allocated to different consumers
based on assumptions instead of “real data”
- Active conversations across modelling teams
In GCAM-Europe we will disaggregate 60
consumer-types using country-level HBS
Challenges
25
Transitioning from unidirectional model connections to “hard-linking” (e.g., adding feedbacks):
- Trade-offs between accuracy and usability (e.g., gcamwrapper)
Integration of the different impacts obtained by the tools
- E.g., how to combine impacts on crop yields from O3 exposure and temperature or
precipitation changes
Diverse disciplines and backgrounds -> scientists speaking “different languages” (e.g., scales)
Difficult to develop such interdisciplinary project proposals
Some takeaways
26
The modelling community is evolving towards more holistic analyses in order to provide
more complete information to global and regional stakeholders:
- Important to listen beyond scenario co-creation
Considering wide environmental (SDG-related) impacts is essential to evaluate the
effectiveness of any policy action
- Help to the acceptability of the climate policies
We need to integrate scientists with very different disciplines to build even more
integrated models and tools to address new transdisciplinary research questions
Thank you for your attention
27
28
Extra
29
Background
30
Van Soest et al 2019
New directions of the IAM community
31
Expand the models to represent new
sectors and dynamics related to
sustainability/wellbeing:
- Materials and circular economy
- Mineral supply curves
- New trade structures (e.g. bilateral trade)
Stegmann et a 2022
New directions of the IAM community
32
Expand the models to represent new
sectors and dynamics related to
sustainability/wellbeing:
- Materials and circular economy
- Mineral supply curves
- New trade structures (e.g. bilateral trade)
Connect the models with additional tools to
expand the scope of the potential research
questions
- Finer spatiotemporal scales
Bausch et al 2021
GCAM for scenario analysis
33
Climate policy
- Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs
- Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs)
- Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES)
Ou et al 2021
Van de Ven et al 2023
GCAM for scenario analysis
34
Climate policy
- Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs
- Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs)
- Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES)
Energy system
- Alternative technological pathways
- Different energy/fuel costs
Sampedro et al 2020
GCAM for scenario analysis
35
Climate policy
- Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs
- Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs)
- Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES)
Energy system
- Alternative technological pathways
- Different energy/fuel costs
AFOLU
- Land Constraints (afforestation target)
- Alternative yield productivity pathways
Calvin et al 2014
Global bioenergy consumption in 2050 and 2095
GCAM for scenario analysis
36
Climate policy
- Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs
- Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs)
- Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES)
Energy system
- Alternative technological pathways
- Different energy/fuel costs
AFOLU
- Land Constraints (afforestation target)
- Alternative yield productivity pathways
Water
- Water availability/constraints
Turner et al 2018
Global water withdrawals by source
Adding new structures/sectors
37
- New module for minerals (and mineral trade)
- Endogenous macroeconomic module: GCAM-MACRO
- Endogenous hydropower
- …
GCAM Ecosystem: multiple SDG analysis
38
Iyer et al, 2018, evaluated the effects of the NDC
implementation in multiple SDG indicators

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Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable development.pdf

  • 1. Assessing synergies and trade-offs for health and sustainable development OECD Environmental Outlook “Integrated policies for the triple planetary crisis” OECD, Paris, February 19th 2024 Jon Sampedro – jon.sampedro@bc3research.org A view from the integrated assessment modelling perspective
  • 2. Background 2 Van Beek et al 2020 IAMs are widely applied tools for scenario analysis
  • 3. Background 3 EVOLUTION OF GCAM https://gcims.pnnl.gov/community IAMs are moving towards more holistic sustainability assessment
  • 4. GCAM/IAM Structure 4 - Socieconomics: - Population - GDP growth - Costs / efficiencies for energy technologies - Agricultural/land costs, crop yields, profitability, water/fertilizer requirements and carbon contents - Water runoff/availability - Depletable and renewable resource supply curves - Policies in place: - Emission constraints - Temperature limits - Renewables / efficiency targets - Land constraints / afforestation targets - ENERGY SYSTEM: - Demand and flows - Technology mix by sector - Energy prices - AFOLU: - Land allocation - Forest and agricultural production by crop - Commodity prices - Food/Feed balances - WATER: - Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses (e.g. irrigation or municipal) - EMISSIONS: - GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech (24 species) - CLIMATE: - Radiative forcing / temperature increase - CO2 concentrations - +Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR) - ECONOMY - Policy Costs - Carbon prices INPUTS OUTPUTS
  • 5. 5 - ENERGY SYSTEM: - Demand and flows - Technology mix by sector - Energy prices - AFOLU: - Land allocation - Forest and agricultural production by crop - Commodity prices - Food/Feed balances - WATER: - Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses (e.g. irrigation or municipal) - EMISSIONS: - GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech (24 species) - CLIMATE: - Radiative forcing / temperature increase - CO2 concentrations - +Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR) - ECONOMY - Policy Costs - Carbon prices OUTPUTS Van de Ven et al 2023 Ou et al 2021 Turner et al 2018 Sampedro et al 2020 Calvin et al 2014
  • 6. 6 - Socieconomics: - Population - GDP growth - Costs / efficiencies for energy technologies - Agricultural/land costs, crop yields, profitability, water/fertilizer requirements and carbon contents - Water runoff/availability - Depletable and renewable resource supply curves - Policies in place: - Emission constraints - Temperature limits - Renewables / efficiency targets - Land constraints / afforestation targets - ENERGY SYSTEM: - Demand and flows - Technology mix by sector - Energy prices - AFOLU: - Land allocation - Forest and agricultural production by crop - Commodity prices - Food/Feed balances - WATER: - Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses (e.g. irrigation or municipal) - EMISSIONS: - GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech (24 species) - CLIMATE: - Radiative forcing / temperature increase - CO2 concentrations - +Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR) - ECONOMY - Policy Costs - Carbon prices INPUTS OUTPUTS How can we move forward towards sustainability analysis?
  • 8. 8 “GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools Air pollution (AP) and health
  • 9. GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health 9 Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst) Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but useful for scenario intercomparison Possibility to assess health co-benefits for human health attributable to ambient air pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:
  • 10. GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health 10 Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst) Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but useful for scenario intercomparison Possibility to assess health co-benefits for human health attributable to ambient air pollution, and compare to mitigation costs: - Alternative regional mitigation efforts Markandya et al 2018
  • 11. GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health 11 Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst) Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but useful for scenario intercomparison Possibility to assess health co-benefits for human health attributable to ambient air pollution, and compare to mitigation costs: - Alternative regional mitigation efforts - Different technological pathways Sampedro et al 2020
  • 12. GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health 12 Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst) Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but useful for scenario intercomparison Possibility to assess health co-benefits for human health attributable to ambient air pollution, and compare to mitigation costs: - Alternative regional mitigation efforts - Different technological pathways - Comparison of alternative real-world policies Sampedro et al 2021
  • 14. 14 “GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools Land/Biodiversity
  • 15. GCAM Ecosystem: Land 15 Use the GCAM Land-data-system (Moirai) to protect land areas -> i.e., biodiversity purposes Di Vittorio et al, 2023 show the implications of doubling protected land area The study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change * Large implications for bioenergy production! Global land allocation by land type Primary energy consumption under different land availability constraints
  • 16. GCAM Ecosystem: multiple SDG analysis 16 Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018)
  • 17. GCAM Ecosystem: multiple SDG analysis 17 Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018) - Combined GCAM outputs with tools from the Ecosystem
  • 18. GCAM Ecosystem: multiple SDG analysis 18 Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018) - Combined GCAM outputs with tools from the Ecosystem
  • 19. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers 19 We are developing a GCAM version that includes multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
  • 20. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers 20 We are developing a GCAM version that includes multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles): - Residential energy Sampedro et al in review
  • 21. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers 21 We are developing a GCAM version that includes multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles): - Residential energy - Food Waldhoff et al in prep
  • 22. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers 22 We are developing a GCAM version that includes multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles): - Residential energy - Food - Transportation sector Van de Ven et al in prep 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 Passenger transport service use in 2050 relative to 2015 Reference Ref_PassDecarb Ref_PassDecarb_Deciles biolim biolim_PassDecarb biolim_PassDecarb_Deciles
  • 23. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers 23 We are developing a GCAM version that includes multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles): - Residential energy - Food - Transportation sector Several data challenges for a global version: - Energy services and food from regional balances are allocated to different consumers based on assumptions instead of “real data” - Active conversations across modelling teams
  • 24. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers 24 We are developing a GCAM version that includes multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles): - Residential energy - Food - Transportation sector Several data challenges for a global version: - Energy services and food from regional balances are allocated to different consumers based on assumptions instead of “real data” - Active conversations across modelling teams In GCAM-Europe we will disaggregate 60 consumer-types using country-level HBS
  • 25. Challenges 25 Transitioning from unidirectional model connections to “hard-linking” (e.g., adding feedbacks): - Trade-offs between accuracy and usability (e.g., gcamwrapper) Integration of the different impacts obtained by the tools - E.g., how to combine impacts on crop yields from O3 exposure and temperature or precipitation changes Diverse disciplines and backgrounds -> scientists speaking “different languages” (e.g., scales) Difficult to develop such interdisciplinary project proposals
  • 26. Some takeaways 26 The modelling community is evolving towards more holistic analyses in order to provide more complete information to global and regional stakeholders: - Important to listen beyond scenario co-creation Considering wide environmental (SDG-related) impacts is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of any policy action - Help to the acceptability of the climate policies We need to integrate scientists with very different disciplines to build even more integrated models and tools to address new transdisciplinary research questions
  • 27. Thank you for your attention 27
  • 28. 28
  • 31. New directions of the IAM community 31 Expand the models to represent new sectors and dynamics related to sustainability/wellbeing: - Materials and circular economy - Mineral supply curves - New trade structures (e.g. bilateral trade) Stegmann et a 2022
  • 32. New directions of the IAM community 32 Expand the models to represent new sectors and dynamics related to sustainability/wellbeing: - Materials and circular economy - Mineral supply curves - New trade structures (e.g. bilateral trade) Connect the models with additional tools to expand the scope of the potential research questions - Finer spatiotemporal scales Bausch et al 2021
  • 33. GCAM for scenario analysis 33 Climate policy - Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs - Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs) - Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES) Ou et al 2021 Van de Ven et al 2023
  • 34. GCAM for scenario analysis 34 Climate policy - Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs - Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs) - Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES) Energy system - Alternative technological pathways - Different energy/fuel costs Sampedro et al 2020
  • 35. GCAM for scenario analysis 35 Climate policy - Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs - Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs) - Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES) Energy system - Alternative technological pathways - Different energy/fuel costs AFOLU - Land Constraints (afforestation target) - Alternative yield productivity pathways Calvin et al 2014 Global bioenergy consumption in 2050 and 2095
  • 36. GCAM for scenario analysis 36 Climate policy - Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs - Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs) - Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES) Energy system - Alternative technological pathways - Different energy/fuel costs AFOLU - Land Constraints (afforestation target) - Alternative yield productivity pathways Water - Water availability/constraints Turner et al 2018 Global water withdrawals by source
  • 37. Adding new structures/sectors 37 - New module for minerals (and mineral trade) - Endogenous macroeconomic module: GCAM-MACRO - Endogenous hydropower - …
  • 38. GCAM Ecosystem: multiple SDG analysis 38 Iyer et al, 2018, evaluated the effects of the NDC implementation in multiple SDG indicators