The document discusses climate change impacts on UK agriculture. It notes that agriculture accounts for 7% of UK greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from methane and nitrous oxide. The Rural Climate Change Forum advises the government on reducing agricultural emissions through practices like improved fertilizer use and manure management. Climate change will impact UK agriculture through increased risks from pests, diseases and heat stress on livestock. Farmers need to both mitigate emissions and adapt to changes in climate and weather patterns.

2. Chair of the Conference Mr Poul Christensen Deputy Chairman, Natural England

3. Welcome Address Vice Chancellor Professor Gordon Marshall University of Reading

5. Keynote Address Mr John Gilliland Chairman Rural Climate Change Forum

6. GHGs from agriculture in UK UK agriculture = 7% of UK GHG emissions 37% of UK methane emissions 67% of UK nitrous oxide emissions 1% of UK carbon dioxide emissions

7. Methane emissions: 1990 - 2005

8. Nitrous oxide emissions: 1990 - 2005

9. CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture 2005 – Carbon equivalent 43.8% 8.1% 10.5% 19% 12.3% 6.3%

10. Rural Climate Change Forum Established in 2005 High level Forum for dialogue with Government Advice on policy, communications and research Leadership for rural stakeholders Steering delivery of commitments in UK CCP

11. Structure Co-chairs : John Gilliland Defra Environment Minister Members : Natural England CLA Forestry Commission NFU National Trust RSPB Environment Agency Carbon Trust Up until October 2008

12. What’s on the RCCF’s agenda? Market mechanisms for reducing GHGs from agriculture, forestry and land management What constitutes “ good practice ” by farmers to reduce GHGs? How best to communicate good practice What are the impacts of climate change? What are the opportunities for agriculture?

13. UK Climate Change Programme included a commitment to…… Examine the scope and feasibility of a market-based mechanism to facilitate the trading of greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions from agriculture, forestry and other land management sectors Is emissions trading for the sector possible?

14. Scoping study to look at…. Possible models: Project-based – credits are awarded for projects that reduce emissions, these can then be sold or bought Cap & trade – emissions cap is set for the sector, participants would have a certain number of allowances for emissions within the cap, which they could buy or sell Potential abatement options Costs and benefits of options

15. What did the study say… Characteristics of sector make emissions trading difficult and expensive: Lots of (small) units Diffuse sources of emissions Emissions vary depending on boundaries Additionalilty / permanence But a project-based scheme could be possible Still early days!

16. Commissioned study to review existing research to identify (i) good practice by farmers and land managers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (ii) gaps in our knowledge David Miliband…… Request for RCCF’s advice on putting behaviour change and new technologies into practice NFU speech, Feb 2007 RCCF:

17. Headline messages from this project: Do not exceed crop N requirements Make full allowance of manure N supply Spread fertiliser and manure at appropriate times/conditions Increase livestock N use efficiency Make use of improved genetic resources (plant and livestock) Anaerobic digestion of farm manures Change land use – to establish permanent grassland / woodlands or grow biofuels / biomass crops

18. Some knowledge gaps… Nitrous oxide – need for policies on mineral N fertiliser application rate and timing; need for research on potential of nitrification inhibitors Methane – need to understand potential of dietary manipulation (e.g. forages and supplement); need for full lifecycle analysis of GHG benefits of AD Carbon – need to quantify carbon storage / GHG benefits of peatland restoration and management, arable reversion and reduced tillage

19. Climate change impacts Mitigation is important but….. We are already “locked in” to climate change for the next 30-40 years Farmers among the first to feel these impacts Need to adapt to changing pressures – e.g.: water shortages increased risk of pests and diseases the risk of heat stress in livestock . Failure to act now could result in huge financial losses in the long term

20. Climate change also presents opportunities for the sector: Longer growing seasons Grow new crops e.g. a broader range of oilseeds, vines, and energy crops to replace fossil fuels Provide more sustainable materials e.g. for construction Use anaerobic digestion to produce biogas Produce crops and biomass for energy

21. Climate Change Bill - targets The first bill of its kind in the world Target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050 and 26-32% by 2020, against a 1990 baseline. Five-year carbon budgets will set binding limits on carbon dioxide emissions during five year budget periods, beginning with the period 2008-12.

22. Climate Change Bill – Committee on Climate Change Committee will advise the Government on the pathway to the 2050 target, specifically on: the level of carbon budgets reduction effort needed by different sectors optimum balance between domestic action and international trading in carbon allowances. whether the target should be broadened to include UK emissions of other greenhouse gases

23. Climate Change Bill – enabling powers The Bill contains enabling powers to introduce new emissions trading schemes through secondary legislation. New schemes could cover new sectors and non-CO 2 gases

24. Climate Change Bill – adaptation Government will undertake a risk assessment of climate change impacts and draw up a programme to respond to the risks. This will respect economic, social and environmental concerns. Defra is working closely with the Environment Agency and others to consider whether further adaptation measures are needed in the Climate Change Bill.

25. Conclusion:- This sector has a significant role to play in managing the impacts of climate change! Mitigating of wider GHGs Flood risk management Protecting biodiversity Providing ecosystem services Water supply and quality Reducing erosion

27. Climate Scenarios Professor Julia Slingo Walker Institute for Climate Systems Research

28. ‘ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal ’ – IPCC 4 th Assessment Report Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850 Global warming is real IPCC AR4

29. Other evidence for Climate Change is stacking up INCREASE Length of freeze free season Length of growing season More frequent heat waves Wetter winters/Drier summers DECREASE Extent of mountain glaciers Sea-ice amounts and thickness Fewer Frosts

30. Committed to further warming just from what we have already emitted. For the next 20-30 years the rate of global warming is largely insensitive to the different emission scenarios Projected changes in global mean temperature for range of emission scenarios

31. Surface Temperature changes for 3 emission scenarios for various lead times Pattern of warming is not uniform –indication of much reduced warming over N. Atlantic possibly related to changes in Thermohaline Circulation

32. IPCC 4 th Assessment Report: Projections of likely shifts in rainfall patterns % change in rainfall by end of 21 st century, where more than 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of the change. White areas denote regions where no consistent signal is predicted e.g. Africa. Global warming perturbs the water cycle very profoundly

33. Regional model projections of climate change by end of 21 st century A1B Scenario: 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

34. Natural climate variability plays a significant role for the UK North Atlantic Oscillation Negative Phase Positive Phase

35. Recent trends in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Unprecedented warmth of N. Atlantic due to juxtaposition of global warming and natural variability Courtesy: Rowan Sutton N. Atlantic sea surface temperatures Global sea surface temperatures N. Atlantic minus Global sea surface temperatures

36. Changes in Extremes Schematic of probabilities of daily temperatures Assumes that statistics of weather stay the same, which is probably not the case due to feedbacks in the climate system IPCC AR4

37. Soil moisture feedbacks and summertime extremes Change in summertime temperatures by 2071-2100 for A1B scenario Mean Temperature Increase in variability associated with increased summertime drying e.g. August 2003 % change in year-to-year variations

38. Air Quality and Plant Health Surface ozone is damaging to plants and humans by affecting ‘lung function’. Future projections of air quality are uncertain New research at Reading suggests that ‘ozone-friendly’ weather (e.g. anticyclonic conditions) may be more prevalent in the future Surface ozone levels at the height of the August 2003 heatwave. Thresholds considered dangerous to plants and humans were exceeded in many places.

39. ‘ Food Crops in a Changing Climate’: Royal Society Discussion Meeting 2005 Damage to rice due to high temperature event at flowering Current estimates of impacts of climate change on food production are likely to be over-optimistic by as much as 50% due to: Damaging effects of surface ozone on crop physiology. Various studies have indicated that increased levels of near-surface ozone could reduce yields of some crops by up to 30% by 2050. Exceedance of critical temperature thresholds at flowering leading to loss of yield. Interactions between land use change and the water cycle affecting local weather patterns and run-off.

40. Concluding Remarks Global warming is ‘unequivocal’ and is ‘very likely’ due to human activities. High level confidence in global temperature change over the next few decades. But many aspects of climate change, especially those of relevance to farmers, remain uncertain: Regional and local changes in rainfall and its characteristics in space and time Changes in the frequency and intensity of high impact weather events e.g. heat waves, dry spells Potential effects of surface ozone on plant health

42. Impact of Climate Change on Land Use Professor Richard Ellis University of Reading

43. Impact of climate change on land use: Plan Climate change – carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature (T) impacts on crop yield Gardens (public-private-garden supply) Land use and land use change Matrices or mosaics : important in the landscape and also in biodiversity conservation ( albeit at very different scales ) Impact on cropping & animal production & land use : individual farmer / forester / land owner / manager decisions . How to predict?

44. Climate change impacts and adaptation – land use Predictions on land use that society requires or are likely to occur can only be made by combining (quantitative) understanding across many, diverse disciplines (e.g. sciences from meteorology through agriculture to economics and psychology) and groups (e.g. academics and practitioners).

45. Research @ Reading late 1980s - 1990s Experimental system - grow crops along a temperature gradient in tunnels at different CO2 concentrations to study effects of T and CO2 simultaneously

46. Winter Wheat Note irrigation pipes: no moisture stress

47. Grown at set CO2 concentrations (current or elevated) along a temperature gradient (below to above ambient)

48. Wheat development (temperature gradient) Cool Warm (+3 C) More rapid development, Shorter crop duration, Less radiation capture, and so lower yields Less rapid development, Longer crop duration, More radiation capture, and so higher yields

49. Effect of T and CO2 on wheat grain yield Increase in CO2: +ve impact Increase in T: -ve impact So “ balance ” of 2 variables’ effects Modelling suggested : effect of doubling CO2 (1980s values!) negated by a 4 C rise in T We found … negated by a 1-2 C rise in T What had earlier modelling missed?

50. Effect of maximum temperature (only brief periods) on grain set in winter wheat (P. 69 of The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (HM Treasury, 2006) shows more of Reading’s research on this topic)

51. Summer rainfall will decrease More frequent and prolonged droughts Main casualties - UK lawn, large trees - especially beech - and many herbaceous perennials Hotter, drier conditions - favour pests such as spider mite, aphids and allow exotic pests to spread Iconic image of UK as a green and pleasant land under serious threat

52. Autumn and spring rainfall decrease Conditions for gardening and garden visiting will improve Earlier displays of bulbs and other spring flowers; brighter autumn colour Conservation of water more important Return of autumn as the main planting season? Ending of summer drought a new stimulus for gardening

53. Winter rainfall will increase ...BUT evaporation will also increase Lower soil moisture reserves in much of the country Potential for a more Mediterranean garden flora … .but the winter light climate will not be Mediterranean Wetter and warmer winters will favour the spread of root fungi, and may increase damage from water logging

54. Winter rainfall will be increasingly concentrated into heavy downpours Flood risks will increase The need for water conservation measures will become more important

55. Wind speeds are not expected to increase significantly as a result of climate change But small increase in wind speed may result in large increases in wind-throw especially as trees become larger

56. Recent Land Use Change Land use – modification of the natural environment by humans . Most important modification by humans world wide is deforestation and (e.g. our region initially, agro-pastoral systems ). How rapidly has land use changed? (OSR rapid, late 1970s; but not land use change) Land use change is not novel, but pace of change in the countryside difficult to gauge year to year compared to urban development. DEFRA data from www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/land/kf

57. Agricultural land use: 1986-2005 UK Introdn of setaside

58. Forest and woodland cover: 1980-2005 UK *** ***** Broadleaved

59. Area of woodland: 1924-2005 UK WW1 WW2

60. * * *

61. Urbanisation in England

62. Planning (to protect important landscapes) National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland National Scenic Areas in Scotland

63. Greater recent use of “brownfield sites” (n.b. homes not areas)

64. Landscape Mosaic North Hants. c. 10 miles South of this campus

65. Severn Valley, Gloucestershire – water management? *

66. Essex & East Coast – aridity & inundation?

67. 1. Socio-economic change scenarios I nternational P anel on C limate C hange, S pecial R eport on E missions S cenarios futures (IPCC, SRES) UK C limate I mpacts P rogramme refinements for UK B asic L inked S ystem World Food Trade model (BLS) 2. Climate change scenario Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 climate forcing projections 3. Consequences for land use University of Reading’s C limate L and U se A llocation M odel (CLUAM) Translates market, policy, technology and climate signals into land use changes Modelling Future Changes in Land Use Overview ( Combination of 3 modules )

68. IPCC S pecial R eport on E missions S cenarios futures Scenarios selected were: A2 – low globalisation/market based solutions & B2 – low globalisation/sustainability led Low globalisation High globalisation Market-based solutions Sustainability-led solutions What sort of “future world”? Local Stewardship Conventional Development Autonomy Community Interdependence Consumerism National Enterprise World Markets Global Sustainability

69. Basic Linked System World Food Trade model (BLS) Constructed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Framework for analysing world food trade system BLS is an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model system All economic activities represented 34 national and/or regional geographical components 18 single-country national models 2 region models 14 country groupings Market clearance (production and uses must balance) Recursively dynamic model, i.e., works in annual steps For given prices calculate global net exports and imports Check market clearance for each commodity Revise prices. When markets are balanced, accept prices as world market solution for year and proceed to next year Process repeated until world markets are simultaneously cleared in all commodities BLS model based on 1996 prices: 1996 was therefore the baseline year

70. Climate Change & Cropping (England and Wales) Two stage process: Meta analysis of existing data on UK-specific crop yield changes due to climate change Decisions on where crops would not grow due to climate limits 1990s

71. An LP model of England & Wales Agriculture Land base partitioned by CEH (formerly ITE ) Land Classification System (LCS) Range of major land-using agricultural enterprises included Outputs (revenue) Inputs (costs) Model objective: maximize gross margin Subject to various constraints The Economic Model ( CLUAM , University of Reading)

72. Example outputs: National Land Use Changes Yield increases & static demand would reduce area of arable production Addition of climate change modestly reduces yield increases, allows alternative crops, so reducing scale of arable losses Increase in extensive (low stocking rate) grass-based beef and sheep Large areas of former arable land become “idle” (new use? fuel/fibre?) Without climate change With climate change A2 Low Globalisation - Market Solutions B2 Low Globalisation - Sustainability Solutions

73. The Kennet Catchment 59,773 ha of agricultural land in South Central England productive mixed farming, dominated by livestock production dominance of regularly re-seeded higher yielding grassland about one third of the area under arable little lower yielding permanent pasture or rough grazing

74. Land Use Change in the Kennet Catchment Without climate change With climate change A2 Low Globalisation - Market Solutions B2 Low Globalisation - Sustainability Solutions

75. Change in livestock numbers LSU = Livestock Units A2 Low Globalisation - Market Solutions B2 Low Globalisation - Sustainability Solutions

76. Conclusions Climate change as a driver is less important than socio-economic factors Environmental benefits (lower chemical burden) could arise from a reduced arable area and low intensity grass production But, extent of environmental benefits depends on what released land is used for If climate change provided agricultural diversification opportunities , then perhaps more arable production (e.g. fuel or fibre crops not represented in CLUAM) and a higher chemical burden

77. Future – Land Use and Climate Change Decisions on land use change will be made by farmers, foresters and other land owners / managers Within a rapidly-changing economic-social environment dictated by society (driven by an increasing global population’s demand for goods and services, including biodiversity, access, and aesthetics) through government policy and trade Environmental change (of which climate change is but one component ) will in due course have to be accounted for in the above if development is to be sustainable Debatable how much (more) environmental change will have to occur before society changes Business investment (in large part) will have to anticipate not only climate change but also anticipate (and perhaps lead ) society’s expectations and legislation

78. Sustainability  Green Brown Blue Red ) Sum of Green - Vegetation, Biodiversity, Food-Fuel-Fibre Crop Production Brown – Soil (quantity quality) Blue - Water (quantity quality) Red – Economics (financial viability: short- medium- long-term) Investment essential – payback periods in which scenarios? Where are “tipping points” for investment decisions? “ Are we (nearly) there yet”?

79. University of Reading School of Agriculture, Policy and Development Department of Agriculture Professor Richard Ellis Dr Tim Wheeler Centre for Agricultural Strategy Philip Jones Richard Tranter School of Biological Sciences Centre for Horticulture and Landscape Richard Bisgrove Professor Paul Hadley Climate change: are you ready? 25 September 2007

81. Q&A

82. Coffee Break

84. Agricultural Impacts and Opportunities Dr Jonathon Scurlock National Farmers Union

85. Dr. Jonathan Scurlock Agricultural impacts and opportunities Climate Change – are you ready? University of Reading, 25-Sep-2007

86. Why CC is important for agriculture climate change is driving policy on reducing GHG emissions at international, national and regional level EU and UK targets for renewable energy – for electricity, transport fuels and heating (not yet) agriculture will be impacted by climate change, and must also anticipate/respond to regulation NFU believes this is more an opportunity than a threat compatible with “Why Farming Matters” campaign agriculture is part of the solution to a public problem

87. CC impacts on agriculture Predicted physical impacts of climate change in the UK 2010-2100: warmer temperatures overall milder, wetter winters hotter, drier summers (but not always!) more extreme weather incidents Effects of these changes on the land-based rural business sector (agriculture, horticulture, forestry) likely to be extremely complex and variable (NFU, 2005)

88. Climate Change Task Force joint NFU / CLA / AIC activity on climate change demonstrate responsibility within agricultural sector, anticipate future needs, promote change producing science-based report setting out what farmers and growers can do (and are already doing) to combat climate change high uncertainties surround estimates of GHG emissions from agriculture – improvements need to be measurable, without pollution swapping or export emerging recommendations include nutrient management, feed changes to livestock productivity, sustainable energy – continue existing trends

89. Are we ready? – what can farmers do? invest in water storage (winter reservoirs) animal shelter and improved energy efficiency minimum/conservation tillage? – not yet proven to have reduced GHG emissions overall sustainable energy on-site – manage and substitute for energy inputs R.E. has good fit to farming business model – long term, capital investment, control input costs, future credit from GHG reductions supply biofuel commodities – OSR, wheat, wood fuel become an energy exporter (wind, AD, etc.)

90. Energy use in UK agriculture Headline figures (HRI/FEC, 2007): mostly electricity and petroleum (>1/3 each of delivered energy – HRI/FEC suggests even higher oil use) modest CO 2 emissions (0.72% of total) compared to other sectors and food chain as a whole heating (40%), field ops (30%), ventilation (15%) are largest energy uses ag buildings insulation (esp hort) and biomass have greatest potential for reducing energy/CO 2 emissions renewables only 0.1% but potential for zero carbon

91. Renewable energy examples Lee Moor Farm, Northumberland – 100 kW woodchip boiler provides heat to tenanted business units Parkers Nurseries, Frinton, Essex - 700kW woodchip boiler (2005) - clean waste wood, woodland residues. 40-tonne fuel store, buffer tank, replaced 5 oil/gas boilers. Lowbrook Farm, Blandford, Dorset – 340kW biogas digester – dairy manures and silage maize (proposed) Ensus ethanol plant, Teesside (under construction) – 400 million litres/year from 1.2 million tonnes wheat, start-up 2009 Numerous wind farms, e.g. turkey processing, Norfolk

92. Perennial energy crops – a new sub-sector SRC willow (harvested every three years) and miscanthus (harvested annually) Solid biomass fuel, together with environmental services (high biodiversity, low inputs, low run-off) However - loss of flexibility in marketing, cannot be diverted back to food uses like food-based feedstocks Short rotation coppice willow Miscanthus

93. Small-scale biofuel production HM Revenue and Customs – simplification of regulations from Summer 2007, allow 2500 litres/year without registration or payment of fuel excise duty home-made biodiesel processor commercial processor small oil press 2500 litres/year is the fuel consumption of one small commercial vehicle doing 11000 miles at 20 mpg - or one or more diesel cars totalling 25,000 miles at 45 mpg

94. Thank you Dr Jonathan Scurlock Chief Policy Adviser, Renewable Energy, Climate Change and Non-Food Crops National Farmers’ Union Stoneleigh Park Warwicks CV8 2TZ [email_address]

96. Environmental Impacts and Water Usage Mr Robert Runcie Environment Agency

97. Climate Change and The Water Framework Directive Robert Runcie Regional Director, Environment Agency

98. Water Framework Directive: A new opportunity Many organisations working together Long-term planning Applied across Europe Help manage the impacts of climate change

99. Aims of the Directive Prevent deterioration and enhance status of water environment Promote sustainable water use Reduce pollution Help to mitigate effects of floods and droughts

100. Good Ecological Status / Potential Biology Chemical water quality Physical structure Water quantity

101. Protection to Higher Standards Protected areas e.g. recreational waters, nutrient sensitive waters, conservation sites, drinking water sources No deterioration

102. Getting the balance right Taking account of different pressures environmental social economic Risk based approach Impact of Climate Change

103. River Basin Management Plans Statutory strategic regional plans for water Environmental objectives for each water body Programmes of Measures Nine River Basin Districts in England and Wales; two cross border (Solway Tweed & Northumbria)

104. The Thames River Basin District

105. Taking account of climate change

106. Drought

107. Flooding

108. TE2100

109. Flood Defence Operations

110. The Facts behind the Fiction

111. Risks posed by climate change to good ecological status Changing river flows and sea level (hydro-morphological parameters) Changes in flora and fauna (biological parameters) More frequent flushing of CSOs (physio-chemical parameters)

112. Significant Water Management Issues Point source discharges Low flow Physical modification Changing land management practices Future development Urban run-off (including flood risk management) Aquatic alien species

113. Some solutions

114. Wildlife refuges

115. Key deadlines July 2007: Significant Water Management Issues (out for consultation) Dec 2008: Draft River Basin Management Plan Dec 2009: Thames River Basin Management Plan

116. Making a lasting difference Long-term programme of environmental improvement Working with challenges: Climate change Protecting wildlife New homes and flooding risk Further Information: www.environment-agency.gov.uk/wfd [email_address]

118. Q&A

119. Lunch time