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Customer Decision Support System
1.
International Research Journal
of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 10 | Oct -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 5.181 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 577 Customer Decision Support System Swapnil Shah1, Ketan Deshpande2, Dr. R.C. Jaiswal3 1Department of Computer Engineering, PICT, Maharashtra, India 2Department of ENTC Engineering, PICT, Maharashtra, India 3Associate Professor, Dept. of ENTC Engineering, PICT, Maharashtra, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***--------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract - E-commerce provides internet vendors with a vast quantity of data which can be leveraged to mine buying patterns of customers and derive useful insights into the data. This paper provides a prototype to provide a similar infrastructure for brick and mortar stores so they can use customer data in a decision support system to make various predictions about the buying habits of customers tostrategize better through the insights derived from the system. The prototype works by crowdsourcing data from various stores and keeping track of each individual user through a loyalty program. Key Words: BigData, Decision Support System, Data Mining, Business Intelligence, Pattern mining 1.INTRODUCTION The goal of the prototype presented in this paper is to provide a reliable and robust software system to provide insights about consumers to various shopkeepers and dealers participating in the program. It will help small businesses by suggesting ideal products to market to each costumer thereby increasing the chance of a successful sale. The Decision support system will also help predict the effectiveness of various freebies and discountsonincreasing the probability of a successful sale. Furthermore, the system will help predict the customer confidence i.e: the probability of a certain customerbuyinga certain product. This will be done by use of various parameters pertaining to the user demographic and historical buying patterns. Additionally, thesoftwarewill alsohelpclassifycustomersas high, medium and low priority based on the volume and frequency of their transactions. 1.1 Implementation The prototype will use the following for its implementation: Database: MongoDB MongoDB is chosen for the prototype since it supports unstructured data. This is useful asvariousvendors’data can be in various formats. Scripting language: Python Python provides inbuilt libraries such as scikitlearn and numpy which is useful for data processing applications as required for this project. 2. Architecture Decision support system will have the following modules: 1. Input stream: The data from the various small businesses will be uploaded via a web portal whichwillbean input stream to the databases. 2. Data cleaning module: This module will reduce the noise in the data and will identify variousparameterstoform uniform representations of the data. This helps with easier analysis and cleaning. 3. Databases: Three main databases will store the cleaned data: a. Customer: This database stores customer information such as age, gender, unique id, prior knowledge, brand awareness, etc. And this database is updated by the system with each new purchase. b. Products: This database stores various product parameters suchas product unique ID, brandname,features, reviews, etc. c. Transactions: This database will store each unique transaction done in the system. This helps to link product ID with Customer IDand is vitalto mine buying patternsofeach customer. 4. Business logic: This module stores the actual logic and contains the scripts for the algorithms used for data mining. 5. User Interface: This module is the display module and helps take input and provide output to the small businesses.
2.
International Research Journal
of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 10 | Oct -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 5.181 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 578 Fig -1: Architecture Diagram 3. Relevant mathematical model: Input: Datasets: x1, x2 - X1 = Transactional Dataset - X2 = Product Dataset Customer Data: =x1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6,x7 -x1 = name -x2 = age -x3 = gender -x4 = budget -x5 = immediacy -x6 = prior knowledge -x7 =product choice Output: x1, x2, x3, x4 -x1 = Confidence -x2 = Class of Customer -x3 = Effect of freebie on confidence -x4 = products with maximum confidence Success conditions: -Customer confidence calculated successfully -Correct error detection by error check. 4. Algorithms The algorithms used for pattern mining will be as follows: 1. To find customer confidence: Customer confidence is defined as the probability of a particular customer buying a particular product. Thiscanbe predicted by following the below assumptions: a. The higher the number ofalternatives,thelowerthe confidence in any single product. b. The higher the prior knowledge of theproducttype, the lower will be the confidence. c. The higher the reviews, the greater will be the confidence. d. The better the brand perception of the product, the higher will be the confidence. The steps for this algorithm are: 1. Narrow the list of products on sale down to the products within the customer range. Store this number as number of alternatives. 2. Find the prior knowledge of the customer aboutthe product type by checking transaction datasets for previous transactions of the same type. Store this as prior knowledge. Assume default if no data exists for the customer. 3. Calculate the z-score of the productreviewratingas compared to other products in the shortlist. 4. Compute the number of successful sales of the product in the demographic of the customer to find a popularity score. 5. Use the above scores against normalized scores of the entire bell curve and compute the z-score. This will correspond to the customer confidence in the particular product. 2. To predict effectoffreebiesoncustomerconfidence: The algorithm will work with the following steps: 1. The freebie value will be calculated by discounting the freebie price from the initial price. 2. The confidence will be computed for both freebie price and for the freebie price. 3. The percent change between the confidence will be computed. 4. The percent changes for each of the discount offers will be computed by repeating steps 1 to 3. 5. The discount offer showing the greatest amount of change will be polled and count incremented for that offer. 6. Steps 1 to 5 will be executed on various products. 7. The offer with the highest polling will finally be chosen. 3. To classify customer by priority: The algorithm works with the following assumption: The high priority customers are the ones with a high purchase volume and a high purchase frequency The medium priority customers are the ones with either a high purchase volume or a high purchase frequency. The low priority customers are the ones with neither a high purchase volume nor a high purchase frequency. The steps for the algorithm are as follows: 1. Analyse the demographic ofthecustomeraccording to gender and age.
3.
International Research Journal
of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 04 Issue: 10 | Oct -2017 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2017, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 5.181 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 579 2. Perform slicing operation on the transaction database to isolate entries belonging to the demographic. 3. Find medianpurchasevolumeandmedianpurchase frequency of the sliced demographic. 4. Increment count if chosen customer values exceed median values. 5. Assign priority according to count. 5. Results The Customer Decision Support system thus helps make the power of analytics accessible to small businesses by crowdsourcing data. The prototype was successfully simulated to show efficient and anonymous sharing of data. Lower sales times were also reported when the prototype was tested under observation. REFERENCES •Pavlou, P.A., and Gefen, D., ”Building Effective Online Marketplaces with Institution-Based Trust”, Information Systems Research, 15(1), 2004, pp. 37-59. • Hubl, G., and Trifts, V., ”Consumer Decision Making in Online Shopping Environments: The Effects of Interactive Decision Aids”, Marketing Science, 19(1), 2000, pp. 4-21. • Speier, C., and Morris, M.G., ”The Influence of Query Interface Design on Decision- Making Performance”, MIS Quarterly, 27(3), 2003, pp. 397-423. • Wang, W., and Benbasat, I., ”Interactive Decision Aids for Consumer Decision Making in E-Commerce:TheInfluenceof Perceived Strategy Restrictiveness”, MIS Quarterly, 33(2),2009, pp. 293-320.
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