Global Warming and the Seed Industry

1. CLimate change And the seed industry

2. Content
I. The context 2
II. Impact of Climate Change on production 3
III. The sustainable solution: Plant Breeding 4
IV. Conclusions 7
V. Notes 8
VII. Contact 9

3. 2
I. The context
Climate Change is now widely recognized as one of the major issues facing the entire globe. Temperatures across the world could rise up to 6°C by 2050. The main challenges from Climate Change to agriculture and food production are the more frequent and severe drought and floods, and higher pressure from insects and diseases on plants and consequent loss of yield. (1)
With that, Climate change is threatening to push up the number of hungry people due to negative impacts on food production, while at the same time the growing global population will create an increased demand which will need to be produced on not much more land, using less water, fertilizer and pesticides than we have historically done. (2)
While this may still be achievable, but it must be tackled coherently with other global challenges of climate change like cleaner sustained energy and water security: it is predicted that by 2030 the world will not only need to produce around 50 percent more food but also 50 percent more energy and 30 percent more fresh water, whilst mitigating and adapting to climate change. This threatens to create a ‘perfect storm’ of global events inextricably linked. (3)
One of the most effective ways for crop production to be increased despite these enormous new challenges from climate change is to address new varieties with improved genetics. On this concern, Plant Breeding has to play a crucial role to combat climate change!

4. II. Impact of Climate Change on production
Climate is changing at an unprecedented rate and the magnitude of change is highly variable from place to place. Therefore, the degree of fit of plant varieties to environment will vary between regions and over time. Some Predictions are explaining that if global temperatures do not increase more than 6°C over the next century, arable agricultural production can probably adapt to changes in mean global temperature using breeding, selection and management. (4)
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Source: The potential effects of climate change on world food production and security, FAO, 1996

5. 4
Plant breeding, however, is a long-term exercise, e.g. 10 years or more for a new cereal variety, and there is usually a lag phase of about 7-8 years between variety development and adoption by farmers. (5) The impact of climate change on production of various crops varies markedly depending mainly on the region, growing season, the crops and their temperature thresholds. Cereals, oilseed and protein crops depend on temperature and, in many cases, day length, to reach maturity. Temperature increase may shorten the length of the growing period for these crops and, in the absence of compensatory management responses, reduce yields and change the area of cultivation by rendering unsuitable some currently cultivated areas and suitable, others not currently cultivated. (6)
III. The Sustainable Solution: Plant Breeding
The genetic diversity of crop plants is the foundation for the sustainable development of new varieties for present and future challenges. (7)
Plant breeding can develop varieties to cope with climate change through many different techniques ranging from desirable traits for propagation to more complex classical or molecular techniques. (8)
Increasing the productivity in regions of Europe where there is a significant yield gap between actual yields and agro-ecological potential is a real chance to address domestic food security in Europe without expanding land use. (9)
In this regard, also the chemical industry is needed to achieve its sustainable development goals and to tackle climate change. For example, petrochemicals account for less than 6% of the total petrol production and are essential building blocks which provide solutions to save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Petrochemicals innovations also contribute to many downstream sectors such as clothing, computers, paper, housing and transportation. (10)
Another sustainable solution can be through a better water use efficiency – with clean water becoming a more pressurised commodity for human health and welfare the optimisation of agricultural water use becomes a significant element of sustainable intensification.

6. Concentration of production in regions where rain fed agriculture is possible reduces the pressure to produce where irrigation from rivers or aquifers is required. Transpiration rates within regions are assumed to be relatively uniform for land cropped with a particular species and therefore again, output per unit area in a region is a close approximation for water use efficiency.
Also Green House Gas (GHG) efficiency is an issue. To meet EU global obligations to optimise production at the lowest levels of GHG emissions then the GHG emission per unit of productivity is important. GHG sequestration by the crop itself should be discounted because this is short cycle Carbon released relatively quickly in the food system following harvest and consumption of the crop. The predominant source of GHG emissions in crop production relate to cultivation, mineral fertiliser and transport. Optimum production per unit GHG emitted can be tested by testing the crop yield of varieties at an environmentally optimum input level and land use area. GHG emissions from land use substitution should also be taken into account in determining the environmentally optimum input level. (11)
To minimize the impacts of these climate and other environmental changes, it will be crucial to breed new varieties for improved resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses. Plant breeders need to increase their attention to breeding varieties that have greater tolerance to local abiotic stresses such as drought, flooding and extreme temperatures as well as continuing to breed for resistance to pests and diseases.
Priorities for breeding should consider the magnitude of the predicted impacts on productivity of the crop and the opportunities for significant gains through breeding. Genetic diversity in the wild relatives of domesticated crops provides rich resources on which to build priority breeding programmes for climate change-tolerant varieties. (12)
Crop breeders now need to urgently turn their attention to the introduction of drought and heat resistance into crop varieties to reduce losses of yield from climate change impacts and to allow cultivation in areas that are not currently suitable or that will become unsuitable. The large majority of new crop varieties released have been bred for improved resistance to pests and diseases, yet it is claimed that abiotic stress is the primary cause of crop loss, reducing average yields of most major crops by more than 50%. This proportion will rise with increasing irregularity of climate and frequency of extreme climate events. (13)
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7. Crops require tolerance to different abiotic stresses depending on where they are grown. Rice, for example, thrives in waterlogged soil and can tolerate submergence at levels that would kill other crops, is moderately tolerant of salinity and soil acidity, but is highly sensitive to drought and cold. Adapting crop varieties to local ecological conditions will reduce risk due to climate change; however, varieties improved for cultivation in one region could be adopted for cultivation elsewhere, where they would face the same abiotic and biotic stresses. (14)
Areas suitable for cultivation of a wide range of the world’s most important crops will shift as a result of climate change. Overall, suitable areas will increase, but most affected by loss of area will generally be regions that are already struggling from the impacts of irregular and extreme climate events. Regions such as Europe, Antarctica and North America stand to gain additional area for cultivation. At the crop level, 23 crops are predicted to gain suitable area while 20 are predicted to lose, including the cereals wheat, rye and oats. Further analysis is needed to identify priority species and areas to target for climate adaptation strategies, particularly for improved climate change- tolerant varieties.
Plant breeders now need to focus on the future as well as the present, and evaluate the vast genetic resources in gene banks and in the wild that hold potential for adaptation of major crops to a changing climate The rich species and genetic diversity that exists in landraces and wild species should be exploited and local knowledge used to guide crop and variety selection. Adapting crops to climate conditions will allow cultivation to continue on current areas as well as taking advantage of new suitable areas.
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8. IV. Conclusions
 Climate Change can be tackled through plant breeding and better use of plant genetic resources
 Plant breeding is the art and science of genetically improving plants for the benefit of humankind. It is practiced worldwide by professional plant breeders, with a proven track record over centuries.
 All the wheat, rice, corn or potatoes in our diet come from varieties developed by plant breeders and grown by farmers around the world. With the discovery of genetics, plant breeding became a more reliable means to improve varieties. Now, with a modern biotechnology, a tool used in plant breeding, the development of new adapted varieties has become a more precise and rapid process to guarantee an outstanding quality and performance. Environmental stresses have become more frequent and aggravated by rapid climate change in recent decades, and plant breeding is an essential part of the solution. (15)
 The science supporting plant breeding is advancing rapidly, and with sustained support, plant breeding will make an even greater contribution to feeding the world. Science has contributed greatly in the past to finding solutions, and it can do so into the future if the investments are made. A new greener revolution can be built on the foundations of the first green revolution, but we will need to fully explore the range of science and technology opportunities at our disposal in the 21st century in order to overcome the greater constraints. This vital contribution from science will not happen by default.
Many new improved varieties are environmentally friendly, ensuring food security, while conserving the environment. Genetic diversity and plant breeding are key elements in tackling climate change, and inte- gration of plant breeding in climate change strategies is one of the best paths to sustainable food produc- tion.
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9. V. Notes
1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_security
3 http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/ustransp.pdf
4-6-13-14 Changes in Climate will modify the Geography of Crop Suitability: Agricultural Biodiversity can help with Adaptation, Lane and Jarvis 2007
7-8-15 http://km.fao.org/gipb/images/pdf_files/GIPB_Advocacy/ Gipb_Leaflet_PB_ClimateChange_A4_EN.pdf
9 http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/expert_paper/ How_to_Feed_the_World_in_2050.pdf
10 http://www.xperimania.net/ww/en/pub/xperimania/news/world_of_materials/climate_change.htm
11 http://www-fa.upc.es/personals/fluids/oriol/ale/eolss.pdf
12 http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1500e/i1500e16.pdf
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10. Contact
ESA European Seed Association
Rue du Luxembourg 23
1000 Brussels (Belgium)
T: +32 2 743 28 60
F: +32 2 743 28 69
Email: secretariat@euroseeds.org
Website: www.euroseeds.org
Find us also on:
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