SlideShare a Scribd company logo
3QSY2010 result update | Sugar
                                                                                                                               August 12, 2010



 Bajaj Hindusthan                                                                                   NEUTRAL
                                                                                                    CMP                                   Rs117
 Performance Highlights                                                                             Target Price                              -
  Parameter (Rs cr)              3QSY10         3QSY09         % yoy        2QSY10         % qoq    Investment Period                          -
  Total revenue                       728            399             82         585          24
                                                                                                    Stock Info
  EBITDA                               73            138        (47)                96      (24)
  EBITDA margin (%)                  10.2            35.9                      16.9                 Sector                                 Sugar
  PAT                                 (15)            62                        (15)                Market Cap (Rs cr)                     2,231
                                                                                                    Beta                                       1
  Source: Company, Angel Research
                                                                                                    52 Week High / Low                    243/99
 For 3QSY2010, Bajaj Hindusthan (BJH) reported lower-than-estimated results,                        Avg. Daily Volume                 1089123
 mainly due to increased cane cost and higher contribution from levy sales. For                     Face Value (Rs)                            1
 3QSY2010, BJH reported an 82% increase in total sales to Rs728cr, while posting                    BSE Sensex                            18,043
 a loss of Rs15cr in the bottom line, against a profit of Rs62cr in 3QSY2009. We                    Nifty                                  5,416
 have pruned our SY2012 estimates due to poor 3QSY2010 performance and the
                                                                                                    Reuters Code                      BJHN.BO
 likely carry forward of high-cost inventory in the next season. At the current level,
                                                                                                    Bloomberg Code                        BJH@IN
 the stock is trading at fair valuations. Thus, we maintain our Neutral view on BJH.

 High raw-material cost, levy sales impact margin: Gross margin declined by 25%
                                                                                                    Shareholding Pattern (%)
 to 18% in 3QSY2010 from 43% in 3QSY2009 due to increased cane cost and
 higher contribution from levy sales. BJH incurred a cost of Rs2,470/tonne on cane                  Promoters                               41.8
 in SY2010, as against Rs1,494/tonne spent in SY2009, an increase of 65% yoy.                       MF / Banks / Indian Fls                  9.8
 Further, BJH booked losses of Rs9/kg (on revised levy price of Rs18/kg) because of                 FII / NRIs / OCBs                       16.5
 higher levy quota sales.                                                                           Indian Public / Others                  31.9

 Outlook and valuation: Going ahead, sugar prices are likely to be under pressure
 due to higher-than-expected sugar production in India and Brazil. Domestic ex-mill                 Abs. (%)             3m         1yr      3yr
 prices have corrected from the highs of Rs42/kg to Rs28–29/kg, while the cost of
                                                                                                    Sensex               5.1       20.3     21.6
 inventory is at Rs28/kg. Thus, we estimate most sugar companies to break even or
                                                                                                    BJH                  6.3   (39.4)      (14.9)
 record miniscule losses at net level over the next three months. At the current level,
 the stock is trading at fair valuations of 1.1x P/B and enterprise value/invested
 capital on SY2011E estimates. Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

 Key financials (Consolidated)
  Y/E Sept. (Rs cr)                      SY2008        SY2009             SY2010E        SY2011E
   Total revenue                             2,070          2,026           3,626          6,106
  % chg                                       16.3           (2.1)           79.0           68.4
  Adj. profit                                 (90)           (33)             (2)           115
  % chg                                      167.4               -              -              -
  EBITDA margin (%)                           14.2           20.8            15.3           10.6
  EPS (Rs)                                       -               -              -            5.4
   P/E (x)                                       -               -              -           21.8
   P/BV (x)                                    1.4            1.0             1.1            1.1
   RoE (%)                                       -               -              -            5.1
   RoCE (%)                                    0.3            1.3             4.4            5.0
   EV/Sales (x)                                2.8            3.0             1.6            0.8
                                                                                                   Sageraj Bariya
   EV/EBITDA (x)                              19.7           14.2            10.4            7.8
                                                                                                   022-40403800 Extn: 346
   EV/IC (x)                                   1.1            1.0             1.1            1.1   sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
  Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                                1
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                  Exhibit 1: 3QSY2010 performance (Standalone)
                  Y/E Sept. (Rs cr)           3QSY10       3QSY09 % chg    9MSY10 9MSY09    % chg
                  Sales                             716       384            1899   1168
                  Other Op Income                    12        16              90    109
                  Total Revenue                     728       399    82      1989   1278      56
                   Consumption of RM                585       217            1269    691
                   (% of Sales)                      80        54               0      0
                  Gross Profit                      131       167   (22)      629    478      32
                  Gross margin (%)                  18.3     43.5            33.1   40.9
                   Staff Costs                       24        23              99     88
                   (% of Sales)                       3         6               0      0
                   Other Expenses                    46        21             190    118
                   (% of Sales)                       6         5              10      9
                   Total Expenditure                655       262            1558    897
                  as % of sales                      90        66              78     70
                  EBITDA                             73       138   (47)      431    381      13
                  EBITDA %                           10        36              23     33
                   Depreciation                      53        48    11       150    151      (1)
                  EBIT                               20        90             281    230
                  EBIT %                              3        23              14     18
                   Other Income                      15        34              18     34
                   Interest                          71        50    42       181    161      13
                   PBT (excl. Extr. Items)          (36)       74             117    103      14
                   Extr. (Income)/Expense             0         2               0     (1)
                   PBT (incl. Extr. Items)          (36)       73             117    105
                   Provision for Taxation           (21)       12              15     19
                   (% of PBT)                        58        17              13     19
                   Reported PAT                     (15)       60             102     85
                  NPM (%)                            (2)       15               5      7
                  Equity capital (cr)                19        18              19     18
                  EPS                                  -      3.4             5.3    4.8
                  Source: Company, Angel Research




August 12, 2010                                                                                 2
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update



                                                                                                             Strong realisations and higher volume support sales growth: Total revenue for
                                                                                                             3QSY2010 grew 82% yoy to Rs728cr (Rs399cr). Sales of the company’s sugar
                                                                                                             division grew by 92% yoy, while sales of the distillery division increased by
                                                                                                             52% yoy. On the volume front, the sugar division witnessed 58% growth, while
                                                                                                             the distillery division witnessed 72% growth.


Exhibit 2: Sugar volume trend                                                                                                      Exhibit 3: Sugar realisation trend
                      0.30                                                                                                                              35                                                      32        33
                                                                                                                         0.25
                      0.25                                                                                                                              30                                                                           27
                                      0.20                                                        0.18                                                  25                         22         22       23
                      0.20                          0.18                             0.18
       (mn tonnes)




                                                                     0.16                                     0.15                                                    17
                                                                                                                                                        20




                                                                                                                                             (Rs/kg)
                      0.15
                                                                                                                                                        15
                      0.10                                                                                                                              10
                      0.05                                                                                                                              5

                      0.00                                                                                                                              0




                                                                                                                                                                      1QSY09



                                                                                                                                                                                   2QSY09



                                                                                                                                                                                              3QSY09



                                                                                                                                                                                                       4QSY09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                1QSY10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2QSY10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3QSY10
                                      1QSY09



                                                        2QSY09



                                                                          3QSY09



                                                                                        4QSY09



                                                                                                    1QSY10



                                                                                                                2QSY10



                                                                                                                          3QSY10




Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                                                    Source: Company, Angel Research



                                                                                                             Distillery realisations witnessed a 12% decline in 3QSY2010 to Rs25/litre from
                                                                                                             Rs28/litre. The higher inventory build-up and subsequent liquidation led to a
                                                                                                             decline in realisations.


Exhibit 4: Distillery volume trend                                                                                                 Exhibit 5: Distillery realisation trend
                     18                        17                                                                                                  30
                                                                                                                                                             29
                     16                                                                                                  14                        29
                                                                                                              13                                                                            28         28
                     14                                                                                                                            28
                     12                                                                                                                                                                                                     27
                                                                                                                                                   27                          26                                26
(mn liters




                                                                                                                                    (Rs/liter)




                     10                                           8
                                                                                                                                                   26
                      8                                                                           6                                                                                                                                      25
                                                                                                                                                   25
                      6       4
                                                                                    3                                                              24
                      4
                      2                                                                                                                            23
                      0                                                                                                                            22
                             1QSY09



                                               2QSY09



                                                                 3QSY09



                                                                                   4QSY09



                                                                                                 1QSY10



                                                                                                              2QSY10



                                                                                                                         3QSY10




                                                                                                                                                             1QSY09




                                                                                                                                                                               2QSY09




                                                                                                                                                                                            3QSY09




                                                                                                                                                                                                       4QSY09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1QSY10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2QSY10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3QSY10




Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                                                    Source: Company, Angel Research

                                                                                                             Increased raw-material cost, high contribution of levy sales impact margin:
                                                                                                             BJH’s gross margin stood at 18%, declining 25%, in 3QSY2010 (43% in
                                                                                                             3QSY2009). Margin was hit due to the increase in cane costs and a higher
                                                                                                             contribution of levy sales. BJH incurred a cost of Rs2,470/tonne of cane in
                                                                                                             SY2010, as against Rs1,494/tonne in SY2009, an increase of 65% yoy. Cane
                                                                                                             prices were driven by high demand from mill operators, as sugar prices kept
                                                                                                             increasing, while the area under cane cultivation remained flat during the
                                                                                                             season. The levy quota (sales to PDS) increased to 20% in SY2010, from 10%
                                                                                                             in SY2009, due to the shortage in sugar production. Levy sugar is being sold
                                                                                                             at a fixed price of Rs18/kg, which led to a loss of Rs9/kg to the company
                                                                                                             during 3QSY2010.


August 12, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                  Exhibit 6: Segmental performance (Standalone)
                  Y/E Sept. (Rs cr)        3QSY10          3QSY09        % chg      9MSY10     9MSY09    % chg
                  Revenue
                  Sugar                         703             366          91.9     1869       1130     65.4
                  Distillery                        36           24          51.5      225         75    199.2
                  Cogen                             22            2                    169         82    106.4
                  Total revenue                 761             392          94.4     2263       1287     75.8


                  PBIT
                  Sugar                              6           95                    169        100
                  Distillery                        10            0                     17         (8)
                  Cogen                             14           (5)                   136         53
                  Total PBIT                        30           90                    322        145


                  PBIT margin
                  Sugar                              1           26                      9          9
                  Distillery                        27            0                      7        (10)
                  Cogen                             62             -                    80         64
                  Source: Company, Angel Research



                  Exhibit 7: 3QSY2010 – Quantitative data (Standalone)
                  Y/E Sept.                     3QSY10 3QSY09 % chg 9MSY10 9MSY09 % chg
                  Cane crushed (mn tonnes)                0.2          0.0               8.5       5.4
                  Production
                  Sugar
                    Cane-based (mn tonnes)                0.0          0.0               0.8       0.5
                    Raw (mn tonnes)                       0.2          0.0               0.3       0.0
                  Distillery (mn litres)                 27.2          8.3              70.3      31.2

                  Sales
                  Sugar (mn tonnes)                       0.2          0.2     58.2      0.6       0.5     9.4
                  Distillery (mn litres)                 14.4          8.4     71.5     33.2      29.0    14.4
                  Power (mn units)                       19.1          0.3             124.7      73.2

                  Realisations
                  Sugar (Rs/kg)                          26.7     22.2         20.3     31.1      19.9    56.3
                  Distillery (Rs/litre)                  24.6     27.8 (11.6)           25.8      25.3     1.9
                  Power (Rs/unit)                         4.2          3.2     31.3      4.1       3.2    29.5
                  Source: Company, Angel Research




August 12, 2010                                                                                              4
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                                               Investment arguments

                                               Domestic sugar supply easing

                                               India's sugar production is estimated to have increased by 27% to
                                               18.5mn–19mn tonnes in SY2010E as against 14.6mn tonnes in SY2009. This was
                                               on account of higher drawal rate of 65% against 53% witnessed last year, as mills
                                               offered higher compensation to farmers compared to the unorganised sector.
                                               Cane realisations for farmers in the current rally have increased by 73% to
                                               Rs2,600/tonne, while they moved up 18% in SY2004, 7% in SY2005 and 10% in
                                               SY2006. In anticipation of this positive trend extending, an increasing number of
                                               farmers is expected to switch over to cane cultivation, thus resulting in the area
                                               under cane cultivation to once again hit the SY2007 peak level of
                                               5.2mn hectares (mn ha) in SY2011E.


Exhibit 8: Sugar cane and sugar production estimate
 Sugar cane production                      SY2004    SY2005    SY2006     SY2007     SY2008     SY2009     SY2010E      SY2011E
Area under cane (mn ha)                        3.9        3.7        4.2       5.2        5.0        4.4          4.3         5.2
% yoy                                        (12.9)     (7.0)      14.7       22.6       (2.9)     (12.1)        (3.3)       22.4
Cane production (mn tonnes)                  233.9     237.1      281.2      355.5      341.0      272.5       293.3        338.0
Yield per hectare (tonnes)                    59.4      64.8       66.9       69.0       68.2       62.0        69.0         65.0
Drawal (%)                                      57        53         67         78         73         53           65          78
Total cane crushed (mn tonnes)               132.5     124.8      188.7      278.9      250.0      145.0       191.0        263.6
Sugar prod. (mn tonnes)                       13.5      12.7       19.3       28.3       26.3       14.6        18.5         26.7
Avg. recovery (%)                             10.2      10.2       10.2       10.2       10.5       10.1          9.7        10.1
Sugar production
mn tonnes
Opening stock                                 12.4        8.2        4.5       3.4        9.8        8.1          4.4         4.4
Production                                    13.5      12.7       19.3       28.3       26.3       14.6        18.5         26.7
Domestic consumption                          17.9      18.5       19.3       20.2       22.5       22.5        23.1         23.6
% yoy                                                     3.4        4.3        4.7      11.4        0.0          2.5         2.5
Exports                                        0.2        0.0        1.1       1.7        4.8        0.0          0.0         0.0
Imports                                        0.4        2.1        0.0       0.0        0.0        4.2          4.6         0.0
Closing stock                                  8.2        4.5        3.4       9.8        8.8        4.4          4.4         7.5
Closing stock (months)                         5.5        2.9        2.1       5.8        4.7        2.3          2.3         3.8
Stock-to-use ratio (%)                          46        24         18         49         39         20           19          32
Source: Industry, Company, Angel Research

                                               Given the increasing number of farmers switching to cane cultivation, sugarcane
                                               supply is further likely to ease in SY2011E. This would result in cane realisations
                                               turning unattractive from the unorganised sector and will force famers to shift over
                                               to mills for better realisations. Hence, we expect the drawal rate to once again hit
                                               the SY2007 peak level of 78% in SY2011E, resulting in total sugar production of
                                               26.7mn tonnes. Moreover, with consumption likely to be 24mn tonnes in
                                               SY2011E, India would end the year with an overall inventory of 7.5mn tonnes,
                                               equivalent to 3.8 months of consumption and an improvement over SY2010.




August 12, 2010                                                                                                                  5
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update



                  Profits to be impacted by high raw inventory

                  BJH bought the largest raw sugar inventory of 700,000 tonnes in the industry,
                  contracted at US $467/tonne and translating into total cost of Rs28/kg for refined
                  sugar. Thus, due to the decline in sugar realisations, we expect the company's
                  EBITDA margin in refined sugar to be affected severely.

                  Low contribution from high-margin power business v/s peers

                  BJH, though the largest sugar manufacturer in India, has lagged competition in
                  terms of diversifying and enhancing its revenue and profitability profile compared
                  to peers. BJH was also a late entrant in the high EBITDA margin (60%) power
                  generation (external sales) business.

                  Pertinently, every sugar manufacturing process has bagasse as a by-product,
                  which can be used as feedstock to generate power. Balrampur Chini Mills (BRCM),
                  the second largest player in the industry, forayed into the power segment as early
                  as 2003, while BJH’s power division logged in its first full year of performance in
                  SY2008. BJH’s power division has total installed capacity of 428MW with external
                  saleable capacity of 105MW or 25% of installed capacity. BRCM has total installed
                  capacity of 180MW and external saleable capacity of 126MW or 70% of installed
                  capacity. Thus, as is apparent, BJH has high internal power consumption, resulting
                  in lower external sale of power.

                  Outlook and valuation

                  BJH’s 3QSY2010 performance was below our expectation. Going ahead, sugar
                  prices are likely to be under pressure because of higher-than-estimated sugar
                  production in India and Brazil. Hence, sugar demand-supply would achieve a
                  balance in SY2011E, resulting in further softening of prices. Domestic ex-mill
                  prices have corrected from the high of Rs42/kg to Rs28–29/kg, while inventory is
                  in the range of Rs26–27/kg. Thus, we estimate most sugar companies to break
                  even or record miniscule losses at the net level over the next six months.

                  We have cut our SY2011E estimates because of the higher carry forward high-cost
                  inventory. At the current level of Rs117, the stock is trading at 1.1x P/BV and
                  enterprise value/invested capital on SY2011E estimates, near its fair valuations.
                  Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

                  Exhibit 9: Change in estimates
                                                         Old               New           % change
                  Parameter (Rs cr)                 SY2010     SY2011 SY2010 SY2011 SY2010 SY2011
                  Sales                              5,485      5,133   3,626    6,106   (34)       19
                  EBITDA                              202        781     555      646    175    (17)
                  EBITDA %                              4         15      15       11
                  PAT                                (267)       224      (2)     115    (99)   (49)
                  EPS                                    -        10        -       5       -   (44)

                  Source: Company, Angel Research




August 12, 2010                                                                                      6
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                                                Exhibit 10: Key assumption
                                                                                                                                                                 SY2010E                                        SY2011E
                                                 Capacity (‘000 tcd)                                                                                                        136                                            136
                                                 Utilisation (%)                                                                                                               48                                             92
                                                 No. of days                                                                                                                   72                                          138
                                                 Cane crushed (mn tonnes)                                                                                                      10                                             19
                                                 Recovery rate (%)                                                                                                                  9                                         10
                                                 Sugar produced (MT)                                                                                             895,800                                      1,876,800
                                                 Sugar sales (mn tonnes)                                                                                         877,572                                      2,070,028
                                                 Levy realisation (Rs/kg)                                                                                                      18                                             18
                                                 Free sale realisation (Rs/kg)                                                                                                 31                                             24
                                                 Blended realisation - Net (Rs/kg)                                                                                             28                                             23
                                                 Cost of cane (Rs/tonne)                                                                                                  2,470                                          1,800
                                                 Refinery based sugar ( tonnes)                                                                                  280,000                                        210,000
                                                 Realisation (Rs/kg)                                                                                                           31                                             24
                                                 Alcohol sales (mn kl)                                                                                                         57                                          139
                                                 Realisation per litre                                                                                                         26                                             26
                                                 Cogen units – surplus (mn units)                                                                                           162                                            396
                                                 Realisation per unit                                                                                                               4                                              4
                                                 Source: Company, Angel Research




Exhibit 11: Peer valuation
Peer valuation                    Reco.      Mcap                CMP                      P/E                                  P/B                               EV/EBITDA                               RoE (%)
                                             (Rs cr)             (Rs)        SY10               SY11                SY10               SY11                 SY10                    SY11          SY10                   SY11
Balrampur Chini                   Neutral    2,146                84          18.7                7.3                     1.8                1.6                 9.2                    5.3            9.8               22.5
Bajaj Hindusthan                  Neutral    2,505               117                  -         21.8                      1.1                1.1             10.4                       7.8               -                5.1
Shree Renuka Sugar                -          4,484                67             5.9              9.3                     1.9                1.6                 5.0                    6.2        32.9                  17.4

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research




                                                Exhibit 12: One-year forward EV/IC band

                                                                 12,000
                                                                 10,000
                                                                  8,000
                                                       (Rs cr)




                                                                  6,000
                                                                  4,000
                                                                  2,000
                                                                        -
                                                                                              Apr-07

                                                                                                       Jul-07




                                                                                                                                    Apr-08

                                                                                                                                              Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                                           Apr-09

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-10
                                                                            Oct-06




                                                                                                                 Oct-07




                                                                                                                                                        Oct-08




                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-09
                                                                                     Jan-07




                                                                                                                           Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-10




                                                                             EV                   0.8x                     1.1x                        1.3x                    1.6x                     1.8x


                                                 Source: Company, Angel Research




August 12, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                  Exhibit 13: One-year forward P/B band

                            600
                            500
                            400




                     (Rs)
                            300
                            200
                            100
                             0




                                                                                             Apr-09




                                                                                                                                  Jul-10
                                                    Aug-07
                                  Oct-06


                                           Mar-07




                                                                                                                         Feb-10
                                                                                    Nov-08




                                                                                                           Sep-09
                                                                           Jun-08
                                                                  Jan-08
                                            Price            1x            2x         3x              4x            4x


                  Source: Company, Angel Research




August 12, 2010                                                                                                                            8
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                  Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
                  Y/E Sept. (Rs cr)                     SY06    SY07     SY08     SY09     SY10E   SY11E
                  Total operating income                1,483   1,780    2,070    2,026    3,626   6,106
                   % chg                                 77.2    20.1     16.3     (2.1)    79.0    68.4
                  Total Expenditure                     1,169   1,590    1,776    1,605    3,071   5,460
                  Net Raw Materials                      975    1,205    1,369    1,221    2,536   4,423
                  Other Mfg costs                         10       16       24       29      31      55
                  Personnel                               58     142      148      165      135     328
                  Other                                  126     226      234      189      368     655
                  EBITDA                                 313     191      294      421      555     646
                   % chg                                 56.2   (39.2)    54.2     43.2     31.7    16.4
                   (% of Net Sales)                      21.1    10.7     14.2     20.8     15.3    10.6
                  Depreciation& Amortisation              76     161      280      346      292     373
                  EBIT                                   237       30       14       76     263     273
                   % chg                                 43.5   (87.5)   (51.8)   430.1    247.3     3.8
                   (% of Net Sales)                      16.0     1.7      0.7      3.7      7.3     4.5
                  Interest & other Charges                23     139      278      263      307     250
                  Other Income                            87       80     121      141       29     121
                   (% of PBT)                             29         -        -        -       -     84
                  Recurring PBT                          302      (29)   (143)     (47)     (16)    144
                   % chg                                 77.1        -        -        -       -       -
                  Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)              -        -    130     (152)        -       -
                  PBT (reported)                         302      (29)   (273)     105      (16)    144
                  Tax                                    117      (20)     (98)      46      (3)     29
                   (% of PBT)                            38.9    68.1     35.9     43.4     20.0    20.0
                  PAT (reported)                         185       (9)   (175)       60     (12)    115
                  Add: Share of earnings of associate      4        5        6        7       8       9
                  Less: Minority interest (MI)              -     (11)      17        2      11        -
                  Prior period items                        -        -        -        -       -       -
                  PAT after MI (reported)                185      (21)   (157)       62      (2)    115
                  ADJ. PAT                               226      (34)     (90)    (33)      (2)    115
                   % chg                                 77.1        -        -        -       -       -
                   (% of Net Sales)                      15.3        -        -        -       -     1.9
                  Basic EPS (Rs)                         16.0        -        -        -       -     5.4
                  Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)                 16.0        -        -        -       -     5.4
                   % chg                                 45.7        -        -        -       -       -




August 12, 2010                                                                                        9
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                  Balance Sheet Statement (Consolidated)
                  Y/E Sept. (Rs cr)              SY06   SY07    SY08   SY09 SY10E     SY11E
                   SOURCES OF FUNDS
                   Equity Share Capital            14     14      14    18      21      21
                   Preference Capital               -       -      -      -       -       -
                   Reserves & Surplus           1,347   1,392   1,187 2,096   2,168   2,296
                   Shareholders’ Funds          1,361   1,406   1,201 2,114   2,190   2,318
                   Minority Interest                -     23      67    65      76        -
                   Total Loans                  1,541   3,593   4,335 4,056   3,439   2,820
                   Deferred Tax Liability         126    105       4    49      49      49
                   Total Liabilities            3,029   5,127   5,608 6,283   5,753   5,186
                   APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                   Gross Block                  1,379   2,922   4,745 5,295   5,315   5,330
                   Less: Acc. Depreciation        305    467     719 1,060    1,352   1,724
                   Net Block                    1,074   2,455   4,026 4,235   3,964   3,606
                   Capital Work-in-Progress     1,472   1,630    159   155     155     155
                   Goodwill                         -       -      -      -       -       -
                   Investments                     0       0       0     0       0       0
                   Current Assets                  4       5       6     7       8       9
                      Cash                        231    267     174   127     164     321
                      Loans & Advances            444   1,240   1,571 1,859   1,813   1,832
                      Other                       210    548     847 1,006    1,146   1,846
                   Current liabilities            402   1,013   1,169 1,100   1,488   2,573
                   Net Current Assets             483   1,042   1,423 1,893   1,635   1,426
                   Mis. Exp. not written off        -     (0)      -      -       -       -
                   Total Assets                 3,029   5,127   5,608 6,283   5,753   5,186




August 12, 2010                                                                               10
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                  Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
                  Y/E Sept. (Rs cr)                        SY06       SY07    SY08     SY09 SY10E SY11E
                   Profit before tax                        280        (29)   (293)     105      (16)    144
                   Depreciation                               72       161     280      346      292     373
                   Change in Working Capital               (357)       (25)   (128)    (263)     639     550
                   Less: Other income                           -         -        -        -       -        -
                   Direct taxes paid                        (73)       (20)     (25)     (14)      3      (25)
                   Cash Flow from Operations                (77)        88    (166)     174      918    1,042
                   (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets         (1,229.3) (1,696.9) (291.6) (160.4) (20.0)      (15.0)
                   (Inc.)/ Dec.) in Investments          (148.3)    (301.5)    (1.2)    35.0        -        -
                   Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances           -         -        -        -       -        -
                   Other income                                 -         -        -        -       -        -
                   Cash Flow from Investing              (1,378)    (1,998)   (293)    (125)     (20)     (15)
                   Issue of Equity                          734         31        5     742       78         -
                   Inc./(Dec.) in loans                     996      2,052     620     (428)    (617)   (619)
                   Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)                  (8)      (10)     (10)     (10)    (14)        -
                   Others                                   (50)     (126)    (250)    (399)    (307)   (250)
                   Cash Flow from Financing                1,672     1,947     365       (95)   (861)   (869)
                   Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                     217.5      36.2    (93.4)   (46.8)   36.7    157.2
                   Opening Cash balances                       6       231     267      174      127     164
                   Closing Cash balances                    223        267     174      127      164     321




August 12, 2010                                                                                            11
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




                  Key Ratios
                  Y/E Sept.                                   SY06   SY07   SY08   SY09 SY10E      SY11E
                   Valuation Ratio (x)
                   P/E (on FDEPS)                              7.3      -      -       -       -    21.8
                   P/CEPS                                      5.5   12.9    8.7     6.6     8.6     5.1
                   P/BV                                        1.2    1.2    1.4     1.0     1.1     1.1
                   Dividend yield (%)                          0.5    0.5    0.5     0.6       -     2.1
                   EV/Sales                                    2.0    2.8    2.8     3.0     1.6     0.8
                   EV/EBITDA                                   9.4   26.1   19.7    14.2    10.4     7.8
                   EV / Total Assets                           1.0    1.0    1.0     1.0     1.0     1.0
                   EV / IC                                     2.2    1.5    1.1     1.0     1.1     1.1
                   Per Share Data (Rs)
                   EPS (Basic)                                16.0      -      -       -       -     5.4
                   EPS (fully diluted)                        16.0      -      -       -       -     5.4
                   Cash EPS                                   21.4    9.0   13.4    17.7    13.5    22.7
                   DPS                                         0.6    0.6    0.6     0.7       -     2.5
                   Book Value                                 96.3   99.4   85.0   119.5   101.9   107.8
                   DuPont Analysis
                   EBIT margin                                16.0    1.7    0.7     3.7     7.3     4.5
                   Tax retention ratio                        61.1   31.9   64.1    56.6    80.0    80.0
                   Asset turnover (x)                          1.1    0.6    0.4     0.3     0.7     1.3
                   ROIC (Post-tax)                            11.0    0.3    0.2     0.7     3.9     4.6
                   Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                     3.0    1.7    4.1     4.6     6.6     6.4
                   Leverage (x)                                0.9    1.7    2.9     2.4     1.7     1.3
                   Operating ROE                              18.3      -      -       -       -     2.4
                   Returns (%)
                   ROCE (Pre-tax)                             11.3    0.7    0.3     1.3     4.4     5.0
                   Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                        8.5    0.6    0.3     1.2     4.7     5.6
                   ROE                                        22.9      -      -       -       -     5.1
                   Turnover ratios (x)
                   Asset Turnover (Gross Block)                1.1    0.8    0.5     0.4     0.7     1.1
                   Inventory / Sales (days)                    24     59    108     158     101      81
                   Receivables (days)                          10     18     15       9       8       8
                   Payables (days)                             40    105    172     212     135     125
                   Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)      41    105    178     272     163      77
                   Solvency ratios (x)
                   Net debt to equity                          1.0    2.4    3.5     1.9     1.5     1.1
                   Net debt to EBITDA                          4.2   17.4   14.1     9.3     5.9     3.9
                   Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)        10.3    0.2    0.1     0.3     0.9     1.1




August 12, 2010                                                                                       12
Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update




  Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800               E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                   Website: www.angeltrade.com

 DISCLAIMER

 This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
 decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
 such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
 referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
 risks of such an investment.

 Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
 investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
 document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

 Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
 trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
 fundamentals.

 The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
 sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
 document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
 responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
 Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
 nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
 Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
 compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
 This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
 redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

 Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
 other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
 the past.

 Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
 connection with the use of this information.

 Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
 refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
 its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                          Bajaj Hindusthan
 1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                 No
 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                           Yes
 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                No
 4. Broking relationship with company covered                                      No

 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



 Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                 Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)


August 12, 2010                                                                                                                           13

More Related Content

What's hot

BHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result UpdateBHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Jk lakshmi ru4 qfy2010-190510
Jk lakshmi ru4 qfy2010-190510Jk lakshmi ru4 qfy2010-190510
Jk lakshmi ru4 qfy2010-190510
Angel Broking
 
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Angel Broking
 
Lupin
LupinLupin
Bajaj Electricals
Bajaj ElectricalsBajaj Electricals
Bajaj Electricals
Angel Broking
 
JK Tyre
JK TyreJK Tyre
JK Tyre
Angel Broking
 
Bank of India
Bank of India Bank of India
Bank of India
Angel Broking
 
61107576 rallis-india
61107576 rallis-india61107576 rallis-india
61107576 rallis-india
jeetay
 
India Cement
India CementIndia Cement
India Cement
Angel Broking
 
HUL
HULHUL
Marico Result Update
Marico Result UpdateMarico Result Update
Marico Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Sterlite Result Update
Sterlite Result UpdateSterlite Result Update
Sterlite Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Maruti suzuki Result Update
Maruti suzuki Result UpdateMaruti suzuki Result Update
Maruti suzuki Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Cairn India
Cairn IndiaCairn India
Cairn India
Angel Broking
 
Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510
Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510
Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510
Angel Broking
 
Glaxo Result Update
Glaxo Result UpdateGlaxo Result Update
Glaxo Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Bharat forge ru4 qfy2010-210510
Bharat forge ru4 qfy2010-210510Bharat forge ru4 qfy2010-210510
Bharat forge ru4 qfy2010-210510
Angel Broking
 
Asian Paints
Asian PaintsAsian Paints
Asian Paints
Angel Broking
 

What's hot (18)

BHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result UpdateBHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result Update
 
Jk lakshmi ru4 qfy2010-190510
Jk lakshmi ru4 qfy2010-190510Jk lakshmi ru4 qfy2010-190510
Jk lakshmi ru4 qfy2010-190510
 
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
 
Lupin
LupinLupin
Lupin
 
Bajaj Electricals
Bajaj ElectricalsBajaj Electricals
Bajaj Electricals
 
JK Tyre
JK TyreJK Tyre
JK Tyre
 
Bank of India
Bank of India Bank of India
Bank of India
 
61107576 rallis-india
61107576 rallis-india61107576 rallis-india
61107576 rallis-india
 
India Cement
India CementIndia Cement
India Cement
 
HUL
HULHUL
HUL
 
Marico Result Update
Marico Result UpdateMarico Result Update
Marico Result Update
 
Sterlite Result Update
Sterlite Result UpdateSterlite Result Update
Sterlite Result Update
 
Maruti suzuki Result Update
Maruti suzuki Result UpdateMaruti suzuki Result Update
Maruti suzuki Result Update
 
Cairn India
Cairn IndiaCairn India
Cairn India
 
Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510
Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510
Graphite india ru4 qfy2010-140510
 
Glaxo Result Update
Glaxo Result UpdateGlaxo Result Update
Glaxo Result Update
 
Bharat forge ru4 qfy2010-210510
Bharat forge ru4 qfy2010-210510Bharat forge ru4 qfy2010-210510
Bharat forge ru4 qfy2010-210510
 
Asian Paints
Asian PaintsAsian Paints
Asian Paints
 

Viewers also liked

La lucha de la luz y la sombra
La lucha de la luz y la sombraLa lucha de la luz y la sombra
La lucha de la luz y la sombra
nezpoldesing
 
GL5, Artus, 2004, powerpoint. - http://opensigle.inist.fr/handle/10068/697854
GL5, Artus, 2004, powerpoint. - http://opensigle.inist.fr/handle/10068/697854GL5, Artus, 2004, powerpoint. - http://opensigle.inist.fr/handle/10068/697854
GL5, Artus, 2004, powerpoint. - http://opensigle.inist.fr/handle/10068/697854
GreyNet, Grey Literature Network Service
 
Tragedia Educativa
Tragedia EducativaTragedia Educativa
Tragedia Educativa
Anna Pérez
 
SIA Kivvi Organic Cosmetics veiksmes stāsts
SIA Kivvi Organic Cosmetics veiksmes stāstsSIA Kivvi Organic Cosmetics veiksmes stāsts
SIA Kivvi Organic Cosmetics veiksmes stāsts
Ekonomikas ministrija
 
Autism
AutismAutism
Autism
ptc10
 
Ecuador
EcuadorEcuador
Ecuador
rudacompany
 
Power%20 aplicaciones%20web%202.0
Power%20 aplicaciones%20web%202.0Power%20 aplicaciones%20web%202.0
Power%20 aplicaciones%20web%202.0
Olga Doblack
 
Estructura dels-continguts
Estructura dels-contingutsEstructura dels-continguts
Estructura dels-continguts
Anna Pérez
 

Viewers also liked (8)

La lucha de la luz y la sombra
La lucha de la luz y la sombraLa lucha de la luz y la sombra
La lucha de la luz y la sombra
 
GL5, Artus, 2004, powerpoint. - http://opensigle.inist.fr/handle/10068/697854
GL5, Artus, 2004, powerpoint. - http://opensigle.inist.fr/handle/10068/697854GL5, Artus, 2004, powerpoint. - http://opensigle.inist.fr/handle/10068/697854
GL5, Artus, 2004, powerpoint. - http://opensigle.inist.fr/handle/10068/697854
 
Tragedia Educativa
Tragedia EducativaTragedia Educativa
Tragedia Educativa
 
SIA Kivvi Organic Cosmetics veiksmes stāsts
SIA Kivvi Organic Cosmetics veiksmes stāstsSIA Kivvi Organic Cosmetics veiksmes stāsts
SIA Kivvi Organic Cosmetics veiksmes stāsts
 
Autism
AutismAutism
Autism
 
Ecuador
EcuadorEcuador
Ecuador
 
Power%20 aplicaciones%20web%202.0
Power%20 aplicaciones%20web%202.0Power%20 aplicaciones%20web%202.0
Power%20 aplicaciones%20web%202.0
 
Estructura dels-continguts
Estructura dels-contingutsEstructura dels-continguts
Estructura dels-continguts
 

Similar to Bajaj Hindustan

Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Angel Broking
 
Brcm result update 2 qsy2010 040510
Brcm result update 2 qsy2010 040510Brcm result update 2 qsy2010 040510
Brcm result update 2 qsy2010 040510
Angel Broking
 
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat GasGujarat Gas
Gujarat Gas
Angel Broking
 
ABB India
ABB IndiaABB India
ABB India
Angel Broking
 
GKS Consumer Result Update
GKS Consumer Result UpdateGKS Consumer Result Update
GKS Consumer Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Colgate Palmolive
Colgate PalmoliveColgate Palmolive
Colgate Palmolive
Angel Broking
 
Nestle 1QCY2010 Result Update
Nestle 1QCY2010 Result UpdateNestle 1QCY2010 Result Update
Nestle 1QCY2010 Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Nestle
Nestle Nestle
Nestle
Angel Broking
 
Dishman
DishmanDishman
Dishman
Angel Broking
 
Bosch
BoschBosch
Bajaj Auto
Bajaj AutoBajaj Auto
Bajaj Auto
Angel Broking
 
CCCl
CCClCCCl
Exide Industries
Exide IndustriesExide Industries
Exide Industries
Angel Broking
 
Marico
Marico Marico
Marico
Angel Broking
 
Cipla
Cipla Cipla
GSPL
GSPLGSPL
GSPL
GSPLGSPL
GSPL
GSPLGSPL
Dabur Result Update
Dabur Result UpdateDabur Result Update
Dabur Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510
Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510
Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510
Angel Broking
 

Similar to Bajaj Hindustan (20)

Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
 
Brcm result update 2 qsy2010 040510
Brcm result update 2 qsy2010 040510Brcm result update 2 qsy2010 040510
Brcm result update 2 qsy2010 040510
 
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat GasGujarat Gas
Gujarat Gas
 
ABB India
ABB IndiaABB India
ABB India
 
GKS Consumer Result Update
GKS Consumer Result UpdateGKS Consumer Result Update
GKS Consumer Result Update
 
Colgate Palmolive
Colgate PalmoliveColgate Palmolive
Colgate Palmolive
 
Nestle 1QCY2010 Result Update
Nestle 1QCY2010 Result UpdateNestle 1QCY2010 Result Update
Nestle 1QCY2010 Result Update
 
Nestle
Nestle Nestle
Nestle
 
Dishman
DishmanDishman
Dishman
 
Bosch
BoschBosch
Bosch
 
Bajaj Auto
Bajaj AutoBajaj Auto
Bajaj Auto
 
CCCl
CCClCCCl
CCCl
 
Exide Industries
Exide IndustriesExide Industries
Exide Industries
 
Marico
Marico Marico
Marico
 
Cipla
Cipla Cipla
Cipla
 
GSPL
GSPLGSPL
GSPL
 
GSPL
GSPLGSPL
GSPL
 
GSPL
GSPLGSPL
GSPL
 
Dabur Result Update
Dabur Result UpdateDabur Result Update
Dabur Result Update
 
Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510
Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510
Bajaj electricals ru4-qfy2010-280510
 

More from Angel Broking

Market outlook 110612
Market outlook 110612Market outlook 110612
Market outlook 110612
Angel Broking
 
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Angel Broking
 
Electrosteel castings
Electrosteel castingsElectrosteel castings
Electrosteel castings
Angel Broking
 
Persistent systems
Persistent systemsPersistent systems
Persistent systems
Angel Broking
 
Ht media
Ht mediaHt media
Ht media
Angel Broking
 
Derivative report 19th July 2011
Derivative report 19th July 2011Derivative report 19th July 2011
Derivative report 19th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Market outlook 19th July 2011
Market outlook 19th July 2011Market outlook 19th July 2011
Market outlook 19th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Telecom sector
Telecom sectorTelecom sector
Telecom sector
Angel Broking
 
Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Weekly Report 18th July 2011Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Derivative Report 18th July 2011Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Technical Report 18th July 2011
Technical Report 18th July 2011Technical Report 18th July 2011
Technical Report 18th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Market Outlook 18th July 2011Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
South Indian Bank
 South Indian Bank South Indian Bank
South Indian Bank
Angel Broking
 
Bajaj auto Result Updated
Bajaj auto Result UpdatedBajaj auto Result Updated
Bajaj auto Result Updated
Angel Broking
 
Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services
Angel Broking
 
Fc4 e63c4d01
Fc4 e63c4d01Fc4 e63c4d01
Fc4 e63c4d01
Angel Broking
 
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Technical Report 15th July 2011
Technical Report 15th July 2011Technical Report 15th July 2011
Technical Report 15th July 2011
Angel Broking
 
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result UpdatedInfosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
Angel Broking
 
Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Derivative Report 13th July 2011Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Angel Broking
 

More from Angel Broking (20)

Market outlook 110612
Market outlook 110612Market outlook 110612
Market outlook 110612
 
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
Axis%20 bank ru1qfy2012-220711
 
Electrosteel castings
Electrosteel castingsElectrosteel castings
Electrosteel castings
 
Persistent systems
Persistent systemsPersistent systems
Persistent systems
 
Ht media
Ht mediaHt media
Ht media
 
Derivative report 19th July 2011
Derivative report 19th July 2011Derivative report 19th July 2011
Derivative report 19th July 2011
 
Market outlook 19th July 2011
Market outlook 19th July 2011Market outlook 19th July 2011
Market outlook 19th July 2011
 
Telecom sector
Telecom sectorTelecom sector
Telecom sector
 
Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Weekly Report 18th July 2011Weekly Report 18th July 2011
Weekly Report 18th July 2011
 
Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Derivative Report 18th July 2011Derivative Report 18th July 2011
Derivative Report 18th July 2011
 
Technical Report 18th July 2011
Technical Report 18th July 2011Technical Report 18th July 2011
Technical Report 18th July 2011
 
Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Market Outlook 18th July 2011Market Outlook 18th July 2011
Market Outlook 18th July 2011
 
South Indian Bank
 South Indian Bank South Indian Bank
South Indian Bank
 
Bajaj auto Result Updated
Bajaj auto Result UpdatedBajaj auto Result Updated
Bajaj auto Result Updated
 
Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services
 
Fc4 e63c4d01
Fc4 e63c4d01Fc4 e63c4d01
Fc4 e63c4d01
 
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
Derivatives Report 15th July 2011
 
Technical Report 15th July 2011
Technical Report 15th July 2011Technical Report 15th July 2011
Technical Report 15th July 2011
 
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result UpdatedInfosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
 
Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Derivative Report 13th July 2011Derivative Report 13th July 2011
Derivative Report 13th July 2011
 

Recently uploaded

falcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investments
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investmentsfalcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investments
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investments
Falcon Invoice Discounting
 
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic Data
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic DataThe Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic Data
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic Data
Champak Jhagmag
 
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla FincorpWho Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
beulahfernandes8
 
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightnessWhat's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
 
G20 summit held in India. Proper presentation for G20 summit
G20 summit held in India. Proper presentation for G20 summitG20 summit held in India. Proper presentation for G20 summit
G20 summit held in India. Proper presentation for G20 summit
rohitsaxena882511
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School DesignsInstant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
egoetzinger
 
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptxOAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
一比一原版(UoB毕业证)伯明翰大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UoB毕业证)伯明翰大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(UoB毕业证)伯明翰大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UoB毕业证)伯明翰大学毕业证如何办理
nexop1
 
Donald Trump Presentation and his life.pptx
Donald Trump Presentation and his life.pptxDonald Trump Presentation and his life.pptx
Donald Trump Presentation and his life.pptx
SerdarHudaykuliyew
 
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
AntoniaOwensDetwiler
 
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
Neal Brewster
 
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
 
FCCS Basic Accounts Outline and Hierarchy.pptx
FCCS Basic Accounts Outline and Hierarchy.pptxFCCS Basic Accounts Outline and Hierarchy.pptx
FCCS Basic Accounts Outline and Hierarchy.pptx
nalamynandan
 
Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
Earn a passive income with prosocial investingEarn a passive income with prosocial investing
Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
Colin R. Turner
 
Tumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdf
Tumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdfTumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdf
Tumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdf
Henry Tapper
 
DEMAND AND SUPPLY.docx Notes for Economics
DEMAND AND SUPPLY.docx Notes for EconomicsDEMAND AND SUPPLY.docx Notes for Economics
DEMAND AND SUPPLY.docx Notes for Economics
Opanga1
 
Pensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdf
Pensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdfPensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdf
Pensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdf
Henry Tapper
 
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxFinancial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Writo-Finance
 
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
lamluanvan.net Viết thuê luận văn
 
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdfWho Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Price Vision
 

Recently uploaded (20)

falcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investments
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investmentsfalcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investments
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investments
 
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic Data
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic DataThe Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic Data
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic Data
 
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla FincorpWho Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
 
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightnessWhat's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
 
G20 summit held in India. Proper presentation for G20 summit
G20 summit held in India. Proper presentation for G20 summitG20 summit held in India. Proper presentation for G20 summit
G20 summit held in India. Proper presentation for G20 summit
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School DesignsInstant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
Instant Issue Debit Cards - School Designs
 
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptxOAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
 
一比一原版(UoB毕业证)伯明翰大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UoB毕业证)伯明翰大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(UoB毕业证)伯明翰大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UoB毕业证)伯明翰大学毕业证如何办理
 
Donald Trump Presentation and his life.pptx
Donald Trump Presentation and his life.pptxDonald Trump Presentation and his life.pptx
Donald Trump Presentation and his life.pptx
 
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
 
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
 
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
 
FCCS Basic Accounts Outline and Hierarchy.pptx
FCCS Basic Accounts Outline and Hierarchy.pptxFCCS Basic Accounts Outline and Hierarchy.pptx
FCCS Basic Accounts Outline and Hierarchy.pptx
 
Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
Earn a passive income with prosocial investingEarn a passive income with prosocial investing
Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
 
Tumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdf
Tumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdfTumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdf
Tumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdf
 
DEMAND AND SUPPLY.docx Notes for Economics
DEMAND AND SUPPLY.docx Notes for EconomicsDEMAND AND SUPPLY.docx Notes for Economics
DEMAND AND SUPPLY.docx Notes for Economics
 
Pensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdf
Pensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdfPensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdf
Pensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdf
 
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxFinancial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
 
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
 
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdfWho Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
 

Bajaj Hindustan

  • 1. 3QSY2010 result update | Sugar August 12, 2010 Bajaj Hindusthan NEUTRAL CMP Rs117 Performance Highlights Target Price - Parameter (Rs cr) 3QSY10 3QSY09 % yoy 2QSY10 % qoq Investment Period - Total revenue 728 399 82 585 24 Stock Info EBITDA 73 138 (47) 96 (24) EBITDA margin (%) 10.2 35.9 16.9 Sector Sugar PAT (15) 62 (15) Market Cap (Rs cr) 2,231 Beta 1 Source: Company, Angel Research 52 Week High / Low 243/99 For 3QSY2010, Bajaj Hindusthan (BJH) reported lower-than-estimated results, Avg. Daily Volume 1089123 mainly due to increased cane cost and higher contribution from levy sales. For Face Value (Rs) 1 3QSY2010, BJH reported an 82% increase in total sales to Rs728cr, while posting BSE Sensex 18,043 a loss of Rs15cr in the bottom line, against a profit of Rs62cr in 3QSY2009. We Nifty 5,416 have pruned our SY2012 estimates due to poor 3QSY2010 performance and the Reuters Code BJHN.BO likely carry forward of high-cost inventory in the next season. At the current level, Bloomberg Code BJH@IN the stock is trading at fair valuations. Thus, we maintain our Neutral view on BJH. High raw-material cost, levy sales impact margin: Gross margin declined by 25% Shareholding Pattern (%) to 18% in 3QSY2010 from 43% in 3QSY2009 due to increased cane cost and higher contribution from levy sales. BJH incurred a cost of Rs2,470/tonne on cane Promoters 41.8 in SY2010, as against Rs1,494/tonne spent in SY2009, an increase of 65% yoy. MF / Banks / Indian Fls 9.8 Further, BJH booked losses of Rs9/kg (on revised levy price of Rs18/kg) because of FII / NRIs / OCBs 16.5 higher levy quota sales. Indian Public / Others 31.9 Outlook and valuation: Going ahead, sugar prices are likely to be under pressure due to higher-than-expected sugar production in India and Brazil. Domestic ex-mill Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr prices have corrected from the highs of Rs42/kg to Rs28–29/kg, while the cost of Sensex 5.1 20.3 21.6 inventory is at Rs28/kg. Thus, we estimate most sugar companies to break even or BJH 6.3 (39.4) (14.9) record miniscule losses at net level over the next three months. At the current level, the stock is trading at fair valuations of 1.1x P/B and enterprise value/invested capital on SY2011E estimates. Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated) Y/E Sept. (Rs cr) SY2008 SY2009 SY2010E SY2011E Total revenue 2,070 2,026 3,626 6,106 % chg 16.3 (2.1) 79.0 68.4 Adj. profit (90) (33) (2) 115 % chg 167.4 - - - EBITDA margin (%) 14.2 20.8 15.3 10.6 EPS (Rs) - - - 5.4 P/E (x) - - - 21.8 P/BV (x) 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 RoE (%) - - - 5.1 RoCE (%) 0.3 1.3 4.4 5.0 EV/Sales (x) 2.8 3.0 1.6 0.8 Sageraj Bariya EV/EBITDA (x) 19.7 14.2 10.4 7.8 022-40403800 Extn: 346 EV/IC (x) 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 3QSY2010 performance (Standalone) Y/E Sept. (Rs cr) 3QSY10 3QSY09 % chg 9MSY10 9MSY09 % chg Sales 716 384 1899 1168 Other Op Income 12 16 90 109 Total Revenue 728 399 82 1989 1278 56 Consumption of RM 585 217 1269 691 (% of Sales) 80 54 0 0 Gross Profit 131 167 (22) 629 478 32 Gross margin (%) 18.3 43.5 33.1 40.9 Staff Costs 24 23 99 88 (% of Sales) 3 6 0 0 Other Expenses 46 21 190 118 (% of Sales) 6 5 10 9 Total Expenditure 655 262 1558 897 as % of sales 90 66 78 70 EBITDA 73 138 (47) 431 381 13 EBITDA % 10 36 23 33 Depreciation 53 48 11 150 151 (1) EBIT 20 90 281 230 EBIT % 3 23 14 18 Other Income 15 34 18 34 Interest 71 50 42 181 161 13 PBT (excl. Extr. Items) (36) 74 117 103 14 Extr. (Income)/Expense 0 2 0 (1) PBT (incl. Extr. Items) (36) 73 117 105 Provision for Taxation (21) 12 15 19 (% of PBT) 58 17 13 19 Reported PAT (15) 60 102 85 NPM (%) (2) 15 5 7 Equity capital (cr) 19 18 19 18 EPS - 3.4 5.3 4.8 Source: Company, Angel Research August 12, 2010 2
  • 3. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Strong realisations and higher volume support sales growth: Total revenue for 3QSY2010 grew 82% yoy to Rs728cr (Rs399cr). Sales of the company’s sugar division grew by 92% yoy, while sales of the distillery division increased by 52% yoy. On the volume front, the sugar division witnessed 58% growth, while the distillery division witnessed 72% growth. Exhibit 2: Sugar volume trend Exhibit 3: Sugar realisation trend 0.30 35 32 33 0.25 0.25 30 27 0.20 0.18 25 22 22 23 0.20 0.18 0.18 (mn tonnes) 0.16 0.15 17 20 (Rs/kg) 0.15 15 0.10 10 0.05 5 0.00 0 1QSY09 2QSY09 3QSY09 4QSY09 1QSY10 2QSY10 3QSY10 1QSY09 2QSY09 3QSY09 4QSY09 1QSY10 2QSY10 3QSY10 Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Distillery realisations witnessed a 12% decline in 3QSY2010 to Rs25/litre from Rs28/litre. The higher inventory build-up and subsequent liquidation led to a decline in realisations. Exhibit 4: Distillery volume trend Exhibit 5: Distillery realisation trend 18 17 30 29 16 14 29 13 28 28 14 28 12 27 27 26 26 (mn liters (Rs/liter) 10 8 26 8 6 25 25 6 4 3 24 4 2 23 0 22 1QSY09 2QSY09 3QSY09 4QSY09 1QSY10 2QSY10 3QSY10 1QSY09 2QSY09 3QSY09 4QSY09 1QSY10 2QSY10 3QSY10 Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Increased raw-material cost, high contribution of levy sales impact margin: BJH’s gross margin stood at 18%, declining 25%, in 3QSY2010 (43% in 3QSY2009). Margin was hit due to the increase in cane costs and a higher contribution of levy sales. BJH incurred a cost of Rs2,470/tonne of cane in SY2010, as against Rs1,494/tonne in SY2009, an increase of 65% yoy. Cane prices were driven by high demand from mill operators, as sugar prices kept increasing, while the area under cane cultivation remained flat during the season. The levy quota (sales to PDS) increased to 20% in SY2010, from 10% in SY2009, due to the shortage in sugar production. Levy sugar is being sold at a fixed price of Rs18/kg, which led to a loss of Rs9/kg to the company during 3QSY2010. August 12, 2010 3
  • 4. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Exhibit 6: Segmental performance (Standalone) Y/E Sept. (Rs cr) 3QSY10 3QSY09 % chg 9MSY10 9MSY09 % chg Revenue Sugar 703 366 91.9 1869 1130 65.4 Distillery 36 24 51.5 225 75 199.2 Cogen 22 2 169 82 106.4 Total revenue 761 392 94.4 2263 1287 75.8 PBIT Sugar 6 95 169 100 Distillery 10 0 17 (8) Cogen 14 (5) 136 53 Total PBIT 30 90 322 145 PBIT margin Sugar 1 26 9 9 Distillery 27 0 7 (10) Cogen 62 - 80 64 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 7: 3QSY2010 – Quantitative data (Standalone) Y/E Sept. 3QSY10 3QSY09 % chg 9MSY10 9MSY09 % chg Cane crushed (mn tonnes) 0.2 0.0 8.5 5.4 Production Sugar Cane-based (mn tonnes) 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 Raw (mn tonnes) 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 Distillery (mn litres) 27.2 8.3 70.3 31.2 Sales Sugar (mn tonnes) 0.2 0.2 58.2 0.6 0.5 9.4 Distillery (mn litres) 14.4 8.4 71.5 33.2 29.0 14.4 Power (mn units) 19.1 0.3 124.7 73.2 Realisations Sugar (Rs/kg) 26.7 22.2 20.3 31.1 19.9 56.3 Distillery (Rs/litre) 24.6 27.8 (11.6) 25.8 25.3 1.9 Power (Rs/unit) 4.2 3.2 31.3 4.1 3.2 29.5 Source: Company, Angel Research August 12, 2010 4
  • 5. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Investment arguments Domestic sugar supply easing India's sugar production is estimated to have increased by 27% to 18.5mn–19mn tonnes in SY2010E as against 14.6mn tonnes in SY2009. This was on account of higher drawal rate of 65% against 53% witnessed last year, as mills offered higher compensation to farmers compared to the unorganised sector. Cane realisations for farmers in the current rally have increased by 73% to Rs2,600/tonne, while they moved up 18% in SY2004, 7% in SY2005 and 10% in SY2006. In anticipation of this positive trend extending, an increasing number of farmers is expected to switch over to cane cultivation, thus resulting in the area under cane cultivation to once again hit the SY2007 peak level of 5.2mn hectares (mn ha) in SY2011E. Exhibit 8: Sugar cane and sugar production estimate Sugar cane production SY2004 SY2005 SY2006 SY2007 SY2008 SY2009 SY2010E SY2011E Area under cane (mn ha) 3.9 3.7 4.2 5.2 5.0 4.4 4.3 5.2 % yoy (12.9) (7.0) 14.7 22.6 (2.9) (12.1) (3.3) 22.4 Cane production (mn tonnes) 233.9 237.1 281.2 355.5 341.0 272.5 293.3 338.0 Yield per hectare (tonnes) 59.4 64.8 66.9 69.0 68.2 62.0 69.0 65.0 Drawal (%) 57 53 67 78 73 53 65 78 Total cane crushed (mn tonnes) 132.5 124.8 188.7 278.9 250.0 145.0 191.0 263.6 Sugar prod. (mn tonnes) 13.5 12.7 19.3 28.3 26.3 14.6 18.5 26.7 Avg. recovery (%) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.5 10.1 9.7 10.1 Sugar production mn tonnes Opening stock 12.4 8.2 4.5 3.4 9.8 8.1 4.4 4.4 Production 13.5 12.7 19.3 28.3 26.3 14.6 18.5 26.7 Domestic consumption 17.9 18.5 19.3 20.2 22.5 22.5 23.1 23.6 % yoy 3.4 4.3 4.7 11.4 0.0 2.5 2.5 Exports 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.7 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Imports 0.4 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.6 0.0 Closing stock 8.2 4.5 3.4 9.8 8.8 4.4 4.4 7.5 Closing stock (months) 5.5 2.9 2.1 5.8 4.7 2.3 2.3 3.8 Stock-to-use ratio (%) 46 24 18 49 39 20 19 32 Source: Industry, Company, Angel Research Given the increasing number of farmers switching to cane cultivation, sugarcane supply is further likely to ease in SY2011E. This would result in cane realisations turning unattractive from the unorganised sector and will force famers to shift over to mills for better realisations. Hence, we expect the drawal rate to once again hit the SY2007 peak level of 78% in SY2011E, resulting in total sugar production of 26.7mn tonnes. Moreover, with consumption likely to be 24mn tonnes in SY2011E, India would end the year with an overall inventory of 7.5mn tonnes, equivalent to 3.8 months of consumption and an improvement over SY2010. August 12, 2010 5
  • 6. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Profits to be impacted by high raw inventory BJH bought the largest raw sugar inventory of 700,000 tonnes in the industry, contracted at US $467/tonne and translating into total cost of Rs28/kg for refined sugar. Thus, due to the decline in sugar realisations, we expect the company's EBITDA margin in refined sugar to be affected severely. Low contribution from high-margin power business v/s peers BJH, though the largest sugar manufacturer in India, has lagged competition in terms of diversifying and enhancing its revenue and profitability profile compared to peers. BJH was also a late entrant in the high EBITDA margin (60%) power generation (external sales) business. Pertinently, every sugar manufacturing process has bagasse as a by-product, which can be used as feedstock to generate power. Balrampur Chini Mills (BRCM), the second largest player in the industry, forayed into the power segment as early as 2003, while BJH’s power division logged in its first full year of performance in SY2008. BJH’s power division has total installed capacity of 428MW with external saleable capacity of 105MW or 25% of installed capacity. BRCM has total installed capacity of 180MW and external saleable capacity of 126MW or 70% of installed capacity. Thus, as is apparent, BJH has high internal power consumption, resulting in lower external sale of power. Outlook and valuation BJH’s 3QSY2010 performance was below our expectation. Going ahead, sugar prices are likely to be under pressure because of higher-than-estimated sugar production in India and Brazil. Hence, sugar demand-supply would achieve a balance in SY2011E, resulting in further softening of prices. Domestic ex-mill prices have corrected from the high of Rs42/kg to Rs28–29/kg, while inventory is in the range of Rs26–27/kg. Thus, we estimate most sugar companies to break even or record miniscule losses at the net level over the next six months. We have cut our SY2011E estimates because of the higher carry forward high-cost inventory. At the current level of Rs117, the stock is trading at 1.1x P/BV and enterprise value/invested capital on SY2011E estimates, near its fair valuations. Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Exhibit 9: Change in estimates Old New % change Parameter (Rs cr) SY2010 SY2011 SY2010 SY2011 SY2010 SY2011 Sales 5,485 5,133 3,626 6,106 (34) 19 EBITDA 202 781 555 646 175 (17) EBITDA % 4 15 15 11 PAT (267) 224 (2) 115 (99) (49) EPS - 10 - 5 - (44) Source: Company, Angel Research August 12, 2010 6
  • 7. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Exhibit 10: Key assumption SY2010E SY2011E Capacity (‘000 tcd) 136 136 Utilisation (%) 48 92 No. of days 72 138 Cane crushed (mn tonnes) 10 19 Recovery rate (%) 9 10 Sugar produced (MT) 895,800 1,876,800 Sugar sales (mn tonnes) 877,572 2,070,028 Levy realisation (Rs/kg) 18 18 Free sale realisation (Rs/kg) 31 24 Blended realisation - Net (Rs/kg) 28 23 Cost of cane (Rs/tonne) 2,470 1,800 Refinery based sugar ( tonnes) 280,000 210,000 Realisation (Rs/kg) 31 24 Alcohol sales (mn kl) 57 139 Realisation per litre 26 26 Cogen units – surplus (mn units) 162 396 Realisation per unit 4 4 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 11: Peer valuation Peer valuation Reco. Mcap CMP P/E P/B EV/EBITDA RoE (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) SY10 SY11 SY10 SY11 SY10 SY11 SY10 SY11 Balrampur Chini Neutral 2,146 84 18.7 7.3 1.8 1.6 9.2 5.3 9.8 22.5 Bajaj Hindusthan Neutral 2,505 117 - 21.8 1.1 1.1 10.4 7.8 - 5.1 Shree Renuka Sugar - 4,484 67 5.9 9.3 1.9 1.6 5.0 6.2 32.9 17.4 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 12: One-year forward EV/IC band 12,000 10,000 8,000 (Rs cr) 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Apr-07 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 EV 0.8x 1.1x 1.3x 1.6x 1.8x Source: Company, Angel Research August 12, 2010 7
  • 8. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Exhibit 13: One-year forward P/B band 600 500 400 (Rs) 300 200 100 0 Apr-09 Jul-10 Aug-07 Oct-06 Mar-07 Feb-10 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jun-08 Jan-08 Price 1x 2x 3x 4x 4x Source: Company, Angel Research August 12, 2010 8
  • 9. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Y/E Sept. (Rs cr) SY06 SY07 SY08 SY09 SY10E SY11E Total operating income 1,483 1,780 2,070 2,026 3,626 6,106 % chg 77.2 20.1 16.3 (2.1) 79.0 68.4 Total Expenditure 1,169 1,590 1,776 1,605 3,071 5,460 Net Raw Materials 975 1,205 1,369 1,221 2,536 4,423 Other Mfg costs 10 16 24 29 31 55 Personnel 58 142 148 165 135 328 Other 126 226 234 189 368 655 EBITDA 313 191 294 421 555 646 % chg 56.2 (39.2) 54.2 43.2 31.7 16.4 (% of Net Sales) 21.1 10.7 14.2 20.8 15.3 10.6 Depreciation& Amortisation 76 161 280 346 292 373 EBIT 237 30 14 76 263 273 % chg 43.5 (87.5) (51.8) 430.1 247.3 3.8 (% of Net Sales) 16.0 1.7 0.7 3.7 7.3 4.5 Interest & other Charges 23 139 278 263 307 250 Other Income 87 80 121 141 29 121 (% of PBT) 29 - - - - 84 Recurring PBT 302 (29) (143) (47) (16) 144 % chg 77.1 - - - - - Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - 130 (152) - - PBT (reported) 302 (29) (273) 105 (16) 144 Tax 117 (20) (98) 46 (3) 29 (% of PBT) 38.9 68.1 35.9 43.4 20.0 20.0 PAT (reported) 185 (9) (175) 60 (12) 115 Add: Share of earnings of associate 4 5 6 7 8 9 Less: Minority interest (MI) - (11) 17 2 11 - Prior period items - - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 185 (21) (157) 62 (2) 115 ADJ. PAT 226 (34) (90) (33) (2) 115 % chg 77.1 - - - - - (% of Net Sales) 15.3 - - - - 1.9 Basic EPS (Rs) 16.0 - - - - 5.4 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 16.0 - - - - 5.4 % chg 45.7 - - - - - August 12, 2010 9
  • 10. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet Statement (Consolidated) Y/E Sept. (Rs cr) SY06 SY07 SY08 SY09 SY10E SY11E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 14 14 14 18 21 21 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves & Surplus 1,347 1,392 1,187 2,096 2,168 2,296 Shareholders’ Funds 1,361 1,406 1,201 2,114 2,190 2,318 Minority Interest - 23 67 65 76 - Total Loans 1,541 3,593 4,335 4,056 3,439 2,820 Deferred Tax Liability 126 105 4 49 49 49 Total Liabilities 3,029 5,127 5,608 6,283 5,753 5,186 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 1,379 2,922 4,745 5,295 5,315 5,330 Less: Acc. Depreciation 305 467 719 1,060 1,352 1,724 Net Block 1,074 2,455 4,026 4,235 3,964 3,606 Capital Work-in-Progress 1,472 1,630 159 155 155 155 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 Current Assets 4 5 6 7 8 9 Cash 231 267 174 127 164 321 Loans & Advances 444 1,240 1,571 1,859 1,813 1,832 Other 210 548 847 1,006 1,146 1,846 Current liabilities 402 1,013 1,169 1,100 1,488 2,573 Net Current Assets 483 1,042 1,423 1,893 1,635 1,426 Mis. Exp. not written off - (0) - - - - Total Assets 3,029 5,127 5,608 6,283 5,753 5,186 August 12, 2010 10
  • 11. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Y/E Sept. (Rs cr) SY06 SY07 SY08 SY09 SY10E SY11E Profit before tax 280 (29) (293) 105 (16) 144 Depreciation 72 161 280 346 292 373 Change in Working Capital (357) (25) (128) (263) 639 550 Less: Other income - - - - - - Direct taxes paid (73) (20) (25) (14) 3 (25) Cash Flow from Operations (77) 88 (166) 174 918 1,042 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (1,229.3) (1,696.9) (291.6) (160.4) (20.0) (15.0) (Inc.)/ Dec.) in Investments (148.3) (301.5) (1.2) 35.0 - - Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances - - - - - - Other income - - - - - - Cash Flow from Investing (1,378) (1,998) (293) (125) (20) (15) Issue of Equity 734 31 5 742 78 - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 996 2,052 620 (428) (617) (619) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (8) (10) (10) (10) (14) - Others (50) (126) (250) (399) (307) (250) Cash Flow from Financing 1,672 1,947 365 (95) (861) (869) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 217.5 36.2 (93.4) (46.8) 36.7 157.2 Opening Cash balances 6 231 267 174 127 164 Closing Cash balances 223 267 174 127 164 321 August 12, 2010 11
  • 12. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E Sept. SY06 SY07 SY08 SY09 SY10E SY11E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 7.3 - - - - 21.8 P/CEPS 5.5 12.9 8.7 6.6 8.6 5.1 P/BV 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 - 2.1 EV/Sales 2.0 2.8 2.8 3.0 1.6 0.8 EV/EBITDA 9.4 26.1 19.7 14.2 10.4 7.8 EV / Total Assets 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 EV / IC 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 16.0 - - - - 5.4 EPS (fully diluted) 16.0 - - - - 5.4 Cash EPS 21.4 9.0 13.4 17.7 13.5 22.7 DPS 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 - 2.5 Book Value 96.3 99.4 85.0 119.5 101.9 107.8 DuPont Analysis EBIT margin 16.0 1.7 0.7 3.7 7.3 4.5 Tax retention ratio 61.1 31.9 64.1 56.6 80.0 80.0 Asset turnover (x) 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.3 ROIC (Post-tax) 11.0 0.3 0.2 0.7 3.9 4.6 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 3.0 1.7 4.1 4.6 6.6 6.4 Leverage (x) 0.9 1.7 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.3 Operating ROE 18.3 - - - - 2.4 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 11.3 0.7 0.3 1.3 4.4 5.0 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 8.5 0.6 0.3 1.2 4.7 5.6 ROE 22.9 - - - - 5.1 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.1 Inventory / Sales (days) 24 59 108 158 101 81 Receivables (days) 10 18 15 9 8 8 Payables (days) 40 105 172 212 135 125 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 41 105 178 272 163 77 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 1.0 2.4 3.5 1.9 1.5 1.1 Net debt to EBITDA 4.2 17.4 14.1 9.3 5.9 3.9 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 10.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 August 12, 2010 12
  • 13. Bajaj Hindusthan | 3QSY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Bajaj Hindusthan 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) August 12, 2010 13