1. C O M P A N Y U P D A T E
India
17 Apr 2012 KPR Mill Rs 80.85
Sector: Textile Underpowered, but ready to soar
xxxo...
KPR Mill has braved industry headwinds to report 15.4% growth in
BSE Sensex 17,358
9mFY12 revenues, EBITDA margin of 14.38% and PAT margin of 2.9%.
Nifty 5,290
52 week high (Rs) 194 Tamil Nadu’s power crisis affected output in Q3FY12, resulting in reduced
52 week low (Rs) 77
utilization and delay in operations of new high-value compact yarn
spinning facilities, but the company managed to stay in black.
Compact Yarn capacity fully operational from January 5, 2012
Bloomberg KPR.IN KPR’s new capacity is fully operational from January 5, 2012, increasing
NSE Code KPRMILL the Yarn capacity to 90,000MT p.a.
BSE Code 532889 Power situation to improve after June
Equity Shares 37.68 The power deficit in the state may continue till June when monsoon
(m)
Face Value (Rs) 10 arrives, and wind-mills produce power. Henceforth, we expect the
Market Cap 3,047 utilization to be in line with historical numbers. The state government has
(Rs mn) already fast-tracked power projects.
We have revised downward revenue and PAT estimates for FY12. FY13 has
Share Price Performance % also been reduced on account of expected utilization drop due to state’s
power issues in Q1.
KPR Sensex
1 week -1.3 0.7 A cocktail of right fundamentals and future growth potential
1 month -4.0 -0.6 With yarn capacity now increased by 60% to 90,000MT, KPR is poised to
3 month -10.0 5.4 reap rich benefits from textile demand revival.
6 month -15.3 2.0 KPR has the healthiest balance sheet among peers even with
1 year -56.8 -10.5 recent capacity expansion, modernization and debt for Sugar Mill.
Growth drivers for FY13: FY13 will benefit from new high value-
add Compact Yarn capacity. Power self-sufficiency by H2FY13 will
Shareholding Pattern
(Mar’11)% save costs and ensure operations continuity year round. Sugar mill
Promoters 74.48 operations will commence in Q3FY13. Textile sector will witness
FIIs/ FVCIs 8.88 revival as cotton prices have now stabilized worldwide.
DII 1.08 We have revised our Mar’13 price target from Rs 240 to Rs 180, as
Corporates 3.36 power shortage will result in underperformance in Q1FY13 too,
Others 12.5 lowering the FY13 EBITDA and PAT margins.
Despite challenges in FY12, KPR remains a quality stock, and
amongst the best picks in the textile space. FY13 will see profit
revival and FY14 could see return to full profitability. At a likely
FY14 PE <2x, and D/E of <1x, KPR offers value at current price.
FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12e FY'13e FY'14e
Revenue (Rs. Mn) 4,974 6,064 7,477 8,340 11,074 12,755 16,165 19,757
EBITDA (Rs. Mn) 1,359 1,384 1,097 1,641 2,493 1,786 2,942 3,996
PAT (Rs. Mn) 584 793 101 504 722 332 931 1,839
EBITDA margin (%) 27 23 15 20 23 14.0 18 20
Net margin (%) 11.7 13.1 1.4 6.0 6.5 2.6 5.8 9.3
ROE (%) 21 19 2 10 13 5 14 24
ROCE (%) 15 10 5 9 11 6 11 18
P/E Ratio (x) NL 4.6 7.7 8.3 9.7 9.5 3.3 1.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 6.7 5.1 5.0 5.5 6.9 3.9 2.2
D/E 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.8
Dividend Yield (%) NL 5.2 9.7 4.9 3.3 4.9 6.2 7.4
NL = Not Listed
Four-s reports are available on BLOOMBERG, Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Market Publishers
2. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12
Performance Update
Underpowered in Q3FY12
Tamil Nadu power woes affect performance
TN power issues Tamil Nadu is facing power shortage of ~4000MW leading to power
have impacted cuts of as high as five-six hours in daytime in areas like Coimbatore.
Coimbatore-based This has impacted the operations of manufacturing industries.
manufacturing
facilities Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Ltd (TANGEDCO) estimates
power demand in Tamil Nadu to be around 11,500-12,500MW
growing by 10% on back of industrial capacity additions. The Supply
is pegged to be around 8,500MW at present, leaving the state with a
shortage of upto 4,000MW.
TANGEDCO has started a day per week as power holiday hitting the
Coimbatore textile industry with an estimated Rs 3bn production loss
per day. TN’s Distribution utility has demanded a 64% rise in energy
charges for FY13.
Q3 impacted due to reduced utilization
Q3FY12 utilization KPR’s Q3 performance was affected as utilization reduced to 85%
reduced to 85% from 90% levels. Also, KPR had to bear additional power cost of Rs
due to power 45mn has it sought to buy merchant power to partially fill the supply
shortage
gap.
KPR Mill Q3FY'12 Q2FY'12 Q-o-Q Q3FY'11 Y-0-Y
Operating Income 2,820 3,401 -17% 3,037 -7%
Raw Material costs 1,873 2,443 -23% 1,819 3%
Employee Cost 206 181 14% 253 -19%
Other Expenditure 310 312 -1% 262 19%
EBITDA 430 465 -7% 703 -39%
EBITDA Margin% 15.3% 13.7% 23.1%
Depreciation 255 247 3% 191 34%
EBIT 175 218 -20% 512 -66%
Interest 133 122 9% 52 155%
Other Income 13 12 12% 6 136%
PBT 55 108 -49% 465 -88%
Tax 1 (2) -133% 129 -99%
PAT 54 110 -51% 336 -84%
PAT Margin % 1.9% 3.2% 11.1%
Rs Mn
Q3 revenue declined 17% QoQ and PAT declined 51% QoQ. If we
exclude the MTM loss of Rs 122.4mn taken as other expenditure in
Q2, Q2FY12 EBITDA margin be 17.3%. Hence on a QoQ basis, there
was a decline in EBITDA margin as well.
Exports growing strongly
YTD FY12 revenues boosted by exports
YTD revenues up KPR achieved a nine monthly revenue growth of 15% YoY, at par
15% YoY, Margins with peer average. KPR’s exports increased 44.5% YoY and
Four-S Research 2
3. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12
impacted due to accounted for 35% of revenues compared to 27% in corresponding
industry issues period last year.
While Garment exports increased 14% YoY, KPR stepped up exports
of other products – Yarn and Fabrics in YTD FY12.
KPR Mill 9M FY'11 9M FY'12 YoY
Operating Income 8,072 9,314 15%
Raw Material costs 4,745 6,694 41%
Employee Cost 595 610 3%
Other Expenditure 716 671 -6%
EBITDA 2,016 1,339 -34%
EBITDA Margin% 25.0% 14.4%
Depreciation 548 734 34%
EBIT 1,468 605 -59%
Interest 172 321 87%
Other Income 14 37 166%
PBT 1,310 320 -76%
Tax 367 50 -86%
PAT 942 270 -71%
PAT Margin % 11.7% 2.9%
Cotton situation normalises
While the 9m results show high cotton costs, this is more an impact
of Q1, when KPR took a Rs 278mn write-off due to sharp drop in
cotton prices. Since then, cotton prices trended towards to historical
trading range. Going forward, we expect raw material cost/sales to
come down to normal range of around 65%. For company yarn, the
ratio would be even better since it enjoys higher margins.
KPR has also taken an MTM expense of Rs 122.4mn in Q2FY12 due
to rupee depreciation.
The depreciation costs are higher on YoY basis as KPR revised the
depreciation charges on windmill after reassessment of useful life in
Q4FY11.
Monthly Average Prices of Benchmark Cotton Variety –
Shankar 6/4
Steep fall in
cotton prices in
Q1 resulted in
inventory write-
down of Rs
278mn. Prices
have maintained
at stable levels,
thereafter.
Source: Textile Corporation of India
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4. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12
High raw material prices lower industry
profitability
Raw Material The higher raw material costs have lowered textile industry
price volatility profitability in this financial year. Average EBITDA margin of peer
affected entire group declined from 17.8% last year to 15.4% in 9mFY12.
industry.
Company Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA Margin (%) Net Margin (%)
9mFY'12 9mFY'12
9mFY'12 YoY 9mFY'11 9mFY'12 9mFY'11 reported Adj
Large Integrated Players
Alok Industries 61,581 48.1% 27.8% 28.5% 5.2% 1.6% 4.5%
Arvind Ltd.* 36,539 26.5% 13.1% 14.6% 3.7% 10.1% 5.9%
Vardhman 29,996 9.4% 25.0% 12.5% 12.0% 1.8% 1.8%
Bombay Rayon 19,388 23.5% 26.9% 26.0% 11.1% 8.5% 8.5%
Welspun India 18,602 18.4% 13.2% 16.5% 3.6% 4.2% 4.5%
Mid-Size Integrated Players
Nahar Spinning 12,277 17.6% 22.4% -2.9% 10.1% -9.9% -9.9%
Mandhana Industries 6,526 20.0% 19.1% 20.3% 9.1% 7.6% 7.6%
Mudra Lifestyle 1,632 -50.3% 12.3% -112.4% -1.4% -175.5% -175.5%
Garment Focused Exporters
House of Pearl Fashions* 18,814 20.7% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9%
Gokaldas Exports 7,259 -13.7% -2.9% -0.1% -7.3% -11.2% -10.5%
Celebrity Fashions 1,170 -13.3% -4.5% 2.1% -9.8% -9.3% -9.3%
Mean 15.7% 17.8% 15.4% 6.9% 5.0% 4.8%
KPR Mill* 9,314 15.4% 25.0% 14.4% 11.7% 2.9% 2.9%
*Consolidated results
**Q3 MTM loss excluded as KPR has not taken it to make results comparable, for
Arvind exceptional profit on sale of JV stake in Arvind Brands excluded
Negative margins excluded from average calculation
Revenue growth at par, profitability marginally lower
KPR’s revenue growth was at par with peer group in 9mFY12. Its
EBITDA was 100 basis points lower than the peer average and PAT
margins were ~200basis points lower than the peer group.
Four out of eleven peers posted losses in the period and four others
witnessed a decline in profitability.
Valuation – ttm multiples at premium
KPR is trading at a premium as far as its ttm EV/EBITDA and P/E
multiples are concerned, on account of lower profitability.
However, its EV/Sales and P/B multiples are at a discount of 28%
and 44% with respect to the peer group average.
Four-S Research 4
5. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12
Company EV/Sales EV/EBITDA PE P/B D/E
(x) (x) (x) (x) Sep-11
Large Integrated Players
Alok Industries 1.3 4.6 3.3 0.5 3.1
Arvind Ltd. 0.9 6.5 7.8 1.2 1.5
Vardhman 0.9 5.8 7.0 0.7 1.2
KPR trades at a
Bombay Rayon 2.5 10.6 15.8 1.2 1.1
discount as far as
Welspun India 0.8 5.1 NM 0.5 2.5
its P/B and EV/
Mid-Size Integrated Players
Sales multiples
Nahar Spinning 0.8 35.1 NM 0.3 1.9
are concerned.
Mandhana Industries 1.5 8.2 12.5 2.2 1.6
Mudra Lifestyle 1.9 NM NM NM 24.2
Garment Focused Exporters
House of Pearl Fashions 0.2 6.2 5.8 0.3 0.9
Gokaldas Exports 0.6 NM NM 0.9 1.0
Celebrity Fashions 0.9 50.6 NM NM NM
Mean 1.1 6.7 8.7 0.9 1.6
KPR Mill 0.8 7.7 61.2 0.5 1.2
Note: CMP as of 17th April 2012, Outstanding shares as on 31st march 2012, except for
Alok Industries.
Projections and Price Target
We revise the revenue and PAT for FY12 and 13
Estimates are We have revised our estimates for KPR Mill in FY12 and FY13 taking
revised due to the YTD performance and state’s power shortage into account.
unexpected
power issues in While we had already projected a low margin of 4% for FY12, taking
Coimbatore into account the cotton price volatility, unforeseen factors such as
rupee depreciation and state power shortage has further affected
YTD performance. Hence, we further reduce the FY12 projections.
As the TN State power shortage will take some time to resolve, and
wind-power will get efficient in monsoon season, we can expect first
quarter of FY13 also to be impacted. Hence, we have downward
revised FY13 as well.
FY12e FY13e FY14e
Revised Previous Var% Revised Previous Var% Added
Revenue (Rs. Mn) 12,755 14,003 -9% 16,165 17,743 -9% 19,757
EBITDA (Rs. Mn) 1,786 2,231 -20% 2,942 3,472 -15% 3,996
PAT (Rs. Mn) 332 566 -41% 931 1,367 -32% 1,839
EBITDA margin (%) 14.0 15.9 18.2 19.6 20.2
Net margin (%) 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.7 9.3
Fundamental growth drivers in place
Growth from higher value addition, increased exports
High-value Yarn KPR has increased its yarn capacity by 60% with addition of high-
capacity addition value compact yarn and melange yarn capacities. The compact yarn
of 60% will be a unit has gone fully operational from 5th January, 2012. FY13e will
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6. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12
key growth driver have the full benefit of added capacity.
aided by
KPR has gained traction in exports with FY08-11 CAGR of 28% to
increased traction
in exports and reach ~Rs 3bn by FY11 by mainly exporting garments. In 9mFY12, it
commencement of has stepped up yarn exports as well, and achieved an exports growth
Sugar Mill of 44.5% YoY. We expect the momentum to continue.
operations
KPR Sugar Mills will also commence operations from H2FY12.
State’s Power Situation to improve by June 2012
TN State has fast- TANGEDCO expects the power deficit to be overcome once wind-mill
tracked many generation increases from June 2012 onwards. Many new power
power projects, projects, including the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project are
and expects to
expected to be commissioned this year.
resolve the
shortage TN’s Chief Minister has also planned Udangudi Power Corporation’s
1,600MW project as a state government project and fast tracked it.
100% self-sufficiency in Power
With Co-Gen cum While KPR is already meeting 75% of its power requirements through
Sugar Mill going Wind-Mills, its Co-gen cum Sugar Mill will give it 100% power self-
operational in sufficiency in FY13. This will help it save on power costs (power
FY13 sugar
tariffs are expected to be increased this year) and increase its
season, KPR will
utilization levels.
get year around
self-sufficiency Compared to other peers, KPR will have a competitive advantage in
power.
Cotton costs have stabilized, expected to remain flat
World cotton prices have stabilized with Production expected to
surpass consumption in cotton season 2011-12. ICAC predicts world
cotton production to rise 7% YoY to 26.78MT in 2011-12 whereas
Global cotton mill use will remain stable at 23.73MT, significantly
lower than production.
As per Cotton Corporation of India, the area under cotton cultivation
will increase to 121.9 lakh hectares in 2011-12, an increase of 9.4%
YoY. Cotton Advisory Board predicts closing stock to increase by
14.5% in 2011-12 season at estimated production levels and
reduced mill consumption. Hence, cotton prices would face flat to
downward pressures.
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7. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12
40
33.9 34.5
35
30
25
Cotton prices are 22.1 21.6
expected to be 20
stable going 15
forward 8.4
10 6.9
4.8 5.5
5
0
Production Mill Use Exports Closing stock
2010-11 2011-12
Source: Office of Textile Commissioner
Valuation and Price target
KPR is trading at a P/E of 3.3x and EV/ EBITDA of 3.9X its FY13
numbers, much lower than peer average of 8.7x and 6.7x,
respectively.
At current prices, KPR gives a strong dividend yield as well.
Valuations will We expect valuations to move towards historical numbers of 8x P/E
restore to and 5X, EV/ EBITDA as industry challenges are mitigated. With
historical levels power situation expected to be normal from June 2012 onwards,
by end of FY13
stable cotton prices and increase of utilization to normal numbers,
we expect KPR to cross Rs 180 per share mark by March 2013.
Four-S Research 7
13. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12
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Four-S Research 13