Presentation given at the St Johns River Summit. Lessons learned about sea level rise from the Everglades restoration experience.

1. Lessons Learned from the Everglades Sea Level Rise Assessments and Methods St. Johns River Summit Challenges: Sea Level Rise September 15, 2010 Jacksonville, Florida Presented by: Kris Esterson (Everglades Partners Joint Venture) & Glenn LandersSenior Project ManagerClimate Change StudiesEverglades Division USACE, Jacksonville District

2. SLR and Climate Change in CERP Where is the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP) in the process of assessing SLR impacts on the program? Guidance on sea level change was issued by USACE in July, 2009. The new guidance required increased analysis of SLR effects on CERP projects and program. USACE, and CERP partner agencies, are currently developing several documents on climate change impacts to CERP. Future investigations will focus on tool development and development of adaptation strategies.

3. Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL

4. Map of Compliant Stations 9 Tide Stations in Florida comply with the EC’s requirements. = Stations referenced in CERP planning = Stations relevant for St Johns River (Mayport and Fernandina Beach)

5. SLR Measured at Mayport Tide Station 2.40 mm/yr

6. Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL

7. Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Fernandina Beach, FL

8. SLR Scenarios for Selected Sites in Florida

9. SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida 6 ft ? >3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009) 5 ft SFRPC 10% Worst Case EC 1165-2-211 High 4 ft ? NRC 2nd Biennial Review (2008) “not much more than 3 feet” 3 ft ? >1.5’ for ~2059 (Miami-Dade., 2009) SFRPC 50% Moderate Case 2 ft EC 1165-2-211 Intermediate 1.7’ by 2100 (CGM 16, 2004) 1.09’ (34cm) for 2100 (Yellow Book, 1999) SFRPC 90% Least Case 1 ft 2.1” to 1’ for 2030 (Broward Co., 2009) 0.8’ by 2050 (CGM 16, 2004) EC 1165-2-211 Historic 0.5’ SFWMD Sensitivity Test (Trimble, 1998) 0.48’ (15cm) for 2050 (Yellow Book, 1999) 0 ft 2050 2100 2030 2000

10. New Corps Guidance on Incorporating Sea-Level Change Considerations EC 1165-2-211 became effective July 1, 2009 Applies to every Corps coastal activity as far inland as extent of tidal influence Does not apply to regulatory activities EC can be accessed at: http://140.194.76.129/publications/eng-circulars/ec1165-2-211/

11. Evolution of USACE/CERP Guidance on SLR

12. Florida Through Time – Climate Change Happens! 100 miles 120,000 years ago 18,000 years ago Today + 6 meters (20’)* - 120 meters (420’) *~ ½ from Greenland *~ ½ from Antarctica Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force

13. Climate Change Concerns for South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Sea Level Rise Salinity changes in coastal bays Shoreline retreat with natural habitat changes/losses Increasing flooding in coastal areas Saltwater intrusion in water supply wells Uncertainties and risks in rate and depth of sea level rise Warmer Temperatures Evaporation losses up; water supply down Stresses on plant, animal, and marine ecosystems Changes in growing season and migratory patterns Changes in water quality Hydrologic Pattern Changes Potential for less frequent and more intense rain events Potential increased tropical storm intensity or frequency

15. Credit: Peter W. Harlem, Florida International University, Southeast Environmental Research Center

16. Sea Level Rise in South Florida A little less than 1 foot during the past century measured at Key West A 2 foot rise would have significant effects

17. Sea Level Rise in South Florida A little less than 1 foot during the past century measured at Key West A 4-5 foot rise would have dramatic impacts MHHW +120 cm (4 ft) rise MHHW +150 cm (5 ft) rise

19. Will coordinate mitigation and adaptation activities

20. Establishes a framework in which the four counties can share resources and collaborate on climate change adaptation strategies

22. Flood Damage Concerns Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity drainage canals The population of South Florida is 6.5 million and growing

24. Will local canal stages be allowed to rise in step with sea level rise?

27. Effects on Natural Areas Saltwater inundation leads to peat collapse and decline of freshwater wetlands habitat Photo Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force Remnant living sawgrass Peat Collapse Dead sawgrass, substrate decay Everglades restoration will increase freshwater flows to natural areas and may delay some future habitat changes

28. shoreline.noaa.gov/apps/bounddeterm.html

29. Tidal Datums for Key West Elevations in NAVD 88 Relative to NTDE 1983-2001 MHHW= MSL + 0.92 ft MHHW MHW MHW= MSL + 0.63 ft MSL Mean Range of Tide (MN) Great Diurnal Range (GT) MLW MLLW Great Diurnal Range (GT)- The difference in height between mean high high water and mean lower low water. Mean Range of Tide (MN)- The difference in height between mean high water and mean low water.

30. Scenarios for Sea-Level Rise U.N. Climate Change Science Compendium 2009 0.8 to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) by 2100 Use GIS to develop flooded area maps in +1ft increments to +6ft of SLC. High – Modified NRC - III Intermediate – Modified NRC - I 2.00 Low – Historic 2060 2110 2010

31. Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands Northern Portion Mean High High Water

32. Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands Southern Portion Mean High High Water

33. Mean High High Water Plus 0.5 ft

34. Mean High High Water Plus 1.0 ft

35. Mean High High Water Plus 1.5 ft

36. Mean High High Water Plus 2.0 ft

37. Model Development For South Florida Climate Change Adaptation Studies Regional models must be modified or developed to evaluate potential climate change related variations in rainfall, evapotranspiration and tropical storms. Local models with one foot topographic contours must be developed or enhanced to evaluate potential sea level rise and salt water intrusion impacts in natural and developed coastal areas. Conversion to NAVD88 is needed.

38. Next Steps - CERP Coordinate Draft CGM16 with CERP Partners and COE national team preparing SLC ETL Continue Initial SLR Impacts Assessments for CERP coastal projects Summarize Initial SLR Impacts Assessments in CERP Tech Rpt 1 Continue Model Development for More Detailed Future Studies

39. Next Steps - USACE Per WRDA 2007, update USACE Principles and Guidelines for Water Resources Projects. National Research Council (NRC) review due Nov 2010. A national interagency team is preparing a new Engineering Technical Letter (ETL) on Sea Level Change due in 2011. NRC to review and possibly update their 1987 SLR guidance by Dec 2011. CEQ Climate Adaption Task Force

40. External Experts USGS NOAA Navy FHWA HR Wallingford, UK University of Southampton, UK Procedures to Evaluate Sea Level Change Impacts, Responses, and Adaptation Engineering Technical Letter Team Mike Mohr, LRB Mmm John Winkelman, NAE Jeff Gebert, NAP Larry Cocchieri, NAD and PCX Heidi Moritz, NWP Team Lead for Engineering John Furry, HQ Stu Townsley, SPD Lauren DeFrank, IWR Mike Wutkowski, SAW Matt Schrader, SAJ Glenn Landers, SAJ Mmmmmmmmmmmm Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm Mmmm Mmmm mmmm Susan Rees, SAM Dennis Mekkers, SAM Justo Pena, SWG Julie Rosati, ERDC Andy Garcia, ERDC Tom Smith, POH Crane Johnson, POA Henri Langlois, IWR Team Lead for Planning

41. Everglades Restoration Climate Change ConcernsKey Take Away Points Uncertainties and RISKS exist regarding climate change, particularly future rate and depth of sea level rise National Academy of Sciences 2008 report on restoration progress stated that climate change should be a reason to accelerate Everglades restoration, not a reason for delays Everglades Restoration will help delay climate change impacts in natural and developed areas More work needed to assess impact of sea level rise and climate change on the restoration effort CERP Project Implementation Reports to address Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for enhanced long term sustainability

42. Kissimmee River Restoration After Before

43. For additional information, contact: Glenn Landers Or Kris Esterson U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Jacksonville District Kristopher.A.Esterson@usace.army.mil Glenn.B.Landers@usace.army.mil

44. C-111 Spreader Canal Project

45. C-111 Spreader Canal Project MSL = Mean Sea Level

46. C-111 Spreader Canal Project MSL + 1 ft SLR

47. C-111 Spreader Canal Project MSL + 2 ft SLR

48. C-111 Spreader Canal Project MSL + 3 ft SLR

49. C-111 Spreader Canal ProjectSLR Effects on Restoration Benefits