Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Workshop on Asian Livestock: Challenges, opportunities and the Response, Bangkok, 16‐17 August 2012

1. Asian Livestock
Challenges, Opportunities
and the Response
August 16‐17, 2012
Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok

2. Health at the livestock‐policy
interface
Jimmy Smith
Director General
International Livestock Research Institute
August 16‐17, 2012
Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok

3. OUTLINE
Global trends in meat and milk
Livestock and their keepers
Main drivers of demand and supply
Livestock and the “3 healths”
Human health & nutrition
Animal health
Ecosystem health
Some prescriptions and policy advice

4. ILRI
•a member of the CGIAR Consortium which conducts livestock, food and
environmental research
to help alleviate poverty and increase food security,
while protecting the natural resource base.
India
Mali
700 staff
54% from developing
countries
more than 30 scientific
disciplines China
2012 budget USD 60 million Vietnam
ILRI works with a range of
research & development
partners Laos
across 7 CGIAR research
programs Nigeria
Mozambique
Kenya
Ethiopia Thailand

5. Outline
• Global trends in meat and milk
– Livestock and their keepers
– Main drivers of demand and supply

6. Livestock in developing countries
70% of the world’s livestock (18.5 billion head) are in
DCs
• 15 billion poultry: (70% in Asia)
• 1.6 billion shoats: (44% in Asia)
• 1.2 billion bovines: (49% in Asia)
• 0.6 billion pigs: (84% in Asia)
Density of poor
livestock keepers
Faostat, 2012

7. Livestock keepers in developing countries
One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock
70% of the rural and 25% of the urban poor depend on livestock
600 million in south Asia
300 million in sub Saharan Africa
0 or no
data
Density of poor
livestock keepers
ILRI, 2012

8. Role of poor livestock‐keepers as agriculture
transitions from traditional to urbanized
Development %agric in %_Livestock in Demand for livestock Smallholder roles
stage GDP agric GDP products
Traditional 30‐50 15‐45 Rural and urban poor – Smallholders
agricultural small quantities competitive;
societies informal markets
Transforming 15‐25 18‐50 Increased quantity
societies demanded
Urbanized 6‐9 30‐50 Quantity but especially Complex value
societies quality demands chains; vertical
coordination;
smallholders not
competitive unless
where labour and
inputs benefit
Smallholders have
advantages – but not
everywhere 8

9. Structure of poultry sector in Cambodia,
Vietnam and Thailand
Adapted from Otte et al.,
2008
Cambodia Vietnam Thailand
GDP $2,850 GDP $3,005 GDP $8,000
Ag GDP 39% Ag GDP 21% Ag GDP 11%
But smallholder systems can persist even when intensive systems take off

10. Into the future: demand driven revolution
The 4 billion people who
live on less than $10 a day
(primarily in developing
countries), represent a food
market of about US$ 2.9
trillion per year.
(Hammond et al 2007).
Consumption of meat
and milk in developing
countries is forecast to
increase faster than that
for any crop product
(IAASTD 2007).
Rosegrant et al. 2009

11. Global Meat Trends 1990-2009
Production Trade

12. Outline
•Livestock and the “3 healths”
– Human health & nutrition
– Animal health
– Ecosystem health

13. Health of people, livestock and
ecosystems are interdependent
ONE HEALTH
EcoHealth
Livestock
Human health
Human health Cultures
health Societies
Economies
Institutions
Wildlife
health
Agroecosystem health
Adapted from EstherSchelling, STI

14. Health One a: Livestock and nutrition
Across a range of developing countries, livestock contribute 6-
36% of protein and 2-12% of calories (Nzuma & Randolph,
2008)
Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure
people (Gerber et al, 2007)
Fish account for half the animal protein for the 400 million
poorest people in Africa and South Asia (FAO, 2009).
Small amounts of animal source foods have large benefits on
child growth, cognition & pregnancy outcomes (Neumann et al,
2003)
A small number of countries bear most of the burden of
malnutrition
One billion people are hungry but 2 billion are over-nourished:

15. Health One b: Livestock and human
health
• 60% of human diseases shared with animals (Taylor et al, Woolhose
et al)
• 75% of emerging diseases are zoonotic (Jones et al,)
• 25% of the human infectious disease burden in least developed
countries is zoonotic (12%) or recently emerged (13%) from animals
(Grace et al,)
• The top 13 zoonoses are responsible for at least 2.4 billion cases of
illness and 2.2 million human deaths each year (ILRI, 2012)
• Emerging zoonotic diseases associated with intensive systems with
hotspots in western US and western Europe (ILRI, 2012)
• High burden of neglected zoonotic diseases associated with poor
livestock keepers with hotspots in India, Nigeria and Ethiopia (ILRI,
2012)

18. Health two: livestock health
• Transboundary disease e.g. PPR, CSF, ND, FMD
– Most are controlled in developed countries: avoidable losses
– Massive under-reporting in poor countries: estimated 99.8% of
notifiable disease cases are not reported (ILRI 2012)
• Endemic disease e.g. parasites, viral diarrhoea and respiratory
disease, reproductive disease, lameness, mastitis
– Parasitic diseases are mainly a problem of smallholder systems,
production diseases of intensive systems
– Some estimate more costly than TAD (BMGF, 2012)
• Emerging disease (most are TAD) e.g. HPAI, PRRS, BT in Europe
– Exotic diseases are at home somewhere in the globe: many in
Africa
– As we speak, ASF in 2 European countries. Ebola outbreak E
Africa
– Cost $80 billion between 1997-2009 (World Bank 2012)

19. Annual losses from selected diseases –
Africa and South Asia
Estimates from BMGF

20. Some more recent estimates of animal
disease costs & losses

21. Health Three: Agro-ecosystem health
• Livestock a source of green house gases
• Livestock feed competes with staple crops and
biofuel and other uses of water
• Livestock a source of disease spillover to wildlife
• But an important source of organic matter for soil
fertility
• Permanent pastures potentially important for carbon
sequestration
• Production efficiency key to reducing C footprints

22. Additional food needed
1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to
2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)
Additional grains
1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
Human
Livestock
consumption
430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
458 million MT
Biofuels
160 million MT

23. Production efficiency – developed countries
Feed, breed,
health =
4 fold milk
increase
23
Capper et al., 2009

24. Climate change
What will happen to feed resources?
diseases? productivity?
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050
Courtesy of Andy Jarvis

25. Outline
• Prescription: Sustainable intensification

26. Sustainable intensification:
prescriptions for human health
Manage disease at the animal
source not the human victim
Invest in One Health systems for
zoonoses prevention and control
Promote risk-based and incentive-
based food safety system

27. Sustainable intensification:
prescriptions for animal health
Support smallholder systems to improve
production and productivity
Animal health services Innovation, technology,
multiple stakeholders
A whole-value-chain-development approach
Consumers
Major intervention with development partners
Value chain development team + research partners

28. Sustainable intensification:
prescriptions for ecosystem health
Managing externalities
Improvements in ruminant production – large
production gaps for ruminants in developing world
Reduced livestock-induced deforestation
Manure management (feed additives, methane
production, regulations for manure disposal)
Livestock systems in PES –including carbon credits

29. Key Advice to Policy-Makers
• Surveillance: “Re-incentivise disease
reporting”
• Resource allocation: “Base allocation
on Multiple Burden Approach”
• Delivery: “Health is too important to
leave to doctors”
• Cross-cutting: “Support innovations
at all levels”

30. Conclusion
The big picture
• Feeding the world
is possible
• Sustaining the natural
resource base is possible
• Reducing absolute
poverty is possible
• Improving the health of
•Acknowledgements: ILRI research included in this presentation
people, animals and the was funded by a number of donors
•Contributors: Delia Grace, Mario Herrero, Derek Baker, Tom
planet is possible Randolph, Shirley Tarawali, Jeff Gilbert and others