Cairn India has revised upwards its production targets, in-place reserves, and discovered reserves for its Rajasthan oil block. It has increased its discovered resource base in the Rajasthan basin to 4.0 billion barrels of oil equivalent and raised its potential resource base to 6.5 billion barrels. Cairn India has also raised its vision for plateau production rate from the Rajasthan block to 240,000 barrels per day, up from 175,000 barrels per day previously. These increases have led the analyst to revise upwards its fair value estimate for Cairn India shares to Rs315 per share.
Vedanta Resources and Sesa Goa have agreed to acquire a 51-60% stake in Cairn India from Cairn Energy for Rs405 per share, of which Rs355 per share is for acquisition and Rs50 is a non-compete fee. Vedanta and Sesa Goa will make an open offer for 20% of Cairn India shares at Rs355 per share, and Sesa Goa will make a strategic investment of 20% in Cairn India acquired from Vedanta. The deal is subject to regulatory approvals and a special shareholder resolution.
South Indian Bank reported net profits of Rs. 58 crore for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, in line with analyst estimates. Business growth was strong, with advances growing 33.6% year-over-year and deposits growing 25.1% year-over-year. Asset quality remained stable with gross and net NPA ratios of 1.3% and 0.4% respectively. Operating expenses grew 47.1% sequentially but the bank plans to control expenses going forward. The analyst maintains a Neutral rating on the stock as it trades at 6.8 times estimated fiscal year 2012 earnings per share of Rs. 28.5 per share.
Anant Raj Industries' (ARIL) 4QFY2010 results were below expectations due to a delay in launching a premium residential project. Rental income grew 10.6% but profit fell 53.9% quarter-over-quarter. The analyst downgraded earnings estimates for FY2011-FY2012 to account for the delayed project launch. However, ARIL has a strong development pipeline and the analyst maintains a Buy rating due to ARIL's low-cost land bank and strong balance sheet.
Punjab National Bank reported flat net profit of Rs1,068cr for 1QFY2011, higher than estimates due to strong growth in net interest income and non-interest income. However, asset quality pressures increased with gross and net NPAs rising significantly. Total advances grew 24.6% year-over-year driven by growth in the agriculture, SME, and corporate segments. Net interest margins declined slightly due to higher cost of deposits outpacing growth in asset yields. The bank increased provisions for NPAs in the quarter and restructured an additional Rs878cr in loans.
Vascon Engineers Limited presented an analyst meeting covering the following topics:
1) The company provides engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services as well as real estate development.
2) In the most recent quarter, the company signed an agreement to develop a large township in Chennai and was awarded over Rs. 1,300 million in new EPC orders.
3) Financially, total income grew 19% in the first half of the fiscal year compared to the same period last year, while profit after tax grew 33%.
Sterlite Industries reported net revenue of Rs7,111cr for 4QFY2010, in line with estimates. Net profit was also in line with estimates at Rs1,381cr. Revenue growth was driven by higher metal prices, strong zinc and lead business performance, and higher by-product prices. Sterlite is well positioned to capitalize on strong metal demand through expansion plans and cost reductions. The company also announced a 1:1 bonus issue and stock split.
KPR Mill reported 15.4% revenue growth in 9mFY12 but profitability was impacted by Tamil Nadu's power shortage. While KPR's exports grew strongly, output was reduced in Q3FY12 due to lower utilization from power cuts. Cotton prices stabilized after an initial sharp fall resulted in a one-time inventory write-down for KPR. The company's FY13 outlook is positive as the full benefits of its expanded yarn capacity will be realized and power availability is expected to improve in the second half of the year. However, near-term estimates have been reduced due to the expected impact of continuing power issues in the first quarter of FY13.
KPR Mill is one of the top five yarn producers and largest garment manufacturers in India. It has vertically integrated operations across the textile value chain. The company is increasing its yarn capacity by 60% in FY12 and will achieve 100% power self-sufficiency in FY13 by commissioning a co-generation cum sugar project. This will lead to higher capacity utilization and reduced costs. KPR has demonstrated strong revenue growth, superior margins, and high dividend payouts compared to peers. It is well positioned for further expansion with its innovative management practices and state-of-the-art facilities.
Vedanta Resources and Sesa Goa have agreed to acquire a 51-60% stake in Cairn India from Cairn Energy for Rs405 per share, of which Rs355 per share is for acquisition and Rs50 is a non-compete fee. Vedanta and Sesa Goa will make an open offer for 20% of Cairn India shares at Rs355 per share, and Sesa Goa will make a strategic investment of 20% in Cairn India acquired from Vedanta. The deal is subject to regulatory approvals and a special shareholder resolution.
South Indian Bank reported net profits of Rs. 58 crore for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, in line with analyst estimates. Business growth was strong, with advances growing 33.6% year-over-year and deposits growing 25.1% year-over-year. Asset quality remained stable with gross and net NPA ratios of 1.3% and 0.4% respectively. Operating expenses grew 47.1% sequentially but the bank plans to control expenses going forward. The analyst maintains a Neutral rating on the stock as it trades at 6.8 times estimated fiscal year 2012 earnings per share of Rs. 28.5 per share.
Anant Raj Industries' (ARIL) 4QFY2010 results were below expectations due to a delay in launching a premium residential project. Rental income grew 10.6% but profit fell 53.9% quarter-over-quarter. The analyst downgraded earnings estimates for FY2011-FY2012 to account for the delayed project launch. However, ARIL has a strong development pipeline and the analyst maintains a Buy rating due to ARIL's low-cost land bank and strong balance sheet.
Punjab National Bank reported flat net profit of Rs1,068cr for 1QFY2011, higher than estimates due to strong growth in net interest income and non-interest income. However, asset quality pressures increased with gross and net NPAs rising significantly. Total advances grew 24.6% year-over-year driven by growth in the agriculture, SME, and corporate segments. Net interest margins declined slightly due to higher cost of deposits outpacing growth in asset yields. The bank increased provisions for NPAs in the quarter and restructured an additional Rs878cr in loans.
Vascon Engineers Limited presented an analyst meeting covering the following topics:
1) The company provides engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services as well as real estate development.
2) In the most recent quarter, the company signed an agreement to develop a large township in Chennai and was awarded over Rs. 1,300 million in new EPC orders.
3) Financially, total income grew 19% in the first half of the fiscal year compared to the same period last year, while profit after tax grew 33%.
Sterlite Industries reported net revenue of Rs7,111cr for 4QFY2010, in line with estimates. Net profit was also in line with estimates at Rs1,381cr. Revenue growth was driven by higher metal prices, strong zinc and lead business performance, and higher by-product prices. Sterlite is well positioned to capitalize on strong metal demand through expansion plans and cost reductions. The company also announced a 1:1 bonus issue and stock split.
KPR Mill reported 15.4% revenue growth in 9mFY12 but profitability was impacted by Tamil Nadu's power shortage. While KPR's exports grew strongly, output was reduced in Q3FY12 due to lower utilization from power cuts. Cotton prices stabilized after an initial sharp fall resulted in a one-time inventory write-down for KPR. The company's FY13 outlook is positive as the full benefits of its expanded yarn capacity will be realized and power availability is expected to improve in the second half of the year. However, near-term estimates have been reduced due to the expected impact of continuing power issues in the first quarter of FY13.
KPR Mill is one of the top five yarn producers and largest garment manufacturers in India. It has vertically integrated operations across the textile value chain. The company is increasing its yarn capacity by 60% in FY12 and will achieve 100% power self-sufficiency in FY13 by commissioning a co-generation cum sugar project. This will lead to higher capacity utilization and reduced costs. KPR has demonstrated strong revenue growth, superior margins, and high dividend payouts compared to peers. It is well positioned for further expansion with its innovative management practices and state-of-the-art facilities.
Oriental Bank of Commerce reported a 41.1% rise in net profit for the quarter compared to the same period last year. Net interest income grew 118.4% on strong loan growth of 20.3% and deposit growth of 19.8%. Asset quality was stable with gross and net NPA ratios of 1.7% and 0.7% respectively. The bank upgraded its target price for OBC stock to Rs. 409 based on improved near-term net interest margins and asset quality.
Areva T&D India reported significantly lower revenues and profits for the first quarter of 2010 compared to the previous year. Revenue declined 10.7% and net profit declined 93.2% due to slower order execution, margin pressure from increased competition, higher costs, and mark-to-market losses. The order backlog grew 17.5% but the outlook remains uncertain due to the pending acquisition of Areva T&D by Alstom-Schneider. The document provides details on financial performance and evaluates the company's valuation.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), a government‐owned company operating in
the refining and marketing segment. The company has also diversified into the
petrochemical feedstock and exploration and production segments.
Based on a consolidated FY12 P/E multiple of 12, the fair value for the
company works out to Rs 691.
Ispat Industries is entering a joint venture with Stemcor to set up a 1 million tonne coke oven plant. Ispat will invest Rs. 100 crore in equity and expects the plant to cater to 100% of its coke requirements once operational. Ispat is also setting up a 110MW captive power plant at a cost of Rs. 491 crore that is expected to lead to savings of Rs. 1,300 crore annually. Securing iron ore and coking coal mines will be key to improving raw material integration and future performance. Outlook depends on successful commissioning of the power and coke plants.
Axis Bank has announced its 1QFY2011 results. Net profit grew 32.0% to Rs742cr, better than estimates due to higher than expected net interest income. Advances grew robustly by 39.1% year-over-year driven by corporate lending. Deposits also increased strongly by 33.8% year-over-year. While net interest margins declined, operating performance was strong with stable asset quality. The analyst maintains an 'Accumulate' rating and target price of Rs1,477, implying 10% upside.
- Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) has acquired the remaining 51% stake in Godrej Sara Lee (GSL) for Rs1,050cr, valuing GSL at Rs2,065cr.
- The acquisition makes GCPL the second largest household insecticide player in Asia (outside Japan) and is expected to help GCPL become one of the strongest performers in the home and personal care space in India.
- The acquisition is priced attractively at 15x FY2010 earnings and 2.1x price-to-sales for GSL and is estimated to be earnings per share accretive for GCPL by 8-10%, despite being funded fully by equity dilution.
The document provides a recommendation to buy shares of Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd (NTBCL). Some key points:
- NTBCL operates the Delhi-Noida toll bridge and has seen average daily traffic grow from 17,000 to over 104,000 vehicles. Traffic is expected to double by 2021.
- The company has a favorable business model requiring low capital expenditures and working capital with cash toll collections.
- Post debt restructuring in 2002 and a GDR listing in 2006, the company has a comfortable liquidity position.
- The concession agreement assures a 20% return on capital and increases the concession period if targets are not met, favoring the company.
Based
1) Indian Bank reported an 11% increase in net profit for 1QFY2011 compared to the previous year, which was above estimates. However, gross NPAs sharply increased.
2) Advances and deposits grew by 31% and 19% respectively year-over-year. Net interest income declined slightly sequentially despite higher interest payments on savings deposits.
3) Going forward, the bank's net interest margins may decline in a rising interest rate environment given its moderate CASA ratio of 33%, and asset quality will need to be monitored in the next two quarters.
PVR is expected to see strong performance in its exhibition business in the second and third quarters of FY2011, aided by a robust movie pipeline (both domestic and Hollywood films) and substantial screen additions over the last six months. Management expects 14-15 new 3D English movies to be released over the next 18-24 months. Additionally, PVR is looking to unlock value by selling and leasing back its Phoenix Mill property, which could generate around Rs. 80-100 crore in cash. PVR Pictures is also expected to see multi-fold revenue growth in FY2011 with more film productions lined up. Blu-O, PVR's bowling business, aims to have 150 lanes by FY2012 and
Cairn Energy has agreed to sell between 40-51% of its stake in Cairn India to Vedanta Resources for Rs405 per share, totaling $6.6-8.5 billion. As part of the mandatory open offer to minority shareholders, Vedanta will offer Rs355 per share, a 6.7% premium to Cairn India's closing price. Post-transaction, Cairn Energy will hold a minority 10.6-21.6% stake in Cairn India. The deal is subject to government approval and expected to close in Q1 2011.
This document provides an overview and schedule for Monsanto's "Whistle Stop III" investor event focusing on their soybean and corn platforms. Key points include:
- Monsanto's five-year plan aims to double gross profit by 2012 by more than doubling their seeds and traits segment through innovations in corn and soybeans.
- For 2008, corn seeds and traits are forecast to grow 25% while soybeans are forecast 15% growth with preparations for the Roundup Ready 2 Yield launch.
- For 2009, corn seeds are forecast 25-30% growth while soybeans are forecast over 5% growth with the Roundup Ready 2 Yield commercial release in soybeans.
- The two-day
Union Bank of India reported a 36% increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011 compared to the same period last year. Key highlights included steady loan growth of 30% year-over-year and improving asset quality with stable gross NPA ratios. However, non-interest income declined by 18% year-over-year due to lower treasury gains and fee income. Operating expenses grew 36% year-over-year driven by a 45% rise in employee costs. Overall, the results were better than estimates due to lower provisioning expenses.
1) The document is JBS S.A.'s 1st Quarter 2010 Results presentation from May 14, 2010.
2) It provides an overview of JBS S.A., including its leadership in the global protein industry as the world's largest beef, pork, and lamb producer.
3) The presentation discusses JBS's growth strategy of branding, value-added products, expanding distribution and production platforms, and reducing costs to drive financial results.
1) The document is JBS S.A.'s 1st Quarter 2010 Results presentation from May 14, 2010.
2) It provides an overview of JBS S.A., including its leadership position as the largest protein producer in the world, with a global production platform and major brands.
3) The presentation discusses JBS's strategic focus on branding, value-added products, expanding distribution and production platforms, and reducing costs to drive financial performance.
This document provides an overview of Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., a mining and natural resources company. It discusses Cliffs' strategic focus on operational excellence, building scale through diversification, and generating shareholder returns. The document also summarizes Cliffs' financial performance, business segments, acquisition strategy, and outlook for the steel industry. Cliffs aims to increase production capacity and diversify into other minerals and geographies through acquisitions.
IRB Infrastructure reported a 23.6% increase in net sales to Rs. 512 crore for the first quarter of FY2011 compared to the same period last year. However, this was below the analyst's estimates of Rs. 714 crore due primarily to lower than expected performance in the construction segment. The operating margin of 44.8% outperformed estimates due to record high margins in the construction segment, leading to higher than forecasted net profit of Rs. 117.5 crore. While revising down their estimates, the analysts maintain an Accumulate rating given IRB's strengths in the road segment and portfolio of BOT assets.
Terry Crews, Chief Financial Officer of Monsanto, presented at the 13th Annual Agricultural Biotech Forum on February 10, 2009. In 3 sentences:
Monsanto targeted to more than double its gross profit from $4.2 billion in 2007 to a range of $9.5-9.75 billion by 2012, driven by growth in its Seeds and Genomics and Agricultural Productivity segments. Roundup and other glyphosate-based herbicide volumes were expected to decrease from 257 million gallons in 2008 to around 230 million gallons in 2009, but gross profit for these products was targeted to increase to a range of $2.4-2.5 billion. Corn seed and traits gross profit was
1) For 1QFY2011, Punj Lloyd posted disappointing results with net sales declining 41.7% year-over-year. Operating profits declined 56.1% and the company reported a net loss of Rs 30.6 crore.
2) The top-line was lower than expected, leading the company to downgrade its FY2011 and FY2012 revenue estimates. Problem orders like Ensus and Heera are now out of the picture.
3) While past performance was weak, the outlook is more positive as slow-moving orders have picked up and most challenges are now behind the company. With many negatives priced in, the analyst maintains a "Buy" rating on expectations of improved performance in F
This document discusses Religare's new gold investment product called Easy Gold. It provides an overview of Religare, including its presence in various financial services in India and internationally. Religare aims to expand its emerging market footprint and build a leading global financial services group. The document then discusses why gold is a safe investment option that guards against market volatility and inflation, before introducing the Easy Gold product.
Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC) reported disappointing 1QFY2011 results with revenues growing only 8.5% year-over-year, below expectations. Operating margins were in line with estimates at 9.7% however. The company maintained full-year revenue guidance of Rs5,800cr. NCC has a strong order backlog of Rs16,051cr, providing revenue visibility. While results were below estimates, management sees potential in its diversified operations and order backlog. The stock remains undervalued and analysts maintain a "Buy" rating given growth opportunities.
The document discusses developments in the Indian stock market and economy. It provides an overview of how key indices performed on July 14, 2010, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining 0.3% each. It also summarizes news stories regarding state-owned oil companies coordinating petrol pricing and Reliance Industries pursuing shale gas deals in North America. The document concludes with a breakdown of top gainers and losers for the day as well as trading volumes and foreign institutional investment flows.
Oriental Bank of Commerce reported a 41.1% rise in net profit for the quarter compared to the same period last year. Net interest income grew 118.4% on strong loan growth of 20.3% and deposit growth of 19.8%. Asset quality was stable with gross and net NPA ratios of 1.7% and 0.7% respectively. The bank upgraded its target price for OBC stock to Rs. 409 based on improved near-term net interest margins and asset quality.
Areva T&D India reported significantly lower revenues and profits for the first quarter of 2010 compared to the previous year. Revenue declined 10.7% and net profit declined 93.2% due to slower order execution, margin pressure from increased competition, higher costs, and mark-to-market losses. The order backlog grew 17.5% but the outlook remains uncertain due to the pending acquisition of Areva T&D by Alstom-Schneider. The document provides details on financial performance and evaluates the company's valuation.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), a government‐owned company operating in
the refining and marketing segment. The company has also diversified into the
petrochemical feedstock and exploration and production segments.
Based on a consolidated FY12 P/E multiple of 12, the fair value for the
company works out to Rs 691.
Ispat Industries is entering a joint venture with Stemcor to set up a 1 million tonne coke oven plant. Ispat will invest Rs. 100 crore in equity and expects the plant to cater to 100% of its coke requirements once operational. Ispat is also setting up a 110MW captive power plant at a cost of Rs. 491 crore that is expected to lead to savings of Rs. 1,300 crore annually. Securing iron ore and coking coal mines will be key to improving raw material integration and future performance. Outlook depends on successful commissioning of the power and coke plants.
Axis Bank has announced its 1QFY2011 results. Net profit grew 32.0% to Rs742cr, better than estimates due to higher than expected net interest income. Advances grew robustly by 39.1% year-over-year driven by corporate lending. Deposits also increased strongly by 33.8% year-over-year. While net interest margins declined, operating performance was strong with stable asset quality. The analyst maintains an 'Accumulate' rating and target price of Rs1,477, implying 10% upside.
- Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) has acquired the remaining 51% stake in Godrej Sara Lee (GSL) for Rs1,050cr, valuing GSL at Rs2,065cr.
- The acquisition makes GCPL the second largest household insecticide player in Asia (outside Japan) and is expected to help GCPL become one of the strongest performers in the home and personal care space in India.
- The acquisition is priced attractively at 15x FY2010 earnings and 2.1x price-to-sales for GSL and is estimated to be earnings per share accretive for GCPL by 8-10%, despite being funded fully by equity dilution.
The document provides a recommendation to buy shares of Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd (NTBCL). Some key points:
- NTBCL operates the Delhi-Noida toll bridge and has seen average daily traffic grow from 17,000 to over 104,000 vehicles. Traffic is expected to double by 2021.
- The company has a favorable business model requiring low capital expenditures and working capital with cash toll collections.
- Post debt restructuring in 2002 and a GDR listing in 2006, the company has a comfortable liquidity position.
- The concession agreement assures a 20% return on capital and increases the concession period if targets are not met, favoring the company.
Based
1) Indian Bank reported an 11% increase in net profit for 1QFY2011 compared to the previous year, which was above estimates. However, gross NPAs sharply increased.
2) Advances and deposits grew by 31% and 19% respectively year-over-year. Net interest income declined slightly sequentially despite higher interest payments on savings deposits.
3) Going forward, the bank's net interest margins may decline in a rising interest rate environment given its moderate CASA ratio of 33%, and asset quality will need to be monitored in the next two quarters.
PVR is expected to see strong performance in its exhibition business in the second and third quarters of FY2011, aided by a robust movie pipeline (both domestic and Hollywood films) and substantial screen additions over the last six months. Management expects 14-15 new 3D English movies to be released over the next 18-24 months. Additionally, PVR is looking to unlock value by selling and leasing back its Phoenix Mill property, which could generate around Rs. 80-100 crore in cash. PVR Pictures is also expected to see multi-fold revenue growth in FY2011 with more film productions lined up. Blu-O, PVR's bowling business, aims to have 150 lanes by FY2012 and
Cairn Energy has agreed to sell between 40-51% of its stake in Cairn India to Vedanta Resources for Rs405 per share, totaling $6.6-8.5 billion. As part of the mandatory open offer to minority shareholders, Vedanta will offer Rs355 per share, a 6.7% premium to Cairn India's closing price. Post-transaction, Cairn Energy will hold a minority 10.6-21.6% stake in Cairn India. The deal is subject to government approval and expected to close in Q1 2011.
This document provides an overview and schedule for Monsanto's "Whistle Stop III" investor event focusing on their soybean and corn platforms. Key points include:
- Monsanto's five-year plan aims to double gross profit by 2012 by more than doubling their seeds and traits segment through innovations in corn and soybeans.
- For 2008, corn seeds and traits are forecast to grow 25% while soybeans are forecast 15% growth with preparations for the Roundup Ready 2 Yield launch.
- For 2009, corn seeds are forecast 25-30% growth while soybeans are forecast over 5% growth with the Roundup Ready 2 Yield commercial release in soybeans.
- The two-day
Union Bank of India reported a 36% increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011 compared to the same period last year. Key highlights included steady loan growth of 30% year-over-year and improving asset quality with stable gross NPA ratios. However, non-interest income declined by 18% year-over-year due to lower treasury gains and fee income. Operating expenses grew 36% year-over-year driven by a 45% rise in employee costs. Overall, the results were better than estimates due to lower provisioning expenses.
1) The document is JBS S.A.'s 1st Quarter 2010 Results presentation from May 14, 2010.
2) It provides an overview of JBS S.A., including its leadership in the global protein industry as the world's largest beef, pork, and lamb producer.
3) The presentation discusses JBS's growth strategy of branding, value-added products, expanding distribution and production platforms, and reducing costs to drive financial results.
1) The document is JBS S.A.'s 1st Quarter 2010 Results presentation from May 14, 2010.
2) It provides an overview of JBS S.A., including its leadership position as the largest protein producer in the world, with a global production platform and major brands.
3) The presentation discusses JBS's strategic focus on branding, value-added products, expanding distribution and production platforms, and reducing costs to drive financial performance.
This document provides an overview of Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., a mining and natural resources company. It discusses Cliffs' strategic focus on operational excellence, building scale through diversification, and generating shareholder returns. The document also summarizes Cliffs' financial performance, business segments, acquisition strategy, and outlook for the steel industry. Cliffs aims to increase production capacity and diversify into other minerals and geographies through acquisitions.
IRB Infrastructure reported a 23.6% increase in net sales to Rs. 512 crore for the first quarter of FY2011 compared to the same period last year. However, this was below the analyst's estimates of Rs. 714 crore due primarily to lower than expected performance in the construction segment. The operating margin of 44.8% outperformed estimates due to record high margins in the construction segment, leading to higher than forecasted net profit of Rs. 117.5 crore. While revising down their estimates, the analysts maintain an Accumulate rating given IRB's strengths in the road segment and portfolio of BOT assets.
Terry Crews, Chief Financial Officer of Monsanto, presented at the 13th Annual Agricultural Biotech Forum on February 10, 2009. In 3 sentences:
Monsanto targeted to more than double its gross profit from $4.2 billion in 2007 to a range of $9.5-9.75 billion by 2012, driven by growth in its Seeds and Genomics and Agricultural Productivity segments. Roundup and other glyphosate-based herbicide volumes were expected to decrease from 257 million gallons in 2008 to around 230 million gallons in 2009, but gross profit for these products was targeted to increase to a range of $2.4-2.5 billion. Corn seed and traits gross profit was
1) For 1QFY2011, Punj Lloyd posted disappointing results with net sales declining 41.7% year-over-year. Operating profits declined 56.1% and the company reported a net loss of Rs 30.6 crore.
2) The top-line was lower than expected, leading the company to downgrade its FY2011 and FY2012 revenue estimates. Problem orders like Ensus and Heera are now out of the picture.
3) While past performance was weak, the outlook is more positive as slow-moving orders have picked up and most challenges are now behind the company. With many negatives priced in, the analyst maintains a "Buy" rating on expectations of improved performance in F
This document discusses Religare's new gold investment product called Easy Gold. It provides an overview of Religare, including its presence in various financial services in India and internationally. Religare aims to expand its emerging market footprint and build a leading global financial services group. The document then discusses why gold is a safe investment option that guards against market volatility and inflation, before introducing the Easy Gold product.
Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC) reported disappointing 1QFY2011 results with revenues growing only 8.5% year-over-year, below expectations. Operating margins were in line with estimates at 9.7% however. The company maintained full-year revenue guidance of Rs5,800cr. NCC has a strong order backlog of Rs16,051cr, providing revenue visibility. While results were below estimates, management sees potential in its diversified operations and order backlog. The stock remains undervalued and analysts maintain a "Buy" rating given growth opportunities.
The document discusses developments in the Indian stock market and economy. It provides an overview of how key indices performed on July 14, 2010, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining 0.3% each. It also summarizes news stories regarding state-owned oil companies coordinating petrol pricing and Reliance Industries pursuing shale gas deals in North America. The document concludes with a breakdown of top gainers and losers for the day as well as trading volumes and foreign institutional investment flows.
The markets opened positively but were unable to sustain gains and closed in the red. The Nifty witnessed a bearish candlestick pattern and negative momentum in indicators like RSI and Stochastic, suggesting further downside. Key support levels for the indices are 17,558/5,250 and resistance is at 17,793/5,330. Top gainers during the day were DLF, Tata Motors and Cairn India, while top losers were HCL Tech, HDFC Bank and Ambuja Cements. The IT and tech sectors closed lower by around 2-3%, while PSU and realty sectors gained.
1) KEC International reported a 16.4% year-over-year increase in revenues for the first quarter of FY2011, however profitability declined due to the inclusion of the low-margin cable business from the merger with RPG Cables.
2) EBITDA margins declined 190 basis points to 10% and profit after tax dropped 32.6% for the quarter compared to the previous year.
3) The analyst maintains a "Buy" rating for KEC International, expecting order flows to increase from government investments in transmission projects.
Simplex Infrastructures posted lackluster 1QFY2011 results with 5.8% revenue growth and operating margins of 10.4%, below analyst expectations. The company's order backlog remains robust at Rs.12,262 crore. While the results were disappointing, the company maintains guidance of 15-20% revenue growth for FY2011. The analyst maintains a Buy rating due to Simplex's diversified order backlog and comfortable balance sheet to fund investments, but lowers the target price to Rs.573 based on a lower forward P/E multiple.
The market summary provides an overview of the performance of key indices and sectors in the market on the given date. The Nifty and Sensex opened positively but were unable to sustain gains and closed on a flat note. Top gainers during the day included Suzlon, HCLTech and JPAssociat, while top losers were HeroHonda, Gail and Kotak Bank. The IT sector saw losses while other sectors like capital goods and banking saw gains. The report also provides key support and resistance levels for indices as well as pivot levels for select stocks to watch out for in the next trading sessions.
The document provides a summary of derivative market activity in India. Key points include:
- Open interest for Nifty and Mini Nifty futures decreased by 30.7% and 30.43% respectively as the market closed at 6017.7 points.
- Nifty November futures closed at a premium of 25.9 points. PCR for Nifty increased from 1.1 to 1.2.
- Implied volatility for November series increased from 19.5% to 20%. Total open interest in the market was Rs. 1,33,827 crore.
- FIIs were net buyers of Rs. 735 crore in the cash market and formed some short positions in index and stock futures.
Cinemax India posted modest revenue growth of 34.1% in 4QFY10 aided by seat additions and big-budget movies, but operating margins declined 138bps due to higher film distribution and rent expenses. Bottom-line grew 353% due to negative tax provisions. The analyst maintains a Buy rating but lowers FY2011-12 estimates and target price to Rs85 due to lower revenue growth expectations and higher costs.
Cairn India reported a quarterly net profit of Rs281cr for 1QFY2011, an increase of 519.3% over the previous year. Revenue grew 310.1% to Rs841cr due to higher production and realisations from the Mangala oil fields. Operating margins expanded significantly to 77% from 64.5% last year due to lower production costs. However, net profit was lower than estimates due to higher financing costs and lower other income. While production and revenues grew strongly year-over-year, costs were also higher than expected, leading to profits below analyst forecasts.
Reliance Industries reported lower-than-expected earnings for 1QFY2011. While net operating income rose 86.7% year-over-year due to growth in refining revenues, EBITDA was below estimates due to lower petrochemical sales volumes and refining margins. Net profit grew 32.3% year-over-year, meeting estimates. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' rating based on the company's growth outlook and believes it is undervalued relative to its peers.
State Bank of India reported a 25.1% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, exceeding analyst estimates. Net interest income grew 45.4% year-over-year due to a rise in low-cost deposits and narrowing of net interest margin. Loan growth was 20.4% year-over-year while deposit growth was 6.8% year-over-year. Non-performing assets rose slightly during the quarter but asset quality remained reasonable with net NPA ratio of 1.7%. The analyst maintains an "Accumulate" rating on the stock.
GIPCL reported a 42.3% year-over-year increase in net profit to Rs42cr for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, despite flat revenues. The bottom line growth was driven by lower tax expenses from tax refunds received for prior years. Operating profit grew 3.3% to Rs64cr on better realizations. The company maintains a buy rating with a target price of Rs135, expecting revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of 32.5% and 28.3% through fiscal year 2012 driven by new plant capacity additions.
SpiceJet reported strong financial results for the 1st quarter of FY2011, with net sales growing 34.9% year-over-year to Rs708cr, above expectations. Operating margins expanded significantly to 8.3% due to higher passenger loads. Net profit increased 109.6% to Rs55cr, also above estimates, driven by improved operating efficiency. The analyst maintains an 'Accumulate' rating on SpiceJet, expecting sales and profits to grow rapidly in the coming years as the company expands its fleet and benefits from strong industry demand fundamentals.
Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510Angel Broking
Hindalco reported financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010. Net sales increased 45.3% over the same quarter of the previous year due to higher aluminum and copper prices. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins expanded significantly due to higher prices, though copper production declined because a smelter was shut down. Overall results were ahead of estimates due to lower interest costs and a tax benefit. The company is increasing aluminum production capacity substantially in the next few years and is well positioned to benefit from expected growth in aluminum demand and its low production costs.
Gateway Distriparks reported quarterly results that were marginally below estimates. Revenue growth was driven by a 24.2% year-over-year increase in the higher-margin Rail business. However, CFS revenues fell 9.2% due to a fire. Profits increased significantly due to tax write backs. While funds from Blackstone were slightly delayed, management expects funds in the next quarter and for Rail to break even on profits this fiscal year. Falling market share at a key container terminal remains a concern.
Hindalco reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. Revenue grew 29.2% year-over-year to Rs. 2,533 crore, driven by a 12.7% increase in aluminum shipments. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to Rs. 263 crore, resulting in adjusted EBITDA margins of 10.4%. However, net profit declined 65% to Rs. 50 crore due to higher interest and tax expenses. Management expects continued growth in demand and benefits from capacity expansions. The stock currently trades at attractive valuations and the analyst maintains a Buy rating with a target price of Rs. 204.
Nestle reported a 21% increase in revenue for the second quarter driven by 20% growth in domestic sales and 36% growth in exports. However, earnings grew at a slower 12% due to a contraction in operating margins from rising input costs and increased spending on marketing. The analyst downgraded the stock to Reduce due to concerns over margin pressure and high valuations leaving little room for negative surprises. Top-line growth was robust due to increased sales volumes and limited price increases while exports picked up on higher sales to Russia.
Blue Star reported a 25.2% year-over-year increase in net sales for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, though margins declined and profit fell. While sales grew across all segments, higher input costs and lower commission income caused operating margins to drop 281 basis points year-over-year to 9.2%. Net profit declined 10% year-over-year due to the margin pressure and a change in accounting policy. However, the company's order backlog grew nearly 15% and the outlook for large orders remains positive.
Marico reported disappointing quarterly results, with top-line growth of only 6% year-over-year and flat earnings growth, below estimates. However, a significant gross margin expansion of 644 basis points year-over-year was a positive surprise. While underlying volume growth remained strong at 14%, top-line growth was constrained by price cuts. The outlook remains neutral given concerns around value growth and slowing growth at Kaya.
GSK Consumer reported a 14.5% year-over-year increase in revenue to Rs537 crore for the second quarter of 2010, below analyst estimates. Earnings grew 30% to Rs71.8 crore, ahead of estimates, driven by margin expansion from lower advertising spending and higher other income. While the company's core brands Horlicks and Boost saw healthy volume growth of 10% and 17% respectively, overall volume growth moderated to around 10%. Looking forward, the company expects advertising spending to increase in the second half of the year with the national rollout of new product Horlicks Foodles.
Reliance Industries reported lower-than-expected quarterly results, with profits impacted by lower-than-expected refining margins. Revenue grew 120.7% year-over-year primarily due to higher refining revenues, but margins were lower than estimates. While volume growth was strong, profitability was hurt by refining margins of $7.5/bbl compared to an estimated $8.5/bbl. The analyst maintains a buy rating due to expectations for margin improvement and inorganic growth opportunities.
Godrej Consumer Products reported results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. While revenue grew strongly by 47% due to recent acquisitions, recurring earnings grew only 9% due to margin contraction, higher interest costs, and increased taxes. Domestic revenue excluding recent acquisitions declined 7% as sales of soaps fell 9% due to high bases and inventory destocking, while hair color sales grew only 4%. The company upgraded its outlook for the stock to "Buy" based on strong future earnings growth prospects.
Motherson Sumi Systems (MSSL) reported a 32% year-over-year increase in net sales to Rs. 1,905 crores for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, below expectations. Operating margins increased 370 basis points year-over-year to 9.8% but fell short of expectations and declined sequentially. Net profit for the quarter came in below expectations at Rs. 60 crores due to lower-than-expected revenue growth and margins. Management indicated input costs and currency impacts would be gradually passed on to customers, and the analyst maintains an 'Accumulate' rating while lowering the target price.
Cairn India reported a 12.5% rise in net profit for the third quarter driven by higher crude oil realizations and forex gains. Production is expected to increase with the ramp-up of new fields. While the stock has outperformed recently, the company is forecast to benefit from its low-cost assets as oil prices remain favorable. Analysts maintain a buy rating and price target of Rs. 415 based on Cairn's ability to increase production and realize higher prices in the current macroeconomic environment.
Bharat Forge reported strong results for 1QFY2011 with net sales growing 75.7% year-over-year to Rs 630.1 crore, beating estimates. Operating margins improved significantly to 25.2% due to lower raw material costs and higher utilization levels. Net profit was Rs 59.4 crore, exceeding expectations due to improved volumes and operating leverage. The analyst recommends accumulating the stock given the better-than-expected performance and revised upward estimates.
1) Anant Raj Industries reported a 203.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in net sales to Rs. 103 crore for the first quarter of FY2011, though sales were down 1.5% from the prior year. However, margins declined due to a change in accounting practices.
2) The company launched two residential projects during the quarter and has already sold all units in one project and 50% of units in the other.
3) Anant Raj maintains a strong balance sheet with a net cash position and fully paid land banks, providing flexibility for future growth.
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has announced provisional tariffs for GAIL India's key pipelines that are higher than previous estimates. For GAIL's older HBJ-GREP-DVPL pipeline, the tariff has been set at Rs. 25.46/mmbtu, a 10.6% decline from the current rate but still higher than estimates. For the DVPL/GREP expansion, the tariff has been set significantly higher at Rs. 53.65/mmbtu, an 88.4% increase over current rates. As a result, the analyst has revised earnings estimates upward and upgraded their recommendation on GAIL India stock to "Buy" with
BHEL reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, with revenues growing 16% and profits growing 42% over the same quarter last year. The bottom line growth was driven by lower raw material costs and improved operating efficiencies. While revenue growth was moderate, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew substantially due to a 350 basis point expansion in operating margins. Management has guided that order inflows for the full fiscal year will be between Rs58,000-60,000 crore and the order backlog remains robust at Rs148,000 crore as of the end of the quarter. However, competition is increasing in the power equipment market, which could limit BHEL's ability
The Indian markets are expected to open higher, tracking gains in most Asian markets. Spain has asked for a bailout of up to €100 billion for its banking system. Chinese exports grew more than expected in May. In India, shares extended gains for a fifth session despite weak global cues as major central banks held off on additional stimulus. The key support and resistance levels for the Nifty are 5,023 and 5,114 respectively. L&T has bagged orders worth Rs. 483 crore to build commercial vessels in Qatar. Vedanta Resources has acquired a 24.5% stake in Raykal Aluminium for Rs. 201 crore.
Axis Bank reported a 27.0% year-over-year increase in net profit to Rs. 942 crore for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, in line with analyst estimates. Business growth momentum slowed as advances declined 7.4% quarter-over-quarter and deposits fell 3.0% quarter-over-quarter, moderating the bank's cash-deposit ratio to 40.5% from 41.1% last quarter. However, asset quality remained healthy with slippage ratio declining to 0.8% and gross and net NPA ratios stable.
1) For 1QFY2012, Electrosteel Castings reported 16.4% sales growth but margins declined due to higher raw material costs. EBITDA fell 18.2% and net profit declined 7.2%.
2) While sales volumes grew, costs increased more due to a rise in raw material costs as a percentage of sales.
3) The company maintains a buy recommendation due to initiatives in steelmaking and backward integration that should lower costs starting in FY2013 and valuation remains attractive.
1) For 1QFY2012, Persistent Systems reported revenues of ₹224 crore, up 5.2% over the previous quarter and 23.6% over the same period last year.
2) EBITDA was ₹40 crore, up 5.3% over the previous quarter but margins declined.
3) PAT was ₹28 crore, down 16.8% over the previous quarter due to higher taxes.
4) Management maintained revenue guidance of 29% growth for FY2012 and expects PAT to remain flat despite higher tax rates.
HT Media reported a 22.7% year-over-year increase in revenue to ₹494 crore for the first quarter of FY2012. Revenue was also up 5.8% quarter-over-quarter. Advertising revenue grew 17% year-over-year, with 18% growth in English and 15% growth in Hindi. Operating profit rose 11.8% year-over-year to ₹87.8 crore due to higher other income and lower tax rates, although operating margins contracted by 174 basis points. The company maintained its Accumulate rating based on expectations of continued revenue growth and margin expansion.
The summary is:
1) The derivative report analyzes the performance of the Nifty futures, options, and key stocks from the previous trading session on July 18, 2011.
2) It provides details on changes in open interest, premium levels, volatility, and turnover for various derivatives contracts.
3) Trading strategies and technical analysis is also given for some stocks along with risk-reward profiles of sample spreads trades for the Nifty.
The market ended lower, with the Sensex and Nifty closing down 0.3%. Mid- and small-cap indices closed higher. Select heavyweights like Hindalco Industries and BHEL gained 1-3%, while TCS and Tata Motors lost 1-2%. In corporate news, Motherson Sumi Systems agreed to acquire an 80% stake in Peguform for €141.5 million. HDFC Bank, Cadila Healthcare, Crompton Greaves, and Ashok Leyland are scheduled to announce their quarterly results. The trend for the day will be decided by whether Nifty trades above or below the levels of 18,533/5,572 in early trade.
- GSM subscriber additions in India continued their declining trend in June 2011, with net additions of 9.6 million, down 10% from the previous month.
- All major operators except BSNL reported a drop in subscriber additions. Bharti and Vodafone each added 2.1 million subscribers.
- The total GSM subscriber base reached 598.8 million in June 2011, with Bharti, Vodafone, Idea and BSNL maintaining their major market shares.
The document provides a technical analysis of the Indian stock market indices Sensex and Nifty for the week of July 16, 2011. It summarizes that the indices declined over 1.5% for the week and are currently trading in a range between 18,326/5496 on the downside and 19,132/5740 on the upside. It notes that a break above or below this range would dictate the direction of the upcoming trend. The analysis also lists pivot levels for 50 Nifty stocks to watch in the coming week.
The document provides a summary of derivative market activity in India for July 18, 2011. Key points include:
- Nifty futures open interest increased 0.67% while Mini Nifty increased 3.48% as the market closed at 5581.10
- Nifty July futures closed at a premium of 5.85 points and August futures at a premium of 22.60 points
- Implied volatility of at-the-money options decreased from 18% to 17.3%
- Total open interest in the market was Rs. 135,158 crore with stock futures open interest at Rs. 34,675 crore.
The indices opened flat but traded choppily throughout the day. Metal, auto and realty stocks declined while IT stocks gained. The indices are currently trading in a range between 18,326-18,810/5496-5653 on the downside and 19,132-19,094/5740-5700 on the upside. A break above these resistance levels could lead to further gains while a break below support could result in losses extending to 17,805-17,950/5350-5400. Pivot levels for 50 Nifty stocks are provided.
- The key Indian stock indices declined slightly, with the Sensex and Nifty closing down 0.3%.
- GSM subscriber additions in India continued their declining trend in June across most major operators such as Idea, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone. Total GSM subscriber addition was 9.6 million, down 10% from the previous month.
- Tata Motors reported flat annual global sales growth in June 2011 compared to the previous year.
- South Indian Bank reported a 41.2% year-over-year increase in net profit to Rs. 82 crores for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, slightly below analyst estimates.
- Business growth remained strong, with advances growth of 31.2% and deposits growth of 35.5% year-over-year. However, net interest margins compressed by 29 basis points sequentially to 2.8% due to a sharp rise in the bank's cost of deposits.
- Non-interest income was boosted by treasury gains, but fee income growth was modest. Asset quality was stable with gross and net NPAs rising marginally, and provision coverage at a comfortable 73.1%.
Bajaj Auto reported marginally lower-than-expected results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, with net sales growth of 22.8% year-over-year driven by a 17.7% increase in volumes. However, operating margins contracted by 145 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 19.1% due to a 150 basis point increase in raw material costs. As a result, net profit grew by 20.5% year-over-year to ₹711 crore, which was slightly below analyst estimates. Going forward, the analyst expects further margin pressure and has revised downward its earnings estimates for fiscal years 2012 and 2013 to factor in higher raw material costs and changes to export incentives.
1) Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, outperforming expectations with revenue growth of 6.3% over the previous quarter and 31.4% over the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.
2) A key highlight was 7.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in business volumes. While profit margins declined due to wage hikes, net profit remained flat due to foreign exchange gains.
3) Management maintained a positive outlook, highlighting strong demand environment and deal pipeline, and expects pricing increases later in the fiscal year.
The document summarizes the Indian stock market outlook and performance on July 15, 2011. It reports that domestic indices closed with modest gains of 0.1-0.4%, while global indices declined. Wholesale price inflation in India rose to 9.44% in June 2011, above estimates and persisting above 9% for seven months, driven by increases in primary articles and fuel costs. Key benchmark levels are identified for determining if the market may continue rallying or correct in the near term.
The summary is:
1) The derivative report analyzes the movement in Nifty futures, options, and individual stocks between July 14-15, 2011.
2) Nifty futures open interest decreased while mini Nifty open interest increased as the market closed at 5599.80.
3) Implied volatility of at-the-money options increased from 17.6% to 18%.
The Sensex and Nifty indices opened lower and traded with volatility, closing marginally lower. On the sectoral front, Realty, Banks and Healthcare gained while IT and FMCG fell. The advance-decline ratio favored advancing stocks. On the daily chart, prices tested but did not close above the downward gap area of 18,679-18,589/5,601-5,580 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 18,735/5,633, while 18,449/5,541 is crucial support.
1) Infosys reported modest revenue growth of 3.2% qoq for 1QFY2012. EBITDA and margins declined due to wage hikes.
2) Guidance for 2QFY2012 revenue growth was lower than expected at 3.5-5% qoq. Annual revenue growth guidance was unchanged.
3) The analyst revised EPS estimates down and cut the target price to INR 3,200 due to macro concerns and muted guidance.
This document summarizes a derivative report from India Research dated July 13, 2011. Some key points:
- The Nifty futures open interest increased 0.51% while Minifty futures open interest rose 8.2% as the market closed at 5526.15.
- Implied volatility of at-the-money options increased from 18% to 19.75%. PCR-OI decreased from 1.20 to 1.15.
- Total open interest of the market is Rs. 125,816 crore and stock futures open interest is Rs. 33,500 crore.
- FII were net sellers of Rs. 969 crore in the cash market segment. Put-call
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
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Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
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Cairn India Event Update 25 03 10
1. Event Update | Oil & Gas
March 25, 2010
Cairn India NEUTRAL
CMP Rs298
Reserve, Production boost Target Price -
Post the comprehensive review of the Rajasthan block's resource potential, Cairn Investment Period -
India (CIL) has revised upwards the production targets, in-place reserves and
Stock Info
discovered reserves. We expect this to be value accretive for CIL. Thus, factoring in
the Rajasthan Exploratory Portfolio upsides (addition of Rs25/share to our Target Sector OIl & Gas
Price) and advancing production from the MBA block (addition of Rs20/share to Market Cap (Rs cr) 56,606
Target Price) our Fair Value for the stock stands revised upwards at Rs315/share Beta 0.9
(Rs269), translating into an upside of 5.2% from current levels. We maintain our
52 Week High / Low 310/175
Neutral view on the stock.
Avg Daily Volume 810331
Rajasthan discoverable and potential resources upgraded: CIL has augmented its
Face Value (Rs) 10
discovered resource base in the Rajasthan basin to 4.0bn boe from the earlier
BSE Sensex 17,559
estimates of 3.7bn boe. Core MBA formation estimates remains unchanged at
2.1bn boe. However, estimates of the Rajasthan small fields and other Rajasthan Nifty 5,260
fields (prominent being Barmer Hill formation) have been hiked from 1.7bn boe to Reuters Code CAIL.BO
1.9-2.0bn boe. This increase does not enhance valuations, as higher recoverable Bloomberg Code CAIR@IN
volumes have been factored in our estimates. CIL has also raised potential resource
base of the Rajasthan block to 6.5bn boe on account of the increase in gross un-risked Shareholding Pattern (%)
reserve estimate to 2.5bn boe. We believe the earlier gross un-risked reserve estimate
Promoters 62.4
would have been around 0.44bn boe. Accordingly, our implied valuation of the
net risked resource potential for the Rajasthan block at EV/boe of US $3.8/boe MF / Banks / Indian FIs 8.7
stood at Rs3.1/share. The same now stands at Rs28/share post the significant FII / NRIs / OCBs 26.4
increase in net risk potential and increase in the EV/boe multiple applied by us. Indian Public / Others 2.5
Rajasthan plateau production potential raised: According to management, CIL's
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
enhanced resource base provides a vision to up the plateau production rate to
240,000bpd (175,000bpd currently). The production rate from the Mangala fields Sensex 1.1 81.6 32.2
has been increased to 150,000bpd from 125,000bpd earlier. The raise is largely
Cairn India 6.3 57.2 139.1
on account of better-than-expected well deliverability and better reservoir quality.
Key Financials
Financials
Y/E March FY2009* FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 1,433 1,996 7,908 14,915
% chg 41.5 39.3 296.2 88.6
Profit
Net Profit 803 1,171 4,340 8,687
% chg - 45.7 270.7 100.2
OPM (%) 60.5 63.4 81.3 84.0
EPS (Rs) 4.2 6.2 22.9 45.8
P/E (x) 70.5 48.3 13.0 6.5
P/BV (x) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 Deepak Pareek
Pareek
RoE (%) 2.7 3.5 12.4 23.8 Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 340
E-mail: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
RoCE (%) 1.3 2.3 13.7 26.1
EV/Sales (x) 39.3 27.9 6.9 3.5 Vora
Amit Vora
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 322
EV/EBITDA (x) 64.9 44.0 8.4 4.2
E-mail: amit.vora@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Performance for 15 months period
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
2. Cairn India | Event Update
Rajasthan discoverable and potential resources upgraded
CIL has augmented its discovered resource base in the Rajasthan basin to 4.0bn boe
from the earlier estimates of 3.7bn boe. Core MBA formation estimates remains
unchanged at 2.1bn boe. However, estimates of the Rajasthan small fields and other
Rajasthan fields (prominent being Barmer Hill formation) have been hiked from 1.7bn
boe to 1.9-2.0bn boe. This increase does not enhance valuations, as higher recoverable
volumes have been factored in our estimates. CIL has also raised potential resource
base of the Rajasthan block to 6.5bn boe on account of the increase in gross
un-risked reserve estimate to 2.5bn boe. We believe the earlier gross un-risked reserve
estimate would have been around 0.44bn boe, an increase of 5.7x from earlier levels.
The risked recoverable reserve estimates pertaining to the same has been hiked from
35mn boe to 250mn boe. Accordingly, our implied valuation of the net risked resource
potential for the Rajasthan block at EV/boe of US $3.8/boe stood at Rs3.1/share. The
same now stands increased to Rs27.9/share post the significant increase in net risk
potential and increase in the EV/boe multiple applied by us. We now value the
exploratory upside at the Rajasthan block at 50% discount to the implied EV/boe of
the core MBA fields.
Management has however not provided any update on the gross un-risked reserve
potential of the other exploratory fields. Earlier, management had guided the net
exploratory prospective resources of 1.4bn boe, of which we believe Rajasthan block
constituted around 0.44bn boe. Post the recent update, Rajasthan alone has seen
gross un-risked resource potential increase to 2.5bn boe. Management will be providing
an update on exploratory upsides from the other fields in due course.
Exhibit 1: CIL- Recoverable Reserves Estimates
Particulars (mm boe) Previous Current Angel Estimates
MBA 685 685 685
MBA(EOR) 308 308 308
Other Rajasthan fields 80 140 172
Exploratory upside 35 250 250
Total recoverable reserves 1,108 1,383 1,415
Source: Angel Research
March 25, 2010 2
3. Cairn India | Event Update
Rajasthan plateau production potential upgraded
According to management, CIL's enhanced resource base provides a vision to up the
plateau production rate to 240,000bpd (175,000bpd currently). The increase in the
plateau would be driven by higher production from the core MBA fields, production
from EOR, Barmer Hill and newer discoveries. The production rate from the Mangala
fields has been increased to 150,000bpd from 125,000bpd earlier. The raise is largely
on account of better-than-expected well deliverability and better reservoir quality. The
production rate at the horizontal wells at Mangala filed has been good at 12,000bpd.
While management has not divulged details of the ramp-up of capacity, production
ramp-up is unlikely to be a constraint for processing capacity. Capacity of the both the
processing terminal as well as the pipeline could be enhanced by minor
de-bottlenecking with minimal capex. As per current developmental plans, the
processing capacity post commissioning of all the trains will stand at 205,000bpd.
Capacity of the processing terminal could be increased by expansion of Train- I to
50,000bpd from 30,000bpd and de-bottlenecking of other trains. Capacity of the
pipeline could easily be enhanced with commissioning of additional boosters.
Con-call Highlights
Rajasthan development update: CIL is currently producing around 20,000bpd from
Train-I of the Mangala field, while Train II and III are likely to get ready by 2QCY2010.
Completion schedule of Train IV has been left unchanged and targeted for completion
in CY2011. The entire pipeline section from MPT to Salaya (600kms) is likely to be
commissioned in 2QCY2010. This also includes the spur facility to the refineries.
Further, infrastructure to Bhogat, Gujarat coast is scheduled to get completed in 2011.
CIL has maintained its capex estimates for CY2010 and CY2011 at US $2.5bn (gross).
Offtake issues getting resolved: CIL has contracted 143,000bpd of crude sales with
MRPL, IOC, RIL (doesn't include RIL's SEZ refinery) and Essar Oil. The contracted volumes
provide the visibility for the offtake of the crude as production ramps up at the Mangala
field as the pipeline infrastructure and additional trains commence operations.
Revising upwards our estimates on higher potential production
volumes, crude oil prices
We maintain our FY2010E estimates. However, on account of upward revision in the
crude oil prices for FY2011E from US $70/bbl to US $75/bbl, our Earnings estimates
have been revised upwards by 6.7% for FY2011. From FY2012E onwards, we maintain
our long-term crude oil estimate of US $75/bbl.
On the production front, we have revised our estimates for the Mangala field from
125,000bpd to 150,000bpd for the plateau period starting FY2012E. However, as
there is no change in the recoverable reserves estimates, we have factored in
higher-than-forecast decline rate in production from the field. Similarly, from FY2013E
onwards, we have revised our production estimates for the Aishwariya field to
20,000bpd from 15,000bpd. We have also factored in higher-than-forecast decline
in the rate of production post the plateau period. Thus, on account of better well
deliverability, advancement of production from these fields is estimated. We now model
peak plateau production of 210,000bpd from 180,000bpd. This is lower than
March 25, 2010 3
4. Cairn India | Event Update
240,000bpd of sustainable volumes guided by management for the long term.
However, owing to lack of visibility, we have not factored the same in our estimates.
Due to upgrade in production volumes, our FY2012E EPS stands increased by 8.5%
CIL has filed declaration of commerciality for the Barmer Hill formation. The field
development plan (FDP) of the same is likely to be filed later, in stages. We would
factor the same in our forecast once the FDP gets filed.
Thus, factoring in the Rajasthan Exploratory Portfolio upsides (addition of
Rs25/share to our Target Price) and advancing production from the MBA block (addition
of Rs20/share to Target Price) our Fair Value for the stock stands revised upwards at
Rs315/share (Rs269), translating into an upside of 5.2% from current levels. Hence,
we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Exhibit 2: Valuation Summary
Particulars (Rs cr) FY2011E FY2012E
Rajasthan Block
RJ-ON-90/1 (MBA block) 36,546 38,740
Value per share 193 204
RJ-ON-90/1 (MBA EOR) 5,372 6,017
Value per share 28 32
RJ-ON-90/1 (Barmer Hill) 2,541 2,713
Value per share 13 14
RJ-ON-90/1 (Southern fields) 508 543
Value per share 3 3
RJ-ON-90/1 (Other fields) 4,223 4,509
Value per share 22 24
Value of Rajasthan Block 49,191 52,522
Value per share 259 277
CB-OS-2 590 413
Value per share 3 2
Ravva 1,860 1,653
Value per share 10 9
Upside potential (KG-DWN-98/2) 302 331
Value per share 2 2
Exploratory porfolio upsides 6,178 6,769
Value per share 33 36
Total Asset Value 58,120 61,687
Less: Corporate expenditure 2,333 2,243
Value per share 12 12
Less: Net debt (92) (232)
Value per share (0) (1)
Equity value 55,879 59,676
Equity shares (mn) 190 190
Equity value per share (Rs) 295 315
Source: Company, Angel Research
March 25, 2010 4
11. Cairn India | Event Update
Cairn India
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Note: Please refer important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on Angel web-site (Research Section).
Disclosure of Interest Statement Cairn India
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 5 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
March 25, 2010 11
12. Cairn India
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Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
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