This document outlines a 5-step process for developing a climate change adaptation plan for land management. Step 1 involves defining management goals and objectives. Step 2 assesses potential climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the site. Step 3 evaluates how climate change may impact achieving management objectives. Step 4 identifies adaptation approaches and tactics. Step 5 establishes monitoring to evaluate effectiveness. An example application for Jerktail Mountain woodland management in Missouri is provided.

1. Adaptation Workbook Process

2. Step 1: DEFINE location, project, and time
frames.
Key Question:
 Where are you working?
 What are your management goals
and objectives for this area?

3. Step 1: DEFINE location, project, and
management goals.
Property or
Project Area:
Jerktail Mountain glade and woodland
Location:
Pioneer Forest and Ozark National Scenic Riverway, 9 miles
northeast of Eminence, Shannon County, Missouri
Forest Type Management Goals Management Objectives Time Frames
Woodland  Restore
woodland to
more natural
conditions.
 Reduce eastern
redcedar
encroachment.
 Increase component of
fire-tolerant species
 Use variable intensity
prescribed fire
 Reduce stand density
 Prescribed
burns 3-4 years
initially
 Harvest every
20-30 years

4. Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change
impacts and vulnerabilities.
Key Question:
 How might the area be uniquely
affected by climatic change and
subsequent impacts?
 How might regional impacts be
different in the project area?

5. Resource: Climate
Change Assessments
Adaptation Workbook Process

6. Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change
impacts and vulnerabilities.
Regional Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities
 From regional vulnerability assessments
Mgmt.
Unit or
Topic
Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Regional For the Property or Project Area
From vulnerability assessments Based on your knowledge of the site
Upland
forest
More extreme precipitation events Slope and soil on east side of property is
vulnerable to flooding/ponding
Increased potential for summer
drought
Hill tops are especially vulnerable to
growing season moisture stress

7. Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change
impacts and vulnerabilities.
Vulnerability Determination

8. Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change
impacts and vulnerabilities.
Example – Jerktail Mountain
Mgmt.
Unit or
Topic
Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Regional For the Property or Project Area
Woodland Mean annual temperature
increases from 2 °F to 7 °F.
Common species, such as black, red, and
scarlet oak are expected to be affected by
drier summers.
Some tree species are better adapted to
warm and dry conditions, such as
shortleaf pine and post oak.
Increased precipitation in winter
and spring and potential declines
in summer.
Increased frequency and severity
of wildfire
Woodlands adapted to frequent, low-
intensity fire, but not severe fire

9. Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives
given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Key Question:
 What management challenges or
opportunities might occur?
 Can current management meet
management goals?
 Do goals need to change?

10. Ecosystem Type or Management Topic – From Step 1
Management Objectives – From Step 1
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives
given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

11. Challenges to Meeting Management Objective with
Climate Change – Things that will make it harder to
achieve the management objective due to climate
change.
**Focus on challenges within control of your
management (not global markets, policies, etc.)
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives
given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

12. Opportunities to Meeting Management Objective
with Climate Change – Things that will make it easier
to achieve the management objective due to climate
change.
**Focus on challenges within control of your
management (not global markets, policies, etc.)
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives
given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

13. Feasibility – Can you meet your management
objectives using current (business-as-usual)
management actions?
 High: We can do it!
Opportunities > Challenges
 Low: We’ll need more resources or effort.
Challenges > Opportunities
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives
given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

14. Other Considerations – Social, financial, or other
factors that also affect your ability to meet objectives.
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives
given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

15. Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives
given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Slow down!
Are you going to
continue with these
management objectives?

16. Example – Jerktail Mountain Woodland
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives
given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Management
Objectives
(from Step #1) Challenges Opportunities Feasibility
Other
Considera-
tions
 Reduce eastern
redcedar
encroachment.
 Increase component of
fire-tolerant species
 Use variable intensity
prescribed fire
 Reduce stand density
 Reduce eastern
redcedar
encroachment.
 May need to shift
timing of prescribed
burns. Burn crews
must be planned for
months in advance.
 May need to do
some growing season
burns for brush
control-could run the
risk of scarring
hardwoods in the
canopy.
 Can easily make
changes to
management if
conditions change
(more flexibility to
make last-minute
changes with
harvest than with
prescribed fire).
High.
Assumption
that funding
remains
available.

17. Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.
Key Question:
 What actions can enhance the ability
of the project area to adapt to
anticipated changes and meet
management goals?

18. Resource: Adaptation
Strategies & Approaches
Resource: Climate
Change Assessments
Adaptation Workbook Process

19. Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate-Driven Changes

20. Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Climate-Driven Changes

21. Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Climate-Driven Changes
Increasing resources
needed to maintain
desired conditions

22. What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change
and
meet your goals and objectives?

23. Actions for Adaptation
Adaptation actions are designed to specifically
address climate change impacts & vulnerabilities in
order to meet climate-informed goals/objectives.
Actions might be the same/similar to what you’re
already doing, but its necessary to explore
potential modifications to address climate change.

24. Adaptation actions may not look that different from
current management actions, especially in the near term.
Same actions–
climate change
just makes them
that much more
important
Small “tweaks” that
improve effectiveness
New & different
actions to consider,
even some that may
seem wild & crazy
*individual results will vary

25. Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
A “menu” of possible
actions that allows you
to decide what is most
relevant for a particular
location and set of
conditions.
Find in: Step 4 of online workbook, Chapter 2 of FAR , or
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies

26. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

27. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Manage for Persistence:
Still be recognizable as
being the same system
Manage for Change:
System fundamentally
becomes something
different

28. Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Persistence or Change?
Increasing resources
needed to maintain
desired conditions

29. TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Persistence or Change?

30. When you might emphasize…
Persistence (Same/Similar)
 High economic or social
value associated with
current condition
 Inherent ability to buffer
changes
 Highly vulnerable, but
place represents best
chance of success
Change (Future-adapted)
 High likelihood that current
conditions will fail, making
change is necessary
 Changes are already
occurring, and can be
enhanced
 Good opportunity to try
something new

31. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Broad adaptation responses
 Sustain fundamental
ecological functions
 Reduce the impact of
existing biological stressors
 Maintain and enhance
species and structural
diversity
 Facilitate community
adjustments through
species transitions

32. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
More specific actions
 Promote diverse age
classes
 Maintain and restore
diversity of native tree
species
 Identify and move species
to sites that are likely to
provide future habitat

33. Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Prescriptive actions selected
by producer that are
designed for individual site
conditions and management
objectives

34. FEW (3)
MANY (∞)
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

35. Manage for persistence
Facilitate community adjustments through
species transitions
Identify and move species to sites that are likely
to provide future habitat
Use volunteer labor to remove barberry and
poison ivy from the forest understory and edges
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

36. Manage for change
Facilitate community adjustments through
species transitions
Establish or encourage new mixes of native
species
Increase hardwood component within
mixedwood stands for long-term conversion
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

37. Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.
Key Question:
 What actions can enhance the ability
of the project area to adapt to
anticipated changes and meet
management goals?

38. Approach – Select from the menu. Pick any that seem to
make sense and help address the challenges.
Tactic – Describe a specific action you can take.
These details should ideally answer what, where, and
how you will implement the actions.
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.
Approaches Tactics

39. Timeframe – Specify when you will implement the tactic.
For example:
• Summer 2016
• Winter 2016-7
• Within 3 years of…
• After…
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.

40. Benefits – Describe why the tactic is good.
For example:
• addresses biggest or multiple challenges
• is cheap and easy
• has co-benefits
• is likely to succeed
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.

41. Drawbacks and Barriers – Describe why it’s not so good.
For example:
• it may have negative side effects,
• Requires high cost or effort
• may not be successful
• has social, financial, or other barriers
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.

42. Practicability – Is it both effective (will meet desired
intent) and feasible (capable of being implemented)?
• High: Yes to both!
• Moderate: Yeah, but it will take some additional
effort or planning…
• Low: No, the barriers/drawbacks seem too big or the
benefits too small.
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.

43. Recommend Tactic– Given all this, is this tactic likely to
be helpful?
Also consider: trade-offs, urgency, likelihood of success,
cost, and effort…
Yes: look to integrate into plan, prescription, or other
activities
No: not useful at this time
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.

44. Example – Jerktail Mountain Woodland
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches
and tactics for implementation.
Adaptation Actions Time
Frames Benefits
Drawbacks &
Barriers
Practicability
of Tactic
Recomme
nd Tactic?Approach Tactic
2.1. Maintain
or improve
the ability of
forests to
resist pests &
pathogens.
5.2. Maintain
and restore
diversity of
native
species.
5.3. Retain
biological
Selective
thinning.
Every
20-30
years
 Providing timber
(economic
benefit).
Increases light on
the ground to
promote an
herbaceous
layer.
 Helps reduce the
risk of
pest/pathogen
outbreaks by
reducing density.
 This area has low
accessibility for
logging operations.
 Topography limits
where logging can
occur.
 Opens up the stand
for adverse human
use.
 Too much light can
shock some of the
timber and cause
epicormic sprouting
High Yes

45. Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate
effectiveness of implemented actions.
Key Question:
 How do we know if the selected
actions were effective?
 What can we learn from these
actions to inform future
management?

46. Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate
effectiveness of implemented actions.
Adaptation Monitoring Variable – What you will
measure
Criteria for Evaluation – a value or threshold that is
meaningful for assessing effectiveness or informing
future decisions
Monitoring Implementation– How you will gather the
information

47. Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate
effectiveness of implemented actions.
Example – Jerktail Mountain Woodland
Adaptation
Monitoring Variable Criteria for Evaluation Monitoring Implementation
Fuel loads reduce fuel loads; reduce
leaf litter depth by 50% by
first year after second burn
Use the National Park Service Fire
Monitoring Handbook (FMH) plot
design: 2 plots. Baseline monitoring
and return first and second growing
season after burn.
Tree basal area,
growth, and
composition
Increase in shortleaf pine,
white oak, and chinkapin
oak, and achievement of
woodland structure.
Permanent inventory plots to be
established
Shortleaf pine
regeneration
Presence of shortleaf pine
seedlings and saplings
Qualitative observation