Regional Climate Change, Sea Level Rise & Water Resources focused on climate change impacts in southeast Florida and the associated risks and challenges for water resource management. The document discussed rising sea levels and temperatures projected by the IPCC, observed trends in Florida's climate, and potential impacts including saltwater intrusion, flooding risks, and effects on ecosystems and water supply. It also outlined SFWMD's role in regional climate adaptation efforts through monitoring, modeling, and collaboration on issues like unified sea level projections and flood protection strategies.

1. Regional Climate Change, Sea Level Rise & Water Resources Jayantha Obeysekera, Ph. D.,P.E., D.WRE(Obey) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling APA Florida 2011 Conference September 8, 2011

2. Role of SFWMD in SE Climate Compact Membership in: Steering Committee Several Subcommittees Working group for developing unified Sea Level Rise Projections Provide technical assistance in regional-scale issues Address regional-scale implications of climate variability, change, and sea level rise on our mission (vulnerability & adaptation) Monitor evolution of “Science”

3. Geographical Scope of Climate Change “Actionable” science is more and more desirable

4. The IPCC formed in 1988 under auspices of the United Nations Governments require information on climate change for negotiations Function is to provide assessments of the science of climate change Last report: AR4 (2007) Next report: AR5 (2013-2014) Changes in Climate can be due to both natural variability and human activity Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) www.ipcc.ch

5. IPCC Projections

6. IPCC Projections (cont.)

7. Current & Evolving Climate Conditions:World Aug 2010 Pakistan Russia China

8. Current & Evolving Climate Conditions : United States

9. Credit: Victoria Morrow (Broward County) More closer to home! Credit:Joseph Park (SFWMD) Ocean Avenue, A1A Miami-Dade County Credit: Miami-Dade DERM

10. More closers to home (cont.)

12. Courtesy: Chris Lansea. National Hurricane Center Tropical Storms: Natural Variability versus Anthropogenic Effects? Assets Natural Variability?

13. The National Climate Assessment Name Jayantha Obeysekera Event APA Florida 2011 Conference http://assessment.globalchange.gov

15. Regions 15 Northeast Southeast and Caribbean Midwest Great Plains Northwest Southwest Alaska and Arctic Hawaii and Pacific Islands + Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands + Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands

18. Temperature

19. Rainfall, floods, and droughts

20. Tropical Storms & HurricanesHuman Induced Land use changes Greenhouse gases *Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation of temperature in the Atlantic Ocean

21. Water Management – Potential Sea Level Rise Impacts Direct impacts on the coastal belt (storm surge) Flood Protection (urban flooding, hurricanes) Water Supply (saltwater intrusion) Natural Systems (ecosystems along the coast) Ocean Avenue, A1A

23. Which decisions are likely to be affected and could benefit from adaptation strategies (Type I) in the short term?

24. “No Regret Strategies”

26. Rising Seas – Historical Data

27. Sea Level RiseEnvrironmental Impacts Relocation and possible reduction of mangrove forests Forced migration of wading birds north Potential peat collapse, coastal erosion, and redistribution of sediments Salinity intrusion into freshwater marshes can: discharge toxic hydrogen sulfide, cause coastal fish kills, and increase habitat loss

28. Impacts of Rising Seas: Flood Control Coastal Structure Ocean Side (tailwater) Land Side(headwater)

29. Impacts of Rising Seas: Flood Control Coastal Structure Ocean Side (tailwater) Land Side(headwater)

30. Area Surrounding S-27 Structure C-7 Canal S-27

31. Vulnerable Structures Preliminary review based on original designs 28 gravity structures on the East Coast Six gravity structures on the west coast Most vulnerable structures are in Miami-Dade and Broward counties Prioritized 3 structures S-29 S-28 S-27

32. Rising Seas - Water Supply:Saltwater Intrusion

33. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) Over 20 different models

36. May Precipitation – post-1950 7 0 # of Wet Days Dry Season - POR 1 7 Historical decrease in wet season precipitation, which is most evident for the month of May. Historical increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during NDJ. Historical Trends

38.  number of wet days during the dry season – POR

39.  May precipitation throughout the state – POR and especially post-1950. May be linked to changes in start of the wet season.

40. Urban heat island effect – urban (and drained) areas

41.  Tave and  number of dog days for wet (warm) season especially post-1950

42. Decrease in DTR ( Tmin >  Tmax)

43.  Annual maximum of Tave and Tmin for all seasons in POR and especially post-1950Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling

44. Downscaling “Downscaling Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) Regional Climate Models (RCM)

45. By 2050 (findings to date - may change as science evolves)

46. Hotter and Longer Summer? 2100 2011

47. Sources of Sea Level Rise Terrestrial Water Input Land-based Ice (Glaciers, Ice Sheets in Greenland, Antarctica) Thermal Expansion Vertical Land Movement

48. Future Projections of Sea Level Rise: Polar Ice Uncertainty Antarctica (~5.4 million sq. km.) Greenland (~ 2 million sq.km.)

49. What is the future rate of acceleration? Rapid acceleration due to ice sheet loss Sea Level Rise relative to 2010 (mm) Medium acceleration Continuing current trend

51. Contingency Plans

52. Resilience

53. Adaptive Capacity

54. “no regret strategies”

55. Adaptive Management60.0 5 f eet 60 ange R igh UNEP (2009) 50 H 4 f eet on (~2060) ise (in.) z i 40 d R r r a el w 3 f eet o v r R N C lanning Ho e B 30.0 L GM 30 31.5 ea C ange P S 2 f eet R w GM 19.2 C 20 o C C L IP FSU 20 GM N R C 1 f oot C 10.8 10 GM 8.4 FSU C 7.0 4.8 5 2.4 0 2030 2050 2080 2100 Y ear

57. Tropical Storms & Climate Change Tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms (2-11% intensity increase by 2100) Decrease in global frequency of tropical cyclones (6-34%) Increase in the frequency of the most intense cyclones Increase in rainfall rate, 20% within 100 km of storm center Knutson et. al, nature geoscience, 2010

58. Adaptation to Rising SeasExample: Forward Pumping at S-26 Structure Spillway New Pump Station

60. Update saltwater intrusion monitoring network

61. Identify utilities at risk

62. Implement water conservation

63. Alternatives sources of water Supply

64. Incorporate sea level rise in planning efforts

66. Inundation Mapping Areas <= MHHW + SLR Scenario Not an Official Map Do NOT Use or Distribute Calculated using 50-ft DEMs (shown here above a 10-ft DEM backdrop) 44

67. Flood Event Model Development Collaboration with Hydrologic Engineering Center ($75K for 3 years ) Accelerate planned development linking: MODFLOW (groundwater) RAS (canal network model) Linkage facilitated through OpenMI (Open Modeling Interface) Initial testing in C-4 Basin

68. Groundwater salinity difference with two-foot sea-level rise Courtesy: Eric Swain, USGS

69. Risk Management

70. Questions! Recent cabinet meeting of the island nation, Maldives

71. Reverse flow during high-tide: A simple adaptation strategy

72. SE Florida SLR Projection WHY? PAST: 8-10 inch/century FUTURE: 1 foot rise by 2040-207

74. Technical lead, Climate Change for SFWMD

75. Member, two committees of the U.S. National Academy of Science

76. Member, U.S. National Climate Assessment Development & Advisory Committee (appointed this month)SFWMD & I