9/8 THUR 16:00 | 4-County Climate Change Planning 1

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Jayantha Obeysekera

This session will discuss the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact agreed to by Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties in SE Florida, and their partnering with the
South Florida Water Management District. The 5.6 million residents of the four counties exceed the population of 30 states and represent 30 percent of Florida’s population, and are situated in
one of the nation’s areas most vulnerable to climate change. The session will detail the Regional Climate Change Compact’s objectives,
its accomplishments to date and the ongoing development of a regional climate action plan.

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  • Eventually this slide will be replaced with a prettier picture of the regions, similar to that used in 2009 report
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  • 9/8 THUR 16:00 | 4-County Climate Change Planning 1

    1. 1. Regional Climate Change, Sea Level Rise & Water Resources<br />Jayantha Obeysekera, Ph. D.,P.E., D.WRE(Obey)<br />Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling<br />APA Florida 2011 Conference <br />September 8, 2011<br />
    2. 2. Role of SFWMD in SE Climate Compact<br />Membership in:<br />Steering Committee <br />Several Subcommittees<br />Working group for developing unified Sea Level Rise Projections<br />Provide technical assistance in regional-scale issues<br />Address regional-scale implications of climate variability, change, and sea level rise on our mission (vulnerability & adaptation)<br />Monitor evolution of “Science”<br />
    3. 3. Geographical Scope of Climate Change<br />“Actionable” science is more and more desirable<br />
    4. 4. The IPCC formed in 1988 under auspices of the United Nations<br />Governments require information on climate change for negotiations<br />Function is to provide assessments of the science of climate change<br />Last report: AR4 (2007)<br />Next report: AR5 (2013-2014)<br />Changes in Climate can be due to both natural variability and human activity<br />Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)<br />www.ipcc.ch<br />
    5. 5. IPCC Projections<br />
    6. 6. IPCC Projections (cont.)<br />
    7. 7. Current & Evolving Climate Conditions:World<br />Aug 2010 Pakistan Russia China<br />
    8. 8. Current & Evolving Climate Conditions : United States <br />
    9. 9. Credit:  Victoria Morrow (Broward County)<br />More closer to home!<br />Credit:Joseph Park (SFWMD)<br />Ocean Avenue, A1A<br />Miami-Dade County<br />Credit: Miami-Dade DERM<br />
    10. 10. More closers to home (cont.)<br />
    11. 11.
    12. 12. Courtesy: Chris Lansea.<br />National Hurricane Center<br />Tropical Storms: Natural Variability versus Anthropogenic Effects?<br />Assets<br />Natural Variability?<br />
    13. 13. The National Climate Assessment<br />Name<br />Jayantha Obeysekera<br />Event<br />APA Florida 2011 Conference<br />http://assessment.globalchange.gov<br />
    14. 14. NCADAC Members (Non-Federal)<br />14<br /><ul><li>Edward Maibach</li></ul> George Mason University<br /><ul><li>RezaulMahmood</li></ul> Western Kentucky University<br /><ul><li>Michael McGeehin</li></ul> RTI International<br /><ul><li>Philip Mote</li></ul> Oregon State University<br /><ul><li>JayanthaObeysekera</li></ul> South Florida Water Management District<br /><ul><li>Marie O’Neill</li></ul> University of Michigan<br /><ul><li>John Posey</li></ul> East-West Gateway Council of Governments<br /><ul><li>Sara Pryor</li></ul> Indiana University<br /><ul><li>Richard Schmalensee</li></ul> Massachusetts Institute of Technology<br /><ul><li>Henry G. Schwartz</li></ul> HGS Consultants, LLC<br /><ul><li>Joel Smith</li></ul> Stratus Consulting<br /><ul><li>Daniel Abbasi</li></ul> Mission Point Capital Partners<br /><ul><li>E. Virginia Armbrust</li></ul> University of Washington<br /><ul><li>T. M. Bull Bennett</li></ul>Kiksapa Consulting, LLC<br /><ul><li>Rosina Bierbaum</li></ul> PCAST, University of Michigan<br /><ul><li>Maria Blair</li></ul> American Cancer Society<br /><ul><li>Lynne Carter</li></ul> Louisiana State University<br /><ul><li>F. Stuart Chapin III</li></ul> University of Alaska<br /><ul><li>Camille Coley</li></ul> Florida Atlantic University<br /><ul><li>Jan Dell</li></ul> CH2MHill<br /><ul><li>Plácido dos Santos</li></ul> Arizona Department of Water Resources<br /><ul><li>Paul Fleming</li></ul> Seattle Public Utilities<br /><ul><li>Guido Franco</li></ul> California Energy Commission<br /><ul><li>Mary Gade</li></ul>Gade Consulting<br /><ul><li>ArisGeorgakakos</li></ul> Georgia Institute of Technology<br /><ul><li>David Hales</li></ul> College of the Atlantic<br /><ul><li>Mark Howden</li></ul> Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization<br /><ul><li>Anthony Janetos</li></ul> Joint Global Change Research Institute<br /><ul><li>Peter Kareiva</li></ul> The Nature Conservancy<br /><ul><li>Rattan Lal</li></ul> Ohio State University<br /><ul><li>Arthur Lee</li></ul> Chevron Corporation<br /><ul><li>Diana Liverman</li></ul> University of Arizona and Oxford University<br />
    15. 15. Regions<br />15<br />Northeast<br />Southeast and Caribbean<br />Midwest<br />Great Plains<br />Northwest<br />Southwest<br />Alaska and Arctic<br />Hawaii and Pacific Islands<br />+ Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands<br />+ Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands<br />
    16. 16. Potential Impacts on Water Resources Management in South Florida<br />Climate Change Drivers<br />Water Management<br /> Impacts<br />Natural Cycles<br />Interannual<br />(e.g. El Nino and La Nina) to<br />Multi-decadal<br />(e.g. AMO*)<br />Solar, Volcanos<br />Quartet of change:<br />Stressors<br /><ul><li>Direct landscape impacts (e.g. storm surge)
    17. 17. Water Supply</li></ul>(e.g. droughts, saltwater intrusion)<br /><ul><li>Flood Control</li></ul>(e.g. urban flooding, hurricanes)<br /><ul><li>Natural Systems</li></ul>(e.g. ecosystem impacts, both coastal and interior)<br /><ul><li>Rising Seas
    18. 18. Temperature
    19. 19. Rainfall, floods, and droughts
    20. 20. Tropical Storms & Hurricanes</li></ul>Human Induced<br />Land use changes<br />Greenhouse gases <br />*Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation of temperature in the Atlantic Ocean<br />
    21. 21. Water Management – Potential Sea Level Rise Impacts<br />Direct impacts on the coastal belt (storm surge)<br />Flood Protection (urban flooding, hurricanes)<br />Water Supply (saltwater intrusion)<br />Natural Systems (ecosystems along the coast)<br /> Ocean Avenue, A1A<br />
    22. 22. SFWMD White Paper, Technical Paper & Strategy<br /><ul><li>Two Important Questions:
    23. 23. Which decisions are likely to be affected and could benefit from adaptation strategies (Type I) in the short term?
    24. 24. “No Regret Strategies”
    25. 25. Which decisions are likely to be affected but for which adaptation strategies (Type II) could be deferred without serious consequences?</li></li></ul><li>Sea Level Rise<br />
    26. 26. Rising Seas – Historical Data<br />
    27. 27. Sea Level RiseEnvrironmental Impacts<br />Relocation and possible reduction of mangrove forests<br />Forced migration of wading birds north <br />Potential peat collapse, coastal erosion, and redistribution of sediments<br />Salinity intrusion into freshwater marshes can: discharge toxic hydrogen sulfide, cause coastal fish kills, and increase habitat loss<br />
    28. 28. Impacts of Rising Seas: Flood Control <br />Coastal Structure<br />Ocean Side<br />(tailwater)<br />Land Side(headwater)<br />
    29. 29. Impacts of Rising Seas: Flood Control <br />Coastal Structure<br />Ocean Side<br />(tailwater)<br />Land Side(headwater)<br />
    30. 30. Area Surrounding S-27 Structure<br />C-7 Canal<br />S-27<br />
    31. 31. Vulnerable Structures<br />Preliminary review based on original designs<br />28 gravity structures on the East Coast<br />Six gravity structures on the west coast<br />Most vulnerable structures are in Miami-Dade and Broward counties<br />Prioritized 3 structures<br />S-29<br />S-28<br />S-27<br />
    32. 32. Rising Seas - Water Supply:Saltwater Intrusion<br />
    33. 33. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs)<br />Over 20 different models<br />
    34. 34. Concerns about global models <br />Uncertainties in GCM predictions due to:<br /><ul><li>Poor resolution – South Florida not even modeled in some GCMs; greater errors at smaller scales
    35. 35. From IPCC AR4-WG1, Ch. 8 - Simulation of tropical precipitation, ENSO, clouds and their response to climate change, etc.</li></li></ul><li>Global Climate Models<br />(GCMs)<br />Observed Climate Data<br />Simulation of Late 20th Century<br />21st Century Climate Projections<br />Downscale global information to regional information<br />Is there evidence that climate is changing in Florida?<br />How well are south Florida’s climate and teleconnections represented by climate models?<br />How do climate projections affect water resources management?<br />A systematic approach for using climate model data<br />
    36. 36. May Precipitation – post-1950<br />7<br />0<br /># of Wet Days Dry Season - POR<br />1<br />7<br />Historical decrease in wet season precipitation, which is most evident for the month of May. <br />Historical increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during NDJ.<br />Historical Trends<br />
    37. 37. Florida - Main Observations<br /><ul><li>Precipitation and temperature statistics at 32 stations in Florida analyzed for trends using non-parametric techniques
    38. 38.  number of wet days during the dry season – POR
    39. 39.  May precipitation throughout the state – POR and especially post-1950. May be linked to changes in start of the wet season.
    40. 40. Urban heat island effect – urban (and drained) areas
    41. 41.  Tave and  number of dog days for wet (warm) season especially post-1950
    42. 42. Decrease in DTR ( Tmin >  Tmax)
    43. 43.  Annual maximum of Tave and Tmin for all seasons in POR and especially post-1950</li></ul>Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling<br />
    44. 44. Downscaling<br />“Downscaling<br />Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM)<br />Regional Climate Models (RCM)<br />
    45. 45. By 2050 (findings to date - may change as science evolves)<br />
    46. 46. Hotter and Longer Summer?<br />2100<br />2011<br />
    47. 47. Sources of Sea Level Rise<br />Terrestrial Water Input<br />Land-based Ice<br />(Glaciers, Ice Sheets in Greenland, Antarctica)<br />Thermal Expansion<br />Vertical Land Movement<br />
    48. 48. Future Projections of Sea Level Rise: Polar Ice Uncertainty<br />Antarctica<br />(~5.4 million sq. km.)<br />Greenland<br />(~ 2 million sq.km.)<br />
    49. 49. What is the future rate of acceleration?<br />Rapid acceleration due to ice sheet loss<br />Sea Level Rise relative to 2010 (mm)<br />Medium acceleration<br />Continuing current trend<br />
    50. 50. 79.0<br />70<br /><ul><li>Alternative Futures
    51. 51. Contingency Plans
    52. 52. Resilience
    53. 53. Adaptive Capacity
    54. 54. “no regret strategies”
    55. 55. Adaptive Management</li></ul>60.0<br />5<br />f<br />eet<br />60<br />ange<br />R<br />igh<br />UNEP (2009)<br />50<br />H<br />4<br />f<br />eet<br />on (~2060)<br />ise (in.)<br />z<br />i<br />40<br />d<br />R<br />r<br />r<br />a<br />el<br />w<br />3<br />f<br />eet<br />o<br />v<br />r<br />R<br />N<br />C<br />lanning Ho<br />e<br />B<br />30.0<br />L<br />GM<br />30<br />31.5<br />ea<br />C<br />ange<br />P<br />S<br />2<br />f<br />eet<br />R<br />w<br />GM<br />19.2<br />C<br />20<br />o<br />C<br />C<br />L<br />IP<br />FSU<br />20<br />GM<br />N<br />R<br />C<br />1<br />f<br />oot<br />C<br />10.8<br />10<br />GM<br />8.4<br />FSU<br />C<br />7.0<br />4.8<br />5<br />2.4<br />0<br />2030<br />2050<br />2080<br />2100<br />Y<br />ear<br />
    56. 56.
    57. 57. Tropical Storms & Climate Change<br />Tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms (2-11% intensity increase by 2100)<br />Decrease in global frequency of tropical cyclones (6-34%)<br />Increase in the frequency of the most intense cyclones<br />Increase in rainfall rate, 20% within 100 km of storm center<br />Knutson et. al, nature geoscience, 2010<br />
    58. 58. Adaptation to Rising SeasExample: Forward Pumping at S-26 Structure<br />Spillway<br />New Pump Station<br />
    59. 59. Saltwater Intrusion: Adaptation <br /><ul><li>Determine saltwater/ freshwater interface
    60. 60. Update saltwater intrusion monitoring network
    61. 61. Identify utilities at risk
    62. 62. Implement water conservation
    63. 63. Alternatives sources of water Supply
    64. 64. Incorporate sea level rise in planning efforts
    65. 65. Regional coordination</li></li></ul><li>Water Supply and Water Conservation<br />Continue looking at opportunities and technologies to reduce amount of additional freshwater needed for water supply <br />Look at opportunities to<br />use reuse as a hydraulic <br />barrier<br />Implement water <br /> conservation measures<br />Develop alternative<br /> water supply options<br />
    66. 66. Inundation Mapping<br />Areas <= MHHW + SLR Scenario<br />Not an Official Map<br />Do NOT Use or Distribute<br />Calculated using 50-ft DEMs<br />(shown here above a <br />10-ft DEM backdrop)<br />44<br />
    67. 67. Flood Event Model Development<br />Collaboration with Hydrologic Engineering Center ($75K for 3 years )<br />Accelerate planned development linking:<br />MODFLOW (groundwater)<br />RAS (canal network model)<br />Linkage facilitated through OpenMI (Open Modeling Interface)<br />Initial testing in C-4 Basin<br />
    68. 68. Groundwater salinity difference with two-foot sea-level rise<br />Courtesy: Eric Swain, USGS<br />
    69. 69. Risk Management<br />
    70. 70. Questions! <br />Recent cabinet meeting of the island nation, Maldives<br />
    71. 71. Reverse flow during high-tide: A simple adaptation strategy<br />
    72. 72. SE Florida SLR Projection<br />WHY?<br />PAST: 8-10 inch/century<br />FUTURE: 1 foot rise by 2040-207<br />
    73. 73. <ul><li>Chief Modeler, Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling, South Florida Water Management District
    74. 74. Technical lead, Climate Change for SFWMD
    75. 75. Member, two committees of the U.S. National Academy of Science
    76. 76. Member, U.S. National Climate Assessment Development & Advisory Committee (appointed this month)</li></ul>SFWMD & I<br />

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