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C O M P A N Y              U P D A T E

         India

   17 Apr 2012                                 KPR Mill                                            Rs 80.85
Sector: Textile                      Underpowered, but ready to soar
  xxxo...
                                     KPR Mill has braved industry headwinds to report 15.4% growth in
BSE Sensex              17,358
                                     9mFY12 revenues, EBITDA margin of 14.38% and PAT margin of 2.9%.
Nifty                    5,290
52 week high (Rs)         194        Tamil Nadu’s power crisis affected output in Q3FY12, resulting in reduced
52 week low (Rs)            77
                                     utilization and delay in operations of new high-value compact yarn
                                     spinning facilities, but the company managed to stay in black.
                                     Compact Yarn capacity fully operational from January 5, 2012
Bloomberg               KPR.IN       KPR’s new capacity is fully operational from January 5, 2012, increasing
NSE Code            KPRMILL          the Yarn capacity to 90,000MT p.a.

BSE Code                532889       Power situation to improve after June
Equity   Shares          37.68       The power deficit in the state may continue till June when monsoon
(m)
Face Value (Rs)             10       arrives, and wind-mills produce power. Henceforth, we expect the
Market Cap               3,047       utilization to be in line with historical numbers. The state government has
(Rs mn)                              already fast-tracked power projects.
                                     We have revised downward revenue and PAT estimates for FY12. FY13 has
Share Price Performance %            also been reduced on account of expected utilization drop due to state’s
                                     power issues in Q1.
                 KPR    Sensex

1 week           -1.3      0.7       A cocktail of right fundamentals and future growth potential
1 month          -4.0      -0.6      With yarn capacity now increased by 60% to 90,000MT, KPR is poised to
3 month       -10.0        5.4       reap rich benefits from textile demand revival.
6 month       -15.3        2.0               KPR has the healthiest balance sheet among peers even with
1 year        -56.8       -10.5               recent capacity expansion, modernization and debt for Sugar Mill.
                                             Growth drivers for FY13: FY13 will benefit from new high value-
                                              add Compact Yarn capacity. Power self-sufficiency by H2FY13 will
   Shareholding Pattern
        (Mar’11)%                             save costs and ensure operations continuity year round. Sugar mill
Promoters             74.48                   operations will commence in Q3FY13. Textile sector will witness
FIIs/ FVCIs               8.88                revival as cotton prices have now stabilized worldwide.
DII                       1.08       We have revised our Mar’13 price target from Rs 240 to Rs 180, as
Corporates                3.36       power shortage will result in underperformance in Q1FY13 too,
Others                    12.5       lowering the FY13 EBITDA and PAT margins.
                                     Despite challenges in FY12, KPR remains a quality stock, and
                                     amongst the best picks in the textile space. FY13 will see profit
                                     revival and FY14 could see return to full profitability. At a likely
                                     FY14 PE <2x, and D/E of <1x, KPR offers value at current price.


                                                           FY'07     FY'08 FY'09 FY'10        FY'11 FY'12e FY'13e FY'14e
                                      Revenue (Rs. Mn)      4,974     6,064 7,477 8,340       11,074 12,755 16,165 19,757
                                      EBITDA (Rs. Mn)       1,359     1,384 1,097 1,641        2,493  1,786  2,942 3,996
                                      PAT (Rs. Mn)            584       793   101   504          722    332    931 1,839
                                      EBITDA margin (%)         27        23    15    20           23  14.0      18     20
                                      Net margin (%)         11.7      13.1    1.4   6.0          6.5    2.6    5.8    9.3
                                      ROE (%)                   21        19     2    10           13      5     14     24
                                      ROCE (%)                  15        10     5     9           11      6     11     18
                                      P/E Ratio (x)             NL       4.6   7.7   8.3          9.7    9.5    3.3    1.7
                                      EV/EBITDA (x)            5.3       6.7   5.1   5.0          5.5    6.9    3.9    2.2
                                      D/E                      1.3       1.2   1.0   0.8          1.3    1.6    1.3    0.8
                                      Dividend Yield (%)        NL       5.2   9.7   4.9          3.3    4.9    6.2    7.4
                                     NL = Not Listed



                   Four-s reports are available on BLOOMBERG, Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Market Publishers
Company Update: KPR Mill                             17 Apr’12


                     Performance Update
                     Underpowered in Q3FY12
                     Tamil Nadu power woes affect performance
TN power issues      Tamil Nadu is facing power shortage of ~4000MW leading to power
have impacted        cuts of as high as five-six hours in daytime in areas like Coimbatore.
Coimbatore-based     This has impacted the operations of manufacturing industries.
manufacturing
facilities           Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Ltd (TANGEDCO) estimates
                     power demand in Tamil Nadu to be around 11,500-12,500MW
                     growing by 10% on back of industrial capacity additions. The Supply
                     is pegged to be around 8,500MW at present, leaving the state with a
                     shortage of upto 4,000MW.
                     TANGEDCO has started a day per week as power holiday hitting the
                     Coimbatore textile industry with an estimated Rs 3bn production loss
                     per day. TN’s Distribution utility has demanded a 64% rise in energy
                     charges for FY13.

                     Q3 impacted due to reduced utilization
Q3FY12 utilization   KPR’s Q3 performance was affected as utilization reduced to 85%
reduced to 85%       from 90% levels. Also, KPR had to bear additional power cost of Rs
due to power         45mn has it sought to buy merchant power to partially fill the supply
shortage
                     gap.
                      KPR Mill             Q3FY'12    Q2FY'12     Q-o-Q   Q3FY'11    Y-0-Y
                      Operating Income        2,820      3,401     -17%      3,037     -7%
                      Raw Material costs      1,873      2,443     -23%      1,819      3%
                      Employee Cost             206        181      14%        253   -19%
                      Other Expenditure         310        312      -1%        262    19%
                      EBITDA                    430        465      -7%        703   -39%
                      EBITDA Margin%         15.3%      13.7%               23.1%
                      Depreciation              255        247       3%        191     34%
                      EBIT                      175        218     -20%        512    -66%
                      Interest                  133        122       9%         52    155%
                      Other Income               13          12     12%          6    136%
                      PBT                        55        108     -49%        465    -88%
                      Tax                         1         (2)   -133%        129    -99%
                      PAT                        54        110     -51%        336    -84%
                      PAT Margin %            1.9%       3.2%               11.1%
                                                                                        Rs Mn
                     Q3 revenue declined 17% QoQ and PAT declined 51% QoQ. If we
                     exclude the MTM loss of Rs 122.4mn taken as other expenditure in
                     Q2, Q2FY12 EBITDA margin be 17.3%. Hence on a QoQ basis, there
                     was a decline in EBITDA margin as well.

                     Exports growing strongly
                     YTD FY12 revenues boosted by exports
YTD revenues up      KPR achieved a nine monthly revenue growth of 15% YoY, at par
15% YoY, Margins     with peer average. KPR’s exports increased 44.5% YoY and

Four-S Research                                                                              2
Company Update: KPR Mill                      17 Apr’12

impacted due to     accounted for 35% of revenues compared to 27% in corresponding
industry issues     period last year.
                    While Garment exports increased 14% YoY, KPR stepped up exports
                    of other products – Yarn and Fabrics in YTD FY12.
                     KPR Mill                     9M FY'11   9M FY'12    YoY
                     Operating Income                8,072      9,314   15%
                     Raw Material costs              4,745      6,694    41%
                     Employee Cost                     595        610     3%
                     Other Expenditure                 716        671    -6%
                     EBITDA                          2,016      1,339   -34%
                     EBITDA Margin%                 25.0%      14.4%
                     Depreciation                      548        734    34%
                     EBIT                            1,468        605   -59%
                     Interest                          172        321    87%
                     Other Income                       14         37   166%
                     PBT                             1,310        320   -76%
                     Tax                               367         50   -86%
                     PAT                               942        270   -71%
                     PAT Margin %                   11.7%       2.9%

                    Cotton situation normalises
                    While the 9m results show high cotton costs, this is more an impact
                    of Q1, when KPR took a Rs 278mn write-off due to sharp drop in
                    cotton prices. Since then, cotton prices trended towards to historical
                    trading range. Going forward, we expect raw material cost/sales to
                    come down to normal range of around 65%. For company yarn, the
                    ratio would be even better since it enjoys higher margins.
                    KPR has also taken an MTM expense of Rs 122.4mn in Q2FY12 due
                    to rupee depreciation.
                    The depreciation costs are higher on YoY basis as KPR revised the
                    depreciation charges on windmill after reassessment of useful life in
                    Q4FY11.

                         Monthly Average Prices of Benchmark Cotton Variety –
                                             Shankar 6/4




Steep fall in
cotton prices in
Q1 resulted in
inventory write-
down of Rs
278mn. Prices
have maintained
at stable levels,
thereafter.




                    Source: Textile Corporation of India


Four-S Research                                                                         3
Company Update: KPR Mill                              17 Apr’12

                           High    raw           material         prices          lower      industry
                           profitability
Raw Material               The higher raw material costs have lowered textile industry
price volatility           profitability in this financial year. Average EBITDA margin of peer
affected entire            group declined from 17.8% last year to 15.4% in 9mFY12.
industry.

Company                    Revenue (Rs mn)       EBITDA Margin (%)            Net Margin (%)
                                                                                9mFY'12     9mFY'12
                       9mFY'12         YoY       9mFY'11     9mFY'12   9mFY'11   reported     Adj
Large Integrated Players
Alok Industries              61,581      48.1%       27.8%     28.5%       5.2%      1.6%        4.5%
Arvind Ltd.*                 36,539      26.5%       13.1%     14.6%       3.7%     10.1%        5.9%
Vardhman                     29,996       9.4%       25.0%     12.5%      12.0%      1.8%        1.8%
Bombay Rayon                 19,388      23.5%       26.9%     26.0%      11.1%      8.5%        8.5%
Welspun India                18,602      18.4%       13.2%     16.5%       3.6%      4.2%        4.5%
Mid-Size Integrated Players
Nahar Spinning               12,277      17.6%       22.4%     -2.9%      10.1%      -9.9%      -9.9%
Mandhana Industries           6,526      20.0%       19.1%     20.3%       9.1%      7.6%        7.6%
Mudra Lifestyle               1,632     -50.3%       12.3%   -112.4%      -1.4%    -175.5%    -175.5%
Garment Focused Exporters
House of Pearl Fashions*     18,814      20.7%        0.8%      2.4%       0.7%      0.9%        0.9%
Gokaldas Exports              7,259     -13.7%       -2.9%     -0.1%      -7.3%     -11.2%     -10.5%
Celebrity Fashions            1,170     -13.3%       -4.5%      2.1%      -9.8%      -9.3%      -9.3%
Mean                                    15.7%       17.8%     15.4%       6.9%       5.0%       4.8%
KPR Mill*                    9,314      15.4%       25.0%     14.4%      11.7%       2.9%       2.9%

                           *Consolidated results
                           **Q3 MTM loss excluded as KPR has not taken it to make results comparable, for
                           Arvind exceptional profit on sale of JV stake in Arvind Brands excluded
                           Negative margins excluded from average calculation


                           Revenue growth at par, profitability marginally lower

                           KPR’s revenue growth was at par with peer group in 9mFY12. Its
                           EBITDA was 100 basis points lower than the peer average and PAT
                           margins were ~200basis points lower than the peer group.
                           Four out of eleven peers posted losses in the period and four others
                           witnessed a decline in profitability.



                           Valuation – ttm multiples at premium
                           KPR is trading at a premium as far as its ttm EV/EBITDA and P/E
                           multiples are concerned, on account of lower profitability.
                           However, its EV/Sales and P/B multiples are at a discount of 28%
                           and 44% with respect to the peer group average.




Four-S Research                                                                                         4
Company Update: KPR Mill                                    17 Apr’12

                     Company                   EV/Sales      EV/EBITDA      PE      P/B         D/E
                                                 (x)            (x)         (x)     (x)        Sep-11
                     Large Integrated Players
                     Alok Industries                   1.3            4.6     3.3     0.5          3.1
                     Arvind Ltd.                       0.9            6.5     7.8     1.2          1.5
                     Vardhman                          0.9            5.8     7.0     0.7          1.2
KPR trades at a
                     Bombay Rayon                      2.5        10.6      15.8      1.2          1.1
discount as far as
                     Welspun India                     0.8            5.1     NM      0.5          2.5
its P/B and EV/
                     Mid-Size Integrated Players
Sales multiples
                     Nahar Spinning                    0.8        35.1        NM      0.3          1.9
are concerned.
                     Mandhana Industries               1.5            8.2   12.5      2.2          1.6
                     Mudra Lifestyle                   1.9            NM      NM          NM      24.2
                     Garment Focused Exporters
                     House of Pearl Fashions           0.2            6.2     5.8     0.3          0.9
                     Gokaldas Exports                  0.6            NM      NM      0.9          1.0
                     Celebrity Fashions                0.9        50.6        NM          NM       NM
                     Mean                          1.1            6.7        8.7      0.9         1.6
                     KPR Mill                      0.8            7.7       61.2      0.5         1.2

                     Note: CMP as of 17th April 2012, Outstanding shares as on 31st march 2012, except for
                     Alok Industries.




                     Projections and Price Target
                     We revise the revenue and PAT for FY12 and 13
Estimates are        We have revised our estimates for KPR Mill in FY12 and FY13 taking
revised due to       the YTD performance and state’s power shortage into account.
unexpected
power issues in      While we had already projected a low margin of 4% for FY12, taking
Coimbatore           into account the cotton price volatility, unforeseen factors such as
                     rupee depreciation and state power shortage has further affected
                     YTD performance. Hence, we further reduce the FY12 projections.
                     As the TN State power shortage will take some time to resolve, and
                     wind-power will get efficient in monsoon season, we can expect first
                     quarter of FY13 also to be impacted. Hence, we have downward
                     revised FY13 as well.

                                                  FY12e                 FY13e        FY14e
                                       Revised Previous Var% Revised Previous Var% Added
                     Revenue (Rs. Mn)    12,755 14,003      -9% 16,165 17,743     -9% 19,757
                     EBITDA (Rs. Mn)      1,786      2,231 -20%  2,942     3,472 -15% 3,996
                     PAT (Rs. Mn)            332       566 -41%    931     1,367 -32% 1,839
                     EBITDA margin (%)      14.0      15.9        18.2      19.6        20.2
                     Net margin (%)           2.6       4.0         5.8       7.7         9.3

                     Fundamental growth drivers in place
                     Growth from higher value addition, increased exports
High-value Yarn      KPR has increased its yarn capacity by 60% with addition of high-
capacity addition    value compact yarn and melange yarn capacities. The compact yarn
of 60% will be a     unit has gone fully operational from 5th January, 2012. FY13e will
Four-S Research                                                                                          5
Company Update: KPR Mill                       17 Apr’12

key growth driver    have the full benefit of added capacity.
aided by
                     KPR has gained traction in exports with FY08-11 CAGR of 28% to
increased traction
in exports and       reach ~Rs 3bn by FY11 by mainly exporting garments. In 9mFY12, it
commencement of      has stepped up yarn exports as well, and achieved an exports growth
Sugar Mill           of 44.5% YoY. We expect the momentum to continue.
operations
                     KPR Sugar Mills will also commence operations from H2FY12.

                     State’s Power Situation to improve by June 2012
TN State has fast-   TANGEDCO expects the power deficit to be overcome once wind-mill
tracked many         generation increases from June 2012 onwards. Many new power
power projects,      projects, including the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project are
and expects to
                     expected to be commissioned this year.
resolve the
shortage             TN’s Chief Minister has also planned Udangudi Power Corporation’s
                     1,600MW project as a state government project and fast tracked it.

                     100% self-sufficiency in Power
With Co-Gen cum      While KPR is already meeting 75% of its power requirements through
Sugar Mill going     Wind-Mills, its Co-gen cum Sugar Mill will give it 100% power self-
operational in       sufficiency in FY13. This will help it save on power costs (power
FY13 sugar
                     tariffs are expected to be increased this year) and increase its
season, KPR will
                     utilization levels.
get year around
self-sufficiency     Compared to other peers, KPR will have a competitive advantage in
                     power.

                     Cotton costs have stabilized, expected to remain flat

                     World cotton prices have stabilized with Production expected to
                     surpass consumption in cotton season 2011-12. ICAC predicts world
                     cotton production to rise 7% YoY to 26.78MT in 2011-12 whereas
                     Global cotton mill use will remain stable at 23.73MT, significantly
                     lower than production.
                     As per Cotton Corporation of India, the area under cotton cultivation
                     will increase to 121.9 lakh hectares in 2011-12, an increase of 9.4%
                     YoY. Cotton Advisory Board predicts closing stock to increase by
                     14.5% in 2011-12 season at estimated production levels and
                     reduced mill consumption. Hence, cotton prices would face flat to
                     downward pressures.




Four-S Research                                                                         6
Company Update: KPR Mill                               17 Apr’12

                      40
                             33.9 34.5
                      35

                      30

                      25
Cotton prices are                          22.1 21.6

expected to be        20

stable going          15
forward                                                            8.4
                      10                                     6.9
                                                                          4.8   5.5
                       5

                       0
                             Production     Mill Use        Exports      Closing stock
                                             2010-11   2011-12

                    Source: Office of Textile Commissioner


                    Valuation and Price target
                    KPR is trading at a P/E of 3.3x and EV/ EBITDA of 3.9X its FY13
                    numbers, much lower than peer average of 8.7x and 6.7x,
                    respectively.
                    At current prices, KPR gives a strong dividend yield as well.

Valuations will     We expect valuations to move towards historical numbers of 8x P/E
restore to          and 5X, EV/ EBITDA as industry challenges are mitigated. With
historical levels   power situation expected to be normal from June 2012 onwards,
by end of FY13
                    stable cotton prices and increase of utilization to normal numbers,
                    we expect KPR to cross Rs 180 per share mark by March 2013.




Four-S Research                                                                                 7
Company Update: KPR Mill                         17 Apr’12


                           Financial Annexure

Profit & Loss Statement

                                 FY07    FY08    FY09    FY10     FY11    FY12E    FY13E      FY14E
Net Sales                        4,816   5,739   7,182   8,032   10,494   12,089   14,452    15,631
Other Operating Income             158     324     295     308      581      666      708         776
Revenue from Sugar Mill                                                             1,005      3,350
Revenue from Operations          4,974   6,064   7,477   8,340   11,074   12,755   16,165    19,757


(Increase) / Decrease In
Stock In Trade & WIP             (132)    (47)      14   (119)    (605)    (335)      116         58
Consumption of Raw Materials     3,175   3,888   5,231   5,171    7,243    8,745    9,615    10,366
Manufacturing Expenses             230     152     216     344      431      440      526         568
Power and Fuel expenses              -     193     236     261      336      575      609         442
Personnel Expenses                 161     315     493     609      821      915    1,066      1,119
Administrative & Other
Expenses                            51      46      55     274      163      288      226         245
Selling & Distribution
Expenses                           131     133     134     160      192      219      262         283
MTM expenses done in
Q2FY12                                                                       122
Expenses for Sugar Mill                                                               804      2680
Total Expenses                   3,615   4,679   6,380   6,699    8,581   10,969   13,224    15,761


EBITDA                           1,359   1,384   1,097   1,641    2,493    1,786    2,942     3,996


Depreciation                       364     470     560     705    1,257      952    1,311      1,316
EBIT                               995     914     537     936    1,236      834    1,631      2,680
Other Income                        16      88      29      31       21       49       84         109
Financial Expenses                 209     176     384     273      323      440      474         338


PBT                               802     826     183     693      934      443     1,241     2,451
Provision for Taxes                218      33      82     189      212      111      310         613
Profit after Tax before
Minority Interest                  584     793     101     504      722      332      931      1,839
Minorities Interest and Others       -       -       -       -        -        -        -


Reported Net Profit               584     793     101     504      722      332      931       1,839
                                                                                            (Rs mn)




Four-S Research                                                                               8
Company Update: KPR Mill                        17 Apr’12




Common Size

                                       FY07    FY08    FY09    FY10    FY11   FY12E   FY13E   FY14E
Net sales                             96.8%   94.6%   96.1%   96.3%   94.8%   94.8%   89.4%   79.1%
Other Operating Income                 3.2%   5.4%    3.9%    4.1%    5.2%     5.2%    4.4%    3.9%
Sugar Mill Income                                                                      6.2%   17.0%
Revenue from Operations               100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0
                                         %       %       %       %       %       %       %       %


(Increase) / Decrease In Stock In     -2.7%   -0.8%   0.2%    -1.4%   -5.5%   -2.6%    0.7%    0.3%
Trade
Consumption of Raw Materials          63.8%   64.1%   70.0%   62.0%   65.4%   68.6%   59.5%   52.5%
Manufacturing expenses                 4.6%   2.5%    2.9%    4.1%    3.9%     3.4%    3.3%    2.9%
Power and Fuel expenses                0.0%   3.2%    3.2%    3.1%    3.0%     4.5%    3.8%    2.2%
Personnel expenses                     3.2%   5.2%    6.6%    7.3%    7.4%     7.2%    6.6%    5.7%
Administrative & Other expenses        1.0%   0.8%    0.7%    3.3%    1.5%     2.3%    1.4%    1.2%
Selling & Distribution expenses        2.6%   2.2%    1.8%    1.9%    1.7%     1.7%    1.6%    1.4%
MTM expenses done in Q2FY12                                                    1.0%
Operational expenses for Sugar Mill                                                    5.0%   13.6%
Total Expenses                        72.7%   77.2%   85.3%   80.3%   77.5%   86.0%   81.8%   79.8%


EBITDA                                27.3%   22.8%   14.7%   19.7%   22.5%   14.0%   18.2%   20.2%
Depreciation                           7.3%   7.8%    7.5%    8.5%    11.3%    7.5%    8.1%    6.7%
EBIT                                  20.0%   15.1%   7.2%    11.2%   11.2%    6.5%   10.1%   13.6%
Other Income                           0.3%   1.5%    0.4%    0.4%    0.3%     0.6%    1.0%    1.3%
Financial Expenses                     4.2%   2.9%    5.1%    3.3%    2.9%     3.4%    2.9%    1.7%
Profit before tax                     16.1%   13.6%   2.4%    8.3%    8.4%     3.5%    7.7%   12.4%


Provision for taxes                    4.4%   0.5%    1.1%    2.3%    1.9%     0.9%    1.9%    3.1%
Profit after tax before minority      11.7%   13.1%   1.4%    6.0%    6.5%     2.6%    5.8%    9.3%
interest
Minorities Interest and others         0.0%   0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
Reported net profit                   11.7%   13.1%   1.4%    6.0%    6.5%     2.6%    5.8%    9.3%




Four-S Research                                                                                9
Company Update: KPR Mill                             17 Apr’12

Balance Sheet

                            FY07     FY08     FY09     FY10     FY11    FY12E    FY13E     FY14E
Share Capital                 318      377      377      377      527      556      556      556
Reserves and Surplus        3,009    4,711    4,722    4,985    5,437    5,581    6,280     7,843
Total equity capital        3,327    5,087    5,099    5,362    5,964    6,137    6,836     8,399


Secured Loans               3,938    6,032    5,118    4,392    7,130    9,312    8,381     5,881
Unsecured Loans               225      212      190      158      122      145      173      188
Deferred Tax Liability        317      337      396      534      419      177      496      981
Total Liabilities           7,807   11,669   10,803   10,446   13,634   15,772   15,887   15,448


Goodwill                        -        -        -        -        -        7        7        7
Gross Block                 6,053    9,494    9,924   10,104   11,764   13,918   17,114    17,363
  Less: Depreciation          698    1,160    1,719    2,414    3,620    4,572    5,883     7,199
Net Fixed Assets            5,355    8,333    8,206    7,690    8,144    9,346   11,231    10,165
Work-in-progress            1,328      136        3      255    1,775    2,557        -         -
Investments                     3       50        -        -        -      600      600      600


Inventory                   1,219    1,679    2,070    1,360    2,944    2,625    3,138     3,394
Debtors                       599      942    1,184    1,161    1,252    1,474    1,762     1,905
Cash and Bank Balance         272      594      462      522      397      110      102       304
Other Current Assets          133      182      229      149       70      158      158      153
Loans and Advances            383      562      551      668      564      631      634      614
Total Current Assets        2,607    3,959    4,497    3,860    5,226    4,997    5,796     6,376


Current Liabilities         1,365      581    1,792    1,117    1,372    1,577    1,584     1,536
Provision                     121      228      112      242      139      158      158      154
Total Current Liabilities   1,486      809    1,903    1,359    1,511    1,735    1,743     1,690
Net Current Assets          1,121    3,150    2,594    2,501    3,715    3,262    4,049     4,676


Miscellaneous expenditure       -        -        -        -        -        0        -         -


Total Assets                7,807   11,669   10,803   10,446   13,634   15,772   15,887 15,448
                                                                                     (Rs mn)




Four-S Research                                                                                     10
Company Update: KPR Mill                           17 Apr’12



Cash Flow Statement

                                       FY08      FY09       FY10     FY11      FY12E    FY13E      FY14E
Net Profit/(Loss) before Tax             826       183        693      934       443     1,241      2,451
Add Depreciation                         470       560        705    1,257       952     1,311      1,316
Loss on Fixed Assets                       6          1         3        20        -         -          -
Interest Expense                         176       384        273      323       440       474        338
Interest Income                         (49)      (21)       (20)     (15)         -         -          -
Dividend Income                         (10)        (4)      (10)       (6)        -         -          -

(Increase)/Decrease in
Trade/Other Receivables                (343)     (242)         4      (92)      (221)    (288)      (144)
(Increase)/ Decrease in Loans and
Advances                               (177)        11       (97)      (38)      (67)      (3)         19
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventories     (460)     (391)        710   (1,584)       319    (513)      (256)
(Increase)/Decrease in Other
Current Assets                          (48)      (78)        80        77       (88)       (1)           5
Increase/(Decrease) in
Trade/Other Payables                   (784)     1,211      (674)     (55)        224        8       (53)
Direct Taxes Paid                       (10)      (65)       (94)    (186)      (352)        9      (129)
Increase/(Decrease) in Deferred
Tax Liabilities                          20         59       138     (115)      (241)      319          484
Operating Cash-flow- A                (403)     1,547      1,574       638     1,649     2,238      3,548
Purchase of Fixed Assets             (2,282)     (302)      (454)   (2,815)   (2,944)     (639)      (249)
Proceeds from Sale of Fixed Assets        20         2         10        26         -         -          -
Purchase of Investments                 (50)         -    (2,745)   (3,625)     (600)         -          -
Proceeds from Sale of Investment           5        50      2,745     3,625         -         -          -
Dividend Received                          7         4         10         6         -         -          -
Interest Received                         49        21         20        17         -         -          -
Cash from Investing activities-                                     (2,767
B                                    (2,250)    (225)      (414)          )   (3,544)   (639)      (249)
Proceeds from Share Capital               59         -                    -        29       -          -
Proceeds from Securities Premium       1,129       (1)
(Repayment)/ Proceeds of Secured
Loans                                  2,094     (914)      (707)    2,715      2,183    (931)    (2,500)
(Repayment)/ Proceeds of
Unsecured Loans                         (13)      (22)       (32)     (37)         24        28         14
Interest Paid                          (176)     (384)      (273)    (301)      (440)     (474)      (338)
Dividend Paid                           (85)     (113)       (75)    (320)      (161)     (237)      (274)
Tax on Dividend                         (32)      (19)       (13)     (53)       (27)      (39)       (46)
Cash from Financing activities-                                                         (1,653     (3,143
C                                     2,975    (1,453)    (1,100)    2,004     1,608          )          )
Change in Cash= A+B+C                   322      (132)        60     (125)      (287)     (54)          155
Opening Balance                         272        594       462       522        397      110           56
Closing Balance                         594       462        522      397        110        56          211
                                                                                                  (Rs mn)




Four-S Research                                                                                    11
Company Update: KPR Mill                    17 Apr’12

Ratios
                      FY07    FY08    FY09      FY10    FY11   FY12E     FY13E    FY14E
Per Share
Numbers
EPS                           21.1      2.7     13.4    19.0      8.5     24.4      48.5
CEPS                          33.5     17.5     32.1    52.3     33.8     59.2      83.4
DPS                            5.0      2.0      5.5     6.0      4.0      5.0       6.0
Adjusted Book
Value per Share              135.0    135.3    142.3   154.3    158.9    177.4     218.9

Profitability
EBITDA margin        27.3%   22.8%   14.7%    19.7%    22.5%   14.0%    18.2%     20.2%

Pre-tax margin       16.1%   13.6%    2.4%     8.3%     8.4%    3.5%     7.7%     12.4%
Net margin           11.7%   13.1%    1.4%     6.0%     6.5%    2.6%     5.8%      9.3%
ROAE                 21.0%   18.9%    2.0%     9.6%    12.8%    5.5%    14.3%     24.1%
ROACE                15.5%    9.7%    4.9%     9.2%    10.7%    5.8%    10.5%     18.0%

Growth
Revenue growth           -   21.9%   23.3%    11.5%    32.8%   15.2%    26.7%     22.2%

EBITDA growth            -   1.9%    -20.8%    49.6%   51.9%   -28.3%    64.7%    35.8%
Net profit growth        -   3.0%    -77.9%   278.9%   43.2%   -54.0%   179.9%    97.5%

Turnover
Net Asset turnover     0.6     0.6      0.6      0.7     0.9      0.8      1.0         1.2
Net Working Cap
turnover               6.2     2.8      2.6      3.3     3.6      3.7      4.4       4.6
Debtors turnover       9.8     7.9      7.0      7.1     9.2      9.4     10.0      10.8
Debtor Days             37      46       52       51      40       39       37        34
Inventory turnover       5     4.2      4.0      4.9     5.1      4.6      5.6       6.0
Inventory Days          75      87       92       75      71       80       65        60
Payables turnover        4       6        6        6       9        9       10        13
Payables Days           93      59       58       64      41       42       36        29

Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio          1.8     4.9      2.4      2.8     3.5      2.9      3.3         3.7
Quick Ratio            0.9     2.8      1.3      1.8     1.5      1.4      1.5         1.7
Cash Ratio             0.1     0.2      0.7      0.2     0.4      0.3      0.1         0.0

Solvency
Debt Equity            1.3     1.2      1.0      0.8     1.3      1.6      1.3         0.8
Leverage Ratio         2.3     2.3      2.1      1.9     2.3      2.6      2.4         1.9
Net Debt / EBITDA      2.9     4.1      4.4      2.5     2.8      5.3      2.9         1.5
Interest Coverage      4.8     5.2      1.4      3.4     3.8      1.9      3.4         7.9

Valuation Ratios
P/E                    NM      4.6      7.7      8.3     9.7      9.5      3.3         1.7
P/BV                   NM      0.7      0.2      0.8     1.2      0.5      0.5         0.4
EV/EBITDA              5.3     6.7      5.1      5.0     5.5      6.9      3.9         2.2
EV/Sales               1.5     1.5      0.8      1.0     1.2      1.0      0.7         0.5

Dividend Payout               24%      75%      41%     31%      47%      21%       12%
Dividend Yield               5.2%     9.7%     4.9%    3.3%     4.9%     6.2%      7.4%
                                                                                 (Rs mn)




Four-S Research                                                                   12
Company Update: KPR Mill                        17 Apr’12




About Four-S Services
Founded in 2002, Four-S Services is a financial boutique providing Research, Financial
Consulting and Investment Banking services. We have executed more than 100+ mandates
across diverse range of industries for Indian as well as global companies, investment firms
and private equity and venture capital firms.
Our clients value our focused, actionable advice which is based on deep domain expertise in
Education, Financial Services, Media & Entertainment, Healthcare, Consumer Goods,
Automotive, Energy, Logistics and Manufacturing. For further information on the company
please visit www.four-s.com


Disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but
is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation,
warranty, guarantee or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to the fairness,
accuracy or completeness of any information, projections or opinions contained in this
document. Four-S Services Pvt. Ltd. will not accept any liability whatsoever, with respect to
the use of this document or its contents. This Company commissioned document has been
distributed for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of any offer
or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. This document shall not form the
basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment
whatsoever. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others.
Four-S may from time to time solicit from, or perform consulting or other services for any
company mentioned in this document.



For further details/clarifications please contact:

Rupam Prasad                                 Ajay Jindal

Rupam.prasad@four-s.com                      Ajay.jindal@four-s.com

Tel: +91-124-4251442                         Tel: +91-22-42153659

Four-S offices:

Delhi Office: 214, Udyog Vihar Phase I, Gurgaon – 122016. Tel: +91-124- 425 1442

Mumbai office: 101, Nirman Kendra, Opposite Star TV, Off Dr E Moses Road, Mahalaxmi,
Mumbai – 400011 Tel: 022 - 42153659




Four-S Research                                                                        13

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Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012

  • 1. C O M P A N Y U P D A T E India 17 Apr 2012 KPR Mill Rs 80.85 Sector: Textile Underpowered, but ready to soar xxxo... KPR Mill has braved industry headwinds to report 15.4% growth in BSE Sensex 17,358 9mFY12 revenues, EBITDA margin of 14.38% and PAT margin of 2.9%. Nifty 5,290 52 week high (Rs) 194 Tamil Nadu’s power crisis affected output in Q3FY12, resulting in reduced 52 week low (Rs) 77 utilization and delay in operations of new high-value compact yarn spinning facilities, but the company managed to stay in black. Compact Yarn capacity fully operational from January 5, 2012 Bloomberg KPR.IN KPR’s new capacity is fully operational from January 5, 2012, increasing NSE Code KPRMILL the Yarn capacity to 90,000MT p.a. BSE Code 532889 Power situation to improve after June Equity Shares 37.68 The power deficit in the state may continue till June when monsoon (m) Face Value (Rs) 10 arrives, and wind-mills produce power. Henceforth, we expect the Market Cap 3,047 utilization to be in line with historical numbers. The state government has (Rs mn) already fast-tracked power projects. We have revised downward revenue and PAT estimates for FY12. FY13 has Share Price Performance % also been reduced on account of expected utilization drop due to state’s power issues in Q1. KPR Sensex 1 week -1.3 0.7 A cocktail of right fundamentals and future growth potential 1 month -4.0 -0.6 With yarn capacity now increased by 60% to 90,000MT, KPR is poised to 3 month -10.0 5.4 reap rich benefits from textile demand revival. 6 month -15.3 2.0  KPR has the healthiest balance sheet among peers even with 1 year -56.8 -10.5 recent capacity expansion, modernization and debt for Sugar Mill.  Growth drivers for FY13: FY13 will benefit from new high value- add Compact Yarn capacity. Power self-sufficiency by H2FY13 will Shareholding Pattern (Mar’11)% save costs and ensure operations continuity year round. Sugar mill Promoters 74.48 operations will commence in Q3FY13. Textile sector will witness FIIs/ FVCIs 8.88 revival as cotton prices have now stabilized worldwide. DII 1.08 We have revised our Mar’13 price target from Rs 240 to Rs 180, as Corporates 3.36 power shortage will result in underperformance in Q1FY13 too, Others 12.5 lowering the FY13 EBITDA and PAT margins. Despite challenges in FY12, KPR remains a quality stock, and amongst the best picks in the textile space. FY13 will see profit revival and FY14 could see return to full profitability. At a likely FY14 PE <2x, and D/E of <1x, KPR offers value at current price. FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12e FY'13e FY'14e Revenue (Rs. Mn) 4,974 6,064 7,477 8,340 11,074 12,755 16,165 19,757 EBITDA (Rs. Mn) 1,359 1,384 1,097 1,641 2,493 1,786 2,942 3,996 PAT (Rs. Mn) 584 793 101 504 722 332 931 1,839 EBITDA margin (%) 27 23 15 20 23 14.0 18 20 Net margin (%) 11.7 13.1 1.4 6.0 6.5 2.6 5.8 9.3 ROE (%) 21 19 2 10 13 5 14 24 ROCE (%) 15 10 5 9 11 6 11 18 P/E Ratio (x) NL 4.6 7.7 8.3 9.7 9.5 3.3 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 6.7 5.1 5.0 5.5 6.9 3.9 2.2 D/E 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.8 Dividend Yield (%) NL 5.2 9.7 4.9 3.3 4.9 6.2 7.4 NL = Not Listed Four-s reports are available on BLOOMBERG, Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Market Publishers
  • 2. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 Performance Update Underpowered in Q3FY12 Tamil Nadu power woes affect performance TN power issues Tamil Nadu is facing power shortage of ~4000MW leading to power have impacted cuts of as high as five-six hours in daytime in areas like Coimbatore. Coimbatore-based This has impacted the operations of manufacturing industries. manufacturing facilities Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Ltd (TANGEDCO) estimates power demand in Tamil Nadu to be around 11,500-12,500MW growing by 10% on back of industrial capacity additions. The Supply is pegged to be around 8,500MW at present, leaving the state with a shortage of upto 4,000MW. TANGEDCO has started a day per week as power holiday hitting the Coimbatore textile industry with an estimated Rs 3bn production loss per day. TN’s Distribution utility has demanded a 64% rise in energy charges for FY13. Q3 impacted due to reduced utilization Q3FY12 utilization KPR’s Q3 performance was affected as utilization reduced to 85% reduced to 85% from 90% levels. Also, KPR had to bear additional power cost of Rs due to power 45mn has it sought to buy merchant power to partially fill the supply shortage gap. KPR Mill Q3FY'12 Q2FY'12 Q-o-Q Q3FY'11 Y-0-Y Operating Income 2,820 3,401 -17% 3,037 -7% Raw Material costs 1,873 2,443 -23% 1,819 3% Employee Cost 206 181 14% 253 -19% Other Expenditure 310 312 -1% 262 19% EBITDA 430 465 -7% 703 -39% EBITDA Margin% 15.3% 13.7% 23.1% Depreciation 255 247 3% 191 34% EBIT 175 218 -20% 512 -66% Interest 133 122 9% 52 155% Other Income 13 12 12% 6 136% PBT 55 108 -49% 465 -88% Tax 1 (2) -133% 129 -99% PAT 54 110 -51% 336 -84% PAT Margin % 1.9% 3.2% 11.1% Rs Mn Q3 revenue declined 17% QoQ and PAT declined 51% QoQ. If we exclude the MTM loss of Rs 122.4mn taken as other expenditure in Q2, Q2FY12 EBITDA margin be 17.3%. Hence on a QoQ basis, there was a decline in EBITDA margin as well. Exports growing strongly YTD FY12 revenues boosted by exports YTD revenues up KPR achieved a nine monthly revenue growth of 15% YoY, at par 15% YoY, Margins with peer average. KPR’s exports increased 44.5% YoY and Four-S Research 2
  • 3. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 impacted due to accounted for 35% of revenues compared to 27% in corresponding industry issues period last year. While Garment exports increased 14% YoY, KPR stepped up exports of other products – Yarn and Fabrics in YTD FY12. KPR Mill 9M FY'11 9M FY'12 YoY Operating Income 8,072 9,314 15% Raw Material costs 4,745 6,694 41% Employee Cost 595 610 3% Other Expenditure 716 671 -6% EBITDA 2,016 1,339 -34% EBITDA Margin% 25.0% 14.4% Depreciation 548 734 34% EBIT 1,468 605 -59% Interest 172 321 87% Other Income 14 37 166% PBT 1,310 320 -76% Tax 367 50 -86% PAT 942 270 -71% PAT Margin % 11.7% 2.9% Cotton situation normalises While the 9m results show high cotton costs, this is more an impact of Q1, when KPR took a Rs 278mn write-off due to sharp drop in cotton prices. Since then, cotton prices trended towards to historical trading range. Going forward, we expect raw material cost/sales to come down to normal range of around 65%. For company yarn, the ratio would be even better since it enjoys higher margins. KPR has also taken an MTM expense of Rs 122.4mn in Q2FY12 due to rupee depreciation. The depreciation costs are higher on YoY basis as KPR revised the depreciation charges on windmill after reassessment of useful life in Q4FY11. Monthly Average Prices of Benchmark Cotton Variety – Shankar 6/4 Steep fall in cotton prices in Q1 resulted in inventory write- down of Rs 278mn. Prices have maintained at stable levels, thereafter. Source: Textile Corporation of India Four-S Research 3
  • 4. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 High raw material prices lower industry profitability Raw Material The higher raw material costs have lowered textile industry price volatility profitability in this financial year. Average EBITDA margin of peer affected entire group declined from 17.8% last year to 15.4% in 9mFY12. industry. Company Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA Margin (%) Net Margin (%) 9mFY'12 9mFY'12 9mFY'12 YoY 9mFY'11 9mFY'12 9mFY'11 reported Adj Large Integrated Players Alok Industries 61,581 48.1% 27.8% 28.5% 5.2% 1.6% 4.5% Arvind Ltd.* 36,539 26.5% 13.1% 14.6% 3.7% 10.1% 5.9% Vardhman 29,996 9.4% 25.0% 12.5% 12.0% 1.8% 1.8% Bombay Rayon 19,388 23.5% 26.9% 26.0% 11.1% 8.5% 8.5% Welspun India 18,602 18.4% 13.2% 16.5% 3.6% 4.2% 4.5% Mid-Size Integrated Players Nahar Spinning 12,277 17.6% 22.4% -2.9% 10.1% -9.9% -9.9% Mandhana Industries 6,526 20.0% 19.1% 20.3% 9.1% 7.6% 7.6% Mudra Lifestyle 1,632 -50.3% 12.3% -112.4% -1.4% -175.5% -175.5% Garment Focused Exporters House of Pearl Fashions* 18,814 20.7% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% Gokaldas Exports 7,259 -13.7% -2.9% -0.1% -7.3% -11.2% -10.5% Celebrity Fashions 1,170 -13.3% -4.5% 2.1% -9.8% -9.3% -9.3% Mean 15.7% 17.8% 15.4% 6.9% 5.0% 4.8% KPR Mill* 9,314 15.4% 25.0% 14.4% 11.7% 2.9% 2.9% *Consolidated results **Q3 MTM loss excluded as KPR has not taken it to make results comparable, for Arvind exceptional profit on sale of JV stake in Arvind Brands excluded Negative margins excluded from average calculation Revenue growth at par, profitability marginally lower KPR’s revenue growth was at par with peer group in 9mFY12. Its EBITDA was 100 basis points lower than the peer average and PAT margins were ~200basis points lower than the peer group. Four out of eleven peers posted losses in the period and four others witnessed a decline in profitability. Valuation – ttm multiples at premium KPR is trading at a premium as far as its ttm EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples are concerned, on account of lower profitability. However, its EV/Sales and P/B multiples are at a discount of 28% and 44% with respect to the peer group average. Four-S Research 4
  • 5. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 Company EV/Sales EV/EBITDA PE P/B D/E (x) (x) (x) (x) Sep-11 Large Integrated Players Alok Industries 1.3 4.6 3.3 0.5 3.1 Arvind Ltd. 0.9 6.5 7.8 1.2 1.5 Vardhman 0.9 5.8 7.0 0.7 1.2 KPR trades at a Bombay Rayon 2.5 10.6 15.8 1.2 1.1 discount as far as Welspun India 0.8 5.1 NM 0.5 2.5 its P/B and EV/ Mid-Size Integrated Players Sales multiples Nahar Spinning 0.8 35.1 NM 0.3 1.9 are concerned. Mandhana Industries 1.5 8.2 12.5 2.2 1.6 Mudra Lifestyle 1.9 NM NM NM 24.2 Garment Focused Exporters House of Pearl Fashions 0.2 6.2 5.8 0.3 0.9 Gokaldas Exports 0.6 NM NM 0.9 1.0 Celebrity Fashions 0.9 50.6 NM NM NM Mean 1.1 6.7 8.7 0.9 1.6 KPR Mill 0.8 7.7 61.2 0.5 1.2 Note: CMP as of 17th April 2012, Outstanding shares as on 31st march 2012, except for Alok Industries. Projections and Price Target We revise the revenue and PAT for FY12 and 13 Estimates are We have revised our estimates for KPR Mill in FY12 and FY13 taking revised due to the YTD performance and state’s power shortage into account. unexpected power issues in While we had already projected a low margin of 4% for FY12, taking Coimbatore into account the cotton price volatility, unforeseen factors such as rupee depreciation and state power shortage has further affected YTD performance. Hence, we further reduce the FY12 projections. As the TN State power shortage will take some time to resolve, and wind-power will get efficient in monsoon season, we can expect first quarter of FY13 also to be impacted. Hence, we have downward revised FY13 as well. FY12e FY13e FY14e Revised Previous Var% Revised Previous Var% Added Revenue (Rs. Mn) 12,755 14,003 -9% 16,165 17,743 -9% 19,757 EBITDA (Rs. Mn) 1,786 2,231 -20% 2,942 3,472 -15% 3,996 PAT (Rs. Mn) 332 566 -41% 931 1,367 -32% 1,839 EBITDA margin (%) 14.0 15.9 18.2 19.6 20.2 Net margin (%) 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.7 9.3 Fundamental growth drivers in place Growth from higher value addition, increased exports High-value Yarn KPR has increased its yarn capacity by 60% with addition of high- capacity addition value compact yarn and melange yarn capacities. The compact yarn of 60% will be a unit has gone fully operational from 5th January, 2012. FY13e will Four-S Research 5
  • 6. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 key growth driver have the full benefit of added capacity. aided by KPR has gained traction in exports with FY08-11 CAGR of 28% to increased traction in exports and reach ~Rs 3bn by FY11 by mainly exporting garments. In 9mFY12, it commencement of has stepped up yarn exports as well, and achieved an exports growth Sugar Mill of 44.5% YoY. We expect the momentum to continue. operations KPR Sugar Mills will also commence operations from H2FY12. State’s Power Situation to improve by June 2012 TN State has fast- TANGEDCO expects the power deficit to be overcome once wind-mill tracked many generation increases from June 2012 onwards. Many new power power projects, projects, including the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project are and expects to expected to be commissioned this year. resolve the shortage TN’s Chief Minister has also planned Udangudi Power Corporation’s 1,600MW project as a state government project and fast tracked it. 100% self-sufficiency in Power With Co-Gen cum While KPR is already meeting 75% of its power requirements through Sugar Mill going Wind-Mills, its Co-gen cum Sugar Mill will give it 100% power self- operational in sufficiency in FY13. This will help it save on power costs (power FY13 sugar tariffs are expected to be increased this year) and increase its season, KPR will utilization levels. get year around self-sufficiency Compared to other peers, KPR will have a competitive advantage in power. Cotton costs have stabilized, expected to remain flat World cotton prices have stabilized with Production expected to surpass consumption in cotton season 2011-12. ICAC predicts world cotton production to rise 7% YoY to 26.78MT in 2011-12 whereas Global cotton mill use will remain stable at 23.73MT, significantly lower than production. As per Cotton Corporation of India, the area under cotton cultivation will increase to 121.9 lakh hectares in 2011-12, an increase of 9.4% YoY. Cotton Advisory Board predicts closing stock to increase by 14.5% in 2011-12 season at estimated production levels and reduced mill consumption. Hence, cotton prices would face flat to downward pressures. Four-S Research 6
  • 7. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 40 33.9 34.5 35 30 25 Cotton prices are 22.1 21.6 expected to be 20 stable going 15 forward 8.4 10 6.9 4.8 5.5 5 0 Production Mill Use Exports Closing stock 2010-11 2011-12 Source: Office of Textile Commissioner Valuation and Price target KPR is trading at a P/E of 3.3x and EV/ EBITDA of 3.9X its FY13 numbers, much lower than peer average of 8.7x and 6.7x, respectively. At current prices, KPR gives a strong dividend yield as well. Valuations will We expect valuations to move towards historical numbers of 8x P/E restore to and 5X, EV/ EBITDA as industry challenges are mitigated. With historical levels power situation expected to be normal from June 2012 onwards, by end of FY13 stable cotton prices and increase of utilization to normal numbers, we expect KPR to cross Rs 180 per share mark by March 2013. Four-S Research 7
  • 8. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 Financial Annexure Profit & Loss Statement FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E Net Sales 4,816 5,739 7,182 8,032 10,494 12,089 14,452 15,631 Other Operating Income 158 324 295 308 581 666 708 776 Revenue from Sugar Mill 1,005 3,350 Revenue from Operations 4,974 6,064 7,477 8,340 11,074 12,755 16,165 19,757 (Increase) / Decrease In Stock In Trade & WIP (132) (47) 14 (119) (605) (335) 116 58 Consumption of Raw Materials 3,175 3,888 5,231 5,171 7,243 8,745 9,615 10,366 Manufacturing Expenses 230 152 216 344 431 440 526 568 Power and Fuel expenses - 193 236 261 336 575 609 442 Personnel Expenses 161 315 493 609 821 915 1,066 1,119 Administrative & Other Expenses 51 46 55 274 163 288 226 245 Selling & Distribution Expenses 131 133 134 160 192 219 262 283 MTM expenses done in Q2FY12 122 Expenses for Sugar Mill 804 2680 Total Expenses 3,615 4,679 6,380 6,699 8,581 10,969 13,224 15,761 EBITDA 1,359 1,384 1,097 1,641 2,493 1,786 2,942 3,996 Depreciation 364 470 560 705 1,257 952 1,311 1,316 EBIT 995 914 537 936 1,236 834 1,631 2,680 Other Income 16 88 29 31 21 49 84 109 Financial Expenses 209 176 384 273 323 440 474 338 PBT 802 826 183 693 934 443 1,241 2,451 Provision for Taxes 218 33 82 189 212 111 310 613 Profit after Tax before Minority Interest 584 793 101 504 722 332 931 1,839 Minorities Interest and Others - - - - - - - Reported Net Profit 584 793 101 504 722 332 931 1,839 (Rs mn) Four-S Research 8
  • 9. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 Common Size FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E Net sales 96.8% 94.6% 96.1% 96.3% 94.8% 94.8% 89.4% 79.1% Other Operating Income 3.2% 5.4% 3.9% 4.1% 5.2% 5.2% 4.4% 3.9% Sugar Mill Income 6.2% 17.0% Revenue from Operations 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 % % % % % % % % (Increase) / Decrease In Stock In -2.7% -0.8% 0.2% -1.4% -5.5% -2.6% 0.7% 0.3% Trade Consumption of Raw Materials 63.8% 64.1% 70.0% 62.0% 65.4% 68.6% 59.5% 52.5% Manufacturing expenses 4.6% 2.5% 2.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% Power and Fuel expenses 0.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 4.5% 3.8% 2.2% Personnel expenses 3.2% 5.2% 6.6% 7.3% 7.4% 7.2% 6.6% 5.7% Administrative & Other expenses 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 3.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.4% 1.2% Selling & Distribution expenses 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% MTM expenses done in Q2FY12 1.0% Operational expenses for Sugar Mill 5.0% 13.6% Total Expenses 72.7% 77.2% 85.3% 80.3% 77.5% 86.0% 81.8% 79.8% EBITDA 27.3% 22.8% 14.7% 19.7% 22.5% 14.0% 18.2% 20.2% Depreciation 7.3% 7.8% 7.5% 8.5% 11.3% 7.5% 8.1% 6.7% EBIT 20.0% 15.1% 7.2% 11.2% 11.2% 6.5% 10.1% 13.6% Other Income 0.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% Financial Expenses 4.2% 2.9% 5.1% 3.3% 2.9% 3.4% 2.9% 1.7% Profit before tax 16.1% 13.6% 2.4% 8.3% 8.4% 3.5% 7.7% 12.4% Provision for taxes 4.4% 0.5% 1.1% 2.3% 1.9% 0.9% 1.9% 3.1% Profit after tax before minority 11.7% 13.1% 1.4% 6.0% 6.5% 2.6% 5.8% 9.3% interest Minorities Interest and others 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reported net profit 11.7% 13.1% 1.4% 6.0% 6.5% 2.6% 5.8% 9.3% Four-S Research 9
  • 10. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 Balance Sheet FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E Share Capital 318 377 377 377 527 556 556 556 Reserves and Surplus 3,009 4,711 4,722 4,985 5,437 5,581 6,280 7,843 Total equity capital 3,327 5,087 5,099 5,362 5,964 6,137 6,836 8,399 Secured Loans 3,938 6,032 5,118 4,392 7,130 9,312 8,381 5,881 Unsecured Loans 225 212 190 158 122 145 173 188 Deferred Tax Liability 317 337 396 534 419 177 496 981 Total Liabilities 7,807 11,669 10,803 10,446 13,634 15,772 15,887 15,448 Goodwill - - - - - 7 7 7 Gross Block 6,053 9,494 9,924 10,104 11,764 13,918 17,114 17,363 Less: Depreciation 698 1,160 1,719 2,414 3,620 4,572 5,883 7,199 Net Fixed Assets 5,355 8,333 8,206 7,690 8,144 9,346 11,231 10,165 Work-in-progress 1,328 136 3 255 1,775 2,557 - - Investments 3 50 - - - 600 600 600 Inventory 1,219 1,679 2,070 1,360 2,944 2,625 3,138 3,394 Debtors 599 942 1,184 1,161 1,252 1,474 1,762 1,905 Cash and Bank Balance 272 594 462 522 397 110 102 304 Other Current Assets 133 182 229 149 70 158 158 153 Loans and Advances 383 562 551 668 564 631 634 614 Total Current Assets 2,607 3,959 4,497 3,860 5,226 4,997 5,796 6,376 Current Liabilities 1,365 581 1,792 1,117 1,372 1,577 1,584 1,536 Provision 121 228 112 242 139 158 158 154 Total Current Liabilities 1,486 809 1,903 1,359 1,511 1,735 1,743 1,690 Net Current Assets 1,121 3,150 2,594 2,501 3,715 3,262 4,049 4,676 Miscellaneous expenditure - - - - - 0 - - Total Assets 7,807 11,669 10,803 10,446 13,634 15,772 15,887 15,448 (Rs mn) Four-S Research 10
  • 11. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 Cash Flow Statement FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E Net Profit/(Loss) before Tax 826 183 693 934 443 1,241 2,451 Add Depreciation 470 560 705 1,257 952 1,311 1,316 Loss on Fixed Assets 6 1 3 20 - - - Interest Expense 176 384 273 323 440 474 338 Interest Income (49) (21) (20) (15) - - - Dividend Income (10) (4) (10) (6) - - - (Increase)/Decrease in Trade/Other Receivables (343) (242) 4 (92) (221) (288) (144) (Increase)/ Decrease in Loans and Advances (177) 11 (97) (38) (67) (3) 19 (Increase)/Decrease in Inventories (460) (391) 710 (1,584) 319 (513) (256) (Increase)/Decrease in Other Current Assets (48) (78) 80 77 (88) (1) 5 Increase/(Decrease) in Trade/Other Payables (784) 1,211 (674) (55) 224 8 (53) Direct Taxes Paid (10) (65) (94) (186) (352) 9 (129) Increase/(Decrease) in Deferred Tax Liabilities 20 59 138 (115) (241) 319 484 Operating Cash-flow- A (403) 1,547 1,574 638 1,649 2,238 3,548 Purchase of Fixed Assets (2,282) (302) (454) (2,815) (2,944) (639) (249) Proceeds from Sale of Fixed Assets 20 2 10 26 - - - Purchase of Investments (50) - (2,745) (3,625) (600) - - Proceeds from Sale of Investment 5 50 2,745 3,625 - - - Dividend Received 7 4 10 6 - - - Interest Received 49 21 20 17 - - - Cash from Investing activities- (2,767 B (2,250) (225) (414) ) (3,544) (639) (249) Proceeds from Share Capital 59 - - 29 - - Proceeds from Securities Premium 1,129 (1) (Repayment)/ Proceeds of Secured Loans 2,094 (914) (707) 2,715 2,183 (931) (2,500) (Repayment)/ Proceeds of Unsecured Loans (13) (22) (32) (37) 24 28 14 Interest Paid (176) (384) (273) (301) (440) (474) (338) Dividend Paid (85) (113) (75) (320) (161) (237) (274) Tax on Dividend (32) (19) (13) (53) (27) (39) (46) Cash from Financing activities- (1,653 (3,143 C 2,975 (1,453) (1,100) 2,004 1,608 ) ) Change in Cash= A+B+C 322 (132) 60 (125) (287) (54) 155 Opening Balance 272 594 462 522 397 110 56 Closing Balance 594 462 522 397 110 56 211 (Rs mn) Four-S Research 11
  • 12. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 Ratios FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E Per Share Numbers EPS 21.1 2.7 13.4 19.0 8.5 24.4 48.5 CEPS 33.5 17.5 32.1 52.3 33.8 59.2 83.4 DPS 5.0 2.0 5.5 6.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Adjusted Book Value per Share 135.0 135.3 142.3 154.3 158.9 177.4 218.9 Profitability EBITDA margin 27.3% 22.8% 14.7% 19.7% 22.5% 14.0% 18.2% 20.2% Pre-tax margin 16.1% 13.6% 2.4% 8.3% 8.4% 3.5% 7.7% 12.4% Net margin 11.7% 13.1% 1.4% 6.0% 6.5% 2.6% 5.8% 9.3% ROAE 21.0% 18.9% 2.0% 9.6% 12.8% 5.5% 14.3% 24.1% ROACE 15.5% 9.7% 4.9% 9.2% 10.7% 5.8% 10.5% 18.0% Growth Revenue growth - 21.9% 23.3% 11.5% 32.8% 15.2% 26.7% 22.2% EBITDA growth - 1.9% -20.8% 49.6% 51.9% -28.3% 64.7% 35.8% Net profit growth - 3.0% -77.9% 278.9% 43.2% -54.0% 179.9% 97.5% Turnover Net Asset turnover 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 Net Working Cap turnover 6.2 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.7 4.4 4.6 Debtors turnover 9.8 7.9 7.0 7.1 9.2 9.4 10.0 10.8 Debtor Days 37 46 52 51 40 39 37 34 Inventory turnover 5 4.2 4.0 4.9 5.1 4.6 5.6 6.0 Inventory Days 75 87 92 75 71 80 65 60 Payables turnover 4 6 6 6 9 9 10 13 Payables Days 93 59 58 64 41 42 36 29 Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio 1.8 4.9 2.4 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 Quick Ratio 0.9 2.8 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 Cash Ratio 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 Solvency Debt Equity 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.8 Leverage Ratio 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 1.9 Net Debt / EBITDA 2.9 4.1 4.4 2.5 2.8 5.3 2.9 1.5 Interest Coverage 4.8 5.2 1.4 3.4 3.8 1.9 3.4 7.9 Valuation Ratios P/E NM 4.6 7.7 8.3 9.7 9.5 3.3 1.7 P/BV NM 0.7 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 EV/EBITDA 5.3 6.7 5.1 5.0 5.5 6.9 3.9 2.2 EV/Sales 1.5 1.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 Dividend Payout 24% 75% 41% 31% 47% 21% 12% Dividend Yield 5.2% 9.7% 4.9% 3.3% 4.9% 6.2% 7.4% (Rs mn) Four-S Research 12
  • 13. Company Update: KPR Mill 17 Apr’12 About Four-S Services Founded in 2002, Four-S Services is a financial boutique providing Research, Financial Consulting and Investment Banking services. We have executed more than 100+ mandates across diverse range of industries for Indian as well as global companies, investment firms and private equity and venture capital firms. Our clients value our focused, actionable advice which is based on deep domain expertise in Education, Financial Services, Media & Entertainment, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Automotive, Energy, Logistics and Manufacturing. For further information on the company please visit www.four-s.com Disclaimer The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation, warranty, guarantee or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of any information, projections or opinions contained in this document. Four-S Services Pvt. Ltd. will not accept any liability whatsoever, with respect to the use of this document or its contents. This Company commissioned document has been distributed for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. This document shall not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. Four-S may from time to time solicit from, or perform consulting or other services for any company mentioned in this document. For further details/clarifications please contact: Rupam Prasad Ajay Jindal Rupam.prasad@four-s.com Ajay.jindal@four-s.com Tel: +91-124-4251442 Tel: +91-22-42153659 Four-S offices: Delhi Office: 214, Udyog Vihar Phase I, Gurgaon – 122016. Tel: +91-124- 425 1442 Mumbai office: 101, Nirman Kendra, Opposite Star TV, Off Dr E Moses Road, Mahalaxmi, Mumbai – 400011 Tel: 022 - 42153659 Four-S Research 13