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Business Models Steve Blank www.steveblank.com Clean Tech Open Accelerator 2010
I Wrote This
I Write a Blog  www.steveblank.com
It Starts With  the “Idea ”
Where are CleanTech Ideas Born? Technology shifts Market changes Societal changes Dinosaur factor Irrational exuberance
Technology Driven Ideas Is it buildable  now ? How much R, how much D? Does it depend on anything else? Are there IP issues? Does it solve an existing customer problem? Create a new market? How big a market and when? What do you need to turn the idea into a company? How do you test customer acceptance early?
Customer Driven Ideas Is there an articulated customer need?  How do you know? How big a market and when? Are others trying to solve it?  If so, why you? What do you need to turn the idea into a company? How do you test your idea early?
Opportunity Driven Ideas Is there an opportunity no one sees but you do?  How do you know it’s a vision not a hallucination? How do you test your idea early? How big a market and when? Are others trying to solve it?  If so, why you? What do you need to turn the idea into a company?
But an  Idea  By Itself is Not a Company
Idea/Product – Only a Start Your  Idea itself does not have value Its fit with customer needs/demand is crucial The other parts of the company make it  a business First-Mover Advantage is usually wrong
Technology  Risk , Market  Risk or Both?
Clean Tech Markets Air, Water & Waste Energy Efficiency Green Building Renewables Smart Power Transport
Clean Tech Markets - Risk Which markets have  technology risk ? Which markets have  customer risk ? Which have  both ? Air, Water & Waste Energy Efficiency Green Building Renewables Smart Power Transport
Clean Tech Markets - Risk Definitions Technology  Risk   risk is in development  of the product (i.e. fuel cells, thin-film arrays, etc.) then customers automatically adopt Customer  risk risk is in customer and market adoption   Which have  both ?   You spend your time differently depending on risk Air, Water & Waste Energy Efficiency Green Building Renewables Smart Power Transport
Next… CleanTech Business Plan  Hypothesis
Clean Tech Markets - Hypotheses Your business plan is  a set of untested hypothesis What are they? Size of Opportunity Customer Competition Sales Marketing Biz Dev Customer Dev Bus/Rev Model IP/Patents Regulatory Time to Market Prod Dev Model Manufacturing Team Seed Financing Follow-on Liquidity
Clean Tech Markets - Hypotheses Size of Opportunity TAM, SAM Customer Who’s the end user? Economic buyer? Reimburser? Sales  What’s the distribution channel? Marketing How do you create end-user demand Customer Development How do you test your hypothesis Business Model How do all the parts work to create profits? Financing What is the path to cash flow positive Size of Opportunity Customer Competition Sales Marketing Biz Dev Customer Dev Bus/Rev Model IP/Patents Regulatory Time to Market Prod Dev Model Manufacturing Team Seed Financing Follow-on Liquidity
Clean Tech Markets - Hypotheses How do you test these  hypotheses? How do you execute them? Size of Opportunity Customer Competition Sales Marketing Biz Dev Customer Dev Bus/Rev Model IP/Patents Regulatory Time to Market Prod Dev Model Manufacturing Team Seed Financing Follow-on Liquidity
How Big  is It ? So if You Succeed Do I Care?
“ Venture-Scale” Businesses Solve a significant problem/want or need, for which someone is willing to pay a premium A good fit with the founder(s) and team Can grow large (≥$100 million) for traditional VC’s Attractive returns for type of investor
Total Available Market, Served Available Market, Target Market Target  Market SAM  = how many can I reach  with my sales channel TAM  = how big is the universe Target Market  (for a startup) =  who will be the most likely buyers Total Available Market Served Available Market
Market Size: Summary Market Size How big  can this market be?  How much of it  can we get ? Market growth rate Market structure (Mature or in flux?) Most important : Talk to Customers and Channel Next important: Market size by competitive approximation Wall Street analyst reports are great Market research firms
$4 Billion  18,500 MW (Worldwide Grid Tied) Based on lifetime value of all customers (20 yrs) Source: Amonix Market Size for SunStream 18,500 MW  Source: NREL X 5.5 hours a day X 365 days a year X $150 dollars a MWh X .07 efficiency savings X 20 year lifetime X 40% cut for us = $4 Billion
$4 Billion  18,500 MW (Worldwide Grid Tied) $220 Million 1,000 MW  ( US  Grid Tied) Based on lifetime value of all customers (20 yrs) Source: Amonix Market Size for SunStream
Based on lifetime value of all customers (20 yrs) Source: Amonix Market Size for SunStream 33-500 Customers (25MW in sales = 1-15 customers) Source: Heliotex $4 Billion  18,500 MW (Worldwide Grid Tied) $182 Million 830 MW  (US  Commercial Grid  Tied) $220 Million 1,000 MW  (US Grid Tied)
Plan  versus  Model
I’m Confused What is a Business  Model ? How does it differ from a Business  Plan ?
Business  Plan A document your investors make you write that they don’t read A useful place for you to collect your guesses about your business Size of Opportunity Customers Channel Demand Creation Revenue/Expenses/Profit The template to look like everyone else when you do present to VC’s
Business  Plan   - Sum of Hypotheses Business  plan collects your hypothesis Adds facts as you know them today A plan of how to turn hypothesis into facts Extrapolates results if hypothesis turn into facts
No Business  Plan  survives first contact with customers
So Search for a Business  Model
Business  Model … Start with the Pieces
What Is a Business  Model ? A  diagram   that shows all the flows between your company and its customers It describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers and captures value All on a single sheet of paper * Alex Osterwalder
What Makes up a Business Model? A  series of building blocks  which describe: The product Customers/Users Demand Creation Motivations / problems Budget / Resources Flows of value Supply chain
Users Customers Purchase  Distribution Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ $ $
Users Customers Purchase  Distribution Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ $ $
Users Customers Purchase  Distribution Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ $ $
Users Customers Purchase  Distribution Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ $ $
Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ $ $
Users Customers Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ Distribution Channel $ $
Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ $ $
Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ $ $
Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ $ $
Emphasis On  Hypotheses Testing
Startups  Continually  Iterate &  Pivot
VALUE PROPOSITION COST STRUCTURE CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP TARGET CUSTOMER DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL VALUE CONFIGURATION CORE CAPABILITIES PARTNER NETWORK REVENUE STREAMS gives an overall view of a company's bundle of products and services portrays the network of cooperative agreements with other companies describes the channels to communicate and get in touch with customers describes the arrangement of activities and resources explains the relationships a company establishes with its customers sums up the monetary consequences to run a business model describes the revenue streams through which money is earned describes the customers a company wants to offer value to outlines the capabilities required to run a company's business model INFRASTRUCTURE CUSTOMER OFFER FINANCE Business Model =  Keeping Score in a Startup
Business Model Generation Book
Business  Model on Day One  of Your Startup
Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd  Party Integration $ $ ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? $ $
Hypothesis Testing Process Customer Development Customer Discovery Customer Validation Company  Building Customer  Creation Pivot
Stop selling, start  listening Test  your  hypotheses Continuous  Discovery Customer  Discovery Customer Discovery Customer Validation Company Building Customer Creation
Customer Validation Customer Discovery Customer Validation Customer Creation Company Building Repeatable and scalable  business model ? Passionate  earlyvangelists ? Pivot  back to Discovery if no customers Pivot
The  Pivot The heart of Customer Development Iteration without crisis Fast, agile  and  opportunistic
Customer Development Book
Putting It Together in  A VC Pitch
What are VC’s Really Asking? Are you going to: Blow my initial investment?  Or are you going to make me a ton of money? Are there customers for what you are building? How many are there?  Now?  Later? Is there a profitable business model?  Can it scale?
The Traditional VC Pitch Technology Team Product Opportunity Customer Problem Business Model Customers Better Since You Can’t Answer my real questions here’s the checklist
Facts Reduce VC Risk Business Model + Customer Development Extract the hypotheses Leave the building to test the hypothesis Present the results as:  “Lessons Learned from our customers” Iterate Business Model
Tell The Story  of What You Learned Start with your original business model Tell them  why it was wrong Extra credit for getting thrown out of a customer Tell them  what you learned Extra credit for customers saying “now we’ll buy” Use data if you have it
Thanks www.steveblank.com

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Business plans versus business models - 2010

  • 1. Business Models Steve Blank www.steveblank.com Clean Tech Open Accelerator 2010
  • 3. I Write a Blog www.steveblank.com
  • 4. It Starts With the “Idea ”
  • 5. Where are CleanTech Ideas Born? Technology shifts Market changes Societal changes Dinosaur factor Irrational exuberance
  • 6. Technology Driven Ideas Is it buildable now ? How much R, how much D? Does it depend on anything else? Are there IP issues? Does it solve an existing customer problem? Create a new market? How big a market and when? What do you need to turn the idea into a company? How do you test customer acceptance early?
  • 7. Customer Driven Ideas Is there an articulated customer need? How do you know? How big a market and when? Are others trying to solve it? If so, why you? What do you need to turn the idea into a company? How do you test your idea early?
  • 8. Opportunity Driven Ideas Is there an opportunity no one sees but you do? How do you know it’s a vision not a hallucination? How do you test your idea early? How big a market and when? Are others trying to solve it? If so, why you? What do you need to turn the idea into a company?
  • 9. But an Idea By Itself is Not a Company
  • 10. Idea/Product – Only a Start Your Idea itself does not have value Its fit with customer needs/demand is crucial The other parts of the company make it a business First-Mover Advantage is usually wrong
  • 11. Technology Risk , Market Risk or Both?
  • 12. Clean Tech Markets Air, Water & Waste Energy Efficiency Green Building Renewables Smart Power Transport
  • 13. Clean Tech Markets - Risk Which markets have technology risk ? Which markets have customer risk ? Which have both ? Air, Water & Waste Energy Efficiency Green Building Renewables Smart Power Transport
  • 14. Clean Tech Markets - Risk Definitions Technology Risk risk is in development of the product (i.e. fuel cells, thin-film arrays, etc.) then customers automatically adopt Customer risk risk is in customer and market adoption Which have both ? You spend your time differently depending on risk Air, Water & Waste Energy Efficiency Green Building Renewables Smart Power Transport
  • 15. Next… CleanTech Business Plan Hypothesis
  • 16. Clean Tech Markets - Hypotheses Your business plan is a set of untested hypothesis What are they? Size of Opportunity Customer Competition Sales Marketing Biz Dev Customer Dev Bus/Rev Model IP/Patents Regulatory Time to Market Prod Dev Model Manufacturing Team Seed Financing Follow-on Liquidity
  • 17. Clean Tech Markets - Hypotheses Size of Opportunity TAM, SAM Customer Who’s the end user? Economic buyer? Reimburser? Sales What’s the distribution channel? Marketing How do you create end-user demand Customer Development How do you test your hypothesis Business Model How do all the parts work to create profits? Financing What is the path to cash flow positive Size of Opportunity Customer Competition Sales Marketing Biz Dev Customer Dev Bus/Rev Model IP/Patents Regulatory Time to Market Prod Dev Model Manufacturing Team Seed Financing Follow-on Liquidity
  • 18. Clean Tech Markets - Hypotheses How do you test these hypotheses? How do you execute them? Size of Opportunity Customer Competition Sales Marketing Biz Dev Customer Dev Bus/Rev Model IP/Patents Regulatory Time to Market Prod Dev Model Manufacturing Team Seed Financing Follow-on Liquidity
  • 19. How Big is It ? So if You Succeed Do I Care?
  • 20. “ Venture-Scale” Businesses Solve a significant problem/want or need, for which someone is willing to pay a premium A good fit with the founder(s) and team Can grow large (≥$100 million) for traditional VC’s Attractive returns for type of investor
  • 21. Total Available Market, Served Available Market, Target Market Target Market SAM = how many can I reach with my sales channel TAM = how big is the universe Target Market (for a startup) = who will be the most likely buyers Total Available Market Served Available Market
  • 22. Market Size: Summary Market Size How big can this market be? How much of it can we get ? Market growth rate Market structure (Mature or in flux?) Most important : Talk to Customers and Channel Next important: Market size by competitive approximation Wall Street analyst reports are great Market research firms
  • 23. $4 Billion 18,500 MW (Worldwide Grid Tied) Based on lifetime value of all customers (20 yrs) Source: Amonix Market Size for SunStream 18,500 MW Source: NREL X 5.5 hours a day X 365 days a year X $150 dollars a MWh X .07 efficiency savings X 20 year lifetime X 40% cut for us = $4 Billion
  • 24. $4 Billion 18,500 MW (Worldwide Grid Tied) $220 Million 1,000 MW ( US Grid Tied) Based on lifetime value of all customers (20 yrs) Source: Amonix Market Size for SunStream
  • 25. Based on lifetime value of all customers (20 yrs) Source: Amonix Market Size for SunStream 33-500 Customers (25MW in sales = 1-15 customers) Source: Heliotex $4 Billion 18,500 MW (Worldwide Grid Tied) $182 Million 830 MW (US Commercial Grid Tied) $220 Million 1,000 MW (US Grid Tied)
  • 26. Plan versus Model
  • 27. I’m Confused What is a Business Model ? How does it differ from a Business Plan ?
  • 28. Business Plan A document your investors make you write that they don’t read A useful place for you to collect your guesses about your business Size of Opportunity Customers Channel Demand Creation Revenue/Expenses/Profit The template to look like everyone else when you do present to VC’s
  • 29. Business Plan - Sum of Hypotheses Business plan collects your hypothesis Adds facts as you know them today A plan of how to turn hypothesis into facts Extrapolates results if hypothesis turn into facts
  • 30. No Business Plan survives first contact with customers
  • 31. So Search for a Business Model
  • 32. Business Model … Start with the Pieces
  • 33. What Is a Business Model ? A diagram that shows all the flows between your company and its customers It describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers and captures value All on a single sheet of paper * Alex Osterwalder
  • 34. What Makes up a Business Model? A series of building blocks which describe: The product Customers/Users Demand Creation Motivations / problems Budget / Resources Flows of value Supply chain
  • 35. Users Customers Purchase Distribution Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ $ $
  • 36. Users Customers Purchase Distribution Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ $ $
  • 37. Users Customers Purchase Distribution Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ $ $
  • 38. Users Customers Purchase Distribution Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ $ $
  • 39. Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ $ $
  • 40. Users Customers Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ Distribution Channel $ $
  • 41. Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ $ $
  • 42. Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ $ $
  • 43. Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ $ $
  • 44. Emphasis On Hypotheses Testing
  • 45. Startups Continually Iterate & Pivot
  • 46. VALUE PROPOSITION COST STRUCTURE CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP TARGET CUSTOMER DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL VALUE CONFIGURATION CORE CAPABILITIES PARTNER NETWORK REVENUE STREAMS gives an overall view of a company's bundle of products and services portrays the network of cooperative agreements with other companies describes the channels to communicate and get in touch with customers describes the arrangement of activities and resources explains the relationships a company establishes with its customers sums up the monetary consequences to run a business model describes the revenue streams through which money is earned describes the customers a company wants to offer value to outlines the capabilities required to run a company's business model INFRASTRUCTURE CUSTOMER OFFER FINANCE Business Model = Keeping Score in a Startup
  • 48. Business Model on Day One of Your Startup
  • 49. Users Customers Distribution Channel Demand Creation Product Resources $ $ Assembly / Manufacturing 3 rd Party Integration $ $ ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? $ $
  • 50. Hypothesis Testing Process Customer Development Customer Discovery Customer Validation Company Building Customer Creation Pivot
  • 51. Stop selling, start listening Test your hypotheses Continuous Discovery Customer Discovery Customer Discovery Customer Validation Company Building Customer Creation
  • 52. Customer Validation Customer Discovery Customer Validation Customer Creation Company Building Repeatable and scalable business model ? Passionate earlyvangelists ? Pivot back to Discovery if no customers Pivot
  • 53. The Pivot The heart of Customer Development Iteration without crisis Fast, agile and opportunistic
  • 55. Putting It Together in A VC Pitch
  • 56. What are VC’s Really Asking? Are you going to: Blow my initial investment? Or are you going to make me a ton of money? Are there customers for what you are building? How many are there? Now? Later? Is there a profitable business model? Can it scale?
  • 57. The Traditional VC Pitch Technology Team Product Opportunity Customer Problem Business Model Customers Better Since You Can’t Answer my real questions here’s the checklist
  • 58. Facts Reduce VC Risk Business Model + Customer Development Extract the hypotheses Leave the building to test the hypothesis Present the results as: “Lessons Learned from our customers” Iterate Business Model
  • 59. Tell The Story of What You Learned Start with your original business model Tell them why it was wrong Extra credit for getting thrown out of a customer Tell them what you learned Extra credit for customers saying “now we’ll buy” Use data if you have it

Editor's Notes

  1. Left side: Total/serviceable/target: just one picture (16000 MW world PV) – (8000 grid-tied) - - ( 1000 MW grid tied PV ) growing at 17% annual and 6GW of concentrating solar in the pipeline. Solar PV is growing at 52% Make sure we include concrete numbers 1840 MW installed annually in US by 2012, and cumulative will be 5182 MW. CA installs 180 MW annually - The distribution is skewed right. We are planning on focusing on the big players - Figure out how many individual sales we actually have to make “ Large-scale commercial PV and central-station utility-scale PV will most likely become the dominant growth market, - according to electric power research institute Make sure we’re explicit about growth plans (residential, international) *Mention that we talked to competition to validate our assumptions Market segmentation- find those numbers and include them. Make sure we say that it is an existing market - Include another slide that shows how much bigger the pie is in a few years
  2. Left side: Total/serviceable/target: just one picture (16000 MW world PV) – (8000 grid-tied) - - ( 1000 MW grid tied PV ) growing at 17% annual and 6GW of concentrating solar in the pipeline. Solar PV is growing at 52% Make sure we include concrete numbers 1840 MW installed annually in US by 2012, and cumulative will be 5182 MW. CA installs 180 MW annually - The distribution is skewed right. We are planning on focusing on the big players - Figure out how many individual sales we actually have to make “ Large-scale commercial PV and central-station utility-scale PV will most likely become the dominant growth market, - according to electric power research institute Make sure we’re explicit about growth plans (residential, international) *Mention that we talked to competition to validate our assumptions Market segmentation- find those numbers and include them. Make sure we say that it is an existing market - Include another slide that shows how much bigger the pie is in a few years
  3. Left side: Total/serviceable/target: just one picture (16000 MW world PV) – (8000 grid-tied) - - ( 1000 MW grid tied PV ) growing at 17% annual and 6GW of concentrating solar in the pipeline. Solar PV is growing at 52% Make sure we include concrete numbers 1840 MW installed annually in US by 2012, and cumulative will be 5182 MW. CA installs 180 MW annually - The distribution is skewed right. We are planning on focusing on the big players - Figure out how many individual sales we actually have to make “ Large-scale commercial PV and central-station utility-scale PV will most likely become the dominant growth market, - according to electric power research institute Make sure we’re explicit about growth plans (residential, international) *Mention that we talked to competition to validate our assumptions Market segmentation- find those numbers and include them. Make sure we say that it is an existing market - Include another slide that shows how much bigger the pie is in a few years
  4. November 2006 [email_address]