Basic Concept of Climate Change and Overview of Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy

Presentation Outlines
1. Introduction
2. Basic Concepts of Climate & Climate Change
3. Opportunities & Strategies to Minimize Impacts of Climate Change in Agriculture Sector
4. Government Response to the Impacts of Climate Change
5. Agriculture Sector CRGE Strategy Focuses & Targets
6. What has been done to Achieve Agriculture Sector CRGE Strategy Targets
7. Challenges & Opportunities
8. Lessons learned
2

1. Introduction
Climate change and its impact on environment and world economy is the
crucial issue of the world today.
The population of the developing world particularly Africa is the most
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
This is because of their heavy dependence on the natural resource and
lack of means to cope up with the impacts of climate change.

Introduction cont’d…
Developed countries account for about 23% of world population but use
about 80% of world resources.
Less developed countries account for about 73% of the world population
but use only about 20% of world resources.
Those who benefited from the activities causing the climate change and
those who did not are equally affected.

2. Basic Concepts of Climate and Climate Change
5
2.1 Definitions of basic terminologies
Weather: is the state of the atmosphere over a short period of time (daily
basis ) at a particular place and time as regards heat, cloudiness, dryness,
sunshine, wind, rain, etc.
Climate: is long-term weather patterns that describe a specific region or
place. Elements of the weather patterns include temperature, cloudiness,
humidity, precipitation, and winds over long periods of time (30 year
standard averaging period).

Definitions of basic terminologies cont’d…
Climate variability: is short-term change in climate caused by changes in
the ocean and atmosphere.
Climate variability is not the same as climate change but climate change
can changes climate variability.
Climate change: is a long-term shift in the statistics of the weather mostly
caused by human interference.
6

2.2 Principles of climate
2.2.1 Climate system
 Climate system: is defined of as the five components in the geophysical
system and the atmosphere and other four components which directly interact
with the atmosphere and which jointly determine the climate of the atmosphere.
 Five components are: Atmosphere, Ocean, Land surface, Ice and snow
surfaces and Biosphere (both terrestrial and marine).
 Earth’s climate involves variations in a complex system in which the
atmosphere interacts with many other components (Figure 1).

Climate system cont’d …
.
8
Figure 1: Simplified schematic view of the components of the global climate system and their interactions

1.2.2 Climate change and its cause
Climate change: is a long-term shift in the statistics of the weather.
Change in mean, extremes and variability of parameters such as
(temperature, rainfall and wind speed) persists for an extended period
of time.
Causes of climate change can be natural and human induced.
9

Causes of climate change
Greenhouse
Gases
Aerosols
Land
Use
Urbanization
Anthropogenic
(Human Induced)
Natural
Land
Volcanic
Eruptions
Changes
Solar
Activity
Changes
in
the
Earth's
Orbit
Ocean

Cause of climate change cont’d…
Anthropogenic activates those increases in GHG (CO2, CH4 & N2O)
concentration in the atmosphere.
11
Major Anthropogenic Activates
Land use
Change
Fossil
Fuel use

1.2.3 Evidence & Indicators climate change
12
Global evidences
Flooding in Bangladesh Shrinking Greenland Ice Sheet
Local evidences
Repeated Drought Effect in Ethiopia
 Ethiopia’s major seasons:-
 BELG (small rainy season) - February to May
 KIREMT (main rainy season) - June to September
 BEGA (dry season) - October to January
 Evidences of climate change

48
18
15
10
6
3
1006-1200 1252-1340 1400-1789 1800-1900 1900-1987 1988-2002
Average recurence
average recurence

Climate Change and its impact at national level
ELNINO year Famine/ drought year (GC) IMPACT
1965 1964-1966 About 1.5 million people affected
1972-1973 1973-1974 About 200,000 people and 30% of
livestock dead
1978-79 1.4 million
1982-1983 1983-1984 8 million people affected and Many
livestock lost
1986-87 1987-1988 7 million people affected
1991-92 1990-1992 About 0.5 million people affected
1993 1993-94 7.6 million People affected
2002/2003 2002/2003 About 13 million people were in need of
food assistance
Making Oromia Agriclture Climate Smart

Making Oromia Agriclture Climate Smart

1.2.4 Greenhouse gases & Global warming
17
CO2
I. Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Main sources are:-
 Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas);
 Cement production;
 Land use change (e.g. deforestation);
 Main sources are:-
 Wetlands (including paddy rice);
 Fermentation in guts of ruminant animals;
II. Methane (CH4)

Greenhouse gases cont’d…
III. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) N2O
Main sources are:-
 Nitrogen in soils (from artificial fertilizers and naturally occurring soil bacteria);
 Decomposition of animal manure;

Global warming
 Result in increase an average temperatures that cause global warming
& climate change.
1 Incoming solar radiation consists
primarily UV & visible light
About 1/3 of the solar radiation reflected
from atmosphere, clouds & the surface
of earth back into the space
2
The remaining solar radiation
absorbed by clouds & the
surface of earth both become
warmer & emit infrared
radiation
3
Much of the emitted infrared
radiation from the earth
absorbed by GHG in the
atmosphere the remainder is
emitted into the space
4
As GHG absorb infrared radiation they
become warm & emit infrared radiation
back into earth. The grater the
concentration of GHG the more infrared
radiation absorbed & emit back into earth.
5

Major effects of
global warming

1.2.5 Impacts of climate change
21
In Ethiopia the impacts are manifested in the form of:
 Drought  Flood
It become threat to:
 Agricultural productivity & food security;
 National economic development & GDP.

Impacts of climate change cont’d…
I. Impacts on agriculture & food security
Impacts on crop yield:-
 With adequate moisture, the potential growing season is largely
determined by temperature.
 The rate at which plants grow and their growth stages (crop phenology)
is regulated by temperature.
 Climate change will bring hazards of greater water stress and risk of
higher temperature that can quickly damage crops.
22

 Impacts on food security
23 Impacts of climate change cont’d…

II. Impacts on health
Result in outbreak of disease:
 Other epidemic disease;
24
 Expansion of malaria and;

25
III. Impacts on water
Result in shortage (tropical) and excess (tempter) water
 Decline water availability;
 Flooding;

IV. Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity
Climate change threatens marine and terrestrial organisms by
push some species beyond their ability to adapt.
Special stress is being placed on cold-adapted species.
Multiple stress and impacts induced are results in:
 Reducing ecosystem services and functioning and;
 Losses of biodiversity
26 Impacts of climate change cont’d…

 Historical evidences of impacts:
Temperature - 1960- 1990 mean T increased by 1.20 c;
 Rainfall – variable.
 It results in:
 Drought - since the 1980s claimed lives & affected the GDP;
 Floods - affected lives & crops.
 Current evidences of impacts:
Temperature - mean T increased by 1.30 c;
 Rainfall – erratic & variable.
27
V. Evidences of climate related impacts in Ethiopia

 It results in:
 Recurrent drought – led to:
• 1% - 4% decline in GDP;
• 2% reduction in agricultural output;
• 15% inflation rate.
 Floods – led to:
• It cost of range ($3.5m-$6m) per event;
• Rain induced soil erosion reduce GDP
by around 1%.
28

 Future predicted vulnerability indicates:
 Temperature – mean T increased +2.20 c by 2050 & +3.30 c by 2090;
 Rainfall - highly uncertainties (national annual average rainfall vary from -
25% to +30%).
 It may results in:
 Flood & drought events - likely to increase;
 Impact of CC - could reduce 10% or more of GDP by 2050.
29

Impacts are highly affect developing country why?
 Economy manly depend on rain-feed farming system;
 Limited capacity to cope with shocks.
To overcome those impacts developing of strategies that
enhance resilience, adaptation & mitigation capacity
against climate change on economically wide sectors.
30

3. Opportunities and Strategies to Minimize Impacts of
Climate Change in Agriculture Sector
3.1 Resilience and resilience building strategies
 Resilience: can be described as the capacity of systems,
communities, or individuals to prevent, mitigate or cope with risk
and recover from shocks.
 Resilience build strategy: can be achieved by reducing
vulnerabilities and increasing adaptive capacity through:-
 Reduce exposure to risk;
 Reduce the sensitivity of systems to shocks;
 Increase adaptive capacity.
31

Resilience and resilience building strategies
32
Components of resilience

3.2 Adaptation and adaptation building strategies
 Adaptation: is actions taken to reduce vulnerability to actual or
expected climate change.
 Effective adaptation strategies are focusing on:
 Developing cultivars tolerant to heat, stress, flood & drought;
 Modifying crop management practices & improving water management;
 Adopting new farm techniques such as crop diversification, improving pest
management, better weather forecasting, crop insurance & binding the
indigenous technical knowledge of farmers.
33

Adaptation and adaptation building strategies
34
Framework of climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation in agriculture

3.3 Mitigation and mitigation building strategies
Mitigation: reducing net emissions of GHGs.
Mitigation can be more effective if using integrated approaches:
 Reduce net emissions of GHGs; (CO2, CH4 & N2O);
 Enhance carbon sinks in land based sectors: (in the soil & vegetation biomass).
 Mitigation can implemented in:
 Agriculture sector (sinks in the soil);
 Forest sector (sinks in the vegetation biomass).
35

4. Government Response to the Impacts of Climate
Change
4.1 Government has initiated CRGE Strategy in 2011:
 To protect the country from the adverse effect of CC;
 To realize vision of attaining a middle income by 2025;
Possible options to achieve middle income are:-
 Conventional development path (unsustainable use of natural resources & sharp
increase in GHG emissions);
 Green growth path (promote development & sustainability).
36

4.2 Conventional development path Vs green growth path
I. Economy lock into out-dated technologies:
 Second-hand & inefficient technologies
 Economy is not competent
II. Over-exploitation of natural resources:
 2001-2009 cropland increased to 12.6 mil ha to produce 19 mil tone of crop
(ratio of 0.7 ha of deforestation for 1 ha of cropland ≈ 1.32 mil ha)
 Decreasing of this ratio to 0.55 ha by 2030 cropland increase to 27 mil ha to
produce 74 mil ton of crop
 It would require the deforestation of nearly 9 mil ha of forest land
37

Conventional development Vs green growth cont’d ...
III. Increasing GHG emissions:
 From 150 Mt CO2 e in 2010 to 400 Mt CO2 e by 2030
 It result in per capita basis emissions increase from 1.8 t to 3.0 t
 Exceed the global target to keep per capita emissions between 1 t & 2 t
38

39
 BAU sectorial current & projected GHG emissions

IV. Financially challenging: (150 billion USD)
 Funding not readily available for investment required to reach growth
targets;
 Fuel share increases from 4% of GDP in 2010 to 7% by 2030.
V. Face resource constraints:
 Cattle population increases from 50-90 mil by2030;
 It could reach the carrying capacity of our grazing land.
40

4.3 Pillars of CRGE strategy
Middle income country in 2025
SLU via efficient Agr. Sequestration Renewable E. source Resource eff. Techno.
Improving crop &
livestock production
practices
( Agriculture 75-185)
 Crop sector
▪ Intensify agriculture
▪ Create new agricultural land
in degraded areas through
irrigation
▪ Use lower-emitting
techniques
Livestock sector
▪ Improve animal value chain
efficiency
▪ Shift animal mix (poultry)
▪ Mechanize
▪ Improve rangeland mgt.
Protecting & re-
establishing
forests
(Forestry 55-90)
▪ Reduce fuel-wood
demand
▪ using fuel-efficient
stoves & alternative-fuel
▪ Increase carbon
sequestration in forests
& woodlands through
(afforestation,
reforestation & forest
management)
Expanding renewable
& clean energy
generation
(Electric Power 5-0)
▪ Build renewable power
generation capacity
▪ Switch-off fossil fuel power
generation
Shifting to modern &
energy efficient
technologies
(Industry, Transport &
Buildings 15-125)
▪ Improve energy efficiency &
production processes of
industry
▪ Improve fuel efficiency of cars
▪ Construct electric rail network
▪ Substitute fossil fuel by bio-
fuels
▪ Improve waste management
90 130 19* 35
Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy
250 Mt CO2e abatement potential in 2030
41

4.4 Focus of CRGE strategy
Focus of CRGE strategy:
 Offers an opportunity to achieve development targets sustainably &
resource-efficient way;
 Overcomes the possible conflict between economic growth &
fighting climate change;
 “Leapfrogging” to the newest & best efficient technology rather than
out-dated technologies.
42

4.5 Building CRGE strategy
Integration of economic growth with low GHG emissions
43

Building CRGE strategy cont’d…
CRGE strategy is supported by:
44
II. Climate Resilient (CR)
 A commitment to foster zero net carbon growth
 A commitment to protect economy from the negative impacts of changing
climate & seek opportunities in a changing climate.
III. CRGE Facility (Funding Instrument)
 Resource mobilization
I. Green Economy (GE)

4.6 Implementing CRGE strategy could ensure
low carbon economic development
45
BAU
Scena
rio CRGE Scenario
Agriculture
Sector
Share

4.7 Benefits of building CRGE
Allow to tap climate finance:
 Improves GHG abatement potential & access to climate finance.
Lead to quality life & sustainable socio-economic
development:
 Improve public health (through better air & water quality);
 Promote rural economic development (by increasing soil fertility & food
security).
46

April 3-5/ 2015
Hawassa
47
5. Agriculture Sector CRGE Strategy
Focuses & Targets

5.1 Livestock Sector
5.1.1 Livestock’s contribution for GHG emissions BAU 124
Mt CO2 e by 2030
48
2030
ttle, emits
anure and
(cattle only),
xide from
sions per head
ased on IPCC
g an increase in
until 2030
ure left on
pected to
35%, as more
izer1
emissions from
been calculated
marks, refined
ssions
BAU emissions estimations by 2030
Emissions from cities more than triple under a business-
as-usual scenario until 2030
Emissions per year, Mt CO2e
Baseline
2010
65
12
112
11
83
9
57
N2O from
manure left
on pasture
and range
CH4 from enteric
fermentation
and manure
BAU
2030
124
BAU
2020
94

5.1.2 Identified initiatives to reduce emissions
49 . Abatement potential of GHG
emissions from livestock in
Ethiopia up to 48 Mt CO2e in
2030
1
16.1
2
3
11.2
17.7
Initiatives allow
for total
reduction of
cattle
population of
more than 40
Mln as compared
to current
practices
% based on 0
124
Business as Usual
2030
Green Growth
2030
Label
Cattle value
chain
efficiency
improveme
nt
1
 Increase productivity of per cattle through better
feeding, health, higher off take & market (reach
19.5 mil HH by 2030)
 Enable to reach GDP targets while reducing
population growth by ~14 Mln heads of cattle
Initiatives Description
 Improve poultry meat supply from smallholders &
commercial farms (fulfill 30% of the Ethiopian
meat consumption with poultry by 2030) (reach
17.6 mil HH by 2030)
 Reduce population size by ~17 Mln heads of cattle
Increase
share of
poultry in
domestic
consumption
& supply
2
Mechanizati
on of draft
power
3
Rangeland
Managemen
t
4
 Increase soil carbon content & productivity of
pastureland through reseeding, rotational
grazing, water point development, etc (reach 5
mil he by 2030)
 Introduce tractor in plain area & increase
productivity of draft power through small scale
mechanization programs (reach 13.2 mil HH by
2030)
 Reduce number of oxen by ~10 Mln
3 4

5.2 Crop Sector
5.2.1 Soil’s contribution for GHG emissions BAU 61 Mt CO2 e
by 2030
50

5.2.2 Identified initiatives to reduce emissions
51
61
1
40
2
27.2
3
10.6
Enhancing of
lower-emitting
techniques for
agriculture
1
Enhancing of
yield-increasing
techniques for
agriculture
2
Creation of new
agricultural land
in arid areas
through
irrigation
3
Business as Usual
2030
Green Growth
2030
Label
% based on 0
 Soil nutrient & crop management
Tillage/residue management
 Watershed-based integrated farming
systems & management
Improved seeds
Irrigation
Organic and inorganic fertilizer
Best agronomic practices
 Creating new agricultural land out of
uncultivated non-forest arid areas through
irrigation
. Abatement potential of GHG
emissions from Soil in Ethiopia
up to 78 Mt CO2e in 2030

April 3-5/ 2015
Hawassa
52
y
6. What has been done to Achieve
Agriculture Sector CRGE Strategy
Targets

6.1 Sustainable land management programme
 > 24 mill. he of land was treated by integrated watershed
management practices through community mobilization.
53

 > 2.2 mill. he of land was became productive through irrigation
54
6.2 Irrigation programme

55
Prioritized
programmatic
measures 41
Cost
effectiveness
Poverty alleviation,
equity & ensure
food security
Positive effect
on GTP
targets
Relevance &
feasibility in the
local context
Long list clustered
potential initiatives
350
6.3 Agriculture sector’s Climate Resilience strategy
was developed
 To build resilient agriculture 41 promising CSA options identified.
Filtering steps to shortlist resilience CSA options

Enhance
Adaptatio
n
Increase
Mitigatio
n
Improve
Liveliho
od
56
Triple-
win
Improve productivity:
average or better than
average yields and
income
Increasing farmers’
capacity: to
compensate production
losses incurred from
climate variability
Improve GHG emission
reductions: when compared
to business as usual
practices
Why? CSA practices identified as promising options:
MoFEC_2010_Training_Final2010_CRGE_National_Training_Doc2010_Training_PPClimate_Smart_AgricultureClimate-Smart Agriculture_ Helping the World Produce More Food.mp4
 Since CSA practices are ensure a measurable “triple win” effect
over conventional practice such as:

6.4. Expected outputs & Achievements of FTI project
6.4.1 Physical activity
 The project was implemented in 27 woredas of all regions under 5 major outputs:-
57
13%
20%
62%
5%
Beneficiaryhouseholdsbyoutput
Cropproduction
beneficiaries
Livestockdevelopment
beneficiaries
Sustainableland
managementbeneficiaries
Improvedadaptation
beneficiaries

Output 1: Capacity development
Provide practical training on climate proof techniques
58
 National level  Woreda level  Community level
 Undertake experience sharing amongst stakeholders
 Among Regions
 Among Woreda
 Among Kebeles

2.1 Undertake soil fertility management activities
2.2 Improve crop management practices
2.3 Provide improved drought resistance crop varieties & technologies
59
Output 2: Increasing crop productivity through CSA practices
Composting
Cover crop Crop residue
management
Maize Sorghum Wheat
Handheld-tractors &
Water pumps
Strip-cropping, Inter-cropping Row planting

Output 3: Increasing livestock productivity through CSA practices
60
3.2 Improve livestock service delivery & breed
3.1 Promote improve animal feed & stall feeding
Cross breed & better
local heifer
Improved sheep & goats
Equipped health posts
with basic facilities
3.3 Improve animal value chain efficiency & promote lower-emitting sources of protein
Cattle & Shoat
Fattening
Improved poultry Modern & Transitional beehives
with its accessories
Improved feed Improved grass

Output 4: Productive lands conservation & degraded lands rehabilitation
61
 Physical
4.1 Soil & Water conservation activities
4.1 Increased water availability & ground water utilization
 Biological

6.4.2 Performance evaluation
63
Livestock: 17,741
tCo2eq
Crop: 136,199 tCo2eq
NRM, above ground
biomass: 592,857 tCo2eq
 Mitigation co-benefits:- GHG reduction by sectors:
 Total GHG reduced by sectors 746,797 tCO2eq

 GHG reduction by regions
64
(72,082)
(144,141)
40,673
(147,883)
(109,532)
(30,344)
(59,093)
(25,139)
(46,124)
(71,786)
(160,000)
(140,000)
(120,000)
(100,000)
(80,000)
(60,000)
(40,000)
(20,000)
-
tCO
2
eq
Regions

 Improve livelihood and enhance adaptation
Through interventions of crop CSA practices that improve
productivity of crops increased on average by 80% compared
with pre-project assessment result.
Through interventions of livestock CSA practices that improve
productivity of livestock households income from livestock
sector on average increased by 57% compared with pre-project
assessment result.
65

6.4.3 Empowering institutional framework
 Set up the necessary framework for:
66
 Agriculture sector carbon pools GHG assessment guidelines
prepared (above ground biomass, soil and livestock);
 MRV, GHG emissions and vulnerability assessment guideline
prepared.

7. Challenges & Opportunities
 Challenges:-
 Shortage & absence of some CSA input & supply system (improved seed,
poultry, beehive, improved sheep and goat breed)
67
 Open grazing system;
 Complete removal & burning of crop residue;

Challenges & Opportunities cont’d …
Opportunities:-
 Strong government commitment & availability of reliable national policies,
strategies & programmes that promote CSA practices within the country;
68
 Well established extension system and institutional setup at grass root level;
 Availability of agro-ecologically spread Agricultural Research Centres and
Universities;
 CRGE indicators are mainstreamed institutionally in all sectors of MoANR;
 CRGE was mainstreamed in to the GTP II;
 International and regional organizations are willing to support implementation
of CSA.

8. Lessons Learned
 Integrated project’s design in an interrelated area specific implementation
of activities in a watershed enabled:
 Smallholders and pastoralists to diversify and improves their livelihoods;
(integration crop, livestock NRM)
 Optimize efficient utilization of limited resources, bring synergistic positive
impacts & benefited all social set up (youth, women).
 Using existing institution to manage the project has created sense of
ownership & reduced huge overhead costs observable in conventional
projects.
69

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