This document summarizes a presentation on climate change preparedness and community engagement given to the Collier County Democratic Club. It discusses concerns about sea level rise, increased storminess, and heavy precipitation in coastal Southwest Florida. Projections show rising sea levels could lead to inundation, coastal erosion, and more frequent nuisance flooding. Warmer ocean temperatures are also leading to more intense hurricanes that are larger and move more slowly. The presentation outlines efforts in Collier County to understand vulnerability and plan for adaptation through projects with NOAA and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Regional collaboration between counties is also discussed as important for climate resilience planning.

1. Climate Change Preparedness and
Community Engagement
October 21, 2019
Collier County Democratic Club
Michael Savarese
The Water School
FGCU

2. Preparedness: For What
Coastal Southwest Florida concerned mostly with:
Sea-level rise (SLR), rate and magnitude
Storminess (when combined with SLR)
Excesses in precipitation
The effects:
Inundation from sea water / fresh water
Coastal erosion and deposition
Nuisance flooding

3. IPCC 2001
Regional
Regional
Global
Greenland: 7.2 m / 24 ft
Antarctica: 70 m / 230 ft
Global
52% of SLR 1972-2008
A very short primer . . .

4. Global Average Sea Level Inferred From
Tide-Gauge & Satellite Data
Church, J.A. and White, N.J. (2006)
125 mm (5”) since 1993
242 mm (10”) since 1870

5. SLR Projections for
21st Century
NOAA, 2017
IPCC, 2013
RCP 4.5 Paris Accord
RCP 8.5 Business as Usual

6. Uncertainties Surrounding Glacier Melting
30 January 2019

7. Sources: IPUMS NHGIS (population); NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather
and Climate Disasters (2018) (damage); NOAA (path and wind)
Rise in
Coastal
Population
& Cost of
Hurricanes
From J. Muller, FGCU

8. Katia, Irma, and Jose, Sept 8, 2017
Warmer Oceans: More Intense Storms that are Wetter, Larger,
Fuel More Quickly, & Travel Slower

9. Driven by Global Warming . . .

10. 4th warmest year
https://youtu.be/2S6JTLRmQdU

11. Atlantic Storm
Maximum Power Dissipation
PowerDissipationIndex(PDI)
Years
included:
1870-2006
Data Source: NOAA/TPC From J. Muller, FGCU

12. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
ScaledTemperature
PowerDissipationIndex(PDI)
Years
included:
1870-2006
Data Sources: NOAA/TPC, UKMO/HADSST1
Other Well-known Climatic Drivers of Hurricane Formation: El Niño Southern
Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
From J. Muller, FGCU

13. As the Earth’s atmosphere warms there is evidence that anthropogenic warming
causes a general weakening of summertime tropical circulation.
Tropical cyclones are carried along within their ambient environmental wind
Global time series of annual-mean tropical cyclone translation speed and their linear trends from 1949 - 2016. Gray shading
indicates 95% confidence bounds of the trend. Image credit: Kossin, 2018, A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation
speed, Nature volume 558, pages 104–107(2018).
Forward Speed
From J. Muller, FGCU

14. Impacts:
Red Mangroves Invading Eleocharis Freshwater Marsh

15. Case study: Mangrove Expansion
Mangrove Area
1927: 5,403 ha
2005: 7,281 ha
35% Increase
Ten Thousand Islands NWR
Up-slope
migration
In situ elevation
adjustment
Krauss et al. 2011. J. Coast. Conserv. 15, 629–638.

16. Pocking in the Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge
Andres & Savarese, 2016

17. Saltern Formation
Islands within RBNERR
Effects upon barrier islands

18. Sunny Day Tidal Flooding: Marco Island

19. Barrier Island Instability, Erosion, and Migration
Erosional Dune Scarp After Debby
Keewaydin Island
Back-barrier Mangroves on Beach
Keewaydin Island

20. Data from DEP’s Critically Eroded Beaches and
FL Assessment of Coastal Trends reports
Trends in Florida’s Beach Erosion

21. Everglades City after Irma

22. Preparedness: The Process
Understanding vulnerability
Adaptation planning to improve “resilience”
Implementation
Mitigation – changing carbon-use practices to
lessen effects

23. Connecting Science to Management &
Decision Making
NOAA’s Climate & Weather
Supercomputer

24. “Happenings in SWFL”
Collier NOAA project: Vulnerability analysis of
sea-level rise & storminess. Transition to
adaptation planning.
FL DEP Coastal Partnership Initiative project:
Vulnerability analysis for City of Sanibel.
Efforts at the national level: Congressman
Francis Rooney as a climate change advocate.
Desire for a regional “compact” for Collier, Lee,
and Charlotte Counties & their municipalities.

25. NOAA Project in Collier County
Alliance for Collier’s Coastal Resilience
• $1M through University of Florida & FGCU
• Collier County + 3 municipalities
• End users are urban, cultural, and natural resource
managers
• NOAA project funds a vulnerability analysis
• SLR + effects of storms
• To be followed by adaptation planning
• No mitigation component at this point
• www.fgcu.edu/accr/
• Email list serve

26. Scenarios for Probabilistic Inundation Risk Mapping
RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway; 4.5: Paris Accord
Based on latest SLR science, including
NOAA (2012, 2014, 2017)
RSL (Regional Sea Level)
Period ACUNE 2.0
SLR (ft)
Low Medium High
Current --- --- ---
2030 0.39 0.72 1.15
2060 0.82 1.77 3.38
2100 1.28 3.77 8.36

27. ACUNE products (products through year 2)
• ACUNE is an integrated web-based tool to enable end users to
develop coastal resiliency plan for flood protection, estuarine
preservation, and mangrove restoration
• ACUNE will include various products:
• Mangrove distribution maps in 2017, 2030, 2060, 2100
• Tropical cyclones for future climate (2030, 2060, 2100)
• Sea Level Rise scenarios (2030, 2060, 2100)
• Probabilistic coastal inundation maps for current and future climate
(2030, 2060, 2100)
• Beach impact & geomorphology maps for 2030, 2060, 2100
• Maximum inundation maps and economic impact maps for for IRMA
• Economic impact maps for future scenarios

28. 1% AEP and 0.2%AEP Coastal Inundation Maps for 2030
Annual exceedance probability; 1 in 100 & 1 in 500 chance

29. Community Engagement
Two end user teams.
Engaging sectors of Collier’s economy,
culture, and social services.
– SWOT analyses.
– Asset identification, mapping, prioritization.

30. Adaptation Planning
RFP under development by Collier
County.
Contract with SNC-Lavalin Atkins for
information gathering.

31. Sanibel Project: Overview
Persons involved: FGCU & the City.
6-month study funded through FL DEP’s Coastal
Partnership Initiative.
Completed June 30, 2019; $53,460.
Purpose: Help Sanibel understand its vulnerabilities to sea-
level rise (SRL) and storminess. Most relevant effects for
Sanibel.
Employ a community engaged, cooperative, proactive, and
hopeful, yet cautious approach.
A first step in a longer process.
Proposal in review for inundation modeling.
A segue into Lee County.

32. Representative Francis Rooney FL-19
– Member of the NOAA End-User Team; endorsed Collier project.
– Serving as Republican Co-leader of the Climate Solutions Caucus.
– Introduced the Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act in January,
2019.
– Co-sponsor of SWAP Act: Stemming Warming & Augmenting pay.
– Supportive of a SWFL Compact.
His announced retirement in 2020.
Congressional Support

33. Greater Southwest Florida’s Efforts
• SWFL Regional Resiliency Compact
• Conversations begun with Collier, Lee, and Charlotte
Counties, and their 10 municipalities.
• Statement of purpose, objectives, and draft MOU.
Lee Charlotte Collier
Everglades City, Marco Island, Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero, Ft. Myers, Ft.
Myers Beach, Sanibel, Captiva Erosion Control District, Cape Coral, Punta Gorda

34. Emergent Florida Collaboratives

35. How Do they Operate?
35
How Regional Climate Collaboratives Conduct Activities
Connectivity Network Alignment Network Production Network
Members plan and
produce outcomes
independently, but share
knowledge with each
other
Members develop shared
plans together and align
their priorities, but
produce outcomes
independently
Members develop
shared plans and
priorities, and jointly
produce outcomes
together
Study Conducted by the Institute for Sustainable Communities

36. Southeast Florida’s Science to Management Efforts:
• 4 counties (Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward, & Palm Beach Counties) + 100 cities
• Group has / is addressing vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation
• 10 years of operation; highly successful
• Produced: a Regional Climate Action Plan to reduce greenhouse emissions &
build climate resilience; an Economic Resilience Work Group
• www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org

37. Thanks . . .
Contact Information:
Michael Savarese
239-590-7165
msavares@fgcu.edu www.fgcu.edu/accr/