The document discusses the impacts of global climate change on Indian agriculture. It notes that rising global temperatures are projected to decrease cereal production in India by 10-40% by 2100, especially for wheat. Higher temperatures will reduce wheat yields by 4-5 million tons for every 1 degree Celsius of warming. The document outlines key adaptation strategies for Indian agriculture, such as developing short-term heat and drought resistant crop varieties and improved water management practices. It also discusses opportunities for climate change mitigation through agricultural practices that sequester carbon in soils like minimal tillage and agroforestry.

2. AGRO
303
SEMI
NAR
TOPIC:- GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES & IT’SEFFECTS ON
INDIAN AGRICULTURE

3. INTRODUCTIO
N
There was a country. People were
happily living by fishing & other activities
depending upon the surrounding sea.
Suddenly the sea begins to rise..Within a
century..The whole island country sinks..Along
with it sinks the 300000 lives..their Culture..&
Heritage…
Some how some ambitious people had
seen the future in advance. They had shelters in
other countries…They survived..along with them
their legend…

4.  Friends…This is not a story. The Country in our
discussion is Maldives.
 According to IPCC,there are 20 countries around the
world which are on the verge of extinction due to rise in
sea level resulting from GLOBAL WARMING..
The last days of paradise are on….
What We aspire to give our future generation is
nothing but a world worth not living….

5. Its now Maldives….Days are not far..When
India will be witnessing Such things….
Is this reality..???
Lets Ponder over it..Lets Ponder over it..

6. INDIA AND
AGRICULTURE
 Population : 1,261,850,000
 % Share of Agri. in GDP : 13% (2012-13)
 Area under Agriculture : 50 % (160 mha)
 Population dependent on Agriculture: 70%
 Average farm size: : 1 to5 ha
 Landless dependent on others
 Total. Area Irrigated Prod Earnings % of GDP
(mha) (mha) (mt). (Rs.)
Rice 42 20 73 365 22
Wheat 24 21 57 208
12.6

7. CURRENT ISSUES IN
AGRICULTURE
Overproduction in short-term, yet food
insecurity for a large population
Stagnation/decline in yields
Diversification
Natural resource management-input
use efficiencies, narrow genetic base
Quality and quantity of water resources
Profitability: Increasing cost and
deceleration in TFP growth

8. EMERGING SCENARIO:
DRIVERS OF AGRICULTURAL
TRANSFORMATION
 Increasing population leading to higher
demand of food
 Increasing urbanization
 Increasing inter- and intra-sectoral
competition for resources: land, water,
energy, credit
 Increasing globalization: removal of trade
barriers, information and communication
 New technologies: Biotechnology, space and
information technology
 Increasing privatization of agricultural
extension

9. GLOBAL CLIMATIC
CHANGE
 Global mean temperatures have increased
by 0.74oC during last 100 years
 GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide)
increase, caused by fossil fuel use and
land use changes, main reasons.
 Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100
AD. Greater increase in rabi
 Precipitation likely to increase in kharif
 Snow cover is projected to contract
 More frequent hot extremes, heavy
precipitations
 Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.

11. CONTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT SECTORS
IN WORLD TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
(SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS)

12. WHAT IS THE CONTRIBUTION OF
DIFFERENT SECTORS IN INDIA TO
CLIMATE CHANGE?
(SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS IN INDIA)
Industrial
processes
8%
Wastes
2%
Land use
changes
1%
Agriculture
28%
Energy
61%

13. WHAT SECTORS OF AGRICULTURE IN
INDIA CONTRIBUTE TO CLIMATE
CHANGE?
Rice cultivation
23%
Manure
management
5%
Emission from
soils
12%
Enteric
fermentation
59%
Crop residues
1%

14. ESTIMATES OF FUTURE
LEVELS OF CO2
Year CO2, ppm
2000 369
2010-2015 388-398
2050/2060 463-623
2100 478-1099

15. MOST OF THE GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS ARE FROM
THE INDUSTRIALIZED
COUNTRIES
Europe
Africa
Japan, Australia
and New zealand
South AsiaEast Asia
USA and Canada
Latin America
Middle East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Region
tonsofCO2eq/capita

16. CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIOS FOR INDIA
Year Season Increase in
Temperature,
o
C
Change in
Rainfall, %
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.362020s
Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10
Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.822050s
Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52
Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.502080s
Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18

17. OTHER OBSERVATIONS OF
CHANGE IN GLOBAL
CLIMATE
Globally, hot days, hot nights,
and heat waves have become
more frequent.
Frequency of heavy
precipitation events has
increased over most land areas.
Global average sea level rose at
an average rate of 1.8 mm per
year over 1961 to 2003.

18. OTHER CHANGES IN
GLOBAL CLIMATE IN
FUTURE
 Tropical cyclones to become more
intense, with heavier precipitation.
 Snow cover is projected to contract.
 Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy
precipitation events will become
more frequent.
 The projected sea level rise to be 0.18
- 0.59 meters.

19. IMPACTS ON INDIAN
AGRICULTURE –LITERATURE
· Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase
of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about
0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in
winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45
ton/ha.
· Rao and Sinha (1994) – showed that wheat yields could
decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2
fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34%
after considering CO2 fertilization effects.
 Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) – using WTGROWS model
showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease wheat
yields in most places.

20. • Lat et al. (1996) – concluded that carbon
fertilization effects would not be able to
offset the negative impacts of high
temperature on rice yields.
• Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for
every one degree rise in temperature the
decline in rice yield would be about 6%.
 Aggarwal et al. (2002) – using WTGROWS and
recent climate change scenarios estimated
impacts on wheat and other cereal crops.
All these studies focused only on agronomic
impacts of climate change.

21. CHANGE ON WHEAT PRODUCTION
IN INDIA
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Production,Mtons
Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)

22. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIAN
AGRICULTURE
 Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-
40% by 2100.
 Greater loss expected in rabi. Every
1o
C increase in temperature reduces
wheat production by 4-5 million tons.
Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers
could plant in time.
 Reduced frequency of frost damage:
less damage to potato, peas, mustard
 Increased droughts and floods are
likely to increase production
variability

23.  Increasing sea and river water temperatures are
likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and
harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
 Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and
insects
 Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer
requirement for the same production targets; and
result in higher emissions
 Increasing sea and river water temperatures are
likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and
harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
 Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement
for livestock; implications for milk production

24. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE- ANOTHER DRIVER IN
AGRICULTURE
Increase in CO2
Increase in temperature
Change in precipitation
Sea level rise
Variability and extreme events such
as floods and drought

25. IMPACTS ON
AGRICULTURE
 May alter spatial and temporal demands
and supply by impacting:
Food production
Stability and sustainability
Employment
Profitability
Trade & economy
Global financial crisis

26. INFORMATION NEEDS-
SCENARIOS
Changes in co2 with time
Spatial and temporal changes in temperature
and rainfall
Impact on groundwater and surface water
availability, floods and droughts, sea level
rise

27. IMPACT ASSESSMENT-
INFORMATION NEEDS
 Where, how and at what cost food (crops, livestock
products and fish) can be produced to meet the
increasing demand and/or what alternative
technologies would be needed to meet the desired
production targets?
 Which region and the social group would be more
affected as a consequence of global environmental
change?
 Which pests will start migrating to currently
uninfected areas?

28.  How does climate change affect the quality of
cereals, spices, medicinal plants, tea and coffee?
 How inter-state and international trade of different
commodities is likely to be affected by global
warming considering differential impacts on
competing states and countries?

29. ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
FRAMEWORK
 Greater demand for (quality) food; yields
need to increase by 30-50% by 2030
 Increasing urbanization and
globalization
 Increasing competition from other
sectors for land, energy, water and
capital
 Climate change a continuous process;
greater focus on short-term actions on
adaptation and mitigation

30. MITIGATION OF CLIMATIC CHANGE/ FEEDBACKS ON
ENVIRONMENT : INFORMATION NEEDS
Can alternate land use systems such as
plantation crops and agroforestry increase
carbon sequestration and yet meet food
demand?
How much area can be taken out from
agriculture for forestry; where and what
policy measures would be needed?

31. How much carbon is conserved by
limited tillage options? For how long and
in which regions?
What policies and technologies would
encourage the farmers to enrich organic
matter in the soil and thus improve soil
health?

32. KEY ADAPTATION
STRATEGIES Assisting farmers in coping with current
climatic risks
 Intensifying food production systems
 Improving land and water management
 Enabling policies
 Strengthening adaptation research
 New varieties: drought/heat resistant
 New farm management practices
 Change in land use
 Watershed management
 Agri-insurance

33. SEQUESTERING SOIL CARBON AND
MITIGATING GHGS
 Addition of organic manures, minimal
tillage, agro-forestry
 Alternate drying in irrigated paddies
 Management practices to increase
nitrogen use efficiency
 Increasing fuel efficiency in agri.
machines
 Improved management of livestock diet
These strategies have costs and other
implications

34. FACILITATING MECHANISMS
FOR PAYMENTS TO FARMERS
FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION
 CDM does not specifically include
carbon sequestration and mitigation
in agriculture
 Agricultural GHG mitigation options
are cost-competitive
 If included in future agreements,
would also lead to better soil fertility
and higher income for the farmers in
addition to the primary goal of
carbon sequestration.

35. INITIATIVES
OF ICAR
Thrust areas prioritized based on
consultation
A Network - ‘Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability of Indian
Agriculture to Climatic Change’
launched in 2004
Network expanded in 11th
plan with
23 centers

36.  Multi-Disciplinary Expert Group
established for planning and monitoring
 Climate change identified as a priority
area for National Agricultural
Innovations Project (NAIP) funding

37. CONCLUSIONSClimate change is a reality
Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses
due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased
irrigation availability
Adaptation strategies can help minimize
negative impacts
These need research, funding, and policy
support
Costs of adaptation and mitigation are
unknown but likely to be high; costs of
inaction could be even higher
Start with ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options

38. Climate change…Is it the
Beginning of the end..??
The earth is heating..So is the
environment..
Now..Its Upto Us..What We can
Do..??

39. NEED OF THE
HOUR
Come Forward..
Save Agriculture..to
sustain ourselves..

40.  PRESENTED TO,
 DR. P.V.N.PRASAD,
 PRINCIPLE SCIENTIST,
 COLLEGE FARM.

PRESENTED BY,
 SANDEEP SAMAL,
 BA-12-117,
BATCH-’C’,
3RD
YEAR B.SC(AG)