Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari

Risk Assessment
-
Assessing and understanding
risk and integrating risk
management in development
planning
Roberto Rudari (roberto.rudari@cimafoundation.org)
CIMA Research Foundation

OUTLINE
•  Scope of Training
•  Role of Risk Assessment in DRM
•  Terms & Definitions
•  Risk Assessment Process
•  Risk Identification, Analysis, Evaluation
•  Risk Mapping

Scope of Training
•  Focus on the processes and methods of
risk assessment and mapping in the
prevention, preparedness and planning
Stages
•  Understanding the role o Risk Assessment
within the broader framework of disaster
risk management
•  Understanding the importance of a multi-
hazard and multi-risk approach

Scope of Risk Assessment
•  provide a risk management instrument for disaster
management authorities, and also other policy-makers,
public interest groups, civil society organisations and other
public or private stakeholders involved or interested in the
management and reduction of disaster risks;
•  contribute to the development of knowledge-based
disaster prevention policies at different levels of
government and among different policy competencies, as
national risk assessments involve the integration of risk
information from multiple sources;
•  inform decisions on how to prioritise and allocate
investments in prevention, preparedness and
reconstruction measures;
•  contribute to the raising of public awareness on disaster
prevention measures;

Risk Assessment & DRM
•  Risk assessment and mapping are the central components of a more
general process which identifies the capacities and resources available to
reduce the identified levels of risk, or the possible effects of a disaster
(capacity analysis), and considers the planning of appropriate risk
mitigation measures (capability planning), the monitoring and review of
hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities, as well as consultation and
communication of findings and results.
•  When carried out at national level, disaster risk assessments and risk
management can become essential inputs for planning and policies in a
number of areas of public and private activity.
•  Wide dissemination and awareness-raising are important steps to further
develop and fully integrate a risk prevention culture into sectoral policies,
which are often complex and involve many stakeholders
•  Risk maps generate a level of transparency which can help engage all
interested actors in society
•  Risk assessments deal with uncertainty and probabilities. These are the
necessary subjects of a rational debate about the level of risk a State, may
find acceptable when considering the costs of associated prevention and
mitigation measures

Terms & Definitions
Defining HAZARD (the active part of risk equation)
•  Hazard is a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or
condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts,
property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic
disruption, or environmental damage. Comment: […] In technical settings,
hazards are described quantitatively by the likely frequency of occurrence
of different intensities for different areas, as determined from historical
data or scientific analysis. (UNISDR, 2009)
•  Natural hazard: Natural process or phenomenon that may cause loss of
life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods
and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.
Comment: Natural hazards are a sub-set of all hazards. The term is used
to describe actual hazard events as well as the latent hazard conditions
that may give rise to future events. Natural hazard events can be
characterized by their magnitude or intensity, speed of onset, duration,
and area of extent. (UNISDR, 2009)
•  Technological hazard: A hazard originating from technological or
industrial conditions, including accidents, dangerous procedures,
infrastructure failures or specific human activities, that may cause loss of
life, injury, illness or other health impacts, property damage, loss of
livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental
damage. (UNISDR, 2009) Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

Terms & Definitions
Defining Exposure and Vulnerability (the passive part of risk equation)
•  Exposure: People, property, systems, or other elements present in
hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. (UNISDR, 2009)
•  Vulnerability: The characteristics and circumstances of a community,
system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a
hazard. (UNISDR, 2009) In probabilistic/quantitative risk assessments the
term vulnerability expresses the part or percentage of Exposure that is
likely to be lost due to a certain hazard.
•  Resilience: The ability of a system, community or society exposed to
hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of
a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the
preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.
(UNISDR, 2009)
Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

Terms & Definitions
Defining Consequences (the holistic nature of risk)
•  Consequences are the negative effects of a disaster expressed in terms of human
impacts, economic and environmental impacts, and political/social impacts. (ISO
31010)
•  Human impacts are defined as the quantitative measurement of the following
factors: number of deaths, number of severely injured or ill people, and number of
permanently displaced people. (EU guidelines)
•  Economic and environmental impacts are the sum of the costs of cure or
healthcare, cost of immediate or longer-term emergency measures, costs of
restoration of buildings, public transport systems and infrastructure, property,
cultural heritage, etc., costs of environmental restoration and other environmental
costs (or environmental damage), costs of disruption of economic activity, value of
insurance pay-outs, indirect costs on the economy, indirect social costs, and other
direct and indirect costs, as relevant. (EU guidelines)
•  Political/social impacts are usually rated on a semi-quantitative scale and may
include categories such as public outrage and anxiety, encroachment of the
territory, infringement of the international position, violation of the democratic
system, and social psychological impact, impact on public order and safety,
political implications, psychological implications, and damage to cultural assets,
and other factors considered important which cannot be measured in single units,
such as certain environmental damage. (EU guidelines)

Terms & Definitions
Defining Risk (the different phases of facing risk)
•  Risk is a combination of the consequences of an event (hazard) and the
associated likelihood/probability of its occurrence. (ISO 31010)
•  Risk assessment is the overall process of risk identification, risk analysis,
and risk evaluation. (ISO 31010)
•  Risk identification is the process of finding, recognizing and describing
risks. (ISO 31010)
•  Risk analysis is the process to comprehend the nature of risk and to
determine the level of risk. (ISO 31010)
•  Risk evaluation is the process of comparing the results of risk analysis
with risk criteria to determine whether the risk and/or its magnitude is
acceptable or tolerable. (ISO 31010)
•  Risk criteria are the terms of reference against which the significance of a
risk is evaluated. (ISO 31010)

Terms & Definitions
Defining multi-risk assessment (working with multiple risk sources)
•  Hazard assessments determine the probability of occurrence of a certain
hazard of certain intensity.
•  Multi-hazard assessments determine the likelihood of occurrence of
different hazards either occurring at the same time or shortly following
each other, because they are dependent from one another or because
they are caused by the same triggering event or hazard, or merely
threatening the same elements at risk (vulnerable/ exposed elements)
without chronological coincidence.
•  Single-risk assessments determine the singular risk (i.e. likelihood and
consequences) of one particular hazard (e.g. flood) or one particular type
of hazard (e.g. flooding) occurring in a particular geographic area during a
given period of time.
•  Multi-risk assessments determine the total risk from several hazards
either occurring at the same time or shortly following each other, because
they are dependent from one another or because they are caused by the
same triggering event or hazard; or merely threatening the same elements
at risk (vulnerable/ exposed elements) without chronological coincidence.

Terms & Definitions
Mapping Risk (presenting the risk assessment)
•  Hazard map is a map that portrays levels of probability of a
hazard occurring across a geographical area. Such maps can
focus on one hazard only or include several types of hazards
(multi-hazard map).
•  Multi-hazard map is a map that portrays levels of probability
of several hazards occurring across a geographical area.
•  Risk map is a map that portrays levels of risk across a
geographical area. Such maps can focus on one risk only or
include different types of risks.
•  Risk scenario is a representation of one single-risk or multi-
risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected for the
purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for
which it is representative, or constitutes an informative
example or illustration.

Risk Assessment Scales - Time
Learn from the
Past
•  Loss
Accounting /
Forensic
Improve the
present
•  Short term
prevention
and
mitigation
actions
Look at the
future
•  Long terms
assessment,
long term
planning and
investment
Risk assessment should support informed decision in order to:

Risk Assessment Scales - space
National
level
•  National Risk Profiles definition
•  Coping capacity assessment/improvement
•  National DRM Policies (e.g. EWS)
•  Prioritization on HZDs / on Geographical areas
Province
level
•  Regional development plans
•  Infrastructure developments
Local/
municipality
level
•  Disaster Risk management Plans/Emergency Plans
•  Disaster risk reduction plans
•  Land use planning and regulations (zoning)
Community
level
•  commitment to DRR programs
•  awareness raising

Risk Assessment Process
•  Identification of a Coordinating authority
•  Involvement: public authorities, research and businesses,
non-governmental organisations and the wider general public.
•  Such actors in the RAP should:
–  (a) agree on the scoring criteria at the start of the assessment process,
–  (b) record the methods used and their level of uncertainty,
–  (c) note the justification for including or excluding specific risks,
–  (d) record the scores allocated to each risk and their justification,
–  (e) devise a protocol for the use of expert opinion
Sources: EU Guidelines on RA

Risk Assessment Process
•  Importance of public consultation
– Helps the recognition of the value of RA
– Prevents multiple initiatives that can pop up
notwithstanding the coordination action
– Improves awareness and perception

Phases of Risk Assessment within RMP
Establish context
Identify risks
analyse risks
evaluate risks
treat risks
Communicate&Consult
Monitor&Review
AssessRisk

DATA Collection
•  Prior to risk identification
proper data collection is
needed as a basis for the
whole process
•  In order to focus on the right
data to collect it is necessary to
have a good understanding of
the different risks in terms of
–  SOURCE,
–  PATHWAYS,
–  RECEPTORS,
–  CONSEQUENCE

The purpose of the risk identification stage is to find and
recognize all likely hazards and significant consequences
Because of the inherent complexity, risk identification usually
involves the elaboration of scenarios of potential risk
situations, which condense the realm of possibilities to a
limited number of identified situations.
A Risk scenario is a representation of one single-risk or
multi-risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected
for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular
type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an
informative example or illustration.
Risk identification

Single Risk Scenario (example)
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION
NAME, TYPERAYLWAYS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION
NAME, TYPESTREATSLINEAR
POINT
AREAL
ELEMENT GEOMETRY
LOCATIONNAMERAYLWAY STATIONS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION
NAME, TYPEAIRPORTS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION
ACTIVITY TYPE,
SUBSTANCES
HIGHLY HAZARDOUS
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION, EXPOSED
PEOPLE
NAMEHOSPITALS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
PEOPLE
NAME, TYPESCHOOLS
ELEMENT CLASSIFICATIONTYPE, PROPERTYELETRIC LINES & OTHER
LIFELINES
N° EXPOSED PEOPLERESIDENT POPULATIONPOPOLUATION CENSUS
POLYGONS
RISK SCENARIO FIGURESUseful attribute
(example)
LAYER (example)
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION
NAME, TYPERAYLWAYS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION
NAME, TYPESTREATSLINEAR
POINT
AREAL
ELEMENT GEOMETRY
LOCATIONNAMERAYLWAY STATIONS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION
NAME, TYPEAIRPORTS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION
ACTIVITY TYPE,
SUBSTANCES
HIGHLY HAZARDOUS
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
PEOPLE
NAMEHOSPITALS
LOCATION, ELEMENT
PEOPLE
NAME, TYPESCHOOLS
ELEMENT CLASSIFICATIONTYPE, PROPERTYELETRIC LINES & OTHER
LIFELINES
N° EXPOSED PEOPLERESIDENT POPULATIONPOPOLUATION CENSUS
POLYGONS
RISK SCENARIO FIGURESUseful attribute
(example)
LAYER (example)

Multi-Risk Scenario (Layering)

Multi-Risk Scenario (Cascading)

Multi-Risk Scenario (Cascading)
Natech
Total mass of Gasoline in soil
Total mass of Gasoline in water
Flood Scenario

Risk Scenarios building guidelines
•  Context: National risk identifications
•  Hazard level: consider at least all significant hazards of a intensity that
would on average occur once or more often in 100 years (i.e. all hazards
with a annual probability of 1% or more)
•  Impacts: consider at least scenarios with consequences that represent
significant potential impacts, e.g. number of affected people greater than
50, economic and environmental costs above € 100 million, and political/
social impact considered significant or very serious (level 4).
•  High Impact extremes: Where the likely impacts exceed a threshold of
0.6 % of gross national income (GNI) also less likely hazards or risk
scenarios should be considered (e.g. volcanic eruptions, tsunamis).
•  If the likelihood of a hazard leading to impacts exceeding the above
threshold is more than one in ten years, at least three scenarios with at
least three different intensities should be included in the assessment.
•  Temporal horizon: at first the risk identification process should consider
risks that may appear in the immediate future, i.e. one to five years
ahead
•  More advanced studies should look also to emerging behaviors (CC
perspective) and risks (development, demography)

From Risk identification to
Risk Analysis
Scenarios must be devised
in the most inclusive way
and may refer to rough
estimates or qualitative
analysis
AnalyseRiskIdentifyRisk
RISK SCENARIOS
Scenarios must be
expressed AMAP in
quantitative terms and
characterized in terms of
probabilities

The purpose of the Risk analysis is to comprehend the nature of risk and
to determine the level of risk. For every risk and risk scenario identified
in the previous risk identification stage, the risk analysis process
carries out a detailed (and if possible quantitative) estimation of the
probability of its occurrence and the severity of the potential
impacts.
The assessment of the probability of an event or hazard should be based,
where possible, on the historical frequency of events of similar scale
and available statistical data relevant for an analysis of the main
drivers, which can help to pick up on accelerating trends, e.g. due to
climate change.
The assessment of the level of impact should be in quantitative terms
Risk Analysis - Scope

Hazard analysis
•  (a) Geographical analysis (location, extent)
•  (b) Temporal analysis (frequency, duration, etc.)
•  (c) Dimensional analysis (scale, intensity)
•  (d) Probability of occurrence
Vulnerability analysis
•  (a) Identification of elements and people potentially at risk
(exposure)
•  (b) Identification of vulnerability factors/ impacts (physical,
economic, environmental, social/political)
•  (c) Assessment of likely impacts
•  (d) Analysis of self-protection capabilities reducing exposure or
•  vulnerability
Risk Analysis - Phases

Risk Analysis – Hazard Analysis
Mapping the underlying causes and processes

Mapping the specific characteristics: CHINA
•  Sudden: A flash flood may occur in a very short time beyond people’s
awareness and control.
•  Frequent: The frequency of occurrence is very high. For example, from
1950– 2003, 42 flash floods took place on average in Hubei Province every
year and a total of 195 flash floods happened in 1996 alone.
•  Seasonal: Flash floods occur most frequently from June–August,
accounting for about 80% of the total number of flash floods in an entire
year.
•  Destructive: Due to their sudden nature, flash floods are very hazardous
and destructive.
•  Regional: Flash floods often take place in areas with high precipitation and
relevant geographic conditions.
•  Mass occurrence: Due to the influence of storms and their coverage, flash
floods often occur in a small drainage area or at several points
simultaneously.
•  Simultaneous: Debris flows, hill collapses and flash floods often take
place simultaneously in a region.
•  Converted: Flash floods may be converted into debris flows, or hill
collapses into debris flows, or flash floods into hill collapses, and so on.

Mapping the specific Causes: CHINA
•  Rainfall (main cause, as opposed to dam
failures)
•  Topographic and geological factors
•  Economic and social factors
•  Random resource development in mountain
regions
•  Improper selection of house location
•  Irrational construction and flood relief
obstacles in hilly regions

Hazard analysis
The use of Hazard matrices
T<20 yrs 20<T<50 yrs 50<T<200 yrs 200<T<500 yrs

V = f(E, EI, S)
E represent a vector of element-at-risk indicators,
EI of exposure indicators
S of susceptibility indicators
Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis
Social VulnerabilityPhysical Vulnerability
Holistic approach to
Vulnerability

Point
Scale

Residen'al
buildings

Health
Structures

Museums

Public
buildings

Schools

Recep've
structures
(Hotels)

Recep've
structures
(Campsites)

Commercial
structures

Industrial
plants

Religious
buildings

Livestock
facili'es

Puntual
Infrastructures

Sports
facili'es

Linear
Scale
Linear
infrastructures

Areal
Scale
Land
Use

TYPE
ID
MAP
NAME
COORDINATES
QUOTA
HEIGHT
FLOORS
NUMBER
BASEMENT
Number
of
entriesSide Position Note
Form Width Lenght Plan
VOLUME
AREA
OCCUPIED
PROXIMITY
TO
RIVER/COAST
MATERIALS
AGE
NUMBER
OF
PEOPLE
CONTEINED
OTHER
INFORMATION
CONTENT
DANGEROUS
MATERIALS
INFLUENCE
AREA
ENTRY
DIMENSION
(Description,
images,
...)
TYPE
ID
TYPE
OF
INFRASTRUCTURE
MAP
NAME
COORDINATES Start End
LENGHT
ELEVATION
MATERIAL
AVERAGE
SLOPE
CONNECTIONS
SIGNIFICANCE
GENERAL
DESCRIPTION
OTHER
INFORMATION
LAND
USE
ID
MAP
NAME
COORDINATES
QUOTA
AREA
OCCUPIED
PROXIMITY
TO
RIVER/COAST
GENERAL
DESCRIPTION
ACCESSIBILITY

OTHER
INFORMATION (Description,
images,
...)
IDENTIFICATION OF ELEMENTS
AT RISK & EXPOSURE
CHARACTERIZATION

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5
Damage[%]
water depth [m]
Vulnerability curves for point scale
Residential buildings
Museums
Health structures
Hotels
Commercial structures
Industrial structures
Camping
Public buildings
Sports facilities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5
Damage[%]
water depth [m]
Vulnerability curve for linear
infrastructures
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Damage[%]
Water depth [m]
Vulnerability functions at areal scale
Continous urban
tissue
Discontinuous urban
tissue
industrial-commercial
build
Crops
vineyards, olive
groves, orchards
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS

BUILDING
A:

No
Underground
ﬂoors

Entrance
super
elevation
0,6
m

Building
Height
6
m

BUILDING
B:

1
Underground
Floor

Entrance
at
street
level

Building
Height
4
m

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Damage[%]
Water depth [m]
Vulnerability curve for residential
buildings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Damage[%]
Water depth [m]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Damage[%]
Water depth [m]0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4
Damage[%]
Water depth [m]
Vulnerability function for different type of
residential buildings
Generic residential
building
Residential building
type A
Residential building
type B
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – LOCAL SCALE FUNCTIONS MODIFICATION

RESIDUAL
FUNCTIONALITY
HIGH
0,7-‐1 RESIDUAL
FUNCTIONALITY
MEDIUM
0,4-‐0,7 RESIDUAL
FUNCTIONALITY
LOW
0,0-‐0,4
SINGLE
ELEMENT
The
building
is
accessible.
The

entrances
are
available.It's
not

recommended
to
use
the
elevator.
The
building
is

mainly
accessible
by

emergency
staff.
Not
all
entrances

are
available.
It's
not
recommended
to

use
the
elevator.
The
building
is

not
accessible.
All
entrances
are

unreachable.
LINEAR
SCALE
Presence
of
small
floods.
The
road
is

practicable
by
all
vehicles.
It
is
not

recommended
transit
for
pedestrians

and
two-‐wheeled
vehicles.
Road
partially
flooded.
The
road

is
accessible
only
by
emergency

vehicles.Possibility
of
landslides.
Road
closed.
The
infrastructure
is

destroyed,
flooded
or
blocked

by
debris.
AREAL
SCALE
The
area
is
accessible
to

all.
Presence
of
localized
flooding.
Partially
flooded
area.
Permitted

access
only
to
emergency
vehicles.
Completely
flooded
area.
The

main
accesses
and
buildings

are
unreachable.
-‐
(Studi
progetto
inter.reg.

Ge.Ri.A
–
modiﬁcato)

SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – the Concept of Residual Functionality

0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4
Residualfunctionality[%]
Water depth [m]
Residual functionality curves for point scale
Schools, museums,
public buildings,..
Residential buildings,
hotel, commercial
structures
Health structures
Camping
Industrial plants
Vehicle Description
UCL-‐ Local Control Unit: this vehicle is used in
national mobile columns for natural disasters.
It can be used with maximum water depth of
0,3
meters.
4x4 Vehicle: this vehicle can be used with a
maximum
water
depth
of
0,5
meters.
Amphibious vehicle: it is used in case of
natural disasters for the rescue of people and
things in areas affected by flooding, or where
the water level does not allow the transit of
earth
vehicles.
"Polisoccorso
logistico":
this
vehicle
is
similar

to
the
emergency
vehicle,
but
has
also

logistical
equipment
that
allow
it
to
be
used
in

particular
in
the
initial
period
of
calamity
as
it

allow
the
team
to
operate
independently
from

central
logistics
base
of
the
mobile
column.
It

can
be
used
with
maximum
water
depth
of
0,5

meters.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Residualfunctionality
Water depth [m]
Residual functionality curve for linear
scale
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5
Residualfunctionality
Water depth [m]
Residual finctionality curve for areal
scale (urban and commercial areas)
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – the Concept of Residual Functionality

Risk Analysis
MERGING HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY INTO RISK – RISK MATRIX

Risk evaluation is the process of comparing the
results of risk analysis with risk criteria to
determine whether the risk and/or its magnitude
is acceptable or tolerable.
Risk criteria are the terms of reference against
which the significance of a risk is evaluated. The
risk criteria may include associated costs and
benefits, legal requirements, socioeconomic and
environmental factors, concerns of
stakeholders,etc.
Risk evaluation is used to make decisions about
the significance of risks whether each specific
risk should be accepted or treated.
Risk Analysis – Risk Evaluation

Risk Assessment
MITIGATION MEASURES ARE PRIORITIZED ON THE BASIS OF THE RISK
ASSESSMENT WICH THEY MODIFY IN TURN

The
Residual
Risk
is
the
result
of
planning
and

permanent
risk
mi:ga:on
ac:ons

Interven:on
on
the

Hazard
e.g.:

Hydraulic

interven:on

improving
river

defenses

Interven:on
on
the

Exposed
e.g.:

Delocaliza:on
of

buildings
from
hi-‐
risk
areas
Three-‐years
interven:on

programs;
Risk
Reduc:on

Plans

Residual Risk after permanent risk mitigation measures
Interven:on
on

the Vulnerability
e.g:
Planning

rules
for
the
use

of
ground
and

underground

Residual
Risk
(RR)
must
be
faced,
if
it
realizes,
with
real
7me

interven7on
by
Civil
Protec:on

Uff. Previsione e Prevenzione
Flood area before the
intervention
Area inondabile
dopo l‘intervento
e.g.: electric control
board relocation
Risk Assessment
Flood area
after the
intervention

A simple example of Residual Risk
T=50 yrs
T=200 yrs
Residual
Risk
Local defense measure
against flooding to
reduce the inidation
frequency
High vulnerability to Very
frequent inundation
(T=5-10 years)
Very low probabilities
of rare events remain –
Civil Protection
warnings, insurance
Risk Assessment

Interven:on
on
the

Hazard
e.g.:
Contrast

and
urgent
interven:on

(Sand
Sacks)

Interven:on
on
Exposed

elements
e.g.:
Aid
to

popula:on,
delocaliza:on

of
person
and
goods.

Interven:on
on
Vulnerability

e.g.:
Ac:va:on
of
speciﬁc

ac:on
in
civil
Protec:on
/

Emergency
Plans

The
system
is
usually
focused
on
human
lives,
but
at
the
same
:me
it
can
act
as
a
loss

reduc:on
measure
eﬀec:vely.

Real-Time Residual Risk management
Risk Assessment

No Action
- No measure is proposed to reduce the flood risk in the APSFR or other defined area
Prevention
a Avoidance - Measure to prevent the location of new or additional receptors in
flood prone areas, such as land use planning policies or regulation
b Removal or relocation - Measure to remove receptors from flood prone
areas, or to relocate receptors to areas of lower probability of flooding and/or of lower
hazard
c Reduction - Measure to adapt receptors to reduce the adverse
consequences in the event of a flood actions on buildings, public networks, etc...
d Other - Other measure to enhance flood risk prevention (may include, flood
risk modeling and assessment, flood vulnerability assessment, maintenance
programmes or policies etc...)
FLOOD Management Measures

Protection
a Natural flood management / runoff and catchment management - Measures to
reduce the flow into natural or artificial drainage systems, such as overland flow interceptors
and / or storage, enhancement of infiltration, etc and including in-channel , floodplain works
and the reforestation of banks, that restore natural systems to help slow flow and store
water.
b Water flow regulation - Measures involving physical interventions to regulate
flows, such as the construction, modification or removal of water retaining structures (e.g.,
dams or other on-line storage areas or development of existing flow regulation rules), and
which have a significant impact on the hydrological regime.
c Channel, Coastal and Floodplain Works - Measures involving physical
interventions in freshwater channels, mountain streams, estuaries, coastal waters and flood-
prone areas of land, such as the construction, modification or removal of structures or the
alteration of channels, sediment dynamics management, dykes, etc.
d Surface Water Management - Measures involving physical interventions to reduce
surface water flooding, typically, but not exclusively, in an urban environment, such as
enhancing artificial drainage capacities or though sustainable drainage systems (SuDS).
e Other - Other measure to enhance protection against flooding, which may include
flood defense asset maintenance programmes or policies

Preparedness
a Flood Forecasting and Warning - Measure to establish or
enhance a flood forecasting or warning system
b Emergency Event Response Planning / Contingency planning -
Measure to establish or enhance flood event institutional emergency
response planning
c Public Awareness and Preparedness - Measure to establish or
enhance the public awareness or preparedness for flood events
d Other - Other measure to establish or enhance preparedness
for flood events to reduce adverse consequences

Recovery
a Individual and societal recovery - Clean-up and restoration
activities (buildings, infrastructure, etc); Health and mental health
supporting actions, incl. managing stress; Disaster financial assistance
(grants, tax), incl.disaster legal assistance, disaster unemployment
assistance; Temporary or permanent relocation; Other
b Environmental recovery - Clean-up and restoration activities
(with several sub-topics as mould protection, wellwater safety and
securing hazardous materials containers); Other
c Other – Lessons learnt from flood events; Insurance policies;
Other

EWS in Flash floods
NWP No NWP
Time Tc / Ts
SpaceLmet/Lhydro
Siccardi et al., JGR, 2005
Unreliable
Reliable
Single Basin
Multi Basin
Deterministic
Stochastic

Flood forecasting (No NWP)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1-ott-96
3-ott-96
5-ott-96
7-ott-96
9-ott-96
11-ott-96
13-ott-96
15-ott-96
17-ott-96
19-ott-96
21-ott-96
23-ott-96
25-ott-96
27-ott-96
29-ott-96
31-ott-96
2-nov-96
Q(m^3/s)
Predicted Hydrograph 2HM
Observations Datasets

Flood forecasting (NWP Deterministic)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1-ott-96
3-ott-96
5-ott-96
7-ott-96
9-ott-96
11-ott-96
13-ott-96
15-ott-96
17-ott-96
19-ott-96
21-ott-96
23-ott-96
25-ott-96
27-ott-96
29-ott-96
31-ott-96
2-nov-96
Q(m^3/s)
GCM LAM
Predicted Hydrograph 2HM
Data Assimilation
Observations
Datasets

Flood forecasting (NWP Stochastic)
EPS LEPS
Downscaling
Predicted Hydrographs
Peak discharge CDF
2HM
Data Assimilation
Parameter Set
Observations
Datasets
Probability
Re-weighting

Flood forecasting (NWP Stochastic MB)
EPS LEPS
Downscaling
Predicted Hydrographs
Dimensionless Peak discharge CDF
Data Assimilation
Parameter Set
Observations
Datasets
Probability
Re-weighting
HD

•  Use scales of visualization and analysis coherent with
the information
•  Use coherent symbols
•  Use coherent color coding throughout the whole Risk
Assessment Process and Risk Management as well
•  Link graphical choices with actions and priorities
•  Map the different elements of risk assessment separately
and the mix them together with increasing level of
complexity
•  The map is not a figure, the map tells the story of a risk
scenario
Communicating Risk Assessment
The importance of Risk maps

Phases of Risk Assessment
Establish context
Identify risks
analyse risks
evaluate risks
treat risks
Communicate&Consult
Monitor&Review
AssessRisk

Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari

Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (12)

Similar to Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari

Similar to Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari (20)

More from Sonia Calamiello

More from Sonia Calamiello (18)

Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari