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Governor Olli Rehn
Bank of Finland
Inflation down and
recovery supported by interest rate cut
Bank of Finland Bulletin press briefing
11 June 2024
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 1
Euro area GDP growth is picking up
• In the ECB’s June forecast,
euro area real GDP growth for
2024 was revised upwards.
• The rise in household real
incomes will boost private
consumption.
• Demand for the euro area’s
exports will strengthen, too.
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 2
Number of employed in euro area has increased faster than
hours worked
• The rise in the employment rate
(orange) and increase in the
working-age population (teal) have
boosted the number of hours
worked in the euro area since 2022.
• Population growth in the euro area
has increased since 2019 due to
migration,in particular.
• On the other hand, the decrease in
the average number of hours
worked (blue) has pushed down
the total number of hours worked.
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 3
Euro area inflation continues to slow
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 4
ECB Governing Council decided at its June meeting to
lower the key ECB interest rates
1. The ECB Governing Council decided at its June meeting to lower the key ECB interest
rates by 0.25 percentage points.
2. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-
term target.
3. The Governing Council will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as
necessary to achieve this aim.
4. The Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the
inflation outlookin light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of
underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 5
Finland’s cost competitiveness has remained more or
less unchanged in recent years
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 6
• Finland’s economic success
depends on the ability of Finnish
companies to adjust to changes
in the international operating
environment.
• An important factor is the
development of cost
competitiveness.
• Finland’s cost competitiveness
weakened after the global
financial crisis, strengthened
subsequently, and has remained
stable in recent years.
Labour productivity performance weak since the global
financial crisis
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 7
• Since the global financial
crisis, weak labour
productivity performance
has eroded Finland’s cost
competitiveness relative to
trading partners.
• At the same time, cost
competitiveness has been
supported by the moderate
growth in labour costs.
How to spur productivity growth?
• Most innovations used in Finland have been produced elsewhere.
• By investing in basic research and in related education, we strengthen our
capacity to adopt innovations made elsewhere.
• Innovation potential can also be improved by work-based immigration of
highly educated individuals and through the internationalisation of Finnish
companies.
• In addition to RDI funding, Finland needs an efficient taxation system, well-
functioning competition policy, and regulation on the adoption of
innovations.
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 8
Conclusions
• Euro area GDP growth will strengthen in 2024. Growth in Finland’s
economy, too, will start to pick up towards the end of the year and will
strengthen in 2025 and 2026.
• The real purchasing power of Finnish households has been improving
since mid-2023.
• Despite fiscal adjustment measures, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is
projected to increase in the immediate years ahead.
• To support fiscal consolidation, Finland needs a shared long-term
objective and a national fiscal framework that supports this.
• At the same time, Finland must strengthen the conditions for sustainable
economic growth on a long-term basis.
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
11.6.2024 9
Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland
Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED
Thank you!
10
11.6.2024
Securing stability
using high-quality data.

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Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cut, 11 June 2024

  • 1. Governor Olli Rehn Bank of Finland Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cut Bank of Finland Bulletin press briefing 11 June 2024 Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 1
  • 2. Euro area GDP growth is picking up • In the ECB’s June forecast, euro area real GDP growth for 2024 was revised upwards. • The rise in household real incomes will boost private consumption. • Demand for the euro area’s exports will strengthen, too. Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 2
  • 3. Number of employed in euro area has increased faster than hours worked • The rise in the employment rate (orange) and increase in the working-age population (teal) have boosted the number of hours worked in the euro area since 2022. • Population growth in the euro area has increased since 2019 due to migration,in particular. • On the other hand, the decrease in the average number of hours worked (blue) has pushed down the total number of hours worked. Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 3
  • 4. Euro area inflation continues to slow Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 4
  • 5. ECB Governing Council decided at its June meeting to lower the key ECB interest rates 1. The ECB Governing Council decided at its June meeting to lower the key ECB interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. 2. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium- term target. 3. The Governing Council will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. 4. The Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlookin light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 5
  • 6. Finland’s cost competitiveness has remained more or less unchanged in recent years Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 6 • Finland’s economic success depends on the ability of Finnish companies to adjust to changes in the international operating environment. • An important factor is the development of cost competitiveness. • Finland’s cost competitiveness weakened after the global financial crisis, strengthened subsequently, and has remained stable in recent years.
  • 7. Labour productivity performance weak since the global financial crisis Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 7 • Since the global financial crisis, weak labour productivity performance has eroded Finland’s cost competitiveness relative to trading partners. • At the same time, cost competitiveness has been supported by the moderate growth in labour costs.
  • 8. How to spur productivity growth? • Most innovations used in Finland have been produced elsewhere. • By investing in basic research and in related education, we strengthen our capacity to adopt innovations made elsewhere. • Innovation potential can also be improved by work-based immigration of highly educated individuals and through the internationalisation of Finnish companies. • In addition to RDI funding, Finland needs an efficient taxation system, well- functioning competition policy, and regulation on the adoption of innovations. Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 8
  • 9. Conclusions • Euro area GDP growth will strengthen in 2024. Growth in Finland’s economy, too, will start to pick up towards the end of the year and will strengthen in 2025 and 2026. • The real purchasing power of Finnish households has been improving since mid-2023. • Despite fiscal adjustment measures, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase in the immediate years ahead. • To support fiscal consolidation, Finland needs a shared long-term objective and a national fiscal framework that supports this. • At the same time, Finland must strengthen the conditions for sustainable economic growth on a long-term basis. Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED 11.6.2024 9
  • 10. Governor Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland Public | BOF/FIN-FSA-UNRESTRICTED Thank you! 10 11.6.2024 Securing stability using high-quality data.