Presentations made at the PSSP First Annual Conference - December 13, 14, 2012 - Planning Commission, Islamabad, Pakistan

1. Rural Urban Transformation in Pakistan:
A spatial analysis of urbanization and
market access from 1965 - 2010
Ahmad Waqas, Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt
Increasing Productivity and
Unleashing Growth in Pakistan
Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP) First Annual Conference

2. Urbanization in Pakistan
• Urbanization in most countries is based on
administrative boundaries, but this type of definition
does not take into account urban / peri-urban
networks.
• According to the Framework for Economic Growth
(Planning Commission, May 2011):
– 32% of the population in 1998 was considered urban
– Projections suggest that over 50% will be urban in 2025
(using administrative boundary definitions)
• Planning Commission’s Task Force on urban
development has emphasized the need for a policy
that can transform cities as engines of growth.

3. Urbanization in Pakistan (2)
• Currently, there are 9 cities in Pakistan with
population exceeding 1 million
• There are approximately 75 cities with
population between 100,000 and a million.
• Networks of city clusters will be the beacons of
production and exchange. (Planning
Commission, 2011)

4. Connecting to Compete
(Framework for Economic Growth, May 2011)
• Proximity and density create large markets for
goods and services.
• Large markets allow interactivity; nurture
innovation and entrepreneurship.
• Innovation, specialization, large-scale
production occurs in dense clusters, where
there is greater competition.

5. Urbanization in terms of
agglomeration
• Given the administrative boundary definition of
urbanization, it is difficult to include urbanization
that extends outside of predefined areas.
• Urban areas are not comparable over time if
administrative boundaries are changed
• With this study we provide a consistent definition
of urban areas which can be compared over time,
across countries and within national boundaries

6. Methodology
• In order to standardize urbanization measurements, we
use methodology developed by Uchida and Nelson (2009)
which incorporates a series of GIS data and analyses
including:
• Travel time rasters,
• Population density
• Proximity to cities greater than 500,000
• Urban areas defined using specific thresholds:
– A population density greater than 150 people per km2;
– Populations located within 1 hour travel time to a city of at least
500,000 people.
– City centers of at least 500,000 people

7. Methodology (2)
This study uses:
• GIS road network data from Survey of Pakistan
(1965, 1994, 2010)
• Population data from Pakistan Census Organization
(1998)
• Population density grids:
– Landscan
– GRUMP (Global Rural and Urban Mapping Project,
Columbia University)
• Other biophysical data to create a travel time grid:
– rivers, water bodies, elevation and slope

8. Methodology (3)
In order to measure travel time to a major city:
Estimation of Travel Times
• A series of GIS layers are merged into a ‘friction layer’
which represents the time required to cross each
pixel
• Road type and class
–Metalled – all weather
–Unmetalled – all weather
–Tracks – dry weather
• Waterbodies
• Landcover
• Slope

9. 1965: Travel time to a city of 500k

10. 1994: Travel time to a city of 500k

11. 2010: Travel time to a city of 500k

12. Travel time
• Transportation infrastructure has expanded
and improved over time
• New cities have emerged and continued to
grow.
– In 1965: Lahore and Karachi were the two cities
greater than 500,000 population
– 2010: There are 13 cities greater than 500,000
population

13. Percent population connected
to a major city in 2010
100%
80%
60%
Access >10 hour
40%
Access 5 - 10 hour
20% Access 3 to 5 hour
Access 1 to 3 hour
0% Access < 1 hour
• Over 65 percent of the population in Pakistan is within 3 hours from a city of 500k
(not taking into account FATA, AJK and Gilgit Baltistan)
• Some areas remain more remote than others:
• 38 % of the population in Sindh is 5-10 hours from a major city
• 42 % in Balochistan are 5-10 hours from a major city, and 14 % are > 10 hours
from a major city.

14. Agglomeration Index
Once travel time is calculated to each major city for each
census year, we are able to incorporate the cost distance
raster into an agglomeration index measurement:
Urban population is determined:
– Within 2 area of a population density of at least 150 people
an
per km (calculated GRUMP and LandScan population density
grids and adjusting for population growth
– Within a city of 500,000 people or within one hour travel time
to a city of at least 500,000 people
Peri-urban population is determined:
– Within 2 area of a population density of less than 150 people
an
per km and within one hour Travel Time
– Within a city of 500,000 people or within three hours travel
time to a city of at least 500,000 people

15. 1965: Agglomeration – Lahore & Islamabad

16. 1994: Agglomeration – Lahore & Islamabad

17. 2010: Agglomeration – Lahore & Islamabad

18. Pakistan: Urbanization over time
100%
36 33
80%
60% 76
Rural
37 Peri urban
39
40%
Urban
20%
18 25 31
0% 6
1965 1994 2010
• According to the agglomeration index, 68% of the population is urban and
peri-urban
• More peri-urban people became urban as population in these areas
increased; increased connectivity to urban centers also contributed to the
higher percentage of the population in agglomerated areas.

19. Agglomeration Index Over Time
Percent Urban 1965 1994 2010
Islamabad 0.0 97.3 98.3
Punjab 9.5 29.0 37.4
Sindh 5.9 32.3 35.7
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.0 20.9 25.3
Balochistan 0.0 10.8 12.7
FATA 0.0 7.2 8.0
AJK 0.0 0.0 0.4
Gilgit Baltistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pakistan 6.0 25.2 30.8
• According to the agglomeration index, only 6 percent of the national population was
urban in 1965
• By 1994, 25 percent of the population was urban.
• Transportation infrastructure improved and expanded dramatically from 1965
• Islamabad grew in size to over 500k people
• Lahore, Faisalabad, and Gujranwala grew into networked cities and agglomerated
corridors
• By 2010, more cities (Sialkot and Sargodha) reached the 500k threshold; more rural
areas became peri-urban through improved transport links to urban centers.

20. Real GDP (1999) billion rupees
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000 Services
Industry
2,000
Agriculture
1,000
0
1965 1994 2010
Value Added (Rs billion)
• Agriculture remains an important and growing sector of economy, even though
rural population is decreasing.
• Agriculture grew by 4.4% per year from 1994 to 2010
• Industry sector grew at 4 % per year from 1994 to 2010
• Services sector also grew significantly by 5.4% per year from 1994 to 2010

21. Agricultural incomes per person
20
Real Ag GDP (FY1999) / Rural population
15
Agglomeration
Index
10
Administrative
division estimates
5 (UN projection)
0
1965 1994 2010
• Using the Agglomeration index definition of urban and rural, rural agric
income / person increased nearly 4 fold since 1965 (in real terms)
• Using the administrative definition of urban/rural areas, agricultural income
per person has doubled.
• From 60's - early 80's, the green revolution technology (improved seed,
fertilizer and irrigation) accounted for most of this agricultural growth
• Slower agricultural growth since then, but still substantial due to
diversification into higher value products

22. Conclusion
• Since 1965, Pakistan has continued to invest in key
transportation linkages which have promoted greater
urbanization
• Taking into account peri-urban and urban populations
(agglomeration index): urbanization in Pakistan is much
greater than urban based on administrative unit definition.
– UN 2010: 36% urban
– Agglomeration Index 2010: 68% Peri-urban and urban
• The structure of the economy has changed as the country
has urbanized; the share of services and industry increased
from 59% in 1965 to 89% in 2010
• Agriculture remains an important sector in the economy
– It is a dynamic sector: rural agricultural income per rural
resident has increased four-fold
– For the one-third of Pakistan’s population that resides in rural
areas (using the agglomeration definition), agricultural growth is
crucial for improving household welfare.

23. Conclusion
• This dramatic transformation in the economic
landscape is likely to continue, with important
implications for city planning
• Focus on vertical expansion rather than
horizontal expansion (Framework for Economic
Growth, 2011)
– Vertical expansion could slow the peri-urban growth
in the future
• In spite of urban growth, 1/3 of Pakistan’s
population resides in rural areas more than 3
hours travel time of urban agglomerations of
500k.

24. Thank You