Presentation made by Andy Jarvis from the Decision and Policy Analysis Program of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Delivered at Supagro in Montpellier, France in November 2009.

1. Climate change and agriculture: How models can guide our adaptation strategies Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Edward Guevara, Peter Laderach and Emmanuel Zapata Program Leader, Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT

5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

6. How can we be sure that it is changing?

9. Arctic Ice is Melting

13. So, what do they say?

15. Changes in rainfall…

17. BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3

18. BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3

20. The Impacts on Crop Suitability

23. Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s

24. Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain

25. Message 1 Global suitability for agriculture reduces moderately, but problems of food distribution are exacerbated

26. But what about land-use and biodiversity distribution in 2050?

28. Results: protected areas per region Current extent of in situ conservation Global biodiversity currently well conserved

34. Message 2 There will be greater pressure on land resources for multiple uses, as currently non-arable land becomes arable, and as we face massive biodiversity loss

35. Minimising impacts: Breeding for beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) towards 2020

36. How are beans standing up currently? Parameters determined based on statistical analysis of current bean growing environments from the Africa and LAC Bean Atlases.

37. What will likely happen? 2020 – A2 2020 – A2 - changes

38. GCM Uncertainties COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION PERCENT OF MODELS WITH AGREED DIRECTION

40. Technology options: breeding for drought and waterlogging tolerance Some 22.8% (3.8 million ha) would benefit from drought tolerance improvement to 2020s Drought tolerance Waterlogging tolerance

41. Technology options: breeding for heat and cold tolerance Cold tolerance Heat tolerance Some 42.7% (7.2 million ha) would benefit from heat tolerance improvement to 2020s

42. Impacts on production of cassava

44. Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts

45. …… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

46. …… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

47. Pest and Disease Impacts

48. Impacts on whitefly to 2020

49. Message 3 Global impacts can be addressed in many cases through existing diversity, or through crop improvement, but we must start planning now

53. Adaptation Options Management New markets Alternatives to coffee

54. Message 4 Locally, some significant upheavals could occur in terms of economies, cultures, and land-use patterns

55. But it is worse in Central America

61. So what do we do?

63. [email_address]