SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Event Update | Oil & Gas
                                                                                                                      March 25, 2010



 Cairn India                                                                               NEUTRAL
                                                                                           CMP                                   Rs298
 Reserve, Production boost                                                                 Target Price                              -
 Post the comprehensive review of the Rajasthan block's resource potential, Cairn          Investment Period                           -
 India (CIL) has revised upwards the production targets, in-place reserves and
                                                                                           Stock Info
 discovered reserves. We expect this to be value accretive for CIL. Thus, factoring in
 the Rajasthan Exploratory Portfolio upsides (addition of Rs25/share to our Target         Sector                            OIl & Gas
 Price) and advancing production from the MBA block (addition of Rs20/share to             Market Cap (Rs cr)                     56,606
 Target Price) our Fair Value for the stock stands revised upwards at Rs315/share          Beta                                      0.9
 (Rs269), translating into an upside of 5.2% from current levels. We maintain our
                                                                                           52 Week High / Low                    310/175
 Neutral view on the stock.
                                                                                           Avg Daily Volume                      810331
 Rajasthan discoverable and potential resources upgraded: CIL has augmented its
                                                                                           Face Value (Rs)                           10
 discovered resource base in the Rajasthan basin to 4.0bn boe from the earlier
                                                                                           BSE Sensex                             17,559
 estimates of 3.7bn boe. Core MBA formation estimates remains unchanged at
 2.1bn boe. However, estimates of the Rajasthan small fields and other Rajasthan           Nifty                                   5,260
 fields (prominent being Barmer Hill formation) have been hiked from 1.7bn boe to          Reuters Code                          CAIL.BO
 1.9-2.0bn boe. This increase does not enhance valuations, as higher recoverable           Bloomberg Code                    CAIR@IN
 volumes have been factored in our estimates. CIL has also raised potential resource
 base of the Rajasthan block to 6.5bn boe on account of the increase in gross un-risked    Shareholding Pattern (%)
 reserve estimate to 2.5bn boe. We believe the earlier gross un-risked reserve estimate
                                                                                           Promoters                                62.4
 would have been around 0.44bn boe. Accordingly, our implied valuation of the
 net risked resource potential for the Rajasthan block at EV/boe of US $3.8/boe            MF / Banks / Indian FIs                   8.7

 stood at Rs3.1/share. The same now stands at Rs28/share post the significant              FII / NRIs / OCBs                        26.4
 increase in net risk potential and increase in the EV/boe multiple applied by us.         Indian Public / Others                    2.5

 Rajasthan plateau production potential raised: According to management, CIL's
                                                                                           Abs. (%)             3m         1yr       3yr
 enhanced resource base provides a vision to up the plateau production rate to
 240,000bpd (175,000bpd currently). The production rate from the Mangala fields            Sensex               1.1       81.6      32.2
 has been increased to 150,000bpd from 125,000bpd earlier. The raise is largely
                                                                                           Cairn India          6.3       57.2     139.1
 on account of better-than-expected well deliverability and better reservoir quality.

 Key Financials
     Financials
 Y/E March                     FY2009*         FY2010E            FY2011E   FY2012E
 Net Sales                        1,433            1,996            7,908     14,915
 % chg                              41.5            39.3            296.2        88.6
     Profit
 Net Profit                         803            1,171            4,340      8,687
 % chg                                  -           45.7            270.7      100.2
 OPM (%)                           60.5             63.4             81.3       84.0
 EPS (Rs)                            4.2             6.2             22.9       45.8
 P/E (x)                           70.5             48.3             13.0         6.5
 P/BV (x)                            1.7             1.7              1.6         1.5     Deepak Pareek
                                                                                                 Pareek
 RoE (%)                             2.7             3.5             12.4        23.8     Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 340
                                                                                          E-mail: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
 RoCE (%)                            1.3             2.3             13.7       26.1
 EV/Sales (x)                      39.3             27.9              6.9         3.5          Vora
                                                                                          Amit Vora
                                                                                          Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 322
 EV/EBITDA (x)                     64.9             44.0              8.4         4.2
                                                                                          E-mail: amit.vora@angeltrade.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Performance for 15 months period



Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Cairn India | Event Update




                 Rajasthan discoverable and potential resources upgraded

                 CIL has augmented its discovered resource base in the Rajasthan basin to 4.0bn boe
                 from the earlier estimates of 3.7bn boe. Core MBA formation estimates remains
                 unchanged at 2.1bn boe. However, estimates of the Rajasthan small fields and other
                 Rajasthan fields (prominent being Barmer Hill formation) have been hiked from 1.7bn
                 boe to 1.9-2.0bn boe. This increase does not enhance valuations, as higher recoverable
                 volumes have been factored in our estimates. CIL has also raised potential resource
                 base of the Rajasthan block to 6.5bn boe on account of the increase in gross
                 un-risked reserve estimate to 2.5bn boe. We believe the earlier gross un-risked reserve
                 estimate would have been around 0.44bn boe, an increase of 5.7x from earlier levels.
                 The risked recoverable reserve estimates pertaining to the same has been hiked from
                 35mn boe to 250mn boe. Accordingly, our implied valuation of the net risked resource
                 potential for the Rajasthan block at EV/boe of US $3.8/boe stood at Rs3.1/share. The
                 same now stands increased to Rs27.9/share post the significant increase in net risk
                 potential and increase in the EV/boe multiple applied by us. We now value the
                 exploratory upside at the Rajasthan block at 50% discount to the implied EV/boe of
                 the core MBA fields.

                 Management has however not provided any update on the gross un-risked reserve
                 potential of the other exploratory fields. Earlier, management had guided the net
                 exploratory prospective resources of 1.4bn boe, of which we believe Rajasthan block
                 constituted around 0.44bn boe. Post the recent update, Rajasthan alone has seen
                 gross un-risked resource potential increase to 2.5bn boe. Management will be providing
                 an update on exploratory upsides from the other fields in due course.

                 Exhibit 1: CIL- Recoverable Reserves Estimates
                  Particulars (mm boe)          Previous      Current                 Angel Estimates
                  MBA                               685           685                             685
                  MBA(EOR)                          308           308                             308
                  Other Rajasthan fields              80          140                             172
                  Exploratory upside                  35          250                             250
                  Total recoverable reserves      1,108         1,383                           1,415
                 Source: Angel Research




March 25, 2010                                                                                          2
Cairn India | Event Update




                 Rajasthan plateau production potential upgraded

                 According to management, CIL's enhanced resource base provides a vision to up the
                 plateau production rate to 240,000bpd (175,000bpd currently). The increase in the
                 plateau would be driven by higher production from the core MBA fields, production
                 from EOR, Barmer Hill and newer discoveries. The production rate from the Mangala
                 fields has been increased to 150,000bpd from 125,000bpd earlier. The raise is largely
                 on account of better-than-expected well deliverability and better reservoir quality. The
                 production rate at the horizontal wells at Mangala filed has been good at 12,000bpd.
                 While management has not divulged details of the ramp-up of capacity, production
                 ramp-up is unlikely to be a constraint for processing capacity. Capacity of the both the
                 processing terminal as well as the pipeline could be enhanced by minor
                 de-bottlenecking with minimal capex. As per current developmental plans, the
                 processing capacity post commissioning of all the trains will stand at 205,000bpd.
                 Capacity of the processing terminal could be increased by expansion of Train- I to
                 50,000bpd from 30,000bpd and de-bottlenecking of other trains. Capacity of the
                 pipeline could easily be enhanced with commissioning of additional boosters.

                 Con-call Highlights

                 Rajasthan development update: CIL is currently producing around 20,000bpd from
                 Train-I of the Mangala field, while Train II and III are likely to get ready by 2QCY2010.
                 Completion schedule of Train IV has been left unchanged and targeted for completion
                 in CY2011. The entire pipeline section from MPT to Salaya (600kms) is likely to be
                 commissioned in 2QCY2010. This also includes the spur facility to the refineries.
                 Further, infrastructure to Bhogat, Gujarat coast is scheduled to get completed in 2011.
                 CIL has maintained its capex estimates for CY2010 and CY2011 at US $2.5bn (gross).

                 Offtake issues getting resolved: CIL has contracted 143,000bpd of crude sales with
                 MRPL, IOC, RIL (doesn't include RIL's SEZ refinery) and Essar Oil. The contracted volumes
                 provide the visibility for the offtake of the crude as production ramps up at the Mangala
                 field as the pipeline infrastructure and additional trains commence operations.

                 Revising upwards our estimates on higher potential production
                 volumes, crude oil prices

                 We maintain our FY2010E estimates. However, on account of upward revision in the
                 crude oil prices for FY2011E from US $70/bbl to US $75/bbl, our Earnings estimates
                 have been revised upwards by 6.7% for FY2011. From FY2012E onwards, we maintain
                 our long-term crude oil estimate of US $75/bbl.

                 On the production front, we have revised our estimates for the Mangala field from
                 125,000bpd to 150,000bpd for the plateau period starting FY2012E. However, as
                 there is no change in the recoverable reserves estimates, we have factored in
                 higher-than-forecast decline rate in production from the field. Similarly, from FY2013E
                 onwards, we have revised our production estimates for the Aishwariya field to
                 20,000bpd from 15,000bpd. We have also factored in higher-than-forecast decline
                 in the rate of production post the plateau period. Thus, on account of better well
                 deliverability, advancement of production from these fields is estimated. We now model
                 peak plateau production of 210,000bpd from 180,000bpd. This is lower than

March 25, 2010                                                                                          3
Cairn India | Event Update




                 240,000bpd of sustainable volumes guided by management for the long term.
                 However, owing to lack of visibility, we have not factored the same in our estimates.
                 Due to upgrade in production volumes, our FY2012E EPS stands increased by 8.5%

                 CIL has filed declaration of commerciality for the Barmer Hill formation. The field
                 development plan (FDP) of the same is likely to be filed later, in stages. We would
                 factor the same in our forecast once the FDP gets filed.

                 Thus, factoring in the Rajasthan Exploratory Portfolio upsides (addition of
                 Rs25/share to our Target Price) and advancing production from the MBA block (addition
                 of Rs20/share to Target Price) our Fair Value for the stock stands revised upwards at
                 Rs315/share (Rs269), translating into an upside of 5.2% from current levels. Hence,
                 we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

                 Exhibit 2: Valuation Summary
                  Particulars (Rs cr)                                       FY2011E        FY2012E
                  Rajasthan Block
                  RJ-ON-90/1 (MBA block)                                     36,546         38,740
                  Value per share                                              193              204
                  RJ-ON-90/1 (MBA EOR)                                        5,372           6,017
                  Value per share                                               28               32
                  RJ-ON-90/1 (Barmer Hill)                                    2,541           2,713
                  Value per share                                               13               14
                  RJ-ON-90/1 (Southern fields)                                 508              543
                  Value per share                                                3                3
                  RJ-ON-90/1 (Other fields)                                   4,223           4,509
                  Value per share                                               22               24
                  Value of Rajasthan Block                                   49,191         52,522
                  Value per share                                              259              277
                  CB-OS-2                                                      590              413
                  Value per share                                                3                2
                  Ravva                                                       1,860           1,653
                  Value per share                                               10                9
                  Upside potential (KG-DWN-98/2)                               302              331
                  Value per share                                                2                2
                  Exploratory porfolio upsides                                6,178           6,769
                  Value per share                                               33               36
                  Total Asset Value                                          58,120         61,687
                  Less: Corporate expenditure                                 2,333           2,243
                  Value per share                                               12               12
                  Less: Net debt                                               (92)           (232)
                  Value per share                                               (0)              (1)
                  Equity value                                               55,879         59,676
                  Equity shares (mn)                                           190              190
                  Equity value per share (Rs)                                  295             315
                 Source: Company, Angel Research




March 25, 2010                                                                                         4
Cairn India | Event Update




                 Exhibit 3: Sensitivity with Crude and Exchange Rate
                                                                Prices
                                                          Crude Prices (US$/bbl)
                                           60.0    65.0   70.0      75.0      80.0   85.0   90.0
                                    42.0   240     263    282       298        314   335    357
                                   43.0    246     270    289       306        322   344    359




                   Exchange Rate
                                   44.0    252     277    290       307        330   353    368




                      (Rs/US$)
                                   45.0    259     283    297       315        338   361    377
                                   46.0    265     290    304       322        346   363    386
                                   47.0    271     293    312       330        354   372    396
                                   48.0    277     299    312       338        363   380    405
                 Source: Company, Angel Research


                 Exhibit 4: Sensitivity with Crude and WACC
                                                                Prices
                                                          Crude Prices (US$/bbl)
                                           60.0    65.0   70.0      75.0      80.0   85.0   90.0
                                   9.0     285     313    327       347        372   398    416
                                   10.0     276    302    317       335        360   385    402
                   WACC (%)




                                   11.0     267    292    307       325        349   373    389
                                   12.0     259    283    297       315        338   361    377
                                   13.0     251    275    289       305        328   351    366
                                   14.0     244    267    280       297        319   341    356
                                   15.0     237    260    273       289        310   332    346
                 Source: Company, Angel Research


                 Exhibit 5: Sensitivity with Crude and Discount on Crude
                                                                Prices
                                                          Crude Prices (US$/bbl)
                                           60.0    65.0   70.0      75.0      80.0   85.0   90.0
                                   7.0      282    302    322       347        366   391    407
                                   9.0      279    295    314       339        357   382    406
                   Discount (%)




                                   11.0     272    294    306       331        355   373    397
                                   13.0     265    287    305       323        347   364    387
                                   15.0     259    283    297       315        338   361    377
                                   17.0     252    276    295       313        329   352    368
                 Source: Company, Angel Research




March 25, 2010                                                                                     5
Cairn India | Event Update




Exhibit 6: Relative performance with peers                                                                                                                                                                                            Exhibit 7: Relative performance with Sensex and Oil & Gas Index
        300                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 450
        250                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            350
        200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 300
(Rs)




        150                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 250




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            200
        100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            150
         50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             50
             0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -
                                   May-07




                                                                                              May-08




                                                                                                                                                                 May-09
                 Jan-07
                          Mar-07


                                            Jul-07
                                                      Sep-07

                                                                   Nov-07
                                                                            Jan-08
                                                                                     Mar-08


                                                                                                       Jul-08

                                                                                                                     Sep-08
                                                                                                                                 Nov-08
                                                                                                                                            Jan-09
                                                                                                                                                     Mar-09


                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-09
                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        May-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 May-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-10
                                                                                     Cairn                       ONGC                                     RIL                                                                                                                                                  CIL                           SENSEX                         BSE OIL & GAS
Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Company, Angel Research


Exhibit 8: Out-performance relative to Sensex                                                                                                                                                                                         Exhibit 9: Out-performance relative to BSE Oil & Gas Index
         60                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 50

         50

         40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20
         30
  (%)




         20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (%)




         10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (10)
         -

        (10)

        (20)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (40)
                                                                                                                                                                                            Sept-09
                                        May-07




                                                                                                  May-08




                                                                                                                                                                    May-09
                                                                      Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-09
                              Mar-07




                                                                                         Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                        Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar-10
                                                          Sep-07




                                                                                                                        Sep-08
                                                                                                           July-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       May-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-10
                    Jan-07




                                                                               Jan-08




                                                                                                                                               Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-10
                                                                                                                                    Nov08
                                                 Jul-07




                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-09




                                                                                                  SENSEX                                     CIL                                                                                                                                                                                   BSE OIL & GAS                             CIL

Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Company, Angel Research




March 25, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        6
Cairn India | Event Update




                 Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                             Rs crore
                 Y/E March                              CY2007       FY2009*   FY2010E    FY2011E   FY2012E
                 Gross sales                                1,012      1,433     1,996      7,908    14,915
                 Less: Excise duty                               -         -          -         -         -
                 Net Sales                                  1,012      1,433     1,996      7,908    14,915
                 Other operating income                          -         -          -         -         -
                 Total operating income                     1,012      1,433     1,996      7,908    14,915
                 % chg                                                  41.5       39.3     296.2      88.6
                 Total Expenditure                           572        566        731      1,477     2,383
                 Operating expenditure                       195        213        400      1,145     2,052
                 Administrative expenditure                  388        331        331       331       331
                 Inc/dec in stock                            (11)        22           -         -         -
                 EBITDA
                 EBITDA                                      440        866      1,264      6,431    12,532
                 % chg                                                  96.7       46.0     408.6      94.9
                 (% of Net Sales)                            43.5       60.5       63.4      81.3      84.0
                 Depreciation& Amortisation                  445        438        401       961      1,689
                 EBIT                                          (5)      428        863      5,471    10,843
                 % chg                                           -         -      101.6     533.9      98.2
                 (% of Net Sales)                            (0.5)      29.9       43.2      69.2      72.7
                 Interest & other Charges                       2         6         76       305       305
                 Other Income                                132        594        550       208       253
                 (% of PBT)                                 105.2       58.5       41.1       3.9       2.3
                 Share in profit of Associates                   -         -          -         -         -
                 Recurring PBT                               126       1,016     1,337      5,374    10,791
                 % chg                                           -     707.0       31.5     302.0     100.8
                 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)                    -      28.3          -         -         -
                 PBT (reported)                              126        988      1,337      5,374    10,791
                 Tax                                         150        184        166      1,034     2,105
                 (% of PBT)                                 119.5       18.7       12.4      19.2      19.5
                 PAT (reported)                              (25)       803      1,171      4,340     8,687
                 Add: Share of earnings of associate             -         -          -         -         -
                 Less: Minority interest (MI)                    -         -          -         -         -
                 Prior period items                              -         -          -         -         -
                 PAT after MI (reported)                     (25)       803      1,171      4,340     8,687
                 ADJ. PAT
                 ADJ. PA                                     (25)       832      1,171      4,340     8,687
                 % chg                                           -         -       40.8     270.7     100.2
                 (% of Net Sales)                            (2.4)      58.1       58.7      54.9      58.2
                 Basic EPS (Rs)                              (0.1)       4.2        6.2      22.9      45.8
                 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)                      (0.1)       4.2        6.2      22.9      45.8
                 % chg                                           -         -       45.7     270.7     100.2
                  Note: *Performance for 15 months period




March 25, 2010                                                                                                7
Cairn India | Event Update




                 Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                                       Rs crore
                 Y/E March                              CY2007       FY2009*   FY2010E    FY2011E   FY2012E

                 SOURCES OF FUNDS

                 Equity Share Capital                        1,873     1,936      1,936     1,936     1,936

                 Preference Capital                              -         -          -         -         -

                 Reserves& Surplus                          27,563    30,867     32,038    33,839    35,411

                              Funds
                 Shareholders Funds                         29,436    32,802    33,973     35,774    37,347

                 Minority Interest                               -         -          -         -         -

                 Total Loans                                  312      4,356      4,356     4,356     4,356

                 Deferred Tax Liability                       492       554        560       585       632

                 Total Liabilities                          30,240    37,713    38,890     40,716    42,335

                 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                 APPLICATION

                 Gross Block                                  548      1,445      7,496     9,698    11,178

                 Less: Acc. Depreciation                       61        80        118       246       375

                 Net Block                                    488      1,365      7,378     9,453    10,803

                 Capital Work-in-Progress                    2,467     5,203      1,829     1,927     1,927

                 Goodwill                                   25,319    25,319     25,319    25,319    25,319

                 Investments                                  713       171        171       171       171

                 Current Assets                              2,088     7,268      5,524     6,847     9,167

                    Cash                                     1,332     6,527      4,700     5,273     6,673

                    Loans & Advances                          487       351        351       351       351

                    Other                                     270       390        474      1,223     2,144

                 Current liabilities                          835      1,613      1,332     3,001     5,053

                 Net Current Assets                          1,253     5,655      4,192     3,846     4,114

                 Mis. Exp. not written off                       -         -          -         -         -

                 Total Assets                               30,240    37,713    38,890     40,716    42,335

                  Note: *Performance for 15 months period




March 25, 2010                                                                                                8
Cairn India | Event Update




                 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)                                                     Rs crore
                 Y/E March                              CY2007        FY2009*    FY2010E     FY2011E    FY2012E

                 Profit before tax                             126        988       1,337      5,374     10,791

                 Depreciation                                  459        463         206        746      1,504

                 Change in Working Capital                     (91)       121       (364)        919      1,131

                 Less: Other income                            (73)      (214)      (550)       (208)     (253)

                 Direct taxes paid                             (82)      (146)      (160)     (1,009)    (2,058)

                 Others                                        209       (249)           -          -          -

                 Cash Flow from Operations                     548        963         469      5,822     11,115

                 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets               (4,450)    (3,161)     (2,846)    (2,918)    (2,855)

                 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments                (2,110)    (2,506)           -          -          -

                 Other income                                  130        152         550        208        253

                 Cash Flow from Investing                   (6,430)    (5,516)    (2,296)     (2,710)    (2,602)

                 Issue of Equity                                67      2,532            -          -          -

                 Inc./(Dec.) in loans                        (169)      3,767            -          -          -

                 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)                        -          -           -    (2,539)    (7,114)

                                Financing
                 Cash Flow from Financing                    (102)      6,299            -    (2,539)    (7,114)

                 Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                        (5,984)     1,746      (1,827)       573      1,399

                 Opening Cash balances                       6,135        150       1,897         70        643

                 Closing Cash balances                         150      1,897          70        643      2,042

                  Note: *Performance for 15 months period




March 25, 2010                                                                                                     9
Cairn India | Event Update




                 Key Ratios
                 Y/E March                                CY2007      FY2009*    FY2010E     FY2011E    FY2012E

                 Valuation Ratio (x)
                 P/E (on FDEPS)                                          70.5        48.3       13.0        6.5
                 P/CEPS                                      334.0       52.7        41.1       11.1        5.6

                 P/BV                                          1.9        1.7         1.7        1.6        1.5
                 Dividend yield (%)                            0.0        0.0         0.0        3.8       10.7
                 EV/Sales                                     53.8       39.3        27.9        6.9        3.5

                 EV/EBITDA                                   123.6       64.9        44.0        8.4        4.2
                 EV/Total Assets                               1.8        1.5         1.4        1.3        1.2

                 Per Share Data (Rs)
                 EPS (Basic)                                  (0.1)       4.2         6.2       22.9       45.8
                 EPS (fully diluted)                          (0.1)       4.2         6.2       22.9       45.8
                 Cash EPS                                      0.9        5.7         7.3       26.8       53.7

                 DPS                                              -          -           -      11.4       32.1
                 Book Value                                  155.2      172.9       179.1      188.6      196.9

                 Dupont Analysis (%)
                 EBIT margin                                  (0.5)      29.9        43.2       69.2       72.7
                 Tax retention ratio                           8.5       82.4        87.6       80.8       80.5
                 Asset turnover (x)                            0.0        0.0         0.1        0.2        0.4

                 ROIC (Post-tax)                              (0.0)       1.2         2.3       12.7       24.6
                 Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                          -          -           -          -          -
                 Leverage (x)                                     -          -           -          -          -

                 Operating ROE                                (0.0)       1.2         2.3       12.7       24.6

                 Returns (%)
                 ROCE (Pre-tax)                               (0.0)       1.3         2.3       13.7       26.1

                 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                          0.5       48.0        22.4       71.8      130.5
                 ROE                                          (0.1)       2.7         3.5       12.4       23.8

                 Turnover ratios (x)
                 Asset Turnover (Gross Block)                  2.1        1.4         0.4        0.9        1.4
                 Inventory / Sales (days)                     44.5       36.9        34.8       18.9       20.8
                 Receivables (days)                           58.9       36.5        31.4       17.0       18.7

                 Payables (days)                          1,322.2       531.2       518.6      428.4      550.5
                 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)     (620.2)    (121.1)     (126.2)     (44.7)     (48.8)

                 Solvency ratios (x)
                 Net debt to equity                           (0.1)      (0.0)       (0.0)      (0.1)      (0.1)
                 Net debt to EBITDA                           (4.9)      (0.4)       (0.7)      (0.4)      (0.3)
                 Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest)            (3.0)      66.8        11.3       17.9       35.6
                  Note: *Performance for 15 months period




March 25, 2010                                                                                                10
Cairn India | Event Update
                                                                                                                                Cairn India




Disclaimer
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.

Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable
basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change
without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the
recommendations expressed herein.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true and are for general guidance only. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information
contained, the company takes no guarantee and assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the information. No one can use the
information as the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action.

Recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Each recipient of this document
should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a
guide for future performance. Certain transactions - futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities -
involve substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's
price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on
a company's fundamentals.

We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views expressed in this document. While we would endeavor to update the
information herein on a reasonable basis, Angel Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees are
under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may
prevent Angel Securities and affiliates from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements
are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Angel Securities Limited and affiliates, including the analyst who has
issued this report, may, on the date of this report, and from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities of the
companies mentioned herein or engage in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or compensation or act as
advisor or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to company/ies mentioned herein or inconsistent with any recommendation
and related information and opinions.

Angel Securities Limited and affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other
advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Note: Please refer important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on Angel web-site (Research Section).




  Disclosure of Interest Statement                                          Cairn India
  1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                             No
  2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                       No
  3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock            No
  4. Broking relationship with company covered                                  No

  Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 5 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.




  Ratings (Returns) :                Buy (> 15%)                            Accumulate (5% to 15%)                       Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                     Reduce (-5% to -15%)                   Sell (< -15%)



March 25, 2010                                                                                                                                 11
Cairn India




               Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                        Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra                                                                               VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                                                            sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal                                                                                    VP-Research, Banking                                                                   vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo                                                                                     Automobile                                                                             vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani                                                                                    Infrastructure, Real Estate                                                            shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah                                                                                         FMCG , Media                                                                           anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek                                                                                      Oil & Gas                                                                              deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha                                                                                      Capital Goods, Engineering                                                             puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia                                                                                     Pharmaceutical                                                                         sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe                                                                                      Cement, Power                                                                          rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai                                                                                        Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping                                                       paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya                                                                                     Fertiliser, Mid-cap                                                                    sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni                                                                                     Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap                                                                virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain                                                                                        Metals & Mining                                                                        pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane                                                                                          Banking                                                                                amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Rahul Jain                                                                                         IT                                                                                     rahul.j@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda                                                                                         Mid-cap                                                                                jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney                                                                                    Mid-cap                                                                                sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com

Amit Vora                                                                                          Research Associate (Oil & Gas)                                                         amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan                                                                                       Research Associate (Cement, Power)                                                     v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate                                                                                     Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)                                                aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Shreya Gaunekar                                                                                    Research Associate (Automobile)                                                        shreyap.gaunekar@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot                                                                                        Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping)                                               mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur                                                                                   Research Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                       chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi                                                                                        Research Associate (IT, Telecom)                                                       vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain                                                                                         Research Associate (Metals & Mining)                                                   pooja.j@angeltrade.com

Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni                                                                                   Sr. Technical Analyst                                                                  shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo                                                                                     Technical Analyst                                                                      vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre                                                                                    Head - Derivatives                                                                     siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal                                                                                       Jr. Derivative Analyst                                                                 jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com


Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi                                                                                     VP - Institutional Sales                                                               mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat                                                                                    AVP - Institutional Sales                                                              abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan                                                                                       Sr. Manager                                                                            niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi                                                                                        Sr. Manager                                                                            pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir                                                                                     Sr. Manager                                                                            sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
Ganesh Iyer                                                                                        Sr. Manager                                                                            ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com
Jay Harsora                                                                                        Sr. Dealer                                                                             jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan                                                                                   Dealer                                                                                 meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani                                                                                     Dealer                                                                                 gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com


Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty                                                                                    Research Editor                                                                        bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Dharmil Adhyaru                                                                                    Assistant Research Editor                                                              dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil                                                                                       Production                                                                             bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel                                                                                        Production                                                                             dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com




Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

More Related Content

What's hot

OBC
OBCOBC
Areva t&d ru1 qcy2010-260410
Areva t&d ru1 qcy2010-260410Areva t&d ru1 qcy2010-260410
Areva t&d ru1 qcy2010-260410
Angel Broking
 
Investment Idea - BPCL : Recommended as "Sell"
Investment Idea  - BPCL : Recommended as "Sell"Investment Idea  - BPCL : Recommended as "Sell"
Investment Idea - BPCL : Recommended as "Sell"
Fullerton Securities
 
Ispat Industries Management Meet Note-080910
Ispat Industries  Management Meet Note-080910Ispat Industries  Management Meet Note-080910
Ispat Industries Management Meet Note-080910
Angel Broking
 
Axis Bank
Axis BankAxis Bank
Axis Bank
Angel Broking
 
GCPL event update - 120510
GCPL event update - 120510GCPL event update - 120510
GCPL event update - 120510
Angel Broking
 
Investment Idea: Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd - BUY
Investment Idea: Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd - BUYInvestment Idea: Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd - BUY
Investment Idea: Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd - BUY
Fullerton Securities
 
Indian Bank
Indian BankIndian Bank
Indian Bank
Angel Broking
 
Trainingportal #hms2013 aibel - ansetter 2000 personer på kort tid - hvorda...
Trainingportal #hms2013   aibel - ansetter 2000 personer på kort tid - hvorda...Trainingportal #hms2013   aibel - ansetter 2000 personer på kort tid - hvorda...
Trainingportal #hms2013 aibel - ansetter 2000 personer på kort tid - hvorda...
Mintra Trainingportal - Training for the Oil and Gas Industry
 
PVR-Management Meet Note
PVR-Management Meet NotePVR-Management Meet Note
PVR-Management Meet Note
Angel Broking
 
Cairn India
Cairn India  Cairn India
Cairn India
Angel Broking
 
monsanto _hugh_grant_presentation
monsanto _hugh_grant_presentationmonsanto _hugh_grant_presentation
monsanto _hugh_grant_presentation
finance28
 
Union Bank of India
Union Bank of India Union Bank of India
Union Bank of India
Angel Broking
 
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
JBS RI
 
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
JBS RI
 
CLIFFS DEC 2010 Investor Slide Deck
CLIFFS DEC 2010 Investor Slide DeckCLIFFS DEC 2010 Investor Slide Deck
CLIFFS DEC 2010 Investor Slide Deck
Clear Perspective Group
 
IRB
IRBIRB
monsanto 02_10_09
monsanto 02_10_09monsanto 02_10_09
monsanto 02_10_09
finance28
 
Punj Lloyd
Punj LloydPunj Lloyd
Punj Lloyd
Angel Broking
 
Easy gold presentation
Easy gold presentationEasy gold presentation
Easy gold presentation
Amit Kumar
 

What's hot (20)

OBC
OBCOBC
OBC
 
Areva t&d ru1 qcy2010-260410
Areva t&d ru1 qcy2010-260410Areva t&d ru1 qcy2010-260410
Areva t&d ru1 qcy2010-260410
 
Investment Idea - BPCL : Recommended as "Sell"
Investment Idea  - BPCL : Recommended as "Sell"Investment Idea  - BPCL : Recommended as "Sell"
Investment Idea - BPCL : Recommended as "Sell"
 
Ispat Industries Management Meet Note-080910
Ispat Industries  Management Meet Note-080910Ispat Industries  Management Meet Note-080910
Ispat Industries Management Meet Note-080910
 
Axis Bank
Axis BankAxis Bank
Axis Bank
 
GCPL event update - 120510
GCPL event update - 120510GCPL event update - 120510
GCPL event update - 120510
 
Investment Idea: Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd - BUY
Investment Idea: Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd - BUYInvestment Idea: Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd - BUY
Investment Idea: Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd - BUY
 
Indian Bank
Indian BankIndian Bank
Indian Bank
 
Trainingportal #hms2013 aibel - ansetter 2000 personer på kort tid - hvorda...
Trainingportal #hms2013   aibel - ansetter 2000 personer på kort tid - hvorda...Trainingportal #hms2013   aibel - ansetter 2000 personer på kort tid - hvorda...
Trainingportal #hms2013 aibel - ansetter 2000 personer på kort tid - hvorda...
 
PVR-Management Meet Note
PVR-Management Meet NotePVR-Management Meet Note
PVR-Management Meet Note
 
Cairn India
Cairn India  Cairn India
Cairn India
 
monsanto _hugh_grant_presentation
monsanto _hugh_grant_presentationmonsanto _hugh_grant_presentation
monsanto _hugh_grant_presentation
 
Union Bank of India
Union Bank of India Union Bank of India
Union Bank of India
 
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
 
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
Jbs presentation 1_q10 v1
 
CLIFFS DEC 2010 Investor Slide Deck
CLIFFS DEC 2010 Investor Slide DeckCLIFFS DEC 2010 Investor Slide Deck
CLIFFS DEC 2010 Investor Slide Deck
 
IRB
IRBIRB
IRB
 
monsanto 02_10_09
monsanto 02_10_09monsanto 02_10_09
monsanto 02_10_09
 
Punj Lloyd
Punj LloydPunj Lloyd
Punj Lloyd
 
Easy gold presentation
Easy gold presentationEasy gold presentation
Easy gold presentation
 

Viewers also liked

NCC
NCCNCC
Market Outlook- July 14,2010
Market Outlook- July 14,2010Market Outlook- July 14,2010
Market Outlook- July 14,2010
Angel Broking
 
Tech Report 31 Mar
Tech Report 31 MarTech Report 31 Mar
Tech Report 31 Mar
Angel Broking
 
Kec International
Kec International Kec International
Kec International
Angel Broking
 
Simplex Infra
Simplex InfraSimplex Infra
Simplex Infra
Angel Broking
 
Technical Report - September 3, 2010
Technical Report - September 3, 2010Technical Report - September 3, 2010
Technical Report - September 3, 2010
Angel Broking
 
Derivatives report 01 nov-2010
Derivatives report 01 nov-2010Derivatives report 01 nov-2010
Derivatives report 01 nov-2010
Angel Broking
 
Cinemax ru4 qfy2010-270510
Cinemax ru4 qfy2010-270510Cinemax ru4 qfy2010-270510
Cinemax ru4 qfy2010-270510
Angel Broking
 

Viewers also liked (8)

NCC
NCCNCC
NCC
 
Market Outlook- July 14,2010
Market Outlook- July 14,2010Market Outlook- July 14,2010
Market Outlook- July 14,2010
 
Tech Report 31 Mar
Tech Report 31 MarTech Report 31 Mar
Tech Report 31 Mar
 
Kec International
Kec International Kec International
Kec International
 
Simplex Infra
Simplex InfraSimplex Infra
Simplex Infra
 
Technical Report - September 3, 2010
Technical Report - September 3, 2010Technical Report - September 3, 2010
Technical Report - September 3, 2010
 
Derivatives report 01 nov-2010
Derivatives report 01 nov-2010Derivatives report 01 nov-2010
Derivatives report 01 nov-2010
 
Cinemax ru4 qfy2010-270510
Cinemax ru4 qfy2010-270510Cinemax ru4 qfy2010-270510
Cinemax ru4 qfy2010-270510
 

Similar to Cairn India Event Update 25 03 10

Cairn India
Cairn IndiaCairn India
Cairn India
Angel Broking
 
RIL - result Update
RIL - result UpdateRIL - result Update
RIL - result Update
Angel Broking
 
SBI
SBISBI
Gipcl
Gipcl Gipcl
SpiceJet
SpiceJetSpiceJet
SpiceJet
Angel Broking
 
Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510
Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510
Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510
Angel Broking
 
Gdl result update 4 qfy2010-300410
Gdl  result update 4 qfy2010-300410Gdl  result update 4 qfy2010-300410
Gdl result update 4 qfy2010-300410
Angel Broking
 
Hindalco Novelis
Hindalco Novelis Hindalco Novelis
Hindalco Novelis
Angel Broking
 
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Angel Broking
 
Blue Star
Blue StarBlue Star
Blue Star
Angel Broking
 
Marico Result Update
Marico Result UpdateMarico Result Update
Marico Result Update
Angel Broking
 
GSKCH
GSKCHGSKCH
RIL Result Update
RIL Result UpdateRIL Result Update
RIL Result Update
Angel Broking
 
GCPL
GCPLGCPL
Motherson Sumi Systems
Motherson Sumi Systems Motherson Sumi Systems
Motherson Sumi Systems
Angel Broking
 
Cairn india ltd q3 fy12 result update
Cairn india ltd q3 fy12 result updateCairn india ltd q3 fy12 result update
Cairn india ltd q3 fy12 result update
Vinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com
 
Bharat Forge
Bharat ForgeBharat Forge
Bharat Forge
Angel Broking
 
Anant raj
Anant raj Anant raj
Anant raj
Angel Broking
 
Gail india event update - 200410
Gail india   event update - 200410Gail india   event update - 200410
Gail india event update - 200410
Angel Broking
 
BHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result UpdateBHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result Update
Angel Broking
 

Similar to Cairn India Event Update 25 03 10 (20)

Cairn India
Cairn IndiaCairn India
Cairn India
 
RIL - result Update
RIL - result UpdateRIL - result Update
RIL - result Update
 
SBI
SBISBI
SBI
 
Gipcl
Gipcl Gipcl
Gipcl
 
SpiceJet
SpiceJetSpiceJet
SpiceJet
 
Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510
Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510
Hindalco Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510
 
Gdl result update 4 qfy2010-300410
Gdl  result update 4 qfy2010-300410Gdl  result update 4 qfy2010-300410
Gdl result update 4 qfy2010-300410
 
Hindalco Novelis
Hindalco Novelis Hindalco Novelis
Hindalco Novelis
 
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
 
Blue Star
Blue StarBlue Star
Blue Star
 
Marico Result Update
Marico Result UpdateMarico Result Update
Marico Result Update
 
GSKCH
GSKCHGSKCH
GSKCH
 
RIL Result Update
RIL Result UpdateRIL Result Update
RIL Result Update
 
GCPL
GCPLGCPL
GCPL
 
Motherson Sumi Systems
Motherson Sumi Systems Motherson Sumi Systems
Motherson Sumi Systems
 
Cairn india ltd q3 fy12 result update
Cairn india ltd q3 fy12 result updateCairn india ltd q3 fy12 result update
Cairn india ltd q3 fy12 result update
 
Bharat Forge
Bharat ForgeBharat Forge
Bharat Forge
 
Anant raj
Anant raj Anant raj
Anant raj
 
Gail india event update - 200410
Gail india   event update - 200410Gail india   event update - 200410
Gail india event update - 200410
 
BHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result UpdateBHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result Update
 

More from Angel Broking

Market outlook 110612
Market outlook 110612Market outlook 110612
Market outlook 110612
Angel Broking
 
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Angel Broking
 
Electrosteel castings
Electrosteel castingsElectrosteel castings
Electrosteel castings
Angel Broking
 
Persistent systems
Persistent systemsPersistent systems
Persistent systems
Angel Broking
 
Ht media
Ht mediaHt media
Ht media
Angel Broking
 
Derivative report 19th July 2011
Derivative report 19th July 2011Derivative report 19th July 2011
Derivative report 19th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Market outlook 19th July 2011
Market outlook 19th July 2011Market outlook 19th July 2011
Market outlook 19th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Telecom sector
Telecom sectorTelecom sector
Telecom sector
Angel Broking
 
Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Weekly Report 18th July 2011Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Derivative Report 18th July 2011Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Technical Report 18th July 2011
Technical Report 18th July 2011Technical Report 18th July 2011
Technical Report 18th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Market Outlook 18th July 2011Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
South Indian Bank
 South Indian Bank South Indian Bank
South Indian Bank
Angel Broking
 
Bajaj auto Result Updated
Bajaj auto Result UpdatedBajaj auto Result Updated
Bajaj auto Result Updated
Angel Broking
 
Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services
Angel Broking
 
Fc4 e63c4d01
Fc4 e63c4d01Fc4 e63c4d01
Fc4 e63c4d01
Angel Broking
 
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Technical Report 15th July 2011
Technical Report 15th July 2011Technical Report 15th July 2011
Technical Report 15th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result UpdatedInfosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
Angel Broking
 
Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Derivative Report 13th July 2011Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Angel Broking
 

More from Angel Broking (20)

Market outlook 110612
Market outlook 110612Market outlook 110612
Market outlook 110612
 
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
 
Electrosteel castings
Electrosteel castingsElectrosteel castings
Electrosteel castings
 
Persistent systems
Persistent systemsPersistent systems
Persistent systems
 
Ht media
Ht mediaHt media
Ht media
 
Derivative report 19th July 2011
Derivative report 19th July 2011Derivative report 19th July 2011
Derivative report 19th July 2011
 
Market outlook 19th July 2011
Market outlook 19th July 2011Market outlook 19th July 2011
Market outlook 19th July 2011
 
Telecom sector
Telecom sectorTelecom sector
Telecom sector
 
Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Weekly Report 18th July 2011Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Weekly Report 18th July 2011
 
Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Derivative Report 18th July 2011Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Derivative Report 18th July 2011
 
Technical Report 18th July 2011
Technical Report 18th July 2011Technical Report 18th July 2011
Technical Report 18th July 2011
 
Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Market Outlook 18th July 2011Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Market Outlook 18th July 2011
 
South Indian Bank
 South Indian Bank South Indian Bank
South Indian Bank
 
Bajaj auto Result Updated
Bajaj auto Result UpdatedBajaj auto Result Updated
Bajaj auto Result Updated
 
Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services
 
Fc4 e63c4d01
Fc4 e63c4d01Fc4 e63c4d01
Fc4 e63c4d01
 
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
 
Technical Report 15th July 2011
Technical Report 15th July 2011Technical Report 15th July 2011
Technical Report 15th July 2011
 
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result UpdatedInfosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
 
Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Derivative Report 13th July 2011Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Derivative Report 13th July 2011
 

Recently uploaded

高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
234knry
 
欧洲杯投注-欧洲杯投注买球-欧洲杯投注买球网|【​网址​🎉ac22.net🎉​】
欧洲杯投注-欧洲杯投注买球-欧洲杯投注买球网|【​网址​🎉ac22.net🎉​】欧洲杯投注-欧洲杯投注买球-欧洲杯投注买球网|【​网址​🎉ac22.net🎉​】
欧洲杯投注-欧洲杯投注买球-欧洲杯投注买球网|【​网址​🎉ac22.net🎉​】
brunasordi905
 
一比一原版(cwu毕业证书)美国中央华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(cwu毕业证书)美国中央华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(cwu毕业证书)美国中央华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(cwu毕业证书)美国中央华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理
asukqco
 
The state of welfare Resolution Foundation Event
The state of welfare Resolution Foundation EventThe state of welfare Resolution Foundation Event
The state of welfare Resolution Foundation Event
ResolutionFoundation
 
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptx
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptx13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptx
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptx
ILC- UK
 
一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理
vpqasyb
 
Importance of community participation in development projects.pdf
Importance of community participation in development projects.pdfImportance of community participation in development projects.pdf
Importance of community participation in development projects.pdf
krisretro1
 
Chapter 25: Economic Growth Summary from Samuelson and Nordhaus
Chapter 25: Economic Growth Summary from Samuelson and NordhausChapter 25: Economic Growth Summary from Samuelson and Nordhaus
Chapter 25: Economic Growth Summary from Samuelson and Nordhaus
iraangeles4
 
Exploring-Madhya-Pradesh-Culture-Heritage-and-Land-Records.pptx
Exploring-Madhya-Pradesh-Culture-Heritage-and-Land-Records.pptxExploring-Madhya-Pradesh-Culture-Heritage-and-Land-Records.pptx
Exploring-Madhya-Pradesh-Culture-Heritage-and-Land-Records.pptx
cosmo-soil
 
PM pre reads for the product manager framework
PM pre reads for the product manager frameworkPM pre reads for the product manager framework
PM pre reads for the product manager framework
KishoreKatta6
 
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdfSeeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Ashis Kumar Dey
 
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory Frameworks
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksKYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory Frameworks
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory Frameworks
Any kyc Account
 
真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样
真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样
真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样
28xo7hf
 
BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...
BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...
BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...
Neil Day
 
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?
Newman Leech
 
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Suomen Pankki
 
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Govt Accounting in Nigeria Prof Oyedokun.pptx
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Govt Accounting in Nigeria Prof Oyedokun.pptxBudgeting as a Control Tool in Govt Accounting in Nigeria Prof Oyedokun.pptx
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Govt Accounting in Nigeria Prof Oyedokun.pptx
Godwin Emmanuel Oyedokun MBA MSc PhD FCA FCTI FCNA CFE FFAR
 
How to Use Payment Vouchers in Odoo 18.
How to Use Payment Vouchers in  Odoo 18.How to Use Payment Vouchers in  Odoo 18.
How to Use Payment Vouchers in Odoo 18.
FinShe
 
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
Commonwealth
 
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete Guide
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete GuideHow to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete Guide
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete Guide
Daniel
 

Recently uploaded (20)

高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
 
欧洲杯投注-欧洲杯投注买球-欧洲杯投注买球网|【​网址​🎉ac22.net🎉​】
欧洲杯投注-欧洲杯投注买球-欧洲杯投注买球网|【​网址​🎉ac22.net🎉​】欧洲杯投注-欧洲杯投注买球-欧洲杯投注买球网|【​网址​🎉ac22.net🎉​】
欧洲杯投注-欧洲杯投注买球-欧洲杯投注买球网|【​网址​🎉ac22.net🎉​】
 
一比一原版(cwu毕业证书)美国中央华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(cwu毕业证书)美国中央华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(cwu毕业证书)美国中央华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(cwu毕业证书)美国中央华盛顿大学毕业证如何办理
 
The state of welfare Resolution Foundation Event
The state of welfare Resolution Foundation EventThe state of welfare Resolution Foundation Event
The state of welfare Resolution Foundation Event
 
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptx
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptx13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptx
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptx
 
一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理
 
Importance of community participation in development projects.pdf
Importance of community participation in development projects.pdfImportance of community participation in development projects.pdf
Importance of community participation in development projects.pdf
 
Chapter 25: Economic Growth Summary from Samuelson and Nordhaus
Chapter 25: Economic Growth Summary from Samuelson and NordhausChapter 25: Economic Growth Summary from Samuelson and Nordhaus
Chapter 25: Economic Growth Summary from Samuelson and Nordhaus
 
Exploring-Madhya-Pradesh-Culture-Heritage-and-Land-Records.pptx
Exploring-Madhya-Pradesh-Culture-Heritage-and-Land-Records.pptxExploring-Madhya-Pradesh-Culture-Heritage-and-Land-Records.pptx
Exploring-Madhya-Pradesh-Culture-Heritage-and-Land-Records.pptx
 
PM pre reads for the product manager framework
PM pre reads for the product manager frameworkPM pre reads for the product manager framework
PM pre reads for the product manager framework
 
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdfSeeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
 
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory Frameworks
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksKYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory Frameworks
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory Frameworks
 
真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样
真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样
真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样
 
BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...
BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...
BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...
 
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?
 
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
 
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Govt Accounting in Nigeria Prof Oyedokun.pptx
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Govt Accounting in Nigeria Prof Oyedokun.pptxBudgeting as a Control Tool in Govt Accounting in Nigeria Prof Oyedokun.pptx
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Govt Accounting in Nigeria Prof Oyedokun.pptx
 
How to Use Payment Vouchers in Odoo 18.
How to Use Payment Vouchers in  Odoo 18.How to Use Payment Vouchers in  Odoo 18.
How to Use Payment Vouchers in Odoo 18.
 
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
 
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete Guide
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete GuideHow to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete Guide
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete Guide
 

Cairn India Event Update 25 03 10

  • 1. Event Update | Oil & Gas March 25, 2010 Cairn India NEUTRAL CMP Rs298 Reserve, Production boost Target Price - Post the comprehensive review of the Rajasthan block's resource potential, Cairn Investment Period - India (CIL) has revised upwards the production targets, in-place reserves and Stock Info discovered reserves. We expect this to be value accretive for CIL. Thus, factoring in the Rajasthan Exploratory Portfolio upsides (addition of Rs25/share to our Target Sector OIl & Gas Price) and advancing production from the MBA block (addition of Rs20/share to Market Cap (Rs cr) 56,606 Target Price) our Fair Value for the stock stands revised upwards at Rs315/share Beta 0.9 (Rs269), translating into an upside of 5.2% from current levels. We maintain our 52 Week High / Low 310/175 Neutral view on the stock. Avg Daily Volume 810331 Rajasthan discoverable and potential resources upgraded: CIL has augmented its Face Value (Rs) 10 discovered resource base in the Rajasthan basin to 4.0bn boe from the earlier BSE Sensex 17,559 estimates of 3.7bn boe. Core MBA formation estimates remains unchanged at 2.1bn boe. However, estimates of the Rajasthan small fields and other Rajasthan Nifty 5,260 fields (prominent being Barmer Hill formation) have been hiked from 1.7bn boe to Reuters Code CAIL.BO 1.9-2.0bn boe. This increase does not enhance valuations, as higher recoverable Bloomberg Code CAIR@IN volumes have been factored in our estimates. CIL has also raised potential resource base of the Rajasthan block to 6.5bn boe on account of the increase in gross un-risked Shareholding Pattern (%) reserve estimate to 2.5bn boe. We believe the earlier gross un-risked reserve estimate Promoters 62.4 would have been around 0.44bn boe. Accordingly, our implied valuation of the net risked resource potential for the Rajasthan block at EV/boe of US $3.8/boe MF / Banks / Indian FIs 8.7 stood at Rs3.1/share. The same now stands at Rs28/share post the significant FII / NRIs / OCBs 26.4 increase in net risk potential and increase in the EV/boe multiple applied by us. Indian Public / Others 2.5 Rajasthan plateau production potential raised: According to management, CIL's Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr enhanced resource base provides a vision to up the plateau production rate to 240,000bpd (175,000bpd currently). The production rate from the Mangala fields Sensex 1.1 81.6 32.2 has been increased to 150,000bpd from 125,000bpd earlier. The raise is largely Cairn India 6.3 57.2 139.1 on account of better-than-expected well deliverability and better reservoir quality. Key Financials Financials Y/E March FY2009* FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 1,433 1,996 7,908 14,915 % chg 41.5 39.3 296.2 88.6 Profit Net Profit 803 1,171 4,340 8,687 % chg - 45.7 270.7 100.2 OPM (%) 60.5 63.4 81.3 84.0 EPS (Rs) 4.2 6.2 22.9 45.8 P/E (x) 70.5 48.3 13.0 6.5 P/BV (x) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 Deepak Pareek Pareek RoE (%) 2.7 3.5 12.4 23.8 Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 340 E-mail: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com RoCE (%) 1.3 2.3 13.7 26.1 EV/Sales (x) 39.3 27.9 6.9 3.5 Vora Amit Vora Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 322 EV/EBITDA (x) 64.9 44.0 8.4 4.2 E-mail: amit.vora@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Performance for 15 months period Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
  • 2. Cairn India | Event Update Rajasthan discoverable and potential resources upgraded CIL has augmented its discovered resource base in the Rajasthan basin to 4.0bn boe from the earlier estimates of 3.7bn boe. Core MBA formation estimates remains unchanged at 2.1bn boe. However, estimates of the Rajasthan small fields and other Rajasthan fields (prominent being Barmer Hill formation) have been hiked from 1.7bn boe to 1.9-2.0bn boe. This increase does not enhance valuations, as higher recoverable volumes have been factored in our estimates. CIL has also raised potential resource base of the Rajasthan block to 6.5bn boe on account of the increase in gross un-risked reserve estimate to 2.5bn boe. We believe the earlier gross un-risked reserve estimate would have been around 0.44bn boe, an increase of 5.7x from earlier levels. The risked recoverable reserve estimates pertaining to the same has been hiked from 35mn boe to 250mn boe. Accordingly, our implied valuation of the net risked resource potential for the Rajasthan block at EV/boe of US $3.8/boe stood at Rs3.1/share. The same now stands increased to Rs27.9/share post the significant increase in net risk potential and increase in the EV/boe multiple applied by us. We now value the exploratory upside at the Rajasthan block at 50% discount to the implied EV/boe of the core MBA fields. Management has however not provided any update on the gross un-risked reserve potential of the other exploratory fields. Earlier, management had guided the net exploratory prospective resources of 1.4bn boe, of which we believe Rajasthan block constituted around 0.44bn boe. Post the recent update, Rajasthan alone has seen gross un-risked resource potential increase to 2.5bn boe. Management will be providing an update on exploratory upsides from the other fields in due course. Exhibit 1: CIL- Recoverable Reserves Estimates Particulars (mm boe) Previous Current Angel Estimates MBA 685 685 685 MBA(EOR) 308 308 308 Other Rajasthan fields 80 140 172 Exploratory upside 35 250 250 Total recoverable reserves 1,108 1,383 1,415 Source: Angel Research March 25, 2010 2
  • 3. Cairn India | Event Update Rajasthan plateau production potential upgraded According to management, CIL's enhanced resource base provides a vision to up the plateau production rate to 240,000bpd (175,000bpd currently). The increase in the plateau would be driven by higher production from the core MBA fields, production from EOR, Barmer Hill and newer discoveries. The production rate from the Mangala fields has been increased to 150,000bpd from 125,000bpd earlier. The raise is largely on account of better-than-expected well deliverability and better reservoir quality. The production rate at the horizontal wells at Mangala filed has been good at 12,000bpd. While management has not divulged details of the ramp-up of capacity, production ramp-up is unlikely to be a constraint for processing capacity. Capacity of the both the processing terminal as well as the pipeline could be enhanced by minor de-bottlenecking with minimal capex. As per current developmental plans, the processing capacity post commissioning of all the trains will stand at 205,000bpd. Capacity of the processing terminal could be increased by expansion of Train- I to 50,000bpd from 30,000bpd and de-bottlenecking of other trains. Capacity of the pipeline could easily be enhanced with commissioning of additional boosters. Con-call Highlights Rajasthan development update: CIL is currently producing around 20,000bpd from Train-I of the Mangala field, while Train II and III are likely to get ready by 2QCY2010. Completion schedule of Train IV has been left unchanged and targeted for completion in CY2011. The entire pipeline section from MPT to Salaya (600kms) is likely to be commissioned in 2QCY2010. This also includes the spur facility to the refineries. Further, infrastructure to Bhogat, Gujarat coast is scheduled to get completed in 2011. CIL has maintained its capex estimates for CY2010 and CY2011 at US $2.5bn (gross). Offtake issues getting resolved: CIL has contracted 143,000bpd of crude sales with MRPL, IOC, RIL (doesn't include RIL's SEZ refinery) and Essar Oil. The contracted volumes provide the visibility for the offtake of the crude as production ramps up at the Mangala field as the pipeline infrastructure and additional trains commence operations. Revising upwards our estimates on higher potential production volumes, crude oil prices We maintain our FY2010E estimates. However, on account of upward revision in the crude oil prices for FY2011E from US $70/bbl to US $75/bbl, our Earnings estimates have been revised upwards by 6.7% for FY2011. From FY2012E onwards, we maintain our long-term crude oil estimate of US $75/bbl. On the production front, we have revised our estimates for the Mangala field from 125,000bpd to 150,000bpd for the plateau period starting FY2012E. However, as there is no change in the recoverable reserves estimates, we have factored in higher-than-forecast decline rate in production from the field. Similarly, from FY2013E onwards, we have revised our production estimates for the Aishwariya field to 20,000bpd from 15,000bpd. We have also factored in higher-than-forecast decline in the rate of production post the plateau period. Thus, on account of better well deliverability, advancement of production from these fields is estimated. We now model peak plateau production of 210,000bpd from 180,000bpd. This is lower than March 25, 2010 3
  • 4. Cairn India | Event Update 240,000bpd of sustainable volumes guided by management for the long term. However, owing to lack of visibility, we have not factored the same in our estimates. Due to upgrade in production volumes, our FY2012E EPS stands increased by 8.5% CIL has filed declaration of commerciality for the Barmer Hill formation. The field development plan (FDP) of the same is likely to be filed later, in stages. We would factor the same in our forecast once the FDP gets filed. Thus, factoring in the Rajasthan Exploratory Portfolio upsides (addition of Rs25/share to our Target Price) and advancing production from the MBA block (addition of Rs20/share to Target Price) our Fair Value for the stock stands revised upwards at Rs315/share (Rs269), translating into an upside of 5.2% from current levels. Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Exhibit 2: Valuation Summary Particulars (Rs cr) FY2011E FY2012E Rajasthan Block RJ-ON-90/1 (MBA block) 36,546 38,740 Value per share 193 204 RJ-ON-90/1 (MBA EOR) 5,372 6,017 Value per share 28 32 RJ-ON-90/1 (Barmer Hill) 2,541 2,713 Value per share 13 14 RJ-ON-90/1 (Southern fields) 508 543 Value per share 3 3 RJ-ON-90/1 (Other fields) 4,223 4,509 Value per share 22 24 Value of Rajasthan Block 49,191 52,522 Value per share 259 277 CB-OS-2 590 413 Value per share 3 2 Ravva 1,860 1,653 Value per share 10 9 Upside potential (KG-DWN-98/2) 302 331 Value per share 2 2 Exploratory porfolio upsides 6,178 6,769 Value per share 33 36 Total Asset Value 58,120 61,687 Less: Corporate expenditure 2,333 2,243 Value per share 12 12 Less: Net debt (92) (232) Value per share (0) (1) Equity value 55,879 59,676 Equity shares (mn) 190 190 Equity value per share (Rs) 295 315 Source: Company, Angel Research March 25, 2010 4
  • 5. Cairn India | Event Update Exhibit 3: Sensitivity with Crude and Exchange Rate Prices Crude Prices (US$/bbl) 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 42.0 240 263 282 298 314 335 357 43.0 246 270 289 306 322 344 359 Exchange Rate 44.0 252 277 290 307 330 353 368 (Rs/US$) 45.0 259 283 297 315 338 361 377 46.0 265 290 304 322 346 363 386 47.0 271 293 312 330 354 372 396 48.0 277 299 312 338 363 380 405 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 4: Sensitivity with Crude and WACC Prices Crude Prices (US$/bbl) 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 9.0 285 313 327 347 372 398 416 10.0 276 302 317 335 360 385 402 WACC (%) 11.0 267 292 307 325 349 373 389 12.0 259 283 297 315 338 361 377 13.0 251 275 289 305 328 351 366 14.0 244 267 280 297 319 341 356 15.0 237 260 273 289 310 332 346 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 5: Sensitivity with Crude and Discount on Crude Prices Crude Prices (US$/bbl) 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 7.0 282 302 322 347 366 391 407 9.0 279 295 314 339 357 382 406 Discount (%) 11.0 272 294 306 331 355 373 397 13.0 265 287 305 323 347 364 387 15.0 259 283 297 315 338 361 377 17.0 252 276 295 313 329 352 368 Source: Company, Angel Research March 25, 2010 5
  • 6. Cairn India | Event Update Exhibit 6: Relative performance with peers Exhibit 7: Relative performance with Sensex and Oil & Gas Index 300 450 250 400 350 200 300 (Rs) 150 250 (%) 200 100 150 50 100 50 0 - May-07 May-08 May-09 Jan-07 Mar-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Jan-07 May-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 May-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 May-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Cairn ONGC RIL CIL SENSEX BSE OIL & GAS Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 8: Out-performance relative to Sensex Exhibit 9: Out-performance relative to BSE Oil & Gas Index 60 50 50 40 20 30 (%) 20 (%) 10 (10) - (10) (20) (40) Sept-09 May-07 May-08 May-09 Nov-07 Nov-09 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Sep-07 Sep-08 July-08 Jan-07 May-07 Jan-08 May-08 Jan-09 May-09 Jan-10 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Nov08 Jul-07 Jul-09 SENSEX CIL BSE OIL & GAS CIL Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research March 25, 2010 6
  • 7. Cairn India | Event Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March CY2007 FY2009* FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 1,012 1,433 1,996 7,908 14,915 Less: Excise duty - - - - - Net Sales 1,012 1,433 1,996 7,908 14,915 Other operating income - - - - - Total operating income 1,012 1,433 1,996 7,908 14,915 % chg 41.5 39.3 296.2 88.6 Total Expenditure 572 566 731 1,477 2,383 Operating expenditure 195 213 400 1,145 2,052 Administrative expenditure 388 331 331 331 331 Inc/dec in stock (11) 22 - - - EBITDA EBITDA 440 866 1,264 6,431 12,532 % chg 96.7 46.0 408.6 94.9 (% of Net Sales) 43.5 60.5 63.4 81.3 84.0 Depreciation& Amortisation 445 438 401 961 1,689 EBIT (5) 428 863 5,471 10,843 % chg - - 101.6 533.9 98.2 (% of Net Sales) (0.5) 29.9 43.2 69.2 72.7 Interest & other Charges 2 6 76 305 305 Other Income 132 594 550 208 253 (% of PBT) 105.2 58.5 41.1 3.9 2.3 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - Recurring PBT 126 1,016 1,337 5,374 10,791 % chg - 707.0 31.5 302.0 100.8 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - 28.3 - - - PBT (reported) 126 988 1,337 5,374 10,791 Tax 150 184 166 1,034 2,105 (% of PBT) 119.5 18.7 12.4 19.2 19.5 PAT (reported) (25) 803 1,171 4,340 8,687 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - Prior period items - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) (25) 803 1,171 4,340 8,687 ADJ. PAT ADJ. PA (25) 832 1,171 4,340 8,687 % chg - - 40.8 270.7 100.2 (% of Net Sales) (2.4) 58.1 58.7 54.9 58.2 Basic EPS (Rs) (0.1) 4.2 6.2 22.9 45.8 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) (0.1) 4.2 6.2 22.9 45.8 % chg - - 45.7 270.7 100.2 Note: *Performance for 15 months period March 25, 2010 7
  • 8. Cairn India | Event Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March CY2007 FY2009* FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 1,873 1,936 1,936 1,936 1,936 Preference Capital - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 27,563 30,867 32,038 33,839 35,411 Funds Shareholders Funds 29,436 32,802 33,973 35,774 37,347 Minority Interest - - - - - Total Loans 312 4,356 4,356 4,356 4,356 Deferred Tax Liability 492 554 560 585 632 Total Liabilities 30,240 37,713 38,890 40,716 42,335 APPLICATION OF FUNDS APPLICATION Gross Block 548 1,445 7,496 9,698 11,178 Less: Acc. Depreciation 61 80 118 246 375 Net Block 488 1,365 7,378 9,453 10,803 Capital Work-in-Progress 2,467 5,203 1,829 1,927 1,927 Goodwill 25,319 25,319 25,319 25,319 25,319 Investments 713 171 171 171 171 Current Assets 2,088 7,268 5,524 6,847 9,167 Cash 1,332 6,527 4,700 5,273 6,673 Loans & Advances 487 351 351 351 351 Other 270 390 474 1,223 2,144 Current liabilities 835 1,613 1,332 3,001 5,053 Net Current Assets 1,253 5,655 4,192 3,846 4,114 Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - Total Assets 30,240 37,713 38,890 40,716 42,335 Note: *Performance for 15 months period March 25, 2010 8
  • 9. Cairn India | Event Update Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March CY2007 FY2009* FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 126 988 1,337 5,374 10,791 Depreciation 459 463 206 746 1,504 Change in Working Capital (91) 121 (364) 919 1,131 Less: Other income (73) (214) (550) (208) (253) Direct taxes paid (82) (146) (160) (1,009) (2,058) Others 209 (249) - - - Cash Flow from Operations 548 963 469 5,822 11,115 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (4,450) (3,161) (2,846) (2,918) (2,855) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (2,110) (2,506) - - - Other income 130 152 550 208 253 Cash Flow from Investing (6,430) (5,516) (2,296) (2,710) (2,602) Issue of Equity 67 2,532 - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans (169) 3,767 - - - Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) - - - (2,539) (7,114) Financing Cash Flow from Financing (102) 6,299 - (2,539) (7,114) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (5,984) 1,746 (1,827) 573 1,399 Opening Cash balances 6,135 150 1,897 70 643 Closing Cash balances 150 1,897 70 643 2,042 Note: *Performance for 15 months period March 25, 2010 9
  • 10. Cairn India | Event Update Key Ratios Y/E March CY2007 FY2009* FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 70.5 48.3 13.0 6.5 P/CEPS 334.0 52.7 41.1 11.1 5.6 P/BV 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 10.7 EV/Sales 53.8 39.3 27.9 6.9 3.5 EV/EBITDA 123.6 64.9 44.0 8.4 4.2 EV/Total Assets 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) (0.1) 4.2 6.2 22.9 45.8 EPS (fully diluted) (0.1) 4.2 6.2 22.9 45.8 Cash EPS 0.9 5.7 7.3 26.8 53.7 DPS - - - 11.4 32.1 Book Value 155.2 172.9 179.1 188.6 196.9 Dupont Analysis (%) EBIT margin (0.5) 29.9 43.2 69.2 72.7 Tax retention ratio 8.5 82.4 87.6 80.8 80.5 Asset turnover (x) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 ROIC (Post-tax) (0.0) 1.2 2.3 12.7 24.6 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - Leverage (x) - - - - - Operating ROE (0.0) 1.2 2.3 12.7 24.6 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) (0.0) 1.3 2.3 13.7 26.1 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 0.5 48.0 22.4 71.8 130.5 ROE (0.1) 2.7 3.5 12.4 23.8 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 Inventory / Sales (days) 44.5 36.9 34.8 18.9 20.8 Receivables (days) 58.9 36.5 31.4 17.0 18.7 Payables (days) 1,322.2 531.2 518.6 428.4 550.5 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) (620.2) (121.1) (126.2) (44.7) (48.8) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) Net debt to EBITDA (4.9) (0.4) (0.7) (0.4) (0.3) Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) (3.0) 66.8 11.3 17.9 35.6 Note: *Performance for 15 months period March 25, 2010 10
  • 11. Cairn India | Event Update Cairn India Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true and are for general guidance only. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information contained, the company takes no guarantee and assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the information. No one can use the information as the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. Recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions - futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views expressed in this document. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Angel Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent Angel Securities and affiliates from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Angel Securities Limited and affiliates, including the analyst who has issued this report, may, on the date of this report, and from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities of the companies mentioned herein or engage in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or compensation or act as advisor or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to company/ies mentioned herein or inconsistent with any recommendation and related information and opinions. Angel Securities Limited and affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Note: Please refer important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on Angel web-site (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Cairn India 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 5 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%) March 25, 2010 11
  • 12. Cairn India Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com Rahul Jain IT rahul.j@angeltrade.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Shreya Gaunekar Research Associate (Automobile) shreyap.gaunekar@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Jaya Agarwal Jr. Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Dharmil Adhyaru Assistant Research Editor dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302