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VALUE OF INFORMATION -BULLWHIP EFFECT-
Value of Information ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Bullwhip Effect  and its Impact on the Supply Chain ,[object Object],Fig 1. Order Stream
The Bullwhip Effect  and its Impact on the Supply Chain Fig 2. Point-of-sales Data-Original Figure 3. POS Data After Removing Promotions
The Bullwhip Effect and its Impact on the Supply Chain Figure 4. POS Data After Removing Promotion & Trend
Higher Variability in Orders Placed by Computer Retailer to Manufacturer Than Actual Sales
Increasing Variability of Orders Up the Supply Chain
We Conclude …. ,[object Object]
Consequences…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cause of BW: 1.Demand Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cause of BW: 2. Lead time ,[object Object],[object Object]
Cause of BW: 3. Order Batching ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cause of BW: Variability of Price/Forward Buying   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cause of BW:   5.  Rationing & Shortage Gaming ,[object Object],[object Object]
Supply Chain in Equilibrium ,[object Object],Suppliers Producers Distributors Retailers Products & Services Products & Services Products & Services Information Cash Key:  = Inventory Levels 10 Units 10 Units 10 Units 10 Units 10 Units 10 Units ,[object Object]
Supply Chain Disrupted ,[object Object],Suppliers Producers Distributors Retailers Products & Services Products & Services Products & Services Information Flow Cash Flow Key:  = Inventory Levels 160 Units 80 Units 40 Units 80 Units 40 Units 20 Units ,[object Object]
Consider a simple supply chain… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Retailer Manufacturer D t q t L
Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect ,[object Object],[object Object]
Var(q)/Var(D): For Various Lead Times L=5 L=3 L=1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 L=5 L=3 L=1 P A lower bound on the increase in variability given as a function of p
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Multi stage SC systems
Multi-Stage Supply Chains ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Retailer Stage 1 Manufacturer Stage 2 Supplier Stage 3 q o =D q 1 q 2 L 1 L 2
SC with centralized Demand Information   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SC with centralized Demand Information (cont’) ,[object Object],[object Object]
SC with centralized Demand Information (cont’) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Decentralized Demand information ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The variance increases  multiplicatively  at each stage of the SC.
Multi-Stage Systems:Var(q k )/Var(D) Dec, k=5 Cen,  k=5 Dec, k=3 Cen , k=3 k=1 ,[object Object]
Effect of Information Sharing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Bullwhip Effect: Managerial Insights ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Coping with the BW Effect 1. Demand uncertainty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Coping with the BW Effect 2. Lead time  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Coping with the BW 3. Order Batching ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The VMI Partnership
[object Object]
Coping with the BW Effect 4.  Variability of Price ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Coping with the BW Effect 5.  Rationing & Shortage Gaming ,[object Object],[object Object]
Reducing BW effect in your firm ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reducing BW effect in your firm ,[object Object]
Information for Effective Forecasts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Collaborative Forecasting addresses these issues.
Information for Coordination of Systems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Locating Desired Products ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lead-Time Reduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Information to Address Conflicts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THANK YOU

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4 Value Of Information

Editor's Notes

  1. Each of the firms along the supply chain are producing at a constant rate because demand is easily forecasted; the supply chain is in equilibrium. Each of the firms are forecasting demand accurately.
  2. In this example, demand has increased by 10 units over equilibrium. To meet the demand, the distributor doubles inventory to meet production and to meet any other demand fluctuations. The producer further up the chain also notices the increased demand of the distributor and doubles their demand forecast to 40 units and hold 80 units in inventory to meet demand and hedge against any other demand fluctuations. The supplier (or top of the supply chain) receives the blunt of the whip effect. Costs for individual firms, in this example, increase the further you move up the supply chain,
  3. What if there are promotional activities, no transportation discounts and no inflated order? Are we still going to see an increase in variability? Consider a simple supply chain with a single retailer and a single manufacturer
  4. 零售商向制造商发出的订单需求的方差 Var(Q) 与顾客需求的方差之比满足:
  5. 供应链上第 k 阶段发出订单的方差 Var(qk) 相对于顾客需求的方差 Var(D) 的关系,
  6. Some keys to reducing costs to your firm: stabilize prices along the supply chain and be sure your information along the supply chain is timely and accurate. This will enhance decision making and allow your company to be responsive to customer demand.
  7. Every firm should look to reduce costs and help them gain competitive advantage. Reducing costs along the supply chain is a new phenomenon. Perhaps your firm can gain a competitive edge by reducing fluctuations in the information along your supply chain.