SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Avoiding the ConclusionTrap
Four Steps to Better Decisions
www.theconclusiontrap.com
Three CommonTraps
We humans, facing limits of knowledge,
and things we do not observe. . . resolve
the tension by squeezing life and the world
into crisp commoditized ideas.
– NassimTaleb
author, The Black Swan
“
4 STEPS TO
BETTER
DECISIONS
Go & See
Frame It
Think Backwards
Five Whys
5
A desk is a dangerous place from
which to view the world.
– John le Carré
“
Data vs. Facts
Data is of course important in
manufacturing, but I place the greatest
emphasis on facts.
–Taiichi Ohno“
[Humble inquiry] derives from an attitude of
interest and curiosity. It implies a desire to build
a relationship that will lead to more open
communication. It also implies that one makes
oneself vulnerable and, thereby, arouses positive
helping behavior in the other person.
– Edgar Schein
“
How safe does
your team feel?
Frame It – Properly
A problem well-stated is a problem half
solved.
– Charles Kettering
“
Symptom? Cause? Problem?
Symptom: “There’s not enough beautiful females in here.”
Causes: Lousy name; bar runs out of liquor; sleazy owner…
Problem: Swanky Bubbles is losing $4000 per month.
Symptom: The patient has a fever of 102 degrees.
Cause: The patient traveled to an infected part of the Congo.
Problem: The patient has a bacterial infection.
Symptom: Angry confrontations between “stay home” and “reopen now” factions.
Cause(s): Differing infection rates among urban and rural residents; Democratic
vs. Republican values; ability to work from home; etc….
Problem: Lack of national unity to deal with COVID-19.
OpenVistas vs. Cul-de-Sacs
Problem: Our sales team needs more administrative
support.
Problem: We need a better marketing campaign to
promote our new artisanal coffee maker.
Problem: We never have enough time to close the
books each quarter.
Generality vs. Specificity
Problem: We have too much staff turnover in the
company.
Problem: Sales are down this year.
Problem: Our expenses are way over budget.
Framing AffectsYour Problem SolvingTrajectory
1971: Nixon declares a “war on drugs” (heroin,
cocaine, meth, marijuana)
vs.
2017: Trump formally declares a “Public Health
Emergency” for the opioid crisis/opioid epidemic
www.theconclusiontrap.com
917 364 1864
dan@markovitzconsulting.com
www.markovitzconsulting.com
@danmarkovitz

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Better Decision Making: Avoiding the Conclusion Trap and Other Pitfalls

  • 1. Avoiding the ConclusionTrap Four Steps to Better Decisions
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  • 9. We humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe. . . resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas. – NassimTaleb author, The Black Swan “
  • 10. 4 STEPS TO BETTER DECISIONS Go & See Frame It Think Backwards Five Whys 5
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  • 12. A desk is a dangerous place from which to view the world. – John le Carré “
  • 14. Data is of course important in manufacturing, but I place the greatest emphasis on facts. –Taiichi Ohno“
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  • 19. [Humble inquiry] derives from an attitude of interest and curiosity. It implies a desire to build a relationship that will lead to more open communication. It also implies that one makes oneself vulnerable and, thereby, arouses positive helping behavior in the other person. – Edgar Schein “
  • 20. How safe does your team feel?
  • 21. Frame It – Properly
  • 22. A problem well-stated is a problem half solved. – Charles Kettering “
  • 23. Symptom? Cause? Problem? Symptom: “There’s not enough beautiful females in here.” Causes: Lousy name; bar runs out of liquor; sleazy owner… Problem: Swanky Bubbles is losing $4000 per month. Symptom: The patient has a fever of 102 degrees. Cause: The patient traveled to an infected part of the Congo. Problem: The patient has a bacterial infection. Symptom: Angry confrontations between “stay home” and “reopen now” factions. Cause(s): Differing infection rates among urban and rural residents; Democratic vs. Republican values; ability to work from home; etc…. Problem: Lack of national unity to deal with COVID-19.
  • 24. OpenVistas vs. Cul-de-Sacs Problem: Our sales team needs more administrative support. Problem: We need a better marketing campaign to promote our new artisanal coffee maker. Problem: We never have enough time to close the books each quarter.
  • 25. Generality vs. Specificity Problem: We have too much staff turnover in the company. Problem: Sales are down this year. Problem: Our expenses are way over budget.
  • 26. Framing AffectsYour Problem SolvingTrajectory 1971: Nixon declares a “war on drugs” (heroin, cocaine, meth, marijuana) vs. 2017: Trump formally declares a “Public Health Emergency” for the opioid crisis/opioid epidemic