The document outlines a methodological framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change, detailing how vulnerability is defined, measured, and analyzed using various approaches. It emphasizes the importance of assessing both biophysical and socioeconomic impacts to inform policy and adaptation strategies. Additionally, it highlights the need for frameworks that incorporate stakeholder participation and the use of a combination of top-down and bottom-up assessment methods.

1. Methodological Framework for
Assessing
Vulnerability to Climate Change
by IPCC
Hrishiraj Sarma
2nd Semester, Master of Urban Planning
13MUP03
2015
A Comprehensive Study through processes

2. 1. Introduction
1. Earth’s atmospheric temperature increased: Range 1.1o C to 2.9o C
2. Climate change: increase of green house gases, loss of ecological
balance
3. As per the different climate change reports of International Panel for
Combating Climate Change (IPCC), the climate will change
substantially in the coming few decades or earlier.
4. This change in climate will have significant multiple influences on
biophysical, socioeconomic and ecological systems.
5. Impact of climate change:- Local---National—International/Global
6. Impact on economy, particularly on poor and developing countries and
change in socio-economic status.
7. A prior knowledge of vulnerability of the system and the ways to
increase its adaptive capacity will help to combat the climate change
effectively. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments help to minimize
the adverse impacts by means of deriving adaptation or mitigation
strategies.

3. 2. Defining Vulnerability
Vulnerability in social sciences is ... “degree to which different classes
in society are differentially at risk, both in terms of the probability of
occurrence of an extreme physical event and the degree to which the
community absorbs the effects of extreme physical events and helps
different classes to recover” (O’Keefe et al, 1983).
As per IPCC’s definition of vulnerability, it is the degree to which a
system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of
climate change including climate variability and extremes.
1. vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of
climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity.
2. The vulnerability can be reduced by introducing adaptation measures
like protecting the area by means of sea wall or by retreating from the
flood prone area, etc.

4. 2.1 Why to measure Vulnerability?
1. Identify magnitude of threats, such as climate change.
2. Guide decision-making on international aid and investment.
3. Prioritize aid for climate change adaptation.
4. Identify measures to reduce vulnerability.
2.2 Classification of Vulnerability

5. 3. Methodological framework for vulnerability and
adaptation assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
• Helpful in making policy framework, Planning, Disaster management etc.
• Different policy questions require different methodological approaches.
• Methodology will be diced on available tools and data.
Methodological Framework
V = f (E, S, AC)
E = Exposure,
S = Sensitivity,
AC = Adaptive
Capacity

6. Sensitivity
The degree to which a system will respond,
either positively or negatively, to a change
in climate.
Exposure
The degree of climate stress upon
a particular unit of analysis
long-term climate conditions
climate variability, magnitude
and frequency of extreme events.
Adaptive Capacity
The degree to which adjustments in
practices, processes, or structures can
moderate or offset the potential for damage
or take advantage of opportunities created
by a given change in climate.

7. 4. Types of Framework
4.1 Based on subject matter
4.2 Based on spatial scale
4.3 Based on chronology of the assessment
• Resilience driven
• Scenario driven
• Vulnerability driven
• Local
• Regional
• District level
• State Level
• Global
• Exploratory vulnerability assessment
• Normative vulnerability assessments

8. 5.1 General classification of vulnerability assessment

9. 5. 2 IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate change and Impacts
Step 1: Definition of the problem
Step 2: Selection of the method
Step 3: Testing the Method
Step 4: Selection of Scenario
Step 5: Assessment of impacts

10. 5.3 U.S. Country Studies Program
The U.S. Country Studies Program gives methods and tools for assessing the
impacts of climate change on coastal recourses, agriculture, livestock, water
resources, human health, terrestrial vegetation wildlife and fisheries. The
program also gives guidance to adaptation. This framework is based on the
IPCC guidelines.
5.4 UNEP Handbook Methodology
The UNEP handbook methodology gives the overview of different methods and
models to design and conduct assessment studies of climate change impacts

11. 5.5 UNEP Adaptation Policy Framework
Five major principles
(a) Adaptation policy and measures are assessed in a developmental
context.
(b) Adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events are
explicitly included as a step toward reducing vulnerability to long-term
change.
(c) Adaptation occurs at different levels in society , including the local
level.
(d) The adaptation strategy and the process by which it is implemented
are equally important.
(e) Building adaptive capacity to cope with current climate is one way
of preparing society to better cope with future climate.

12. Adaptation policy framework

13. 5.6 National Policy for Action (NAPA) Guidance Programme

14. 5.7 Integrated Top Down and Bottom Up approach
• Integrated Community and Private Sector Level Assessment.
• Implementation - Utilizing mechanisms and undertaking pilot
projects

15. 6. DECIDING ON VULNERABILITY AND
ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK
1. As already mentioned there are different types of
frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation
assessment.
2. The choice of the assessment depends upon for
what purposes the assessment is being conducted.
3. The main objectives are dealing with the purpose
of assessment, the targeted users, the information
expected from the assessment, etc.

16. 6.1 Practical Considerations for Vulnerability Adaptation
Assessments
1. Understanding about the various frameworks, methods and tools
is a must in doing a vulnerability assessment.
2. This will help to select the appropriate tool for the assessment.
3. A good top down approach assessment should find out the
probable biophysical and socioeconomic impacts for a given
scenario and a bottom up approach assessment should help in
participation of all the stakeholders in the assessment process and
tries to get their opinion.
4. Yield results (i.e. profiles, assessments, analyses) that are relevant
for decision makers and information that is clear, understandable
and useful for all actors.
5. Prioritize resolving urgent problems and continuous monitoring
should be done during preparation and implementation phases.
6. Designing adaptation policies should be the main concern and
experts should try to incorporate them with existing development
plans.

17. 7. CONCLUSIONS
1. Vulnerability assessment exercises are of different types based of
the different requirements of the users.
2. A proper description of the term has to be given before conducting
the exercise.
3. Out of the different methodological frameworks for vulnerability
assessment exercises, select methods and models that are most
appropriate for the requirement.
4. Selection of framework depends upon the needs of the decision
makers and no particular framework is superior to other.

18. 7. CONCLUSION
5. Frameworks which include participation of stakeholders at each
level can avoid future conflicts.
6. Prioritizing adaptation options will help in proper resource
management.
7. A multi sectoral integrated approach of vulnerability and adaptation
assessment is better than sector specific with due consideration to
be given to specific sector under threat.
8. It is always better to adopt a combination of top-down and bottom-
up approaches.
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 1, 01 - 15, January - March 2011
Methodological Frameworks for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change
Written by Rekha S Nair and Dr. Alka Bharat
Reference